Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.
Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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Actualisation date: Sun Oct 25 05:16:32 UTC 2020
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| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_dead | death rate (err) | death_rate | deaths_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 1149202 World total, World total | 1252892 (±1.4%) |  | 4.96 (±5.6%) |  |  | 44.495 (±1.5%) | 174.49 (±0.9%) |
| 1144463 World without China, World without China | 1252282 (±1.5%) |  | 4.93 (±5.6%) |  |  | 44.615 (±1.5%) | 175.29 (±0.9%) |
| 337789 North America, North America | 346623 (±1.2%) |  | 6.08 (±5.0%) |  |  | 39.890 (±1.6%) | 161.15 (±0.8%) |
| 273117 South America, South America | 314502 (±0.5%) |  | 4.64 (±3.1%) |  |  | 40.385 (±0.5%) | 201.94 (±0.2%) |
| 224889 USA, USA | 213726 (±1.3%) |  | 5.77 (±4.9%) |  |  | 35.458 (±2.1%) | 141.51 (±0.9%) |
| 165791 Europe, Europe | 142188 (±0.4%) |  | 10.65 (±2.5%) |  |  | 15.663 (±1.7%) | 99.34 (±0.4%) |
| 156903 Brazil | 167239 (±0.5%) |  | 4.27 (±2.9%) |  |  | 36.954 (±0.6%) | 185.43 (±0.2%) |
| 132877 South Asia, South Asia | 199323 (±0.8%) |  | 2.70 (±4.4%) |  |  | 46.950 (±0.5%) | 238.87 (±0.3%) |
| 117956 India | 187613 (±0.7%) |  | 2.01 (±4.8%) |  |  | 47.004 (±0.4%) | 246.75 (±0.2%) |
| 88743 Mexico | 95466 (±0.5%) |  | 11.78 (±1.3%) |  |  | 37.231 (±0.6%) | 195.83 (±0.2%) |
| 65143 Middle East, Middle East | 88866 (±2.0%) |  | 4.95 (±4.7%) |  |  | 53.951 (±1.3%) | 214.82 (±1.0%) |
| 44745 United Kingdom | 41469 (±0.2%) |  | 13.41 (±1.8%) |  |  | 15.851 (±0.9%) | 107.44 (±0.2%) |
| 40960 Africa, Africa | 46319 (±0.6%) |  | 2.93 (±2.3%) |  |  | 38.566 (±0.6%) | 204.55 (±0.2%) |
| 37210 Italy | 35273 (±0.2%) |  | 14.53 (±1.2%) |  |  | 15.287 (±0.7%) | 93.43 (±0.2%) |
| 34752 Spain | 29399 (±0.4%) |  | 10.97 (±2.8%) |  |  | 13.433 (±2.3%) | 94.93 (±0.5%) |
| 34236 France | 30493 (±0.3%) |  | 13.66 (±2.7%) |  |  | 13.205 (±1.4%) | 99.92 (±0.3%) |
| 34033 Peru | 37920 (±1.0%) |  | 6.00 (±3.0%) |  |  | 34.472 (±1.3%) | 195.05 (±0.4%) |
| 33063 East Europe, East Europe | 35485 (±2.0%) |  | 3.64 (±3.7%) |  |  | 43.945 (±1.8%) | 199.04 (±0.9%) |
| 32320 Iran | 44454 (±2.8%) |  | 8.33 (±4.9%) |  |  | 56.326 (±1.8%) | 213.04 (±1.5%) |
| 30000 Colombia | 33993 (±0.5%) |  | 3.09 (±1.9%) |  |  | 34.209 (±0.6%) | 220.48 (±0.1%) |
| 28613 Argentina | 343889 (±16.2%) |  | 3.87 (±3.6%) |  |  | 73.663 (±3.0%) | 397.30 (±2.8%) |
| 25647 Russia | 25248 (±1.3%) |  | 3.41 (±3.8%) |  |  | 38.890 (±1.5%) | 185.65 (±0.6%) |
| 20450 South-East Asia, South-East Asia | 50612 (±3.1%) |  | 4.50 (±7.2%) |  |  | 65.209 (±1.2%) | 287.15 (±1.1%) |
| 18944 South Africa | 19596 (±0.6%) |  | 2.54 (±1.9%) |  |  | 30.074 (±0.9%) | 207.97 (±0.2%) |
| 13892 Chile | 13267 (±0.5%) |  | 3.20 (±2.9%) |  |  | 27.588 (±1.0%) | 179.08 (±0.2%) |
| 13205 Indonesia | 25226 (±1.8%) |  | 4.75 (±3.2%) |  |  | 58.420 (±0.8%) | 260.72 (±0.6%) |
| 12542 Ecuador | 24640 (±11.0%) |  | 8.12 (±6.6%) |  |  | 62.921 (±5.4%) | 252.03 (±4.8%) |
| 10737 Belgium | 9883 (±0.2%) |  | 14.10 (±2.2%) |  |  | 12.728 (±0.9%) | 103.60 (±0.2%) |
| 10568 Iraq | 11414 (±0.9%) |  | 4.16 (±4.1%) |  |  | 34.840 (±1.0%) | 209.62 (±0.3%) |
| 10035 Germany | 9241 (±0.2%) |  | 4.93 (±2.1%) |  |  | 14.605 (±1.1%) | 104.81 (±0.2%) |
| 9969 Canada, Canada | 9236 (±0.2%) |  | 8.30 (±1.9%) |  |  | 18.120 (±0.8%) | 122.04 (±0.2%) |
| 9727 Turkey | 8939 (±3.1%) |  | 4.68 (±2.4%) |  |  | 42.630 (±4.5%) | 142.16 (±2.4%) |
| 8627 Bolivia | 11118 (±2.1%) |  | 6.40 (±0.8%) |  |  | 37.722 (±1.9%) | 226.28 (±0.6%) |
| 7019 Netherlands | 6245 (±0.2%) |  | 11.42 (±2.6%) |  |  | 14.040 (±1.1%) | 100.40 (±0.2%) |
| 6934 Philippines | 37438 (±10.9%) |  | 1.14 (±20.1%) |  |  | 80.133 (±2.7%) | 363.26 (±2.9%) |
| 6913 East Asia, East Asia | 6313 (±0.6%) |  | 5.67 (±1.8%) |  |  | 21.878 (±2.0%) | 63.37 (±1.5%) |
| 6736 Pakistan | 6573 (±0.3%) |  | 2.45 (±3.1%) |  |  | 22.773 (±0.8%) | 159.90 (±0.2%) |
| 6463 Ukraine | 166156 (±33.1%) |  | 4.59 (±7.5%) |  |  | 108.730 (±4.8%) | 523.50 (±6.0%) |
| 6318 Romania | 17613 (±8.0%) |  | 5.28 (±17.2%) |  |  | 74.609 (±2.8%) | 305.06 (±2.9%) |
| 6187 Egypt | 6093 (±0.4%) |  | 5.78 (±1.3%) |  |  | 26.972 (±0.9%) | 171.55 (±0.2%) |
| 6132 Quebec, Canada | 5797 (±0.1%) |  | 10.01 (±1.6%) |  |  | 17.632 (±0.6%) | 123.88 (±0.1%) |
| 5933 Sweden | 5822 (±0.2%) |  | 7.53 (±2.3%) |  |  | 19.512 (±0.7%) | 112.98 (±0.2%) |
| 5780 Bangladesh | 6360 (±0.5%) |  | 2.15 (±3.2%) |  |  | 37.491 (±0.6%) | 196.30 (±0.2%) |
| 5281 Saudi Arabia | 5673 (±0.6%) |  | 2.52 (±5.4%) |  |  | 36.321 (±0.7%) | 194.72 (±0.2%) |
| 4739 China total, China total | 4670 (±0.5%) |  | 5.56 (±0.7%) |  |  | 15.972 (±2.2%) | 51.16 (±1.5%) |
| 4512 Hubei, China | 4503 (±0.5%) |  | 6.68 (±0.7%) |  |  | 15.928 (±2.3%) | 51.08 (±1.5%) |
| 4351 Poland | 5510 (±11.8%) |  | 8.11 (±4.4%) |  |  | 64.559 (±6.5%) | 231.90 (±6.3%) |
| 3609 Guatemala | 3634 (±0.3%) |  | 4.10 (±1.2%) |  |  | 30.280 (±0.5%) | 197.96 (±0.1%) |
| 3255 Morocco | 471987351 (±336.5%) |  | 3.18 (±33.6%) |  |  | 182.123 (±13.2%) | 1085.61 (±18.5%) |
| 3132 Ontario, Canada | 2879 (±0.3%) |  | 7.72 (±1.9%) |  |  | 17.468 (±1.1%) | 119.09 (±0.2%) |
| 2628 Panama | 2987 (±1.1%) |  | 2.52 (±8.4%) |  |  | 38.281 (±1.2%) | 199.56 (±0.4%) |
| 2617 Honduras | 2975 (±0.8%) |  | 3.42 (±4.5%) |  |  | 36.813 (±0.8%) | 207.43 (±0.3%) |
| 2372 Israel | 151675625 (±235.9%) |  | 5.80 (±6.9%) |  |  | 199.493 (±10.1%) | 1158.96 (±14.3%) |
| 2297 Portugal | 1891 (±0.7%) |  | 5.45 (±3.2%) |  |  | 23.947 (±2.3%) | 113.62 (±0.8%) |
| 2220 Dominican Republic | 3127 (±2.2%) |  | 3.00 (±6.0%) |  |  | 49.390 (±1.6%) | 208.51 (±1.0%) |
| 2077 Czechia | 34070578 (±1339.2%) |  | 12.84 (±4.7%) |  |  | 218.282 (±63.5%) | 1233.58 (±91.0%) |
| 1907 Algeria | 2094 (±1.4%) |  | 4.97 (±5.0%) |  |  | 44.057 (±1.6%) | 167.68 (±0.8%) |
| 1882 Ireland | 1770 (±0.2%) |  | 6.64 (±1.3%) |  |  | 13.312 (±1.0%) | 109.41 (±0.2%) |
| 1796 Kazakhstan | 1808 (±0.6%) |  | 1.77 (±10.2%) |  |  | 22.658 (±1.3%) | 206.34 (±0.2%) |
| 1710 Japan | 1578 (±2.0%) |  | 5.83 (±4.2%) |  |  | 36.692 (±3.2%) | 140.50 (±1.6%) |
| 1669 Moldova | 2135 (±2.7%) |  | 4.70 (±5.3%) |  |  | 50.604 (±1.9%) | 215.47 (±1.2%) |
| 1511 Afghanistan | 1495 (±0.4%) |  | 4.02 (±0.9%) |  |  | 24.464 (±0.9%) | 168.36 (±0.2%) |
| 1498 Kyrgyzstan | 1174 (±1.0%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 2.352 (±18.4%) | 199.34 (±0.1%) |
| 1419 Ethiopia | 1618 (±1.0%) |  | 2.51 (±15.0%) |  |  | 31.886 (±1.1%) | 231.74 (±0.2%) |
| 1390 Hungary | 857 (±3.7%) |  | 19.36 (±5.9%) |  |  | 37.227 (±6.5%) | 132.40 (±3.0%) |
| 1293 Paraguay | 2074 (±1.5%) |  | 1.63 (±36.2%) |  |  | 34.969 (±0.9%) | 269.22 (±0.2%) |
| 1282 Costa Rica | 2496 (±2.4%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 43.619 (±1.1%) | 275.56 (±0.5%) |
| 1157 Armenia | 1041 (±0.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 29.161 (±1.1%) | 177.27 (±0.2%) |
| 1147 Oman | 1458 (±1.2%) |  | 0.94 (±12.3%) |  |  | 42.165 (±0.9%) | 227.61 (±0.4%) |
| 1129 Nigeria | 1148 (±0.2%) |  | 3.06 (±5.6%) |  |  | 29.044 (±0.3%) | 165.11 (±0.1%) |
| 1084 Bulgaria | 1908 (±2.7%) |  | 3.16 (±21.5%) |  |  | 57.633 (±1.3%) | 256.41 (±1.0%) |
| 1075 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2773 (±6.6%) |  | 2.94 (±36.1%) |  |  | 65.401 (±2.5%) | 292.27 (±2.2%) |
| 965 Austria | 743 (±0.6%) |  | 4.63 (±2.4%) |  |  | 14.962 (±2.9%) | 100.06 (±0.7%) |
| 953 Belarus | 1031 (±1.2%) |  | 1.82 (±6.6%) |  |  | 42.066 (±1.4%) | 183.09 (±0.6%) |
| 944 El Salvador | 973 (±0.4%) |  | 3.39 (±5.4%) |  |  | 30.579 (±0.6%) | 203.15 (±0.1%) |
| 939 Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania | 109529619 (±844.6%) |  | 7.01 (±3.5%) |  |  | 215.891 (±34.9%) | 1252.78 (±50.2%) |
| 897 North Macedonia | 956 (±1.3%) |  | 2.89 (±25.5%) |  |  | 41.777 (±1.3%) | 193.51 (±0.6%) |
| 896 Kenya | 1028 (±1.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 40.105 (±1.5%) | 218.33 (±0.5%) |
| 842 Nepal | 2394 (±7.2%) |  | 2.84 (±5.8%) |  |  | 48.983 (±2.5%) | 302.19 (±1.4%) |
| 837 Sudan | 835 (±0.2%) |  | 7.19 (±1.8%) |  |  | 22.462 (±0.7%) | 155.84 (±0.1%) |
| 819 Tunisia | 104767097 (±673.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 120.531 (±26.4%) | 769.07 (±33.2%) |
| 790 Libya | 1687 (±2.6%) |  | 0.60 (±38.3%) |  |  | 45.176 (±1.1%) | 282.36 (±0.5%) |
| 789 Serbia | 911 (±2.2%) |  | 4.33 (±3.6%) |  |  | 41.092 (±2.6%) | 172.95 (±1.2%) |
| 770 Venezuela | 1110 (±1.0%) |  | 1.54 (±9.9%) |  |  | 40.585 (±0.7%) | 246.76 (±0.2%) |
| 744 Kuwait | 663 (±1.3%) |  | 1.07 (±8.2%) |  |  | 33.417 (±2.1%) | 165.29 (±0.7%) |
| 700 Denmark | 626 (±0.3%) |  | 4.51 (±2.4%) |  |  | 15.136 (±1.4%) | 101.29 (±0.3%) |
| 664 Azerbaijan | 628 (±0.5%) |  | 1.34 (±19.0%) |  |  | 27.785 (±0.9%) | 182.40 (±0.2%) |
| 657 Kosovo | 686 (±0.8%) |  | 2.85 (±57.4%) |  |  | 24.964 (±1.4%) | 213.30 (±0.2%) |
| 599 Yemen | 593 (±0.2%) |  | 29.85 (±0.8%) |  |  | 23.025 (±0.7%) | 170.75 (±0.1%) |
| 564 Greece | 379016 (±434.4%) |  | 10.72 (±4.7%) |  |  | 211.009 (±33.8%) | 1069.23 (±48.8%) |
| 562 Lebanon | 101439731 (±288.0%) |  | 4.19 (±39.0%) |  |  | 173.633 (±11.1%) | 1044.95 (±15.4%) |
| 544 Uzbekistan | 634 (±0.7%) |  | 2.54 (±18.1%) |  |  | 33.315 (±0.7%) | 229.41 (±0.2%) |
| 540 Jordan | 7748839 (±245.5%) |  | 12.89 (±55.5%) |  |  | 73.442 (±12.1%) | 523.93 (±11.9%) |
| 475 United Arab Emirates | 403 (±0.8%) |  | 1.15 (±7.6%) |  |  | 24.794 (±2.3%) | 130.04 (±0.7%) |
| 473 Albania | 672 (±2.7%) |  | 2.38 (±33.2%) |  |  | 45.204 (±1.8%) | 236.48 (±0.9%) |
| 457 Korea - South | 368 (±1.6%) |  | 3.44 (±2.1%) |  |  | 31.125 (±4.2%) | 90.71 (±2.7%) |
| 443 West Bank and Gaza | 1155 (±5.5%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 52.267 (±2.1%) | 293.98 (±1.3%) |
| 429 Croatia | 122238 (±226.6%) |  | 9.91 (±5.2%) |  |  | 175.394 (±20.0%) | 878.06 (±28.2%) |
| 425 Cameroon | 424 (±0.3%) |  | 2.02 (±4.9%) |  |  | 24.998 (±0.8%) | 143.62 (±0.2%) |
| 355 Finland | 335 (±0.2%) |  | 4.86 (±2.3%) |  |  | 13.246 (±1.0%) | 110.86 (±0.2%) |
| 348 Zambia | 345 (±0.6%) |  | 1.29 (±78.7%) |  |  | 21.866 (±1.3%) | 206.02 (±0.1%) |
| 321 Senegal | 338 (±0.4%) |  | 3.24 (±4.8%) |  |  | 30.884 (±0.6%) | 185.33 (±0.1%) |
| 316 Ghana | 342 (±0.8%) |  | 1.27 (±9.7%) |  |  | 33.154 (±1.1%) | 189.47 (±0.3%) |
| 312 Bahrain | 344 (±2.1%) |  | 0.71 (±12.5%) |  |  | 41.125 (±2.0%) | 208.23 (±0.8%) |
| 305 Congo (Kinshasa) | 295 (±0.6%) |  | 2.80 (±3.6%) |  |  | 32.233 (±1.0%) | 163.43 (±0.3%) |
| 300 Alberta, Canada | 304 (±2.3%) |  | 3.01 (±4.1%) |  |  | 42.130 (±3.2%) | 148.38 (±1.6%) |
| 279 Norway | 258 (±0.3%) |  | 3.06 (±2.9%) |  |  | 13.377 (±1.8%) | 99.17 (±0.4%) |
| 267 Angola | 578 (±4.6%) |  | 4.89 (±5.5%) |  |  | 51.797 (±1.9%) | 282.78 (±1.2%) |
| 263 Montenegro | 1352 (±11.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 68.732 (±2.8%) | 351.15 (±2.5%) |
| 256 British Columbia, Canada | 218 (±0.9%) |  | 7.45 (±3.9%) |  |  | 25.284 (±2.5%) | 113.76 (±0.9%) |
| 244 Madagascar | 244 (±0.5%) |  | 1.84 (±11.1%) |  |  | 24.226 (±1.1%) | 207.97 (±0.1%) |
| 235 Slovenia | 143 (±1.6%) |  | 10.97 (±3.1%) |  |  | 26.482 (±4.9%) | 107.10 (±2.0%) |
| 231 Haiti | 238 (±0.3%) |  | 3.15 (±2.8%) |  |  | 29.634 (±0.5%) | 174.25 (±0.1%) |
| 229 Qatar | 219 (±0.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 26.124 (±0.8%) | 168.54 (±0.2%) |
| 221 Malaysia | 131 (±1.1%) |  | 2.83 (±6.4%) |  |  | 16.375 (±5.1%) | 94.67 (±1.4%) |
| 193 Georgia | 7685764 (±905.4%) |  | 10.14 (±7.3%) |  |  | 96.890 (±40.0%) | 640.18 (±45.8%) |
| 186 Jamaica | 29466789 (±465.2%) |  | 5.58 (±68.4%) |  |  | 142.210 (±18.1%) | 880.04 (±24.0%) |
| 183 Malawi | 182 (±0.3%) |  | 2.76 (±9.0%) |  |  | 17.449 (±1.0%) | 201.41 (±0.1%) |
| 163 Mauritania | 160 (±0.2%) |  | 2.38 (±3.7%) |  |  | 15.533 (±0.7%) | 160.33 (±0.1%) |
| 159 Slovakia | 105426 (±1009.4%) |  | 6.57 (±4.1%) |  |  | 207.431 (±71.2%) | 1079.04 (±102.1%) |
| 155 Nicaragua | 155 (±0.4%) |  | 3.93 (±6.7%) |  |  | 28.344 (±0.9%) | 168.56 (±0.2%) |
| 141 Luxembourg | 119 (±0.5%) |  | 2.91 (±3.1%) |  |  | 14.973 (±2.3%) | 98.48 (±0.5%) |
| 133 Namibia | 137 (±0.6%) |  | 2.34 (±9.7%) |  |  | 21.350 (±1.1%) | 235.01 (±0.1%) |
| 132 Mali | 129 (±0.2%) |  | 5.43 (±2.9%) |  |  | 20.760 (±0.7%) | 134.48 (±0.2%) |
| 130 Bahamas | 6671674 (±486.8%) |  | 4.10 (±6.0%) |  |  | 174.068 (±21.4%) | 1022.14 (±29.6%) |
| 129 Lithuania | 91 (±1.0%) |  | 6.10 (±2.9%) |  |  | 24.286 (±3.2%) | 114.06 (±1.1%) |
| 128 Cuba | 100 (±1.1%) |  | 4.58 (±2.8%) |  |  | 18.383 (±4.5%) | 111.31 (±1.2%) |
| 121 Cote d’Ivoire | 127 (±0.5%) |  | 1.50 (±9.1%) |  |  | 30.162 (±1.0%) | 161.98 (±0.3%) |
| 117 Guyana | 15761921 (±302.9%) |  | 5.44 (±36.4%) |  |  | 189.614 (±12.0%) | 1123.06 (±16.9%) |
| 116 Eswatini | 120 (±0.6%) |  | 1.03 (±32.3%) |  |  | 25.544 (±1.1%) | 212.65 (±0.1%) |
| 115 Guadeloupe, France | 30111514 (±1080.8%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 160.648 (±39.5%) | 985.66 (±54.1%) |
| 114 Congo (Brazzaville) | 106 (±2.1%) |  | 2.24 (±10.0%) |  |  | 37.232 (±2.7%) | 183.13 (±0.9%) |
| 109 Suriname | 132 (±2.1%) |  | 2.78 (±7.0%) |  |  | 31.832 (±2.4%) | 227.24 (±0.5%) |
| 102 Somalia | 96 (±0.3%) |  | 3.70 (±3.9%) |  |  | 17.072 (±1.1%) | 125.86 (±0.2%) |
| 99 Uganda | 121 (±1.2%) |  | 4.25 (±10.1%) |  |  | 27.775 (±1.2%) | 251.86 (±0.2%) |
| 96 Chad | 79 (±0.6%) |  | 9.80 (±1.8%) |  |  | 12.856 (±3.6%) | 130.38 (±0.4%) |
| 94 Cabo Verde | 433 (±15.8%) |  | 2.97 (±9.4%) |  |  | 74.312 (±4.1%) | 352.26 (±4.0%) |
| 85 Mozambique | 1368973 (±335.2%) |  | 1.99 (±7.0%) |  |  | 156.938 (±16.9%) | 912.34 (±22.7%) |
| 82 Liberia | 90 (±1.5%) |  | 5.45 (±4.3%) |  |  | 32.085 (±2.7%) | 160.70 (±0.8%) |
| 81 Tajikistan | 77 (±1.8%) |  | 1.60 (±9.5%) |  |  | 33.434 (±4.8%) | 133.09 (±1.5%) |
| 74 Sierra Leone | 71 (±0.4%) |  | 4.04 (±2.6%) |  |  | 20.128 (±1.6%) | 136.93 (±0.3%) |
| 73 Estonia | 67 (±0.3%) |  | 3.60 (±4.0%) |  |  | 12.527 (±1.7%) | 101.85 (±0.3%) |
| 71 Guinea | 78 (±0.9%) |  | 1.29 (±8.5%) |  |  | 40.216 (±1.2%) | 174.85 (±0.5%) |
| 69 Andorra | 53 (±0.4%) |  | 7.16 (±2.5%) |  |  | 12.963 (±2.2%) | 97.77 (±0.4%) |
| 65 Burkina Faso | 55 (±0.4%) |  | 6.22 (±3.0%) |  |  | 14.065 (±2.2%) | 97.69 (±0.5%) |
| 62 Central African Republic | 61 (±0.4%) |  | 1.15 (±17.1%) |  |  | 12.794 (±1.8%) | 171.12 (±0.1%) |
| 61 Djibouti | 60 (±0.2%) |  | 1.69 (±6.6%) |  |  | 16.268 (±0.9%) | 152.14 (±0.1%) |
| 59 Thailand | 58 (±0.1%) |  | 1.76 (±4.6%) |  |  | 9.968 (±0.8%) | 95.49 (±0.1%) |
| 56 South Sudan | 50 (±0.6%) |  | 2.67 (±6.5%) |  |  | 19.359 (±2.2%) | 159.35 (±0.3%) |
| 54 Gabon | 54 (±0.4%) |  | 0.89 (±15.5%) |  |  | 22.334 (±1.1%) | 153.39 (±0.2%) |
| 53 New South Wales, Australia | 51 (±0.3%) |  | 1.44 (±4.8%) |  |  | 15.479 (±1.3%) | 99.33 (±0.3%) |
| 50 Manitoba, Canada | 6036198 (±988.5%) |  | 11.37 (±4.1%) |  |  | 212.770 (±38.6%) | 1250.05 (±55.4%) |
| 48 Belize | 255 (±26.0%) |  | 2.45 (±16.8%) |  |  | 56.172 (±6.6%) | 336.23 (±4.5%) |
| 44 Mayotte, France | 41 (±0.4%) |  | 1.75 (±8.9%) |  |  | 22.719 (±1.1%) | 138.07 (±0.3%) |
| 43 Lesotho | 40 (±1.4%) |  | 3.61 (±5.7%) |  |  | 21.741 (±3.4%) | 213.02 (±0.3%) |
| 42 San Marino | 42 (±0.1%) |  | 6.23 (±1.7%) |  |  | 10.582 (±0.9%) | 81.82 (±0.2%) |
| 41 Benin | 41 (±0.4%) |  | 2.22 (±21.4%) |  |  | 19.904 (±1.2%) | 177.41 (±0.2%) |
| 37 Maldives | 46 (±2.2%) |  | 1.17 (±6.7%) |  |  | 42.225 (±2.0%) | 207.88 (±0.8%) |
| 35 Vietnam | 35 (±0.4%) |  | 7.41 (±3.4%) |  |  | 13.426 (±1.8%) | 221.45 (±0.1%) |
| 34 Rwanda | 51 (±4.7%) |  | 2.40 (±11.5%) |  |  | 38.172 (±3.3%) | 250.07 (±1.0%) |
| 28 Singapore | 27 (±0.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 17.571 (±0.8%) | 107.59 (±0.2%) |
| 25 Saskatchewan, Canada | 28 (±1.3%) |  | 3.22 (±6.2%) |  |  | 40.053 (±1.9%) | 156.67 (±0.8%) |
| 24 Martinique, France | 17 (±1.3%) |  | 8.30 (±3.9%) |  |  | 15.862 (±6.2%) | 100.77 (±1.5%) |
| 22 Henan, China | 22 (±0.1%) |  | 1.82 (±2.5%) |  |  | 5.514 (±1.3%) | 42.12 (±0.2%) |
| 20 Reunion, France | 32 (±11.1%) |  | 3.01 (±4.2%) |  |  | 45.458 (±6.2%) | 258.59 (±2.9%) |
For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.