Labor am Elm

Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

12 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 500 , between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 9999, between 10000 and 49999, between 50000 and 99999, above 100000.

The color code on locations describes percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The color code on turning, that is: More than 20 days passed, more than 10 days passed, more than 5 days passed, ahead 5 days, ahead 10 days, more than 10 days ahead.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Mon Oct 19 04:30:23 UTC 2020

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_inf. infected_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
7494551
India
14119118 (±1.1%) 45.789 (±0.5%) 261.74 (±0.3%)
5224362
Brazil
5980111 (±0.2%) 37.226 (±0.2%) 202.42 (±0.1%)
1376020
Russia
1291367 (±1.4%) 36.715 (±2.0%) 165.89 (±0.7%)
979119
Argentina
2585447 (±0.8%) 52.679 (±0.3%) 289.45 (±0.2%)
952371
Colombia
1142732 (±0.8%) 35.213 (±0.7%) 224.97 (±0.2%)
862417
Peru
1158392 (±1.8%) 45.505 (±1.4%) 210.19 (±0.7%)
847108
Mexico
967743 (±0.6%) 39.089 (±0.5%) 203.63 (±0.2%)
843475
France
185231 (±0.4%) 11.570 (±1.2%) 94.38 (±0.2%)
705428
United Kingdom
289608 (±0.2%) 17.447 (±0.6%) 106.59 (±0.1%)
702131
South Africa
692111 (±0.3%) 22.690 (±0.8%) 190.39 (±0.1%)
526490
Iran
596560 (±1.6%) 47.338 (±1.4%) 181.38 (±0.9%)
490003
Chile
461185 (±0.6%) 27.655 (±1.2%) 162.31 (±0.3%)
423524
Iraq
666887 (±0.9%) 43.943 (±0.6%) 245.87 (±0.3%)
402536
Italy
238124 (±0.2%) 14.122 (±0.6%) 88.54 (±0.1%)
387295
Bangladesh
400165 (±0.4%) 32.675 (±0.6%) 185.16 (±0.1%)
364664
Germany
183324 (±0.3%) 12.133 (±1.0%) 90.51 (±0.2%)
357762
Indonesia
1357503 (±4.2%) 67.923 (±1.2%) 321.81 (±1.1%)
354338
Philippines
502417 (±1.9%) 40.055 (±1.3%) 236.45 (±0.5%)
345678
Turkey
171535 (±0.6%) 14.184 (±1.3%) 105.25 (±0.2%)
341854
Saudi Arabia
344470 (±0.2%) 27.901 (±0.4%) 163.48 (±0.1%)
323019
Pakistan
310686 (±0.3%) 22.603 (±0.8%) 158.74 (±0.2%)
302770
Israel
16815 (±0.3%) 10.672 (±0.7%) 92.80 (±0.1%)
301856
Ukraine
17822151 (±28.9%) 110.457 (±3.4%) 559.47 (±4.2%)
220052
Netherlands
49020 (±0.3%) 14.381 (±1.0%) 96.59 (±0.2%)
213115
Belgium
60087 (±0.2%) 13.680 (±0.6%) 98.17 (±0.1%)
197067
Canada, Canada
107302 (±0.2%) 17.896 (±0.4%) 112.45 (±0.1%)
170911
Morocco
8802 (±0.5%) 16.513 (±0.7%) 112.69 (±0.1%)
168827
Czechia
8659 (±0.6%) 12.056 (±1.5%) 91.01 (±0.2%)
167230
Poland
40266 (±1.9%) 24.996 (±1.7%) 127.89 (±0.7%)
152422
Ecuador
183176 (±2.0%) 46.447 (±1.7%) 192.15 (±1.0%)
139710
Bolivia
151664 (±0.3%) 30.904 (±0.4%) 197.59 (±0.1%)
129304
Nepal
21811 (±1.9%) 17.713 (±1.8%) 170.05 (±0.2%)
129227
Qatar
122852 (±0.3%) 23.109 (±0.7%) 145.29 (±0.2%)
124107
Panama
142058 (±0.6%) 38.248 (±0.6%) 200.77 (±0.2%)
115483
Kuwait
122539 (±1.1%) 38.520 (±1.3%) 183.71 (±0.5%)
114387
United Arab Emirates
111611 (±2.6%) 42.767 (±2.6%) 176.58 (±1.4%)
109406
Kazakhstan
110073 (±0.6%) 20.201 (±1.6%) 183.94 (±0.2%)
108296
Oman
100461 (±0.6%) 26.289 (±1.3%) 177.51 (±0.2%)
105297
Egypt
103393 (±0.2%) 22.543 (±0.6%) 160.19 (±0.1%)
103200
Sweden
63443 (±2.5%) 24.491 (±1.9%) 125.58 (±0.8%)
101028
Guatemala
108335 (±0.4%) 32.993 (±0.5%) 204.69 (±0.1%)
98055
Portugal
98767 (±4.5%) 50.823 (±4.0%) 172.29 (±3.0%)
95514
Costa Rica
185011 (±1.3%) 44.769 (±0.6%) 267.63 (±0.3%)
92670
Japan
16983 (±0.4%) 12.055 (±1.1%) 100.33 (±0.2%)
91018
Quebec, Canada
6273 (±1155.0%) 18.173 (±87.6%) 120.30 (±83.4%)
90955
China total, China total
85891 (±0.2%) 6.221 (±2.1%) 37.35 (±0.6%)
88434
Ethiopia
107975 (±1.6%) 32.402 (±1.5%) 235.15 (±0.3%)
87594
Honduras
96390 (±0.9%) 36.299 (±0.9%) 206.45 (±0.3%)
87063
Belarus
75387 (±0.5%) 23.264 (±1.4%) 137.00 (±0.3%)
86289
Venezuela
122169 (±1.0%) 37.577 (±0.7%) 241.76 (±0.2%)
77571
Bahrain
92220 (±1.6%) 42.667 (±1.4%) 201.30 (±0.7%)
74422
Switzerland
331379119 (±1420.1%) 287.015 (±85.5%) 1512.31 (±126.6%)
68139
Hubei, China
68113 (±0.1%) 5.537 (±1.0%) 37.92 (±0.2%)
66652
Moldova
160979 (±5.3%) 64.536 (±2.0%) 283.41 (±1.8%)
65869
Ontario, Canada
51433 (±1.2%) 30.656 (±2.4%) 132.34 (±1.0%)
63134
Austria
16147 (±0.4%) 9.354 (±1.4%) 85.10 (±0.2%)
63000
Armenia
53655 (±0.9%) 30.416 (±1.6%) 172.92 (±0.4%)
62809
Uzbekistan
79252 (±1.4%) 38.367 (±1.2%) 222.14 (±0.4%)
61307
Nigeria
15242 (±4.5%) 18.635 (±2.1%) 136.59 (±0.7%)
61284
Lebanon
2150 (±5.4%) 30.089 (±4.2%) 124.08 (±2.6%)
57904
Singapore
56941 (±0.4%) 24.877 (±1.1%) 131.73 (±0.3%)
54203
Algeria
14382 (±1.4%) 22.825 (±1.1%) 127.96 (±0.4%)
54015
Paraguay
132399 (±4.4%) 44.472 (±1.8%) 283.47 (±0.8%)
51490
Kyrgyzstan
3835 (±8.8%) 28.089 (±4.2%) 143.30 (±2.6%)
48678
Ireland
25423 (±0.2%) 12.404 (±0.6%) 101.93 (±0.1%)
47845
Libya
108488 (±2.2%) 42.019 (±0.9%) 280.89 (±0.4%)
47232
Ghana
50187 (±0.8%) 29.056 (±1.3%) 178.68 (±0.3%)
46746
West Bank and Gaza
78775 (±2.5%) 42.934 (±1.4%) 253.86 (±0.6%)
44816
Hungary
4107 (±0.3%) 15.160 (±0.6%) 105.32 (±0.1%)
44317
Azerbaijan
41843 (±0.5%) 27.312 (±0.9%) 176.19 (±0.2%)
44196
Kenya
43168 (±0.8%) 27.633 (±1.2%) 202.88 (±0.2%)
40542
Tunisia
1062 (±0.3%) 10.970 (±1.0%) 91.85 (±0.1%)
40141
Afghanistan
38817 (±0.2%) 19.813 (±0.6%) 149.74 (±0.1%)
36053
Jordan
1533 (±3.7%) 31.825 (±3.3%) 131.00 (±1.9%)
35946
Serbia
11564 (±0.3%) 12.672 (±0.8%) 104.05 (±0.1%)
34941
Denmark
12338 (±0.4%) 15.809 (±0.8%) 97.48 (±0.2%)
34875
Burma
161266 (±7.8%) 32.754 (±2.1%) 304.45 (±0.7%)
33561
Bosnia and Herzegovina
52248 (±2.7%) 47.759 (±1.6%) 242.85 (±0.9%)
31456
El Salvador
32452 (±0.8%) 29.740 (±1.1%) 197.89 (±0.2%)
29108
Bulgaria
37349 (±3.7%) 48.365 (±2.3%) 230.28 (±1.3%)
28268
Slovakia
1551 (±0.7%) 12.263 (±1.8%) 96.17 (±0.3%)
25199
Korea - South
10450 (±0.6%) 8.044 (±2.3%) 61.61 (±0.4%)
24932
Greece
2839 (±0.4%) 12.224 (±1.0%) 87.60 (±0.2%)
24761
Croatia
2219 (±0.4%) 11.142 (±1.1%) 90.35 (±0.1%)
23201
North Macedonia
1787 (±0.8%) 12.882 (±1.2%) 98.81 (±0.2%)
21775
Alberta, Canada
7442 (±1.4%) 13.650 (±2.3%) 107.84 (±0.3%)
21441
Cameroon
21110 (±0.3%) 27.500 (±0.7%) 158.63 (±0.2%)
20319
Victoria, Australia
1547 (±0.9%) 10.141 (±3.2%) 86.38 (±0.5%)
20301
Cote d’Ivoire
20206 (±0.5%) 26.603 (±1.0%) 172.31 (±0.2%)
19627
Malaysia
10756 (±1.8%) 27.450 (±4.3%) 107.48 (±2.1%)
16810
Madagascar
16713 (±0.5%) 21.472 (±1.2%) 196.81 (±0.1%)
16774
Albania
32640 (±2.1%) 53.417 (±1.0%) 262.16 (±0.6%)
16606
Kosovo
17653 (±0.9%) 29.672 (±1.3%) 202.56 (±0.2%)
16369
Norway
8478 (±0.3%) 12.172 (±1.1%) 84.90 (±0.2%)
16285
Georgia
1651309489 (±626.8%) 109.927 (±25.0%) 709.82 (±30.7%)
15789
Zambia
1624 (±1.8%) 16.149 (±2.9%) 137.51 (±0.4%)
15427
Montenegro
325 (±0.3%) 8.297 (±1.3%) 90.42 (±0.1%)
15392
Senegal
16800 (±0.4%) 35.242 (±0.6%) 176.98 (±0.2%)
13691
Sudan
13479 (±0.3%) 24.040 (±0.9%) 153.75 (±0.2%)
13293
Finland
7263 (±0.1%) 16.216 (±0.3%) 101.49 (±0.1%)
12416
Slovenia
1477 (±0.2%) 11.085 (±0.5%) 84.89 (±0.1%)
12263
Namibia
13842 (±0.9%) 26.983 (±1.1%) 231.50 (±0.2%)
11478
Guinea
11943 (±1.0%) 37.716 (±1.3%) 168.90 (±0.5%)
11189
British Columbia, Canada
2630 (±0.7%) 15.149 (±1.4%) 93.32 (±0.3%)
11178
Maldives
20164 (±4.9%) 51.134 (±2.6%) 244.79 (±1.7%)
11000
Congo (Kinshasa)
10683 (±0.2%) 25.082 (±0.5%) 158.74 (±0.1%)
10707
Mozambique
127075 (±16.4%) 74.988 (±3.1%) 393.11 (±3.0%)
10471
Luxembourg
3927 (±0.3%) 9.539 (±1.1%) 86.45 (±0.2%)
10455
Uganda
101590588 (±235.8%) 136.723 (±12.6%) 800.59 (±16.4%)
10455
Tajikistan
9700 (±1.1%) 29.146 (±2.4%) 156.66 (±0.6%)
10243
French Guiana, France
9869 (±0.3%) 21.929 (±0.8%) 180.59 (±0.1%)
8956
Haiti
8480 (±0.4%) 20.981 (±1.2%) 159.92 (±0.2%)
8881
Gabon
8976 (±0.3%) 26.421 (±0.6%) 161.16 (±0.1%)
8195
Jamaica
570 (±1.3%) 11.203 (±2.8%) 110.43 (±0.3%)
7638
Cabo Verde
16814 (±3.6%) 57.028 (±1.5%) 275.31 (±1.1%)
7607
Mauritania
7312 (±0.3%) 19.790 (±0.9%) 171.39 (±0.1%)
7462
Angola
40229 (±9.2%) 63.331 (±2.2%) 342.01 (±1.8%)
7269
Lithuania
1660 (±0.7%) 12.576 (±2.0%) 93.15 (±0.4%)
7122
Guadeloupe, France
158 (±0.5%) 8.325 (±2.5%) 82.82 (±0.3%)
6170
Cuba
2339 (±0.5%) 16.067 (±1.4%) 107.58 (±0.3%)
5852
Malawi
5969 (±0.4%) 22.445 (±0.9%) 191.86 (±0.1%)
5765
Eswatini
6271 (±0.7%) 29.689 (±1.0%) 207.22 (±0.2%)
5628
Bahamas
9238 (±3.4%) 38.910 (±1.8%) 263.16 (±0.7%)
5475
Sri Lanka
4151 (±2.5%) 37.768 (±3.2%) 161.09 (±1.4%)
5452
Djibouti
1136 (±1.2%) 6.885 (±3.0%) 104.92 (±0.2%)
5353
Nicaragua
5314 (±0.6%) 28.751 (±1.1%) 176.33 (±0.2%)
5281
Trinidad and Tobago
116 (±0.4%) 7.201 (±2.1%) 82.76 (±0.2%)
5242
Botswana
10172 (±12.5%) 50.938 (±4.7%) 285.86 (±2.9%)
5156
Congo (Brazzaville)
5651 (±1.1%) 31.644 (±1.5%) 192.76 (±0.4%)
5123
Suriname
5504 (±0.8%) 26.472 (±1.2%) 214.77 (±0.2%)
5070
Equatorial Guinea
5426 (±1.2%) 28.892 (±2.3%) 172.58 (±0.5%)
5033
Syria
6101 (±1.8%) 32.143 (±1.6%) 237.21 (±0.4%)
4971
Rwanda
6893 (±3.3%) 39.626 (±2.7%) 221.35 (±1.0%)
4855
Central African Republic
4800 (±0.2%) 17.833 (±0.6%) 160.29 (±0.1%)
4776
Reunion, France
435 (±0.5%) 8.012 (±1.9%) 87.03 (±0.2%)
4486
Malta
660 (±0.7%) 16.751 (±1.9%) 96.56 (±0.5%)
4338
New South Wales, Australia
3060 (±0.2%) 7.622 (±1.0%) 85.14 (±0.1%)
4304
Aruba, Netherlands
104 (±0.5%) 8.672 (±2.6%) 88.43 (±0.3%)
4052
Estonia
1936 (±0.4%) 13.239 (±1.4%) 89.96 (±0.3%)
4030
Mayotte, France
3589 (±0.8%) 27.728 (±1.7%) 141.93 (±0.5%)
3998
Iceland
1818 (±0.1%) 8.752 (±0.8%) 83.73 (±0.1%)
3864
Somalia
3448 (±0.4%) 21.570 (±1.3%) 136.61 (±0.3%)
3797
French Polynesia, France
61 (±0.3%) 9.689 (±1.4%) 84.94 (±0.2%)
3710
Guyana
440758621 (±285.5%) 162.489 (±11.5%) 975.67 (±15.8%)
3686
Thailand
3297 (±0.4%) 11.421 (±2.2%) 87.82 (±0.4%)
3392
Latvia
16055 (±114.3%) 119.927 (±27.5%) 448.92 (±40.6%)
3379
Mali
3063 (±0.6%) 27.662 (±1.4%) 146.68 (±0.4%)
3377
Andorra
805 (±0.6%) 10.434 (±2.2%) 88.66 (±0.3%)
3173
Manitoba, Canada
297 (±0.6%) 9.098 (±2.6%) 90.60 (±0.3%)
2817
South Sudan
2459 (±5.2%) 16.708 (±4.6%) 150.30 (±0.7%)
2775
Belize
3495 (±2.8%) 30.177 (±2.1%) 253.46 (±0.4%)
2581
Cyprus
963 (±0.3%) 11.760 (±1.2%) 93.13 (±0.2%)
2501
Uruguay
6849 (±15.1%) 85.079 (±5.6%) 301.99 (±7.1%)
2496
Benin
2417 (±0.7%) 25.949 (±1.5%) 176.91 (±0.3%)
2389
Guinea-Bissau
1327 (±4.7%) 10.589 (±4.2%) 127.00 (±0.4%)
2343
Burkina Faso
18262 (±64.2%) 115.288 (±14.5%) 452.43 (±20.5%)
2327
Sierra Leone
2195 (±0.5%) 26.464 (±1.1%) 153.07 (±0.3%)
2270
Saskatchewan, Canada
3040 (±4.0%) 54.156 (±2.8%) 203.62 (±2.2%)
2257
Martinique, France
191 (±0.7%) 10.034 (±2.7%) 85.41 (±0.4%)
2055
Yemen
2226 (±7.5%) 23.085 (±3.6%) 168.94 (±1.2%)
2049
Togo
811 (±2.6%) 23.770 (±2.6%) 139.63 (±0.8%)
1886
New Zealand
1515 (±0.1%) 7.948 (±0.8%) 89.65 (±0.1%)
1881
Guangdong, China
1352 (±0.1%) 4.551 (±0.5%) 31.50 (±0.1%)
1833
Lesotho
2089 (±2.3%) 32.419 (±2.4%) 225.43 (±0.5%)
1377
Liberia
1397 (±0.6%) 26.336 (±1.3%) 163.38 (±0.3%)
1365
Chad
880 (±0.4%) 12.115 (±1.1%) 131.57 (±0.1%)
1283
Zhejiang, China
1263 (±0.1%) 4.563 (±1.2%) 30.82 (±0.3%)
1281
Henan, China
1277 (±0.0%) 4.592 (±0.3%) 32.44 (±0.1%)
1209
Niger
1145 (±0.5%) 18.203 (±2.2%) 105.14 (±0.6%)
1164
Queensland, Australia
1090 (±0.3%) 8.391 (±2.3%) 84.14 (±0.3%)
1126
Vietnam
2056 (±9.6%) 59.300 (±5.3%) 225.45 (±4.8%)
1093
Nova Scotia, Canada
1075 (±0.1%) 11.567 (±0.7%) 100.38 (±0.1%)
1085
Shanghai, China
338 (±0.2%) 4.515 (±0.7%) 30.37 (±0.2%)
1019
Hunan, China
1019 (±0.0%) 4.483 (±0.3%) 31.67 (±0.1%)
991
Anhui, China
992 (±0.0%) 4.597 (±0.5%) 33.03 (±0.1%)
948
Heilongjiang, China
484 (±0.2%) 4.826 (±1.0%) 35.45 (±0.2%)
937
Jiangxi, China
935 (±0.0%) 4.438 (±0.5%) 32.90 (±0.1%)
937
Beijing, China
414 (±0.4%) 5.381 (±1.1%) 31.17 (±0.3%)
932
Sao Tome and Principe
900 (±0.5%) 20.975 (±1.6%) 144.50 (±0.3%)
902
Xinjiang, China
76 (±0.2%) 5.316 (±1.2%) 34.59 (±0.3%)
845
Shandong, China
801 (±0.2%) 7.292 (±1.6%) 35.88 (±0.6%)
759
San Marino
713 (±0.2%) 16.495 (±0.8%) 93.13 (±0.2%)
749
Sint Maarten, Netherlands
77 (±0.3%) 8.815 (±1.3%) 96.14 (±0.1%)
748
Channel Islands, United Kingdom
604 (±0.5%) 11.026 (±3.3%) 93.67 (±0.5%)
725
Sichuan, China
601 (±0.5%) 6.896 (±4.3%) 33.49 (±1.6%)
715
Curacao, Netherlands
16 (±1.2%) 9.179 (±3.2%) 84.39 (±0.4%)
712
Diamond Princess
712 (±0.1%) 4.270 (±1.4%) 44.74 (±0.2%)
711
Western Australia, Australia
630 (±0.5%) 10.742 (±3.0%) 86.61 (±0.5%)
698
Turks and Caicos Islands, United Kingdom
251076 (±4340.0%) 150.600 (±239.7%) 821.06 (±345.9%)
669
Jiangsu, China
654 (±0.1%) 5.101 (±1.0%) 33.24 (±0.2%)
586
Chongqing, China
581 (±0.0%) 4.961 (±0.4%) 30.81 (±0.1%)
558
Gibraltar, United Kingdom
598784 (±515.2%) 212.455 (±37.0%) 1094.67 (±53.5%)
536
Burundi
523 (±0.8%) 27.233 (±1.5%) 183.25 (±0.3%)
535
Taiwan
471 (±0.4%) 11.692 (±2.5%) 81.37 (±0.5%)
531
St Martin, France
40 (±0.5%) 9.656 (±2.3%) 88.79 (±0.3%)
509
Tanzania
532 (±1.9%) 8.933 (±4.2%) 110.47 (±0.3%)
502
Comoros
477 (±0.7%) 25.948 (±1.6%) 165.87 (±0.3%)
483
Faroe Islands, Denmark
187 (±0.1%) 6.277 (±0.9%) 79.23 (±0.1%)
482
South Australia, Australia
451 (±0.2%) 6.894 (±1.7%) 84.05 (±0.2%)
452
Eritrea
39 (±0.4%) 6.889 (±2.0%) 90.44 (±0.2%)
436
Shaanxi, China
945723 (±2371.3%) 405.466 (±167.2%) 2031.72 (±254.3%)
417
Fujian, China
296 (±0.2%) 4.669 (±0.9%) 30.36 (±0.2%)
417
Mauritius
350 (±0.4%) 8.025 (±3.1%) 89.71 (±0.3%)
368
Hebei, China
342 (±0.3%) 6.028 (±2.7%) 34.70 (±0.8%)
348
Isle of Man, United Kingdom
337 (±0.1%) 9.088 (±0.8%) 95.30 (±0.1%)
325
Bhutan
753 (±8.4%) 58.753 (±3.4%) 272.64 (±2.7%)
320
Mongolia
87 (±28.2%) 20.605 (±12.8%) 111.79 (±7.3%)
297
New Brunswick, Canada
119 (±0.6%) 7.038 (±2.1%) 86.83 (±0.2%)
287
Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
265 (±0.2%) 7.000 (±1.7%) 87.46 (±0.1%)
283
Cambodia
333 (±3.8%) 45.355 (±4.2%) 145.68 (±3.1%)
280
Liaoning, China
126 (±0.5%) 4.818 (±2.1%) 30.11 (±0.5%)
275
Inner Mongolia, China
262 (±0.5%) 24.363 (±1.6%) 76.84 (±1.0%)
260
Guangxi, China
255 (±0.1%) 5.312 (±0.5%) 31.48 (±0.2%)
260
Monaco
97 (±0.3%) 8.468 (±1.3%) 86.43 (±0.2%)
252
Tianjin, China
138 (±0.4%) 5.603 (±1.3%) 32.98 (±0.3%)
233
Cayman Islands, United Kingdom
213 (±0.5%) 22.530 (±1.5%) 121.81 (±0.4%)
231
Tasmania, Australia
230 (±0.2%) 11.009 (±1.1%) 94.07 (±0.2%)
219
Barbados
91 (±0.7%) 10.968 (±2.6%) 89.81 (±0.4%)
217
Liechtenstein
103 (±2.3%) 7.714 (±537833604.4%) 81.06 (±1349902955.0%)
211
Yunnan, China
2871 (±552.4%) 380.146 (±126.4%) 1236.56 (±238.7%)
185
Bermuda, United Kingdom
484133 (±2938.2%) 403.699 (±205.1%) 2032.98 (±310.5%)
171
Hainan, China
170 (±0.1%) 5.172 (±0.9%) 31.82 (±0.2%)
170
Gansu, China
92 (±0.7%) 4.434 (±2.2%) 31.01 (±0.4%)
157
Jilin, China
93 (±0.5%) 4.141 (±2.0%) 33.81 (±0.3%)
150
Bonaire - Sint Eustatius and Saba, Netherlands
3293054 (±603.6%) 107.953 (±29.4%) 677.45 (±35.4%)
149
Seychelles
11 (±0.5%) 7.817 (±2.8%) 77.73 (±0.3%)
147
Guizhou, China
147 (±0.1%) 4.473 (±0.9%) 34.71 (±0.2%)
147
Brunei
142 (±0.1%) 7.342 (±1.3%) 76.41 (±0.1%)
119
Antigua and Barbuda
118 (±2.6%) 37.473 (±3.5%) 163.76 (±1.4%)
113
Australian Capital Territory, Australia
110 (±0.2%) 6.857 (±1.9%) 84.65 (±0.2%)
75
Ningxia, China
75 (±0.1%) 5.648 (±0.8%) 33.46 (±0.2%)
72
Saint Barthelemy, France
14731760 (±746.3%) 160.621 (±28.2%) 977.08 (±38.7%)
71
British Virgin Islands, United Kingdom
8 (±0.7%) 15.476 (±2.5%) 98.97 (±0.5%)
67
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
75 (±2.0%) 39.349 (±2.6%) 163.53 (±1.2%)
65
Prince Edward Island, Canada
614 (±106.5%) 135.365 (±23.4%) 511.49 (±35.6%)
46
Macau, China
46 (±0.6%) 14.390 (±2.9%) 69.28 (±1.1%)
33
Northern Territory, Australia
31 (±0.4%) 7.784 (±3.6%) 86.66 (±0.4%)
33
Saint Lucia
28 (±1.6%) 34.056 (±4.2%) 95.54 (±2.4%)
32
Fiji
36 (±3.8%) 46.493 (±5.8%) 113.95 (±3.7%)
29
Timor-Leste
25 (±0.5%) 4.914 (±5.7%) 105.58 (±0.2%)
27
Grenada
24 (±0.4%) 15.155 (±2.0%) 93.23 (±0.5%)
27
New Caledonia, France
28 (±3.5%) 48.619 (±8.6%) 14.64 (±139.6%)
23
Laos
20 (±0.6%) 9.017 (±4.8%) 89.66 (±0.6%)
18
Qinghai, China
18 (±0.1%) 3.605 (±1.6%) 29.22 (±0.3%)

For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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