Labor am Elm

Beratung und Forschung

COVID-19 Regionale Zahlen der Verstorbenen

gefittet mit erweiterter Gompertz Funktion

Jens Röder

9 Minuten

mit erweiterter Gompertz Funktion

Alle Datenanpassungen (Fits) der einzelnen Länder/Orte sind vollständig automatisiert erstellt. Durch Anklicken auf das Bild kann überprüft werden, ob der Fit die notwendige Qualität hat anhand der Lage der Daten zur Funktion uns seiner Fehlerwerte. In einigen Fällen mit sehr streuenden realen Daten kann der Fit auch eine schlechte Vorhersage ergeben. Anhand der Fehlerwerte und des optischen Verlaufs sollten die Aussagen sinnvoll bewertet werden.

Orte oder Länder, die wegen ungenügender Daten wurden ausgelassen und können hier mit Begründung gefunden werden..

Die Tabelle zeigt von links: aktuelle Verstorbenenanzahl und Land/Ort, maximale kumulative Anzahl (fit), Graphik Verstorbener und fit, Graphik Verstorbener pro Tag und fit, T2 Verdopplungszeit, Tag des Wendepunkts der Funktion.

Der Wendepunkt ist von Bedeutung, weil die Änderung vom reinen exponentiellen Wachstum zur linearen Phase und dem Abklingen der täglichen Verstorbenenzahlen anzeigt.

Die oben-mittig angezeigte Verdopplungszeit in der Graphik beschreibt die Verdopplungszeit am Anfang der Entwicklung vor dem Wendepunkt. Diese Zahl ist mit der Logistischen Funktion berechnet worden. Einfach gesagt beschreibt T2 der Gompertz funktion den mittleren und späteren Teil der Entwicklung, die Logistische Funktion den ersten Teil.

Farbencode für die Zahlen der Verstorbenen: Unter 30 , zwischen 30 und 99, zwischen 100 und 499, zwischen 500 und 999, zwischen 1000 und 4999, zwischen 5000.

Der Farbencode für Länder/Orte beschreibt den Anteil, wieviel von Nmax durchlaufen wurde: Über 95%, zwischen 90% und 95%, zwischen 80% und 89%, zwischen 70% und 79%, zwischen 60% und 69%, wenn die Anzahl über 50 und Nmax ist unter 50% oder die Verdopplungszeit ist unter 3.5 Tage! Über 130% zeigt einen Neuausbruch der Verstorbenenwelle an.

Der Farbencode für Länder/Orte zeigt gut an, wie gut der Covid-19-Ausbruch ausgeklungen ist und wenn er wieder unter Kontrolle ist (grünliche Farben). Länder/Orte in rot oder magenta haben aktuell einen starken Anstieg in den Fallszahlen. Der Farbencode bei den Zahlen gibt an, wie schwer der Ausbruch in einem Land/Ort war oder ist.

Angewendete Mathematik ist hier erklärt.


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Aktualisierungsdatum: Sa 11. Jul 06:15:12 CEST 2020

Klicken auf den rechten Pfeil öffnet den Inhalt, Klicken auf das Bild vergrößert es.
Naktuell
Land/Ort
Nmax (err) kumulativ_Tote. Sterberate (err) Sterberate Tote_täglich T2 (err) dWendepunkt (err)
554924
World total, World total
563719 (±1.3%) 8.07 (±4.4%) 23.539 (±1.6%) 119.95 (±0.5%)
550283
World without China, World without China
557575 (±1.3%) 8.18 (±4.5%) 23.390 (±1.7%) 120.34 (±0.6%)
179691
North America, North America
179688 (±1.1%) 8.57 (±3.8%) 21.579 (±1.5%) 121.85 (±0.4%)
136323
Europe, Europe
133109 (±0.2%) 11.74 (±1.2%) 13.847 (±0.5%) 97.94 (±0.1%)
133290
USA, USA
128735 (±0.6%) 7.49 (±3.7%) 18.325 (±1.1%) 114.27 (±0.2%)
95471
South America, South America
157561 (±0.8%) 4.59 (±3.8%) 28.619 (±0.4%) 166.74 (±0.2%)
69184
Brazil
97153 (±0.8%) 4.91 (±3.6%) 26.098 (±0.5%) 158.39 (±0.2%)
44602
United Kingdom
43218 (±0.4%) 16.72 (±1.1%) 16.038 (±1.1%) 108.35 (±0.2%)
34926
Italy
34344 (±0.2%) 15.56 (±1.2%) 14.564 (±0.7%) 92.74 (±0.2%)
33526
Mexico
71670 (±2.1%) 13.97 (±2.5%) 30.510 (±0.9%) 179.99 (±0.5%)
29916
South Asia, South Asia
98486 (±6.8%) 3.38 (±4.7%) 35.219 (±2.2%) 198.55 (±1.5%)
29889
France
29250 (±0.2%) 16.02 (±0.9%) 12.133 (±0.8%) 99.18 (±0.1%)
28752
Spain
27810 (±0.3%) 12.62 (±1.2%) 12.061 (±1.0%) 93.86 (±0.2%)
24547
Middle East, Middle East
26781 (±3.6%) 4.56 (±4.6%) 29.136 (±3.2%) 127.25 (±1.7%)
21604
India
77855 (±8.3%) 3.89 (±4.3%) 35.756 (±2.6%) 202.39 (±1.7%)
12619
East Europe, East Europe
17577 (±0.8%) 2.65 (±5.1%) 26.549 (±0.6%) 156.72 (±0.2%)
12366
Africa, Africa
76895 (±10.7%) 3.58 (±5.3%) 47.339 (±2.5%) 235.16 (±2.4%)
12305
Iran
11372 (±2.4%) 8.00 (±3.1%) 24.855 (±3.2%) 107.69 (±1.3%)
11314
Peru
19663 (±1.9%) 4.48 (±3.4%) 29.751 (±1.0%) 168.59 (±0.5%)
10826
Russia
14935 (±0.9%) 2.63 (±5.2%) 25.886 (±0.6%) 157.10 (±0.2%)
9778
Belgium
9638 (±0.2%) 16.71 (±0.6%) 12.118 (±0.6%) 103.18 (±0.1%)
9057
Germany
8870 (±0.2%) 5.41 (±2.5%) 13.501 (±0.6%) 103.97 (±0.1%)
8797
Canada, Canada
8893 (±0.2%) 9.28 (±2.2%) 16.981 (±0.5%) 121.01 (±0.1%)
6682
Chile
10062 (±4.4%) 1.57 (±28.8%) 21.180 (±2.9%) 169.73 (±0.7%)
6137
Netherlands
6081 (±0.1%) 13.33 (±1.2%) 13.373 (±0.4%) 99.85 (±0.1%)
5918
East Asia, East Asia
5962 (±1.1%) 5.90 (±1.5%) 19.653 (±2.8%) 60.43 (±1.7%)
5609
Quebec, Canada
5725 (±0.3%) 10.80 (±2.6%) 17.244 (±0.6%) 123.55 (±0.1%)
5500
Sweden
5466 (±0.6%) 10.42 (±4.1%) 18.664 (±1.1%) 116.44 (±0.2%)
5300
Turkey
5015 (±0.5%) 3.60 (±3.6%) 15.234 (±1.2%) 109.14 (±0.2%)
5058
Pakistan
12630 (±5.8%) 2.98 (±6.3%) 32.827 (±2.3%) 185.26 (±1.4%)
4939
South-East Asia, South-East Asia
6253 (±2.9%) 4.96 (±4.7%) 29.838 (±2.2%) 141.34 (±1.1%)
4900
Ecuador
4830 (±1.1%) 9.74 (±6.6%) 18.819 (±1.8%) 129.03 (±0.3%)
4791
Colombia
18429445 (±89.3%) 4.98 (±4.8%) 85.009 (±5.3%) 492.55 (±6.8%)
4641
China total, China total
4595 (±1.0%) 5.61 (±1.0%) 15.404 (±3.2%) 50.54 (±2.0%)
4512
Hubei, China
4483 (±1.0%) 6.72 (±1.2%) 15.778 (±3.3%) 50.92 (±2.0%)
3720
South Africa
16168 (±7.0%) 1.78 (±12.7%) 35.349 (±1.9%) 210.02 (±1.3%)
3617
Egypt
128020 (±37.1%) 4.69 (±4.7%) 59.649 (±5.1%) 312.71 (±5.6%)
3417
Indonesia
6674 (±6.0%) 7.74 (±7.2%) 36.971 (±2.7%) 172.20 (±2.0%)
2882
Iraq
81117921 (±298.1%) 6.10 (±47.7%) 76.608 (±13.9%) 475.41 (±17.3%)
2750
Ontario, Canada
2741 (±0.3%) 8.97 (±2.4%) 16.011 (±0.6%) 117.84 (±0.1%)
2238
Bangladesh
5661 (±3.9%) 2.63 (±10.8%) 32.808 (±1.5%) 187.28 (±0.9%)
2100
Saudi Arabia
18688 (±14.1%) 1.63 (±8.2%) 45.913 (±2.9%) 244.29 (±2.6%)
1966
Switzerland
1943 (±0.1%) 6.57 (±2.5%) 11.709 (±0.4%) 96.33 (±0.1%)
1834
Romania
1739 (±1.3%) 9.09 (±2.7%) 20.832 (±2.0%) 119.11 (±0.5%)
1743
Ireland
1715 (±0.3%) 6.88 (±1.3%) 12.512 (±1.0%) 108.94 (±0.1%)
1720
Argentina
18814 (±19.6%) 2.83 (±20.0%) 53.570 (±3.7%) 267.04 (±3.9%)
1644
Portugal
1574 (±0.6%) 5.62 (±3.1%) 16.873 (±1.3%) 106.98 (±0.3%)
1638
Bolivia
120330 (±35.4%) 4.77 (±4.4%) 59.443 (±4.0%) 328.74 (±4.4%)
1551
Poland
1546 (±1.3%) 6.68 (±3.9%) 21.037 (±1.9%) 121.30 (±0.5%)
1344
Ukraine
1699 (±2.0%) 4.95 (±4.9%) 27.293 (±1.5%) 147.14 (±0.6%)
1314
Philippines
1329 (±1.0%) 6.64 (±7.8%) 21.748 (±1.5%) 118.11 (±0.4%)
1092
Guatemala
2588 (±5.5%) 6.17 (±7.1%) 26.055 (±2.2%) 187.19 (±0.9%)
988
Algeria
1001 (±2.8%) 7.86 (±3.9%) 24.193 (±3.5%) 118.03 (±1.2%)
982
Japan
985 (±0.3%) 5.02 (±5.2%) 15.688 (±0.8%) 114.46 (±0.1%)
957
Afghanistan
2717768003 (±651.4%) 2.92 (±2.9%) 130.805 (±19.4%) 807.68 (±28.0%)
842
Dominican Republic
905 (±3.3%) 4.43 (±6.0%) 26.636 (±3.3%) 128.30 (±1.3%)
839
Panama
2645 (±20.9%) 5.57 (±5.9%) 45.584 (±6.5%) 206.95 (±6.2%)
706
Austria
679 (±0.3%) 4.40 (±1.1%) 12.266 (±1.1%) 98.25 (±0.2%)
704
Honduras
59232 (±72.6%) 5.71 (±10.8%) 69.942 (±8.1%) 366.56 (±9.7%)
689
Nigeria
1036 (±2.6%) 3.96 (±5.5%) 27.724 (±1.6%) 161.02 (±0.7%)
641
Sudan
733 (±1.4%) 7.74 (±3.2%) 19.024 (±1.6%) 151.97 (±0.3%)
624
Moldova
961 (±2.8%) 6.07 (±5.7%) 30.598 (±1.7%) 158.61 (±0.9%)
609
Denmark
598 (±0.3%) 4.96 (±3.3%) 13.859 (±0.8%) 100.24 (±0.1%)
591
Hungary
583 (±0.3%) 15.02 (±1.3%) 15.673 (±0.7%) 113.19 (±0.1%)
535
Armenia
1130 (±6.4%) 1.71 (±32.2%) 28.986 (±2.8%) 179.92 (±1.3%)
449
Belarus
587 (±1.8%) 1.61 (±9.2%) 27.666 (±1.4%) 148.53 (±0.6%)
382
Kuwait
409 (±0.6%) 1.56 (±17.6%) 18.634 (±0.7%) 143.97 (±0.1%)
362
North Macedonia
13066 (±74.6%) 10.10 (±8.6%) 70.350 (±10.2%) 345.71 (±12.5%)
361
Yemen
471 (±3.9%) 25.27 (±71.9%) 19.246 (±3.2%) 164.53 (±0.6%)
359
Cameroon
431 (±3.8%) 2.52 (±16.2%) 25.690 (±3.2%) 144.47 (±1.1%)
353
Czechia
339 (±0.5%) 4.24 (±3.7%) 14.410 (±1.5%) 103.29 (±0.3%)
352
Serbia
277 (±1.1%) 3.18 (±5.4%) 15.993 (±2.8%) 107.24 (±0.5%)
348
Israel
310 (±0.6%) 2.07 (±4.1%) 14.215 (±1.8%) 104.48 (±0.3%)
329
Finland
328 (±0.3%) 5.46 (±3.2%) 12.735 (±1.0%) 110.55 (±0.1%)
328
United Arab Emirates
316 (±0.5%) 1.16 (±14.5%) 15.676 (±1.2%) 121.92 (±0.2%)
288
Korea - South
277 (±0.2%) 2.68 (±1.6%) 14.277 (±0.7%) 80.20 (±0.2%)
284
Azerbaijan
27817139 (±185.9%) 5.10 (±10.2%) 108.999 (±7.6%) 651.16 (±10.5%)
264
Kazakhstan
11830493 (±516.3%) 2.20 (±7.6%) 96.991 (±22.8%) 581.23 (±30.5%)
262
Bulgaria
342 (±2.7%) 7.18 (±4.9%) 29.607 (±1.9%) 145.81 (±1.0%)
252
Norway
242 (±0.3%) 3.35 (±4.0%) 11.658 (±1.1%) 98.12 (±0.2%)
243
El Salvador
5459402 (±260.8%) 4.45 (±5.7%) 88.934 (±12.5%) 532.96 (±16.3%)
242
Morocco
214 (±0.7%) 3.52 (±6.8%) 13.376 (±2.1%) 98.38 (±0.4%)
236
Oman
1166 (±10.4%) 1.99 (±10.9%) 38.064 (±2.7%) 215.95 (±2.0%)
214
Bosnia and Herzegovina
198 (±1.3%) 8.50 (±4.1%) 20.202 (±2.1%) 119.63 (±0.5%)
193
Greece
187 (±0.5%) 6.83 (±2.9%) 15.593 (±1.5%) 97.59 (±0.3%)
189
Congo (Kinshasa)
1674 (±26.3%) 1.27 (±33.7%) 54.312 (±5.5%) 258.74 (±5.9%)
186
British Columbia, Canada
177 (±0.4%) 8.32 (±3.1%) 16.906 (±0.9%) 105.64 (±0.2%)
173
Kenya
379 (±4.7%) 2.60 (±20.7%) 34.244 (±2.0%) 179.46 (±1.3%)
161
Alberta, Canada
156 (±0.3%) 2.65 (±7.4%) 15.614 (±0.8%) 110.30 (±0.2%)
144
Mauritania
145 (±0.8%) 3.17 (±15.8%) 13.648 (±1.2%) 158.72 (±0.1%)
143
Senegal
1338 (±23.6%) fiterr (±err) 47.363 (±4.8%) 248.64 (±4.5%)
142
Qatar
326 (±10.5%) fiterr (±err) 30.910 (±4.3%) 183.26 (±2.3%)
129
Ghana
1563212 (±349.8%) 0.72 (±43.2%) 102.687 (±18.3%) 590.47 (±24.7%)
128
Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania
126 (±0.3%) fiterr (±err) 12.182 (±1.0%) 98.62 (±0.2%)
123
Haiti
207 (±3.9%) fiterr (±err) 27.277 (±2.2%) 168.82 (±0.9%)
122
Kyrgyzstan
5396636 (±794.0%) 6.64 (±7.6%) 90.360 (±34.5%) 549.59 (±45.3%)
121
Malaysia
118 (±0.4%) 1.83 (±12.0%) 12.466 (±1.4%) 92.62 (±0.3%)
120
Ethiopia
131 (±3.1%) fiterr (±err) 15.367 (±3.4%) 165.05 (±0.4%)
115
Croatia
109 (±0.4%) 5.52 (±3.4%) 14.073 (±1.0%) 108.91 (±0.2%)
111
Slovenia
109 (±0.2%) 7.54 (±1.7%) 12.039 (±0.7%) 99.86 (±0.1%)
110
Luxembourg
110 (±0.3%) 3.06 (±2.9%) 12.702 (±0.9%) 96.83 (±0.2%)
103
Bahrain
2937793 (±440.8%) 0.31 (±45.1%) 95.839 (±20.8%) 568.45 (±27.6%)
92
Somalia
93 (±0.7%) 4.58 (±6.3%) 16.212 (±1.5%) 125.15 (±0.2%)
91
Nicaragua
102 (±2.9%) 3.76 (±19.7%) 19.391 (±3.0%) 153.59 (±0.5%)
86
Cuba
85 (±0.3%) 4.24 (±1.9%) 12.126 (±0.9%) 108.14 (±0.1%)
83
Albania
14459 (±602.5%) 7.56 (±5.0%) 110.574 (±58.5%) 541.96 (±82.3%)
80
Venezuela
1127178 (±636.2%) fiterr (±err) 101.036 (±31.8%) 587.79 (±42.8%)
79
Cote d’Ivoire
241 (±16.1%) 2.70 (±10.3%) 42.426 (±5.5%) 199.05 (±4.7%)
74
Chad
73 (±0.5%) 9.05 (±4.4%) 10.660 (±1.7%) 129.44 (±0.1%)
69
Estonia
69 (±0.4%) 4.23 (±5.8%) 13.231 (±1.3%) 102.41 (±0.2%)
68
Niger
70 (±0.6%) 7.65 (±1.8%) 16.169 (±1.3%) 114.61 (±0.2%)
63
Nova Scotia, Canada
63 (±0.3%) 6.12 (±1.8%) 11.495 (±0.9%) 117.76 (±0.1%)
58
Thailand
57 (±0.2%) 1.77 (±8.9%) 9.744 (±0.9%) 95.37 (±0.1%)
56
Djibouti
62 (±1.8%) 2.45 (±9.9%) 16.685 (±2.3%) 152.86 (±0.3%)
54
Tajikistan
51 (±0.6%) 1.87 (±13.2%) 8.873 (±2.3%) 130.99 (±0.1%)
53
Burkina Faso
53 (±0.2%) 6.93 (±2.7%) 13.026 (±0.8%) 96.91 (±0.1%)
52
Andorra
51 (±0.4%) 6.87 (±1.7%) 12.196 (±1.3%) 97.23 (±0.2%)
51
Uzbekistan
7623 (±452.5%) 1.13 (±26.0%) 92.194 (±42.8%) 470.53 (±57.0%)
50
Tunisia
49 (±0.5%) 4.90 (±2.7%) 11.949 (±1.7%) 95.17 (±0.3%)
49
New South Wales, Australia
49 (±0.5%) 1.45 (±8.7%) 14.603 (±1.5%) 98.64 (±0.3%)
48
Channel Islands, United Kingdom
47 (±0.5%) 8.68 (±0.9%) 11.089 (±1.7%) 106.19 (±0.2%)
47
Congo (Brazzaville)
578 (±50.7%) 6.33 (±11.6%) 60.124 (±9.5%) 284.02 (±10.9%)
46
Gabon
102 (±8.7%) 1.38 (±23.3%) 31.906 (±3.9%) 177.77 (±2.2%)
42
Liberia
40 (±1.9%) 9.07 (±7.6%) 21.510 (±2.9%) 122.82 (±0.7%)
38
Libya
853504 (±523.7%) fiterr (±err) 79.236 (±24.9%) 486.56 (±31.3%)
37
Mayotte, France
38 (±2.0%) 3.15 (±13.4%) 20.915 (±2.5%) 135.83 (±0.5%)
36
Guinea
38 (±3.1%) 1.34 (±15.3%) 23.287 (±3.6%) 135.48 (±0.9%)
35
Nepal
47 (±3.2%) fiterr (±err) 19.815 (±2.5%) 165.29 (±0.5%)
33
Madagascar
9692 (±308.6%) fiterr (±err) 61.260 (±27.5%) 357.04 (±30.3%)
30
Latvia
31 (±1.3%) 3.48 (±4.5%) 18.343 (±2.5%) 118.00 (±0.5%)
29
Uruguay
27 (±1.3%) 4.65 (±4.9%) 18.796 (±2.7%) 109.07 (±0.6%)
28
Slovakia
28 (±0.3%) 2.37 (±6.6%) 9.430 (±1.4%) 109.62 (±0.1%)
26
Singapore
26 (±0.5%) fiterr (±err) 16.970 (±1.3%) 107.04 (±0.3%)
25
Costa Rica
447 (±178.5%) 2.24 (±12.4%) 76.872 (±28.3%) 349.30 (±37.1%)
24
Isle of Man, United Kingdom
24 (±0.4%) 7.23 (±1.5%) 7.023 (±2.2%) 110.35 (±0.1%)
23
Benin
575 (±115.5%) 2.52 (±54.3%) 46.551 (±17.4%) 269.20 (±15.8%)
22
Victoria, Australia
19 (±0.7%) 1.44 (±14.3%) 11.093 (±3.1%) 94.07 (±0.5%)
20
Paraguay
27 (±20.3%) 3.25 (±11.5%) 39.395 (±14.3%) 136.57 (±11.7%)
19
Cyprus
18 (±0.9%) 2.17 (±5.7%) 15.426 (±3.1%) 91.79 (±0.7%)

Länder/Orte in dieser Liste müssen Bedingungen im Datensatz haben: Anzahl Verstorbener muß mindestens 13 betragen und weiterhin mindestens 7 subsequent steigende Zahlen vorliegen. Bei Erstaufnahme wird der Wendepunkt geraten, wobei die x über die Hälfte vom Maximalwert gesucht wird und den ersten darüber nimmt. Ist der Wendepunkt dann am letzten Wert, wird dieser Datensatz übersprungen.

Ausgelassene Länder/Orte können in dieser Liste gefunden werden.


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