Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.
Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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Actualisation date: Sat Jul 11 04:15:12 UTC 2020
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| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_dead | death rate (err) | death_rate | deaths_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 554924 World total, World total | 563719 (±1.3%) |  | 8.07 (±4.4%) |  |  | 23.539 (±1.6%) | 119.95 (±0.5%) |
| 550283 World without China, World without China | 557575 (±1.3%) |  | 8.18 (±4.5%) |  |  | 23.390 (±1.7%) | 120.34 (±0.6%) |
| 179691 North America, North America | 179688 (±1.1%) |  | 8.57 (±3.8%) |  |  | 21.579 (±1.5%) | 121.85 (±0.4%) |
| 136323 Europe, Europe | 133109 (±0.2%) |  | 11.74 (±1.2%) |  |  | 13.847 (±0.5%) | 97.94 (±0.1%) |
| 133290 USA, USA | 128735 (±0.6%) |  | 7.49 (±3.7%) |  |  | 18.325 (±1.1%) | 114.27 (±0.2%) |
| 95471 South America, South America | 157561 (±0.8%) |  | 4.59 (±3.8%) |  |  | 28.619 (±0.4%) | 166.74 (±0.2%) |
| 69184 Brazil | 97153 (±0.8%) |  | 4.91 (±3.6%) |  |  | 26.098 (±0.5%) | 158.39 (±0.2%) |
| 44602 United Kingdom | 43218 (±0.4%) |  | 16.72 (±1.1%) |  |  | 16.038 (±1.1%) | 108.35 (±0.2%) |
| 34926 Italy | 34344 (±0.2%) |  | 15.56 (±1.2%) |  |  | 14.564 (±0.7%) | 92.74 (±0.2%) |
| 33526 Mexico | 71670 (±2.1%) |  | 13.97 (±2.5%) |  |  | 30.510 (±0.9%) | 179.99 (±0.5%) |
| 29916 South Asia, South Asia | 98486 (±6.8%) |  | 3.38 (±4.7%) |  |  | 35.219 (±2.2%) | 198.55 (±1.5%) |
| 29889 France | 29250 (±0.2%) |  | 16.02 (±0.9%) |  |  | 12.133 (±0.8%) | 99.18 (±0.1%) |
| 28752 Spain | 27810 (±0.3%) |  | 12.62 (±1.2%) |  |  | 12.061 (±1.0%) | 93.86 (±0.2%) |
| 24547 Middle East, Middle East | 26781 (±3.6%) |  | 4.56 (±4.6%) |  |  | 29.136 (±3.2%) | 127.25 (±1.7%) |
| 21604 India | 77855 (±8.3%) |  | 3.89 (±4.3%) |  |  | 35.756 (±2.6%) | 202.39 (±1.7%) |
| 12619 East Europe, East Europe | 17577 (±0.8%) |  | 2.65 (±5.1%) |  |  | 26.549 (±0.6%) | 156.72 (±0.2%) |
| 12366 Africa, Africa | 76895 (±10.7%) |  | 3.58 (±5.3%) |  |  | 47.339 (±2.5%) | 235.16 (±2.4%) |
| 12305 Iran | 11372 (±2.4%) |  | 8.00 (±3.1%) |  |  | 24.855 (±3.2%) | 107.69 (±1.3%) |
| 11314 Peru | 19663 (±1.9%) |  | 4.48 (±3.4%) |  |  | 29.751 (±1.0%) | 168.59 (±0.5%) |
| 10826 Russia | 14935 (±0.9%) |  | 2.63 (±5.2%) |  |  | 25.886 (±0.6%) | 157.10 (±0.2%) |
| 9778 Belgium | 9638 (±0.2%) |  | 16.71 (±0.6%) |  |  | 12.118 (±0.6%) | 103.18 (±0.1%) |
| 9057 Germany | 8870 (±0.2%) |  | 5.41 (±2.5%) |  |  | 13.501 (±0.6%) | 103.97 (±0.1%) |
| 8797 Canada, Canada | 8893 (±0.2%) |  | 9.28 (±2.2%) |  |  | 16.981 (±0.5%) | 121.01 (±0.1%) |
| 6682 Chile | 10062 (±4.4%) |  | 1.57 (±28.8%) |  |  | 21.180 (±2.9%) | 169.73 (±0.7%) |
| 6137 Netherlands | 6081 (±0.1%) |  | 13.33 (±1.2%) |  |  | 13.373 (±0.4%) | 99.85 (±0.1%) |
| 5918 East Asia, East Asia | 5962 (±1.1%) |  | 5.90 (±1.5%) |  |  | 19.653 (±2.8%) | 60.43 (±1.7%) |
| 5609 Quebec, Canada | 5725 (±0.3%) |  | 10.80 (±2.6%) |  |  | 17.244 (±0.6%) | 123.55 (±0.1%) |
| 5500 Sweden | 5466 (±0.6%) |  | 10.42 (±4.1%) |  |  | 18.664 (±1.1%) | 116.44 (±0.2%) |
| 5300 Turkey | 5015 (±0.5%) |  | 3.60 (±3.6%) |  |  | 15.234 (±1.2%) | 109.14 (±0.2%) |
| 5058 Pakistan | 12630 (±5.8%) |  | 2.98 (±6.3%) |  |  | 32.827 (±2.3%) | 185.26 (±1.4%) |
| 4939 South-East Asia, South-East Asia | 6253 (±2.9%) |  | 4.96 (±4.7%) |  |  | 29.838 (±2.2%) | 141.34 (±1.1%) |
| 4900 Ecuador | 4830 (±1.1%) |  | 9.74 (±6.6%) |  |  | 18.819 (±1.8%) | 129.03 (±0.3%) |
| 4791 Colombia | 18429445 (±89.3%) |  | 4.98 (±4.8%) |  |  | 85.009 (±5.3%) | 492.55 (±6.8%) |
| 4641 China total, China total | 4595 (±1.0%) |  | 5.61 (±1.0%) |  |  | 15.404 (±3.2%) | 50.54 (±2.0%) |
| 4512 Hubei, China | 4483 (±1.0%) |  | 6.72 (±1.2%) |  |  | 15.778 (±3.3%) | 50.92 (±2.0%) |
| 3720 South Africa | 16168 (±7.0%) |  | 1.78 (±12.7%) |  |  | 35.349 (±1.9%) | 210.02 (±1.3%) |
| 3617 Egypt | 128020 (±37.1%) |  | 4.69 (±4.7%) |  |  | 59.649 (±5.1%) | 312.71 (±5.6%) |
| 3417 Indonesia | 6674 (±6.0%) |  | 7.74 (±7.2%) |  |  | 36.971 (±2.7%) | 172.20 (±2.0%) |
| 2882 Iraq | 81117921 (±298.1%) |  | 6.10 (±47.7%) |  |  | 76.608 (±13.9%) | 475.41 (±17.3%) |
| 2750 Ontario, Canada | 2741 (±0.3%) |  | 8.97 (±2.4%) |  |  | 16.011 (±0.6%) | 117.84 (±0.1%) |
| 2238 Bangladesh | 5661 (±3.9%) |  | 2.63 (±10.8%) |  |  | 32.808 (±1.5%) | 187.28 (±0.9%) |
| 2100 Saudi Arabia | 18688 (±14.1%) |  | 1.63 (±8.2%) |  |  | 45.913 (±2.9%) | 244.29 (±2.6%) |
| 1966 Switzerland | 1943 (±0.1%) |  | 6.57 (±2.5%) |  |  | 11.709 (±0.4%) | 96.33 (±0.1%) |
| 1834 Romania | 1739 (±1.3%) |  | 9.09 (±2.7%) |  |  | 20.832 (±2.0%) | 119.11 (±0.5%) |
| 1743 Ireland | 1715 (±0.3%) |  | 6.88 (±1.3%) |  |  | 12.512 (±1.0%) | 108.94 (±0.1%) |
| 1720 Argentina | 18814 (±19.6%) |  | 2.83 (±20.0%) |  |  | 53.570 (±3.7%) | 267.04 (±3.9%) |
| 1644 Portugal | 1574 (±0.6%) |  | 5.62 (±3.1%) |  |  | 16.873 (±1.3%) | 106.98 (±0.3%) |
| 1638 Bolivia | 120330 (±35.4%) |  | 4.77 (±4.4%) |  |  | 59.443 (±4.0%) | 328.74 (±4.4%) |
| 1551 Poland | 1546 (±1.3%) |  | 6.68 (±3.9%) |  |  | 21.037 (±1.9%) | 121.30 (±0.5%) |
| 1344 Ukraine | 1699 (±2.0%) |  | 4.95 (±4.9%) |  |  | 27.293 (±1.5%) | 147.14 (±0.6%) |
| 1314 Philippines | 1329 (±1.0%) |  | 6.64 (±7.8%) |  |  | 21.748 (±1.5%) | 118.11 (±0.4%) |
| 1092 Guatemala | 2588 (±5.5%) |  | 6.17 (±7.1%) |  |  | 26.055 (±2.2%) | 187.19 (±0.9%) |
| 988 Algeria | 1001 (±2.8%) |  | 7.86 (±3.9%) |  |  | 24.193 (±3.5%) | 118.03 (±1.2%) |
| 982 Japan | 985 (±0.3%) |  | 5.02 (±5.2%) |  |  | 15.688 (±0.8%) | 114.46 (±0.1%) |
| 957 Afghanistan | 2717768003 (±651.4%) |  | 2.92 (±2.9%) |  |  | 130.805 (±19.4%) | 807.68 (±28.0%) |
| 842 Dominican Republic | 905 (±3.3%) |  | 4.43 (±6.0%) |  |  | 26.636 (±3.3%) | 128.30 (±1.3%) |
| 839 Panama | 2645 (±20.9%) |  | 5.57 (±5.9%) |  |  | 45.584 (±6.5%) | 206.95 (±6.2%) |
| 706 Austria | 679 (±0.3%) |  | 4.40 (±1.1%) |  |  | 12.266 (±1.1%) | 98.25 (±0.2%) |
| 704 Honduras | 59232 (±72.6%) |  | 5.71 (±10.8%) |  |  | 69.942 (±8.1%) | 366.56 (±9.7%) |
| 689 Nigeria | 1036 (±2.6%) |  | 3.96 (±5.5%) |  |  | 27.724 (±1.6%) | 161.02 (±0.7%) |
| 641 Sudan | 733 (±1.4%) |  | 7.74 (±3.2%) |  |  | 19.024 (±1.6%) | 151.97 (±0.3%) |
| 624 Moldova | 961 (±2.8%) |  | 6.07 (±5.7%) |  |  | 30.598 (±1.7%) | 158.61 (±0.9%) |
| 609 Denmark | 598 (±0.3%) |  | 4.96 (±3.3%) |  |  | 13.859 (±0.8%) | 100.24 (±0.1%) |
| 591 Hungary | 583 (±0.3%) |  | 15.02 (±1.3%) |  |  | 15.673 (±0.7%) | 113.19 (±0.1%) |
| 535 Armenia | 1130 (±6.4%) |  | 1.71 (±32.2%) |  |  | 28.986 (±2.8%) | 179.92 (±1.3%) |
| 449 Belarus | 587 (±1.8%) |  | 1.61 (±9.2%) |  |  | 27.666 (±1.4%) | 148.53 (±0.6%) |
| 382 Kuwait | 409 (±0.6%) |  | 1.56 (±17.6%) |  |  | 18.634 (±0.7%) | 143.97 (±0.1%) |
| 362 North Macedonia | 13066 (±74.6%) |  | 10.10 (±8.6%) |  |  | 70.350 (±10.2%) | 345.71 (±12.5%) |
| 361 Yemen | 471 (±3.9%) |  | 25.27 (±71.9%) |  |  | 19.246 (±3.2%) | 164.53 (±0.6%) |
| 359 Cameroon | 431 (±3.8%) |  | 2.52 (±16.2%) |  |  | 25.690 (±3.2%) | 144.47 (±1.1%) |
| 353 Czechia | 339 (±0.5%) |  | 4.24 (±3.7%) |  |  | 14.410 (±1.5%) | 103.29 (±0.3%) |
| 352 Serbia | 277 (±1.1%) |  | 3.18 (±5.4%) |  |  | 15.993 (±2.8%) | 107.24 (±0.5%) |
| 348 Israel | 310 (±0.6%) |  | 2.07 (±4.1%) |  |  | 14.215 (±1.8%) | 104.48 (±0.3%) |
| 329 Finland | 328 (±0.3%) |  | 5.46 (±3.2%) |  |  | 12.735 (±1.0%) | 110.55 (±0.1%) |
| 328 United Arab Emirates | 316 (±0.5%) |  | 1.16 (±14.5%) |  |  | 15.676 (±1.2%) | 121.92 (±0.2%) |
| 288 Korea - South | 277 (±0.2%) |  | 2.68 (±1.6%) |  |  | 14.277 (±0.7%) | 80.20 (±0.2%) |
| 284 Azerbaijan | 27817139 (±185.9%) |  | 5.10 (±10.2%) |  |  | 108.999 (±7.6%) | 651.16 (±10.5%) |
| 264 Kazakhstan | 11830493 (±516.3%) |  | 2.20 (±7.6%) |  |  | 96.991 (±22.8%) | 581.23 (±30.5%) |
| 262 Bulgaria | 342 (±2.7%) |  | 7.18 (±4.9%) |  |  | 29.607 (±1.9%) | 145.81 (±1.0%) |
| 252 Norway | 242 (±0.3%) |  | 3.35 (±4.0%) |  |  | 11.658 (±1.1%) | 98.12 (±0.2%) |
| 243 El Salvador | 5459402 (±260.8%) |  | 4.45 (±5.7%) |  |  | 88.934 (±12.5%) | 532.96 (±16.3%) |
| 242 Morocco | 214 (±0.7%) |  | 3.52 (±6.8%) |  |  | 13.376 (±2.1%) | 98.38 (±0.4%) |
| 236 Oman | 1166 (±10.4%) |  | 1.99 (±10.9%) |  |  | 38.064 (±2.7%) | 215.95 (±2.0%) |
| 214 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 198 (±1.3%) |  | 8.50 (±4.1%) |  |  | 20.202 (±2.1%) | 119.63 (±0.5%) |
| 193 Greece | 187 (±0.5%) |  | 6.83 (±2.9%) |  |  | 15.593 (±1.5%) | 97.59 (±0.3%) |
| 189 Congo (Kinshasa) | 1674 (±26.3%) |  | 1.27 (±33.7%) |  |  | 54.312 (±5.5%) | 258.74 (±5.9%) |
| 186 British Columbia, Canada | 177 (±0.4%) |  | 8.32 (±3.1%) |  |  | 16.906 (±0.9%) | 105.64 (±0.2%) |
| 173 Kenya | 379 (±4.7%) |  | 2.60 (±20.7%) |  |  | 34.244 (±2.0%) | 179.46 (±1.3%) |
| 161 Alberta, Canada | 156 (±0.3%) |  | 2.65 (±7.4%) |  |  | 15.614 (±0.8%) | 110.30 (±0.2%) |
| 144 Mauritania | 145 (±0.8%) |  | 3.17 (±15.8%) |  |  | 13.648 (±1.2%) | 158.72 (±0.1%) |
| 143 Senegal | 1338 (±23.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 47.363 (±4.8%) | 248.64 (±4.5%) |
| 142 Qatar | 326 (±10.5%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 30.910 (±4.3%) | 183.26 (±2.3%) |
| 129 Ghana | 1563212 (±349.8%) |  | 0.72 (±43.2%) |  |  | 102.687 (±18.3%) | 590.47 (±24.7%) |
| 128 Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania | 126 (±0.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 12.182 (±1.0%) | 98.62 (±0.2%) |
| 123 Haiti | 207 (±3.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 27.277 (±2.2%) | 168.82 (±0.9%) |
| 122 Kyrgyzstan | 5396636 (±794.0%) |  | 6.64 (±7.6%) |  |  | 90.360 (±34.5%) | 549.59 (±45.3%) |
| 121 Malaysia | 118 (±0.4%) |  | 1.83 (±12.0%) |  |  | 12.466 (±1.4%) | 92.62 (±0.3%) |
| 120 Ethiopia | 131 (±3.1%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 15.367 (±3.4%) | 165.05 (±0.4%) |
| 115 Croatia | 109 (±0.4%) |  | 5.52 (±3.4%) |  |  | 14.073 (±1.0%) | 108.91 (±0.2%) |
| 111 Slovenia | 109 (±0.2%) |  | 7.54 (±1.7%) |  |  | 12.039 (±0.7%) | 99.86 (±0.1%) |
| 110 Luxembourg | 110 (±0.3%) |  | 3.06 (±2.9%) |  |  | 12.702 (±0.9%) | 96.83 (±0.2%) |
| 103 Bahrain | 2937793 (±440.8%) |  | 0.31 (±45.1%) |  |  | 95.839 (±20.8%) | 568.45 (±27.6%) |
| 92 Somalia | 93 (±0.7%) |  | 4.58 (±6.3%) |  |  | 16.212 (±1.5%) | 125.15 (±0.2%) |
| 91 Nicaragua | 102 (±2.9%) |  | 3.76 (±19.7%) |  |  | 19.391 (±3.0%) | 153.59 (±0.5%) |
| 86 Cuba | 85 (±0.3%) |  | 4.24 (±1.9%) |  |  | 12.126 (±0.9%) | 108.14 (±0.1%) |
| 83 Albania | 14459 (±602.5%) |  | 7.56 (±5.0%) |  |  | 110.574 (±58.5%) | 541.96 (±82.3%) |
| 80 Venezuela | 1127178 (±636.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 101.036 (±31.8%) | 587.79 (±42.8%) |
| 79 Cote d’Ivoire | 241 (±16.1%) |  | 2.70 (±10.3%) |  |  | 42.426 (±5.5%) | 199.05 (±4.7%) |
| 74 Chad | 73 (±0.5%) |  | 9.05 (±4.4%) |  |  | 10.660 (±1.7%) | 129.44 (±0.1%) |
| 69 Estonia | 69 (±0.4%) |  | 4.23 (±5.8%) |  |  | 13.231 (±1.3%) | 102.41 (±0.2%) |
| 68 Niger | 70 (±0.6%) |  | 7.65 (±1.8%) |  |  | 16.169 (±1.3%) | 114.61 (±0.2%) |
| 63 Nova Scotia, Canada | 63 (±0.3%) |  | 6.12 (±1.8%) |  |  | 11.495 (±0.9%) | 117.76 (±0.1%) |
| 58 Thailand | 57 (±0.2%) |  | 1.77 (±8.9%) |  |  | 9.744 (±0.9%) | 95.37 (±0.1%) |
| 56 Djibouti | 62 (±1.8%) |  | 2.45 (±9.9%) |  |  | 16.685 (±2.3%) | 152.86 (±0.3%) |
| 54 Tajikistan | 51 (±0.6%) |  | 1.87 (±13.2%) |  |  | 8.873 (±2.3%) | 130.99 (±0.1%) |
| 53 Burkina Faso | 53 (±0.2%) |  | 6.93 (±2.7%) |  |  | 13.026 (±0.8%) | 96.91 (±0.1%) |
| 52 Andorra | 51 (±0.4%) |  | 6.87 (±1.7%) |  |  | 12.196 (±1.3%) | 97.23 (±0.2%) |
| 51 Uzbekistan | 7623 (±452.5%) |  | 1.13 (±26.0%) |  |  | 92.194 (±42.8%) | 470.53 (±57.0%) |
| 50 Tunisia | 49 (±0.5%) |  | 4.90 (±2.7%) |  |  | 11.949 (±1.7%) | 95.17 (±0.3%) |
| 49 New South Wales, Australia | 49 (±0.5%) |  | 1.45 (±8.7%) |  |  | 14.603 (±1.5%) | 98.64 (±0.3%) |
| 48 Channel Islands, United Kingdom | 47 (±0.5%) |  | 8.68 (±0.9%) |  |  | 11.089 (±1.7%) | 106.19 (±0.2%) |
| 47 Congo (Brazzaville) | 578 (±50.7%) |  | 6.33 (±11.6%) |  |  | 60.124 (±9.5%) | 284.02 (±10.9%) |
| 46 Gabon | 102 (±8.7%) |  | 1.38 (±23.3%) |  |  | 31.906 (±3.9%) | 177.77 (±2.2%) |
| 42 Liberia | 40 (±1.9%) |  | 9.07 (±7.6%) |  |  | 21.510 (±2.9%) | 122.82 (±0.7%) |
| 38 Libya | 853504 (±523.7%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 79.236 (±24.9%) | 486.56 (±31.3%) |
| 37 Mayotte, France | 38 (±2.0%) |  | 3.15 (±13.4%) |  |  | 20.915 (±2.5%) | 135.83 (±0.5%) |
| 36 Guinea | 38 (±3.1%) |  | 1.34 (±15.3%) |  |  | 23.287 (±3.6%) | 135.48 (±0.9%) |
| 35 Nepal | 47 (±3.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 19.815 (±2.5%) | 165.29 (±0.5%) |
| 33 Madagascar | 9692 (±308.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 61.260 (±27.5%) | 357.04 (±30.3%) |
| 30 Latvia | 31 (±1.3%) |  | 3.48 (±4.5%) |  |  | 18.343 (±2.5%) | 118.00 (±0.5%) |
| 29 Uruguay | 27 (±1.3%) |  | 4.65 (±4.9%) |  |  | 18.796 (±2.7%) | 109.07 (±0.6%) |
| 28 Slovakia | 28 (±0.3%) |  | 2.37 (±6.6%) |  |  | 9.430 (±1.4%) | 109.62 (±0.1%) |
| 26 Singapore | 26 (±0.5%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 16.970 (±1.3%) | 107.04 (±0.3%) |
| 25 Costa Rica | 447 (±178.5%) |  | 2.24 (±12.4%) |  |  | 76.872 (±28.3%) | 349.30 (±37.1%) |
| 24 Isle of Man, United Kingdom | 24 (±0.4%) |  | 7.23 (±1.5%) |  |  | 7.023 (±2.2%) | 110.35 (±0.1%) |
| 23 Benin | 575 (±115.5%) |  | 2.52 (±54.3%) |  |  | 46.551 (±17.4%) | 269.20 (±15.8%) |
| 22 Victoria, Australia | 19 (±0.7%) |  | 1.44 (±14.3%) |  |  | 11.093 (±3.1%) | 94.07 (±0.5%) |
| 20 Paraguay | 27 (±20.3%) |  | 3.25 (±11.5%) |  |  | 39.395 (±14.3%) | 136.57 (±11.7%) |
| 19 Cyprus | 18 (±0.9%) |  | 2.17 (±5.7%) |  |  | 15.426 (±3.1%) | 91.79 (±0.7%) |
For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.