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Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

7 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Thu Mar 4 05:17:06 UTC 2021

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_dead death rate (err) death_rate deaths_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
751257
North America, North America
625458 (±11.4%) 7.61 (±5.2%) 69.821 (±8.7%) 228.47 (±7.8%)
515985
USA, USA
434092 (±13.6%) 7.59 (±5.5%) 74.653 (±10.1%) 226.44 (±10.2%)
451146
South America, South America
349562 (±0.4%) 5.88 (±3.0%) 44.305 (±0.5%) 210.43 (±0.2%)
257361
Brazil
186545 (±0.5%) 5.54 (±2.7%) 41.447 (±0.8%) 193.93 (±0.3%)
184551
South Asia, South Asia
186256 (±0.2%) 2.55 (±4.1%) 45.276 (±0.3%) 233.88 (±0.1%)
130603
Middle East, Middle East
2366501 (±270.5%) 5.38 (±3.9%) 165.135 (±42.8%) 716.28 (±60.6%)
123296
United Kingdom
48578 (±1.2%) 24.97 (±3.9%) 23.825 (±4.7%) 113.17 (±1.7%)
115101
East Europe, East Europe
1495473 (±34.0%) 8.28 (±3.4%) 133.394 (±5.4%) 622.57 (±6.8%)
104110
Africa, Africa
69172 (±1.5%) 5.80 (±1.2%) 53.038 (±1.4%) 238.46 (±0.7%)
59972
Colombia
43254 (±0.7%) 5.13 (±1.4%) 42.870 (±1.0%) 235.83 (±0.3%)
52192
Argentina
50111 (±0.9%) 4.18 (±2.6%) 40.988 (±1.0%) 272.15 (±0.2%)
50271
South Africa
24474 (±1.0%) 6.59 (±1.1%) 39.583 (±1.7%) 220.79 (±0.4%)
27650
Ukraine
1352747 (±23.3%) 3.18 (±10.4%) 131.919 (±2.7%) 685.02 (±3.2%)
22141
Belgium
79888 (±82.7%) 6.88 (±64.0%) 147.170 (±25.6%) 483.70 (±40.7%)
22043
Canada, Canada
10660 (±1.1%) 14.26 (±2.8%) 24.078 (±4.1%) 122.42 (±1.4%)
15850
Ecuador
16005 (±1.8%) 7.75 (±3.3%) 49.984 (±2.2%) 207.47 (±1.0%)
13013
Pakistan
7779 (±1.1%) 4.13 (±2.4%) 32.064 (±2.7%) 167.14 (±0.8%)
11703
Bolivia
9389 (±0.5%) 8.25 (±0.5%) 32.397 (±1.2%) 217.10 (±0.2%)
10778
Egypt
6647 (±0.5%) 9.75 (±1.0%) 31.357 (±1.2%) 175.52 (±0.3%)
10391
Bulgaria
2711101188 (±365.4%) 10.74 (±43.2%) 189.224 (±13.1%) 1171.80 (±17.8%)
10005
Switzerland
10680320 (±647.0%) 19.67 (±3.7%) 257.609 (±44.0%) 1348.77 (±63.2%)
8605
Austria
9342025258 (±923.3%) 10.52 (±53.6%) 227.178 (±28.7%) 1406.16 (±40.8%)
8423
Bangladesh
7418 (±0.6%) 2.56 (±2.3%) 43.585 (±0.9%) 208.24 (±0.3%)
8047
Tunisia
5626 (±1.1%) 6.85 (±4.6%) 32.984 (±1.0%) 316.62 (±0.1%)
6412
Guatemala
4515 (±0.8%) 6.21 (±1.3%) 39.213 (±1.3%) 211.25 (±0.4%)
5871
Panama
3774 (±1.3%) 3.90 (±5.8%) 48.026 (±1.5%) 218.66 (±0.6%)
5145
Bosnia and Herzegovina
384929090 (±208.3%) 7.87 (±6.3%) 218.389 (±8.6%) 1294.93 (±11.9%)
4805
Lebanon
3626 (±2.6%) fiterr (±err) 66.133 (±1.0%) 357.65 (±0.6%)
4333
Ireland
1865 (±0.5%) 12.64 (±2.3%) 15.001 (±2.7%) 110.38 (±0.5%)
4002
Moldova
6464 (±4.9%) 5.30 (±3.6%) 82.246 (±2.0%) 337.66 (±1.9%)
3532
Georgia
1940499885 (±477.8%) 1.39 (±6.1%) 173.368 (±15.9%) 1101.19 (±21.3%)
3225
Azerbaijan
262415825 (±485.8%) 5.40 (±3.3%) 237.740 (±19.6%) 1400.59 (±27.7%)
3218
Paraguay
2433 (±0.8%) 1.74 (±23.0%) 40.181 (±0.9%) 278.00 (±0.2%)
3200
Armenia
43336 (±47.8%) 4.98 (±3.0%) 129.054 (±8.2%) 591.77 (±10.3%)
3170
Kazakhstan
2444 (±0.6%) 1.80 (±8.1%) 27.639 (±1.6%) 212.86 (±0.3%)
3118
Dominican Republic
2552 (±0.7%) 3.36 (±5.4%) 42.581 (±1.1%) 190.57 (±0.4%)
2991
Algeria
3226 (±2.1%) 5.06 (±4.8%) 62.356 (±1.9%) 217.37 (±1.4%)
2820
Costa Rica
2509 (±0.7%) 3.04 (±4.4%) 45.017 (±0.7%) 277.03 (±0.2%)
2446
Afghanistan
1765 (±1.0%) 6.08 (±0.8%) 33.238 (±2.4%) 175.70 (±0.7%)
2386
Ethiopia
1927 (±0.6%) 2.33 (±12.2%) 38.139 (±0.9%) 240.97 (±0.2%)
2367
Denmark
925 (±3.9%) 12.02 (±3.5%) 55.170 (±7.1%) 113.44 (±5.6%)
1993
Belarus
1595 (±2.0%) 2.88 (±4.1%) 59.474 (±1.8%) 228.04 (±1.1%)
1890
Alberta, Canada
106204054 (±663.6%) 12.55 (±4.0%) 280.693 (±26.7%) 1630.14 (±38.6%)
1863
Kenya
3307 (±4.5%) fiterr (±err) 69.973 (±2.2%) 318.77 (±1.6%)
1835
Albania
16409 (±23.8%) 0.96 (±67.0%) 115.581 (±4.1%) 552.96 (±4.8%)
1638
Latvia
1992948 (±245.2%) fiterr (±err) 124.598 (±14.8%) 769.90 (±17.0%)
1616
Kosovo
1914 (±6.0%) 6.86 (±3.1%) 62.673 (±3.6%) 290.23 (±2.3%)
1580
Oman
1705 (±0.5%) 1.18 (±7.6%) 46.172 (±0.6%) 238.74 (±0.2%)
1365
British Columbia, Canada
64162765 (±1005.4%) 7.62 (±29.9%) 299.327 (±41.8%) 1719.33 (±60.9%)
1253
United Arab Emirates
633 (±2.5%) 2.50 (±7.0%) 52.529 (±3.6%) 169.33 (±2.0%)
1141
Malaysia
18210260 (±725.4%) 10.26 (±3.4%) 308.928 (±33.3%) 1738.19 (±48.5%)
951
Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania
964 (±1.3%) 6.17 (±3.6%) 24.066 (±4.1%) 219.49 (±0.5%)
898
Manitoba, Canada
1399 (±4.3%) 4.75 (±36.0%) 39.924 (±2.0%) 351.39 (±0.5%)
711
Congo (Kinshasa)
433 (±3.4%) 6.51 (±1.6%) 51.752 (±4.2%) 197.59 (±2.2%)
665
Mozambique
236 (±2.0%) 9.60 (±8.1%) 52.722 (±1.3%) 300.63 (±0.5%)
641
Luxembourg
1845481 (±632.8%) 9.58 (±3.6%) 258.112 (±37.7%) 1394.00 (±53.9%)
623
Norway
289 (±1.1%) 5.61 (±3.5%) 19.001 (±5.2%) 101.92 (±1.6%)
551
Cameroon
432 (±0.2%) 2.50 (±3.6%) 25.750 (±0.8%) 144.43 (±0.2%)
510
Angola
493 (±0.8%) 4.59 (±5.8%) 47.639 (±0.7%) 270.87 (±0.2%)
453
Bahrain
383 (±0.8%) 0.81 (±10.8%) 44.096 (±1.1%) 216.27 (±0.4%)
432
Jamaica
307 (±0.9%) fiterr (±err) 32.507 (±1.3%) 277.18 (±0.2%)
334
Uganda
470 (±5.7%) fiterr (±err) 57.261 (±2.9%) 327.60 (±1.4%)
332
Botswana
50 (±1.9%) fiterr (±err) 45.293 (±1.6%) 286.47 (±0.5%)
319
Malta
3677 (±26.7%) fiterr (±err) 92.880 (±4.5%) 508.98 (±4.2%)
315
Belize
1344 (±13.1%) 6.73 (±6.5%) 67.664 (±3.3%) 410.56 (±2.2%)
295
Lesotho
46 (±0.9%) 19.40 (±4.8%) 28.082 (±2.5%) 217.24 (±0.4%)
265
Rwanda
162 (±12.2%) 5.70 (±11.9%) 71.948 (±5.0%) 347.71 (±3.7%)
232
Cyprus
13725250 (±1073.5%) 15.06 (±3.6%) 271.155 (±42.1%) 1585.94 (±60.8%)
197
Guyana
199 (±2.0%) 1.27 (±43.6%) 45.050 (±2.0%) 266.87 (±0.6%)
179
Bahamas
183 (±1.2%) 3.71 (±5.5%) 35.061 (±1.9%) 257.16 (±0.3%)
164
Guadeloupe, France
161 (±1.5%) fiterr (±err) 26.739 (±3.1%) 274.31 (±0.3%)
148
Cabo Verde
140 (±1.7%) 2.51 (±10.4%) 48.723 (±1.6%) 254.92 (±0.6%)
144
Comoros
7 (±0.6%) 23.67 (±29.4%) 14.478 (±3.8%) 159.24 (±0.4%)
143
Burkina Faso
61 (±0.8%) 11.20 (±3.5%) 17.859 (±4.2%) 99.57 (±1.2%)
140
Chad
97 (±1.4%) 12.40 (±2.1%) 37.226 (±5.0%) 120.41 (±2.9%)
139
Trinidad and Tobago
125 (±0.9%) fiterr (±err) 27.904 (±1.9%) 255.45 (±0.2%)
128
Congo (Brazzaville)
100 (±0.8%) 2.29 (±6.7%) 35.218 (±1.8%) 179.14 (±0.5%)
110
Andorra
101 (±9.9%) 8.71 (±3.6%) 81.708 (±11.1%) 129.69 (±17.7%)
92
Equatorial Guinea
86 (±0.6%) 1.89 (±3.7%) 23.759 (±2.0%) 174.98 (±0.4%)
91
Guinea
81 (±0.4%) 1.26 (±4.2%) 41.772 (±0.7%) 177.52 (±0.3%)
86
Channel Islands, United Kingdom
48 (±0.3%) 12.38 (±1.9%) 11.753 (±2.0%) 106.49 (±0.3%)
85
Liberia
85 (±0.7%) 5.42 (±2.7%) 30.144 (±2.0%) 157.79 (±0.6%)
74
Aruba, Netherlands
49 (±1.0%) fiterr (±err) 32.333 (±1.8%) 257.10 (±0.3%)
70
Benin
42 (±0.3%) 3.22 (±16.9%) 21.129 (±1.2%) 178.07 (±0.2%)
65
Nova Scotia, Canada
64 (±0.1%) 5.88 (±0.9%) 12.121 (±0.8%) 118.13 (±0.1%)
63
Central African Republic
62 (±0.2%) 1.21 (±11.4%) 13.191 (±1.5%) 171.23 (±0.1%)
62
Maldives
53 (±1.0%) 1.54 (±6.8%) 47.298 (±1.3%) 218.67 (±0.5%)
54
New South Wales, Australia
52 (±0.2%) 1.40 (±3.9%) 15.896 (±1.3%) 99.64 (±0.3%)
52
Reunion, France
83 (±6.6%) 5.59 (±5.0%) 60.781 (±3.4%) 321.14 (±1.9%)
48
Guinea-Bissau
44 (±0.5%) 1.69 (±24.0%) 33.569 (±1.3%) 173.18 (±0.4%)
45
Martinique, France
180101 (±560.3%) fiterr (±err) 300.302 (±34.5%) 1590.59 (±50.3%)
36
Barbados
7 (±0.2%) 25.37 (±2.7%) 9.328 (±1.7%) 99.02 (±0.2%)
30
Sao Tome and Principe
16 (±0.5%) 3.81 (±12.6%) 20.205 (±2.9%) 132.99 (±0.6%)
28
New Brunswick, Canada
11746 (±556.2%) 14.13 (±3.5%) 217.828 (±39.5%) 1154.85 (±54.8%)
22
Henan, China
22 (±0.9%) 1.80 (±8.1%) 9.103 (±8.2%) 22.68 (±10.6%)

For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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