Labor am Elm

Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

12 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 500 , between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 9999, between 10000 and 49999, between 50000 and 99999, above 100000.

The color code on locations describes percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The color code on turning, that is: More than 20 days passed, more than 10 days passed, more than 5 days passed, ahead 5 days, ahead 10 days, more than 10 days ahead.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Sat Jul 11 04:23:52 UTC 2020

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_inf. infected_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
3117946
US
3263196 (±2.6%) 26.761 (±2.5%) 129.67 (±1.1%)
1755779
Brazil
4223584 (±1.7%) 31.869 (±0.7%) 185.83 (±0.4%)
793802
India
5708614 (±4.9%) 42.740 (±1.1%) 233.96 (±0.9%)
706240
Russia
785091 (±0.7%) 22.161 (±0.8%) 140.25 (±0.2%)
316448
Peru
388110 (±0.7%) 23.511 (±0.6%) 148.54 (±0.2%)
306216
Chile
482299 (±3.8%) 24.600 (±2.5%) 165.14 (±0.8%)
287621
United Kingdom
283949 (±0.2%) 16.928 (±0.5%) 106.01 (±0.1%)
282283
Mexico
677535 (±1.4%) 33.261 (±0.6%) 185.76 (±0.3%)
253056
Spain
241508 (±0.3%) 11.931 (±1.1%) 90.63 (±0.2%)
250458
Iran
31148 (±4.4%) 9.026 (±2.7%) 72.89 (±0.7%)
243599
Pakistan
489518 (±5.0%) 29.460 (±2.4%) 175.17 (±1.1%)
242363
Italy
237094 (±0.2%) 14.015 (±0.6%) 88.43 (±0.1%)
238339
South Africa
188612915 (±18.1%) 67.596 (±1.3%) 396.18 (±1.6%)
223327
Saudi Arabia
453184 (±3.3%) 32.418 (±1.5%) 175.88 (±0.9%)
209962
Turkey
192262 (±0.9%) 16.925 (±2.1%) 108.16 (±0.4%)
199001
Germany
187255 (±0.4%) 12.643 (±1.2%) 90.91 (±0.2%)
197964
France
188689 (±0.3%) 11.980 (±1.2%) 94.64 (±0.2%)
175494
Bangladesh
390496 (±1.5%) 29.850 (±0.7%) 181.85 (±0.3%)
128638
Colombia
3641749 (±14.2%) 53.598 (±2.0%) 291.53 (±2.1%)
108656
Canada, Canada
108498 (±0.2%) 18.142 (±0.4%) 112.79 (±0.1%)
102110
Qatar
120702 (±0.6%) 21.927 (±0.7%) 144.61 (±0.2%)
90693
Argentina
13440626 (±25.3%) 62.837 (±2.5%) 352.55 (±2.8%)
84992
China total, China total
83447 (±0.2%) 5.896 (±1.3%) 37.08 (±0.3%)
79254
Egypt
169493 (±3.3%) 30.376 (±1.5%) 178.49 (±0.7%)
74333
Sweden
123026 (±3.8%) 33.940 (±2.1%) 157.50 (±1.4%)
70736
Indonesia
236501 (±6.2%) 41.694 (±1.9%) 204.62 (±1.6%)
69612
Iraq
2085850987 (±251.3%) 83.178 (±11.7%) 507.73 (±14.9%)
68135
Hubei, China
68094 (±0.2%) 5.534 (±1.3%) 37.92 (±0.3%)
64411
Belarus
70438 (±0.3%) 20.652 (±0.4%) 134.45 (±0.1%)
64221
Ecuador
63443 (±2.6%) 22.965 (±3.3%) 125.36 (±1.0%)
62210
Belgium
60286 (±0.2%) 13.760 (±0.7%) 98.23 (±0.1%)
56216
Quebec, Canada
57134 (±0.3%) 17.273 (±0.5%) 112.89 (±0.1%)
54747
Kazakhstan
1251268567 (±757.7%) 88.865 (±35.8%) 533.96 (±46.6%)
53577
United Arab Emirates
58236 (±0.5%) 22.515 (±0.6%) 134.55 (±0.2%)
52840
Kuwait
59625 (±1.3%) 21.885 (±1.3%) 147.39 (±0.3%)
52285
Ukraine
89132 (±5.3%) 33.056 (±2.7%) 164.74 (±1.7%)
51754
Philippines
400869 (±22.4%) 53.751 (±4.6%) 257.42 (±5.0%)
51725
Oman
167057 (±4.5%) 33.321 (±1.5%) 197.84 (±0.9%)
50798
Netherlands
48803 (±0.3%) 14.266 (±1.0%) 96.49 (±0.2%)
45423
Singapore
45602 (±0.6%) 18.147 (±1.0%) 123.22 (±0.2%)
45277
Portugal
41533 (±1.5%) 20.265 (±2.7%) 106.02 (±0.8%)
44113
Bolivia
157715 (±2.6%) 34.128 (±0.8%) 202.19 (±0.5%)
42216
Panama
1247077 (±40.0%) 64.158 (±5.7%) 322.27 (±6.6%)
40790
Dominican Republic
95405 (±7.5%) 38.704 (±2.9%) 185.56 (±2.2%)
38200
Ontario, Canada
38703 (±0.6%) 20.191 (±1.0%) 117.33 (±0.2%)
36951
Poland
42500 (±1.4%) 25.956 (±1.4%) 130.31 (±0.6%)
34825
Israel
24445 (±3.5%) 21.581 (±5.8%) 103.79 (±1.9%)
33908
Afghanistan
40221 (±1.1%) 20.195 (±1.2%) 150.73 (±0.2%)
32586
Switzerland
31035 (±0.2%) 10.476 (±0.8%) 85.99 (±0.1%)
31528
Bahrain
71055 (±1.8%) 33.607 (±0.7%) 180.98 (±0.5%)
30789
Romania
29705 (±2.0%) 23.772 (±2.5%) 120.57 (±0.9%)
30748
Nigeria
75682 (±3.5%) 33.258 (±1.4%) 185.76 (±0.8%)
30346
Armenia
74108 (±3.8%) 32.407 (±1.5%) 184.98 (±0.9%)
26658
Guatemala
177218 (±10.0%) 38.966 (±2.3%) 226.35 (±1.7%)
26384
Honduras
4032939 (±46.8%) 61.973 (±4.6%) 349.43 (±5.2%)
25565
Ireland
25405 (±0.2%) 12.389 (±0.6%) 101.92 (±0.1%)
23463
Ghana
68242 (±12.3%) 38.694 (±4.0%) 198.37 (±3.1%)
22464
Azerbaijan
625010 (±20.6%) 56.280 (±3.0%) 297.99 (±3.2%)
20617
Japan
17916 (±0.5%) 13.382 (±1.7%) 101.11 (±0.3%)
18666
Moldova
41642 (±6.2%) 36.892 (±2.6%) 178.19 (±1.9%)
18615
Austria
16795 (±0.5%) 10.205 (±2.1%) 85.58 (±0.3%)
17808
Algeria
21104 (±3.9%) 29.337 (±2.8%) 144.76 (±1.4%)
17342
Serbia
13941 (±1.5%) 17.414 (±3.4%) 108.41 (±0.7%)
16531
Nepal
26065 (±1.5%) 19.701 (±1.0%) 173.80 (±0.2%)
15079
Morocco
17557 (±6.1%) 29.695 (±4.6%) 140.70 (±2.3%)
14916
Cameroon
24182 (±5.2%) 29.447 (±2.9%) 164.40 (±1.4%)
13338
Korea - South
11504 (±0.7%) 10.168 (±3.2%) 63.08 (±0.8%)
12919
Czechia
10908 (±1.5%) 18.099 (±3.3%) 97.12 (±0.9%)
12916
Denmark
12521 (±0.3%) 16.176 (±0.9%) 97.88 (±0.2%)
11750
Cote d’Ivoire
566314 (±60.6%) 62.116 (±7.7%) 327.26 (±8.7%)
11564
Uzbekistan
2830967 (±158.0%) 85.286 (±14.2%) 447.65 (±18.5%)
10158
Sudan
11456 (±0.6%) 19.527 (±0.7%) 148.24 (±0.1%)
9358
Kyrgyzstan
194820301 (±485.9%) 91.699 (±23.2%) 546.88 (±30.4%)
8975
Kenya
99009 (±10.7%) 45.649 (±2.0%) 250.89 (±1.8%)
8965
Norway
8563 (±0.3%) 12.407 (±1.2%) 85.09 (±0.2%)
8844
El Salvador
79132 (±20.7%) 46.514 (±4.2%) 247.16 (±3.8%)
8683
Malaysia
8481 (±0.7%) 17.237 (±1.6%) 95.23 (±0.4%)
8519
Alberta, Canada
7839 (±0.7%) 14.984 (±1.8%) 108.77 (±0.3%)
8372
Venezuela
344304 (±34.5%) 54.340 (±4.5%) 301.98 (±4.6%)
7846
Congo (Kinshasa)
11738 (±2.0%) 25.922 (±1.3%) 162.00 (±0.5%)
7784
Senegal
10926 (±1.7%) 27.513 (±1.2%) 155.46 (±0.5%)
7572
North Macedonia
510036 (±87.4%) 73.073 (±10.2%) 370.77 (±12.7%)
7273
Finland
7265 (±0.1%) 16.220 (±0.3%) 101.49 (±0.1%)
6973
Ethiopia
8094 (±2.6%) 17.917 (±2.3%) 163.97 (±0.4%)
6672
Bulgaria
46209 (±42.1%) 56.888 (±9.1%) 259.31 (±10.4%)
6486
Haiti
7095 (±0.7%) 16.063 (±0.9%) 155.60 (±0.1%)
6485
Costa Rica
270374502 (±747.0%) 103.231 (±32.6%) 613.96 (±44.3%)
6410
Tajikistan
6209 (±0.9%) 14.675 (±1.7%) 142.32 (±0.2%)
6086
Bosnia and Herzegovina
15509 (±30.7%) 47.294 (±10.5%) 199.69 (±10.6%)
5881
Guinea
6193 (±0.8%) 21.643 (±1.0%) 133.61 (±0.2%)
5871
Gabon
7581 (±2.0%) 22.875 (±1.7%) 154.56 (±0.4%)
5558
French Guiana, France
127027411 (±329.8%) 76.796 (±15.9%) 473.98 (±19.7%)
5220
West Bank and Gaza
232505829 (±840.6%) 63.562 (±37.0%) 417.57 (±42.8%)
5126
Mauritania
7424 (±3.3%) 18.344 (±2.4%) 171.46 (±0.4%)
4955
Djibouti
1191 (±1.3%) 7.544 (±3.4%) 105.16 (±0.2%)
4719
Luxembourg
4069 (±0.5%) 10.264 (±2.1%) 86.92 (±0.3%)
4220
Hungary
4147 (±0.2%) 15.388 (±0.6%) 105.55 (±0.1%)
4200
Central African Republic
5874 (±1.6%) 21.248 (±1.2%) 165.41 (±0.3%)
4100
Kosovo
41411690 (±808.9%) 114.230 (±42.3%) 647.82 (±58.4%)
3782
Madagascar
1726743 (±153.6%) 71.926 (±12.3%) 406.80 (±14.7%)
3672
Greece
3177 (±0.8%) 15.018 (±2.3%) 90.10 (±0.6%)
3467
New South Wales, Australia
3121 (±0.3%) 7.943 (±1.9%) 85.28 (±0.2%)
3416
Croatia
2452 (±1.3%) 13.258 (±4.2%) 92.45 (±0.8%)
3202
Thailand
3090 (±0.2%) 9.854 (±0.9%) 86.93 (±0.1%)
3188
Albania
1748058 (±236.9%) 99.772 (±18.8%) 524.01 (±25.5%)
3071
Equatorial Guinea
16392 (±46.3%) 44.996 (±11.5%) 227.21 (±10.4%)
3038
Somalia
3272 (±0.7%) 19.711 (±1.0%) 134.85 (±0.2%)
3028
British Columbia, Canada
2822 (±0.6%) 16.791 (±1.4%) 95.40 (±0.4%)
2702
Mayotte, France
2923 (±0.9%) 20.417 (±1.2%) 133.26 (±0.2%)
2638
Paraguay
302 (±3.1%) 13.522 (±2.7%) 97.62 (±0.6%)
2553
Maldives
2559 (±0.7%) 18.095 (±1.2%) 134.87 (±0.2%)
2403
Cuba
2302 (±0.6%) 15.633 (±1.4%) 107.17 (±0.3%)
2370
Mali
3066 (±1.6%) 25.955 (±1.3%) 146.20 (±0.5%)
2154
Sri Lanka
2389 (±1.6%) 21.831 (±2.0%) 130.59 (±0.5%)
2021
South Sudan
2171 (±1.6%) 15.018 (±2.8%) 147.91 (±0.3%)
2011
Lebanon
2599 (±5.3%) 33.625 (±3.8%) 135.46 (±2.6%)
2011
Estonia
1921 (±0.4%) 13.035 (±1.4%) 89.80 (±0.3%)
1942
Malawi
528757 (±117.2%) 59.211 (±10.4%) 348.89 (±11.2%)
1895
Zambia
1761 (±2.1%) 17.826 (±3.2%) 139.41 (±0.5%)
1882
Iceland
1821 (±0.2%) 8.782 (±0.9%) 83.75 (±0.1%)
1857
Lithuania
1734 (±0.7%) 13.711 (±2.1%) 94.08 (±0.4%)
1851
Slovakia
1605 (±0.6%) 13.046 (±2.0%) 96.71 (±0.4%)
1821
Congo (Brazzaville)
40589 (±72.2%) 61.649 (±10.8%) 309.85 (±12.3%)
1790
Guinea-Bissau
1665 (±1.0%) 14.924 (±2.3%) 130.44 (±0.3%)
1776
Slovenia
1525 (±0.5%) 11.737 (±1.8%) 85.40 (±0.4%)
1647
Guangdong, China
1354 (±0.1%) 4.561 (±0.5%) 31.51 (±0.1%)
1598
Sierra Leone
1799 (±1.0%) 20.908 (±1.1%) 145.34 (±0.2%)
1552
Cabo Verde
15957 (±25.7%) 49.555 (±5.0%) 255.78 (±4.9%)
1542
New Zealand
1507 (±0.1%) 7.859 (±0.6%) 89.60 (±0.1%)
1356
Yemen
1825 (±2.8%) 21.063 (±2.2%) 163.80 (±0.5%)
1342
Libya
10075543 (±264.9%) 81.416 (±14.4%) 485.08 (±18.1%)
1285
Benin
24065146 (±718.0%) 94.238 (±35.6%) 555.22 (±47.1%)
1276
Henan, China
1276 (±0.0%) 4.589 (±0.4%) 32.44 (±0.1%)
1269
Zhejiang, China
1253 (±0.2%) 4.488 (±1.4%) 30.77 (±0.3%)
1231
Tunisia
1112 (±0.5%) 11.984 (±1.8%) 92.60 (±0.3%)
1213
Eswatini
29288 (±46.7%) 56.639 (±6.8%) 298.02 (±7.3%)
1210
Rwanda
161 (±1.7%) 10.026 (±2.5%) 88.35 (±0.3%)
1169
Jordan
1578 (±5.3%) 32.419 (±4.1%) 132.77 (±2.5%)
1154
Latvia
1102 (±0.5%) 15.196 (±1.4%) 93.62 (±0.3%)
1097
Niger
1015 (±0.9%) 13.866 (±2.9%) 101.89 (±0.5%)
1092
Mozambique
2426 (±7.1%) 30.059 (±3.0%) 181.96 (±1.5%)
1068
Queensland, Australia
1055 (±0.1%) 7.724 (±0.9%) 83.97 (±0.1%)
1066
Nova Scotia, Canada
1068 (±0.2%) 11.421 (±0.9%) 100.28 (±0.1%)
1019
Hunan, China
1020 (±0.0%) 4.484 (±0.4%) 31.67 (±0.1%)
1019
Montenegro
67510 (±867.8%) 109.804 (±97.9%) 516.03 (±139.3%)
1010
Cyprus
966 (±0.3%) 11.841 (±1.3%) 93.18 (±0.2%)
1005
Burkina Faso
926 (±0.8%) 16.310 (±2.0%) 97.36 (±0.5%)
1000
Uganda
1237 (±4.4%) 22.185 (±3.8%) 153.56 (±1.0%)
991
Anhui, China
992 (±0.1%) 4.601 (±0.6%) 33.03 (±0.1%)
977
Uruguay
908 (±1.0%) 18.649 (±2.5%) 94.77 (±0.7%)
968
Georgia
942 (±0.6%) 19.129 (±1.2%) 108.95 (±0.3%)
957
Liberia
15612 (±43.5%) 57.402 (±7.3%) 286.81 (±8.0%)
947
Heilongjiang, China
485 (±0.2%) 4.830 (±0.9%) 35.46 (±0.2%)
937
Jiangxi, China
936 (±0.1%) 4.447 (±0.6%) 32.91 (±0.1%)
929
Beijing, China
418 (±0.4%) 5.465 (±1.3%) 31.24 (±0.4%)
885
Zimbabwe
1596 (±10.5%) 26.638 (±4.9%) 179.10 (±2.0%)
873
Chad
880 (±0.4%) 12.110 (±1.1%) 131.56 (±0.1%)
855
Andorra
814 (±0.5%) 10.679 (±2.2%) 88.81 (±0.3%)
813
Saskatchewan, Canada
792 (±1.3%) 20.601 (±2.4%) 106.85 (±0.7%)
792
Shandong, China
785 (±0.2%) 7.038 (±1.5%) 35.60 (±0.5%)
753
Jamaica
674 (±1.1%) 15.379 (±2.6%) 112.93 (±0.5%)
726
Sao Tome and Principe
790 (±2.2%) 17.229 (±3.4%) 140.77 (±0.5%)
721
Shanghai, China
339 (±0.2%) 4.551 (±0.8%) 30.40 (±0.2%)
712
Diamond Princess
712 (±0.2%) 4.272 (±1.8%) 44.74 (±0.2%)
704
Togo
815 (±2.5%) 23.843 (±2.5%) 139.78 (±0.8%)
699
San Marino
706 (±0.4%) 16.237 (±1.0%) 92.87 (±0.3%)
694
Suriname
1203 (±5.5%) 20.899 (±2.9%) 179.07 (±0.7%)
674
Malta
658 (±0.8%) 16.647 (±2.0%) 96.45 (±0.5%)
654
Jiangsu, China
648 (±0.1%) 5.024 (±0.9%) 33.17 (±0.2%)
627
Western Australia, Australia
582 (±0.4%) 8.731 (±2.1%) 85.70 (±0.3%)
615
Namibia
3681447 (±374.3%) 46.225 (±20.8%) 326.79 (±19.9%)
599
Sichuan, China
564 (±0.3%) 5.949 (±1.7%) 32.76 (±0.5%)
582
Chongqing, China
579 (±0.1%) 4.933 (±0.5%) 30.78 (±0.1%)
577
Channel Islands, United Kingdom
562 (±0.2%) 9.371 (±0.9%) 92.82 (±0.1%)
566
Reunion, France
477 (±0.8%) 10.079 (±3.7%) 87.97 (±0.6%)
509
Tanzania
512 (±0.5%) 8.409 (±2.7%) 110.18 (±0.2%)
449
Taiwan
74 (±7.0%) 13.792 (±5.0%) 52.39 (±3.7%)
443
South Australia, Australia
440 (±0.1%) 6.545 (±0.9%) 83.91 (±0.1%)
396
Angola
17712414 (±286.1%) 99.174 (±12.7%) 591.88 (±17.0%)
372
Syria
228389 (±158.5%) 84.382 (±12.4%) 460.45 (±15.9%)
369
Vietnam
334 (±0.8%) 14.011 (±2.4%) 82.50 (±0.6%)
363
Fujian, China
296 (±0.2%) 4.669 (±0.9%) 30.36 (±0.2%)
349
Hebei, China
329 (±0.2%) 5.623 (±1.7%) 34.35 (±0.5%)
342
Mauritius
337 (±0.3%) 7.520 (±1.6%) 89.43 (±0.1%)
336
Isle of Man, United Kingdom
335 (±0.2%) 8.995 (±1.0%) 95.25 (±0.1%)
325
Manitoba, Canada
300 (±0.6%) 9.307 (±2.7%) 90.68 (±0.3%)
321
Shaanxi, China
286 (±0.8%) 6.604 (±5.4%) 32.67 (±2.0%)
321
Burma
319 (±2.3%) 21.621 (±3.5%) 117.86 (±0.9%)
314
Comoros
403 (±4.2%) 19.965 (±3.8%) 159.50 (±0.7%)
314
Botswana
4542489 (±812.5%) 69.384 (±41.0%) 435.13 (±48.9%)
286
Guyana
487 (±11.3%) 37.418 (±5.7%) 163.29 (±4.3%)
261
Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
260 (±0.2%) 6.704 (±1.1%) 87.32 (±0.1%)
254
Guangxi, China
254 (±0.1%) 5.271 (±0.4%) 31.44 (±0.1%)
249
Martinique, France
213 (±1.2%) 13.248 (±4.1%) 87.23 (±0.9%)
244
Inner Mongolia, China
76 (±0.4%) 5.386 (±1.4%) 32.62 (±0.4%)
232
Eritrea
9171812 (±1066.0%) 106.741 (±48.3%) 627.71 (±66.0%)
228
Tasmania, Australia
230 (±0.4%) 11.051 (±1.5%) 94.10 (±0.2%)
227
Mongolia
238 (±2.3%) 17.529 (±3.9%) 132.86 (±0.6%)
201
Cayman Islands, United Kingdom
251 (±3.1%) 26.218 (±3.1%) 129.24 (±1.2%)
199
Tianjin, China
137 (±0.4%) 5.585 (±1.2%) 32.97 (±0.3%)
199
Shanxi, China
134 (±0.3%) 4.347 (±1.3%) 31.55 (±0.3%)
191
Burundi
627 (±17.2%) 34.259 (±5.8%) 195.63 (±3.7%)
188
Faroe Islands, Denmark
187 (±0.1%) 6.277 (±0.9%) 79.23 (±0.1%)
187
Yunnan, China
182 (±0.2%) 4.977 (±1.8%) 30.31 (±0.5%)
184
Guadeloupe, France
164 (±0.7%) 9.088 (±3.5%) 83.21 (±0.5%)
180
Gibraltar, United Kingdom
166 (±0.9%) 11.554 (±3.4%) 89.72 (±0.6%)
171
Hainan, China
169 (±0.1%) 5.138 (±1.1%) 31.78 (±0.3%)
167
Gansu, China
144 (±0.8%) 11.513 (±3.5%) 37.29 (±2.3%)
166
New Brunswick, Canada
142 (±1.4%) 11.550 (±5.6%) 88.31 (±1.0%)
162
Liaoning, China
124 (±0.3%) 4.697 (±1.3%) 30.00 (±0.3%)
155
Jilin, China
167 (±3.6%) 28.689 (±6.8%) 46.18 (±8.1%)
149
Bermuda, United Kingdom
144 (±0.6%) 14.365 (±1.7%) 100.71 (±0.3%)
147
Guizhou, China
147 (±0.1%) 4.471 (±1.2%) 34.71 (±0.2%)
141
Cambodia
126 (±0.5%) 6.575 (±3.1%) 79.39 (±0.3%)
141
Brunei
140 (±0.2%) 7.164 (±1.2%) 76.30 (±0.1%)
134
Lesotho
132152 (±602.8%) 35.551 (±41.7%) 276.27 (±31.8%)
133
Trinidad and Tobago
119 (±0.5%) 7.619 (±3.0%) 83.01 (±0.3%)
113
Australian Capital Territory, Australia
107 (±0.2%) 6.402 (±1.4%) 84.45 (±0.1%)
108
Monaco
99 (±0.4%) 8.778 (±1.8%) 86.62 (±0.2%)
107
Bahamas
104 (±0.3%) 13.572 (±0.8%) 100.43 (±0.2%)
105
Aruba, Netherlands
102 (±0.3%) 8.326 (±1.3%) 88.22 (±0.1%)
98
Barbados
93 (±0.6%) 11.542 (±2.5%) 90.10 (±0.4%)
86
Liechtenstein
82 (±0.3%) 7.195 (±1.7%) 80.38 (±0.2%)
80
Bhutan
92 (±2.8%) 19.109 (±3.4%) 147.65 (±0.6%)
78
Sint Maarten, Netherlands
77 (±0.3%) 8.818 (±1.3%) 96.14 (±0.1%)
76
Xinjiang, China
76 (±0.2%) 5.315 (±1.2%) 34.59 (±0.3%)
75
Ningxia, China
75 (±0.1%) 5.647 (±1.0%) 33.46 (±0.3%)
73
Antigua and Barbuda
176796 (±1442.6%) 127.448 (±92.4%) 682.61 (±130.6%)
63
Gambia
819 (±84.0%) 64.688 (±15.0%) 299.26 (±18.2%)
62
French Polynesia, France
60 (±0.3%) 9.569 (±1.4%) 84.86 (±0.2%)
46
Macau, China
45 (±0.4%) 8.350 (±2.2%) 77.86 (±0.3%)
43
St Martin, France
41 (±0.5%) 9.879 (±2.3%) 88.88 (±0.3%)
33
Prince Edward Island, Canada
27 (±0.6%) 6.421 (±3.8%) 87.18 (±0.3%)
31
Northern Territory, Australia
29 (±0.3%) 6.781 (±2.0%) 86.26 (±0.2%)
30
Belize
21 (±2.0%) 9.814 (±8.7%) 96.91 (±1.1%)
26
Fiji
18 (±0.7%) 8.461 (±3.9%) 90.04 (±0.4%)
25
Curacao, Netherlands
23 (±2.3%) 21.514 (±5.1%) 91.55 (±1.5%)
24
Timor-Leste
24 (±0.3%) 4.366 (±3.1%) 105.48 (±0.1%)
23
Grenada
23 (±0.8%) 14.408 (±2.8%) 92.84 (±0.6%)
21
New Caledonia, France
19 (±0.7%) 5.484 (±5.7%) 82.59 (±0.4%)
19
Laos
19 (±0.4%) 7.900 (±2.5%) 89.10 (±0.2%)
18
Qinghai, China
18 (±0.2%) 3.609 (±2.0%) 29.23 (±0.4%)

For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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