Labor am Elm

Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

8 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Wed Jan 20 05:16:30 UTC 2021

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_dead death rate (err) death_rate deaths_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
2040107
World total, World total
2199547 (±2.5%) 4.44 (±4.4%) 65.073 (±1.9%) 239.38 (±1.5%)
2035309
World without China, World without China
2221272 (±2.6%) 4.41 (±4.3%) 65.671 (±1.9%) 241.42 (±1.5%)
579643
North America, North America
509808 (±1.9%) 5.88 (±5.2%) 56.583 (±2.0%) 202.61 (±1.3%)
433132
Europe, Europe
42378365 (±324.4%) 5.69 (±60.0%) 230.103 (±34.5%) 1078.34 (±50.5%)
399003
USA, USA
334553 (±2.5%) 5.88 (±5.5%) 57.413 (±2.8%) 190.44 (±1.9%)
372878
South America, South America
349562 (±0.4%) 4.86 (±3.0%) 44.305 (±0.5%) 210.43 (±0.2%)
210299
Brazil
186545 (±0.5%) 4.52 (±2.7%) 41.447 (±0.8%) 193.93 (±0.3%)
176161
South Asia, South Asia
186256 (±0.2%) 2.43 (±4.1%) 45.276 (±0.3%) 233.88 (±0.1%)
115759
Middle East, Middle East
207525 (±3.2%) 4.93 (±4.1%) 78.708 (±1.5%) 311.90 (±1.4%)
88497
East Europe, East Europe
1495273 (±34.0%) 6.37 (±3.4%) 133.391 (±5.4%) 622.56 (±6.8%)
79408
Africa, Africa
69172 (±1.5%) 4.42 (±1.2%) 53.038 (±1.4%) 238.46 (±0.7%)
49004
Colombia
43254 (±0.7%) 4.19 (±1.4%) 42.870 (±1.0%) 235.83 (±0.3%)
45832
Argentina
50111 (±0.9%) 3.67 (±2.6%) 40.988 (±1.0%) 272.15 (±0.2%)
38770
Peru
37077 (±0.4%) 5.64 (±2.9%) 33.777 (±0.8%) 193.77 (±0.2%)
36898
South-East Asia, South-East Asia
44454 (±0.9%) 3.82 (±5.3%) 62.679 (±0.6%) 275.53 (±0.4%)
33407
Poland
295362194 (±263.5%) fiterr (±err) 162.178 (±14.0%) 962.34 (±17.9%)
24161
Turkey
11126251 (±237.8%) 8.81 (±3.0%) 236.404 (±19.0%) 1199.52 (±27.2%)
21847
Ukraine
1352374 (±23.3%) 2.51 (±10.6%) 131.915 (±2.7%) 684.99 (±3.2%)
20472
Belgium
79319 (±82.1%) 6.36 (±65.0%) 146.847 (±25.6%) 482.01 (±40.5%)
18130
Canada, Canada
10759 (±1.1%) 11.73 (±2.8%) 26.179 (±3.8%) 128.14 (±1.3%)
14322
Ecuador
16005 (±1.8%) 7.00 (±3.4%) 49.984 (±2.2%) 207.47 (±1.0%)
11055
Pakistan
7779 (±1.1%) 3.51 (±2.4%) 32.064 (±2.7%) 167.14 (±0.8%)
10456
East Asia, East Asia
6861 (±0.7%) 7.55 (±2.2%) 26.845 (±2.7%) 67.77 (±2.5%)
9680
Bolivia
9389 (±0.5%) 6.83 (±0.5%) 32.397 (±1.2%) 217.10 (±0.2%)
8792
Switzerland
11156652 (±653.0%) 17.29 (±3.7%) 258.433 (±44.2%) 1354.68 (±63.4%)
8638
Egypt
6647 (±0.5%) 7.82 (±1.0%) 31.357 (±1.2%) 175.52 (±0.3%)
8565
Bulgaria
2711024396 (±365.4%) 8.86 (±43.6%) 189.180 (±13.1%) 1171.57 (±17.8%)
7922
Bangladesh
7418 (±0.6%) 2.41 (±2.3%) 43.585 (±0.9%) 208.24 (±0.3%)
7122
Austria
9331878957 (±923.2%) 8.71 (±55.4%) 227.176 (±28.7%) 1406.13 (±40.8%)
6329
Saudi Arabia
6245 (±0.4%) 2.49 (±4.4%) 40.013 (±0.6%) 201.54 (±0.2%)
5750
Tunisia
5626 (±1.1%) 4.89 (±4.6%) 32.984 (±1.0%) 316.62 (±0.1%)
5278
Guatemala
4515 (±0.8%) 5.11 (±1.3%) 39.213 (±1.3%) 211.25 (±0.4%)
4828
Panama
3774 (±1.3%) 3.21 (±5.8%) 48.026 (±1.5%) 218.66 (±0.6%)
4798
China total, China total
4694 (±0.4%) 5.53 (±0.6%) 16.155 (±2.0%) 51.36 (±1.4%)
4512
Hubei, China
4505 (±0.4%) 6.67 (±0.6%) 15.946 (±2.0%) 51.10 (±1.4%)
4486
Bosnia and Herzegovina
384926480 (±208.3%) 6.86 (±6.4%) 218.360 (±8.6%) 1294.78 (±11.9%)
3771
Serbia
62368913 (±542.7%) 7.21 (±10.8%) 231.048 (±26.1%) 1321.06 (±36.5%)
3526
Slovakia
13069 (±13.1%) fiterr (±err) 59.223 (±3.0%) 411.17 (±1.7%)
3267
Moldova
6464 (±4.9%) 4.33 (±3.6%) 82.247 (±2.0%) 337.66 (±1.9%)
3022
Azerbaijan
262140528 (±485.8%) 5.06 (±3.3%) 237.728 (±19.6%) 1400.50 (±27.7%)
2998
Armenia
43486 (±47.9%) 4.67 (±3.0%) 129.131 (±8.2%) 592.21 (±10.3%)
2958
Georgia
1940499885 (±477.8%) 1.16 (±6.1%) 173.368 (±15.9%) 1101.19 (±21.3%)
2891
Kazakhstan
2444 (±0.6%) 1.64 (±8.1%) 27.639 (±1.6%) 212.86 (±0.3%)
2840
Algeria
3226 (±2.1%) 4.81 (±4.8%) 62.356 (±1.9%) 217.37 (±1.4%)
2616
Ireland
1865 (±0.5%) 7.63 (±2.3%) 15.001 (±2.7%) 110.38 (±0.5%)
2469
Lithuania
131155953 (±443.6%) fiterr (±err) 154.592 (±18.0%) 971.42 (±23.0%)
2458
Costa Rica
2509 (±0.7%) 2.65 (±4.4%) 45.017 (±0.7%) 277.03 (±0.2%)
2448
Dominican Republic
2552 (±0.7%) 2.64 (±5.4%) 42.581 (±1.1%) 190.57 (±0.4%)
2343
Afghanistan
1765 (±1.0%) 5.83 (±0.8%) 33.238 (±2.4%) 175.70 (±0.7%)
2033
Ethiopia
1927 (±0.6%) 1.98 (±12.2%) 38.139 (±0.9%) 240.97 (±0.2%)
1965
Nepal
2917 (±1.4%) 3.30 (±7.1%) 50.606 (±0.9%) 311.40 (±0.3%)
1959
Lebanon
3626 (±2.6%) fiterr (±err) 66.133 (±1.0%) 357.65 (±0.6%)
1805
Denmark
925 (±3.9%) 9.17 (±3.5%) 55.170 (±7.1%) 113.44 (±5.6%)
1734
Kenya
3307 (±4.5%) fiterr (±err) 69.973 (±2.2%) 318.77 (±1.6%)
1726
West Bank and Gaza
126949 (±53.1%) 4.64 (±5.9%) 131.782 (±5.7%) 699.24 (±6.8%)
1591
Belarus
1595 (±2.0%) 2.30 (±4.1%) 59.474 (±1.8%) 228.04 (±1.1%)
1514
Oman
1705 (±0.5%) 1.13 (±7.6%) 46.172 (±0.6%) 238.74 (±0.2%)
1447
Alberta, Canada
105943558 (±663.6%) 9.61 (±4.0%) 280.707 (±26.7%) 1630.14 (±38.6%)
1410
Kosovo
1914 (±6.0%) 5.99 (±3.1%) 62.673 (±3.6%) 290.23 (±2.3%)
1283
Korea - South
19847 (±161.3%) 8.24 (±2.6%) 204.588 (±24.6%) 862.06 (±37.0%)
1281
Albania
16444 (±23.8%) 0.67 (±67.7%) 115.624 (±4.1%) 553.20 (±4.8%)
1078
British Columbia, Canada
64009617 (±1005.6%) 6.02 (±30.3%) 299.367 (±41.8%) 1719.46 (±60.9%)
983
Latvia
1986344 (±245.1%) fiterr (±err) 124.570 (±14.8%) 769.71 (±17.0%)
945
Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania
964 (±0.8%) 6.14 (±3.6%) 24.066 (±2.7%) 219.49 (±0.3%)
841
Syria
4422 (±16.9%) 12.21 (±2.6%) 92.132 (±3.8%) 457.07 (±3.7%)
773
Manitoba, Canada
1399 (±4.3%) 4.09 (±36.4%) 39.925 (±2.0%) 351.39 (±0.5%)
751
United Arab Emirates
633 (±2.5%) 1.50 (±7.0%) 52.529 (±3.6%) 169.33 (±2.0%)
634
Congo (Kinshasa)
433 (±3.4%) 5.81 (±1.6%) 51.752 (±4.2%) 197.59 (±2.2%)
619
Uzbekistan
635 (±0.2%) 1.12 (±26.1%) 33.140 (±0.4%) 229.44 (±0.1%)
605
Malaysia
18188426 (±726.1%) 5.44 (±3.4%) 309.076 (±33.3%) 1738.93 (±48.6%)
557
Luxembourg
1833705 (±632.1%) 8.33 (±3.6%) 258.008 (±37.7%) 1393.23 (±53.8%)
521
Norway
289 (±1.1%) 4.69 (±3.5%) 19.001 (±5.2%) 101.92 (±1.6%)
455
Cameroon
432 (±0.2%) 2.06 (±3.6%) 25.750 (±0.8%) 144.43 (±0.2%)
439
Angola
493 (±0.8%) 3.95 (±5.8%) 47.639 (±0.7%) 270.87 (±0.2%)
360
Bahrain
383 (±0.8%) 0.64 (±10.8%) 44.096 (±1.1%) 216.27 (±0.4%)
326
Jamaica
307 (±0.9%) fiterr (±err) 32.507 (±1.3%) 277.18 (±0.2%)
304
Uganda
470 (±5.7%) fiterr (±err) 57.262 (±2.9%) 327.60 (±1.4%)
293
Namibia
161 (±1.2%) 3.34 (±7.6%) 28.571 (±2.8%) 239.68 (±0.4%)
282
Belize
1344 (±13.1%) 6.02 (±6.5%) 67.664 (±3.3%) 410.57 (±2.2%)
249
Mozambique
236 (±2.0%) 3.60 (±8.1%) 52.722 (±1.3%) 300.63 (±0.5%)
248
Qatar
234 (±0.3%) fiterr (±err) 29.164 (±0.9%) 171.37 (±0.2%)
241
Malta
3677 (±26.7%) fiterr (±err) 92.880 (±4.5%) 508.98 (±4.2%)
240
Haiti
758795750 (±4653.6%) 2.98 (±2.0%) 471.874 (±144.5%) 2797.57 (±219.7%)
175
Bahamas
183 (±1.2%) 3.63 (±5.5%) 35.061 (±1.9%) 257.16 (±0.3%)
170
Guyana
199 (±2.0%) 1.10 (±43.9%) 45.050 (±2.0%) 266.87 (±0.6%)
156
Guadeloupe, France
161 (±1.5%) fiterr (±err) 26.739 (±3.1%) 274.31 (±0.3%)
146
Rwanda
162 (±12.2%) 3.14 (±11.9%) 71.944 (±5.0%) 347.70 (±3.7%)
145
Niger
72 (±0.6%) 12.74 (±1.7%) 17.147 (±3.0%) 115.34 (±0.7%)
132
Trinidad and Tobago
125 (±0.9%) fiterr (±err) 27.904 (±1.9%) 255.45 (±0.2%)
127
French Polynesia, France
152 (±2.2%) 1.32 (±25.4%) 36.195 (±1.7%) 321.70 (±0.3%)
120
Cabo Verde
140 (±1.7%) 2.04 (±10.4%) 48.723 (±1.6%) 254.92 (±0.6%)
114
Congo (Brazzaville)
100 (±0.8%) 2.04 (±6.7%) 35.218 (±1.8%) 179.14 (±0.5%)
113
Chad
97 (±1.4%) 10.01 (±2.1%) 37.225 (±5.0%) 120.41 (±2.9%)
105
Burkina Faso
61 (±0.8%) 8.22 (±3.5%) 17.859 (±4.2%) 99.57 (±1.2%)
101
Lesotho
46 (±0.9%) 6.64 (±4.8%) 28.082 (±2.5%) 217.24 (±0.4%)
91
Andorra
101 (±9.9%) 7.20 (±3.6%) 81.708 (±11.1%) 129.69 (±17.7%)
88
Botswana
50 (±1.9%) fiterr (±err) 45.293 (±1.6%) 286.47 (±0.5%)
84
Liberia
85 (±0.7%) 5.36 (±2.7%) 30.144 (±2.0%) 157.79 (±0.6%)
81
Guinea
81 (±0.4%) 1.12 (±4.2%) 41.772 (±0.7%) 177.52 (±0.3%)
78
Channel Islands, United Kingdom
48 (±0.3%) 11.22 (±1.9%) 11.754 (±2.0%) 106.49 (±0.3%)
74
Togo
95 (±2.6%) 3.44 (±9.1%) 61.491 (±2.0%) 250.32 (±1.3%)
65
Nova Scotia, Canada
64 (±0.1%) 5.88 (±0.9%) 12.121 (±0.8%) 118.13 (±0.1%)
63
Central African Republic
62 (±0.2%) 1.21 (±11.4%) 13.191 (±1.5%) 171.23 (±0.1%)
61
Djibouti
61 (±0.2%) 1.52 (±5.5%) 16.429 (±0.8%) 152.23 (±0.1%)
58
Mayotte, France
46 (±0.7%) 1.95 (±7.9%) 28.671 (±2.2%) 143.01 (±0.7%)
54
New South Wales, Australia
52 (±0.2%) 1.40 (±3.9%) 15.896 (±1.3%) 99.64 (±0.3%)
52
Aruba, Netherlands
49 (±1.0%) fiterr (±err) 32.333 (±1.8%) 257.10 (±0.3%)
49
Comoros
7 (±0.6%) 8.09 (±29.3%) 14.478 (±3.8%) 159.24 (±0.4%)
46
Benin
42 (±0.3%) 2.12 (±16.9%) 21.129 (±1.2%) 178.07 (±0.2%)
45
Reunion, France
83 (±6.6%) 4.84 (±5.0%) 60.781 (±3.4%) 321.14 (±1.9%)
43
Martinique, France
180070 (±560.2%) fiterr (±err) 300.286 (±34.5%) 1590.50 (±50.3%)
25
New Zealand
23 (±0.4%) 1.51 (±2.2%) 10.105 (±3.3%) 106.65 (±0.4%)
22
Henan, China
22 (±0.1%) 1.80 (±2.0%) 5.514 (±1.1%) 42.12 (±0.2%)
19
Curacao, Netherlands
374 (±118.3%) fiterr (±err) 72.363 (±17.6%) 476.94 (±13.0%)

For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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