Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 500 , between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 9999, between 10000 and 49999, between 50000 and 99999, above 100000.
The color code on locations describes percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The color code on turning, that is: More than 20 days passed, more than 10 days passed, more than 5 days passed, ahead 5 days, ahead 10 days, more than 10 days ahead.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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Actualisation date: Thu Aug 5 04:23:09 UTC 2021
Clicking on the name will direct to a page with all images for the country.
| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_inf. | infected_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 19985817 Brazil | 29016702 (±1.8%) |  |  | 107.608 (±1.1%) | 417.99 (±0.9%) |
| 4961880 Argentina | 10303934 (±5.1%) |  |  | 124.919 (±2.2%) | 519.21 (±2.0%) |
| 1296093 Bangladesh | 1557622 (±5.6%) |  |  | 119.949 (±3.5%) | 407.79 (±3.4%) |
| 487702 Ecuador | 658199 (±1.4%) |  |  | 105.393 (±1.1%) | 382.75 (±0.8%) |
| 475265 Bolivia | 891513 (±5.5%) |  |  | 129.337 (±2.7%) | 484.45 (±2.7%) |
| 448335 Belarus | 569259 (±1.3%) |  |  | 94.210 (±1.1%) | 377.13 (±0.7%) |
| 342850 Dominican Republic | 369029 (±1.0%) |  |  | 85.227 (±1.1%) | 318.36 (±0.6%) |
| 269495 Bahrain | 859853 (±9.6%) |  |  | 152.410 (±3.3%) | 600.83 (±3.7%) |
| 230713 Armenia | 236226 (±0.6%) |  |  | 66.027 (±1.0%) | 296.08 (±0.4%) |
| 175229 Algeria | 14381 (±1.4%) |  |  | 22.825 (±1.1%) | 127.96 (±0.4%) |
| 148572 Afghanistan | 159490801 (±393.2%) |  |  | 415.378 (±28.0%) | 2144.28 (±40.5%) |
| 133211 Albania | 142046 (±0.5%) |  |  | 55.167 (±1.0%) | 352.15 (±0.2%) |
| 115220 Botswana | 617057 (±15.4%) |  |  | 153.882 (±3.5%) | 732.98 (±3.7%) |
| 82064 Cameroon | 239347 (±10.9%) |  |  | 145.548 (±4.1%) | 567.23 (±4.5%) |
| 50529 Congo (Kinshasa) | 1291052 (±200.5%) |  |  | 56.726 (±14.6%) | 320.11 (±18.1%) |
| 43070 Angola | 56026 (±3.1%) |  |  | 98.389 (±2.2%) | 415.19 (±1.4%) |
| 33858 Cabo Verde | 65973 (±4.4%) |  |  | 119.125 (±2.2%) | 487.80 (±1.9%) |
| 15011 Bahamas | 12616 (±1.3%) |  |  | 67.591 (±2.0%) | 297.41 (±0.8%) |
| 14284 Belize | 13191 (±0.3%) |  |  | 40.518 (±1.1%) | 312.12 (±0.2%) |
| 13591 Burkina Faso | 14029 (±0.7%) |  |  | 48.181 (±1.7%) | 342.98 (±0.3%) |
| 13216 Congo (Brazzaville) | 14467 (±1.4%) |  |  | 87.649 (±1.5%) | 313.05 (±0.9%) |
| 9795 New South Wales, Australia | 3060 (±0.2%) |  |  | 7.622 (±1.0%) | 85.14 (±0.1%) |
| 8394 Benin | 11363 (±2.6%) |  |  | 96.146 (±2.1%) | 370.86 (±1.4%) |
| 7518 Burundi | 16615 (±4.8%) |  |  | 118.195 (±1.8%) | 562.36 (±1.4%) |
| 7151 Central African Republic | 5632 (±0.8%) |  |  | 26.698 (±4.0%) | 164.79 (±1.0%) |
| 6564 Eritrea | 13280 (±5.1%) |  |  | 111.116 (±2.3%) | 521.37 (±1.7%) |
| 5893 Nova Scotia, Canada | 2888248762 (±791.2%) |  |  | 488.453 (±28.0%) | 2880.83 (±41.2%) |
| 4588 Guinea-Bissau | 4178 (±1.8%) |  |  | 84.106 (±2.9%) | 212.30 (±2.2%) |
| 2532 Bhutan | 143840 (±53.9%) |  |  | 240.577 (±6.5%) | 1175.45 (±8.5%) |
| 1440 Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada | 326678835 (±664.6%) |  |  | 533.885 (±25.8%) | 3083.35 (±38.1%) |
| 1195 Saint Barthelemy, France | 6 (±1.4%) |  |  | 10.622 (±5.9%) | 73.24 (±1.2%) |
| 1158 Sichuan, China | 6676271041 (±2693.4%) |  |  | 1116.302 (±79.2%) | 6623.41 (±122.4%) |
| 1058 Western Australia, Australia | 1019 (±1.1%) |  |  | 71.357 (±2.9%) | 95.96 (±5.4%) |
| 1008 Anhui, China | 994 (±0.0%) |  |  | 4.617 (±0.5%) | 33.05 (±0.1%) |
| 987 Faroe Islands, Denmark | 4095949923 (±2178.1%) |  |  | 816.529 (±64.5%) | 4863.46 (±98.8%) |
| 657 Nunavut, Canada | 877 (±4.1%) |  |  | 84.630 (±4.0%) | 409.71 (±1.5%) |
| 610 Yukon, Canada | 11 (±0.5%) |  |  | 10.261 (±2.7%) | 90.26 (±0.4%) |
| 438 Liaoning, China | 458 (±0.8%) |  |  | 81.388 (±1.5%) | 164.04 (±1.5%) |
| 408 Inner Mongolia, China | 384 (±0.6%) |  |  | 60.315 (±1.8%) | 110.27 (±2.4%) |
| 338 Brunei | 494007 (±730.4%) |  |  | 669.903 (±52.4%) | 3361.43 (±79.1%) |
| 277 Guangxi, China | 262 (±0.1%) |  |  | 5.597 (±1.8%) | 31.74 (±0.5%) |
| 234 Tasmania, Australia | 232 (±0.1%) |  |  | 11.175 (±0.8%) | 94.20 (±0.1%) |
| 200 Northern Territory, Australia | 506 (±8.0%) |  |  | 145.385 (±3.1%) | 548.50 (±3.5%) |
| 147 Guizhou, China | 147 (±0.0%) |  |  | 4.474 (±0.6%) | 34.71 (±0.1%) |
| 124 Australian Capital Territory, Australia | 116 (±0.2%) |  |  | 7.952 (±3.0%) | 85.07 (±0.3%) |
| 63 Macau, China | 48 (±0.4%) |  |  | 15.544 (±2.6%) | 69.48 (±1.1%) |
For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.