Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.
Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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Actualisation date: Fri Aug 14 19:32:42 UTC 2020
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| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_dead | death rate (err) | death_rate | deaths_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 749366 World total, World total | 778309 (±1.7%) |  | 7.06 (±5.2%) |  |  | 30.974 (±1.9%) | 137.02 (±0.8%) |
| 744669 World without China, World without China | 773494 (±1.8%) |  | 7.07 (±5.3%) |  |  | 30.904 (±2.0%) | 137.54 (±0.9%) |
| 237910 North America, North America | 232585 (±1.5%) |  | 7.95 (±4.5%) |  |  | 27.675 (±2.0%) | 133.21 (±0.7%) |
| 166034 USA, USA | 149566 (±0.9%) |  | 7.08 (±4.4%) |  |  | 22.135 (±1.9%) | 119.11 (±0.5%) |
| 159129 South America, South America | 239752 (±1.5%) |  | 4.58 (±2.6%) |  |  | 34.877 (±0.9%) | 185.86 (±0.5%) |
| 139608 Europe, Europe | 135364 (±0.2%) |  | 11.26 (±1.3%) |  |  | 14.277 (±0.7%) | 98.30 (±0.1%) |
| 104201 Brazil | 129448 (±1.0%) |  | 4.65 (±3.3%) |  |  | 30.824 (±0.8%) | 170.67 (±0.3%) |
| 58152 South Asia, South Asia | 112270 (±2.1%) |  | 3.25 (±4.9%) |  |  | 37.446 (±1.0%) | 205.56 (±0.5%) |
| 54666 Mexico | 73945 (±0.8%) |  | 12.54 (±2.5%) |  |  | 31.277 (±0.6%) | 181.70 (±0.2%) |
| 47033 India | 128066 (±3.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 41.983 (±1.3%) | 226.14 (±0.9%) |
| 46706 United Kingdom | 44929 (±0.4%) |  | 16.54 (±0.8%) |  |  | 17.027 (±1.1%) | 109.40 (±0.2%) |
| 36798 Middle East, Middle East | 63810 (±6.3%) |  | 4.89 (±5.0%) |  |  | 45.830 (±3.2%) | 185.40 (±2.8%) |
| 35225 Italy | 34698 (±0.2%) |  | 15.25 (±0.9%) |  |  | 14.829 (±0.7%) | 93.00 (±0.2%) |
| 30247 France | 29607 (±0.2%) |  | 15.64 (±0.8%) |  |  | 12.424 (±0.8%) | 99.38 (±0.1%) |
| 24171 Africa, Africa | 82525 (±3.1%) |  | 3.03 (±4.3%) |  |  | 48.518 (±1.0%) | 239.92 (±0.8%) |
| 21501 Peru | 54958 (±8.5%) |  | 6.26 (±2.7%) |  |  | 43.468 (±3.3%) | 218.89 (±2.3%) |
| 17825 East Europe, East Europe | 21232 (±0.6%) |  | 2.91 (±4.6%) |  |  | 29.668 (±0.6%) | 164.80 (±0.2%) |
| 13837 Colombia | 156776 (±7.4%) |  | 4.15 (±4.2%) |  |  | 53.442 (±1.4%) | 294.75 (±1.2%) |
| 11010 South Africa | 121308 (±10.5%) |  | 1.92 (±5.0%) |  |  | 52.746 (±2.0%) | 292.46 (±1.8%) |
| 10205 Chile | 11643 (±1.2%) |  | 1.97 (±13.5%) |  |  | 23.414 (±1.3%) | 173.96 (±0.3%) |
| 9900 Belgium | 9721 (±0.1%) |  | 16.14 (±0.7%) |  |  | 12.317 (±0.6%) | 103.32 (±0.1%) |
| 9213 Germany | 8997 (±0.2%) |  | 5.22 (±2.1%) |  |  | 13.858 (±0.7%) | 104.25 (±0.1%) |
| 9052 Canada, Canada | 8971 (±0.1%) |  | 8.86 (±1.8%) |  |  | 17.203 (±0.4%) | 121.24 (±0.1%) |
| 8520 South-East Asia, South-East Asia | 17620 (±6.1%) |  | 5.19 (±3.9%) |  |  | 46.754 (±2.6%) | 204.53 (±2.2%) |
| 6161 Netherlands | 6110 (±0.1%) |  | 12.74 (±1.1%) |  |  | 13.486 (±0.4%) | 99.95 (±0.1%) |
| 6129 Pakistan | 6980 (±1.2%) |  | 2.60 (±5.0%) |  |  | 24.289 (±1.4%) | 161.95 (±0.3%) |
| 6075 East Asia, East Asia | 5974 (±0.8%) |  | 5.76 (±1.5%) |  |  | 19.723 (±2.3%) | 60.53 (±1.5%) |
| 5903 Indonesia | 16164 (±5.6%) |  | 5.68 (±4.5%) |  |  | 49.406 (±2.0%) | 224.88 (±1.8%) |
| 5709 Quebec, Canada | 5713 (±0.1%) |  | 10.46 (±1.9%) |  |  | 17.194 (±0.4%) | 123.50 (±0.1%) |
| 5588 Iraq | 6776 (±1.1%) |  | 4.79 (±5.4%) |  |  | 23.112 (±1.0%) | 187.76 (±0.2%) |
| 5213 Argentina | 25191907 (±70.8%) |  | 1.41 (±20.9%) |  |  | 108.692 (±4.1%) | 623.85 (±5.3%) |
| 4697 China total, China total | 4620 (±0.7%) |  | 5.63 (±0.9%) |  |  | 15.590 (±2.8%) | 50.74 (±1.8%) |
| 3827 Bolivia | 13141 (±3.7%) |  | 5.59 (±4.7%) |  |  | 41.989 (±1.2%) | 236.28 (±0.8%) |
| 3513 Bangladesh | 4738 (±0.7%) |  | 2.14 (±6.2%) |  |  | 30.656 (±0.5%) | 180.08 (±0.2%) |
| 3269 Saudi Arabia | 4489 (±1.8%) |  | 2.22 (±5.6%) |  |  | 30.324 (±1.3%) | 182.01 (±0.5%) |
| 2833 Ontario, Canada | 2791 (±0.2%) |  | 8.38 (±2.2%) |  |  | 16.486 (±0.6%) | 118.28 (±0.1%) |
| 2404 Philippines | 3329 (±6.0%) |  | 4.57 (±11.7%) |  |  | 41.098 (±3.6%) | 172.33 (±2.6%) |
| 2267 Guatemala | 3430 (±1.1%) |  | 4.94 (±8.7%) |  |  | 28.477 (±0.7%) | 195.24 (±0.2%) |
| 1999 Ukraine | 2508 (±2.0%) |  | 5.28 (±5.1%) |  |  | 34.283 (±1.5%) | 166.82 (±0.7%) |
| 1991 Switzerland | 1957 (±0.1%) |  | 6.42 (±2.0%) |  |  | 11.855 (±0.4%) | 96.44 (±0.1%) |
| 1774 Ireland | 1737 (±0.2%) |  | 6.94 (±0.9%) |  |  | 12.813 (±0.9%) | 109.12 (±0.1%) |
| 1764 Portugal | 1676 (±0.5%) |  | 5.21 (±3.0%) |  |  | 18.716 (±1.4%) | 108.94 (±0.4%) |
| 1533 Honduras | 9958 (±13.2%) |  | 3.05 (±9.2%) |  |  | 52.855 (±3.1%) | 272.32 (±2.8%) |
| 1371 Dominican Republic | 2412 (±8.1%) |  | 4.36 (±5.9%) |  |  | 46.501 (±4.1%) | 191.31 (±3.4%) |
| 1354 Afghanistan | 2618462135 (±1457.2%) |  | 3.74 (±1.4%) |  |  | 176.834 (±45.7%) | 1070.46 (±67.1%) |
| 1333 Algeria | 1466 (±3.0%) |  | 6.79 (±4.1%) |  |  | 33.621 (±3.1%) | 139.70 (±1.5%) |
| 1066 Japan | 1001 (±0.3%) |  | 4.80 (±4.6%) |  |  | 16.144 (±0.8%) | 114.79 (±0.2%) |
| 956 Nigeria | 1168 (±0.8%) |  | 3.84 (±6.0%) |  |  | 29.407 (±0.8%) | 165.95 (±0.3%) |
| 863 Moldova | 1086 (±1.1%) |  | 5.75 (±6.0%) |  |  | 32.701 (±0.9%) | 164.76 (±0.4%) |
| 806 Armenia | 1002 (±1.1%) |  | 0.68 (±45.3%) |  |  | 27.227 (±0.9%) | 175.38 (±0.3%) |
| 724 Austria | 694 (±0.3%) |  | 4.26 (±1.2%) |  |  | 12.811 (±1.2%) | 98.64 (±0.2%) |
| 658 Serbia | 15552 (±129.1%) |  | 4.77 (±3.1%) |  |  | 93.003 (±20.1%) | 420.92 (±26.7%) |
| 639 Israel | 1004 (±21.1%) |  | 3.07 (±5.0%) |  |  | 51.077 (±11.5%) | 181.98 (±11.2%) |
| 621 Denmark | 605 (±0.2%) |  | 4.89 (±2.5%) |  |  | 14.178 (±0.8%) | 100.52 (±0.2%) |
| 595 Belarus | 720 (±1.0%) |  | 1.64 (±8.8%) |  |  | 31.330 (±0.9%) | 158.30 (±0.4%) |
| 577 El Salvador | 1554 (±5.4%) |  | 5.11 (±8.3%) |  |  | 37.820 (±2.0%) | 223.96 (±1.1%) |
| 556 Morocco | 4642 (±148.8%) |  | 5.02 (±4.1%) |  |  | 90.322 (±29.9%) | 372.43 (±41.3%) |
| 530 North Macedonia | 1044 (±5.0%) |  | 5.38 (±27.5%) |  |  | 41.351 (±2.5%) | 196.97 (±1.7%) |
| 528 Yemen | 567 (±1.1%) |  | 30.78 (±2.7%) |  |  | 21.762 (±1.4%) | 169.30 (±0.2%) |
| 497 Azerbaijan | 924 (±3.3%) |  | 1.70 (±33.3%) |  |  | 34.622 (±1.7%) | 199.51 (±0.8%) |
| 489 Kuwait | 474 (±0.8%) |  | 1.27 (±15.9%) |  |  | 21.982 (±1.3%) | 148.43 (±0.3%) |
| 456 Kenya | 26902 (±47.3%) |  | 1.11 (±34.4%) |  |  | 79.089 (±5.7%) | 411.13 (±6.7%) |
| 453 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 5651 (±87.2%) |  | 9.17 (±6.9%) |  |  | 82.259 (±15.6%) | 367.99 (±19.9%) |
| 401 Cameroon | 434 (±1.2%) |  | 2.08 (±10.0%) |  |  | 25.638 (±1.6%) | 144.64 (±0.4%) |
| 391 Czechia | 358 (±0.6%) |  | 4.12 (±3.7%) |  |  | 16.031 (±1.9%) | 104.59 (±0.4%) |
| 387 Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania | 26712 (±450.9%) |  | 3.92 (±2.5%) |  |  | 120.268 (±50.2%) | 571.26 (±70.7%) |
| 358 United Arab Emirates | 340 (±0.5%) |  | 1.15 (±8.5%) |  |  | 17.717 (±1.4%) | 123.68 (±0.3%) |
| 341 Kosovo | 1474721 (±285.1%) |  | 5.46 (±59.7%) |  |  | 93.828 (±16.7%) | 553.05 (±20.9%) |
| 333 Finland | 329 (±0.2%) |  | 5.21 (±2.6%) |  |  | 12.773 (±0.8%) | 110.58 (±0.1%) |
| 305 Korea - South | 286 (±0.3%) |  | 2.70 (±1.5%) |  |  | 15.154 (±1.2%) | 81.03 (±0.4%) |
| 247 Venezuela | 22964 (±54.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 72.068 (±5.9%) | 399.14 (±6.5%) |
| 246 Zambia | 596 (±19.1%) |  | 12.16 (±6.6%) |  |  | 28.929 (±7.5%) | 221.67 (±2.7%) |
| 242 Senegal | 408 (±2.6%) |  | 2.24 (±17.2%) |  |  | 35.384 (±1.4%) | 195.35 (±0.7%) |
| 225 Congo (Kinshasa) | 288 (±2.6%) |  | 1.86 (±10.4%) |  |  | 31.424 (±2.3%) | 161.99 (±0.9%) |
| 223 Ghana | 403 (±5.9%) |  | 1.44 (±10.9%) |  |  | 38.342 (±2.9%) | 199.94 (±1.7%) |
| 217 Alberta, Canada | 178 (±1.2%) |  | 3.13 (±6.4%) |  |  | 19.819 (±3.0%) | 114.29 (±0.7%) |
| 216 Greece | 196 (±0.5%) |  | 6.71 (±2.4%) |  |  | 17.015 (±1.7%) | 98.91 (±0.4%) |
| 208 Albania | 8395662 (±449.2%) |  | 6.95 (±11.3%) |  |  | 139.970 (±20.2%) | 812.51 (±28.2%) |
| 195 British Columbia, Canada | 187 (±0.4%) |  | 7.65 (±2.9%) |  |  | 18.501 (±1.2%) | 107.38 (±0.3%) |
| 190 Qatar | 211 (±1.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 24.651 (±1.5%) | 167.04 (±0.3%) |
| 187 Haiti | 220 (±1.2%) |  | 2.75 (±6.8%) |  |  | 27.767 (±1.2%) | 170.67 (±0.3%) |
| 166 Bahrain | 203 (±2.4%) |  | 0.40 (±37.0%) |  |  | 26.170 (±2.1%) | 179.07 (±0.5%) |
| 160 Croatia | 130 (±1.5%) |  | 6.17 (±2.8%) |  |  | 19.861 (±3.7%) | 113.55 (±0.9%) |
| 157 Mauritania | 158 (±0.3%) |  | 2.51 (±7.3%) |  |  | 15.154 (±0.9%) | 160.10 (±0.1%) |
| 156 Madagascar | 2429 (±31.7%) |  | 2.09 (±29.0%) |  |  | 48.022 (±5.4%) | 291.41 (±4.3%) |
| 152 Malawi | 279 (±6.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 23.971 (±3.5%) | 211.11 (±0.8%) |
| 129 Slovenia | 113 (±0.4%) |  | 8.06 (±1.8%) |  |  | 12.805 (±1.8%) | 100.40 (±0.3%) |
| 128 Nicaragua | 136 (±1.6%) |  | 4.17 (±10.7%) |  |  | 24.897 (±1.9%) | 162.95 (±0.4%) |
| 125 Malaysia | 120 (±0.3%) |  | 1.77 (±9.8%) |  |  | 13.011 (±1.4%) | 92.99 (±0.3%) |
| 122 Luxembourg | 112 (±0.3%) |  | 3.05 (±2.9%) |  |  | 13.077 (±1.2%) | 97.13 (±0.2%) |
| 105 Cote d’Ivoire | 157 (±3.0%) |  | 1.95 (±9.2%) |  |  | 35.477 (±2.1%) | 174.00 (±1.1%) |
| 93 Paraguay | 672419 (±566.1%) |  | 2.84 (±14.1%) |  |  | 112.664 (±30.2%) | 652.31 (±40.1%) |
| 91 Nepal | 518 (±60.5%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 54.734 (±14.0%) | 279.77 (±12.8%) |
| 88 Cuba | 86 (±0.2%) |  | 4.04 (±1.8%) |  |  | 12.379 (±0.8%) | 108.29 (±0.1%) |
| 82 Liberia | 548 (±49.6%) |  | 6.28 (±13.7%) |  |  | 66.981 (±11.9%) | 294.86 (±13.6%) |
| 81 Lithuania | 80 (±0.5%) |  | 5.18 (±3.5%) |  |  | 18.924 (±1.2%) | 109.70 (±0.3%) |
| 73 Montenegro | 419192 (±429.0%) |  | 14.67 (±5.4%) |  |  | 106.196 (±24.1%) | 615.22 (±31.4%) |
| 69 Estonia | 68 (±0.4%) |  | 3.99 (±4.8%) |  |  | 12.966 (±1.5%) | 102.20 (±0.3%) |
| 64 Nova Scotia, Canada | 63 (±0.2%) |  | 6.15 (±1.3%) |  |  | 11.642 (±0.8%) | 117.85 (±0.1%) |
| 63 Hong Kong, China | 122603 (±472.9%) |  | 3.12 (±14.1%) |  |  | 70.053 (±30.4%) | 439.95 (±33.4%) |
| 61 Central African Republic | 58 (±0.8%) |  | 0.97 (±39.3%) |  |  | 11.446 (±2.7%) | 170.77 (±0.2%) |
| 60 Congo (Brazzaville) | 84 (±3.4%) |  | 2.09 (±18.1%) |  |  | 34.963 (±2.5%) | 170.62 (±1.2%) |
| 59 Djibouti | 59 (±0.5%) |  | 2.13 (±9.0%) |  |  | 15.735 (±1.3%) | 151.82 (±0.2%) |
| 58 Thailand | 58 (±0.1%) |  | 1.77 (±6.8%) |  |  | 9.826 (±0.8%) | 95.41 (±0.1%) |
| 53 Andorra | 52 (±0.2%) |  | 6.70 (±1.5%) |  |  | 12.295 (±1.1%) | 97.31 (±0.2%) |
| 51 New South Wales, Australia | 49 (±0.4%) |  | 1.48 (±6.8%) |  |  | 14.622 (±1.3%) | 98.66 (±0.3%) |
| 50 French Guiana, France | 55 (±1.7%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 18.829 (±2.1%) | 187.27 (±0.2%) |
| 48 Channel Islands, United Kingdom | 47 (±0.3%) |  | 8.54 (±0.7%) |  |  | 11.145 (±1.4%) | 106.21 (±0.2%) |
| 47 South Sudan | 47 (±1.2%) |  | 2.49 (±12.0%) |  |  | 17.139 (±2.8%) | 158.09 (±0.3%) |
| 42 San Marino | 42 (±0.2%) |  | 6.54 (±2.4%) |  |  | 10.551 (±1.1%) | 81.79 (±0.2%) |
| 39 Mayotte, France | 40 (±0.8%) |  | 1.94 (±11.5%) |  |  | 21.870 (±1.4%) | 137.32 (±0.3%) |
| 38 Benin | 46 (±2.5%) |  | 3.10 (±31.8%) |  |  | 22.544 (±2.7%) | 180.40 (±0.5%) |
| 37 Uruguay | 39 (±2.7%) |  | 4.78 (±3.4%) |  |  | 30.994 (±3.8%) | 125.35 (±1.4%) |
| 33 Cabo Verde | 72 (±12.0%) |  | 2.15 (±9.2%) |  |  | 40.072 (±4.9%) | 215.23 (±3.1%) |
| 32 Latvia | 31 (±0.7%) |  | 3.46 (±3.8%) |  |  | 19.103 (±1.7%) | 118.79 (±0.4%) |
| 31 Slovakia | 28 (±0.3%) |  | 2.31 (±6.0%) |  |  | 9.593 (±1.6%) | 109.70 (±0.2%) |
| 29 Guinea-Bissau | 29 (±1.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 20.526 (±2.3%) | 156.00 (±0.4%) |
| 27 Singapore | 27 (±0.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 17.291 (±1.0%) | 107.35 (±0.2%) |
| 26 Togo | 21 (±4.7%) |  | 4.48 (±10.7%) |  |  | 31.132 (±6.4%) | 126.06 (±2.5%) |
| 24 Isle of Man, United Kingdom | 24 (±0.3%) |  | 7.21 (±1.1%) |  |  | 7.037 (±1.8%) | 110.35 (±0.1%) |
| 22 Henan, China | 22 (±0.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 5.516 (±1.5%) | 42.12 (±0.3%) |
| 21 Maldives | 42 (±14.6%) |  | 0.53 (±73.4%) |  |  | 44.529 (±6.7%) | 206.47 (±4.9%) |
| 20 Saskatchewan, Canada | 22 (±3.8%) |  | 3.66 (±6.1%) |  |  | 35.127 (±3.8%) | 141.75 (±1.9%) |
| 19 Mozambique | 39 (±18.5%) |  | 2.44 (±16.5%) |  |  | 38.464 (±7.7%) | 217.40 (±4.3%) |
| 18 Vietnam | 29 (±38.3%) |  | 5.28 (±3.5%) |  |  | 12.311 (±22.8%) | 219.90 (±1.6%) |
For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.