Labor am Elm

Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

10 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Sun Oct 25 05:16:32 UTC 2020

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_dead death rate (err) death_rate deaths_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
1149202
World total, World total
1252892 (±1.4%) 4.96 (±5.6%) 44.495 (±1.5%) 174.49 (±0.9%)
1144463
World without China, World without China
1252282 (±1.5%) 4.93 (±5.6%) 44.615 (±1.5%) 175.29 (±0.9%)
337789
North America, North America
346623 (±1.2%) 6.08 (±5.0%) 39.890 (±1.6%) 161.15 (±0.8%)
273117
South America, South America
314502 (±0.5%) 4.64 (±3.1%) 40.385 (±0.5%) 201.94 (±0.2%)
224889
USA, USA
213726 (±1.3%) 5.77 (±4.9%) 35.458 (±2.1%) 141.51 (±0.9%)
165791
Europe, Europe
142188 (±0.4%) 10.65 (±2.5%) 15.663 (±1.7%) 99.34 (±0.4%)
156903
Brazil
167239 (±0.5%) 4.27 (±2.9%) 36.954 (±0.6%) 185.43 (±0.2%)
132877
South Asia, South Asia
199323 (±0.8%) 2.70 (±4.4%) 46.950 (±0.5%) 238.87 (±0.3%)
117956
India
187613 (±0.7%) 2.01 (±4.8%) 47.004 (±0.4%) 246.75 (±0.2%)
88743
Mexico
95466 (±0.5%) 11.78 (±1.3%) 37.231 (±0.6%) 195.83 (±0.2%)
65143
Middle East, Middle East
88866 (±2.0%) 4.95 (±4.7%) 53.951 (±1.3%) 214.82 (±1.0%)
44745
United Kingdom
41469 (±0.2%) 13.41 (±1.8%) 15.851 (±0.9%) 107.44 (±0.2%)
40960
Africa, Africa
46319 (±0.6%) 2.93 (±2.3%) 38.566 (±0.6%) 204.55 (±0.2%)
37210
Italy
35273 (±0.2%) 14.53 (±1.2%) 15.287 (±0.7%) 93.43 (±0.2%)
34752
Spain
29399 (±0.4%) 10.97 (±2.8%) 13.433 (±2.3%) 94.93 (±0.5%)
34236
France
30493 (±0.3%) 13.66 (±2.7%) 13.205 (±1.4%) 99.92 (±0.3%)
34033
Peru
37920 (±1.0%) 6.00 (±3.0%) 34.472 (±1.3%) 195.05 (±0.4%)
33063
East Europe, East Europe
35485 (±2.0%) 3.64 (±3.7%) 43.945 (±1.8%) 199.04 (±0.9%)
32320
Iran
44454 (±2.8%) 8.33 (±4.9%) 56.326 (±1.8%) 213.04 (±1.5%)
30000
Colombia
33993 (±0.5%) 3.09 (±1.9%) 34.209 (±0.6%) 220.48 (±0.1%)
28613
Argentina
343889 (±16.2%) 3.87 (±3.6%) 73.663 (±3.0%) 397.30 (±2.8%)
25647
Russia
25248 (±1.3%) 3.41 (±3.8%) 38.890 (±1.5%) 185.65 (±0.6%)
20450
South-East Asia, South-East Asia
50612 (±3.1%) 4.50 (±7.2%) 65.209 (±1.2%) 287.15 (±1.1%)
18944
South Africa
19596 (±0.6%) 2.54 (±1.9%) 30.074 (±0.9%) 207.97 (±0.2%)
13892
Chile
13267 (±0.5%) 3.20 (±2.9%) 27.588 (±1.0%) 179.08 (±0.2%)
13205
Indonesia
25226 (±1.8%) 4.75 (±3.2%) 58.420 (±0.8%) 260.72 (±0.6%)
12542
Ecuador
24640 (±11.0%) 8.12 (±6.6%) 62.921 (±5.4%) 252.03 (±4.8%)
10737
Belgium
9883 (±0.2%) 14.10 (±2.2%) 12.728 (±0.9%) 103.60 (±0.2%)
10568
Iraq
11414 (±0.9%) 4.16 (±4.1%) 34.840 (±1.0%) 209.62 (±0.3%)
10035
Germany
9241 (±0.2%) 4.93 (±2.1%) 14.605 (±1.1%) 104.81 (±0.2%)
9969
Canada, Canada
9236 (±0.2%) 8.30 (±1.9%) 18.120 (±0.8%) 122.04 (±0.2%)
9727
Turkey
8939 (±3.1%) 4.68 (±2.4%) 42.630 (±4.5%) 142.16 (±2.4%)
8627
Bolivia
11118 (±2.1%) 6.40 (±0.8%) 37.722 (±1.9%) 226.28 (±0.6%)
7019
Netherlands
6245 (±0.2%) 11.42 (±2.6%) 14.040 (±1.1%) 100.40 (±0.2%)
6934
Philippines
37438 (±10.9%) 1.14 (±20.1%) 80.133 (±2.7%) 363.26 (±2.9%)
6913
East Asia, East Asia
6313 (±0.6%) 5.67 (±1.8%) 21.878 (±2.0%) 63.37 (±1.5%)
6736
Pakistan
6573 (±0.3%) 2.45 (±3.1%) 22.773 (±0.8%) 159.90 (±0.2%)
6463
Ukraine
166156 (±33.1%) 4.59 (±7.5%) 108.730 (±4.8%) 523.50 (±6.0%)
6318
Romania
17613 (±8.0%) 5.28 (±17.2%) 74.609 (±2.8%) 305.06 (±2.9%)
6187
Egypt
6093 (±0.4%) 5.78 (±1.3%) 26.972 (±0.9%) 171.55 (±0.2%)
6132
Quebec, Canada
5797 (±0.1%) 10.01 (±1.6%) 17.632 (±0.6%) 123.88 (±0.1%)
5933
Sweden
5822 (±0.2%) 7.53 (±2.3%) 19.512 (±0.7%) 112.98 (±0.2%)
5780
Bangladesh
6360 (±0.5%) 2.15 (±3.2%) 37.491 (±0.6%) 196.30 (±0.2%)
5281
Saudi Arabia
5673 (±0.6%) 2.52 (±5.4%) 36.321 (±0.7%) 194.72 (±0.2%)
4739
China total, China total
4670 (±0.5%) 5.56 (±0.7%) 15.972 (±2.2%) 51.16 (±1.5%)
4512
Hubei, China
4503 (±0.5%) 6.68 (±0.7%) 15.928 (±2.3%) 51.08 (±1.5%)
4351
Poland
5510 (±11.8%) 8.11 (±4.4%) 64.559 (±6.5%) 231.90 (±6.3%)
3609
Guatemala
3634 (±0.3%) 4.10 (±1.2%) 30.280 (±0.5%) 197.96 (±0.1%)
3255
Morocco
471987351 (±336.5%) 3.18 (±33.6%) 182.123 (±13.2%) 1085.61 (±18.5%)
3132
Ontario, Canada
2879 (±0.3%) 7.72 (±1.9%) 17.468 (±1.1%) 119.09 (±0.2%)
2628
Panama
2987 (±1.1%) 2.52 (±8.4%) 38.281 (±1.2%) 199.56 (±0.4%)
2617
Honduras
2975 (±0.8%) 3.42 (±4.5%) 36.813 (±0.8%) 207.43 (±0.3%)
2372
Israel
151675625 (±235.9%) 5.80 (±6.9%) 199.493 (±10.1%) 1158.96 (±14.3%)
2297
Portugal
1891 (±0.7%) 5.45 (±3.2%) 23.947 (±2.3%) 113.62 (±0.8%)
2220
Dominican Republic
3127 (±2.2%) 3.00 (±6.0%) 49.390 (±1.6%) 208.51 (±1.0%)
2077
Czechia
34070578 (±1339.2%) 12.84 (±4.7%) 218.282 (±63.5%) 1233.58 (±91.0%)
1907
Algeria
2094 (±1.4%) 4.97 (±5.0%) 44.057 (±1.6%) 167.68 (±0.8%)
1882
Ireland
1770 (±0.2%) 6.64 (±1.3%) 13.312 (±1.0%) 109.41 (±0.2%)
1796
Kazakhstan
1808 (±0.6%) 1.77 (±10.2%) 22.658 (±1.3%) 206.34 (±0.2%)
1710
Japan
1578 (±2.0%) 5.83 (±4.2%) 36.692 (±3.2%) 140.50 (±1.6%)
1669
Moldova
2135 (±2.7%) 4.70 (±5.3%) 50.604 (±1.9%) 215.47 (±1.2%)
1511
Afghanistan
1495 (±0.4%) 4.02 (±0.9%) 24.464 (±0.9%) 168.36 (±0.2%)
1498
Kyrgyzstan
1174 (±1.0%) fiterr (±err) 2.352 (±18.4%) 199.34 (±0.1%)
1419
Ethiopia
1618 (±1.0%) 2.51 (±15.0%) 31.886 (±1.1%) 231.74 (±0.2%)
1390
Hungary
857 (±3.7%) 19.36 (±5.9%) 37.227 (±6.5%) 132.40 (±3.0%)
1293
Paraguay
2074 (±1.5%) 1.63 (±36.2%) 34.969 (±0.9%) 269.22 (±0.2%)
1282
Costa Rica
2496 (±2.4%) fiterr (±err) 43.619 (±1.1%) 275.56 (±0.5%)
1157
Armenia
1041 (±0.6%) fiterr (±err) 29.161 (±1.1%) 177.27 (±0.2%)
1147
Oman
1458 (±1.2%) 0.94 (±12.3%) 42.165 (±0.9%) 227.61 (±0.4%)
1129
Nigeria
1148 (±0.2%) 3.06 (±5.6%) 29.044 (±0.3%) 165.11 (±0.1%)
1084
Bulgaria
1908 (±2.7%) 3.16 (±21.5%) 57.633 (±1.3%) 256.41 (±1.0%)
1075
Bosnia and Herzegovina
2773 (±6.6%) 2.94 (±36.1%) 65.401 (±2.5%) 292.27 (±2.2%)
965
Austria
743 (±0.6%) 4.63 (±2.4%) 14.962 (±2.9%) 100.06 (±0.7%)
953
Belarus
1031 (±1.2%) 1.82 (±6.6%) 42.066 (±1.4%) 183.09 (±0.6%)
944
El Salvador
973 (±0.4%) 3.39 (±5.4%) 30.579 (±0.6%) 203.15 (±0.1%)
939
Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania
109529619 (±844.6%) 7.01 (±3.5%) 215.891 (±34.9%) 1252.78 (±50.2%)
897
North Macedonia
956 (±1.3%) 2.89 (±25.5%) 41.777 (±1.3%) 193.51 (±0.6%)
896
Kenya
1028 (±1.6%) fiterr (±err) 40.105 (±1.5%) 218.33 (±0.5%)
842
Nepal
2394 (±7.2%) 2.84 (±5.8%) 48.983 (±2.5%) 302.19 (±1.4%)
837
Sudan
835 (±0.2%) 7.19 (±1.8%) 22.462 (±0.7%) 155.84 (±0.1%)
819
Tunisia
104767097 (±673.6%) fiterr (±err) 120.531 (±26.4%) 769.07 (±33.2%)
790
Libya
1687 (±2.6%) 0.60 (±38.3%) 45.176 (±1.1%) 282.36 (±0.5%)
789
Serbia
911 (±2.2%) 4.33 (±3.6%) 41.092 (±2.6%) 172.95 (±1.2%)
770
Venezuela
1110 (±1.0%) 1.54 (±9.9%) 40.585 (±0.7%) 246.76 (±0.2%)
744
Kuwait
663 (±1.3%) 1.07 (±8.2%) 33.417 (±2.1%) 165.29 (±0.7%)
700
Denmark
626 (±0.3%) 4.51 (±2.4%) 15.136 (±1.4%) 101.29 (±0.3%)
664
Azerbaijan
628 (±0.5%) 1.34 (±19.0%) 27.785 (±0.9%) 182.40 (±0.2%)
657
Kosovo
686 (±0.8%) 2.85 (±57.4%) 24.964 (±1.4%) 213.30 (±0.2%)
599
Yemen
593 (±0.2%) 29.85 (±0.8%) 23.025 (±0.7%) 170.75 (±0.1%)
564
Greece
379016 (±434.4%) 10.72 (±4.7%) 211.009 (±33.8%) 1069.23 (±48.8%)
562
Lebanon
101439731 (±288.0%) 4.19 (±39.0%) 173.633 (±11.1%) 1044.95 (±15.4%)
544
Uzbekistan
634 (±0.7%) 2.54 (±18.1%) 33.315 (±0.7%) 229.41 (±0.2%)
540
Jordan
7748839 (±245.5%) 12.89 (±55.5%) 73.442 (±12.1%) 523.93 (±11.9%)
475
United Arab Emirates
403 (±0.8%) 1.15 (±7.6%) 24.794 (±2.3%) 130.04 (±0.7%)
473
Albania
672 (±2.7%) 2.38 (±33.2%) 45.204 (±1.8%) 236.48 (±0.9%)
457
Korea - South
368 (±1.6%) 3.44 (±2.1%) 31.125 (±4.2%) 90.71 (±2.7%)
443
West Bank and Gaza
1155 (±5.5%) fiterr (±err) 52.267 (±2.1%) 293.98 (±1.3%)
429
Croatia
122238 (±226.6%) 9.91 (±5.2%) 175.394 (±20.0%) 878.06 (±28.2%)
425
Cameroon
424 (±0.3%) 2.02 (±4.9%) 24.998 (±0.8%) 143.62 (±0.2%)
355
Finland
335 (±0.2%) 4.86 (±2.3%) 13.246 (±1.0%) 110.86 (±0.2%)
348
Zambia
345 (±0.6%) 1.29 (±78.7%) 21.866 (±1.3%) 206.02 (±0.1%)
321
Senegal
338 (±0.4%) 3.24 (±4.8%) 30.884 (±0.6%) 185.33 (±0.1%)
316
Ghana
342 (±0.8%) 1.27 (±9.7%) 33.154 (±1.1%) 189.47 (±0.3%)
312
Bahrain
344 (±2.1%) 0.71 (±12.5%) 41.125 (±2.0%) 208.23 (±0.8%)
305
Congo (Kinshasa)
295 (±0.6%) 2.80 (±3.6%) 32.233 (±1.0%) 163.43 (±0.3%)
300
Alberta, Canada
304 (±2.3%) 3.01 (±4.1%) 42.130 (±3.2%) 148.38 (±1.6%)
279
Norway
258 (±0.3%) 3.06 (±2.9%) 13.377 (±1.8%) 99.17 (±0.4%)
267
Angola
578 (±4.6%) 4.89 (±5.5%) 51.797 (±1.9%) 282.78 (±1.2%)
263
Montenegro
1352 (±11.3%) fiterr (±err) 68.732 (±2.8%) 351.15 (±2.5%)
256
British Columbia, Canada
218 (±0.9%) 7.45 (±3.9%) 25.284 (±2.5%) 113.76 (±0.9%)
244
Madagascar
244 (±0.5%) 1.84 (±11.1%) 24.226 (±1.1%) 207.97 (±0.1%)
235
Slovenia
143 (±1.6%) 10.97 (±3.1%) 26.482 (±4.9%) 107.10 (±2.0%)
231
Haiti
238 (±0.3%) 3.15 (±2.8%) 29.634 (±0.5%) 174.25 (±0.1%)
229
Qatar
219 (±0.3%) fiterr (±err) 26.124 (±0.8%) 168.54 (±0.2%)
221
Malaysia
131 (±1.1%) 2.83 (±6.4%) 16.375 (±5.1%) 94.67 (±1.4%)
193
Georgia
7685764 (±905.4%) 10.14 (±7.3%) 96.890 (±40.0%) 640.18 (±45.8%)
186
Jamaica
29466789 (±465.2%) 5.58 (±68.4%) 142.210 (±18.1%) 880.04 (±24.0%)
183
Malawi
182 (±0.3%) 2.76 (±9.0%) 17.449 (±1.0%) 201.41 (±0.1%)
163
Mauritania
160 (±0.2%) 2.38 (±3.7%) 15.533 (±0.7%) 160.33 (±0.1%)
159
Slovakia
105426 (±1009.4%) 6.57 (±4.1%) 207.431 (±71.2%) 1079.04 (±102.1%)
155
Nicaragua
155 (±0.4%) 3.93 (±6.7%) 28.344 (±0.9%) 168.56 (±0.2%)
141
Luxembourg
119 (±0.5%) 2.91 (±3.1%) 14.973 (±2.3%) 98.48 (±0.5%)
133
Namibia
137 (±0.6%) 2.34 (±9.7%) 21.350 (±1.1%) 235.01 (±0.1%)
132
Mali
129 (±0.2%) 5.43 (±2.9%) 20.760 (±0.7%) 134.48 (±0.2%)
130
Bahamas
6671674 (±486.8%) 4.10 (±6.0%) 174.068 (±21.4%) 1022.14 (±29.6%)
129
Lithuania
91 (±1.0%) 6.10 (±2.9%) 24.286 (±3.2%) 114.06 (±1.1%)
128
Cuba
100 (±1.1%) 4.58 (±2.8%) 18.383 (±4.5%) 111.31 (±1.2%)
121
Cote d’Ivoire
127 (±0.5%) 1.50 (±9.1%) 30.162 (±1.0%) 161.98 (±0.3%)
117
Guyana
15761921 (±302.9%) 5.44 (±36.4%) 189.614 (±12.0%) 1123.06 (±16.9%)
116
Eswatini
120 (±0.6%) 1.03 (±32.3%) 25.544 (±1.1%) 212.65 (±0.1%)
115
Guadeloupe, France
30111514 (±1080.8%) fiterr (±err) 160.648 (±39.5%) 985.66 (±54.1%)
114
Congo (Brazzaville)
106 (±2.1%) 2.24 (±10.0%) 37.232 (±2.7%) 183.13 (±0.9%)
109
Suriname
132 (±2.1%) 2.78 (±7.0%) 31.832 (±2.4%) 227.24 (±0.5%)
102
Somalia
96 (±0.3%) 3.70 (±3.9%) 17.072 (±1.1%) 125.86 (±0.2%)
99
Uganda
121 (±1.2%) 4.25 (±10.1%) 27.775 (±1.2%) 251.86 (±0.2%)
96
Chad
79 (±0.6%) 9.80 (±1.8%) 12.856 (±3.6%) 130.38 (±0.4%)
94
Cabo Verde
433 (±15.8%) 2.97 (±9.4%) 74.312 (±4.1%) 352.26 (±4.0%)
85
Mozambique
1368973 (±335.2%) 1.99 (±7.0%) 156.938 (±16.9%) 912.34 (±22.7%)
82
Liberia
90 (±1.5%) 5.45 (±4.3%) 32.085 (±2.7%) 160.70 (±0.8%)
81
Tajikistan
77 (±1.8%) 1.60 (±9.5%) 33.434 (±4.8%) 133.09 (±1.5%)
74
Sierra Leone
71 (±0.4%) 4.04 (±2.6%) 20.128 (±1.6%) 136.93 (±0.3%)
73
Estonia
67 (±0.3%) 3.60 (±4.0%) 12.527 (±1.7%) 101.85 (±0.3%)
71
Guinea
78 (±0.9%) 1.29 (±8.5%) 40.216 (±1.2%) 174.85 (±0.5%)
69
Andorra
53 (±0.4%) 7.16 (±2.5%) 12.963 (±2.2%) 97.77 (±0.4%)
65
Burkina Faso
55 (±0.4%) 6.22 (±3.0%) 14.065 (±2.2%) 97.69 (±0.5%)
62
Central African Republic
61 (±0.4%) 1.15 (±17.1%) 12.794 (±1.8%) 171.12 (±0.1%)
61
Djibouti
60 (±0.2%) 1.69 (±6.6%) 16.268 (±0.9%) 152.14 (±0.1%)
59
Thailand
58 (±0.1%) 1.76 (±4.6%) 9.968 (±0.8%) 95.49 (±0.1%)
56
South Sudan
50 (±0.6%) 2.67 (±6.5%) 19.359 (±2.2%) 159.35 (±0.3%)
54
Gabon
54 (±0.4%) 0.89 (±15.5%) 22.334 (±1.1%) 153.39 (±0.2%)
53
New South Wales, Australia
51 (±0.3%) 1.44 (±4.8%) 15.479 (±1.3%) 99.33 (±0.3%)
50
Manitoba, Canada
6036198 (±988.5%) 11.37 (±4.1%) 212.770 (±38.6%) 1250.05 (±55.4%)
48
Belize
255 (±26.0%) 2.45 (±16.8%) 56.172 (±6.6%) 336.23 (±4.5%)
44
Mayotte, France
41 (±0.4%) 1.75 (±8.9%) 22.719 (±1.1%) 138.07 (±0.3%)
43
Lesotho
40 (±1.4%) 3.61 (±5.7%) 21.741 (±3.4%) 213.02 (±0.3%)
42
San Marino
42 (±0.1%) 6.23 (±1.7%) 10.582 (±0.9%) 81.82 (±0.2%)
41
Benin
41 (±0.4%) 2.22 (±21.4%) 19.904 (±1.2%) 177.41 (±0.2%)
37
Maldives
46 (±2.2%) 1.17 (±6.7%) 42.225 (±2.0%) 207.88 (±0.8%)
35
Vietnam
35 (±0.4%) 7.41 (±3.4%) 13.426 (±1.8%) 221.45 (±0.1%)
34
Rwanda
51 (±4.7%) 2.40 (±11.5%) 38.172 (±3.3%) 250.07 (±1.0%)
28
Singapore
27 (±0.2%) fiterr (±err) 17.571 (±0.8%) 107.59 (±0.2%)
25
Saskatchewan, Canada
28 (±1.3%) 3.22 (±6.2%) 40.053 (±1.9%) 156.67 (±0.8%)
24
Martinique, France
17 (±1.3%) 8.30 (±3.9%) 15.862 (±6.2%) 100.77 (±1.5%)
22
Henan, China
22 (±0.1%) 1.82 (±2.5%) 5.514 (±1.3%) 42.12 (±0.2%)
20
Reunion, France
32 (±11.1%) 3.01 (±4.2%) 45.458 (±6.2%) 258.59 (±2.9%)

For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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