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Covid-19 in Germany

Covid-19 analyis and forecast.

Jens Röder

2 minutes read

which trend of the Covid-19 epidemic can be seen for Germany?

Covid-19 in Germany

The course of the number of cases in an infection in the form of a S curve that is stretched at the last end. Currently, Germany has left the linear phase. From the expected total number of infected cases, about 99% have been reached. The fading out of the curve, however, will reqire some time. In the Figure of infections per day, the decline is clearly visible. We can expect around May 24 that the number of infections per day drop below the 100 limit, so that contact backtracing becomes logicistially possible again, that indicates possibly the end of the crisis in Germany. This day might be delayed a bit, because at current trend, data are about 3.2% above the expected data with increasing tendency.

The trend monitor, who indicates the change of real data from expected curve data, shows a weekly wave form with a declining amplitude. The maximum is always a Friday, which may be the result of the logistic chain of doctoral visits, tests and test reporting. Apart from that, there is no significant diviation from the expected curve.

Although in the recent days the death rate was slightly rising during the last days, that would have indicated that we might have a different delay of the case fatality rate than we observe in the data of China. If we use the todays (May 17) time difference between the two curves of infected and dead by -13.4 days, we would obtain a case fatality rate by 5.6% that is slightly higher as in China. It would also mean that patients in critical conditions could in the average been keept alife longer than in China before they die. o How the rate is calculated can be found here.

Here, the cumulative dates of deaths in the past few days have been illogical: Cumulative numbers can never drop below the previous value. This then leads to negative daily case numbers as shown two figures below. The last four numbers follow an extremely strong drop, which cannot exist naturally.

The graphic will be updated.

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day numbers of 2020date
8020 March 2020
9030 March 2020
1009 April 2020
11019 April 2020
12029 April 2020
1309 May 2020
14019 May 2020
15029 May 2020
1608 June 2020
17018 June 2020
18028 June 2020


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