Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.
Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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Actualisation date: Wed Jan 20 05:16:30 UTC 2021
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| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_dead | death rate (err) | death_rate | deaths_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 2040107 World total, World total | 2199547 (±2.5%) |  | 4.44 (±4.4%) |  |  | 65.073 (±1.9%) | 239.38 (±1.5%) |
| 2035309 World without China, World without China | 2221272 (±2.6%) |  | 4.41 (±4.3%) |  |  | 65.671 (±1.9%) | 241.42 (±1.5%) |
| 579643 North America, North America | 509808 (±1.9%) |  | 5.88 (±5.2%) |  |  | 56.583 (±2.0%) | 202.61 (±1.3%) |
| 433132 Europe, Europe | 42378365 (±324.4%) |  | 5.69 (±60.0%) |  |  | 230.103 (±34.5%) | 1078.34 (±50.5%) |
| 399003 USA, USA | 334553 (±2.5%) |  | 5.88 (±5.5%) |  |  | 57.413 (±2.8%) | 190.44 (±1.9%) |
| 372878 South America, South America | 349562 (±0.4%) |  | 4.86 (±3.0%) |  |  | 44.305 (±0.5%) | 210.43 (±0.2%) |
| 210299 Brazil | 186545 (±0.5%) |  | 4.52 (±2.7%) |  |  | 41.447 (±0.8%) | 193.93 (±0.3%) |
| 176161 South Asia, South Asia | 186256 (±0.2%) |  | 2.43 (±4.1%) |  |  | 45.276 (±0.3%) | 233.88 (±0.1%) |
| 115759 Middle East, Middle East | 207525 (±3.2%) |  | 4.93 (±4.1%) |  |  | 78.708 (±1.5%) | 311.90 (±1.4%) |
| 88497 East Europe, East Europe | 1495273 (±34.0%) |  | 6.37 (±3.4%) |  |  | 133.391 (±5.4%) | 622.56 (±6.8%) |
| 79408 Africa, Africa | 69172 (±1.5%) |  | 4.42 (±1.2%) |  |  | 53.038 (±1.4%) | 238.46 (±0.7%) |
| 49004 Colombia | 43254 (±0.7%) |  | 4.19 (±1.4%) |  |  | 42.870 (±1.0%) | 235.83 (±0.3%) |
| 45832 Argentina | 50111 (±0.9%) |  | 3.67 (±2.6%) |  |  | 40.988 (±1.0%) | 272.15 (±0.2%) |
| 38770 Peru | 37077 (±0.4%) |  | 5.64 (±2.9%) |  |  | 33.777 (±0.8%) | 193.77 (±0.2%) |
| 36898 South-East Asia, South-East Asia | 44454 (±0.9%) |  | 3.82 (±5.3%) |  |  | 62.679 (±0.6%) | 275.53 (±0.4%) |
| 33407 Poland | 295362194 (±263.5%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 162.178 (±14.0%) | 962.34 (±17.9%) |
| 24161 Turkey | 11126251 (±237.8%) |  | 8.81 (±3.0%) |  |  | 236.404 (±19.0%) | 1199.52 (±27.2%) |
| 21847 Ukraine | 1352374 (±23.3%) |  | 2.51 (±10.6%) |  |  | 131.915 (±2.7%) | 684.99 (±3.2%) |
| 20472 Belgium | 79319 (±82.1%) |  | 6.36 (±65.0%) |  |  | 146.847 (±25.6%) | 482.01 (±40.5%) |
| 18130 Canada, Canada | 10759 (±1.1%) |  | 11.73 (±2.8%) |  |  | 26.179 (±3.8%) | 128.14 (±1.3%) |
| 14322 Ecuador | 16005 (±1.8%) |  | 7.00 (±3.4%) |  |  | 49.984 (±2.2%) | 207.47 (±1.0%) |
| 11055 Pakistan | 7779 (±1.1%) |  | 3.51 (±2.4%) |  |  | 32.064 (±2.7%) | 167.14 (±0.8%) |
| 10456 East Asia, East Asia | 6861 (±0.7%) |  | 7.55 (±2.2%) |  |  | 26.845 (±2.7%) | 67.77 (±2.5%) |
| 9680 Bolivia | 9389 (±0.5%) |  | 6.83 (±0.5%) |  |  | 32.397 (±1.2%) | 217.10 (±0.2%) |
| 8792 Switzerland | 11156652 (±653.0%) |  | 17.29 (±3.7%) |  |  | 258.433 (±44.2%) | 1354.68 (±63.4%) |
| 8638 Egypt | 6647 (±0.5%) |  | 7.82 (±1.0%) |  |  | 31.357 (±1.2%) | 175.52 (±0.3%) |
| 8565 Bulgaria | 2711024396 (±365.4%) |  | 8.86 (±43.6%) |  |  | 189.180 (±13.1%) | 1171.57 (±17.8%) |
| 7922 Bangladesh | 7418 (±0.6%) |  | 2.41 (±2.3%) |  |  | 43.585 (±0.9%) | 208.24 (±0.3%) |
| 7122 Austria | 9331878957 (±923.2%) |  | 8.71 (±55.4%) |  |  | 227.176 (±28.7%) | 1406.13 (±40.8%) |
| 6329 Saudi Arabia | 6245 (±0.4%) |  | 2.49 (±4.4%) |  |  | 40.013 (±0.6%) | 201.54 (±0.2%) |
| 5750 Tunisia | 5626 (±1.1%) |  | 4.89 (±4.6%) |  |  | 32.984 (±1.0%) | 316.62 (±0.1%) |
| 5278 Guatemala | 4515 (±0.8%) |  | 5.11 (±1.3%) |  |  | 39.213 (±1.3%) | 211.25 (±0.4%) |
| 4828 Panama | 3774 (±1.3%) |  | 3.21 (±5.8%) |  |  | 48.026 (±1.5%) | 218.66 (±0.6%) |
| 4798 China total, China total | 4694 (±0.4%) |  | 5.53 (±0.6%) |  |  | 16.155 (±2.0%) | 51.36 (±1.4%) |
| 4512 Hubei, China | 4505 (±0.4%) |  | 6.67 (±0.6%) |  |  | 15.946 (±2.0%) | 51.10 (±1.4%) |
| 4486 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 384926480 (±208.3%) |  | 6.86 (±6.4%) |  |  | 218.360 (±8.6%) | 1294.78 (±11.9%) |
| 3771 Serbia | 62368913 (±542.7%) |  | 7.21 (±10.8%) |  |  | 231.048 (±26.1%) | 1321.06 (±36.5%) |
| 3526 Slovakia | 13069 (±13.1%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 59.223 (±3.0%) | 411.17 (±1.7%) |
| 3267 Moldova | 6464 (±4.9%) |  | 4.33 (±3.6%) |  |  | 82.247 (±2.0%) | 337.66 (±1.9%) |
| 3022 Azerbaijan | 262140528 (±485.8%) |  | 5.06 (±3.3%) |  |  | 237.728 (±19.6%) | 1400.50 (±27.7%) |
| 2998 Armenia | 43486 (±47.9%) |  | 4.67 (±3.0%) |  |  | 129.131 (±8.2%) | 592.21 (±10.3%) |
| 2958 Georgia | 1940499885 (±477.8%) |  | 1.16 (±6.1%) |  |  | 173.368 (±15.9%) | 1101.19 (±21.3%) |
| 2891 Kazakhstan | 2444 (±0.6%) |  | 1.64 (±8.1%) |  |  | 27.639 (±1.6%) | 212.86 (±0.3%) |
| 2840 Algeria | 3226 (±2.1%) |  | 4.81 (±4.8%) |  |  | 62.356 (±1.9%) | 217.37 (±1.4%) |
| 2616 Ireland | 1865 (±0.5%) |  | 7.63 (±2.3%) |  |  | 15.001 (±2.7%) | 110.38 (±0.5%) |
| 2469 Lithuania | 131155953 (±443.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 154.592 (±18.0%) | 971.42 (±23.0%) |
| 2458 Costa Rica | 2509 (±0.7%) |  | 2.65 (±4.4%) |  |  | 45.017 (±0.7%) | 277.03 (±0.2%) |
| 2448 Dominican Republic | 2552 (±0.7%) |  | 2.64 (±5.4%) |  |  | 42.581 (±1.1%) | 190.57 (±0.4%) |
| 2343 Afghanistan | 1765 (±1.0%) |  | 5.83 (±0.8%) |  |  | 33.238 (±2.4%) | 175.70 (±0.7%) |
| 2033 Ethiopia | 1927 (±0.6%) |  | 1.98 (±12.2%) |  |  | 38.139 (±0.9%) | 240.97 (±0.2%) |
| 1965 Nepal | 2917 (±1.4%) |  | 3.30 (±7.1%) |  |  | 50.606 (±0.9%) | 311.40 (±0.3%) |
| 1959 Lebanon | 3626 (±2.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 66.133 (±1.0%) | 357.65 (±0.6%) |
| 1805 Denmark | 925 (±3.9%) |  | 9.17 (±3.5%) |  |  | 55.170 (±7.1%) | 113.44 (±5.6%) |
| 1734 Kenya | 3307 (±4.5%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 69.973 (±2.2%) | 318.77 (±1.6%) |
| 1726 West Bank and Gaza | 126949 (±53.1%) |  | 4.64 (±5.9%) |  |  | 131.782 (±5.7%) | 699.24 (±6.8%) |
| 1591 Belarus | 1595 (±2.0%) |  | 2.30 (±4.1%) |  |  | 59.474 (±1.8%) | 228.04 (±1.1%) |
| 1514 Oman | 1705 (±0.5%) |  | 1.13 (±7.6%) |  |  | 46.172 (±0.6%) | 238.74 (±0.2%) |
| 1447 Alberta, Canada | 105943558 (±663.6%) |  | 9.61 (±4.0%) |  |  | 280.707 (±26.7%) | 1630.14 (±38.6%) |
| 1410 Kosovo | 1914 (±6.0%) |  | 5.99 (±3.1%) |  |  | 62.673 (±3.6%) | 290.23 (±2.3%) |
| 1283 Korea - South | 19847 (±161.3%) |  | 8.24 (±2.6%) |  |  | 204.588 (±24.6%) | 862.06 (±37.0%) |
| 1281 Albania | 16444 (±23.8%) |  | 0.67 (±67.7%) |  |  | 115.624 (±4.1%) | 553.20 (±4.8%) |
| 1078 British Columbia, Canada | 64009617 (±1005.6%) |  | 6.02 (±30.3%) |  |  | 299.367 (±41.8%) | 1719.46 (±60.9%) |
| 983 Latvia | 1986344 (±245.1%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 124.570 (±14.8%) | 769.71 (±17.0%) |
| 945 Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania | 964 (±0.8%) |  | 6.14 (±3.6%) |  |  | 24.066 (±2.7%) | 219.49 (±0.3%) |
| 841 Syria | 4422 (±16.9%) |  | 12.21 (±2.6%) |  |  | 92.132 (±3.8%) | 457.07 (±3.7%) |
| 773 Manitoba, Canada | 1399 (±4.3%) |  | 4.09 (±36.4%) |  |  | 39.925 (±2.0%) | 351.39 (±0.5%) |
| 751 United Arab Emirates | 633 (±2.5%) |  | 1.50 (±7.0%) |  |  | 52.529 (±3.6%) | 169.33 (±2.0%) |
| 634 Congo (Kinshasa) | 433 (±3.4%) |  | 5.81 (±1.6%) |  |  | 51.752 (±4.2%) | 197.59 (±2.2%) |
| 619 Uzbekistan | 635 (±0.2%) |  | 1.12 (±26.1%) |  |  | 33.140 (±0.4%) | 229.44 (±0.1%) |
| 605 Malaysia | 18188426 (±726.1%) |  | 5.44 (±3.4%) |  |  | 309.076 (±33.3%) | 1738.93 (±48.6%) |
| 557 Luxembourg | 1833705 (±632.1%) |  | 8.33 (±3.6%) |  |  | 258.008 (±37.7%) | 1393.23 (±53.8%) |
| 521 Norway | 289 (±1.1%) |  | 4.69 (±3.5%) |  |  | 19.001 (±5.2%) | 101.92 (±1.6%) |
| 455 Cameroon | 432 (±0.2%) |  | 2.06 (±3.6%) |  |  | 25.750 (±0.8%) | 144.43 (±0.2%) |
| 439 Angola | 493 (±0.8%) |  | 3.95 (±5.8%) |  |  | 47.639 (±0.7%) | 270.87 (±0.2%) |
| 360 Bahrain | 383 (±0.8%) |  | 0.64 (±10.8%) |  |  | 44.096 (±1.1%) | 216.27 (±0.4%) |
| 326 Jamaica | 307 (±0.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 32.507 (±1.3%) | 277.18 (±0.2%) |
| 304 Uganda | 470 (±5.7%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 57.262 (±2.9%) | 327.60 (±1.4%) |
| 293 Namibia | 161 (±1.2%) |  | 3.34 (±7.6%) |  |  | 28.571 (±2.8%) | 239.68 (±0.4%) |
| 282 Belize | 1344 (±13.1%) |  | 6.02 (±6.5%) |  |  | 67.664 (±3.3%) | 410.57 (±2.2%) |
| 249 Mozambique | 236 (±2.0%) |  | 3.60 (±8.1%) |  |  | 52.722 (±1.3%) | 300.63 (±0.5%) |
| 248 Qatar | 234 (±0.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 29.164 (±0.9%) | 171.37 (±0.2%) |
| 241 Malta | 3677 (±26.7%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 92.880 (±4.5%) | 508.98 (±4.2%) |
| 240 Haiti | 758795750 (±4653.6%) |  | 2.98 (±2.0%) |  |  | 471.874 (±144.5%) | 2797.57 (±219.7%) |
| 175 Bahamas | 183 (±1.2%) |  | 3.63 (±5.5%) |  |  | 35.061 (±1.9%) | 257.16 (±0.3%) |
| 170 Guyana | 199 (±2.0%) |  | 1.10 (±43.9%) |  |  | 45.050 (±2.0%) | 266.87 (±0.6%) |
| 156 Guadeloupe, France | 161 (±1.5%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 26.739 (±3.1%) | 274.31 (±0.3%) |
| 146 Rwanda | 162 (±12.2%) |  | 3.14 (±11.9%) |  |  | 71.944 (±5.0%) | 347.70 (±3.7%) |
| 145 Niger | 72 (±0.6%) |  | 12.74 (±1.7%) |  |  | 17.147 (±3.0%) | 115.34 (±0.7%) |
| 132 Trinidad and Tobago | 125 (±0.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 27.904 (±1.9%) | 255.45 (±0.2%) |
| 127 French Polynesia, France | 152 (±2.2%) |  | 1.32 (±25.4%) |  |  | 36.195 (±1.7%) | 321.70 (±0.3%) |
| 120 Cabo Verde | 140 (±1.7%) |  | 2.04 (±10.4%) |  |  | 48.723 (±1.6%) | 254.92 (±0.6%) |
| 114 Congo (Brazzaville) | 100 (±0.8%) |  | 2.04 (±6.7%) |  |  | 35.218 (±1.8%) | 179.14 (±0.5%) |
| 113 Chad | 97 (±1.4%) |  | 10.01 (±2.1%) |  |  | 37.225 (±5.0%) | 120.41 (±2.9%) |
| 105 Burkina Faso | 61 (±0.8%) |  | 8.22 (±3.5%) |  |  | 17.859 (±4.2%) | 99.57 (±1.2%) |
| 101 Lesotho | 46 (±0.9%) |  | 6.64 (±4.8%) |  |  | 28.082 (±2.5%) | 217.24 (±0.4%) |
| 91 Andorra | 101 (±9.9%) |  | 7.20 (±3.6%) |  |  | 81.708 (±11.1%) | 129.69 (±17.7%) |
| 88 Botswana | 50 (±1.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 45.293 (±1.6%) | 286.47 (±0.5%) |
| 84 Liberia | 85 (±0.7%) |  | 5.36 (±2.7%) |  |  | 30.144 (±2.0%) | 157.79 (±0.6%) |
| 81 Guinea | 81 (±0.4%) |  | 1.12 (±4.2%) |  |  | 41.772 (±0.7%) | 177.52 (±0.3%) |
| 78 Channel Islands, United Kingdom | 48 (±0.3%) |  | 11.22 (±1.9%) |  |  | 11.754 (±2.0%) | 106.49 (±0.3%) |
| 74 Togo | 95 (±2.6%) |  | 3.44 (±9.1%) |  |  | 61.491 (±2.0%) | 250.32 (±1.3%) |
| 65 Nova Scotia, Canada | 64 (±0.1%) |  | 5.88 (±0.9%) |  |  | 12.121 (±0.8%) | 118.13 (±0.1%) |
| 63 Central African Republic | 62 (±0.2%) |  | 1.21 (±11.4%) |  |  | 13.191 (±1.5%) | 171.23 (±0.1%) |
| 61 Djibouti | 61 (±0.2%) |  | 1.52 (±5.5%) |  |  | 16.429 (±0.8%) | 152.23 (±0.1%) |
| 58 Mayotte, France | 46 (±0.7%) |  | 1.95 (±7.9%) |  |  | 28.671 (±2.2%) | 143.01 (±0.7%) |
| 54 New South Wales, Australia | 52 (±0.2%) |  | 1.40 (±3.9%) |  |  | 15.896 (±1.3%) | 99.64 (±0.3%) |
| 52 Aruba, Netherlands | 49 (±1.0%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 32.333 (±1.8%) | 257.10 (±0.3%) |
| 49 Comoros | 7 (±0.6%) |  | 8.09 (±29.3%) |  |  | 14.478 (±3.8%) | 159.24 (±0.4%) |
| 46 Benin | 42 (±0.3%) |  | 2.12 (±16.9%) |  |  | 21.129 (±1.2%) | 178.07 (±0.2%) |
| 45 Reunion, France | 83 (±6.6%) |  | 4.84 (±5.0%) |  |  | 60.781 (±3.4%) | 321.14 (±1.9%) |
| 43 Martinique, France | 180070 (±560.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 300.286 (±34.5%) | 1590.50 (±50.3%) |
| 25 New Zealand | 23 (±0.4%) |  | 1.51 (±2.2%) |  |  | 10.105 (±3.3%) | 106.65 (±0.4%) |
| 22 Henan, China | 22 (±0.1%) |  | 1.80 (±2.0%) |  |  | 5.514 (±1.1%) | 42.12 (±0.2%) |
| 19 Curacao, Netherlands | 374 (±118.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 72.363 (±17.6%) | 476.94 (±13.0%) |
For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.