Labor am Elm

Beratung und Forschung

COVID-19 Regionale Zahlen der Verstorbenen

gefittet mit erweiterter Gompertz Funktion

Jens Röder

10 Minuten

mit erweiterter Gompertz Funktion

Alle Datenanpassungen (Fits) der einzelnen Länder/Orte sind vollständig automatisiert erstellt. Durch Anklicken auf das Bild kann überprüft werden, ob der Fit die notwendige Qualität hat anhand der Lage der Daten zur Funktion uns seiner Fehlerwerte. In einigen Fällen mit sehr streuenden realen Daten kann der Fit auch eine schlechte Vorhersage ergeben. Anhand der Fehlerwerte und des optischen Verlaufs sollten die Aussagen sinnvoll bewertet werden.

Orte oder Länder, die wegen ungenügender Daten wurden ausgelassen und können hier mit Begründung gefunden werden..

Die Tabelle zeigt von links: aktuelle Verstorbenenanzahl und Land/Ort, maximale kumulative Anzahl (fit), Graphik Verstorbener und fit, Graphik Verstorbener pro Tag und fit, T2 Verdopplungszeit, Tag des Wendepunkts der Funktion.

Der Wendepunkt ist von Bedeutung, weil die Änderung vom reinen exponentiellen Wachstum zur linearen Phase und dem Abklingen der täglichen Verstorbenenzahlen anzeigt.

Die oben-mittig angezeigte Verdopplungszeit in der Graphik beschreibt die Verdopplungszeit am Anfang der Entwicklung vor dem Wendepunkt. Diese Zahl ist mit der Logistischen Funktion berechnet worden. Einfach gesagt beschreibt T2 der Gompertz funktion den mittleren und späteren Teil der Entwicklung, die Logistische Funktion den ersten Teil.

Farbencode für die Zahlen der Verstorbenen: Unter 30 , zwischen 30 und 99, zwischen 100 und 499, zwischen 500 und 999, zwischen 1000 und 4999, zwischen 5000.

Der Farbencode für Länder/Orte beschreibt den Anteil, wieviel von Nmax durchlaufen wurde: Über 95%, zwischen 90% und 95%, zwischen 80% und 89%, zwischen 70% und 79%, zwischen 60% und 69%, wenn die Anzahl über 50 und Nmax ist unter 50% oder die Verdopplungszeit ist unter 3.5 Tage! Über 130% zeigt einen Neuausbruch der Verstorbenenwelle an.

Der Farbencode für Länder/Orte zeigt gut an, wie gut der Covid-19-Ausbruch ausgeklungen ist und wenn er wieder unter Kontrolle ist (grünliche Farben). Länder/Orte in rot oder magenta haben aktuell einen starken Anstieg in den Fallszahlen. Der Farbencode bei den Zahlen gibt an, wie schwer der Ausbruch in einem Land/Ort war oder ist.

Angewendete Mathematik ist hier erklärt.


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Aktualisierungsdatum: Sa 26. Sep 06:16:25 CEST 2020

Klicken auf den rechten Pfeil öffnet den Inhalt, Klicken auf das Bild vergrößert es.
Naktuell
Land/Ort
Nmax (err) kumulativ_Tote. Sterberate (err) Sterberate Tote_täglich T2 (err) dWendepunkt (err)
981808
World total, World total
1075571 (±1.7%) 5.66 (±5.7%) 39.785 (±1.7%) 160.89 (±0.9%)
977070
World without China, World without China
1073750 (±1.8%) 5.63 (±5.7%) 39.848 (±1.8%) 161.62 (±1.0%)
299633
North America, North America
310013 (±1.5%) 6.70 (±4.9%) 36.034 (±1.9%) 152.03 (±0.9%)
232225
South America, South America
295157 (±0.7%) 4.61 (±3.0%) 38.715 (±0.6%) 197.61 (±0.2%)
202798
USA, USA
189225 (±1.3%) 6.39 (±4.8%) 30.453 (±2.3%) 132.32 (±0.9%)
148000
Europe, Europe
138453 (±0.2%) 10.60 (±1.9%) 14.822 (±1.0%) 98.68 (±0.2%)
139808
Brazil
156936 (±0.7%) 4.31 (±2.9%) 35.085 (±0.7%) 181.25 (±0.3%)
104616
South Asia, South Asia
185179 (±1.5%) 2.86 (±4.0%) 45.584 (±0.8%) 234.02 (±0.4%)
91149
India
193785 (±1.3%) 2.48 (±6.5%) 47.830 (±0.6%) 249.20 (±0.4%)
75439
Mexico
86892 (±0.5%) 11.71 (±1.3%) 34.549 (±0.5%) 189.96 (±0.2%)
51037
Middle East, Middle East
72756 (±2.4%) 4.88 (±4.9%) 48.589 (±1.6%) 196.00 (±1.2%)
41902
United Kingdom
41021 (±0.2%) 13.93 (±1.1%) 15.525 (±0.7%) 107.17 (±0.1%)
35781
Italy
35012 (±0.2%) 14.79 (±0.9%) 15.075 (±0.7%) 93.23 (±0.2%)
34576
Africa, Africa
48117 (±1.2%) 2.79 (±3.0%) 39.412 (±0.9%) 206.89 (±0.4%)
31870
Peru
43406 (±2.3%) 6.60 (±3.0%) 37.977 (±1.8%) 203.08 (±0.7%)
31333
France
29969 (±0.2%) 14.29 (±1.8%) 12.733 (±0.9%) 99.60 (±0.2%)
31118
Spain
28538 (±0.2%) 11.20 (±2.2%) 12.653 (±1.2%) 94.33 (±0.2%)
25015
Iran
37481 (±3.8%) 8.34 (±5.0%) 51.516 (±2.4%) 195.68 (±2.0%)
24746
Colombia
36457 (±1.4%) 3.05 (±2.7%) 35.704 (±0.9%) 223.96 (±0.3%)
24507
East Europe, East Europe
26030 (±0.9%) 3.18 (±4.1%) 34.714 (±1.0%) 176.22 (±0.3%)
19867
Russia
20565 (±0.6%) 3.00 (±4.1%) 32.337 (±0.8%) 171.88 (±0.2%)
16283
South Africa
19896 (±1.4%) 2.14 (±2.7%) 30.304 (±1.4%) 208.59 (±0.3%)
15454
South-East Asia, South-East Asia
44791 (±5.8%) 5.58 (±5.7%) 63.054 (±1.9%) 276.87 (±1.9%)
14766
Argentina
108305 (±7.6%) 2.88 (±2.9%) 61.622 (±1.6%) 331.60 (±1.4%)
12469
Chile
12329 (±0.5%) 2.87 (±4.2%) 25.010 (±0.8%) 176.02 (±0.1%)
11213
Ecuador
22178 (±20.2%) 11.86 (±8.7%) 60.794 (±8.8%) 242.23 (±8.5%)
10105
Indonesia
20382 (±2.6%) 5.19 (±2.7%) 54.073 (±1.2%) 243.06 (±0.9%)
9996
Belgium
9797 (±0.1%) 14.73 (±1.3%) 12.505 (±0.7%) 103.45 (±0.1%)
9436
Germany
9123 (±0.2%) 4.95 (±2.0%) 14.233 (±0.8%) 104.53 (±0.2%)
9297
Canada, Canada
9083 (±0.1%) 8.37 (±1.7%) 17.576 (±0.4%) 121.58 (±0.1%)
8799
Iraq
9773 (±1.1%) 4.67 (±4.8%) 30.723 (±1.1%) 201.58 (±0.3%)
7785
Turkey
6291 (±1.1%) 4.10 (±2.6%) 23.848 (±2.9%) 116.96 (±0.9%)
7765
Bolivia
21602 (±8.7%) 6.37 (±1.9%) 50.292 (±3.2%) 266.56 (±2.2%)
6680
East Asia, East Asia
6151 (±0.6%) 5.78 (±1.7%) 20.787 (±2.0%) 62.02 (±1.4%)
6444
Pakistan
6541 (±0.4%) 2.44 (±3.7%) 22.584 (±1.0%) 159.75 (±0.2%)
6312
Netherlands
6154 (±0.1%) 11.67 (±1.7%) 13.662 (±0.5%) 100.09 (±0.1%)
5878
Sweden
5789 (±0.2%) 7.98 (±2.5%) 19.320 (±0.7%) 112.78 (±0.2%)
5835
Egypt
5952 (±0.7%) 5.43 (±1.7%) 26.085 (±1.2%) 170.66 (±0.2%)
5810
Quebec, Canada
5741 (±0.1%) 10.11 (±1.5%) 17.334 (±0.3%) 123.62 (±0.1%)
5127
Philippines
146728 (±42.8%) 1.68 (±15.2%) 100.989 (±6.1%) 482.59 (±7.7%)
5072
Bangladesh
5901 (±0.7%) 2.20 (±4.4%) 35.422 (±0.7%) 191.58 (±0.2%)
4738
China total, China total
4654 (±0.6%) 5.60 (±0.7%) 15.849 (±2.4%) 51.03 (±1.6%)
4599
Saudi Arabia
5141 (±0.7%) 2.44 (±5.7%) 33.458 (±0.8%) 188.83 (±0.2%)
4591
Romania
13562 (±12.6%) 7.53 (±9.1%) 68.670 (±4.4%) 277.75 (±4.7%)
4512
Hubei, China
4501 (±0.6%) 6.69 (±0.8%) 15.911 (±2.4%) 51.06 (±1.6%)
3838
Ukraine
10790 (±10.3%) 5.43 (±5.9%) 63.451 (±3.5%) 277.27 (±3.4%)
3170
Guatemala
3439 (±0.3%) 4.06 (±1.9%) 28.650 (±0.3%) 195.42 (±0.1%)
2885
Ontario, Canada
2824 (±0.1%) 7.68 (±1.7%) 16.842 (±0.6%) 118.58 (±0.1%)
2369
Poland
2204 (±1.2%) 6.16 (±4.3%) 31.709 (±2.0%) 139.63 (±0.7%)
2297
Panama
3243 (±2.5%) 2.78 (±10.3%) 40.388 (±1.8%) 204.87 (±0.9%)
2249
Honduras
2885 (±1.6%) 3.26 (±5.6%) 36.001 (±1.3%) 205.64 (±0.5%)
2076
Dominican Republic
4744 (±5.6%) 3.46 (±6.5%) 59.484 (±2.4%) 246.39 (±2.2%)
2061
Switzerland
1976 (±0.1%) 6.18 (±2.0%) 12.082 (±0.7%) 96.60 (±0.1%)
1956
Morocco
477327812 (±503.3%) 3.94 (±26.8%) 161.623 (±18.7%) 974.55 (±26.2%)
1931
Portugal
1773 (±0.5%) 5.03 (±3.0%) 20.822 (±1.6%) 110.95 (±0.5%)
1797
Ireland
1754 (±0.2%) 6.75 (±0.9%) 13.063 (±0.8%) 109.27 (±0.1%)
1703
Algeria
1958 (±2.2%) 5.47 (±5.0%) 41.777 (±2.1%) 161.64 (±1.2%)
1699
Kazakhstan
1862 (±1.3%) 1.81 (±12.8%) 23.483 (±1.8%) 207.15 (±0.2%)
1540
Japan
1235 (±1.4%) 5.97 (±3.8%) 25.073 (±3.2%) 122.19 (±1.1%)
1498
Kyrgyzstan
1215 (±1.2%) 1.76 (±74.4%) 2.733 (±17.6%) 199.35 (±0.1%)
1451
Afghanistan
2479227485 (±2606.4%) 3.88 (±0.9%) 256.791 (±84.2%) 1528.84 (±125.7%)
1378
Israel
6676564 (±317.1%) 4.46 (±5.4%) 174.960 (±18.5%) 957.97 (±26.0%)
1252
Moldova
1427 (±1.3%) 5.04 (±5.9%) 39.357 (±1.2%) 182.28 (±0.6%)
1148
Ethiopia
2109 (±3.9%) 3.56 (±13.0%) 36.880 (±2.0%) 243.52 (±0.8%)
1102
Nigeria
1149 (±0.3%) 3.33 (±5.9%) 29.101 (±0.4%) 165.19 (±0.1%)
945
Armenia
968 (±0.3%) fiterr (±err) 26.532 (±0.5%) 174.01 (±0.1%)
903
Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania
113686458 (±561.8%) 7.63 (±3.3%) 169.839 (±22.6%) 1003.87 (±31.8%)
885
Oman
1173 (±1.1%) 1.00 (±16.7%) 37.049 (±0.8%) 214.26 (±0.3%)
836
Sudan
832 (±0.3%) 7.51 (±2.1%) 22.322 (±0.8%) 155.71 (±0.2%)
823
El Salvador
971 (±0.8%) 3.43 (±7.0%) 30.393 (±0.8%) 203.00 (±0.2%)
802
Belarus
858 (±1.0%) 1.80 (±7.8%) 36.117 (±1.1%) 169.19 (±0.4%)
795
Costa Rica
1685 (±5.2%) fiterr (±err) 38.202 (±2.2%) 257.42 (±0.9%)
785
Bulgaria
2095 (±5.0%) 4.45 (±18.1%) 59.122 (±1.8%) 263.56 (±1.6%)
783
Austria
713 (±0.3%) 4.15 (±1.8%) 13.531 (±1.5%) 99.13 (±0.3%)
781
Victoria, Australia
953 (±1.8%) fiterr (±err) 23.209 (±1.8%) 229.83 (±0.2%)
745
Serbia
1115 (±5.4%) 4.50 (±3.5%) 46.879 (±3.9%) 189.94 (±2.6%)
743
Paraguay
2222 (±8.3%) 5.11 (±37.1%) 35.899 (±2.8%) 271.84 (±1.1%)
712
North Macedonia
813 (±1.3%) 3.18 (±30.9%) 36.908 (±1.2%) 181.92 (±0.5%)
709
Hungary
612 (±0.4%) 14.73 (±2.4%) 17.070 (±1.3%) 114.41 (±0.3%)
669
Kenya
984 (±3.1%) fiterr (±err) 38.741 (±2.2%) 215.45 (±0.9%)
645
Denmark
614 (±0.2%) 4.65 (±2.3%) 14.566 (±0.9%) 100.84 (±0.2%)
592
Kuwait
564 (±0.8%) 1.07 (±12.1%) 27.259 (±1.5%) 155.83 (±0.4%)
586
Yemen
588 (±0.4%) 29.89 (±1.2%) 22.717 (±0.8%) 170.45 (±0.1%)
581
Azerbaijan
612 (±0.7%) 1.49 (±23.5%) 26.824 (±1.1%) 181.36 (±0.2%)
567
Czechia
412 (±1.2%) 4.87 (±4.2%) 22.835 (±3.6%) 108.80 (±1.2%)
488
Kosovo
556 (±1.9%) 3.86 (±49.8%) 22.906 (±2.8%) 207.80 (±0.3%)
474
Libya
5559 (±10.4%) 1.59 (±18.9%) 59.952 (±1.9%) 344.84 (±1.6%)
453
Nepal
21104013 (±334.2%) 1.88 (±6.1%) 123.552 (±14.8%) 752.39 (±19.3%)
446
Uzbekistan
682 (±2.3%) 3.97 (±11.2%) 34.815 (±1.4%) 232.77 (±0.5%)
418
Cameroon
425 (±0.5%) 2.02 (±6.2%) 25.035 (±1.0%) 143.67 (±0.3%)
407
United Arab Emirates
371 (±0.6%) 1.10 (±7.8%) 20.900 (±1.8%) 126.43 (±0.4%)
395
Korea - South
307 (±0.8%) 3.18 (±1.9%) 17.819 (±2.8%) 83.21 (±1.1%)
370
Albania
1154 (±10.2%) 2.98 (±33.0%) 55.801 (±3.5%) 274.30 (±2.8%)
366
Greece
313 (±4.4%) 8.99 (±3.3%) 40.886 (±6.0%) 125.68 (±3.5%)
343
Finland
332 (±0.2%) 5.03 (±2.2%) 12.985 (±0.8%) 110.70 (±0.1%)
332
Zambia
340 (±1.1%) 2.47 (±70.7%) 21.400 (±1.9%) 205.64 (±0.2%)
329
Lebanon
70372429 (±444.2%) 4.06 (±35.3%) 156.246 (±16.6%) 945.11 (±23.1%)
304
Senegal
354 (±0.7%) 3.28 (±5.6%) 32.256 (±0.8%) 187.73 (±0.2%)
299
Ghana
384 (±1.7%) 1.43 (±10.5%) 36.450 (±1.5%) 196.28 (±0.6%)
274
West Bank and Gaza
843 (±12.8%) fiterr (±err) 48.070 (±4.2%) 276.60 (±2.7%)
271
Congo (Kinshasa)
290 (±0.9%) 2.50 (±4.6%) 31.538 (±1.2%) 162.39 (±0.4%)
270
Norway
253 (±0.3%) 3.17 (±2.9%) 12.827 (±1.5%) 98.84 (±0.3%)
261
Alberta, Canada
258 (±2.4%) 2.99 (±4.4%) 35.016 (±3.6%) 134.61 (±1.5%)
231
Bahrain
238 (±1.0%) 0.70 (±13.3%) 30.232 (±1.3%) 185.87 (±0.3%)
227
British Columbia, Canada
200 (±0.6%) 7.49 (±3.4%) 21.017 (±1.7%) 109.84 (±0.5%)
212
Qatar
212 (±0.4%) fiterr (±err) 24.920 (±0.8%) 167.32 (±0.2%)
183
Syria
680 (±8.9%) 4.18 (±20.0%) 47.780 (±2.7%) 283.26 (±1.7%)
180
Tunisia
722227 (±1426.9%) 12.33 (±3.4%) 220.501 (±83.1%) 1183.85 (±120.8%)
179
Malawi
183 (±0.5%) 2.62 (±14.1%) 17.695 (±1.3%) 201.55 (±0.1%)
162
Angola
240 (±2.8%) 4.23 (±9.2%) 35.880 (±1.7%) 232.22 (±0.6%)
161
Mauritania
159 (±0.2%) 2.42 (±4.5%) 15.335 (±0.7%) 160.21 (±0.1%)
154
Montenegro
375 (±9.7%) fiterr (±err) 48.056 (±3.7%) 263.82 (±2.3%)
149
Nicaragua
151 (±0.7%) 4.10 (±7.8%) 27.536 (±1.1%) 167.40 (±0.3%)
145
Slovenia
121 (±0.7%) 7.90 (±2.4%) 15.122 (±3.0%) 101.87 (±0.7%)
133
Malaysia
123 (±0.3%) 1.77 (±8.1%) 13.632 (±1.5%) 93.37 (±0.3%)
130
Mali
128 (±0.3%) 5.73 (±3.2%) 20.438 (±0.8%) 134.20 (±0.2%)
124
Luxembourg
116 (±0.4%) 2.77 (±3.0%) 14.125 (±1.9%) 97.90 (±0.4%)
120
Cote d’Ivoire
133 (±0.8%) 1.70 (±9.2%) 31.704 (±1.1%) 164.56 (±0.3%)
119
Namibia
149 (±2.5%) 2.87 (±9.7%) 22.905 (±2.2%) 236.95 (±0.3%)
118
Cuba
91 (±0.7%) 4.68 (±2.4%) 14.078 (±3.4%) 109.21 (±0.6%)
114
Congo (Brazzaville)
141 (±6.0%) 2.49 (±12.8%) 44.931 (±4.0%) 203.90 (±2.4%)
108
Eswatini
124 (±1.6%) 1.29 (±39.7%) 26.243 (±1.8%) 213.57 (±0.3%)
102
Suriname
313 (±11.6%) 3.06 (±8.5%) 47.146 (±4.1%) 271.11 (±2.5%)
98
Somalia
95 (±0.3%) 3.78 (±4.3%) 16.662 (±1.0%) 125.53 (±0.2%)
89
Lithuania
83 (±0.4%) 5.01 (±3.5%) 20.052 (±1.3%) 110.80 (±0.4%)
82
Chad
76 (±0.3%) 8.87 (±1.8%) 11.545 (±1.7%) 129.86 (±0.2%)
77
Jamaica
15205574 (±1274.7%) 8.23 (±6.1%) 155.546 (±47.0%) 943.56 (±65.3%)
74
Tajikistan
66 (±1.4%) 1.62 (±10.2%) 22.426 (±4.9%) 132.09 (±1.1%)
72
Sierra Leone
69 (±0.5%) 4.14 (±2.9%) 19.400 (±1.7%) 136.46 (±0.3%)
71
Guyana
4013990 (±542.5%) 6.17 (±22.9%) 184.132 (±23.3%) 1066.62 (±33.2%)
70
Uganda
128 (±5.2%) fiterr (±err) 28.500 (±2.7%) 253.61 (±0.6%)
69
Estonia
66 (±0.3%) 3.69 (±4.1%) 12.463 (±1.7%) 101.80 (±0.3%)
65
Nova Scotia, Canada
64 (±0.2%) 6.18 (±1.0%) 11.887 (±0.9%) 117.99 (±0.1%)
62
Central African Republic
61 (±0.5%) 1.11 (±22.1%) 12.537 (±2.0%) 171.06 (±0.1%)
61
Djibouti
60 (±0.3%) 1.80 (±7.2%) 16.089 (±1.0%) 152.04 (±0.1%)
59
Thailand
58 (±0.1%) 1.78 (±5.3%) 9.889 (±0.7%) 95.45 (±0.1%)
56
Burkina Faso
54 (±0.2%) 5.91 (±2.7%) 13.359 (±0.9%) 97.17 (±0.2%)
55
Cabo Verde
76 (±3.2%) 2.54 (±8.8%) 41.022 (±2.0%) 217.92 (±1.0%)
54
Gabon
54 (±0.5%) 0.96 (±17.4%) 22.364 (±1.3%) 153.42 (±0.3%)
53
Andorra
52 (±0.2%) 6.11 (±1.8%) 12.504 (±1.0%) 97.46 (±0.2%)
51
Mozambique
36097 (±212.9%) fiterr (±err) 118.312 (±16.0%) 652.97 (±20.4%)
49
South Sudan
48 (±0.6%) 2.48 (±7.4%) 17.777 (±1.8%) 158.49 (±0.2%)
48
Channel Islands, United Kingdom
47 (±0.2%) 8.30 (±0.7%) 11.323 (±1.3%) 106.29 (±0.2%)
47
Uruguay
53 (±2.6%) 5.24 (±3.6%) 42.096 (±2.9%) 148.82 (±1.6%)
44
Togo
16241 (±268.9%) 2.91 (±15.5%) 159.801 (±23.1%) 805.25 (±32.6%)
42
Guadeloupe, France
267 (±342.7%) 18.78 (±3.9%) 143.165 (±72.2%) 535.98 (±113.4%)
41
Slovakia
31 (±0.9%) 2.53 (±6.1%) 11.624 (±5.1%) 110.59 (±0.7%)
40
Benin
41 (±0.6%) 2.39 (±24.9%) 19.947 (±1.5%) 177.44 (±0.2%)
39
Guinea-Bissau
39 (±1.6%) fiterr (±err) 28.969 (±2.6%) 167.02 (±0.6%)
36
Latvia
33 (±0.6%) 3.57 (±3.4%) 21.244 (±1.8%) 120.60 (±0.5%)
35
Lesotho
33 (±0.9%) 3.74 (±16.9%) 15.937 (±2.2%) 209.52 (±0.1%)
34
Maldives
72 (±6.8%) 1.39 (±9.2%) 52.631 (±3.1%) 241.45 (±2.3%)
27
Malta
3755 (±800.8%) 4.11 (±4.8%) 181.187 (±78.5%) 868.59 (±114.1%)
26
Georgia
19 (±1.3%) 2.40 (±4.5%) 27.048 (±3.4%) 120.95 (±1.1%)
25
Aruba, Netherlands
6198585 (±1072.5%) fiterr (±err) 136.459 (±39.7%) 842.71 (±53.6%)
24
Saskatchewan, Canada
31 (±2.9%) 3.45 (±6.2%) 44.023 (±2.7%) 166.23 (±1.6%)
22
Belize
183060 (±635.5%) fiterr (±err) 112.360 (±34.6%) 671.06 (±43.4%)
20
Martinique, France
15 (±0.8%) 7.92 (±3.2%) 11.120 (±4.6%) 99.72 (±0.7%)

Länder/Orte in dieser Liste müssen Bedingungen im Datensatz haben: Anzahl Verstorbener muß mindestens 13 betragen und weiterhin mindestens 7 subsequent steigende Zahlen vorliegen. Bei Erstaufnahme wird der Wendepunkt geraten, wobei die x über die Hälfte vom Maximalwert gesucht wird und den ersten darüber nimmt. Ist der Wendepunkt dann am letzten Wert, wird dieser Datensatz übersprungen.

Ausgelassene Länder/Orte können in dieser Liste gefunden werden.


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