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Covid-19 in China

Covid-19 analysis and forecast.

Jens Röder

2 minutes read

How was and what is the current trend of the Covid-19 in China ?

Covid-19 in China

In China we can see the complete path an epidemic takes: Fast rise in the begining, slowing down to a liniar phase and then the long running out reaching the maximum of infected, dead, and recovered asymptotically. Important to note is the time delay between the three different curves, that is important to understand the case fatality rate. From these data we can read, that by around 5.54 days delay the death curve follows. We need to considere this in correcting the simple death rate calculations with an advanced method. Primitively speaking, we need to take the numbers of infected from 5-6 days before and calculate them with the dead of today to obtain a corrected approach. A complete table can be seen here:

We can also obtain the average recovery time by about 19 days. The doubling time in the beginning was 3.2 days, which is rather a fast growth. These were the first basic parameters from where we can create predictions for other countries.

Quite interesting now is to see a relapse of the epidemic in some areas of China, which is a result of easying the restrictions and the travel coming now from outside, when not quarantined or tested. In these cases one can see a second rise coming up on the reached plateau. See below.

Relapse of the epidemic in China

Graphic will be updated.

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