Labor am Elm

Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

9 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Fri Aug 14 19:32:42 UTC 2020

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_dead death rate (err) death_rate deaths_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
749366
World total, World total
778309 (±1.7%) 7.06 (±5.2%) 30.974 (±1.9%) 137.02 (±0.8%)
744669
World without China, World without China
773494 (±1.8%) 7.07 (±5.3%) 30.904 (±2.0%) 137.54 (±0.9%)
237910
North America, North America
232585 (±1.5%) 7.95 (±4.5%) 27.675 (±2.0%) 133.21 (±0.7%)
166034
USA, USA
149566 (±0.9%) 7.08 (±4.4%) 22.135 (±1.9%) 119.11 (±0.5%)
159129
South America, South America
239752 (±1.5%) 4.58 (±2.6%) 34.877 (±0.9%) 185.86 (±0.5%)
139608
Europe, Europe
135364 (±0.2%) 11.26 (±1.3%) 14.277 (±0.7%) 98.30 (±0.1%)
104201
Brazil
129448 (±1.0%) 4.65 (±3.3%) 30.824 (±0.8%) 170.67 (±0.3%)
58152
South Asia, South Asia
112270 (±2.1%) 3.25 (±4.9%) 37.446 (±1.0%) 205.56 (±0.5%)
54666
Mexico
73945 (±0.8%) 12.54 (±2.5%) 31.277 (±0.6%) 181.70 (±0.2%)
47033
India
128066 (±3.6%) fiterr (±err) 41.983 (±1.3%) 226.14 (±0.9%)
46706
United Kingdom
44929 (±0.4%) 16.54 (±0.8%) 17.027 (±1.1%) 109.40 (±0.2%)
36798
Middle East, Middle East
63810 (±6.3%) 4.89 (±5.0%) 45.830 (±3.2%) 185.40 (±2.8%)
35225
Italy
34698 (±0.2%) 15.25 (±0.9%) 14.829 (±0.7%) 93.00 (±0.2%)
30247
France
29607 (±0.2%) 15.64 (±0.8%) 12.424 (±0.8%) 99.38 (±0.1%)
24171
Africa, Africa
82525 (±3.1%) 3.03 (±4.3%) 48.518 (±1.0%) 239.92 (±0.8%)
21501
Peru
54958 (±8.5%) 6.26 (±2.7%) 43.468 (±3.3%) 218.89 (±2.3%)
17825
East Europe, East Europe
21232 (±0.6%) 2.91 (±4.6%) 29.668 (±0.6%) 164.80 (±0.2%)
13837
Colombia
156776 (±7.4%) 4.15 (±4.2%) 53.442 (±1.4%) 294.75 (±1.2%)
11010
South Africa
121308 (±10.5%) 1.92 (±5.0%) 52.746 (±2.0%) 292.46 (±1.8%)
10205
Chile
11643 (±1.2%) 1.97 (±13.5%) 23.414 (±1.3%) 173.96 (±0.3%)
9900
Belgium
9721 (±0.1%) 16.14 (±0.7%) 12.317 (±0.6%) 103.32 (±0.1%)
9213
Germany
8997 (±0.2%) 5.22 (±2.1%) 13.858 (±0.7%) 104.25 (±0.1%)
9052
Canada, Canada
8971 (±0.1%) 8.86 (±1.8%) 17.203 (±0.4%) 121.24 (±0.1%)
8520
South-East Asia, South-East Asia
17620 (±6.1%) 5.19 (±3.9%) 46.754 (±2.6%) 204.53 (±2.2%)
6161
Netherlands
6110 (±0.1%) 12.74 (±1.1%) 13.486 (±0.4%) 99.95 (±0.1%)
6129
Pakistan
6980 (±1.2%) 2.60 (±5.0%) 24.289 (±1.4%) 161.95 (±0.3%)
6075
East Asia, East Asia
5974 (±0.8%) 5.76 (±1.5%) 19.723 (±2.3%) 60.53 (±1.5%)
5903
Indonesia
16164 (±5.6%) 5.68 (±4.5%) 49.406 (±2.0%) 224.88 (±1.8%)
5709
Quebec, Canada
5713 (±0.1%) 10.46 (±1.9%) 17.194 (±0.4%) 123.50 (±0.1%)
5588
Iraq
6776 (±1.1%) 4.79 (±5.4%) 23.112 (±1.0%) 187.76 (±0.2%)
5213
Argentina
25191907 (±70.8%) 1.41 (±20.9%) 108.692 (±4.1%) 623.85 (±5.3%)
4697
China total, China total
4620 (±0.7%) 5.63 (±0.9%) 15.590 (±2.8%) 50.74 (±1.8%)
3827
Bolivia
13141 (±3.7%) 5.59 (±4.7%) 41.989 (±1.2%) 236.28 (±0.8%)
3513
Bangladesh
4738 (±0.7%) 2.14 (±6.2%) 30.656 (±0.5%) 180.08 (±0.2%)
3269
Saudi Arabia
4489 (±1.8%) 2.22 (±5.6%) 30.324 (±1.3%) 182.01 (±0.5%)
2833
Ontario, Canada
2791 (±0.2%) 8.38 (±2.2%) 16.486 (±0.6%) 118.28 (±0.1%)
2404
Philippines
3329 (±6.0%) 4.57 (±11.7%) 41.098 (±3.6%) 172.33 (±2.6%)
2267
Guatemala
3430 (±1.1%) 4.94 (±8.7%) 28.477 (±0.7%) 195.24 (±0.2%)
1999
Ukraine
2508 (±2.0%) 5.28 (±5.1%) 34.283 (±1.5%) 166.82 (±0.7%)
1991
Switzerland
1957 (±0.1%) 6.42 (±2.0%) 11.855 (±0.4%) 96.44 (±0.1%)
1774
Ireland
1737 (±0.2%) 6.94 (±0.9%) 12.813 (±0.9%) 109.12 (±0.1%)
1764
Portugal
1676 (±0.5%) 5.21 (±3.0%) 18.716 (±1.4%) 108.94 (±0.4%)
1533
Honduras
9958 (±13.2%) 3.05 (±9.2%) 52.855 (±3.1%) 272.32 (±2.8%)
1371
Dominican Republic
2412 (±8.1%) 4.36 (±5.9%) 46.501 (±4.1%) 191.31 (±3.4%)
1354
Afghanistan
2618462135 (±1457.2%) 3.74 (±1.4%) 176.834 (±45.7%) 1070.46 (±67.1%)
1333
Algeria
1466 (±3.0%) 6.79 (±4.1%) 33.621 (±3.1%) 139.70 (±1.5%)
1066
Japan
1001 (±0.3%) 4.80 (±4.6%) 16.144 (±0.8%) 114.79 (±0.2%)
956
Nigeria
1168 (±0.8%) 3.84 (±6.0%) 29.407 (±0.8%) 165.95 (±0.3%)
863
Moldova
1086 (±1.1%) 5.75 (±6.0%) 32.701 (±0.9%) 164.76 (±0.4%)
806
Armenia
1002 (±1.1%) 0.68 (±45.3%) 27.227 (±0.9%) 175.38 (±0.3%)
724
Austria
694 (±0.3%) 4.26 (±1.2%) 12.811 (±1.2%) 98.64 (±0.2%)
658
Serbia
15552 (±129.1%) 4.77 (±3.1%) 93.003 (±20.1%) 420.92 (±26.7%)
639
Israel
1004 (±21.1%) 3.07 (±5.0%) 51.077 (±11.5%) 181.98 (±11.2%)
621
Denmark
605 (±0.2%) 4.89 (±2.5%) 14.178 (±0.8%) 100.52 (±0.2%)
595
Belarus
720 (±1.0%) 1.64 (±8.8%) 31.330 (±0.9%) 158.30 (±0.4%)
577
El Salvador
1554 (±5.4%) 5.11 (±8.3%) 37.820 (±2.0%) 223.96 (±1.1%)
556
Morocco
4642 (±148.8%) 5.02 (±4.1%) 90.322 (±29.9%) 372.43 (±41.3%)
530
North Macedonia
1044 (±5.0%) 5.38 (±27.5%) 41.351 (±2.5%) 196.97 (±1.7%)
528
Yemen
567 (±1.1%) 30.78 (±2.7%) 21.762 (±1.4%) 169.30 (±0.2%)
497
Azerbaijan
924 (±3.3%) 1.70 (±33.3%) 34.622 (±1.7%) 199.51 (±0.8%)
489
Kuwait
474 (±0.8%) 1.27 (±15.9%) 21.982 (±1.3%) 148.43 (±0.3%)
456
Kenya
26902 (±47.3%) 1.11 (±34.4%) 79.089 (±5.7%) 411.13 (±6.7%)
453
Bosnia and Herzegovina
5651 (±87.2%) 9.17 (±6.9%) 82.259 (±15.6%) 367.99 (±19.9%)
401
Cameroon
434 (±1.2%) 2.08 (±10.0%) 25.638 (±1.6%) 144.64 (±0.4%)
391
Czechia
358 (±0.6%) 4.12 (±3.7%) 16.031 (±1.9%) 104.59 (±0.4%)
387
Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania
26712 (±450.9%) 3.92 (±2.5%) 120.268 (±50.2%) 571.26 (±70.7%)
358
United Arab Emirates
340 (±0.5%) 1.15 (±8.5%) 17.717 (±1.4%) 123.68 (±0.3%)
341
Kosovo
1474721 (±285.1%) 5.46 (±59.7%) 93.828 (±16.7%) 553.05 (±20.9%)
333
Finland
329 (±0.2%) 5.21 (±2.6%) 12.773 (±0.8%) 110.58 (±0.1%)
305
Korea - South
286 (±0.3%) 2.70 (±1.5%) 15.154 (±1.2%) 81.03 (±0.4%)
247
Venezuela
22964 (±54.3%) fiterr (±err) 72.068 (±5.9%) 399.14 (±6.5%)
246
Zambia
596 (±19.1%) 12.16 (±6.6%) 28.929 (±7.5%) 221.67 (±2.7%)
242
Senegal
408 (±2.6%) 2.24 (±17.2%) 35.384 (±1.4%) 195.35 (±0.7%)
225
Congo (Kinshasa)
288 (±2.6%) 1.86 (±10.4%) 31.424 (±2.3%) 161.99 (±0.9%)
223
Ghana
403 (±5.9%) 1.44 (±10.9%) 38.342 (±2.9%) 199.94 (±1.7%)
217
Alberta, Canada
178 (±1.2%) 3.13 (±6.4%) 19.819 (±3.0%) 114.29 (±0.7%)
216
Greece
196 (±0.5%) 6.71 (±2.4%) 17.015 (±1.7%) 98.91 (±0.4%)
208
Albania
8395662 (±449.2%) 6.95 (±11.3%) 139.970 (±20.2%) 812.51 (±28.2%)
195
British Columbia, Canada
187 (±0.4%) 7.65 (±2.9%) 18.501 (±1.2%) 107.38 (±0.3%)
190
Qatar
211 (±1.3%) fiterr (±err) 24.651 (±1.5%) 167.04 (±0.3%)
187
Haiti
220 (±1.2%) 2.75 (±6.8%) 27.767 (±1.2%) 170.67 (±0.3%)
166
Bahrain
203 (±2.4%) 0.40 (±37.0%) 26.170 (±2.1%) 179.07 (±0.5%)
160
Croatia
130 (±1.5%) 6.17 (±2.8%) 19.861 (±3.7%) 113.55 (±0.9%)
157
Mauritania
158 (±0.3%) 2.51 (±7.3%) 15.154 (±0.9%) 160.10 (±0.1%)
156
Madagascar
2429 (±31.7%) 2.09 (±29.0%) 48.022 (±5.4%) 291.41 (±4.3%)
152
Malawi
279 (±6.6%) fiterr (±err) 23.971 (±3.5%) 211.11 (±0.8%)
129
Slovenia
113 (±0.4%) 8.06 (±1.8%) 12.805 (±1.8%) 100.40 (±0.3%)
128
Nicaragua
136 (±1.6%) 4.17 (±10.7%) 24.897 (±1.9%) 162.95 (±0.4%)
125
Malaysia
120 (±0.3%) 1.77 (±9.8%) 13.011 (±1.4%) 92.99 (±0.3%)
122
Luxembourg
112 (±0.3%) 3.05 (±2.9%) 13.077 (±1.2%) 97.13 (±0.2%)
105
Cote d’Ivoire
157 (±3.0%) 1.95 (±9.2%) 35.477 (±2.1%) 174.00 (±1.1%)
93
Paraguay
672419 (±566.1%) 2.84 (±14.1%) 112.664 (±30.2%) 652.31 (±40.1%)
91
Nepal
518 (±60.5%) fiterr (±err) 54.734 (±14.0%) 279.77 (±12.8%)
88
Cuba
86 (±0.2%) 4.04 (±1.8%) 12.379 (±0.8%) 108.29 (±0.1%)
82
Liberia
548 (±49.6%) 6.28 (±13.7%) 66.981 (±11.9%) 294.86 (±13.6%)
81
Lithuania
80 (±0.5%) 5.18 (±3.5%) 18.924 (±1.2%) 109.70 (±0.3%)
73
Montenegro
419192 (±429.0%) 14.67 (±5.4%) 106.196 (±24.1%) 615.22 (±31.4%)
69
Estonia
68 (±0.4%) 3.99 (±4.8%) 12.966 (±1.5%) 102.20 (±0.3%)
64
Nova Scotia, Canada
63 (±0.2%) 6.15 (±1.3%) 11.642 (±0.8%) 117.85 (±0.1%)
63
Hong Kong, China
122603 (±472.9%) 3.12 (±14.1%) 70.053 (±30.4%) 439.95 (±33.4%)
61
Central African Republic
58 (±0.8%) 0.97 (±39.3%) 11.446 (±2.7%) 170.77 (±0.2%)
60
Congo (Brazzaville)
84 (±3.4%) 2.09 (±18.1%) 34.963 (±2.5%) 170.62 (±1.2%)
59
Djibouti
59 (±0.5%) 2.13 (±9.0%) 15.735 (±1.3%) 151.82 (±0.2%)
58
Thailand
58 (±0.1%) 1.77 (±6.8%) 9.826 (±0.8%) 95.41 (±0.1%)
53
Andorra
52 (±0.2%) 6.70 (±1.5%) 12.295 (±1.1%) 97.31 (±0.2%)
51
New South Wales, Australia
49 (±0.4%) 1.48 (±6.8%) 14.622 (±1.3%) 98.66 (±0.3%)
50
French Guiana, France
55 (±1.7%) fiterr (±err) 18.829 (±2.1%) 187.27 (±0.2%)
48
Channel Islands, United Kingdom
47 (±0.3%) 8.54 (±0.7%) 11.145 (±1.4%) 106.21 (±0.2%)
47
South Sudan
47 (±1.2%) 2.49 (±12.0%) 17.139 (±2.8%) 158.09 (±0.3%)
42
San Marino
42 (±0.2%) 6.54 (±2.4%) 10.551 (±1.1%) 81.79 (±0.2%)
39
Mayotte, France
40 (±0.8%) 1.94 (±11.5%) 21.870 (±1.4%) 137.32 (±0.3%)
38
Benin
46 (±2.5%) 3.10 (±31.8%) 22.544 (±2.7%) 180.40 (±0.5%)
37
Uruguay
39 (±2.7%) 4.78 (±3.4%) 30.994 (±3.8%) 125.35 (±1.4%)
33
Cabo Verde
72 (±12.0%) 2.15 (±9.2%) 40.072 (±4.9%) 215.23 (±3.1%)
32
Latvia
31 (±0.7%) 3.46 (±3.8%) 19.103 (±1.7%) 118.79 (±0.4%)
31
Slovakia
28 (±0.3%) 2.31 (±6.0%) 9.593 (±1.6%) 109.70 (±0.2%)
29
Guinea-Bissau
29 (±1.3%) fiterr (±err) 20.526 (±2.3%) 156.00 (±0.4%)
27
Singapore
27 (±0.3%) fiterr (±err) 17.291 (±1.0%) 107.35 (±0.2%)
26
Togo
21 (±4.7%) 4.48 (±10.7%) 31.132 (±6.4%) 126.06 (±2.5%)
24
Isle of Man, United Kingdom
24 (±0.3%) 7.21 (±1.1%) 7.037 (±1.8%) 110.35 (±0.1%)
22
Henan, China
22 (±0.2%) fiterr (±err) 5.516 (±1.5%) 42.12 (±0.3%)
21
Maldives
42 (±14.6%) 0.53 (±73.4%) 44.529 (±6.7%) 206.47 (±4.9%)
20
Saskatchewan, Canada
22 (±3.8%) 3.66 (±6.1%) 35.127 (±3.8%) 141.75 (±1.9%)
19
Mozambique
39 (±18.5%) 2.44 (±16.5%) 38.464 (±7.7%) 217.40 (±4.3%)
18
Vietnam
29 (±38.3%) 5.28 (±3.5%) 12.311 (±22.8%) 219.90 (±1.6%)

For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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