Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 500 , between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 9999, between 10000 and 49999, between 50000 and 99999, above 100000.
The color code on locations describes percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The color code on turning, that is: More than 20 days passed, more than 10 days passed, more than 5 days passed, ahead 5 days, ahead 10 days, more than 10 days ahead.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
If you like to support my work:
(by click on image you accept third party cookies, required by paypal)
For old broad desktop overview, follow this link.
Actualisation date: Mon Oct 19 04:30:23 UTC 2020
Click on the down arrow to open content and click on image to enlarge.
Clicking on the name will direct to a page with all images for the country.
Clicking on the name will direct to a page with all images for the country.
| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_inf. | infected_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 7494551 India | 14119118 (±1.1%) |  |  | 45.789 (±0.5%) | 261.74 (±0.3%) |
| 5224362 Brazil | 5980111 (±0.2%) |  |  | 37.226 (±0.2%) | 202.42 (±0.1%) |
| 1376020 Russia | 1291367 (±1.4%) |  |  | 36.715 (±2.0%) | 165.89 (±0.7%) |
| 979119 Argentina | 2585447 (±0.8%) |  |  | 52.679 (±0.3%) | 289.45 (±0.2%) |
| 952371 Colombia | 1142732 (±0.8%) |  |  | 35.213 (±0.7%) | 224.97 (±0.2%) |
| 862417 Peru | 1158392 (±1.8%) |  |  | 45.505 (±1.4%) | 210.19 (±0.7%) |
| 847108 Mexico | 967743 (±0.6%) |  |  | 39.089 (±0.5%) | 203.63 (±0.2%) |
| 843475 France | 185231 (±0.4%) |  |  | 11.570 (±1.2%) | 94.38 (±0.2%) |
| 705428 United Kingdom | 289608 (±0.2%) |  |  | 17.447 (±0.6%) | 106.59 (±0.1%) |
| 702131 South Africa | 692111 (±0.3%) |  |  | 22.690 (±0.8%) | 190.39 (±0.1%) |
| 526490 Iran | 596560 (±1.6%) |  |  | 47.338 (±1.4%) | 181.38 (±0.9%) |
| 490003 Chile | 461185 (±0.6%) |  |  | 27.655 (±1.2%) | 162.31 (±0.3%) |
| 423524 Iraq | 666887 (±0.9%) |  |  | 43.943 (±0.6%) | 245.87 (±0.3%) |
| 402536 Italy | 238124 (±0.2%) |  |  | 14.122 (±0.6%) | 88.54 (±0.1%) |
| 387295 Bangladesh | 400165 (±0.4%) |  |  | 32.675 (±0.6%) | 185.16 (±0.1%) |
| 364664 Germany | 183324 (±0.3%) |  |  | 12.133 (±1.0%) | 90.51 (±0.2%) |
| 357762 Indonesia | 1357503 (±4.2%) |  |  | 67.923 (±1.2%) | 321.81 (±1.1%) |
| 354338 Philippines | 502417 (±1.9%) |  |  | 40.055 (±1.3%) | 236.45 (±0.5%) |
| 345678 Turkey | 171535 (±0.6%) |  |  | 14.184 (±1.3%) | 105.25 (±0.2%) |
| 341854 Saudi Arabia | 344470 (±0.2%) |  |  | 27.901 (±0.4%) | 163.48 (±0.1%) |
| 323019 Pakistan | 310686 (±0.3%) |  |  | 22.603 (±0.8%) | 158.74 (±0.2%) |
| 302770 Israel | 16815 (±0.3%) |  |  | 10.672 (±0.7%) | 92.80 (±0.1%) |
| 301856 Ukraine | 17822151 (±28.9%) |  |  | 110.457 (±3.4%) | 559.47 (±4.2%) |
| 220052 Netherlands | 49020 (±0.3%) |  |  | 14.381 (±1.0%) | 96.59 (±0.2%) |
| 213115 Belgium | 60087 (±0.2%) |  |  | 13.680 (±0.6%) | 98.17 (±0.1%) |
| 197067 Canada, Canada | 107302 (±0.2%) |  |  | 17.896 (±0.4%) | 112.45 (±0.1%) |
| 170911 Morocco | 8802 (±0.5%) |  |  | 16.513 (±0.7%) | 112.69 (±0.1%) |
| 168827 Czechia | 8659 (±0.6%) |  |  | 12.056 (±1.5%) | 91.01 (±0.2%) |
| 167230 Poland | 40266 (±1.9%) |  |  | 24.996 (±1.7%) | 127.89 (±0.7%) |
| 152422 Ecuador | 183176 (±2.0%) |  |  | 46.447 (±1.7%) | 192.15 (±1.0%) |
| 139710 Bolivia | 151664 (±0.3%) |  |  | 30.904 (±0.4%) | 197.59 (±0.1%) |
| 129304 Nepal | 21811 (±1.9%) |  |  | 17.713 (±1.8%) | 170.05 (±0.2%) |
| 129227 Qatar | 122852 (±0.3%) |  |  | 23.109 (±0.7%) | 145.29 (±0.2%) |
| 124107 Panama | 142058 (±0.6%) |  |  | 38.248 (±0.6%) | 200.77 (±0.2%) |
| 115483 Kuwait | 122539 (±1.1%) |  |  | 38.520 (±1.3%) | 183.71 (±0.5%) |
| 114387 United Arab Emirates | 111611 (±2.6%) |  |  | 42.767 (±2.6%) | 176.58 (±1.4%) |
| 109406 Kazakhstan | 110073 (±0.6%) |  |  | 20.201 (±1.6%) | 183.94 (±0.2%) |
| 108296 Oman | 100461 (±0.6%) |  |  | 26.289 (±1.3%) | 177.51 (±0.2%) |
| 105297 Egypt | 103393 (±0.2%) |  |  | 22.543 (±0.6%) | 160.19 (±0.1%) |
| 103200 Sweden | 63443 (±2.5%) |  |  | 24.491 (±1.9%) | 125.58 (±0.8%) |
| 101028 Guatemala | 108335 (±0.4%) |  |  | 32.993 (±0.5%) | 204.69 (±0.1%) |
| 98055 Portugal | 98767 (±4.5%) |  |  | 50.823 (±4.0%) | 172.29 (±3.0%) |
| 95514 Costa Rica | 185011 (±1.3%) |  |  | 44.769 (±0.6%) | 267.63 (±0.3%) |
| 92670 Japan | 16983 (±0.4%) |  |  | 12.055 (±1.1%) | 100.33 (±0.2%) |
| 91018 Quebec, Canada | 6273 (±1155.0%) |  |  | 18.173 (±87.6%) | 120.30 (±83.4%) |
| 90955 China total, China total | 85891 (±0.2%) |  |  | 6.221 (±2.1%) | 37.35 (±0.6%) |
| 88434 Ethiopia | 107975 (±1.6%) |  |  | 32.402 (±1.5%) | 235.15 (±0.3%) |
| 87594 Honduras | 96390 (±0.9%) |  |  | 36.299 (±0.9%) | 206.45 (±0.3%) |
| 87063 Belarus | 75387 (±0.5%) |  |  | 23.264 (±1.4%) | 137.00 (±0.3%) |
| 86289 Venezuela | 122169 (±1.0%) |  |  | 37.577 (±0.7%) | 241.76 (±0.2%) |
| 77571 Bahrain | 92220 (±1.6%) |  |  | 42.667 (±1.4%) | 201.30 (±0.7%) |
| 74422 Switzerland | 331379119 (±1420.1%) |  |  | 287.015 (±85.5%) | 1512.31 (±126.6%) |
| 68139 Hubei, China | 68113 (±0.1%) |  |  | 5.537 (±1.0%) | 37.92 (±0.2%) |
| 66652 Moldova | 160979 (±5.3%) |  |  | 64.536 (±2.0%) | 283.41 (±1.8%) |
| 65869 Ontario, Canada | 51433 (±1.2%) |  |  | 30.656 (±2.4%) | 132.34 (±1.0%) |
| 63134 Austria | 16147 (±0.4%) |  |  | 9.354 (±1.4%) | 85.10 (±0.2%) |
| 63000 Armenia | 53655 (±0.9%) |  |  | 30.416 (±1.6%) | 172.92 (±0.4%) |
| 62809 Uzbekistan | 79252 (±1.4%) |  |  | 38.367 (±1.2%) | 222.14 (±0.4%) |
| 61307 Nigeria | 15242 (±4.5%) |  |  | 18.635 (±2.1%) | 136.59 (±0.7%) |
| 61284 Lebanon | 2150 (±5.4%) |  |  | 30.089 (±4.2%) | 124.08 (±2.6%) |
| 57904 Singapore | 56941 (±0.4%) |  |  | 24.877 (±1.1%) | 131.73 (±0.3%) |
| 54203 Algeria | 14382 (±1.4%) |  |  | 22.825 (±1.1%) | 127.96 (±0.4%) |
| 54015 Paraguay | 132399 (±4.4%) |  |  | 44.472 (±1.8%) | 283.47 (±0.8%) |
| 51490 Kyrgyzstan | 3835 (±8.8%) |  |  | 28.089 (±4.2%) | 143.30 (±2.6%) |
| 48678 Ireland | 25423 (±0.2%) |  |  | 12.404 (±0.6%) | 101.93 (±0.1%) |
| 47845 Libya | 108488 (±2.2%) |  |  | 42.019 (±0.9%) | 280.89 (±0.4%) |
| 47232 Ghana | 50187 (±0.8%) |  |  | 29.056 (±1.3%) | 178.68 (±0.3%) |
| 46746 West Bank and Gaza | 78775 (±2.5%) |  |  | 42.934 (±1.4%) | 253.86 (±0.6%) |
| 44816 Hungary | 4107 (±0.3%) |  |  | 15.160 (±0.6%) | 105.32 (±0.1%) |
| 44317 Azerbaijan | 41843 (±0.5%) |  |  | 27.312 (±0.9%) | 176.19 (±0.2%) |
| 44196 Kenya | 43168 (±0.8%) |  |  | 27.633 (±1.2%) | 202.88 (±0.2%) |
| 40542 Tunisia | 1062 (±0.3%) |  |  | 10.970 (±1.0%) | 91.85 (±0.1%) |
| 40141 Afghanistan | 38817 (±0.2%) |  |  | 19.813 (±0.6%) | 149.74 (±0.1%) |
| 36053 Jordan | 1533 (±3.7%) |  |  | 31.825 (±3.3%) | 131.00 (±1.9%) |
| 35946 Serbia | 11564 (±0.3%) |  |  | 12.672 (±0.8%) | 104.05 (±0.1%) |
| 34941 Denmark | 12338 (±0.4%) |  |  | 15.809 (±0.8%) | 97.48 (±0.2%) |
| 34875 Burma | 161266 (±7.8%) |  |  | 32.754 (±2.1%) | 304.45 (±0.7%) |
| 33561 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 52248 (±2.7%) |  |  | 47.759 (±1.6%) | 242.85 (±0.9%) |
| 31456 El Salvador | 32452 (±0.8%) |  |  | 29.740 (±1.1%) | 197.89 (±0.2%) |
| 29108 Bulgaria | 37349 (±3.7%) |  |  | 48.365 (±2.3%) | 230.28 (±1.3%) |
| 28268 Slovakia | 1551 (±0.7%) |  |  | 12.263 (±1.8%) | 96.17 (±0.3%) |
| 25199 Korea - South | 10450 (±0.6%) |  |  | 8.044 (±2.3%) | 61.61 (±0.4%) |
| 24932 Greece | 2839 (±0.4%) |  |  | 12.224 (±1.0%) | 87.60 (±0.2%) |
| 24761 Croatia | 2219 (±0.4%) |  |  | 11.142 (±1.1%) | 90.35 (±0.1%) |
| 23201 North Macedonia | 1787 (±0.8%) |  |  | 12.882 (±1.2%) | 98.81 (±0.2%) |
| 21775 Alberta, Canada | 7442 (±1.4%) |  |  | 13.650 (±2.3%) | 107.84 (±0.3%) |
| 21441 Cameroon | 21110 (±0.3%) |  |  | 27.500 (±0.7%) | 158.63 (±0.2%) |
| 20319 Victoria, Australia | 1547 (±0.9%) |  |  | 10.141 (±3.2%) | 86.38 (±0.5%) |
| 20301 Cote d’Ivoire | 20206 (±0.5%) |  |  | 26.603 (±1.0%) | 172.31 (±0.2%) |
| 19627 Malaysia | 10756 (±1.8%) |  |  | 27.450 (±4.3%) | 107.48 (±2.1%) |
| 16810 Madagascar | 16713 (±0.5%) |  |  | 21.472 (±1.2%) | 196.81 (±0.1%) |
| 16774 Albania | 32640 (±2.1%) |  |  | 53.417 (±1.0%) | 262.16 (±0.6%) |
| 16606 Kosovo | 17653 (±0.9%) |  |  | 29.672 (±1.3%) | 202.56 (±0.2%) |
| 16369 Norway | 8478 (±0.3%) |  |  | 12.172 (±1.1%) | 84.90 (±0.2%) |
| 16285 Georgia | 1651309489 (±626.8%) |  |  | 109.927 (±25.0%) | 709.82 (±30.7%) |
| 15789 Zambia | 1624 (±1.8%) |  |  | 16.149 (±2.9%) | 137.51 (±0.4%) |
| 15427 Montenegro | 325 (±0.3%) |  |  | 8.297 (±1.3%) | 90.42 (±0.1%) |
| 15392 Senegal | 16800 (±0.4%) |  |  | 35.242 (±0.6%) | 176.98 (±0.2%) |
| 13691 Sudan | 13479 (±0.3%) |  |  | 24.040 (±0.9%) | 153.75 (±0.2%) |
| 13293 Finland | 7263 (±0.1%) |  |  | 16.216 (±0.3%) | 101.49 (±0.1%) |
| 12416 Slovenia | 1477 (±0.2%) |  |  | 11.085 (±0.5%) | 84.89 (±0.1%) |
| 12263 Namibia | 13842 (±0.9%) |  |  | 26.983 (±1.1%) | 231.50 (±0.2%) |
| 11478 Guinea | 11943 (±1.0%) |  |  | 37.716 (±1.3%) | 168.90 (±0.5%) |
| 11189 British Columbia, Canada | 2630 (±0.7%) |  |  | 15.149 (±1.4%) | 93.32 (±0.3%) |
| 11178 Maldives | 20164 (±4.9%) |  |  | 51.134 (±2.6%) | 244.79 (±1.7%) |
| 11000 Congo (Kinshasa) | 10683 (±0.2%) |  |  | 25.082 (±0.5%) | 158.74 (±0.1%) |
| 10707 Mozambique | 127075 (±16.4%) |  |  | 74.988 (±3.1%) | 393.11 (±3.0%) |
| 10471 Luxembourg | 3927 (±0.3%) |  |  | 9.539 (±1.1%) | 86.45 (±0.2%) |
| 10455 Uganda | 101590588 (±235.8%) |  |  | 136.723 (±12.6%) | 800.59 (±16.4%) |
| 10455 Tajikistan | 9700 (±1.1%) |  |  | 29.146 (±2.4%) | 156.66 (±0.6%) |
| 10243 French Guiana, France | 9869 (±0.3%) |  |  | 21.929 (±0.8%) | 180.59 (±0.1%) |
| 8956 Haiti | 8480 (±0.4%) |  |  | 20.981 (±1.2%) | 159.92 (±0.2%) |
| 8881 Gabon | 8976 (±0.3%) |  |  | 26.421 (±0.6%) | 161.16 (±0.1%) |
| 8195 Jamaica | 570 (±1.3%) |  |  | 11.203 (±2.8%) | 110.43 (±0.3%) |
| 7638 Cabo Verde | 16814 (±3.6%) |  |  | 57.028 (±1.5%) | 275.31 (±1.1%) |
| 7607 Mauritania | 7312 (±0.3%) |  |  | 19.790 (±0.9%) | 171.39 (±0.1%) |
| 7462 Angola | 40229 (±9.2%) |  |  | 63.331 (±2.2%) | 342.01 (±1.8%) |
| 7269 Lithuania | 1660 (±0.7%) |  |  | 12.576 (±2.0%) | 93.15 (±0.4%) |
| 7122 Guadeloupe, France | 158 (±0.5%) |  |  | 8.325 (±2.5%) | 82.82 (±0.3%) |
| 6170 Cuba | 2339 (±0.5%) |  |  | 16.067 (±1.4%) | 107.58 (±0.3%) |
| 5852 Malawi | 5969 (±0.4%) |  |  | 22.445 (±0.9%) | 191.86 (±0.1%) |
| 5765 Eswatini | 6271 (±0.7%) |  |  | 29.689 (±1.0%) | 207.22 (±0.2%) |
| 5628 Bahamas | 9238 (±3.4%) |  |  | 38.910 (±1.8%) | 263.16 (±0.7%) |
| 5475 Sri Lanka | 4151 (±2.5%) |  |  | 37.768 (±3.2%) | 161.09 (±1.4%) |
| 5452 Djibouti | 1136 (±1.2%) |  |  | 6.885 (±3.0%) | 104.92 (±0.2%) |
| 5353 Nicaragua | 5314 (±0.6%) |  |  | 28.751 (±1.1%) | 176.33 (±0.2%) |
| 5281 Trinidad and Tobago | 116 (±0.4%) |  |  | 7.201 (±2.1%) | 82.76 (±0.2%) |
| 5242 Botswana | 10172 (±12.5%) |  |  | 50.938 (±4.7%) | 285.86 (±2.9%) |
| 5156 Congo (Brazzaville) | 5651 (±1.1%) |  |  | 31.644 (±1.5%) | 192.76 (±0.4%) |
| 5123 Suriname | 5504 (±0.8%) |  |  | 26.472 (±1.2%) | 214.77 (±0.2%) |
| 5070 Equatorial Guinea | 5426 (±1.2%) |  |  | 28.892 (±2.3%) | 172.58 (±0.5%) |
| 5033 Syria | 6101 (±1.8%) |  |  | 32.143 (±1.6%) | 237.21 (±0.4%) |
| 4971 Rwanda | 6893 (±3.3%) |  |  | 39.626 (±2.7%) | 221.35 (±1.0%) |
| 4855 Central African Republic | 4800 (±0.2%) |  |  | 17.833 (±0.6%) | 160.29 (±0.1%) |
| 4776 Reunion, France | 435 (±0.5%) |  |  | 8.012 (±1.9%) | 87.03 (±0.2%) |
| 4486 Malta | 660 (±0.7%) |  |  | 16.751 (±1.9%) | 96.56 (±0.5%) |
| 4338 New South Wales, Australia | 3060 (±0.2%) |  |  | 7.622 (±1.0%) | 85.14 (±0.1%) |
| 4304 Aruba, Netherlands | 104 (±0.5%) |  |  | 8.672 (±2.6%) | 88.43 (±0.3%) |
| 4052 Estonia | 1936 (±0.4%) |  |  | 13.239 (±1.4%) | 89.96 (±0.3%) |
| 4030 Mayotte, France | 3589 (±0.8%) |  |  | 27.728 (±1.7%) | 141.93 (±0.5%) |
| 3998 Iceland | 1818 (±0.1%) |  |  | 8.752 (±0.8%) | 83.73 (±0.1%) |
| 3864 Somalia | 3448 (±0.4%) |  |  | 21.570 (±1.3%) | 136.61 (±0.3%) |
| 3797 French Polynesia, France | 61 (±0.3%) |  |  | 9.689 (±1.4%) | 84.94 (±0.2%) |
| 3710 Guyana | 440758621 (±285.5%) |  |  | 162.489 (±11.5%) | 975.67 (±15.8%) |
| 3686 Thailand | 3297 (±0.4%) |  |  | 11.421 (±2.2%) | 87.82 (±0.4%) |
| 3392 Latvia | 16055 (±114.3%) |  |  | 119.927 (±27.5%) | 448.92 (±40.6%) |
| 3379 Mali | 3063 (±0.6%) |  |  | 27.662 (±1.4%) | 146.68 (±0.4%) |
| 3377 Andorra | 805 (±0.6%) |  |  | 10.434 (±2.2%) | 88.66 (±0.3%) |
| 3173 Manitoba, Canada | 297 (±0.6%) |  |  | 9.098 (±2.6%) | 90.60 (±0.3%) |
| 2817 South Sudan | 2459 (±5.2%) |  |  | 16.708 (±4.6%) | 150.30 (±0.7%) |
| 2775 Belize | 3495 (±2.8%) |  |  | 30.177 (±2.1%) | 253.46 (±0.4%) |
| 2581 Cyprus | 963 (±0.3%) |  |  | 11.760 (±1.2%) | 93.13 (±0.2%) |
| 2501 Uruguay | 6849 (±15.1%) |  |  | 85.079 (±5.6%) | 301.99 (±7.1%) |
| 2496 Benin | 2417 (±0.7%) |  |  | 25.949 (±1.5%) | 176.91 (±0.3%) |
| 2389 Guinea-Bissau | 1327 (±4.7%) |  |  | 10.589 (±4.2%) | 127.00 (±0.4%) |
| 2343 Burkina Faso | 18262 (±64.2%) |  |  | 115.288 (±14.5%) | 452.43 (±20.5%) |
| 2327 Sierra Leone | 2195 (±0.5%) |  |  | 26.464 (±1.1%) | 153.07 (±0.3%) |
| 2270 Saskatchewan, Canada | 3040 (±4.0%) |  |  | 54.156 (±2.8%) | 203.62 (±2.2%) |
| 2257 Martinique, France | 191 (±0.7%) |  |  | 10.034 (±2.7%) | 85.41 (±0.4%) |
| 2055 Yemen | 2226 (±7.5%) |  |  | 23.085 (±3.6%) | 168.94 (±1.2%) |
| 2049 Togo | 811 (±2.6%) |  |  | 23.770 (±2.6%) | 139.63 (±0.8%) |
| 1886 New Zealand | 1515 (±0.1%) |  |  | 7.948 (±0.8%) | 89.65 (±0.1%) |
| 1881 Guangdong, China | 1352 (±0.1%) |  |  | 4.551 (±0.5%) | 31.50 (±0.1%) |
| 1833 Lesotho | 2089 (±2.3%) |  |  | 32.419 (±2.4%) | 225.43 (±0.5%) |
| 1377 Liberia | 1397 (±0.6%) |  |  | 26.336 (±1.3%) | 163.38 (±0.3%) |
| 1365 Chad | 880 (±0.4%) |  |  | 12.115 (±1.1%) | 131.57 (±0.1%) |
| 1283 Zhejiang, China | 1263 (±0.1%) |  |  | 4.563 (±1.2%) | 30.82 (±0.3%) |
| 1281 Henan, China | 1277 (±0.0%) |  |  | 4.592 (±0.3%) | 32.44 (±0.1%) |
| 1209 Niger | 1145 (±0.5%) |  |  | 18.203 (±2.2%) | 105.14 (±0.6%) |
| 1164 Queensland, Australia | 1090 (±0.3%) |  |  | 8.391 (±2.3%) | 84.14 (±0.3%) |
| 1126 Vietnam | 2056 (±9.6%) |  |  | 59.300 (±5.3%) | 225.45 (±4.8%) |
| 1093 Nova Scotia, Canada | 1075 (±0.1%) |  |  | 11.567 (±0.7%) | 100.38 (±0.1%) |
| 1085 Shanghai, China | 338 (±0.2%) |  |  | 4.515 (±0.7%) | 30.37 (±0.2%) |
| 1019 Hunan, China | 1019 (±0.0%) |  |  | 4.483 (±0.3%) | 31.67 (±0.1%) |
| 991 Anhui, China | 992 (±0.0%) |  |  | 4.597 (±0.5%) | 33.03 (±0.1%) |
| 948 Heilongjiang, China | 484 (±0.2%) |  |  | 4.826 (±1.0%) | 35.45 (±0.2%) |
| 937 Jiangxi, China | 935 (±0.0%) |  |  | 4.438 (±0.5%) | 32.90 (±0.1%) |
| 937 Beijing, China | 414 (±0.4%) |  |  | 5.381 (±1.1%) | 31.17 (±0.3%) |
| 932 Sao Tome and Principe | 900 (±0.5%) |  |  | 20.975 (±1.6%) | 144.50 (±0.3%) |
| 902 Xinjiang, China | 76 (±0.2%) |  |  | 5.316 (±1.2%) | 34.59 (±0.3%) |
| 845 Shandong, China | 801 (±0.2%) |  |  | 7.292 (±1.6%) | 35.88 (±0.6%) |
| 759 San Marino | 713 (±0.2%) |  |  | 16.495 (±0.8%) | 93.13 (±0.2%) |
| 749 Sint Maarten, Netherlands | 77 (±0.3%) |  |  | 8.815 (±1.3%) | 96.14 (±0.1%) |
| 748 Channel Islands, United Kingdom | 604 (±0.5%) |  |  | 11.026 (±3.3%) | 93.67 (±0.5%) |
| 725 Sichuan, China | 601 (±0.5%) |  |  | 6.896 (±4.3%) | 33.49 (±1.6%) |
| 715 Curacao, Netherlands | 16 (±1.2%) |  |  | 9.179 (±3.2%) | 84.39 (±0.4%) |
| 712 Diamond Princess | 712 (±0.1%) |  |  | 4.270 (±1.4%) | 44.74 (±0.2%) |
| 711 Western Australia, Australia | 630 (±0.5%) |  |  | 10.742 (±3.0%) | 86.61 (±0.5%) |
| 698 Turks and Caicos Islands, United Kingdom | 251076 (±4340.0%) |  |  | 150.600 (±239.7%) | 821.06 (±345.9%) |
| 669 Jiangsu, China | 654 (±0.1%) |  |  | 5.101 (±1.0%) | 33.24 (±0.2%) |
| 586 Chongqing, China | 581 (±0.0%) |  |  | 4.961 (±0.4%) | 30.81 (±0.1%) |
| 558 Gibraltar, United Kingdom | 598784 (±515.2%) |  |  | 212.455 (±37.0%) | 1094.67 (±53.5%) |
| 536 Burundi | 523 (±0.8%) |  |  | 27.233 (±1.5%) | 183.25 (±0.3%) |
| 535 Taiwan | 471 (±0.4%) |  |  | 11.692 (±2.5%) | 81.37 (±0.5%) |
| 531 St Martin, France | 40 (±0.5%) |  |  | 9.656 (±2.3%) | 88.79 (±0.3%) |
| 509 Tanzania | 532 (±1.9%) |  |  | 8.933 (±4.2%) | 110.47 (±0.3%) |
| 502 Comoros | 477 (±0.7%) |  |  | 25.948 (±1.6%) | 165.87 (±0.3%) |
| 483 Faroe Islands, Denmark | 187 (±0.1%) |  |  | 6.277 (±0.9%) | 79.23 (±0.1%) |
| 482 South Australia, Australia | 451 (±0.2%) |  |  | 6.894 (±1.7%) | 84.05 (±0.2%) |
| 452 Eritrea | 39 (±0.4%) |  |  | 6.889 (±2.0%) | 90.44 (±0.2%) |
| 436 Shaanxi, China | 945723 (±2371.3%) |  |  | 405.466 (±167.2%) | 2031.72 (±254.3%) |
| 417 Fujian, China | 296 (±0.2%) |  |  | 4.669 (±0.9%) | 30.36 (±0.2%) |
| 417 Mauritius | 350 (±0.4%) |  |  | 8.025 (±3.1%) | 89.71 (±0.3%) |
| 368 Hebei, China | 342 (±0.3%) |  |  | 6.028 (±2.7%) | 34.70 (±0.8%) |
| 348 Isle of Man, United Kingdom | 337 (±0.1%) |  |  | 9.088 (±0.8%) | 95.30 (±0.1%) |
| 325 Bhutan | 753 (±8.4%) |  |  | 58.753 (±3.4%) | 272.64 (±2.7%) |
| 320 Mongolia | 87 (±28.2%) |  |  | 20.605 (±12.8%) | 111.79 (±7.3%) |
| 297 New Brunswick, Canada | 119 (±0.6%) |  |  | 7.038 (±2.1%) | 86.83 (±0.2%) |
| 287 Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada | 265 (±0.2%) |  |  | 7.000 (±1.7%) | 87.46 (±0.1%) |
| 283 Cambodia | 333 (±3.8%) |  |  | 45.355 (±4.2%) | 145.68 (±3.1%) |
| 280 Liaoning, China | 126 (±0.5%) |  |  | 4.818 (±2.1%) | 30.11 (±0.5%) |
| 275 Inner Mongolia, China | 262 (±0.5%) |  |  | 24.363 (±1.6%) | 76.84 (±1.0%) |
| 260 Guangxi, China | 255 (±0.1%) |  |  | 5.312 (±0.5%) | 31.48 (±0.2%) |
| 260 Monaco | 97 (±0.3%) |  |  | 8.468 (±1.3%) | 86.43 (±0.2%) |
| 252 Tianjin, China | 138 (±0.4%) |  |  | 5.603 (±1.3%) | 32.98 (±0.3%) |
| 233 Cayman Islands, United Kingdom | 213 (±0.5%) |  |  | 22.530 (±1.5%) | 121.81 (±0.4%) |
| 231 Tasmania, Australia | 230 (±0.2%) |  |  | 11.009 (±1.1%) | 94.07 (±0.2%) |
| 219 Barbados | 91 (±0.7%) |  |  | 10.968 (±2.6%) | 89.81 (±0.4%) |
| 217 Liechtenstein | 103 (±2.3%) |  |  | 7.714 (±537833604.4%) | 81.06 (±1349902955.0%) |
| 211 Yunnan, China | 2871 (±552.4%) |  |  | 380.146 (±126.4%) | 1236.56 (±238.7%) |
| 185 Bermuda, United Kingdom | 484133 (±2938.2%) |  |  | 403.699 (±205.1%) | 2032.98 (±310.5%) |
| 171 Hainan, China | 170 (±0.1%) |  |  | 5.172 (±0.9%) | 31.82 (±0.2%) |
| 170 Gansu, China | 92 (±0.7%) |  |  | 4.434 (±2.2%) | 31.01 (±0.4%) |
| 157 Jilin, China | 93 (±0.5%) |  |  | 4.141 (±2.0%) | 33.81 (±0.3%) |
| 150 Bonaire - Sint Eustatius and Saba, Netherlands | 3293054 (±603.6%) |  |  | 107.953 (±29.4%) | 677.45 (±35.4%) |
| 149 Seychelles | 11 (±0.5%) |  |  | 7.817 (±2.8%) | 77.73 (±0.3%) |
| 147 Guizhou, China | 147 (±0.1%) |  |  | 4.473 (±0.9%) | 34.71 (±0.2%) |
| 147 Brunei | 142 (±0.1%) |  |  | 7.342 (±1.3%) | 76.41 (±0.1%) |
| 119 Antigua and Barbuda | 118 (±2.6%) |  |  | 37.473 (±3.5%) | 163.76 (±1.4%) |
| 113 Australian Capital Territory, Australia | 110 (±0.2%) |  |  | 6.857 (±1.9%) | 84.65 (±0.2%) |
| 75 Ningxia, China | 75 (±0.1%) |  |  | 5.648 (±0.8%) | 33.46 (±0.2%) |
| 72 Saint Barthelemy, France | 14731760 (±746.3%) |  |  | 160.621 (±28.2%) | 977.08 (±38.7%) |
| 71 British Virgin Islands, United Kingdom | 8 (±0.7%) |  |  | 15.476 (±2.5%) | 98.97 (±0.5%) |
| 67 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 75 (±2.0%) |  |  | 39.349 (±2.6%) | 163.53 (±1.2%) |
| 65 Prince Edward Island, Canada | 614 (±106.5%) |  |  | 135.365 (±23.4%) | 511.49 (±35.6%) |
| 46 Macau, China | 46 (±0.6%) |  |  | 14.390 (±2.9%) | 69.28 (±1.1%) |
| 33 Northern Territory, Australia | 31 (±0.4%) |  |  | 7.784 (±3.6%) | 86.66 (±0.4%) |
| 33 Saint Lucia | 28 (±1.6%) |  |  | 34.056 (±4.2%) | 95.54 (±2.4%) |
| 32 Fiji | 36 (±3.8%) |  |  | 46.493 (±5.8%) | 113.95 (±3.7%) |
| 29 Timor-Leste | 25 (±0.5%) |  |  | 4.914 (±5.7%) | 105.58 (±0.2%) |
| 27 Grenada | 24 (±0.4%) |  |  | 15.155 (±2.0%) | 93.23 (±0.5%) |
| 27 New Caledonia, France | 28 (±3.5%) |  |  | 48.619 (±8.6%) | 14.64 (±139.6%) |
| 23 Laos | 20 (±0.6%) |  |  | 9.017 (±4.8%) | 89.66 (±0.6%) |
| 18 Qinghai, China | 18 (±0.1%) |  |  | 3.605 (±1.6%) | 29.22 (±0.3%) |
For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.