Laboratory at the Elm – Covid-19

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People

with Advanced Gompertz Function



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All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Fri Aug 14 04:34:03 UTC 2020

Ncurrent Nmax (fit) cumulative location cases daily t2 (fit) dturning point (fit)
239663762654397 (±8.2%) India 62.428 (±1.2%) 339.54 (±1.2%)
498380875941 (±0.7%) Mexico 36.465 (±0.4%) 197.28 (±0.2%)
37816810111449 (±1461.1%) Chile 454.497 (±888.6%) -1748.10 (±-872.0%)
313798378722 (±3.4%) United Kingdom 59.918 (±2.6%) -255.92 (±-2.0%)
293037358307 (±0.9%) Saudi Arabia 28.776 (±0.8%) 165.30 (±0.3%)
2685742522935 (±3.5%) Argentina 51.303 (±0.7%) 285.43 (±0.6%)
266498324639 (±0.4%) Bangladesh 27.612 (±0.4%) 175.07 (±0.1%)
14374944267410 (±62.8%) Philippines 91.185 (±5.4%) 496.12 (±6.7%)
130718378519 (±2.6%) Indonesia 47.048 (±0.9%) 229.26 (±0.7%)
122703115201 (±0.4%) Canada, Canada 19.794 (±0.9%) 114.80 (±0.2%)
113938116281 (±0.2%) Qatar 21.207 (±0.4%) 143.40 (±0.1%)
95071201708 (±1.0%) Bolivia 36.307 (±0.5%) 211.29 (±0.2%)
8904584149 (±0.2%) China total, China total 5.985 (±1.5%) 37.16 (±0.4%)
8815147163312 (±238.3%) Israel 109.757 (±18.8%) 583.45 (±25.1%)
7564763859 (±0.6%) Belgium 15.384 (±1.9%) 99.55 (±0.4%)
7378581355 (±1.2%) Kuwait 27.717 (±1.2%) 159.39 (±0.4%)
6910269693 (±0.1%) Belarus 20.439 (±0.3%) 134.10 (±0.1%)
608131756 (±842.5%) Quebec, Canada 16.176 (±79.1%) 108.83 (±68.0%)
59089116526 (±3.1%) Guatemala 33.359 (±1.5%) 207.30 (±0.7%)
5322352316 (±1.6%) Portugal 26.835 (±2.5%) 117.31 (±1.0%)
51288713336 (±111.9%) Japan 86.643 (±18.7%) 386.71 (±24.7%)
4865776934 (±2.3%) Honduras 30.503 (±1.4%) 194.43 (±0.5%)
4774315243 (±4.5%) Nigeria 18.636 (±2.1%) 136.60 (±0.7%)
4526458048 (±0.6%) Bahrain 30.645 (±0.5%) 171.76 (±0.2%)
4223341146 (±0.4%) Ontario, Canada 21.776 (±0.9%) 119.71 (±0.2%)
41572113338 (±4.8%) Ghana 44.201 (±1.8%) 222.95 (±1.3%)
4079448531 (±0.8%) Armenia 26.391 (±0.8%) 168.02 (±0.2%)
3734538029 (±0.3%) Afghanistan 19.118 (±0.7%) 149.23 (±0.1%)
36699451390 (±30.1%) Algeria 69.980 (±5.5%) 332.54 (±6.3%)
366941310944574 (±457.0%) Morocco 149.554 (±20.6%) 861.13 (±29.2%)
3382448855 (±2.3%) Azerbaijan 30.026 (±1.7%) 182.61 (±0.6%)
290882710448 (±17.3%) Venezuela 69.644 (±1.9%) 391.40 (±2.0%)
2875162133 (±18.0%) Serbia 52.018 (±7.7%) 206.75 (±7.6%)
2869742574 (±2.1%) Moldova 37.676 (±1.3%) 180.10 (±0.7%)
2443222808 (±1.0%) Nepal 19.211 (±1.5%) 171.21 (±0.2%)
2243918236 (±0.9%) Austria 12.660 (±3.8%) 86.94 (±0.8%)
1907520554 (±5.7%) Czechia 37.831 (±5.3%) 135.62 (±3.5%)
18263434389 (±869.9%) Cameroon 417.138 (±526.6%) -1606.99 (±-515.4%)
1684723612 (±3.0%) Cote d'Ivoire 29.782 (±2.3%) 178.76 (±0.8%)
1586322164820058 (±897.2%) Victoria, Australia 128.237 (±28.2%) 800.55 (±39.4%)
149616020074 (±129.5%) Bosnia and Herzegovina 100.378 (±10.7%) 537.47 (±13.9%)
1477012396 (±0.9%) Korea - South 12.568 (±3.7%) 64.83 (±1.3%)
13893397176 (±37.9%) Bulgaria 75.938 (±5.5%) 377.87 (±6.4%)
1339737333 (±10.3%) Madagascar 33.145 (±3.9%) 222.94 (±1.8%)
12217239989 (±1250.3%) North Macedonia 419.459 (±757.9%) -1615.23 (±-742.3%)
1189310138 (±1.8%) Alberta, Canada 23.539 (±3.5%) 117.56 (±1.1%)
1158714342 (±1.2%) Senegal 32.182 (±1.0%) 168.17 (±0.4%)
10419171430 (±39.6%) Kosovo 59.981 (±6.8%) 318.60 (±6.7%)
9538658179 (±266.8%) Congo (Kinshasa) -580.851 (±-168.9%) 2224.82 (±166.9%)
91148750 (±0.5%) Malaysia 18.157 (±1.3%) 96.34 (±0.4%)
8501355026 (±123.0%) Zambia 63.058 (±15.8%) 353.69 (±16.1%)
84239005 (±0.8%) French Guiana, France 19.156 (±1.1%) 178.22 (±0.1%)
81168363 (±1.5%) Guinea 28.181 (±1.7%) 146.62 (±0.6%)
80182138725 (±73.2%) Paraguay 89.369 (±6.4%) 486.40 (±7.9%)
77437619 (±0.3%) Haiti 17.495 (±0.7%) 157.09 (±0.1%)
741335791205 (±379.1%) Lebanon 121.776 (±21.4%) 687.64 (±29.0%)
6817506058 (±45.1%) Albania 87.457 (±5.1%) 444.94 (±6.4%)
66226715 (±0.4%) Mauritania 17.197 (±0.7%) 169.47 (±0.1%)
66111536699 (±71.0%) Libya 66.676 (±6.4%) 398.39 (±6.7%)
61774752 (±3.6%) Greece 30.371 (±5.2%) 109.79 (±2.5%)
58702219 (±0.4%) Croatia 11.142 (±1.1%) 90.35 (±0.1%)
53669013 (±13.4%) Maldives 43.319 (±6.3%) 199.70 (±4.6%)
4893225605 (±67.5%) Zimbabwe 54.223 (±8.7%) 328.06 (±7.9%)
47528134 (±3.4%) Malawi 28.482 (±1.9%) 202.18 (±0.6%)
46524881 (±0.5%) Central African Republic 18.235 (±0.9%) 160.67 (±0.1%)
424356584 (±462.0%) Hong Kong, China 41.565 (±42.9%) 210.29 (±58.4%)
41154349 (±1.5%) Nicaragua 23.484 (±1.8%) 167.90 (±0.3%)
41112735 (±1.9%) British Columbia, Canada -23.703 (±-1.5%) 100.94 (±1.8%)
39273300 (±0.7%) New South Wales, Australia 9.093 (±4.2%) 85.74 (±0.6%)
3813508544 (±193.6%) Montenegro 72.069 (±19.9%) 404.13 (±22.2%)
374515227 (±16.2%) Congo (Brazzaville) 46.943 (±4.8%) 244.05 (±3.8%)
3525280014 (±1096.5%) Eswatini -813.904 (±-687.5%) 3114.05 (±680.5%)
34066661 (±3.4%) Namibia 25.902 (±1.5%) 216.10 (±0.4%)
33569661 (±10.4%) Thailand -49.423 (±-12.0%) 198.02 (±10.8%)
32273268 (±0.3%) Somalia 19.700 (±0.6%) 134.81 (±0.1%)
31282517 (±0.9%) Cuba 18.392 (±2.4%) 109.77 (±0.6%)
30913030 (±0.5%) Mayotte, France 21.394 (±0.9%) 134.46 (±0.2%)
30006954 (±3.9%) Cabo Verde 40.566 (±1.6%) 214.84 (±1.0%)
26902084 (±2.2%) Slovakia 23.221 (±4.6%) 104.88 (±1.6%)
265339545 (±17.9%) Suriname 51.025 (±3.0%) 298.14 (±2.6%)
25822759 (±0.6%) Mali 23.851 (±0.9%) 141.86 (±0.2%)
25597273 (±6.8%) Mozambique 43.439 (±2.3%) 231.26 (±1.6%)
24772345 (±0.8%) South Sudan 16.887 (±2.0%) 149.42 (±0.3%)
21898695 (±12.3%) Rwanda 50.091 (±3.7%) 244.75 (±3.2%)
21745817 (±8.9%) Estonia -46.010 (±-10.3%) 191.74 (±8.6%)
20881327 (±4.7%) Guinea-Bissau 10.590 (±4.2%) 127.00 (±0.4%)
1972278190 (±2314.5%) Iceland 207.598 (±265.9%) 920.72 (±412.2%)
19371954 (±0.5%) Sierra Leone 22.628 (±0.8%) 148.13 (±0.2%)
18411971 (±0.7%) Yemen 22.036 (±0.9%) 165.91 (±0.2%)
176248244411 (±127.0%) Angola 101.375 (±6.0%) 613.68 (±7.7%)
15891523 (±0.1%) New Zealand 8.021 (±1.0%) 89.68 (±0.1%)
14844026 (±28.8%) Saskatchewan, Canada 61.027 (±10.6%) 231.69 (±12.1%)
1477855357 (±178.0%) Gambia 46.256 (±13.8%) 335.65 (±11.2%)
13321330 (±1.5%) Uganda 24.010 (±2.0%) 156.05 (±0.4%)
12781142 (±1.2%) Georgia 24.750 (±2.2%) 117.25 (±0.7%)
12761195 (±27.3%) Henan, China -50.938 (±-3101.3%) -532.65 (±-2481.6%)
12751256 (±0.1%) Zhejiang, China 4.514 (±1.3%) 30.79 (±0.3%)
12521802 (±3.5%) Liberia 32.401 (±2.5%) 175.25 (±1.1%)
1190786 (±2.2%) Malta 23.185 (±4.8%) 103.19 (±1.7%)
10921124 (±1.7%) Togo 28.848 (±3.3%) -290.69 (±-0.7%)
10891062 (±0.1%) Queensland, Australia 7.847 (±1.0%) 84.01 (±0.1%)
10711068 (±0.2%) Nova Scotia, Canada 11.427 (±0.7%) 100.29 (±0.1%)
10661585 (±7.9%) Botswana 26.035 (±4.6%) 204.04 (±1.2%)
1065882 (±2.0%) Jamaica 24.116 (±3.5%) 122.44 (±1.0%)
103653540370 (±942.3%) Bahamas 86.105 (±40.8%) 547.15 (±50.1%)
10191001 (±0.5%) Hunan, China -4.531 (±-1.1%) 31.43 (±0.6%)
991992 (±0.1%) Anhui, China 4.599 (±0.5%) 33.03 (±0.1%)
977849 (±0.6%) Andorra 11.797 (±2.7%) 89.49 (±0.5%)
948972 (±1.1%) Heilongjiang, China 20.499 (±3.4%) 56.14 (±2.5%)
937936 (±0.1%) Jiangxi, China 4.440 (±0.5%) 32.90 (±0.1%)
9351125 (±5.8%) Beijing, China 43.733 (±7.2%) 75.46 (±10.1%)
88321573025 (±1476.8%) Vietnam 202.099 (±69.9%) 1125.15 (±102.6%)
88390659 (±301.6%) Xinjiang, China 48.952 (±33.0%) 324.53 (±27.4%)
882846 (±1.2%) Sao Tome and Principe 19.007 (±2.6%) 142.60 (±0.4%)
821789 (±0.2%) Shandong, China 7.088 (±1.4%) 35.66 (±0.5%)
800732 (±0.8%) Shanghai, China 21.569 (±2.3%) 51.02 (±2.1%)
79825580912 (±3817.2%) Aruba, Netherlands 171.269 (±160.9%) 987.52 (±232.0%)
7981076 (±4.5%) Lesotho 18.751 (±3.6%) 203.61 (±0.5%)
734597 (±1.8%) Reunion, France 21.397 (±5.1%) 92.84 (±1.8%)
699703 (±0.2%) San Marino 16.127 (±0.8%) 92.75 (±0.2%)
670604 (±0.5%) Western Australia, Australia 9.544 (±2.8%) 86.09 (±0.4%)
659650 (±0.1%) Jiangsu, China 5.043 (±0.8%) 33.19 (±0.2%)
623160023 (±146.1%) Guyana 109.787 (±13.0%) 566.33 (±17.4%)
6031540122 (±4876.5%) Channel Islands, United Kingdom 258.251 (±341.3%) 1306.99 (±512.2%)
583580 (±0.1%) Chongqing, China 4.944 (±0.5%) 30.79 (±0.1%)
578354 (±1.9%) Manitoba, Canada 16.209 (±6.7%) 93.36 (±1.7%)
459443 (±0.1%) South Australia, Australia 6.626 (±1.0%) 83.94 (±0.1%)
409778 (±7.3%) Burundi 33.747 (±3.8%) 200.02 (±1.7%)
399401 (±1.2%) Comoros 20.464 (±2.0%) 159.58 (±0.3%)
368308 (±0.7%) Fujian, China 5.013 (±3.4%) 30.67 (±0.9%)
3679551585 (±3595.0%) Guadeloupe, France 273.153 (±174.2%) 1498.08 (±259.9%)
361368 (±1.4%) Burma 25.488 (±2.4%) 124.00 (±0.7%)
351333 (±0.3%) Hebei, China 5.745 (±2.0%) 34.46 (±0.6%)
336335 (±0.1%) Isle of Man, United Kingdom 9.009 (±0.8%) 95.26 (±0.1%)
336267 (±2.0%) Martinique, France 23.789 (±4.9%) 94.37 (±1.8%)
29787 (±28.2%) Mongolia 20.603 (±12.8%) 111.78 (±7.3%)
2872016702 (±422.1%) Papua New Guinea 56.860 (±22.6%) 397.09 (±22.3%)
285340 (±4.9%) Eritrea 24.171 (±5.5%) 170.13 (±1.1%)
261126 (±0.5%) Liaoning, China 4.818 (±2.1%) 30.11 (±0.5%)
259194 (±1.3%) Inner Mongolia, China -28.093 (±-1.0%) -0.54 (±-10307.2%)
255254 (±0.0%) Guangxi, China 5.278 (±0.4%) 31.45 (±0.1%)
2486288 (±615.3%) Sint Maarten, Netherlands 125.740 (±85.4%) 553.35 (±124.5%)
24167026 (±268.2%) Turks and Caicos Islands, United Kingdom 74.826 (±22.8%) 433.57 (±25.8%)
230230 (±0.3%) Tasmania, Australia 11.005 (±1.3%) 94.07 (±0.2%)
2108884 (±425.9%) Belize 62.631 (±49.1%) 362.34 (±49.7%)
205198 (±0.6%) Tianjin, China 20.990 (±1.5%) -81.92 (±-2.5%)
191466 (±462.3%) Yunnan, China 262.312 (±319.8%) -40.07 (±-104620.1%)
178163 (±1.4%) New Brunswick, Canada 18.801 (±4.5%) 91.32 (±1.4%)
169151 (±0.8%) Gansu, China 12.931 (±3.7%) 38.21 (±2.8%)
159149 (±0.5%) Bermuda, United Kingdom 15.473 (±1.7%) 101.55 (±0.4%)
15793 (±0.5%) Jilin, China 4.142 (±2.0%) 33.81 (±0.3%)
147147 (±0.1%) Guizhou, China 4.472 (±1.1%) 34.71 (±0.2%)
144106 (±1.5%) Barbados 17.472 (±5.2%) 92.10 (±1.5%)
142140 (±0.2%) Brunei 7.192 (±1.1%) 76.32 (±0.1%)
13963 (±1.4%) French Polynesia, France 10.451 (±7.2%) 85.41 (±1.2%)
113112 (±1.6%) Bhutan 24.118 (±2.3%) 153.82 (±0.5%)
113109 (±0.3%) Australian Capital Territory, Australia 6.633 (±1.9%) 84.55 (±0.2%)
92571 (±61.8%) Antigua and Barbuda 66.925 (±15.5%) 286.82 (±18.1%)
7575 (±0.6%) Ningxia, China 5.638 (±1.9%) 33.45 (±0.5%)
57218 (±36.0%) Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 62.752 (±11.2%) 254.54 (±12.7%)
4647 (±0.9%) Macau, China 14.564 (±3.5%) 69.22 (±1.3%)
4130 (±1.2%) Prince Edward Island, Canada 8.686 (±7.2%) 87.67 (±0.9%)
3330 (±0.4%) Northern Territory, Australia 7.136 (±3.1%) 86.42 (±0.3%)
3216 (±1.2%) Curacao, Netherlands 9.179 (±3.2%) 84.39 (±0.4%)
2727 (±5.2%) Fiji 31.757 (±10.1%) 92.07 (±4.4%)
2521 (±1.4%) Saint Lucia 17.016 (±5.0%) 89.69 (±1.4%)
23452 (±1280.2%) New Caledonia, France 201.638 (±247.4%) 731.48 (±425.3%)


For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted. The order of countries is by having its first case.
.·. Impressum