what is the trend of the Covid-19 outbreak in Europe?
Covid-19 in Europe
In Europe the number of infections is now crossing the 1.2 million cases limit, which is about 13 times more than those of China. The cumulative number of cases is about 3% over the expected curve. It is a trend in some countries to have numbers above the expected curve.
Around June 25 it is to be expected that the number of new infections per day will drop below 100 cases for the entire Europe. Distributed over the countries in Europe, contact backtracing should not be a problem anymore, so that it can be expected the return to the normal life as before.
The death rate is higher than we know from China and the high value is mainly guided by the countries Italy, Spain, France, and United Kingdom. The average delay time between the death and infected curve is about -5.7 days, rather similar as in China. However, the case fatality rate is about 3 times higher. The difference of Europe to Germany is the delay time, which is about -14 days for Germany and a case fatality rate of about 5.5%. The reason, why Germany had this very small case fatality rates in the beginning of the crisis was the very huge delay time, which means that seriously ill people have been kept alive much longer before they died.
Graphic will be updated.