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Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

7 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Thu May 13 04:16:32 UTC 2021

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_dead death rate (err) death_rate deaths_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
858576
North America, North America
1271709 (±2.4%) 3.23 (±3.9%) 94.398 (±1.6%) 340.20 (±1.4%)
683688
South America, South America
818193 (±3.2%) 5.44 (±2.6%) 89.635 (±2.3%) 330.81 (±1.8%)
425540
Brazil
831639 (±9.2%) 5.69 (±2.4%) 120.565 (±4.0%) 441.03 (±4.5%)
293144
South Asia, South Asia
216042 (±1.0%) 2.89 (±3.1%) 54.888 (±1.7%) 248.89 (±0.6%)
174729
Middle East, Middle East
191825 (±0.8%) 3.74 (±3.9%) 77.468 (±0.8%) 303.08 (±0.5%)
163259
East Europe, East Europe
267154 (±1.5%) 4.65 (±5.4%) 90.674 (±0.8%) 402.58 (±0.6%)
124781
Africa, Africa
172157 (±1.8%) 4.82 (±2.2%) 84.200 (±1.3%) 348.83 (±0.9%)
123282
Italy
439905 (±17.0%) fiterr (±err) 153.900 (±5.5%) 553.17 (±7.5%)
68311
Argentina
60843 (±0.6%) 3.78 (±1.8%) 52.368 (±1.1%) 287.34 (±0.3%)
48544
Ukraine
91188 (±3.6%) 1.35 (±12.6%) 93.627 (±1.7%) 443.52 (±1.2%)
24693
Canada, Canada
42354 (±7.4%) 3.49 (±19.0%) 114.246 (±4.4%) 356.61 (±5.0%)
24609
Belgium
32902 (±4.5%) fiterr (±err) 98.762 (±3.9%) 268.90 (±4.1%)
19286
Ecuador
17337 (±0.7%) 6.65 (±2.1%) 55.615 (±1.3%) 217.08 (±0.6%)
19210
Pakistan
27474 (±6.0%) 4.53 (±1.8%) 106.053 (±3.6%) 362.50 (±3.6%)
17104
Bulgaria
21132 (±2.3%) fiterr (±err) 67.861 (±1.8%) 383.94 (±0.7%)
15834
Iraq
14210 (±0.4%) 3.20 (±3.5%) 44.358 (±0.9%) 225.07 (±0.3%)
13258
Bolivia
11923 (±0.8%) 7.28 (±1.6%) 48.366 (±1.7%) 234.05 (±0.6%)
12005
Bangladesh
10441 (±1.2%) 2.86 (±1.9%) 63.798 (±1.7%) 248.22 (±0.8%)
10413
Austria
8489467719 (±946.3%) fiterr (±err) 418.612 (±32.2%) 2485.90 (±47.4%)
9151
Jordan
13706 (±5.5%) 2.46 (±4.0%) 78.660 (±3.3%) 412.63 (±1.7%)
9083
Morocco
9272 (±0.3%) 1.19 (±11.2%) 45.252 (±0.6%) 294.40 (±0.1%)
8912
Bosnia and Herzegovina
13758 (±3.9%) 4.80 (±5.7%) 85.605 (±2.2%) 409.81 (±1.3%)
5970
Moldova
11232 (±2.5%) 3.76 (±3.9%) 103.704 (±1.2%) 422.63 (±1.0%)
5135
North Macedonia
8390 (±3.6%) 3.03 (±13.4%) 94.306 (±1.9%) 412.25 (±1.4%)
4713
Azerbaijan
5466 (±2.6%) 4.71 (±4.9%) 70.453 (±2.3%) 355.10 (±1.0%)
4256
Armenia
4701 (±1.6%) 4.53 (±3.6%) 72.157 (±1.5%) 312.88 (±0.8%)
3911
Ethiopia
4410 (±3.5%) 2.24 (±6.5%) 82.456 (±2.7%) 338.85 (±1.7%)
3550
Dominican Republic
3382 (±1.0%) 2.45 (±4.1%) 61.348 (±1.6%) 222.85 (±0.8%)
3382
Kazakhstan
3176 (±0.6%) 1.42 (±5.1%) 45.041 (±1.6%) 229.66 (±0.5%)
3343
Algeria
3384 (±0.5%) 3.71 (±3.8%) 64.479 (±0.8%) 223.85 (±0.4%)
2710
Afghanistan
2599 (±1.0%) 5.91 (±0.9%) 58.326 (±1.9%) 216.23 (±0.9%)
2652
Belarus
4082 (±2.2%) 2.52 (±3.4%) 99.918 (±1.3%) 370.69 (±1.2%)
2499
Denmark
8984 (±20.1%) 0.97 (±75.3%) 139.261 (±6.8%) 528.04 (±8.2%)
2420
Albania
3883 (±1.7%) 2.53 (±5.9%) 83.616 (±1.1%) 393.38 (±0.6%)
2217
Latvia
2301 (±0.4%) 2.22 (±2.1%) 44.950 (±0.6%) 377.16 (±0.1%)
2148
Oman
1782 (±0.6%) 1.55 (±4.7%) 50.197 (±1.3%) 243.23 (±0.4%)
2119
Alberta, Canada
2399 (±1.8%) 1.04 (±67.2%) 53.942 (±2.3%) 348.60 (±0.5%)
1884
Korea - South
5209 (±11.1%) 1.83 (±71.7%) 119.257 (±4.2%) 478.22 (±4.4%)
1722
Malaysia
5742 (±10.5%) fiterr (±err) 115.756 (±3.3%) 532.95 (±3.0%)
1545
Montenegro
2369 (±1.6%) 1.32 (±10.8%) 82.133 (±1.0%) 400.26 (±0.5%)
1152
Cameroon
47161 (±231.0%) 4.27 (±2.2%) 284.617 (±30.3%) 1263.47 (±44.6%)
1070
Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania
973 (±0.4%) 5.60 (±3.4%) 24.560 (±2.1%) 219.59 (±0.3%)
806
Luxembourg
1461 (±5.6%) fiterr (±err) 96.483 (±3.1%) 398.75 (±2.4%)
775
Congo (Kinshasa)
1037 (±3.1%) 5.29 (±2.2%) 84.226 (±2.6%) 314.37 (±1.8%)
767
Norway
6386 (±44.3%) 4.51 (±3.7%) 208.541 (±10.0%) 795.32 (±14.8%)
755
Cuba
182634765 (±464.5%) 1.73 (±53.4%) 382.920 (±17.1%) 2257.63 (±24.8%)
753
Somalia
914412606 (±744.7%) 14.48 (±2.3%) 341.454 (±23.8%) 2082.29 (±34.3%)
751
Botswana
969 (±1.6%) 2.35 (±9.5%) 47.665 (±1.3%) 428.90 (±0.2%)
697
Bahrain
705 (±2.9%) 1.11 (±6.9%) 80.942 (±2.6%) 299.78 (±1.8%)
639
Angola
604 (±0.5%) 3.45 (±3.8%) 57.419 (±0.7%) 289.92 (±0.2%)
506
Mali
1845 (±18.1%) 8.99 (±3.1%) 148.865 (±5.6%) 569.18 (±7.0%)
417
Malta
482 (±0.7%) fiterr (±err) 58.659 (±0.8%) 355.46 (±0.2%)
346
Uganda
359 (±0.6%) fiterr (±err) 45.736 (±1.1%) 305.33 (±0.2%)
323
Belize
328 (±0.3%) 3.49 (±5.4%) 35.485 (±0.9%) 324.61 (±0.1%)
264
Haiti
244 (±0.2%) 2.88 (±1.8%) 31.151 (±0.7%) 177.34 (±0.2%)
236
Cabo Verde
250 (±2.7%) 1.90 (±4.5%) 79.794 (±2.2%) 328.40 (±1.3%)
224
Trinidad and Tobago
148 (±0.8%) 2.64 (±8.8%) 39.434 (±2.2%) 262.27 (±0.4%)
214
Bahamas
188 (±0.4%) 3.25 (±3.9%) 37.316 (±1.2%) 258.49 (±0.2%)
175
Gambia
143 (±0.8%) 4.29 (±2.2%) 29.160 (±3.1%) 229.67 (±0.5%)
172
Chad
1530 (±68.7%) 4.45 (±25.7%) 245.480 (±16.0%) 887.77 (±25.3%)
170
Mayotte, France
2657395 (±431.3%) 3.22 (±3.3%) 360.962 (±22.1%) 2007.78 (±31.7%)
164
Burkina Faso
283851 (±382.0%) 3.06 (±13.4%) 407.491 (±26.8%) 2092.45 (±39.2%)
151
Djibouti
71 (±1.8%) 3.20 (±4.4%) 26.007 (±8.0%) 156.38 (±2.2%)
148
Congo (Brazzaville)
135 (±1.0%) 2.04 (±3.8%) 56.468 (±1.9%) 207.79 (±0.9%)
141
French Polynesia, France
143 (±0.2%) 1.02 (±16.2%) 33.952 (±0.4%) 318.84 (±0.1%)
131
Cambodia
309 (±10.4%) fiterr (±err) 36.808 (±4.2%) 492.29 (±0.6%)
130
Papua New Guinea
673579 (±296.8%) fiterr (±err) 169.061 (±17.0%) 1055.01 (±19.6%)
127
Andorra
294 (±13.5%) 1.13 (±68.1%) 152.741 (±6.4%) 431.43 (±9.9%)
125
Togo
169 (±3.0%) 4.72 (±5.6%) 92.608 (±2.0%) 341.44 (±1.7%)
112
Equatorial Guinea
92 (±0.6%) 2.08 (±2.6%) 27.189 (±2.6%) 177.23 (±0.6%)
106
French Guiana, France
83 (±0.7%) fiterr (±err) 36.375 (±2.4%) 202.28 (±0.7%)
104
Aruba, Netherlands
129 (±2.7%) fiterr (±err) 79.941 (±2.0%) 352.41 (±1.2%)
101
Benin
369 (±30.0%) 1.95 (±21.7%) 152.919 (±9.5%) 566.63 (±12.4%)
93
Central African Republic
65 (±0.6%) 1.77 (±7.2%) 15.328 (±4.6%) 171.82 (±0.5%)
90
San Marino
248809 (±785.6%) 7.51 (±3.2%) 519.137 (±52.3%) 2663.87 (±78.1%)
87
Martinique, France
38865441 (±986.9%) 1.38 (±66.9%) 530.132 (±34.9%) 3091.01 (±52.3%)
71
Nova Scotia, Canada
65 (±0.1%) 5.62 (±1.2%) 12.349 (±1.0%) 118.25 (±0.1%)
67
Guinea-Bissau
59 (±1.6%) 3.05 (±3.5%) 60.715 (±3.2%) 199.95 (±1.6%)
54
New South Wales, Australia
53 (±0.2%) 1.28 (±3.0%) 16.490 (±1.2%) 100.07 (±0.3%)
45
Barbados
19202933 (±861.9%) 4.84 (±31.6%) 373.612 (±30.9%) 2216.96 (±44.9%)
41
New Brunswick, Canada
71 (±6.1%) 3.52 (±47.8%) 80.888 (±3.1%) 436.57 (±1.7%)
22
Henan, China
22 (±0.1%) 1.76 (±1.5%) 5.514 (±1.0%) 42.12 (±0.2%)

For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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