Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 500 , between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 9999, between 10000 and 49999, between 50000 and 99999, above 100000.
The color code on locations describes percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The color code on turning, that is: More than 20 days passed, more than 10 days passed, more than 5 days passed, ahead 5 days, ahead 10 days, more than 10 days ahead.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_inf. | infected_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 3117946 US | 3263196 (±2.6%) |  |  | 26.761 (±2.5%) | 129.67 (±1.1%) |
| 1755779 Brazil | 4223584 (±1.7%) |  |  | 31.869 (±0.7%) | 185.83 (±0.4%) |
| 793802 India | 5708614 (±4.9%) |  |  | 42.740 (±1.1%) | 233.96 (±0.9%) |
| 706240 Russia | 785091 (±0.7%) |  |  | 22.161 (±0.8%) | 140.25 (±0.2%) |
| 316448 Peru | 388110 (±0.7%) |  |  | 23.511 (±0.6%) | 148.54 (±0.2%) |
| 306216 Chile | 482299 (±3.8%) |  |  | 24.600 (±2.5%) | 165.14 (±0.8%) |
| 287621 United Kingdom | 283949 (±0.2%) |  |  | 16.928 (±0.5%) | 106.01 (±0.1%) |
| 282283 Mexico | 677535 (±1.4%) |  |  | 33.261 (±0.6%) | 185.76 (±0.3%) |
| 253056 Spain | 241508 (±0.3%) |  |  | 11.931 (±1.1%) | 90.63 (±0.2%) |
| 250458 Iran | 31148 (±4.4%) |  |  | 9.026 (±2.7%) | 72.89 (±0.7%) |
| 243599 Pakistan | 489518 (±5.0%) |  |  | 29.460 (±2.4%) | 175.17 (±1.1%) |
| 242363 Italy | 237094 (±0.2%) |  |  | 14.015 (±0.6%) | 88.43 (±0.1%) |
| 238339 South Africa | 188612915 (±18.1%) |  |  | 67.596 (±1.3%) | 396.18 (±1.6%) |
| 223327 Saudi Arabia | 453184 (±3.3%) |  |  | 32.418 (±1.5%) | 175.88 (±0.9%) |
| 209962 Turkey | 192262 (±0.9%) |  |  | 16.925 (±2.1%) | 108.16 (±0.4%) |
| 199001 Germany | 187255 (±0.4%) |  |  | 12.643 (±1.2%) | 90.91 (±0.2%) |
| 197964 France | 188689 (±0.3%) |  |  | 11.980 (±1.2%) | 94.64 (±0.2%) |
| 175494 Bangladesh | 390496 (±1.5%) |  |  | 29.850 (±0.7%) | 181.85 (±0.3%) |
| 128638 Colombia | 3641749 (±14.2%) |  |  | 53.598 (±2.0%) | 291.53 (±2.1%) |
| 108656 Canada, Canada | 108498 (±0.2%) |  |  | 18.142 (±0.4%) | 112.79 (±0.1%) |
| 102110 Qatar | 120702 (±0.6%) |  |  | 21.927 (±0.7%) | 144.61 (±0.2%) |
| 90693 Argentina | 13440626 (±25.3%) |  |  | 62.837 (±2.5%) | 352.55 (±2.8%) |
| 84992 China total, China total | 83447 (±0.2%) |  |  | 5.896 (±1.3%) | 37.08 (±0.3%) |
| 79254 Egypt | 169493 (±3.3%) |  |  | 30.376 (±1.5%) | 178.49 (±0.7%) |
| 74333 Sweden | 123026 (±3.8%) |  |  | 33.940 (±2.1%) | 157.50 (±1.4%) |
| 70736 Indonesia | 236501 (±6.2%) |  |  | 41.694 (±1.9%) | 204.62 (±1.6%) |
| 69612 Iraq | 2085850987 (±251.3%) |  |  | 83.178 (±11.7%) | 507.73 (±14.9%) |
| 68135 Hubei, China | 68094 (±0.2%) |  |  | 5.534 (±1.3%) | 37.92 (±0.3%) |
| 64411 Belarus | 70438 (±0.3%) |  |  | 20.652 (±0.4%) | 134.45 (±0.1%) |
| 64221 Ecuador | 63443 (±2.6%) |  |  | 22.965 (±3.3%) | 125.36 (±1.0%) |
| 62210 Belgium | 60286 (±0.2%) |  |  | 13.760 (±0.7%) | 98.23 (±0.1%) |
| 56216 Quebec, Canada | 57134 (±0.3%) |  |  | 17.273 (±0.5%) | 112.89 (±0.1%) |
| 54747 Kazakhstan | 1251268567 (±757.7%) |  |  | 88.865 (±35.8%) | 533.96 (±46.6%) |
| 53577 United Arab Emirates | 58236 (±0.5%) |  |  | 22.515 (±0.6%) | 134.55 (±0.2%) |
| 52840 Kuwait | 59625 (±1.3%) |  |  | 21.885 (±1.3%) | 147.39 (±0.3%) |
| 52285 Ukraine | 89132 (±5.3%) |  |  | 33.056 (±2.7%) | 164.74 (±1.7%) |
| 51754 Philippines | 400869 (±22.4%) |  |  | 53.751 (±4.6%) | 257.42 (±5.0%) |
| 51725 Oman | 167057 (±4.5%) |  |  | 33.321 (±1.5%) | 197.84 (±0.9%) |
| 50798 Netherlands | 48803 (±0.3%) |  |  | 14.266 (±1.0%) | 96.49 (±0.2%) |
| 45423 Singapore | 45602 (±0.6%) |  |  | 18.147 (±1.0%) | 123.22 (±0.2%) |
| 45277 Portugal | 41533 (±1.5%) |  |  | 20.265 (±2.7%) | 106.02 (±0.8%) |
| 44113 Bolivia | 157715 (±2.6%) |  |  | 34.128 (±0.8%) | 202.19 (±0.5%) |
| 42216 Panama | 1247077 (±40.0%) |  |  | 64.158 (±5.7%) | 322.27 (±6.6%) |
| 40790 Dominican Republic | 95405 (±7.5%) |  |  | 38.704 (±2.9%) | 185.56 (±2.2%) |
| 38200 Ontario, Canada | 38703 (±0.6%) |  |  | 20.191 (±1.0%) | 117.33 (±0.2%) |
| 36951 Poland | 42500 (±1.4%) |  |  | 25.956 (±1.4%) | 130.31 (±0.6%) |
| 34825 Israel | 24445 (±3.5%) |  |  | 21.581 (±5.8%) | 103.79 (±1.9%) |
| 33908 Afghanistan | 40221 (±1.1%) |  |  | 20.195 (±1.2%) | 150.73 (±0.2%) |
| 32586 Switzerland | 31035 (±0.2%) |  |  | 10.476 (±0.8%) | 85.99 (±0.1%) |
| 31528 Bahrain | 71055 (±1.8%) |  |  | 33.607 (±0.7%) | 180.98 (±0.5%) |
| 30789 Romania | 29705 (±2.0%) |  |  | 23.772 (±2.5%) | 120.57 (±0.9%) |
| 30748 Nigeria | 75682 (±3.5%) |  |  | 33.258 (±1.4%) | 185.76 (±0.8%) |
| 30346 Armenia | 74108 (±3.8%) |  |  | 32.407 (±1.5%) | 184.98 (±0.9%) |
| 26658 Guatemala | 177218 (±10.0%) |  |  | 38.966 (±2.3%) | 226.35 (±1.7%) |
| 26384 Honduras | 4032939 (±46.8%) |  |  | 61.973 (±4.6%) | 349.43 (±5.2%) |
| 25565 Ireland | 25405 (±0.2%) |  |  | 12.389 (±0.6%) | 101.92 (±0.1%) |
| 23463 Ghana | 68242 (±12.3%) |  |  | 38.694 (±4.0%) | 198.37 (±3.1%) |
| 22464 Azerbaijan | 625010 (±20.6%) |  |  | 56.280 (±3.0%) | 297.99 (±3.2%) |
| 20617 Japan | 17916 (±0.5%) |  |  | 13.382 (±1.7%) | 101.11 (±0.3%) |
| 18666 Moldova | 41642 (±6.2%) |  |  | 36.892 (±2.6%) | 178.19 (±1.9%) |
| 18615 Austria | 16795 (±0.5%) |  |  | 10.205 (±2.1%) | 85.58 (±0.3%) |
| 17808 Algeria | 21104 (±3.9%) |  |  | 29.337 (±2.8%) | 144.76 (±1.4%) |
| 17342 Serbia | 13941 (±1.5%) |  |  | 17.414 (±3.4%) | 108.41 (±0.7%) |
| 16531 Nepal | 26065 (±1.5%) |  |  | 19.701 (±1.0%) | 173.80 (±0.2%) |
| 15079 Morocco | 17557 (±6.1%) |  |  | 29.695 (±4.6%) | 140.70 (±2.3%) |
| 14916 Cameroon | 24182 (±5.2%) |  |  | 29.447 (±2.9%) | 164.40 (±1.4%) |
| 13338 Korea - South | 11504 (±0.7%) |  |  | 10.168 (±3.2%) | 63.08 (±0.8%) |
| 12919 Czechia | 10908 (±1.5%) |  |  | 18.099 (±3.3%) | 97.12 (±0.9%) |
| 12916 Denmark | 12521 (±0.3%) |  |  | 16.176 (±0.9%) | 97.88 (±0.2%) |
| 11750 Cote d’Ivoire | 566314 (±60.6%) |  |  | 62.116 (±7.7%) | 327.26 (±8.7%) |
| 11564 Uzbekistan | 2830967 (±158.0%) |  |  | 85.286 (±14.2%) | 447.65 (±18.5%) |
| 10158 Sudan | 11456 (±0.6%) |  |  | 19.527 (±0.7%) | 148.24 (±0.1%) |
| 9358 Kyrgyzstan | 194820301 (±485.9%) |  |  | 91.699 (±23.2%) | 546.88 (±30.4%) |
| 8975 Kenya | 99009 (±10.7%) |  |  | 45.649 (±2.0%) | 250.89 (±1.8%) |
| 8965 Norway | 8563 (±0.3%) |  |  | 12.407 (±1.2%) | 85.09 (±0.2%) |
| 8844 El Salvador | 79132 (±20.7%) |  |  | 46.514 (±4.2%) | 247.16 (±3.8%) |
| 8683 Malaysia | 8481 (±0.7%) |  |  | 17.237 (±1.6%) | 95.23 (±0.4%) |
| 8519 Alberta, Canada | 7839 (±0.7%) |  |  | 14.984 (±1.8%) | 108.77 (±0.3%) |
| 8372 Venezuela | 344304 (±34.5%) |  |  | 54.340 (±4.5%) | 301.98 (±4.6%) |
| 7846 Congo (Kinshasa) | 11738 (±2.0%) |  |  | 25.922 (±1.3%) | 162.00 (±0.5%) |
| 7784 Senegal | 10926 (±1.7%) |  |  | 27.513 (±1.2%) | 155.46 (±0.5%) |
| 7572 North Macedonia | 510036 (±87.4%) |  |  | 73.073 (±10.2%) | 370.77 (±12.7%) |
| 7273 Finland | 7265 (±0.1%) |  |  | 16.220 (±0.3%) | 101.49 (±0.1%) |
| 6973 Ethiopia | 8094 (±2.6%) |  |  | 17.917 (±2.3%) | 163.97 (±0.4%) |
| 6672 Bulgaria | 46209 (±42.1%) |  |  | 56.888 (±9.1%) | 259.31 (±10.4%) |
| 6486 Haiti | 7095 (±0.7%) |  |  | 16.063 (±0.9%) | 155.60 (±0.1%) |
| 6485 Costa Rica | 270374502 (±747.0%) |  |  | 103.231 (±32.6%) | 613.96 (±44.3%) |
| 6410 Tajikistan | 6209 (±0.9%) |  |  | 14.675 (±1.7%) | 142.32 (±0.2%) |
| 6086 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 15509 (±30.7%) |  |  | 47.294 (±10.5%) | 199.69 (±10.6%) |
| 5881 Guinea | 6193 (±0.8%) |  |  | 21.643 (±1.0%) | 133.61 (±0.2%) |
| 5871 Gabon | 7581 (±2.0%) |  |  | 22.875 (±1.7%) | 154.56 (±0.4%) |
| 5558 French Guiana, France | 127027411 (±329.8%) |  |  | 76.796 (±15.9%) | 473.98 (±19.7%) |
| 5220 West Bank and Gaza | 232505829 (±840.6%) |  |  | 63.562 (±37.0%) | 417.57 (±42.8%) |
| 5126 Mauritania | 7424 (±3.3%) |  |  | 18.344 (±2.4%) | 171.46 (±0.4%) |
| 4955 Djibouti | 1191 (±1.3%) |  |  | 7.544 (±3.4%) | 105.16 (±0.2%) |
| 4719 Luxembourg | 4069 (±0.5%) |  |  | 10.264 (±2.1%) | 86.92 (±0.3%) |
| 4220 Hungary | 4147 (±0.2%) |  |  | 15.388 (±0.6%) | 105.55 (±0.1%) |
| 4200 Central African Republic | 5874 (±1.6%) |  |  | 21.248 (±1.2%) | 165.41 (±0.3%) |
| 4100 Kosovo | 41411690 (±808.9%) |  |  | 114.230 (±42.3%) | 647.82 (±58.4%) |
| 3782 Madagascar | 1726743 (±153.6%) |  |  | 71.926 (±12.3%) | 406.80 (±14.7%) |
| 3672 Greece | 3177 (±0.8%) |  |  | 15.018 (±2.3%) | 90.10 (±0.6%) |
| 3467 New South Wales, Australia | 3121 (±0.3%) |  |  | 7.943 (±1.9%) | 85.28 (±0.2%) |
| 3416 Croatia | 2452 (±1.3%) |  |  | 13.258 (±4.2%) | 92.45 (±0.8%) |
| 3202 Thailand | 3090 (±0.2%) |  |  | 9.854 (±0.9%) | 86.93 (±0.1%) |
| 3188 Albania | 1748058 (±236.9%) |  |  | 99.772 (±18.8%) | 524.01 (±25.5%) |
| 3071 Equatorial Guinea | 16392 (±46.3%) |  |  | 44.996 (±11.5%) | 227.21 (±10.4%) |
| 3038 Somalia | 3272 (±0.7%) |  |  | 19.711 (±1.0%) | 134.85 (±0.2%) |
| 3028 British Columbia, Canada | 2822 (±0.6%) |  |  | 16.791 (±1.4%) | 95.40 (±0.4%) |
| 2702 Mayotte, France | 2923 (±0.9%) |  |  | 20.417 (±1.2%) | 133.26 (±0.2%) |
| 2638 Paraguay | 302 (±3.1%) |  |  | 13.522 (±2.7%) | 97.62 (±0.6%) |
| 2553 Maldives | 2559 (±0.7%) |  |  | 18.095 (±1.2%) | 134.87 (±0.2%) |
| 2403 Cuba | 2302 (±0.6%) |  |  | 15.633 (±1.4%) | 107.17 (±0.3%) |
| 2370 Mali | 3066 (±1.6%) |  |  | 25.955 (±1.3%) | 146.20 (±0.5%) |
| 2154 Sri Lanka | 2389 (±1.6%) |  |  | 21.831 (±2.0%) | 130.59 (±0.5%) |
| 2021 South Sudan | 2171 (±1.6%) |  |  | 15.018 (±2.8%) | 147.91 (±0.3%) |
| 2011 Lebanon | 2599 (±5.3%) |  |  | 33.625 (±3.8%) | 135.46 (±2.6%) |
| 2011 Estonia | 1921 (±0.4%) |  |  | 13.035 (±1.4%) | 89.80 (±0.3%) |
| 1942 Malawi | 528757 (±117.2%) |  |  | 59.211 (±10.4%) | 348.89 (±11.2%) |
| 1895 Zambia | 1761 (±2.1%) |  |  | 17.826 (±3.2%) | 139.41 (±0.5%) |
| 1882 Iceland | 1821 (±0.2%) |  |  | 8.782 (±0.9%) | 83.75 (±0.1%) |
| 1857 Lithuania | 1734 (±0.7%) |  |  | 13.711 (±2.1%) | 94.08 (±0.4%) |
| 1851 Slovakia | 1605 (±0.6%) |  |  | 13.046 (±2.0%) | 96.71 (±0.4%) |
| 1821 Congo (Brazzaville) | 40589 (±72.2%) |  |  | 61.649 (±10.8%) | 309.85 (±12.3%) |
| 1790 Guinea-Bissau | 1665 (±1.0%) |  |  | 14.924 (±2.3%) | 130.44 (±0.3%) |
| 1776 Slovenia | 1525 (±0.5%) |  |  | 11.737 (±1.8%) | 85.40 (±0.4%) |
| 1647 Guangdong, China | 1354 (±0.1%) |  |  | 4.561 (±0.5%) | 31.51 (±0.1%) |
| 1598 Sierra Leone | 1799 (±1.0%) |  |  | 20.908 (±1.1%) | 145.34 (±0.2%) |
| 1552 Cabo Verde | 15957 (±25.7%) |  |  | 49.555 (±5.0%) | 255.78 (±4.9%) |
| 1542 New Zealand | 1507 (±0.1%) |  |  | 7.859 (±0.6%) | 89.60 (±0.1%) |
| 1356 Yemen | 1825 (±2.8%) |  |  | 21.063 (±2.2%) | 163.80 (±0.5%) |
| 1342 Libya | 10075543 (±264.9%) |  |  | 81.416 (±14.4%) | 485.08 (±18.1%) |
| 1285 Benin | 24065146 (±718.0%) |  |  | 94.238 (±35.6%) | 555.22 (±47.1%) |
| 1276 Henan, China | 1276 (±0.0%) |  |  | 4.589 (±0.4%) | 32.44 (±0.1%) |
| 1269 Zhejiang, China | 1253 (±0.2%) |  |  | 4.488 (±1.4%) | 30.77 (±0.3%) |
| 1231 Tunisia | 1112 (±0.5%) |  |  | 11.984 (±1.8%) | 92.60 (±0.3%) |
| 1213 Eswatini | 29288 (±46.7%) |  |  | 56.639 (±6.8%) | 298.02 (±7.3%) |
| 1210 Rwanda | 161 (±1.7%) |  |  | 10.026 (±2.5%) | 88.35 (±0.3%) |
| 1169 Jordan | 1578 (±5.3%) |  |  | 32.419 (±4.1%) | 132.77 (±2.5%) |
| 1154 Latvia | 1102 (±0.5%) |  |  | 15.196 (±1.4%) | 93.62 (±0.3%) |
| 1097 Niger | 1015 (±0.9%) |  |  | 13.866 (±2.9%) | 101.89 (±0.5%) |
| 1092 Mozambique | 2426 (±7.1%) |  |  | 30.059 (±3.0%) | 181.96 (±1.5%) |
| 1068 Queensland, Australia | 1055 (±0.1%) |  |  | 7.724 (±0.9%) | 83.97 (±0.1%) |
| 1066 Nova Scotia, Canada | 1068 (±0.2%) |  |  | 11.421 (±0.9%) | 100.28 (±0.1%) |
| 1019 Hunan, China | 1020 (±0.0%) |  |  | 4.484 (±0.4%) | 31.67 (±0.1%) |
| 1019 Montenegro | 67510 (±867.8%) |  |  | 109.804 (±97.9%) | 516.03 (±139.3%) |
| 1010 Cyprus | 966 (±0.3%) |  |  | 11.841 (±1.3%) | 93.18 (±0.2%) |
| 1005 Burkina Faso | 926 (±0.8%) |  |  | 16.310 (±2.0%) | 97.36 (±0.5%) |
| 1000 Uganda | 1237 (±4.4%) |  |  | 22.185 (±3.8%) | 153.56 (±1.0%) |
| 991 Anhui, China | 992 (±0.1%) |  |  | 4.601 (±0.6%) | 33.03 (±0.1%) |
| 977 Uruguay | 908 (±1.0%) |  |  | 18.649 (±2.5%) | 94.77 (±0.7%) |
| 968 Georgia | 942 (±0.6%) |  |  | 19.129 (±1.2%) | 108.95 (±0.3%) |
| 957 Liberia | 15612 (±43.5%) |  |  | 57.402 (±7.3%) | 286.81 (±8.0%) |
| 947 Heilongjiang, China | 485 (±0.2%) |  |  | 4.830 (±0.9%) | 35.46 (±0.2%) |
| 937 Jiangxi, China | 936 (±0.1%) |  |  | 4.447 (±0.6%) | 32.91 (±0.1%) |
| 929 Beijing, China | 418 (±0.4%) |  |  | 5.465 (±1.3%) | 31.24 (±0.4%) |
| 885 Zimbabwe | 1596 (±10.5%) |  |  | 26.638 (±4.9%) | 179.10 (±2.0%) |
| 873 Chad | 880 (±0.4%) |  |  | 12.110 (±1.1%) | 131.56 (±0.1%) |
| 855 Andorra | 814 (±0.5%) |  |  | 10.679 (±2.2%) | 88.81 (±0.3%) |
| 813 Saskatchewan, Canada | 792 (±1.3%) |  |  | 20.601 (±2.4%) | 106.85 (±0.7%) |
| 792 Shandong, China | 785 (±0.2%) |  |  | 7.038 (±1.5%) | 35.60 (±0.5%) |
| 753 Jamaica | 674 (±1.1%) |  |  | 15.379 (±2.6%) | 112.93 (±0.5%) |
| 726 Sao Tome and Principe | 790 (±2.2%) |  |  | 17.229 (±3.4%) | 140.77 (±0.5%) |
| 721 Shanghai, China | 339 (±0.2%) |  |  | 4.551 (±0.8%) | 30.40 (±0.2%) |
| 712 Diamond Princess | 712 (±0.2%) |  |  | 4.272 (±1.8%) | 44.74 (±0.2%) |
| 704 Togo | 815 (±2.5%) |  |  | 23.843 (±2.5%) | 139.78 (±0.8%) |
| 699 San Marino | 706 (±0.4%) |  |  | 16.237 (±1.0%) | 92.87 (±0.3%) |
| 694 Suriname | 1203 (±5.5%) |  |  | 20.899 (±2.9%) | 179.07 (±0.7%) |
| 674 Malta | 658 (±0.8%) |  |  | 16.647 (±2.0%) | 96.45 (±0.5%) |
| 654 Jiangsu, China | 648 (±0.1%) |  |  | 5.024 (±0.9%) | 33.17 (±0.2%) |
| 627 Western Australia, Australia | 582 (±0.4%) |  |  | 8.731 (±2.1%) | 85.70 (±0.3%) |
| 615 Namibia | 3681447 (±374.3%) |  |  | 46.225 (±20.8%) | 326.79 (±19.9%) |
| 599 Sichuan, China | 564 (±0.3%) |  |  | 5.949 (±1.7%) | 32.76 (±0.5%) |
| 582 Chongqing, China | 579 (±0.1%) |  |  | 4.933 (±0.5%) | 30.78 (±0.1%) |
| 577 Channel Islands, United Kingdom | 562 (±0.2%) |  |  | 9.371 (±0.9%) | 92.82 (±0.1%) |
| 566 Reunion, France | 477 (±0.8%) |  |  | 10.079 (±3.7%) | 87.97 (±0.6%) |
| 509 Tanzania | 512 (±0.5%) |  |  | 8.409 (±2.7%) | 110.18 (±0.2%) |
| 449 Taiwan | 74 (±7.0%) |  |  | 13.792 (±5.0%) | 52.39 (±3.7%) |
| 443 South Australia, Australia | 440 (±0.1%) |  |  | 6.545 (±0.9%) | 83.91 (±0.1%) |
| 396 Angola | 17712414 (±286.1%) |  |  | 99.174 (±12.7%) | 591.88 (±17.0%) |
| 372 Syria | 228389 (±158.5%) |  |  | 84.382 (±12.4%) | 460.45 (±15.9%) |
| 369 Vietnam | 334 (±0.8%) |  |  | 14.011 (±2.4%) | 82.50 (±0.6%) |
| 363 Fujian, China | 296 (±0.2%) |  |  | 4.669 (±0.9%) | 30.36 (±0.2%) |
| 349 Hebei, China | 329 (±0.2%) |  |  | 5.623 (±1.7%) | 34.35 (±0.5%) |
| 342 Mauritius | 337 (±0.3%) |  |  | 7.520 (±1.6%) | 89.43 (±0.1%) |
| 336 Isle of Man, United Kingdom | 335 (±0.2%) |  |  | 8.995 (±1.0%) | 95.25 (±0.1%) |
| 325 Manitoba, Canada | 300 (±0.6%) |  |  | 9.307 (±2.7%) | 90.68 (±0.3%) |
| 321 Shaanxi, China | 286 (±0.8%) |  |  | 6.604 (±5.4%) | 32.67 (±2.0%) |
| 321 Burma | 319 (±2.3%) |  |  | 21.621 (±3.5%) | 117.86 (±0.9%) |
| 314 Comoros | 403 (±4.2%) |  |  | 19.965 (±3.8%) | 159.50 (±0.7%) |
| 314 Botswana | 4542489 (±812.5%) |  |  | 69.384 (±41.0%) | 435.13 (±48.9%) |
| 286 Guyana | 487 (±11.3%) |  |  | 37.418 (±5.7%) | 163.29 (±4.3%) |
| 261 Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada | 260 (±0.2%) |  |  | 6.704 (±1.1%) | 87.32 (±0.1%) |
| 254 Guangxi, China | 254 (±0.1%) |  |  | 5.271 (±0.4%) | 31.44 (±0.1%) |
| 249 Martinique, France | 213 (±1.2%) |  |  | 13.248 (±4.1%) | 87.23 (±0.9%) |
| 244 Inner Mongolia, China | 76 (±0.4%) |  |  | 5.386 (±1.4%) | 32.62 (±0.4%) |
| 232 Eritrea | 9171812 (±1066.0%) |  |  | 106.741 (±48.3%) | 627.71 (±66.0%) |
| 228 Tasmania, Australia | 230 (±0.4%) |  |  | 11.051 (±1.5%) | 94.10 (±0.2%) |
| 227 Mongolia | 238 (±2.3%) |  |  | 17.529 (±3.9%) | 132.86 (±0.6%) |
| 201 Cayman Islands, United Kingdom | 251 (±3.1%) |  |  | 26.218 (±3.1%) | 129.24 (±1.2%) |
| 199 Tianjin, China | 137 (±0.4%) |  |  | 5.585 (±1.2%) | 32.97 (±0.3%) |
| 199 Shanxi, China | 134 (±0.3%) |  |  | 4.347 (±1.3%) | 31.55 (±0.3%) |
| 191 Burundi | 627 (±17.2%) |  |  | 34.259 (±5.8%) | 195.63 (±3.7%) |
| 188 Faroe Islands, Denmark | 187 (±0.1%) |  |  | 6.277 (±0.9%) | 79.23 (±0.1%) |
| 187 Yunnan, China | 182 (±0.2%) |  |  | 4.977 (±1.8%) | 30.31 (±0.5%) |
| 184 Guadeloupe, France | 164 (±0.7%) |  |  | 9.088 (±3.5%) | 83.21 (±0.5%) |
| 180 Gibraltar, United Kingdom | 166 (±0.9%) |  |  | 11.554 (±3.4%) | 89.72 (±0.6%) |
| 171 Hainan, China | 169 (±0.1%) |  |  | 5.138 (±1.1%) | 31.78 (±0.3%) |
| 167 Gansu, China | 144 (±0.8%) |  |  | 11.513 (±3.5%) | 37.29 (±2.3%) |
| 166 New Brunswick, Canada | 142 (±1.4%) |  |  | 11.550 (±5.6%) | 88.31 (±1.0%) |
| 162 Liaoning, China | 124 (±0.3%) |  |  | 4.697 (±1.3%) | 30.00 (±0.3%) |
| 155 Jilin, China | 167 (±3.6%) |  |  | 28.689 (±6.8%) | 46.18 (±8.1%) |
| 149 Bermuda, United Kingdom | 144 (±0.6%) |  |  | 14.365 (±1.7%) | 100.71 (±0.3%) |
| 147 Guizhou, China | 147 (±0.1%) |  |  | 4.471 (±1.2%) | 34.71 (±0.2%) |
| 141 Cambodia | 126 (±0.5%) |  |  | 6.575 (±3.1%) | 79.39 (±0.3%) |
| 141 Brunei | 140 (±0.2%) |  |  | 7.164 (±1.2%) | 76.30 (±0.1%) |
| 134 Lesotho | 132152 (±602.8%) |  |  | 35.551 (±41.7%) | 276.27 (±31.8%) |
| 133 Trinidad and Tobago | 119 (±0.5%) |  |  | 7.619 (±3.0%) | 83.01 (±0.3%) |
| 113 Australian Capital Territory, Australia | 107 (±0.2%) |  |  | 6.402 (±1.4%) | 84.45 (±0.1%) |
| 108 Monaco | 99 (±0.4%) |  |  | 8.778 (±1.8%) | 86.62 (±0.2%) |
| 107 Bahamas | 104 (±0.3%) |  |  | 13.572 (±0.8%) | 100.43 (±0.2%) |
| 105 Aruba, Netherlands | 102 (±0.3%) |  |  | 8.326 (±1.3%) | 88.22 (±0.1%) |
| 98 Barbados | 93 (±0.6%) |  |  | 11.542 (±2.5%) | 90.10 (±0.4%) |
| 86 Liechtenstein | 82 (±0.3%) |  |  | 7.195 (±1.7%) | 80.38 (±0.2%) |
| 80 Bhutan | 92 (±2.8%) |  |  | 19.109 (±3.4%) | 147.65 (±0.6%) |
| 78 Sint Maarten, Netherlands | 77 (±0.3%) |  |  | 8.818 (±1.3%) | 96.14 (±0.1%) |
| 76 Xinjiang, China | 76 (±0.2%) |  |  | 5.315 (±1.2%) | 34.59 (±0.3%) |
| 75 Ningxia, China | 75 (±0.1%) |  |  | 5.647 (±1.0%) | 33.46 (±0.3%) |
| 73 Antigua and Barbuda | 176796 (±1442.6%) |  |  | 127.448 (±92.4%) | 682.61 (±130.6%) |
| 63 Gambia | 819 (±84.0%) |  |  | 64.688 (±15.0%) | 299.26 (±18.2%) |
| 62 French Polynesia, France | 60 (±0.3%) |  |  | 9.569 (±1.4%) | 84.86 (±0.2%) |
| 46 Macau, China | 45 (±0.4%) |  |  | 8.350 (±2.2%) | 77.86 (±0.3%) |
| 43 St Martin, France | 41 (±0.5%) |  |  | 9.879 (±2.3%) | 88.88 (±0.3%) |
| 33 Prince Edward Island, Canada | 27 (±0.6%) |  |  | 6.421 (±3.8%) | 87.18 (±0.3%) |
| 31 Northern Territory, Australia | 29 (±0.3%) |  |  | 6.781 (±2.0%) | 86.26 (±0.2%) |
| 30 Belize | 21 (±2.0%) |  |  | 9.814 (±8.7%) | 96.91 (±1.1%) |
| 26 Fiji | 18 (±0.7%) |  |  | 8.461 (±3.9%) | 90.04 (±0.4%) |
| 25 Curacao, Netherlands | 23 (±2.3%) |  |  | 21.514 (±5.1%) | 91.55 (±1.5%) |
| 24 Timor-Leste | 24 (±0.3%) |  |  | 4.366 (±3.1%) | 105.48 (±0.1%) |
| 23 Grenada | 23 (±0.8%) |  |  | 14.408 (±2.8%) | 92.84 (±0.6%) |
| 21 New Caledonia, France | 19 (±0.7%) |  |  | 5.484 (±5.7%) | 82.59 (±0.4%) |
| 19 Laos | 19 (±0.4%) |  |  | 7.900 (±2.5%) | 89.10 (±0.2%) |
| 18 Qinghai, China | 18 (±0.2%) |  |  | 3.609 (±2.0%) | 29.23 (±0.4%) |
For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.