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Covid-19 in France

Covid-19 analysis and forecast.

Jens Röder

2 minutes read

which trend of the Covid-19 epidemic can be seen for France?

Covid-19 in France

The data in France show strong statistical errors. Over 25,000 new infections in one day with a baseline of 5,000. Several times backwards moving cumulative data, which is logically not possible. This leads to considerable error values and poor prediction quality. It is also observed, that Google does not have regional numbers from France. It indicates problems of France providing proper data, or just doesn’t want it.

We can now calculate that the death curve follows the infection curve as normaly dalayed by around -4.5 days. Before it was 4 days ahead which is illogic and was a matter of data errors. Now, the delay of about -4.5 days is similar as in Spain or Italy. With this delay, the case fatality rate is about 16%, which is conciderably high.

From the trend monitor we can visualize that the errors of real data from the expected data vary around ±10%, which is significanlty more than it can be observed in other countries.

Because of these major errors, the calculated date of May 29 is the day when the number of new infections per day will presumably fall below 100 cases.

Graphis will be updated daily.

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day numbers of 2020date
8020 March 2020
9030 March 2020
1009 April 2020
11019 April 2020
12029 April 2020
1309 May 2020
14019 May 2020
15029 May 2020
1608 June 2020
17018 June 2020
18028 June 2020


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