Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.
Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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Actualisation date: Thu Mar 4 05:17:06 UTC 2021
| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_dead | death rate (err) | death_rate | deaths_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 751257 North America, North America | 625458 (±11.4%) |  | 7.61 (±5.2%) |  |  | 69.821 (±8.7%) | 228.47 (±7.8%) |
| 515985 USA, USA | 434092 (±13.6%) |  | 7.59 (±5.5%) |  |  | 74.653 (±10.1%) | 226.44 (±10.2%) |
| 451146 South America, South America | 349562 (±0.4%) |  | 5.88 (±3.0%) |  |  | 44.305 (±0.5%) | 210.43 (±0.2%) |
| 257361 Brazil | 186545 (±0.5%) |  | 5.54 (±2.7%) |  |  | 41.447 (±0.8%) | 193.93 (±0.3%) |
| 184551 South Asia, South Asia | 186256 (±0.2%) |  | 2.55 (±4.1%) |  |  | 45.276 (±0.3%) | 233.88 (±0.1%) |
| 130603 Middle East, Middle East | 2366501 (±270.5%) |  | 5.38 (±3.9%) |  |  | 165.135 (±42.8%) | 716.28 (±60.6%) |
| 123296 United Kingdom | 48578 (±1.2%) |  | 24.97 (±3.9%) |  |  | 23.825 (±4.7%) | 113.17 (±1.7%) |
| 115101 East Europe, East Europe | 1495473 (±34.0%) |  | 8.28 (±3.4%) |  |  | 133.394 (±5.4%) | 622.57 (±6.8%) |
| 104110 Africa, Africa | 69172 (±1.5%) |  | 5.80 (±1.2%) |  |  | 53.038 (±1.4%) | 238.46 (±0.7%) |
| 59972 Colombia | 43254 (±0.7%) |  | 5.13 (±1.4%) |  |  | 42.870 (±1.0%) | 235.83 (±0.3%) |
| 52192 Argentina | 50111 (±0.9%) |  | 4.18 (±2.6%) |  |  | 40.988 (±1.0%) | 272.15 (±0.2%) |
| 50271 South Africa | 24474 (±1.0%) |  | 6.59 (±1.1%) |  |  | 39.583 (±1.7%) | 220.79 (±0.4%) |
| 27650 Ukraine | 1352747 (±23.3%) |  | 3.18 (±10.4%) |  |  | 131.919 (±2.7%) | 685.02 (±3.2%) |
| 22141 Belgium | 79888 (±82.7%) |  | 6.88 (±64.0%) |  |  | 147.170 (±25.6%) | 483.70 (±40.7%) |
| 22043 Canada, Canada | 10660 (±1.1%) |  | 14.26 (±2.8%) |  |  | 24.078 (±4.1%) | 122.42 (±1.4%) |
| 15850 Ecuador | 16005 (±1.8%) |  | 7.75 (±3.3%) |  |  | 49.984 (±2.2%) | 207.47 (±1.0%) |
| 13013 Pakistan | 7779 (±1.1%) |  | 4.13 (±2.4%) |  |  | 32.064 (±2.7%) | 167.14 (±0.8%) |
| 11703 Bolivia | 9389 (±0.5%) |  | 8.25 (±0.5%) |  |  | 32.397 (±1.2%) | 217.10 (±0.2%) |
| 10778 Egypt | 6647 (±0.5%) |  | 9.75 (±1.0%) |  |  | 31.357 (±1.2%) | 175.52 (±0.3%) |
| 10391 Bulgaria | 2711101188 (±365.4%) |  | 10.74 (±43.2%) |  |  | 189.224 (±13.1%) | 1171.80 (±17.8%) |
| 10005 Switzerland | 10680320 (±647.0%) |  | 19.67 (±3.7%) |  |  | 257.609 (±44.0%) | 1348.77 (±63.2%) |
| 8605 Austria | 9342025258 (±923.3%) |  | 10.52 (±53.6%) |  |  | 227.178 (±28.7%) | 1406.16 (±40.8%) |
| 8423 Bangladesh | 7418 (±0.6%) |  | 2.56 (±2.3%) |  |  | 43.585 (±0.9%) | 208.24 (±0.3%) |
| 8047 Tunisia | 5626 (±1.1%) |  | 6.85 (±4.6%) |  |  | 32.984 (±1.0%) | 316.62 (±0.1%) |
| 6412 Guatemala | 4515 (±0.8%) |  | 6.21 (±1.3%) |  |  | 39.213 (±1.3%) | 211.25 (±0.4%) |
| 5871 Panama | 3774 (±1.3%) |  | 3.90 (±5.8%) |  |  | 48.026 (±1.5%) | 218.66 (±0.6%) |
| 5145 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 384929090 (±208.3%) |  | 7.87 (±6.3%) |  |  | 218.389 (±8.6%) | 1294.93 (±11.9%) |
| 4805 Lebanon | 3626 (±2.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 66.133 (±1.0%) | 357.65 (±0.6%) |
| 4333 Ireland | 1865 (±0.5%) |  | 12.64 (±2.3%) |  |  | 15.001 (±2.7%) | 110.38 (±0.5%) |
| 4002 Moldova | 6464 (±4.9%) |  | 5.30 (±3.6%) |  |  | 82.246 (±2.0%) | 337.66 (±1.9%) |
| 3532 Georgia | 1940499885 (±477.8%) |  | 1.39 (±6.1%) |  |  | 173.368 (±15.9%) | 1101.19 (±21.3%) |
| 3225 Azerbaijan | 262415825 (±485.8%) |  | 5.40 (±3.3%) |  |  | 237.740 (±19.6%) | 1400.59 (±27.7%) |
| 3218 Paraguay | 2433 (±0.8%) |  | 1.74 (±23.0%) |  |  | 40.181 (±0.9%) | 278.00 (±0.2%) |
| 3200 Armenia | 43336 (±47.8%) |  | 4.98 (±3.0%) |  |  | 129.054 (±8.2%) | 591.77 (±10.3%) |
| 3170 Kazakhstan | 2444 (±0.6%) |  | 1.80 (±8.1%) |  |  | 27.639 (±1.6%) | 212.86 (±0.3%) |
| 3118 Dominican Republic | 2552 (±0.7%) |  | 3.36 (±5.4%) |  |  | 42.581 (±1.1%) | 190.57 (±0.4%) |
| 2991 Algeria | 3226 (±2.1%) |  | 5.06 (±4.8%) |  |  | 62.356 (±1.9%) | 217.37 (±1.4%) |
| 2820 Costa Rica | 2509 (±0.7%) |  | 3.04 (±4.4%) |  |  | 45.017 (±0.7%) | 277.03 (±0.2%) |
| 2446 Afghanistan | 1765 (±1.0%) |  | 6.08 (±0.8%) |  |  | 33.238 (±2.4%) | 175.70 (±0.7%) |
| 2386 Ethiopia | 1927 (±0.6%) |  | 2.33 (±12.2%) |  |  | 38.139 (±0.9%) | 240.97 (±0.2%) |
| 2367 Denmark | 925 (±3.9%) |  | 12.02 (±3.5%) |  |  | 55.170 (±7.1%) | 113.44 (±5.6%) |
| 1993 Belarus | 1595 (±2.0%) |  | 2.88 (±4.1%) |  |  | 59.474 (±1.8%) | 228.04 (±1.1%) |
| 1890 Alberta, Canada | 106204054 (±663.6%) |  | 12.55 (±4.0%) |  |  | 280.693 (±26.7%) | 1630.14 (±38.6%) |
| 1863 Kenya | 3307 (±4.5%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 69.973 (±2.2%) | 318.77 (±1.6%) |
| 1835 Albania | 16409 (±23.8%) |  | 0.96 (±67.0%) |  |  | 115.581 (±4.1%) | 552.96 (±4.8%) |
| 1638 Latvia | 1992948 (±245.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 124.598 (±14.8%) | 769.90 (±17.0%) |
| 1616 Kosovo | 1914 (±6.0%) |  | 6.86 (±3.1%) |  |  | 62.673 (±3.6%) | 290.23 (±2.3%) |
| 1580 Oman | 1705 (±0.5%) |  | 1.18 (±7.6%) |  |  | 46.172 (±0.6%) | 238.74 (±0.2%) |
| 1365 British Columbia, Canada | 64162765 (±1005.4%) |  | 7.62 (±29.9%) |  |  | 299.327 (±41.8%) | 1719.33 (±60.9%) |
| 1253 United Arab Emirates | 633 (±2.5%) |  | 2.50 (±7.0%) |  |  | 52.529 (±3.6%) | 169.33 (±2.0%) |
| 1141 Malaysia | 18210260 (±725.4%) |  | 10.26 (±3.4%) |  |  | 308.928 (±33.3%) | 1738.19 (±48.5%) |
| 951 Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania | 964 (±1.3%) |  | 6.17 (±3.6%) |  |  | 24.066 (±4.1%) | 219.49 (±0.5%) |
| 898 Manitoba, Canada | 1399 (±4.3%) |  | 4.75 (±36.0%) |  |  | 39.924 (±2.0%) | 351.39 (±0.5%) |
| 711 Congo (Kinshasa) | 433 (±3.4%) |  | 6.51 (±1.6%) |  |  | 51.752 (±4.2%) | 197.59 (±2.2%) |
| 665 Mozambique | 236 (±2.0%) |  | 9.60 (±8.1%) |  |  | 52.722 (±1.3%) | 300.63 (±0.5%) |
| 641 Luxembourg | 1845481 (±632.8%) |  | 9.58 (±3.6%) |  |  | 258.112 (±37.7%) | 1394.00 (±53.9%) |
| 623 Norway | 289 (±1.1%) |  | 5.61 (±3.5%) |  |  | 19.001 (±5.2%) | 101.92 (±1.6%) |
| 551 Cameroon | 432 (±0.2%) |  | 2.50 (±3.6%) |  |  | 25.750 (±0.8%) | 144.43 (±0.2%) |
| 510 Angola | 493 (±0.8%) |  | 4.59 (±5.8%) |  |  | 47.639 (±0.7%) | 270.87 (±0.2%) |
| 453 Bahrain | 383 (±0.8%) |  | 0.81 (±10.8%) |  |  | 44.096 (±1.1%) | 216.27 (±0.4%) |
| 432 Jamaica | 307 (±0.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 32.507 (±1.3%) | 277.18 (±0.2%) |
| 334 Uganda | 470 (±5.7%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 57.261 (±2.9%) | 327.60 (±1.4%) |
| 332 Botswana | 50 (±1.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 45.293 (±1.6%) | 286.47 (±0.5%) |
| 319 Malta | 3677 (±26.7%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 92.880 (±4.5%) | 508.98 (±4.2%) |
| 315 Belize | 1344 (±13.1%) |  | 6.73 (±6.5%) |  |  | 67.664 (±3.3%) | 410.56 (±2.2%) |
| 295 Lesotho | 46 (±0.9%) |  | 19.40 (±4.8%) |  |  | 28.082 (±2.5%) | 217.24 (±0.4%) |
| 265 Rwanda | 162 (±12.2%) |  | 5.70 (±11.9%) |  |  | 71.948 (±5.0%) | 347.71 (±3.7%) |
| 232 Cyprus | 13725250 (±1073.5%) |  | 15.06 (±3.6%) |  |  | 271.155 (±42.1%) | 1585.94 (±60.8%) |
| 197 Guyana | 199 (±2.0%) |  | 1.27 (±43.6%) |  |  | 45.050 (±2.0%) | 266.87 (±0.6%) |
| 179 Bahamas | 183 (±1.2%) |  | 3.71 (±5.5%) |  |  | 35.061 (±1.9%) | 257.16 (±0.3%) |
| 164 Guadeloupe, France | 161 (±1.5%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 26.739 (±3.1%) | 274.31 (±0.3%) |
| 148 Cabo Verde | 140 (±1.7%) |  | 2.51 (±10.4%) |  |  | 48.723 (±1.6%) | 254.92 (±0.6%) |
| 144 Comoros | 7 (±0.6%) |  | 23.67 (±29.4%) |  |  | 14.478 (±3.8%) | 159.24 (±0.4%) |
| 143 Burkina Faso | 61 (±0.8%) |  | 11.20 (±3.5%) |  |  | 17.859 (±4.2%) | 99.57 (±1.2%) |
| 140 Chad | 97 (±1.4%) |  | 12.40 (±2.1%) |  |  | 37.226 (±5.0%) | 120.41 (±2.9%) |
| 139 Trinidad and Tobago | 125 (±0.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 27.904 (±1.9%) | 255.45 (±0.2%) |
| 128 Congo (Brazzaville) | 100 (±0.8%) |  | 2.29 (±6.7%) |  |  | 35.218 (±1.8%) | 179.14 (±0.5%) |
| 110 Andorra | 101 (±9.9%) |  | 8.71 (±3.6%) |  |  | 81.708 (±11.1%) | 129.69 (±17.7%) |
| 92 Equatorial Guinea | 86 (±0.6%) |  | 1.89 (±3.7%) |  |  | 23.759 (±2.0%) | 174.98 (±0.4%) |
| 91 Guinea | 81 (±0.4%) |  | 1.26 (±4.2%) |  |  | 41.772 (±0.7%) | 177.52 (±0.3%) |
| 86 Channel Islands, United Kingdom | 48 (±0.3%) |  | 12.38 (±1.9%) |  |  | 11.753 (±2.0%) | 106.49 (±0.3%) |
| 85 Liberia | 85 (±0.7%) |  | 5.42 (±2.7%) |  |  | 30.144 (±2.0%) | 157.79 (±0.6%) |
| 74 Aruba, Netherlands | 49 (±1.0%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 32.333 (±1.8%) | 257.10 (±0.3%) |
| 70 Benin | 42 (±0.3%) |  | 3.22 (±16.9%) |  |  | 21.129 (±1.2%) | 178.07 (±0.2%) |
| 65 Nova Scotia, Canada | 64 (±0.1%) |  | 5.88 (±0.9%) |  |  | 12.121 (±0.8%) | 118.13 (±0.1%) |
| 63 Central African Republic | 62 (±0.2%) |  | 1.21 (±11.4%) |  |  | 13.191 (±1.5%) | 171.23 (±0.1%) |
| 62 Maldives | 53 (±1.0%) |  | 1.54 (±6.8%) |  |  | 47.298 (±1.3%) | 218.67 (±0.5%) |
| 54 New South Wales, Australia | 52 (±0.2%) |  | 1.40 (±3.9%) |  |  | 15.896 (±1.3%) | 99.64 (±0.3%) |
| 52 Reunion, France | 83 (±6.6%) |  | 5.59 (±5.0%) |  |  | 60.781 (±3.4%) | 321.14 (±1.9%) |
| 48 Guinea-Bissau | 44 (±0.5%) |  | 1.69 (±24.0%) |  |  | 33.569 (±1.3%) | 173.18 (±0.4%) |
| 45 Martinique, France | 180101 (±560.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 300.302 (±34.5%) | 1590.59 (±50.3%) |
| 36 Barbados | 7 (±0.2%) |  | 25.37 (±2.7%) |  |  | 9.328 (±1.7%) | 99.02 (±0.2%) |
| 30 Sao Tome and Principe | 16 (±0.5%) |  | 3.81 (±12.6%) |  |  | 20.205 (±2.9%) | 132.99 (±0.6%) |
| 28 New Brunswick, Canada | 11746 (±556.2%) |  | 14.13 (±3.5%) |  |  | 217.828 (±39.5%) | 1154.85 (±54.8%) |
| 22 Henan, China | 22 (±0.9%) |  | 1.80 (±8.1%) |  |  | 9.103 (±8.2%) | 22.68 (±10.6%) |
For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.