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Covid-19 in Italy

Covid-19 analysis and forecast.

Jens Röder

2 minutes read

what is the tend of the Covid-19 epidemic Italy?

Covid-19 in Italy

Italy has made huge efforts to bring the severe epidemic to a turn. The turning point is well crossed since more than a month and the number of new infections per day is decreasing day by day. Italy has now left the linear phase and is now at the asymptotic approach to Nmax. About 99% of the expected cases are reached. During the least days, data are above the expected curve, delaying the end date. However, fading out the epidemic still needs time. In the week of June 7 with a later tendency it can be expected that the number of infections per day will drop below 100 cases, so that infection backtracing will be logistically possible again.

The case fatality rate in Italy is quite high, which needs further investigation. Posthumous testing might be one reason and that mainly people, who had already problems, were coming to the hospital. Loosing more patients by an overrun hospital system might be another cause. This is indicated, like in Spain, by the very low delay time between the death and infection curve of only -4 days (also -3 in Spain). This corrects the case fatality rates to about 16%. In comparison: In Germany is this delay time -14 days, which means that in Germany seriously ill patients have been kept much longer alive before they died.

How the case fatality rate is calculated here, can be found here.

The graphs are update daily.

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