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Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

6 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Thu Aug 5 04:17:37 UTC 2021

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_dead death rate (err) death_rate deaths_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
1047031
South America, South America
1836917 (±3.8%) 5.88 (±2.3%) 124.779 (±2.0%) 460.94 (±2.0%)
925498
North America, North America
1055205 (±0.9%) 2.95 (±3.1%) 83.808 (±1.0%) 305.65 (±0.6%)
558432
Brazil
1331067 (±5.9%) 5.69 (±2.4%) 140.760 (±2.4%) 537.23 (±2.6%)
492324
South Asia, South Asia
7481169 (±45.3%) 3.19 (±2.0%) 219.346 (±7.8%) 971.33 (±10.3%)
217389
East Europe, East Europe
271725 (±0.6%) 4.11 (±5.8%) 91.801 (±0.5%) 405.60 (±0.3%)
208492
Middle East, Middle East
236737 (±0.8%) 3.18 (±3.9%) 89.521 (±0.7%) 339.39 (±0.5%)
172515
Africa, Africa
185922 (±1.1%) 5.61 (±2.4%) 89.223 (±1.0%) 362.60 (±0.6%)
128115
Italy
178929 (±2.7%) fiterr (±err) 106.540 (±2.2%) 342.85 (±2.0%)
106447
Argentina
136372 (±3.5%) 4.50 (±2.1%) 101.864 (±2.4%) 412.16 (±1.7%)
31644
Ecuador
25874 (±2.4%) 8.94 (±1.9%) 89.652 (±2.8%) 287.58 (±2.0%)
26569
Canada, Canada
32580 (±2.1%) 2.09 (±23.7%) 97.560 (±2.2%) 295.98 (±1.8%)
25251
Belgium
28595 (±1.6%) 1.49 (±54.2%) 88.019 (±2.2%) 236.71 (±1.7%)
23575
Pakistan
41485 (±4.4%) 4.77 (±2.0%) 126.604 (±2.4%) 449.98 (±2.4%)
21397
Bangladesh
43046 (±11.9%) 4.30 (±2.0%) 151.803 (±4.7%) 555.44 (±5.5%)
18865
Iraq
16077 (±0.6%) 3.09 (±3.4%) 54.569 (±1.3%) 238.53 (±0.5%)
18225
Bulgaria
20246 (±0.7%) fiterr (±err) 64.900 (±1.0%) 378.86 (±0.3%)
17882
Bolivia
16721 (±1.5%) 8.18 (±2.0%) 76.620 (±2.1%) 283.93 (±1.1%)
12541
Slovakia
13152 (±0.2%) 4.30 (±2.6%) 47.573 (±0.5%) 397.41 (±0.1%)
10742
Austria
7865001004 (±1316.1%) fiterr (±err) 555.405 (±45.9%) 3260.35 (±68.4%)
10071
Jordan
11625 (±1.4%) 2.13 (±2.7%) 70.731 (±1.6%) 392.04 (±0.5%)
9689
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11861 (±1.1%) 4.38 (±3.6%) 77.580 (±1.2%) 388.52 (±0.4%)
9077
Kazakhstan
17850 (±6.9%) 3.40 (±4.6%) 124.946 (±3.2%) 501.19 (±3.0%)
6804
Afghanistan
22954623 (±444.0%) 13.03 (±1.5%) 429.737 (±26.8%) 2302.89 (±38.6%)
5494
North Macedonia
7040 (±1.2%) 2.51 (±9.4%) 84.610 (±1.2%) 383.60 (±0.6%)
5034
Azerbaijan
5627 (±1.0%) 3.74 (±5.5%) 71.227 (±1.3%) 358.25 (±0.5%)
4621
Armenia
5023 (±0.8%) 4.03 (±3.7%) 75.707 (±1.0%) 322.40 (±0.4%)
4395
Ethiopia
5914 (±2.3%) 2.30 (±5.4%) 96.373 (±1.8%) 387.42 (±1.2%)
4370
Algeria
3849 (±0.7%) 4.07 (±2.9%) 74.841 (±1.0%) 245.43 (±0.6%)
3968
Dominican Republic
3882 (±0.8%) 2.26 (±3.3%) 72.780 (±1.4%) 245.34 (±0.8%)
3483
Belarus
4901 (±1.2%) 2.73 (±3.5%) 109.554 (±0.8%) 406.61 (±0.7%)
2993
Cuba
3449063256 (±418.8%) 2.04 (±29.3%) 344.458 (±13.1%) 2141.52 (±18.4%)
2550
Denmark
3266 (±2.8%) fiterr (±err) 90.455 (±2.9%) 325.06 (±1.9%)
2457
Albania
2762 (±0.7%) 2.15 (±4.6%) 66.563 (±1.0%) 349.35 (±0.3%)
2328
Alberta, Canada
2356 (±0.7%) fiterr (±err) 52.764 (±1.4%) 347.39 (±0.3%)
2163
Nigeria
2275 (±1.2%) 2.45 (±3.2%) 76.154 (±1.9%) 247.85 (±1.1%)
1653
Botswana
2662 (±4.7%) 3.07 (±5.9%) 90.333 (±2.3%) 524.77 (±1.1%)
1631
Montenegro
1864 (±0.6%) 1.40 (±6.9%) 70.330 (±0.7%) 369.08 (±0.2%)
1407
Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania
1036 (±0.6%) 6.47 (±3.5%) 29.437 (±2.6%) 219.81 (±0.5%)
1384
Bahrain
152572572 (±367.6%) 1.42 (±3.0%) 437.827 (±15.1%) 2535.52 (±21.8%)
1334
Cameroon
38206675 (±528.4%) 4.07 (±2.4%) 498.557 (±25.6%) 2769.46 (±37.5%)
1045
Congo (Kinshasa)
1109 (±1.7%) 6.11 (±2.5%) 89.403 (±1.8%) 327.52 (±1.1%)
1022
Angola
1365 (±3.5%) 3.89 (±2.6%) 105.369 (±2.3%) 421.23 (±1.7%)
827
Mongolia
1447 (±3.3%) 1.75 (±46.2%) 58.100 (±1.8%) 544.42 (±0.4%)
799
Norway
1209 (±3.8%) 3.94 (±4.1%) 119.392 (±2.8%) 353.94 (±3.0%)
560
Haiti
1403 (±40.5%) 5.38 (±1.4%) 195.980 (±14.6%) 637.64 (±21.6%)
534
Mali
797 (±3.0%) 6.91 (±3.9%) 107.877 (±2.2%) 389.36 (±1.8%)
338
Belize
328 (±0.2%) 3.27 (±4.5%) 35.607 (±0.7%) 324.66 (±0.1%)
298
Cabo Verde
490 (±3.4%) 1.91 (±4.4%) 112.232 (±2.0%) 445.71 (±1.6%)
291
Bahamas
234 (±1.0%) 3.60 (±2.6%) 58.589 (±2.0%) 275.75 (±0.7%)
234
Guinea
745 (±16.4%) 2.18 (±3.5%) 183.646 (±5.2%) 670.48 (±6.9%)
227
Gambia
173 (±0.9%) 4.98 (±1.6%) 51.613 (±2.4%) 245.55 (±0.9%)
222
Maldives
100431168 (±574.7%) 1.61 (±7.3%) 437.545 (±20.4%) 2601.39 (±29.6%)
196
Niger
261 (±3.6%) 2.61 (±62.9%) 103.515 (±3.4%) 310.88 (±2.9%)
189
French Guiana, France
411 (±20.4%) 1.26 (±4.0%) 165.441 (±8.1%) 564.74 (±10.6%)
178
Congo (Brazzaville)
168 (±1.2%) 2.14 (±3.3%) 76.562 (±1.9%) 242.82 (±1.1%)
174
Chad
237 (±3.3%) 3.42 (±19.7%) 118.375 (±3.3%) 275.84 (±3.6%)
169
Burkina Faso
259 (±4.4%) 1.79 (±17.7%) 120.392 (±3.3%) 354.41 (±3.5%)
156
Djibouti
1438381 (±743.6%) 2.84 (±3.9%) 506.272 (±41.7%) 2727.58 (±61.0%)
155
Togo
376853699 (±1166.8%) 2.39 (±8.3%) 645.051 (±36.0%) 3841.89 (±54.5%)
154
French Polynesia, France
143 (±0.1%) 1.02 (±13.0%) 34.088 (±0.4%) 318.93 (±0.1%)
129
Martinique, France
38563173 (±530.8%) fiterr (±err) 546.965 (±19.5%) 3184.59 (±29.0%)
128
Andorra
161 (±2.3%) fiterr (±err) 107.212 (±2.5%) 251.58 (±2.6%)
123
Equatorial Guinea
102 (±0.8%) 2.09 (±2.4%) 36.547 (±3.0%) 182.05 (±1.0%)
108
Benin
150 (±4.1%) 1.88 (±18.4%) 106.829 (±3.2%) 363.66 (±2.7%)
98
Central African Republic
74 (±1.1%) 1.84 (±5.2%) 25.649 (±5.9%) 174.52 (±1.3%)
93
Nova Scotia, Canada
70 (±0.6%) 6.32 (±2.0%) 14.613 (±5.3%) 119.37 (±0.9%)
89
Saint Lucia
87 (±0.4%) 0.83 (±40.1%) 42.234 (±0.9%) 418.93 (±0.1%)
78
Guinea-Bissau
77 (±1.9%) 3.26 (±3.2%) 87.477 (±2.8%) 244.68 (±1.8%)
71
New South Wales, Australia
53 (±0.3%) 1.60 (±2.7%) 17.012 (±1.8%) 100.43 (±0.5%)
48
Barbados
18331187 (±1072.9%) 2.79 (±33.8%) 514.669 (±39.7%) 3003.71 (±58.5%)
46
New Brunswick, Canada
53 (±1.2%) 2.34 (±39.8%) 66.766 (±1.4%) 403.98 (±0.4%)
22
Henan, China
22 (±0.1%) 1.75 (±1.3%) 5.513 (±0.9%) 42.12 (±0.2%)

For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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