Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 500 , between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 9999, between 10000 and 49999, between 50000 and 99999, above 100000.
The color code on locations describes percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The color code on turning, that is: More than 20 days passed, more than 10 days passed, more than 5 days passed, ahead 5 days, ahead 10 days, more than 10 days ahead.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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Actualisation date: Fri Sep 18 04:27:50 UTC 2020
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| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_inf. | infected_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 6630051 US | 2220178 (±1.0%) |  |  | 19.478 (±1.3%) | 113.55 (±0.3%) |
| 5020359 India | 18848580 (±1.9%) |  |  | 50.584 (±0.6%) | 279.11 (±0.4%) |
| 4419083 Brazil | 5868666 (±0.5%) |  |  | 36.747 (±0.4%) | 201.27 (±0.1%) |
| 738020 Peru | 1135626 (±3.8%) |  |  | 45.189 (±2.2%) | 208.85 (±1.4%) |
| 736377 Colombia | 1305533 (±2.3%) |  |  | 37.626 (±1.2%) | 231.48 (±0.5%) |
| 680931 Mexico | 878945 (±0.3%) |  |  | 36.569 (±0.2%) | 197.51 (±0.1%) |
| 653444 South Africa | 691112 (±0.7%) |  |  | 22.604 (±1.1%) | 190.36 (±0.1%) |
| 614360 Spain | 238126 (±0.3%) |  |  | 11.609 (±0.9%) | 90.40 (±0.2%) |
| 589012 Argentina | 2369325 (±2.0%) |  |  | 51.367 (±0.6%) | 284.18 (±0.4%) |
| 439287 Chile | 423456 (±0.5%) |  |  | 24.498 (±0.9%) | 158.53 (±0.2%) |
| 421861 France | 185231 (±0.4%) |  |  | 11.570 (±1.2%) | 94.38 (±0.2%) |
| 410334 Iran | 481285 (±1.3%) |  |  | 40.788 (±1.2%) | 162.03 (±0.7%) |
| 378219 United Kingdom | 282525 (±0.2%) |  |  | 16.808 (±0.5%) | 105.86 (±0.1%) |
| 342671 Bangladesh | 375465 (±0.5%) |  |  | 30.827 (±0.6%) | 181.71 (±0.2%) |
| 327551 Saudi Arabia | 343989 (±0.3%) |  |  | 27.848 (±0.5%) | 163.41 (±0.1%) |
| 303634 Pakistan | 304702 (±0.4%) |  |  | 21.877 (±0.9%) | 158.17 (±0.2%) |
| 303059 Iraq | 588264 (±2.2%) |  |  | 41.804 (±1.0%) | 238.72 (±0.5%) |
| 296391 Turkey | 166437 (±0.5%) |  |  | 13.579 (±1.1%) | 104.62 (±0.2%) |
| 291442 Italy | 238124 (±0.2%) |  |  | 14.122 (±0.6%) | 88.54 (±0.1%) |
| 272934 Philippines | 1084734 (±8.9%) |  |  | 53.121 (±2.6%) | 282.22 (±2.0%) |
| 266869 Germany | 183324 (±0.3%) |  |  | 12.133 (±1.0%) | 90.51 (±0.2%) |
| 228993 Indonesia | 615626 (±3.2%) |  |  | 54.895 (±1.1%) | 262.05 (±0.9%) |
| 170465 Israel | 16815 (±0.3%) |  |  | 10.672 (±0.7%) | 92.80 (±0.1%) |
| 166694 Ukraine | 1028106 (±14.6%) |  |  | 71.791 (±3.3%) | 333.16 (±3.6%) |
| 141852 Canada, Canada | 107302 (±0.2%) |  |  | 17.896 (±0.4%) | 112.45 (±0.1%) |
| 128872 Bolivia | 161925 (±0.6%) |  |  | 32.570 (±0.5%) | 200.79 (±0.2%) |
| 122449 Qatar | 119205 (±0.2%) |  |  | 21.979 (±0.5%) | 144.22 (±0.1%) |
| 121525 Ecuador | 154915 (±2.7%) |  |  | 41.838 (±2.2%) | 178.06 (±1.3%) |
| 107056 Kazakhstan | 112449 (±1.0%) |  |  | 20.944 (±2.0%) | 184.36 (±0.2%) |
| 103466 Panama | 143653 (±1.4%) |  |  | 38.421 (±1.0%) | 201.39 (±0.4%) |
| 101500 Egypt | 102572 (±0.4%) |  |  | 22.252 (±0.8%) | 159.96 (±0.1%) |
| 96999 Kuwait | 102716 (±1.2%) |  |  | 33.430 (±1.3%) | 171.85 (±0.5%) |
| 95948 Belgium | 60087 (±0.2%) |  |  | 13.680 (±0.6%) | 98.17 (±0.1%) |
| 92016 Morocco | 8802 (±0.5%) |  |  | 16.513 (±0.7%) | 112.69 (±0.1%) |
| 91196 Oman | 92692 (±0.6%) |  |  | 23.469 (±1.1%) | 174.65 (±0.2%) |
| 90253 China total, China total | 85151 (±0.2%) |  |  | 6.118 (±1.9%) | 37.27 (±0.5%) |
| 87575 Sweden | 88921 (±0.5%) |  |  | 28.252 (±0.8%) | 139.42 (±0.3%) |
| 86320 Netherlands | 49020 (±0.3%) |  |  | 14.381 (±1.0%) | 96.59 (±0.2%) |
| 82924 Guatemala | 101504 (±0.7%) |  |  | 31.255 (±0.6%) | 201.45 (±0.2%) |
| 81782 United Arab Emirates | 74590 (±0.8%) |  |  | 29.154 (±1.4%) | 146.08 (±0.4%) |
| 76997 Japan | 16983 (±0.4%) |  |  | 12.055 (±1.1%) | 100.33 (±0.2%) |
| 75734 Poland | 40266 (±1.9%) |  |  | 24.996 (±1.7%) | 127.89 (±0.7%) |
| 74763 Belarus | 71392 (±0.2%) |  |  | 21.193 (±0.5%) | 134.93 (±0.1%) |
| 69660 Honduras | 82506 (±1.0%) |  |  | 32.265 (±0.9%) | 197.92 (±0.3%) |
| 68139 Hubei, China | 68109 (±0.1%) |  |  | 5.536 (±1.1%) | 37.92 (±0.2%) |
| 66224 Ethiopia | 254115 (±10.2%) |  |  | 45.166 (±3.1%) | 274.24 (±1.9%) |
| 65857 Quebec, Canada | 6272 (±1154.9%) |  |  | 18.173 (±87.6%) | 120.30 (±83.4%) |
| 63416 Venezuela | 180061 (±3.7%) |  |  | 43.885 (±1.3%) | 261.46 (±0.7%) |
| 62484 Bahrain | 67462 (±0.9%) |  |  | 34.307 (±0.9%) | 179.98 (±0.3%) |
| 59516 Costa Rica | 174677 (±4.1%) |  |  | 44.144 (±1.4%) | 265.00 (±0.8%) |
| 58327 Nepal | 21811 (±1.9%) |  |  | 17.713 (±1.8%) | 170.05 (±0.2%) |
| 57514 Singapore | 55829 (±0.6%) |  |  | 24.109 (±1.3%) | 130.76 (±0.4%) |
| 56604 Nigeria | 15242 (±4.5%) |  |  | 18.635 (±2.1%) | 136.59 (±0.7%) |
| 49015 Uzbekistan | 77385 (±3.6%) |  |  | 37.800 (±2.2%) | 220.78 (±0.9%) |
| 48966 Algeria | 14382 (±1.4%) |  |  | 22.825 (±1.1%) | 127.96 (±0.4%) |
| 48265 Switzerland | 30646 (±0.1%) |  |  | 10.231 (±0.5%) | 85.82 (±0.1%) |
| 47488 Ontario, Canada | 43582 (±0.4%) |  |  | 23.685 (±1.1%) | 122.30 (±0.3%) |
| 46376 Armenia | 47185 (±0.3%) |  |  | 25.789 (±0.5%) | 166.91 (±0.1%) |
| 45655 Ghana | 55194 (±1.6%) |  |  | 31.766 (±1.7%) | 183.30 (±0.5%) |
| 45072 Kyrgyzstan | 3835 (±8.8%) |  |  | 28.089 (±4.2%) | 143.30 (±2.6%) |
| 44361 Moldova | 76403 (±3.1%) |  |  | 49.039 (±1.6%) | 220.26 (±1.1%) |
| 41032 Czechia | 8659 (±0.6%) |  |  | 12.056 (±1.5%) | 91.01 (±0.2%) |
| 38855 Afghanistan | 38320 (±0.2%) |  |  | 19.356 (±0.5%) | 149.42 (±0.1%) |
| 38658 Azerbaijan | 40388 (±0.7%) |  |  | 26.045 (±1.1%) | 174.80 (±0.2%) |
| 36301 Kenya | 45037 (±1.8%) |  |  | 28.469 (±1.8%) | 204.49 (±0.4%) |
| 35073 Austria | 16147 (±0.4%) |  |  | 9.354 (±1.4%) | 85.10 (±0.2%) |
| 33006 West Bank and Gaza | 66737 (±6.0%) |  |  | 40.945 (±2.6%) | 246.01 (±1.3%) |
| 32613 Serbia | 11564 (±0.3%) |  |  | 12.672 (±0.8%) | 104.05 (±0.1%) |
| 31799 Ireland | 25423 (±0.2%) |  |  | 12.404 (±0.6%) | 101.93 (±0.1%) |
| 30419 Paraguay | 4787418022 (±149.5%) |  |  | 128.744 (±5.8%) | 792.65 (±7.7%) |
| 27163 El Salvador | 35195 (±1.9%) |  |  | 31.699 (±1.7%) | 201.54 (±0.5%) |
| 26083 Lebanon | 2150 (±5.4%) |  |  | 30.089 (±4.2%) | 124.08 (±2.6%) |
| 24936 Libya | 443624 (±12.7%) |  |  | 56.537 (±2.1%) | 343.38 (±1.7%) |
| 24211 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 81381 (±9.4%) |  |  | 55.644 (±3.0%) | 273.41 (±2.5%) |
| 22657 Korea - South | 10450 (±0.6%) |  |  | 8.044 (±2.3%) | 61.61 (±0.4%) |
| 20571 Denmark | 12338 (±0.4%) |  |  | 15.809 (±0.8%) | 97.48 (±0.2%) |
| 20303 Cameroon | 20570 (±0.5%) |  |  | 26.576 (±0.8%) | 157.46 (±0.2%) |
| 19970 Victoria, Australia | 1547 (±0.9%) |  |  | 10.141 (±3.2%) | 86.38 (±0.5%) |
| 19132 Cote d’Ivoire | 19874 (±0.9%) |  |  | 25.992 (±1.4%) | 171.69 (±0.3%) |
| 18390 Bulgaria | 29609 (±3.8%) |  |  | 42.268 (±2.3%) | 212.75 (±1.2%) |
| 16128 Alberta, Canada | 7442 (±1.4%) |  |  | 13.650 (±2.3%) | 107.84 (±0.3%) |
| 16088 North Macedonia | 1787 (±0.8%) |  |  | 12.882 (±1.2%) | 98.81 (±0.2%) |
| 15871 Madagascar | 16556 (±1.0%) |  |  | 21.145 (±1.6%) | 196.60 (±0.2%) |
| 14568 Senegal | 17306 (±0.9%) |  |  | 36.104 (±0.8%) | 178.93 (±0.3%) |
| 14460 Hungary | 4107 (±0.3%) |  |  | 15.160 (±0.6%) | 105.32 (±0.1%) |
| 14041 Greece | 2839 (±0.4%) |  |  | 12.224 (±1.0%) | 87.60 (±0.2%) |
| 14029 Croatia | 2219 (±0.4%) |  |  | 11.142 (±1.1%) | 90.35 (±0.1%) |
| 13887 Zambia | 1531 (±1.9%) |  |  | 14.978 (±3.1%) | 136.32 (±0.4%) |
| 13535 Sudan | 13142 (±0.4%) |  |  | 23.125 (±1.0%) | 152.74 (±0.2%) |
| 12683 Kosovo | 15790 (±2.5%) |  |  | 28.492 (±2.7%) | 198.61 (±0.6%) |
| 12498 Norway | 8478 (±0.3%) |  |  | 12.172 (±1.1%) | 84.90 (±0.2%) |
| 11816 Albania | 48032 (±6.1%) |  |  | 59.884 (±1.7%) | 289.86 (±1.6%) |
| 10414 Congo (Kinshasa) | 10428 (±0.2%) |  |  | 24.205 (±0.5%) | 157.80 (±0.1%) |
| 10154 Guinea | 11123 (±1.6%) |  |  | 35.531 (±1.7%) | 163.72 (±0.7%) |
| 10031 Malaysia | 9047 (±0.4%) |  |  | 19.286 (±1.4%) | 97.65 (±0.5%) |
| 9964 Namibia | 22965 (±4.5%) |  |  | 34.953 (±1.9%) | 250.06 (±0.7%) |
| 9595 French Guiana, France | 9437 (±0.4%) |  |  | 20.387 (±0.8%) | 179.37 (±0.1%) |
| 9427 Maldives | 93019 (±29.0%) |  |  | 75.975 (±5.7%) | 361.49 (±6.3%) |
| 9171 Tajikistan | 8575 (±1.0%) |  |  | 23.874 (±2.3%) | 151.23 (±0.5%) |
| 8750 Finland | 7263 (±0.1%) |  |  | 16.216 (±0.3%) | 101.49 (±0.1%) |
| 8678 Gabon | 9041 (±0.5%) |  |  | 26.656 (±0.8%) | 161.50 (±0.2%) |
| 8541 Haiti | 8131 (±0.4%) |  |  | 19.421 (±1.0%) | 158.70 (±0.2%) |
| 8100 Tunisia | 1062 (±0.3%) |  |  | 10.970 (±1.0%) | 91.85 (±0.1%) |
| 7928 Luxembourg | 3927 (±0.3%) |  |  | 9.539 (±1.1%) | 86.45 (±0.2%) |
| 7598 Zimbabwe | 896 (±5.0%) |  |  | 19.786 (±3.6%) | 162.73 (±0.8%) |
| 7498 British Columbia, Canada | 2630 (±0.7%) |  |  | 15.149 (±1.4%) | 93.32 (±0.3%) |
| 7332 Mauritania | 7066 (±0.3%) |  |  | 18.595 (±0.8%) | 170.56 (±0.1%) |
| 7291 Montenegro | 325 (±0.3%) |  |  | 8.297 (±1.3%) | 90.42 (±0.1%) |
| 5994 Mozambique | 59021 (±13.5%) |  |  | 68.425 (±2.6%) | 351.86 (±2.6%) |
| 5860 Slovakia | 1551 (±0.7%) |  |  | 12.263 (±1.8%) | 96.17 (±0.3%) |
| 5704 Malawi | 6224 (±0.7%) |  |  | 23.665 (±1.1%) | 193.09 (±0.2%) |
| 5399 Djibouti | 1136 (±1.2%) |  |  | 6.885 (±3.0%) | 104.92 (±0.2%) |
| 5266 Uganda | 1241 (±3.6%) |  |  | 22.235 (±3.4%) | 153.64 (±0.8%) |
| 5155 Eswatini | 7290 (±2.2%) |  |  | 33.246 (±1.6%) | 213.96 (±0.5%) |
| 5000 Equatorial Guinea | 6017 (±2.7%) |  |  | 31.831 (±3.0%) | 177.85 (±0.9%) |
| 4978 Cabo Verde | 8932 (±2.3%) |  |  | 45.013 (±1.1%) | 230.07 (±0.7%) |
| 4961 Nicaragua | 4980 (±0.8%) |  |  | 26.724 (±1.3%) | 173.25 (±0.3%) |
| 4934 Congo (Brazzaville) | 6190 (±2.8%) |  |  | 34.227 (±2.4%) | 197.48 (±0.8%) |
| 4876 Cuba | 2339 (±0.5%) |  |  | 16.067 (±1.4%) | 107.58 (±0.3%) |
| 4782 Central African Republic | 4779 (±0.2%) |  |  | 17.694 (±0.7%) | 160.20 (±0.1%) |
| 4645 Suriname | 7028 (±2.4%) |  |  | 31.605 (±1.6%) | 224.10 (±0.5%) |
| 4634 Rwanda | 48256 (±24.8%) |  |  | 71.476 (±4.9%) | 353.66 (±5.1%) |
| 4190 New South Wales, Australia | 3060 (±0.2%) |  |  | 7.622 (±1.0%) | 85.14 (±0.1%) |
| 4164 Jamaica | 570 (±1.3%) |  |  | 11.203 (±2.8%) | 110.43 (±0.3%) |
| 3954 Slovenia | 1477 (±0.2%) |  |  | 11.085 (±0.5%) | 84.89 (±0.1%) |
| 3852 Jordan | 1533 (±3.7%) |  |  | 31.825 (±3.3%) | 131.00 (±1.9%) |
| 3675 Angola | 7452 (±3.0%) |  |  | 39.169 (±1.3%) | 245.41 (±0.6%) |
| 3654 Syria | 470918909 (±377.8%) |  |  | 136.234 (±15.1%) | 826.62 (±20.4%) |
| 3490 Thailand | 3001 (±0.2%) |  |  | 9.314 (±0.7%) | 86.60 (±0.1%) |
| 3442 Lithuania | 1660 (±0.7%) |  |  | 12.576 (±2.0%) | 93.15 (±0.4%) |
| 3426 Guadeloupe, France | 158 (±0.5%) |  |  | 8.325 (±2.5%) | 82.82 (±0.3%) |
| 3390 Somalia | 3305 (±0.2%) |  |  | 20.045 (±0.5%) | 135.17 (±0.1%) |
| 3374 Mayotte, France | 3260 (±0.5%) |  |  | 23.788 (±1.1%) | 137.25 (±0.3%) |
| 3328 Aruba, Netherlands | 104 (±0.5%) |  |  | 8.672 (±2.6%) | 88.43 (±0.3%) |
| 3327 Trinidad and Tobago | 119 (±0.5%) |  |  | 7.597 (±2.9%) | 82.99 (±0.3%) |
| 3271 Sri Lanka | 3216 (±0.7%) |  |  | 28.262 (±1.2%) | 143.32 (±0.4%) |
| 3087 Bahamas | 4796 (±4.3%) |  |  | 27.967 (±2.6%) | 236.68 (±0.6%) |
| 3002 Reunion, France | 435 (±0.5%) |  |  | 8.012 (±1.9%) | 87.03 (±0.2%) |
| 2966 Mali | 2839 (±0.4%) |  |  | 24.760 (±0.8%) | 143.06 (±0.2%) |
| 2758 Georgia | 3044 (±13.0%) |  |  | 55.284 (±7.3%) | 200.19 (±7.0%) |
| 2756 Estonia | 1936 (±0.4%) |  |  | 13.239 (±1.4%) | 89.96 (±0.3%) |
| 2594 South Sudan | 2479 (±0.6%) |  |  | 18.620 (±1.7%) | 150.75 (±0.3%) |
| 2560 Malta | 660 (±0.7%) |  |  | 16.751 (±1.9%) | 96.56 (±0.5%) |
| 2463 Botswana | 7869 (±10.0%) |  |  | 46.191 (±3.2%) | 269.66 (±2.0%) |
| 2280 Benin | 2363 (±1.2%) |  |  | 25.078 (±2.0%) | 176.12 (±0.4%) |
| 2275 Guinea-Bissau | 1327 (±4.7%) |  |  | 10.589 (±4.2%) | 127.00 (±0.4%) |
| 2189 Iceland | 1818 (±0.1%) |  |  | 8.752 (±0.8%) | 83.73 (±0.1%) |
| 2133 Sierra Leone | 2065 (±0.4%) |  |  | 24.215 (±0.8%) | 150.30 (±0.2%) |
| 2019 Yemen | 2022 (±0.3%) |  |  | 22.707 (±0.6%) | 166.75 (±0.1%) |
| 1958 Guyana | 445255338 (±315.3%) |  |  | 147.473 (±11.8%) | 895.52 (±16.3%) |
| 1856 Uruguay | 849 (±1.0%) |  |  | 16.664 (±2.4%) | 92.78 (±0.6%) |
| 1809 New Zealand | 1515 (±0.1%) |  |  | 7.948 (±0.8%) | 89.65 (±0.1%) |
| 1784 Guangdong, China | 1352 (±0.1%) |  |  | 4.551 (±0.5%) | 31.50 (±0.1%) |
| 1751 Saskatchewan, Canada | 3094 (±8.1%) |  |  | 54.348 (±4.5%) | 205.00 (±4.0%) |
| 1748 Burkina Faso | 1467 (±2.7%) |  |  | 35.643 (±4.2%) | 120.98 (±2.1%) |
| 1608 Togo | 2619 (±4.7%) |  |  | 48.516 (±2.6%) | 211.52 (±1.9%) |
| 1548 Cyprus | 963 (±0.3%) |  |  | 11.760 (±1.2%) | 93.13 (±0.2%) |
| 1489 Manitoba, Canada | 297 (±0.6%) |  |  | 9.098 (±2.6%) | 90.60 (±0.3%) |
| 1486 Latvia | 1270 (±0.8%) |  |  | 20.232 (±2.5%) | 98.42 (±0.9%) |
| 1483 Andorra | 805 (±0.6%) |  |  | 10.434 (±2.2%) | 88.66 (±0.3%) |
| 1332 Liberia | 1436 (±1.1%) |  |  | 27.273 (±1.7%) | 164.50 (±0.4%) |
| 1327 Lesotho | 1324 (±1.2%) |  |  | 21.872 (±1.6%) | 208.29 (±0.2%) |
| 1282 Zhejiang, China | 1260 (±0.1%) |  |  | 4.541 (±1.3%) | 30.81 (±0.3%) |
| 1278 Henan, China | 1276 (±0.0%) |  |  | 4.589 (±0.3%) | 32.44 (±0.1%) |
| 1182 Niger | 1121 (±0.6%) |  |  | 17.289 (±2.4%) | 104.50 (±0.6%) |
| 1150 Queensland, Australia | 1076 (±0.2%) |  |  | 8.099 (±1.8%) | 84.08 (±0.2%) |
| 1122 Martinique, France | 191 (±0.7%) |  |  | 10.034 (±2.7%) | 85.41 (±0.4%) |
| 1099 French Polynesia, France | 61 (±0.3%) |  |  | 9.689 (±1.4%) | 84.94 (±0.2%) |
| 1090 Chad | 880 (±0.4%) |  |  | 12.115 (±1.1%) | 131.57 (±0.1%) |
| 1086 Nova Scotia, Canada | 1072 (±0.1%) |  |  | 11.501 (±0.7%) | 100.34 (±0.1%) |
| 1063 Vietnam | 329 (±0.8%) |  |  | 13.518 (±2.4%) | 82.21 (±0.6%) |
| 1019 Hunan, China | 1019 (±0.0%) |  |  | 4.483 (±0.3%) | 31.67 (±0.1%) |
| 991 Anhui, China | 992 (±0.0%) |  |  | 4.598 (±0.5%) | 33.03 (±0.1%) |
| 954 Shanghai, China | 338 (±0.2%) |  |  | 4.515 (±0.7%) | 30.37 (±0.2%) |
| 948 Heilongjiang, China | 484 (±0.2%) |  |  | 4.826 (±1.0%) | 35.45 (±0.2%) |
| 937 Jiangxi, China | 935 (±0.0%) |  |  | 4.439 (±0.5%) | 32.90 (±0.1%) |
| 935 Beijing, China | 414 (±0.4%) |  |  | 5.381 (±1.1%) | 31.17 (±0.3%) |
| 907 Sao Tome and Principe | 885 (±0.7%) |  |  | 20.367 (±1.9%) | 143.95 (±0.4%) |
| 902 Xinjiang, China | 76 (±0.2%) |  |  | 5.316 (±1.2%) | 34.59 (±0.3%) |
| 831 Shandong, China | 796 (±0.2%) |  |  | 7.204 (±1.6%) | 35.79 (±0.6%) |
| 735 San Marino | 706 (±0.2%) |  |  | 16.253 (±0.8%) | 92.88 (±0.2%) |
| 712 Diamond Princess | 712 (±0.1%) |  |  | 4.271 (±1.5%) | 44.74 (±0.2%) |
| 670 Western Australia, Australia | 617 (±0.5%) |  |  | 10.106 (±2.8%) | 86.34 (±0.4%) |
| 670 Sichuan, China | 586 (±0.4%) |  |  | 6.453 (±3.2%) | 33.18 (±1.1%) |
| 665 Jiangsu, China | 652 (±0.1%) |  |  | 5.076 (±0.9%) | 33.22 (±0.2%) |
| 659 Turks and Caicos Islands, United Kingdom | 1462 (±8.7%) |  |  | 33.433 (±4.0%) | 247.37 (±1.4%) |
| 639 Channel Islands, United Kingdom | 585 (±0.3%) |  |  | 10.186 (±2.0%) | 93.25 (±0.3%) |
| 584 Chongqing, China | 580 (±0.0%) |  |  | 4.953 (±0.4%) | 30.80 (±0.1%) |
| 557 Sint Maarten, Netherlands | 77 (±0.3%) |  |  | 8.815 (±1.3%) | 96.14 (±0.1%) |
| 500 Taiwan | 460 (±0.4%) |  |  | 10.948 (±2.0%) | 81.15 (±0.4%) |
| 472 Burundi | 510 (±1.4%) |  |  | 26.310 (±2.0%) | 182.25 (±0.4%) |
| 467 Comoros | 443 (±0.8%) |  |  | 23.263 (±1.7%) | 162.86 (±0.3%) |
| 466 South Australia, Australia | 447 (±0.2%) |  |  | 6.768 (±1.4%) | 84.00 (±0.1%) |
| 428 Faroe Islands, Denmark | 187 (±0.1%) |  |  | 6.277 (±0.9%) | 79.23 (±0.1%) |
| 392 Fujian, China | 296 (±0.2%) |  |  | 4.669 (±0.9%) | 30.36 (±0.2%) |
| 384 Shaanxi, China | 953394 (±3641.3%) |  |  | 391.513 (±254.3%) | 1963.27 (±387.6%) |
| 365 Hebei, China | 338 (±0.3%) |  |  | 5.899 (±2.5%) | 34.60 (±0.7%) |
| 365 Mauritius | 342 (±0.2%) |  |  | 7.722 (±1.7%) | 89.55 (±0.2%) |
| 364 Eritrea | 39 (±0.4%) |  |  | 6.889 (±2.0%) | 90.44 (±0.2%) |
| 340 Gibraltar, United Kingdom | 162 (±0.9%) |  |  | 10.909 (±3.5%) | 89.39 (±0.6%) |
| 339 Isle of Man, United Kingdom | 336 (±0.1%) |  |  | 9.023 (±0.8%) | 95.27 (±0.1%) |
| 330 St Martin, France | 40 (±0.5%) |  |  | 9.656 (±2.3%) | 88.79 (±0.3%) |
| 311 Mongolia | 87 (±28.2%) |  |  | 20.604 (±12.8%) | 111.79 (±7.3%) |
| 275 Cambodia | 396 (±9.2%) |  |  | 50.915 (±6.7%) | 164.51 (±6.4%) |
| 271 Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada | 263 (±0.1%) |  |  | 6.873 (±1.2%) | 87.40 (±0.1%) |
| 264 Liaoning, China | 126 (±0.5%) |  |  | 4.818 (±2.1%) | 30.11 (±0.5%) |
| 261 Inner Mongolia, China | 259 (±0.7%) |  |  | 23.984 (±1.8%) | 76.31 (±1.1%) |
| 258 Guangxi, China | 254 (±0.0%) |  |  | 5.289 (±0.4%) | 31.46 (±0.1%) |
| 246 Bhutan | 3940 (±55.2%) |  |  | 84.266 (±9.3%) | 403.11 (±11.0%) |
| 234 Tianjin, China | 138 (±0.4%) |  |  | 5.603 (±1.3%) | 32.98 (±0.3%) |
| 231 Tasmania, Australia | 230 (±0.2%) |  |  | 11.008 (±1.2%) | 94.07 (±0.2%) |
| 208 Cayman Islands, United Kingdom | 211 (±0.6%) |  |  | 22.298 (±1.7%) | 121.52 (±0.5%) |
| 206 Yunnan, China | 1659 (±861.1%) |  |  | 352.914 (±246.1%) | 995.28 (±519.5%) |
| 194 New Brunswick, Canada | 119 (±0.6%) |  |  | 7.038 (±2.1%) | 86.83 (±0.2%) |
| 192 Curacao, Netherlands | 16 (±1.2%) |  |  | 9.179 (±3.2%) | 84.39 (±0.4%) |
| 185 Barbados | 91 (±0.7%) |  |  | 10.968 (±2.6%) | 89.81 (±0.4%) |
| 181 Monaco | 97 (±0.3%) |  |  | 8.468 (±1.3%) | 86.43 (±0.2%) |
| 178 Bermuda, United Kingdom | 158 (±0.6%) |  |  | 17.608 (±2.3%) | 102.97 (±0.6%) |
| 171 Hainan, China | 170 (±0.1%) |  |  | 5.165 (±0.9%) | 31.81 (±0.2%) |
| 170 Gansu, China | 92 (±0.7%) |  |  | 4.434 (±2.2%) | 31.01 (±0.4%) |
| 157 Jilin, China | 93 (±0.5%) |  |  | 4.141 (±2.0%) | 33.81 (±0.3%) |
| 147 Guizhou, China | 147 (±0.1%) |  |  | 4.472 (±1.0%) | 34.71 (±0.2%) |
| 145 Brunei | 141 (±0.1%) |  |  | 7.266 (±1.2%) | 76.36 (±0.1%) |
| 140 Seychelles | 11 (±0.5%) |  |  | 7.817 (±2.8%) | 77.73 (±0.3%) |
| 113 Australian Capital Territory, Australia | 110 (±0.2%) |  |  | 6.774 (±2.0%) | 84.61 (±0.2%) |
| 111 Liechtenstein | 93 (±1.3%) |  |  | 7.667 (±311568085.5%) | 80.87 (±785389897.6%) |
| 95 Antigua and Barbuda | 126 (±5.4%) |  |  | 39.064 (±5.1%) | 168.16 (±2.6%) |
| 75 Ningxia, China | 75 (±0.1%) |  |  | 5.648 (±0.8%) | 33.46 (±0.2%) |
| 66 British Virgin Islands, United Kingdom | 556023 (±826.0%) |  |  | 98.072 (±45.0%) | 600.70 (±54.3%) |
| 64 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 89 (±5.0%) |  |  | 44.360 (±3.9%) | 177.60 (±2.5%) |
| 57 Prince Edward Island, Canada | 151 (±62.0%) |  |  | 92.120 (±25.0%) | 275.52 (±39.2%) |
| 46 Macau, China | 46 (±0.7%) |  |  | 14.440 (±3.2%) | 69.28 (±1.2%) |
| 33 Northern Territory, Australia | 31 (±0.5%) |  |  | 7.528 (±3.6%) | 86.57 (±0.4%) |
| 32 Fiji | 35 (±6.5%) |  |  | 45.641 (±8.6%) | 111.99 (±6.1%) |
| 28 Bonaire - Sint Eustatius and Saba, Netherlands | 1028679 (±1142.4%) |  |  | 219.923 (±51.8%) | 1242.22 (±75.4%) |
| 27 Saint Lucia | 25 (±1.7%) |  |  | 28.293 (±4.7%) | 92.55 (±2.3%) |
| 26 New Caledonia, France | 21 (±0.9%) |  |  | 7.913 (±7.5%) | 82.85 (±0.8%) |
| 24 Grenada | 24 (±0.4%) |  |  | 14.909 (±2.0%) | 93.11 (±0.5%) |
| 23 Laos | 20 (±0.5%) |  |  | 8.508 (±4.1%) | 89.45 (±0.5%) |
| 18 Qinghai, China | 18 (±0.1%) |  |  | 3.607 (±1.7%) | 29.22 (±0.3%) |
For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.