Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.
Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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Actualisation date: Thu Dec 3 05:16:07 UTC 2020
| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_dead | death rate (err) | death_rate | deaths_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 1480502 World total, World total | 1602109 (±1.7%) |  | 4.33 (±5.1%) |  |  | 53.174 (±1.6%) | 200.26 (±1.0%) |
| 1475759 World without China, World without China | 1606889 (±1.7%) |  | 4.30 (±5.1%) |  |  | 53.462 (±1.6%) | 201.39 (±1.1%) |
| 406126 North America, North America | 401110 (±1.2%) |  | 5.44 (±5.1%) |  |  | 45.788 (±1.5%) | 175.04 (±0.8%) |
| 311285 South America, South America | 330716 (±0.3%) |  | 4.51 (±3.1%) |  |  | 42.058 (±0.4%) | 205.77 (±0.1%) |
| 275750 Europe, Europe | 163206 (±1.4%) |  | 14.48 (±3.5%) |  |  | 22.779 (±5.0%) | 104.58 (±2.0%) |
| 270642 USA, USA | 251128 (±1.4%) |  | 5.45 (±5.2%) |  |  | 42.965 (±2.1%) | 156.40 (±1.1%) |
| 173817 Brazil | 175226 (±0.4%) |  | 4.17 (±2.8%) |  |  | 38.675 (±0.6%) | 188.84 (±0.2%) |
| 156458 South Asia, South Asia | 184110 (±0.4%) |  | 2.50 (±4.3%) |  |  | 44.854 (±0.4%) | 232.96 (±0.1%) |
| 91996 Middle East, Middle East | 156483 (±3.6%) |  | 5.02 (±4.2%) |  |  | 70.412 (±1.8%) | 277.18 (±1.6%) |
| 56361 Italy | 37441 (±0.8%) |  | 18.77 (±2.4%) |  |  | 17.280 (±3.6%) | 95.20 (±1.1%) |
| 54178 East Europe, East Europe | 148875 (±12.6%) |  | 4.68 (±3.1%) |  |  | 83.387 (±4.3%) | 349.34 (±4.4%) |
| 52049 Africa, Africa | 55145 (±0.9%) |  | 3.20 (±1.5%) |  |  | 44.497 (±1.0%) | 217.51 (±0.4%) |
| 45511 Spain | 31794 (±1.0%) |  | 12.33 (±3.5%) |  |  | 16.305 (±4.7%) | 96.86 (±1.3%) |
| 38928 Argentina | 58830 (±2.2%) |  | 3.65 (±3.2%) |  |  | 45.497 (±1.5%) | 282.05 (±0.5%) |
| 25954 South-East Asia, South-East Asia | 41562 (±1.2%) |  | 3.59 (±6.7%) |  |  | 60.604 (±0.7%) | 268.47 (±0.5%) |
| 21644 South Africa | 21080 (±0.5%) |  | 2.91 (±1.3%) |  |  | 32.812 (±0.9%) | 211.48 (±0.2%) |
| 17081 Indonesia | 25358 (±0.8%) |  | 4.33 (±2.9%) |  |  | 58.569 (±0.5%) | 261.23 (±0.3%) |
| 16786 Belgium | 10768 (±1.1%) |  | 18.08 (±3.5%) |  |  | 15.534 (±5.6%) | 105.36 (±1.3%) |
| 13501 Ecuador | 17095 (±3.2%) |  | 7.30 (±4.4%) |  |  | 52.432 (±2.9%) | 214.26 (±1.7%) |
| 12229 Canada, Canada | 9725 (±0.6%) |  | 8.82 (±2.3%) |  |  | 20.118 (±2.3%) | 123.65 (±0.6%) |
| 8963 Bolivia | 9635 (±0.8%) |  | 6.44 (±0.6%) |  |  | 33.441 (±1.4%) | 218.39 (±0.3%) |
| 8418 Philippines | 14450 (±2.9%) |  | 0.87 (±22.5%) |  |  | 60.423 (±1.6%) | 274.39 (±1.1%) |
| 7385 East Asia, East Asia | 6526 (±0.6%) |  | 5.66 (±2.0%) |  |  | 23.529 (±2.1%) | 65.14 (±1.7%) |
| 6675 Bangladesh | 6746 (±0.4%) |  | 2.20 (±2.6%) |  |  | 39.587 (±0.6%) | 200.51 (±0.2%) |
| 6666 Egypt | 6327 (±0.4%) |  | 6.18 (±1.0%) |  |  | 28.712 (±0.9%) | 173.12 (±0.2%) |
| 4743 China total, China total | 4684 (±0.4%) |  | 5.51 (±0.6%) |  |  | 16.078 (±2.1%) | 51.28 (±1.4%) |
| 4512 Hubei, China | 4504 (±0.4%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 15.939 (±2.1%) | 51.10 (±1.4%) |
| 4188 Bulgaria | 652313075 (±610.2%) |  | 9.64 (±9.1%) |  |  | 189.178 (±23.1%) | 1146.66 (±31.9%) |
| 3325 Austria | 52171466 (±1492.1%) |  | 13.42 (±3.4%) |  |  | 283.626 (±72.2%) | 1579.23 (±105.2%) |
| 3260 Tunisia | 8484 (±6.5%) |  | 2.63 (±15.8%) |  |  | 39.505 (±2.5%) | 331.84 (±0.8%) |
| 3098 Panama | 3150 (±0.7%) |  | 2.48 (±6.6%) |  |  | 40.288 (±0.9%) | 203.29 (±0.3%) |
| 2918 Honduras | 3046 (±0.4%) |  | 3.42 (±3.7%) |  |  | 37.669 (±0.6%) | 208.95 (±0.2%) |
| 2877 Israel | 8271 (±9.6%) |  | 1.46 (±43.8%) |  |  | 70.988 (±3.6%) | 331.04 (±3.0%) |
| 2727 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 72330171 (±285.3%) |  | 1.66 (±44.8%) |  |  | 200.456 (±13.3%) | 1161.35 (±18.4%) |
| 2517 Greece | 354673080 (±903.4%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 171.983 (±34.4%) | 1056.06 (±46.4%) |
| 2447 Algeria | 2522 (±1.5%) |  | 4.98 (±4.8%) |  |  | 51.631 (±1.7%) | 186.97 (±1.0%) |
| 2434 Kazakhstan | 2286 (±0.4%) |  | 1.50 (±9.6%) |  |  | 24.222 (±1.2%) | 210.78 (±0.2%) |
| 2333 Dominican Republic | 2641 (±1.0%) |  | 2.75 (±5.6%) |  |  | 43.980 (±1.3%) | 193.53 (±0.5%) |
| 2323 Moldova | 3986 (±4.2%) |  | 4.24 (±4.3%) |  |  | 68.367 (±2.1%) | 279.80 (±1.8%) |
| 2193 Armenia | 5447 (±20.7%) |  | 3.78 (±2.6%) |  |  | 82.507 (±7.3%) | 341.95 (±7.5%) |
| 1797 Afghanistan | 1565 (±0.5%) |  | 4.62 (±0.7%) |  |  | 26.410 (±1.3%) | 169.74 (±0.3%) |
| 1792 North Macedonia | 33545 (±64.5%) |  | 5.80 (±9.1%) |  |  | 128.626 (±10.0%) | 593.06 (±13.0%) |
| 1771 Paraguay | 2027 (±0.4%) |  | 0.85 (±41.7%) |  |  | 34.612 (±0.4%) | 268.29 (±0.1%) |
| 1709 Ethiopia | 1758 (±0.6%) |  | 1.95 (±13.9%) |  |  | 34.549 (±0.8%) | 235.73 (±0.2%) |
| 1490 Slovenia | 101904239 (±778.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 131.839 (±32.5%) | 837.75 (±40.4%) |
| 1474 Kenya | 3433 (±8.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 71.253 (±3.3%) | 323.25 (±2.8%) |
| 1433 Azerbaijan | 2241 (±14.8%) |  | 1.74 (±12.8%) |  |  | 71.814 (±6.6%) | 299.27 (±5.9%) |
| 1430 Oman | 1739 (±0.9%) |  | 1.06 (±8.9%) |  |  | 46.883 (±0.8%) | 240.37 (±0.3%) |
| 1196 Libya | 1759 (±0.9%) |  | 1.36 (±13.4%) |  |  | 46.307 (±0.6%) | 285.18 (±0.2%) |
| 1176 Nigeria | 1160 (±0.1%) |  | 2.87 (±5.2%) |  |  | 29.474 (±0.3%) | 165.66 (±0.1%) |
| 1166 Belarus | 1232 (±1.2%) |  | 1.83 (±4.0%) |  |  | 48.749 (±1.4%) | 199.34 (±0.7%) |
| 1033 Lebanon | 3537 (±5.8%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 65.718 (±1.8%) | 355.85 (±1.3%) |
| 942 Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania | 980 (±1.2%) |  | 6.53 (±3.6%) |  |  | 24.847 (±3.0%) | 219.71 (±0.4%) |
| 846 Denmark | 657 (±0.6%) |  | 4.73 (±3.1%) |  |  | 16.900 (±2.9%) | 102.56 (±0.8%) |
| 822 Albania | 1740 (±7.1%) |  | 2.02 (±43.1%) |  |  | 69.758 (±2.8%) | 320.19 (±2.3%) |
| 576 United Arab Emirates | 489 (±1.4%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 36.427 (±3.0%) | 142.84 (±1.3%) |
| 551 Alberta, Canada | 4547 (±70.7%) |  | 4.44 (±3.5%) |  |  | 136.045 (±14.6%) | 549.77 (±20.6%) |
| 526 Korea - South | 576 (±4.8%) |  | 3.64 (±2.3%) |  |  | 62.193 (±5.5%) | 141.35 (±5.7%) |
| 519 Lithuania | 46027252 (±1196.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 228.920 (±47.6%) | 1345.46 (±67.9%) |
| 457 British Columbia, Canada | 331 (±4.1%) |  | 9.09 (±4.7%) |  |  | 52.765 (±5.3%) | 150.52 (±3.7%) |
| 441 Cameroon | 428 (±0.2%) |  | 2.05 (±4.0%) |  |  | 25.310 (±0.7%) | 143.97 (±0.2%) |
| 422 Syria | 649 (±2.4%) |  | 6.17 (±4.9%) |  |  | 51.347 (±1.3%) | 287.55 (±0.6%) |
| 363 Malaysia | 2709235 (±1104.8%) |  | 3.75 (±3.2%) |  |  | 299.969 (±61.6%) | 1616.36 (±90.3%) |
| 350 Angola | 534 (±1.5%) |  | 4.34 (±6.1%) |  |  | 49.769 (±1.0%) | 276.77 (±0.4%) |
| 341 Bahrain | 397 (±1.4%) |  | 0.65 (±11.5%) |  |  | 45.429 (±1.4%) | 219.27 (±0.6%) |
| 335 Congo (Kinshasa) | 319 (±0.6%) |  | 3.08 (±2.6%) |  |  | 35.628 (±1.1%) | 168.53 (±0.4%) |
| 334 Norway | 267 (±0.5%) |  | 3.29 (±3.2%) |  |  | 14.521 (±2.7%) | 99.82 (±0.6%) |
| 330 Luxembourg | 7366 (±354.1%) |  | 5.66 (±3.3%) |  |  | 199.192 (±52.8%) | 841.17 (±79.9%) |
| 328 Manitoba, Canada | 56438397 (±335.4%) |  | 3.37 (±32.1%) |  |  | 124.351 (±12.7%) | 813.06 (±15.6%) |
| 258 Jamaica | 287 (±1.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 30.182 (±1.9%) | 274.48 (±0.3%) |
| 251 Madagascar | 248 (±0.3%) |  | 1.75 (±9.0%) |  |  | 24.980 (±0.8%) | 208.55 (±0.1%) |
| 233 Haiti | 236 (±0.2%) |  | 3.01 (±2.3%) |  |  | 29.307 (±0.4%) | 173.84 (±0.1%) |
| 210 Latvia | 9152947 (±943.3%) |  | 13.48 (±3.3%) |  |  | 205.544 (±40.8%) | 1203.96 (±56.9%) |
| 205 Uganda | 526 (±16.5%) |  | 4.21 (±16.3%) |  |  | 59.997 (±6.1%) | 336.53 (±3.7%) |
| 163 Bahamas | 216 (±3.2%) |  | 3.81 (±5.9%) |  |  | 40.672 (±2.7%) | 266.07 (±0.8%) |
| 161 Nicaragua | 157 (±0.3%) |  | 3.78 (±5.8%) |  |  | 29.033 (±0.7%) | 169.43 (±0.2%) |
| 160 Mali | 133 (±0.4%) |  | 6.03 (±2.8%) |  |  | 21.906 (±1.3%) | 135.40 (±0.3%) |
| 151 Guyana | 322 (±7.1%) |  | 1.95 (±33.6%) |  |  | 59.470 (±3.3%) | 304.25 (±2.1%) |
| 149 Guadeloupe, France | 178 (±4.1%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 30.240 (±4.6%) | 277.30 (±0.6%) |
| 148 Belize | 6577931 (±197.7%) |  | 5.91 (±5.9%) |  |  | 154.201 (±8.7%) | 940.46 (±11.3%) |
| 141 Malta | 7855928 (±293.9%) |  | 5.95 (±15.7%) |  |  | 173.777 (±12.6%) | 1043.11 (±17.0%) |
| 120 Trinidad and Tobago | 122 (±1.5%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 26.933 (±2.6%) | 254.69 (±0.3%) |
| 114 Congo (Brazzaville) | 98 (±1.1%) |  | 2.12 (±7.7%) |  |  | 34.577 (±2.0%) | 178.29 (±0.6%) |
| 106 Cabo Verde | 182 (±3.7%) |  | 2.35 (±10.2%) |  |  | 56.303 (±2.1%) | 277.02 (±1.2%) |
| 83 Liberia | 86 (±0.9%) |  | 5.45 (±3.1%) |  |  | 30.571 (±2.2%) | 158.36 (±0.7%) |
| 76 Andorra | 58 (±1.0%) |  | 6.73 (±3.2%) |  |  | 16.303 (±5.6%) | 99.41 (±1.4%) |
| 75 Niger | 69 (±0.1%) |  | 7.04 (±1.3%) |  |  | 16.039 (±0.7%) | 114.48 (±0.1%) |
| 74 Sierra Leone | 265014 (±3857.3%) |  | 3.89 (±2.1%) |  |  | 410.713 (±258.4%) | 2096.99 (±388.1%) |
| 68 Burkina Faso | 58 (±0.6%) |  | 5.84 (±3.2%) |  |  | 15.636 (±3.4%) | 98.66 (±0.8%) |
| 65 Nova Scotia, Canada | 64 (±0.1%) |  | 6.05 (±0.8%) |  |  | 12.076 (±0.8%) | 118.10 (±0.1%) |
| 64 Togo | 109414117 (±967.0%) |  | 3.34 (±9.3%) |  |  | 325.768 (±30.9%) | 1941.70 (±46.1%) |
| 63 Central African Republic | 62 (±0.3%) |  | 1.19 (±13.4%) |  |  | 13.026 (±1.6%) | 171.18 (±0.1%) |
| 61 Djibouti | 61 (±0.2%) |  | 1.58 (±5.9%) |  |  | 16.378 (±0.8%) | 152.20 (±0.1%) |
| 53 New South Wales, Australia | 51 (±0.3%) |  | 1.40 (±4.3%) |  |  | 15.738 (±1.3%) | 99.53 (±0.3%) |
| 49 Mayotte, France | 43 (±0.5%) |  | 1.77 (±8.2%) |  |  | 25.023 (±1.6%) | 140.07 (±0.5%) |
| 48 Channel Islands, United Kingdom | 47 (±0.2%) |  | 7.53 (±1.2%) |  |  | 11.472 (±1.1%) | 106.36 (±0.2%) |
| 46 San Marino | 42 (±0.1%) |  | 6.32 (±1.9%) |  |  | 10.653 (±1.0%) | 81.87 (±0.2%) |
| 45 Aruba, Netherlands | 50 (±2.0%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 32.533 (±2.5%) | 257.41 (±0.4%) |
| 44 Guinea-Bissau | 43 (±0.7%) |  | 1.51 (±28.2%) |  |  | 32.428 (±1.5%) | 171.81 (±0.4%) |
| 43 Benin | 42 (±0.3%) |  | 2.11 (±18.5%) |  |  | 20.496 (±1.2%) | 177.74 (±0.2%) |
| 41 Martinique, France | 100721 (±768.5%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 282.302 (±50.1%) | 1473.80 (±73.3%) |
| 40 Reunion, France | 678 (±48.5%) |  | 4.95 (±4.6%) |  |  | 100.533 (±8.0%) | 506.67 (±8.7%) |
| 35 Vietnam | 35 (±0.3%) |  | 6.62 (±3.6%) |  |  | 13.341 (±1.4%) | 221.42 (±0.1%) |
| 34 Botswana | 41 (±2.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 39.754 (±2.3%) | 274.45 (±0.6%) |
| 25 Sint Maarten, Netherlands | 31 (±7.8%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 74.229 (±8.9%) | 124.93 (±12.3%) |
For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.