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Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

9 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Sat Jul 11 04:15:12 UTC 2020

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_dead death rate (err) death_rate deaths_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
554924
World total, World total
563719 (±1.3%) 8.07 (±4.4%) 23.539 (±1.6%) 119.95 (±0.5%)
550283
World without China, World without China
557575 (±1.3%) 8.18 (±4.5%) 23.390 (±1.7%) 120.34 (±0.6%)
179691
North America, North America
179688 (±1.1%) 8.57 (±3.8%) 21.579 (±1.5%) 121.85 (±0.4%)
136323
Europe, Europe
133109 (±0.2%) 11.74 (±1.2%) 13.847 (±0.5%) 97.94 (±0.1%)
133290
USA, USA
128735 (±0.6%) 7.49 (±3.7%) 18.325 (±1.1%) 114.27 (±0.2%)
95471
South America, South America
157561 (±0.8%) 4.59 (±3.8%) 28.619 (±0.4%) 166.74 (±0.2%)
69184
Brazil
97153 (±0.8%) 4.91 (±3.6%) 26.098 (±0.5%) 158.39 (±0.2%)
44602
United Kingdom
43218 (±0.4%) 16.72 (±1.1%) 16.038 (±1.1%) 108.35 (±0.2%)
34926
Italy
34344 (±0.2%) 15.56 (±1.2%) 14.564 (±0.7%) 92.74 (±0.2%)
33526
Mexico
71670 (±2.1%) 13.97 (±2.5%) 30.510 (±0.9%) 179.99 (±0.5%)
29916
South Asia, South Asia
98486 (±6.8%) 3.38 (±4.7%) 35.219 (±2.2%) 198.55 (±1.5%)
29889
France
29250 (±0.2%) 16.02 (±0.9%) 12.133 (±0.8%) 99.18 (±0.1%)
28752
Spain
27810 (±0.3%) 12.62 (±1.2%) 12.061 (±1.0%) 93.86 (±0.2%)
24547
Middle East, Middle East
26781 (±3.6%) 4.56 (±4.6%) 29.136 (±3.2%) 127.25 (±1.7%)
21604
India
77855 (±8.3%) 3.89 (±4.3%) 35.756 (±2.6%) 202.39 (±1.7%)
12619
East Europe, East Europe
17577 (±0.8%) 2.65 (±5.1%) 26.549 (±0.6%) 156.72 (±0.2%)
12366
Africa, Africa
76895 (±10.7%) 3.58 (±5.3%) 47.339 (±2.5%) 235.16 (±2.4%)
12305
Iran
11372 (±2.4%) 8.00 (±3.1%) 24.855 (±3.2%) 107.69 (±1.3%)
11314
Peru
19663 (±1.9%) 4.48 (±3.4%) 29.751 (±1.0%) 168.59 (±0.5%)
10826
Russia
14935 (±0.9%) 2.63 (±5.2%) 25.886 (±0.6%) 157.10 (±0.2%)
9778
Belgium
9638 (±0.2%) 16.71 (±0.6%) 12.118 (±0.6%) 103.18 (±0.1%)
9057
Germany
8870 (±0.2%) 5.41 (±2.5%) 13.501 (±0.6%) 103.97 (±0.1%)
8797
Canada, Canada
8893 (±0.2%) 9.28 (±2.2%) 16.981 (±0.5%) 121.01 (±0.1%)
6682
Chile
10062 (±4.4%) 1.57 (±28.8%) 21.180 (±2.9%) 169.73 (±0.7%)
6137
Netherlands
6081 (±0.1%) 13.33 (±1.2%) 13.373 (±0.4%) 99.85 (±0.1%)
5918
East Asia, East Asia
5962 (±1.1%) 5.90 (±1.5%) 19.653 (±2.8%) 60.43 (±1.7%)
5609
Quebec, Canada
5725 (±0.3%) 10.80 (±2.6%) 17.244 (±0.6%) 123.55 (±0.1%)
5500
Sweden
5466 (±0.6%) 10.42 (±4.1%) 18.664 (±1.1%) 116.44 (±0.2%)
5300
Turkey
5015 (±0.5%) 3.60 (±3.6%) 15.234 (±1.2%) 109.14 (±0.2%)
5058
Pakistan
12630 (±5.8%) 2.98 (±6.3%) 32.827 (±2.3%) 185.26 (±1.4%)
4939
South-East Asia, South-East Asia
6253 (±2.9%) 4.96 (±4.7%) 29.838 (±2.2%) 141.34 (±1.1%)
4900
Ecuador
4830 (±1.1%) 9.74 (±6.6%) 18.819 (±1.8%) 129.03 (±0.3%)
4791
Colombia
18429445 (±89.3%) 4.98 (±4.8%) 85.009 (±5.3%) 492.55 (±6.8%)
4641
China total, China total
4595 (±1.0%) 5.61 (±1.0%) 15.404 (±3.2%) 50.54 (±2.0%)
4512
Hubei, China
4483 (±1.0%) 6.72 (±1.2%) 15.778 (±3.3%) 50.92 (±2.0%)
3720
South Africa
16168 (±7.0%) 1.78 (±12.7%) 35.349 (±1.9%) 210.02 (±1.3%)
3617
Egypt
128020 (±37.1%) 4.69 (±4.7%) 59.649 (±5.1%) 312.71 (±5.6%)
3417
Indonesia
6674 (±6.0%) 7.74 (±7.2%) 36.971 (±2.7%) 172.20 (±2.0%)
2882
Iraq
81117921 (±298.1%) 6.10 (±47.7%) 76.608 (±13.9%) 475.41 (±17.3%)
2750
Ontario, Canada
2741 (±0.3%) 8.97 (±2.4%) 16.011 (±0.6%) 117.84 (±0.1%)
2238
Bangladesh
5661 (±3.9%) 2.63 (±10.8%) 32.808 (±1.5%) 187.28 (±0.9%)
2100
Saudi Arabia
18688 (±14.1%) 1.63 (±8.2%) 45.913 (±2.9%) 244.29 (±2.6%)
1966
Switzerland
1943 (±0.1%) 6.57 (±2.5%) 11.709 (±0.4%) 96.33 (±0.1%)
1834
Romania
1739 (±1.3%) 9.09 (±2.7%) 20.832 (±2.0%) 119.11 (±0.5%)
1743
Ireland
1715 (±0.3%) 6.88 (±1.3%) 12.512 (±1.0%) 108.94 (±0.1%)
1720
Argentina
18814 (±19.6%) 2.83 (±20.0%) 53.570 (±3.7%) 267.04 (±3.9%)
1644
Portugal
1574 (±0.6%) 5.62 (±3.1%) 16.873 (±1.3%) 106.98 (±0.3%)
1638
Bolivia
120330 (±35.4%) 4.77 (±4.4%) 59.443 (±4.0%) 328.74 (±4.4%)
1551
Poland
1546 (±1.3%) 6.68 (±3.9%) 21.037 (±1.9%) 121.30 (±0.5%)
1344
Ukraine
1699 (±2.0%) 4.95 (±4.9%) 27.293 (±1.5%) 147.14 (±0.6%)
1314
Philippines
1329 (±1.0%) 6.64 (±7.8%) 21.748 (±1.5%) 118.11 (±0.4%)
1092
Guatemala
2588 (±5.5%) 6.17 (±7.1%) 26.055 (±2.2%) 187.19 (±0.9%)
988
Algeria
1001 (±2.8%) 7.86 (±3.9%) 24.193 (±3.5%) 118.03 (±1.2%)
982
Japan
985 (±0.3%) 5.02 (±5.2%) 15.688 (±0.8%) 114.46 (±0.1%)
957
Afghanistan
2717768003 (±651.4%) 2.92 (±2.9%) 130.805 (±19.4%) 807.68 (±28.0%)
842
Dominican Republic
905 (±3.3%) 4.43 (±6.0%) 26.636 (±3.3%) 128.30 (±1.3%)
839
Panama
2645 (±20.9%) 5.57 (±5.9%) 45.584 (±6.5%) 206.95 (±6.2%)
706
Austria
679 (±0.3%) 4.40 (±1.1%) 12.266 (±1.1%) 98.25 (±0.2%)
704
Honduras
59232 (±72.6%) 5.71 (±10.8%) 69.942 (±8.1%) 366.56 (±9.7%)
689
Nigeria
1036 (±2.6%) 3.96 (±5.5%) 27.724 (±1.6%) 161.02 (±0.7%)
641
Sudan
733 (±1.4%) 7.74 (±3.2%) 19.024 (±1.6%) 151.97 (±0.3%)
624
Moldova
961 (±2.8%) 6.07 (±5.7%) 30.598 (±1.7%) 158.61 (±0.9%)
609
Denmark
598 (±0.3%) 4.96 (±3.3%) 13.859 (±0.8%) 100.24 (±0.1%)
591
Hungary
583 (±0.3%) 15.02 (±1.3%) 15.673 (±0.7%) 113.19 (±0.1%)
535
Armenia
1130 (±6.4%) 1.71 (±32.2%) 28.986 (±2.8%) 179.92 (±1.3%)
449
Belarus
587 (±1.8%) 1.61 (±9.2%) 27.666 (±1.4%) 148.53 (±0.6%)
382
Kuwait
409 (±0.6%) 1.56 (±17.6%) 18.634 (±0.7%) 143.97 (±0.1%)
362
North Macedonia
13066 (±74.6%) 10.10 (±8.6%) 70.350 (±10.2%) 345.71 (±12.5%)
361
Yemen
471 (±3.9%) 25.27 (±71.9%) 19.246 (±3.2%) 164.53 (±0.6%)
359
Cameroon
431 (±3.8%) 2.52 (±16.2%) 25.690 (±3.2%) 144.47 (±1.1%)
353
Czechia
339 (±0.5%) 4.24 (±3.7%) 14.410 (±1.5%) 103.29 (±0.3%)
352
Serbia
277 (±1.1%) 3.18 (±5.4%) 15.993 (±2.8%) 107.24 (±0.5%)
348
Israel
310 (±0.6%) 2.07 (±4.1%) 14.215 (±1.8%) 104.48 (±0.3%)
329
Finland
328 (±0.3%) 5.46 (±3.2%) 12.735 (±1.0%) 110.55 (±0.1%)
328
United Arab Emirates
316 (±0.5%) 1.16 (±14.5%) 15.676 (±1.2%) 121.92 (±0.2%)
288
Korea - South
277 (±0.2%) 2.68 (±1.6%) 14.277 (±0.7%) 80.20 (±0.2%)
284
Azerbaijan
27817139 (±185.9%) 5.10 (±10.2%) 108.999 (±7.6%) 651.16 (±10.5%)
264
Kazakhstan
11830493 (±516.3%) 2.20 (±7.6%) 96.991 (±22.8%) 581.23 (±30.5%)
262
Bulgaria
342 (±2.7%) 7.18 (±4.9%) 29.607 (±1.9%) 145.81 (±1.0%)
252
Norway
242 (±0.3%) 3.35 (±4.0%) 11.658 (±1.1%) 98.12 (±0.2%)
243
El Salvador
5459402 (±260.8%) 4.45 (±5.7%) 88.934 (±12.5%) 532.96 (±16.3%)
242
Morocco
214 (±0.7%) 3.52 (±6.8%) 13.376 (±2.1%) 98.38 (±0.4%)
236
Oman
1166 (±10.4%) 1.99 (±10.9%) 38.064 (±2.7%) 215.95 (±2.0%)
214
Bosnia and Herzegovina
198 (±1.3%) 8.50 (±4.1%) 20.202 (±2.1%) 119.63 (±0.5%)
193
Greece
187 (±0.5%) 6.83 (±2.9%) 15.593 (±1.5%) 97.59 (±0.3%)
189
Congo (Kinshasa)
1674 (±26.3%) 1.27 (±33.7%) 54.312 (±5.5%) 258.74 (±5.9%)
186
British Columbia, Canada
177 (±0.4%) 8.32 (±3.1%) 16.906 (±0.9%) 105.64 (±0.2%)
173
Kenya
379 (±4.7%) 2.60 (±20.7%) 34.244 (±2.0%) 179.46 (±1.3%)
161
Alberta, Canada
156 (±0.3%) 2.65 (±7.4%) 15.614 (±0.8%) 110.30 (±0.2%)
144
Mauritania
145 (±0.8%) 3.17 (±15.8%) 13.648 (±1.2%) 158.72 (±0.1%)
143
Senegal
1338 (±23.6%) fiterr (±err) 47.363 (±4.8%) 248.64 (±4.5%)
142
Qatar
326 (±10.5%) fiterr (±err) 30.910 (±4.3%) 183.26 (±2.3%)
129
Ghana
1563212 (±349.8%) 0.72 (±43.2%) 102.687 (±18.3%) 590.47 (±24.7%)
128
Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania
126 (±0.3%) fiterr (±err) 12.182 (±1.0%) 98.62 (±0.2%)
123
Haiti
207 (±3.9%) fiterr (±err) 27.277 (±2.2%) 168.82 (±0.9%)
122
Kyrgyzstan
5396636 (±794.0%) 6.64 (±7.6%) 90.360 (±34.5%) 549.59 (±45.3%)
121
Malaysia
118 (±0.4%) 1.83 (±12.0%) 12.466 (±1.4%) 92.62 (±0.3%)
120
Ethiopia
131 (±3.1%) fiterr (±err) 15.367 (±3.4%) 165.05 (±0.4%)
115
Croatia
109 (±0.4%) 5.52 (±3.4%) 14.073 (±1.0%) 108.91 (±0.2%)
111
Slovenia
109 (±0.2%) 7.54 (±1.7%) 12.039 (±0.7%) 99.86 (±0.1%)
110
Luxembourg
110 (±0.3%) 3.06 (±2.9%) 12.702 (±0.9%) 96.83 (±0.2%)
103
Bahrain
2937793 (±440.8%) 0.31 (±45.1%) 95.839 (±20.8%) 568.45 (±27.6%)
92
Somalia
93 (±0.7%) 4.58 (±6.3%) 16.212 (±1.5%) 125.15 (±0.2%)
91
Nicaragua
102 (±2.9%) 3.76 (±19.7%) 19.391 (±3.0%) 153.59 (±0.5%)
86
Cuba
85 (±0.3%) 4.24 (±1.9%) 12.126 (±0.9%) 108.14 (±0.1%)
83
Albania
14459 (±602.5%) 7.56 (±5.0%) 110.574 (±58.5%) 541.96 (±82.3%)
80
Venezuela
1127178 (±636.2%) fiterr (±err) 101.036 (±31.8%) 587.79 (±42.8%)
79
Cote d’Ivoire
241 (±16.1%) 2.70 (±10.3%) 42.426 (±5.5%) 199.05 (±4.7%)
74
Chad
73 (±0.5%) 9.05 (±4.4%) 10.660 (±1.7%) 129.44 (±0.1%)
69
Estonia
69 (±0.4%) 4.23 (±5.8%) 13.231 (±1.3%) 102.41 (±0.2%)
68
Niger
70 (±0.6%) 7.65 (±1.8%) 16.169 (±1.3%) 114.61 (±0.2%)
63
Nova Scotia, Canada
63 (±0.3%) 6.12 (±1.8%) 11.495 (±0.9%) 117.76 (±0.1%)
58
Thailand
57 (±0.2%) 1.77 (±8.9%) 9.744 (±0.9%) 95.37 (±0.1%)
56
Djibouti
62 (±1.8%) 2.45 (±9.9%) 16.685 (±2.3%) 152.86 (±0.3%)
54
Tajikistan
51 (±0.6%) 1.87 (±13.2%) 8.873 (±2.3%) 130.99 (±0.1%)
53
Burkina Faso
53 (±0.2%) 6.93 (±2.7%) 13.026 (±0.8%) 96.91 (±0.1%)
52
Andorra
51 (±0.4%) 6.87 (±1.7%) 12.196 (±1.3%) 97.23 (±0.2%)
51
Uzbekistan
7623 (±452.5%) 1.13 (±26.0%) 92.194 (±42.8%) 470.53 (±57.0%)
50
Tunisia
49 (±0.5%) 4.90 (±2.7%) 11.949 (±1.7%) 95.17 (±0.3%)
49
New South Wales, Australia
49 (±0.5%) 1.45 (±8.7%) 14.603 (±1.5%) 98.64 (±0.3%)
48
Channel Islands, United Kingdom
47 (±0.5%) 8.68 (±0.9%) 11.089 (±1.7%) 106.19 (±0.2%)
47
Congo (Brazzaville)
578 (±50.7%) 6.33 (±11.6%) 60.124 (±9.5%) 284.02 (±10.9%)
46
Gabon
102 (±8.7%) 1.38 (±23.3%) 31.906 (±3.9%) 177.77 (±2.2%)
42
Liberia
40 (±1.9%) 9.07 (±7.6%) 21.510 (±2.9%) 122.82 (±0.7%)
38
Libya
853504 (±523.7%) fiterr (±err) 79.236 (±24.9%) 486.56 (±31.3%)
37
Mayotte, France
38 (±2.0%) 3.15 (±13.4%) 20.915 (±2.5%) 135.83 (±0.5%)
36
Guinea
38 (±3.1%) 1.34 (±15.3%) 23.287 (±3.6%) 135.48 (±0.9%)
35
Nepal
47 (±3.2%) fiterr (±err) 19.815 (±2.5%) 165.29 (±0.5%)
33
Madagascar
9692 (±308.6%) fiterr (±err) 61.260 (±27.5%) 357.04 (±30.3%)
30
Latvia
31 (±1.3%) 3.48 (±4.5%) 18.343 (±2.5%) 118.00 (±0.5%)
29
Uruguay
27 (±1.3%) 4.65 (±4.9%) 18.796 (±2.7%) 109.07 (±0.6%)
28
Slovakia
28 (±0.3%) 2.37 (±6.6%) 9.430 (±1.4%) 109.62 (±0.1%)
26
Singapore
26 (±0.5%) fiterr (±err) 16.970 (±1.3%) 107.04 (±0.3%)
25
Costa Rica
447 (±178.5%) 2.24 (±12.4%) 76.872 (±28.3%) 349.30 (±37.1%)
24
Isle of Man, United Kingdom
24 (±0.4%) 7.23 (±1.5%) 7.023 (±2.2%) 110.35 (±0.1%)
23
Benin
575 (±115.5%) 2.52 (±54.3%) 46.551 (±17.4%) 269.20 (±15.8%)
22
Victoria, Australia
19 (±0.7%) 1.44 (±14.3%) 11.093 (±3.1%) 94.07 (±0.5%)
20
Paraguay
27 (±20.3%) 3.25 (±11.5%) 39.395 (±14.3%) 136.57 (±11.7%)
19
Cyprus
18 (±0.9%) 2.17 (±5.7%) 15.426 (±3.1%) 91.79 (±0.7%)

For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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