Labor am Elm

Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

12 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 500 , between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 9999, between 10000 and 49999, between 50000 and 99999, above 100000.

The color code on locations describes percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The color code on turning, that is: More than 20 days passed, more than 10 days passed, more than 5 days passed, ahead 5 days, ahead 10 days, more than 10 days ahead.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Fri Sep 18 04:27:50 UTC 2020

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_inf. infected_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
6630051
US
2220178 (±1.0%) 19.478 (±1.3%) 113.55 (±0.3%)
5020359
India
18848580 (±1.9%) 50.584 (±0.6%) 279.11 (±0.4%)
4419083
Brazil
5868666 (±0.5%) 36.747 (±0.4%) 201.27 (±0.1%)
738020
Peru
1135626 (±3.8%) 45.189 (±2.2%) 208.85 (±1.4%)
736377
Colombia
1305533 (±2.3%) 37.626 (±1.2%) 231.48 (±0.5%)
680931
Mexico
878945 (±0.3%) 36.569 (±0.2%) 197.51 (±0.1%)
653444
South Africa
691112 (±0.7%) 22.604 (±1.1%) 190.36 (±0.1%)
614360
Spain
238126 (±0.3%) 11.609 (±0.9%) 90.40 (±0.2%)
589012
Argentina
2369325 (±2.0%) 51.367 (±0.6%) 284.18 (±0.4%)
439287
Chile
423456 (±0.5%) 24.498 (±0.9%) 158.53 (±0.2%)
421861
France
185231 (±0.4%) 11.570 (±1.2%) 94.38 (±0.2%)
410334
Iran
481285 (±1.3%) 40.788 (±1.2%) 162.03 (±0.7%)
378219
United Kingdom
282525 (±0.2%) 16.808 (±0.5%) 105.86 (±0.1%)
342671
Bangladesh
375465 (±0.5%) 30.827 (±0.6%) 181.71 (±0.2%)
327551
Saudi Arabia
343989 (±0.3%) 27.848 (±0.5%) 163.41 (±0.1%)
303634
Pakistan
304702 (±0.4%) 21.877 (±0.9%) 158.17 (±0.2%)
303059
Iraq
588264 (±2.2%) 41.804 (±1.0%) 238.72 (±0.5%)
296391
Turkey
166437 (±0.5%) 13.579 (±1.1%) 104.62 (±0.2%)
291442
Italy
238124 (±0.2%) 14.122 (±0.6%) 88.54 (±0.1%)
272934
Philippines
1084734 (±8.9%) 53.121 (±2.6%) 282.22 (±2.0%)
266869
Germany
183324 (±0.3%) 12.133 (±1.0%) 90.51 (±0.2%)
228993
Indonesia
615626 (±3.2%) 54.895 (±1.1%) 262.05 (±0.9%)
170465
Israel
16815 (±0.3%) 10.672 (±0.7%) 92.80 (±0.1%)
166694
Ukraine
1028106 (±14.6%) 71.791 (±3.3%) 333.16 (±3.6%)
141852
Canada, Canada
107302 (±0.2%) 17.896 (±0.4%) 112.45 (±0.1%)
128872
Bolivia
161925 (±0.6%) 32.570 (±0.5%) 200.79 (±0.2%)
122449
Qatar
119205 (±0.2%) 21.979 (±0.5%) 144.22 (±0.1%)
121525
Ecuador
154915 (±2.7%) 41.838 (±2.2%) 178.06 (±1.3%)
107056
Kazakhstan
112449 (±1.0%) 20.944 (±2.0%) 184.36 (±0.2%)
103466
Panama
143653 (±1.4%) 38.421 (±1.0%) 201.39 (±0.4%)
101500
Egypt
102572 (±0.4%) 22.252 (±0.8%) 159.96 (±0.1%)
96999
Kuwait
102716 (±1.2%) 33.430 (±1.3%) 171.85 (±0.5%)
95948
Belgium
60087 (±0.2%) 13.680 (±0.6%) 98.17 (±0.1%)
92016
Morocco
8802 (±0.5%) 16.513 (±0.7%) 112.69 (±0.1%)
91196
Oman
92692 (±0.6%) 23.469 (±1.1%) 174.65 (±0.2%)
90253
China total, China total
85151 (±0.2%) 6.118 (±1.9%) 37.27 (±0.5%)
87575
Sweden
88921 (±0.5%) 28.252 (±0.8%) 139.42 (±0.3%)
86320
Netherlands
49020 (±0.3%) 14.381 (±1.0%) 96.59 (±0.2%)
82924
Guatemala
101504 (±0.7%) 31.255 (±0.6%) 201.45 (±0.2%)
81782
United Arab Emirates
74590 (±0.8%) 29.154 (±1.4%) 146.08 (±0.4%)
76997
Japan
16983 (±0.4%) 12.055 (±1.1%) 100.33 (±0.2%)
75734
Poland
40266 (±1.9%) 24.996 (±1.7%) 127.89 (±0.7%)
74763
Belarus
71392 (±0.2%) 21.193 (±0.5%) 134.93 (±0.1%)
69660
Honduras
82506 (±1.0%) 32.265 (±0.9%) 197.92 (±0.3%)
68139
Hubei, China
68109 (±0.1%) 5.536 (±1.1%) 37.92 (±0.2%)
66224
Ethiopia
254115 (±10.2%) 45.166 (±3.1%) 274.24 (±1.9%)
65857
Quebec, Canada
6272 (±1154.9%) 18.173 (±87.6%) 120.30 (±83.4%)
63416
Venezuela
180061 (±3.7%) 43.885 (±1.3%) 261.46 (±0.7%)
62484
Bahrain
67462 (±0.9%) 34.307 (±0.9%) 179.98 (±0.3%)
59516
Costa Rica
174677 (±4.1%) 44.144 (±1.4%) 265.00 (±0.8%)
58327
Nepal
21811 (±1.9%) 17.713 (±1.8%) 170.05 (±0.2%)
57514
Singapore
55829 (±0.6%) 24.109 (±1.3%) 130.76 (±0.4%)
56604
Nigeria
15242 (±4.5%) 18.635 (±2.1%) 136.59 (±0.7%)
49015
Uzbekistan
77385 (±3.6%) 37.800 (±2.2%) 220.78 (±0.9%)
48966
Algeria
14382 (±1.4%) 22.825 (±1.1%) 127.96 (±0.4%)
48265
Switzerland
30646 (±0.1%) 10.231 (±0.5%) 85.82 (±0.1%)
47488
Ontario, Canada
43582 (±0.4%) 23.685 (±1.1%) 122.30 (±0.3%)
46376
Armenia
47185 (±0.3%) 25.789 (±0.5%) 166.91 (±0.1%)
45655
Ghana
55194 (±1.6%) 31.766 (±1.7%) 183.30 (±0.5%)
45072
Kyrgyzstan
3835 (±8.8%) 28.089 (±4.2%) 143.30 (±2.6%)
44361
Moldova
76403 (±3.1%) 49.039 (±1.6%) 220.26 (±1.1%)
41032
Czechia
8659 (±0.6%) 12.056 (±1.5%) 91.01 (±0.2%)
38855
Afghanistan
38320 (±0.2%) 19.356 (±0.5%) 149.42 (±0.1%)
38658
Azerbaijan
40388 (±0.7%) 26.045 (±1.1%) 174.80 (±0.2%)
36301
Kenya
45037 (±1.8%) 28.469 (±1.8%) 204.49 (±0.4%)
35073
Austria
16147 (±0.4%) 9.354 (±1.4%) 85.10 (±0.2%)
33006
West Bank and Gaza
66737 (±6.0%) 40.945 (±2.6%) 246.01 (±1.3%)
32613
Serbia
11564 (±0.3%) 12.672 (±0.8%) 104.05 (±0.1%)
31799
Ireland
25423 (±0.2%) 12.404 (±0.6%) 101.93 (±0.1%)
30419
Paraguay
4787418022 (±149.5%) 128.744 (±5.8%) 792.65 (±7.7%)
27163
El Salvador
35195 (±1.9%) 31.699 (±1.7%) 201.54 (±0.5%)
26083
Lebanon
2150 (±5.4%) 30.089 (±4.2%) 124.08 (±2.6%)
24936
Libya
443624 (±12.7%) 56.537 (±2.1%) 343.38 (±1.7%)
24211
Bosnia and Herzegovina
81381 (±9.4%) 55.644 (±3.0%) 273.41 (±2.5%)
22657
Korea - South
10450 (±0.6%) 8.044 (±2.3%) 61.61 (±0.4%)
20571
Denmark
12338 (±0.4%) 15.809 (±0.8%) 97.48 (±0.2%)
20303
Cameroon
20570 (±0.5%) 26.576 (±0.8%) 157.46 (±0.2%)
19970
Victoria, Australia
1547 (±0.9%) 10.141 (±3.2%) 86.38 (±0.5%)
19132
Cote d’Ivoire
19874 (±0.9%) 25.992 (±1.4%) 171.69 (±0.3%)
18390
Bulgaria
29609 (±3.8%) 42.268 (±2.3%) 212.75 (±1.2%)
16128
Alberta, Canada
7442 (±1.4%) 13.650 (±2.3%) 107.84 (±0.3%)
16088
North Macedonia
1787 (±0.8%) 12.882 (±1.2%) 98.81 (±0.2%)
15871
Madagascar
16556 (±1.0%) 21.145 (±1.6%) 196.60 (±0.2%)
14568
Senegal
17306 (±0.9%) 36.104 (±0.8%) 178.93 (±0.3%)
14460
Hungary
4107 (±0.3%) 15.160 (±0.6%) 105.32 (±0.1%)
14041
Greece
2839 (±0.4%) 12.224 (±1.0%) 87.60 (±0.2%)
14029
Croatia
2219 (±0.4%) 11.142 (±1.1%) 90.35 (±0.1%)
13887
Zambia
1531 (±1.9%) 14.978 (±3.1%) 136.32 (±0.4%)
13535
Sudan
13142 (±0.4%) 23.125 (±1.0%) 152.74 (±0.2%)
12683
Kosovo
15790 (±2.5%) 28.492 (±2.7%) 198.61 (±0.6%)
12498
Norway
8478 (±0.3%) 12.172 (±1.1%) 84.90 (±0.2%)
11816
Albania
48032 (±6.1%) 59.884 (±1.7%) 289.86 (±1.6%)
10414
Congo (Kinshasa)
10428 (±0.2%) 24.205 (±0.5%) 157.80 (±0.1%)
10154
Guinea
11123 (±1.6%) 35.531 (±1.7%) 163.72 (±0.7%)
10031
Malaysia
9047 (±0.4%) 19.286 (±1.4%) 97.65 (±0.5%)
9964
Namibia
22965 (±4.5%) 34.953 (±1.9%) 250.06 (±0.7%)
9595
French Guiana, France
9437 (±0.4%) 20.387 (±0.8%) 179.37 (±0.1%)
9427
Maldives
93019 (±29.0%) 75.975 (±5.7%) 361.49 (±6.3%)
9171
Tajikistan
8575 (±1.0%) 23.874 (±2.3%) 151.23 (±0.5%)
8750
Finland
7263 (±0.1%) 16.216 (±0.3%) 101.49 (±0.1%)
8678
Gabon
9041 (±0.5%) 26.656 (±0.8%) 161.50 (±0.2%)
8541
Haiti
8131 (±0.4%) 19.421 (±1.0%) 158.70 (±0.2%)
8100
Tunisia
1062 (±0.3%) 10.970 (±1.0%) 91.85 (±0.1%)
7928
Luxembourg
3927 (±0.3%) 9.539 (±1.1%) 86.45 (±0.2%)
7598
Zimbabwe
896 (±5.0%) 19.786 (±3.6%) 162.73 (±0.8%)
7498
British Columbia, Canada
2630 (±0.7%) 15.149 (±1.4%) 93.32 (±0.3%)
7332
Mauritania
7066 (±0.3%) 18.595 (±0.8%) 170.56 (±0.1%)
7291
Montenegro
325 (±0.3%) 8.297 (±1.3%) 90.42 (±0.1%)
5994
Mozambique
59021 (±13.5%) 68.425 (±2.6%) 351.86 (±2.6%)
5860
Slovakia
1551 (±0.7%) 12.263 (±1.8%) 96.17 (±0.3%)
5704
Malawi
6224 (±0.7%) 23.665 (±1.1%) 193.09 (±0.2%)
5399
Djibouti
1136 (±1.2%) 6.885 (±3.0%) 104.92 (±0.2%)
5266
Uganda
1241 (±3.6%) 22.235 (±3.4%) 153.64 (±0.8%)
5155
Eswatini
7290 (±2.2%) 33.246 (±1.6%) 213.96 (±0.5%)
5000
Equatorial Guinea
6017 (±2.7%) 31.831 (±3.0%) 177.85 (±0.9%)
4978
Cabo Verde
8932 (±2.3%) 45.013 (±1.1%) 230.07 (±0.7%)
4961
Nicaragua
4980 (±0.8%) 26.724 (±1.3%) 173.25 (±0.3%)
4934
Congo (Brazzaville)
6190 (±2.8%) 34.227 (±2.4%) 197.48 (±0.8%)
4876
Cuba
2339 (±0.5%) 16.067 (±1.4%) 107.58 (±0.3%)
4782
Central African Republic
4779 (±0.2%) 17.694 (±0.7%) 160.20 (±0.1%)
4645
Suriname
7028 (±2.4%) 31.605 (±1.6%) 224.10 (±0.5%)
4634
Rwanda
48256 (±24.8%) 71.476 (±4.9%) 353.66 (±5.1%)
4190
New South Wales, Australia
3060 (±0.2%) 7.622 (±1.0%) 85.14 (±0.1%)
4164
Jamaica
570 (±1.3%) 11.203 (±2.8%) 110.43 (±0.3%)
3954
Slovenia
1477 (±0.2%) 11.085 (±0.5%) 84.89 (±0.1%)
3852
Jordan
1533 (±3.7%) 31.825 (±3.3%) 131.00 (±1.9%)
3675
Angola
7452 (±3.0%) 39.169 (±1.3%) 245.41 (±0.6%)
3654
Syria
470918909 (±377.8%) 136.234 (±15.1%) 826.62 (±20.4%)
3490
Thailand
3001 (±0.2%) 9.314 (±0.7%) 86.60 (±0.1%)
3442
Lithuania
1660 (±0.7%) 12.576 (±2.0%) 93.15 (±0.4%)
3426
Guadeloupe, France
158 (±0.5%) 8.325 (±2.5%) 82.82 (±0.3%)
3390
Somalia
3305 (±0.2%) 20.045 (±0.5%) 135.17 (±0.1%)
3374
Mayotte, France
3260 (±0.5%) 23.788 (±1.1%) 137.25 (±0.3%)
3328
Aruba, Netherlands
104 (±0.5%) 8.672 (±2.6%) 88.43 (±0.3%)
3327
Trinidad and Tobago
119 (±0.5%) 7.597 (±2.9%) 82.99 (±0.3%)
3271
Sri Lanka
3216 (±0.7%) 28.262 (±1.2%) 143.32 (±0.4%)
3087
Bahamas
4796 (±4.3%) 27.967 (±2.6%) 236.68 (±0.6%)
3002
Reunion, France
435 (±0.5%) 8.012 (±1.9%) 87.03 (±0.2%)
2966
Mali
2839 (±0.4%) 24.760 (±0.8%) 143.06 (±0.2%)
2758
Georgia
3044 (±13.0%) 55.284 (±7.3%) 200.19 (±7.0%)
2756
Estonia
1936 (±0.4%) 13.239 (±1.4%) 89.96 (±0.3%)
2594
South Sudan
2479 (±0.6%) 18.620 (±1.7%) 150.75 (±0.3%)
2560
Malta
660 (±0.7%) 16.751 (±1.9%) 96.56 (±0.5%)
2463
Botswana
7869 (±10.0%) 46.191 (±3.2%) 269.66 (±2.0%)
2280
Benin
2363 (±1.2%) 25.078 (±2.0%) 176.12 (±0.4%)
2275
Guinea-Bissau
1327 (±4.7%) 10.589 (±4.2%) 127.00 (±0.4%)
2189
Iceland
1818 (±0.1%) 8.752 (±0.8%) 83.73 (±0.1%)
2133
Sierra Leone
2065 (±0.4%) 24.215 (±0.8%) 150.30 (±0.2%)
2019
Yemen
2022 (±0.3%) 22.707 (±0.6%) 166.75 (±0.1%)
1958
Guyana
445255338 (±315.3%) 147.473 (±11.8%) 895.52 (±16.3%)
1856
Uruguay
849 (±1.0%) 16.664 (±2.4%) 92.78 (±0.6%)
1809
New Zealand
1515 (±0.1%) 7.948 (±0.8%) 89.65 (±0.1%)
1784
Guangdong, China
1352 (±0.1%) 4.551 (±0.5%) 31.50 (±0.1%)
1751
Saskatchewan, Canada
3094 (±8.1%) 54.348 (±4.5%) 205.00 (±4.0%)
1748
Burkina Faso
1467 (±2.7%) 35.643 (±4.2%) 120.98 (±2.1%)
1608
Togo
2619 (±4.7%) 48.516 (±2.6%) 211.52 (±1.9%)
1548
Cyprus
963 (±0.3%) 11.760 (±1.2%) 93.13 (±0.2%)
1489
Manitoba, Canada
297 (±0.6%) 9.098 (±2.6%) 90.60 (±0.3%)
1486
Latvia
1270 (±0.8%) 20.232 (±2.5%) 98.42 (±0.9%)
1483
Andorra
805 (±0.6%) 10.434 (±2.2%) 88.66 (±0.3%)
1332
Liberia
1436 (±1.1%) 27.273 (±1.7%) 164.50 (±0.4%)
1327
Lesotho
1324 (±1.2%) 21.872 (±1.6%) 208.29 (±0.2%)
1282
Zhejiang, China
1260 (±0.1%) 4.541 (±1.3%) 30.81 (±0.3%)
1278
Henan, China
1276 (±0.0%) 4.589 (±0.3%) 32.44 (±0.1%)
1182
Niger
1121 (±0.6%) 17.289 (±2.4%) 104.50 (±0.6%)
1150
Queensland, Australia
1076 (±0.2%) 8.099 (±1.8%) 84.08 (±0.2%)
1122
Martinique, France
191 (±0.7%) 10.034 (±2.7%) 85.41 (±0.4%)
1099
French Polynesia, France
61 (±0.3%) 9.689 (±1.4%) 84.94 (±0.2%)
1090
Chad
880 (±0.4%) 12.115 (±1.1%) 131.57 (±0.1%)
1086
Nova Scotia, Canada
1072 (±0.1%) 11.501 (±0.7%) 100.34 (±0.1%)
1063
Vietnam
329 (±0.8%) 13.518 (±2.4%) 82.21 (±0.6%)
1019
Hunan, China
1019 (±0.0%) 4.483 (±0.3%) 31.67 (±0.1%)
991
Anhui, China
992 (±0.0%) 4.598 (±0.5%) 33.03 (±0.1%)
954
Shanghai, China
338 (±0.2%) 4.515 (±0.7%) 30.37 (±0.2%)
948
Heilongjiang, China
484 (±0.2%) 4.826 (±1.0%) 35.45 (±0.2%)
937
Jiangxi, China
935 (±0.0%) 4.439 (±0.5%) 32.90 (±0.1%)
935
Beijing, China
414 (±0.4%) 5.381 (±1.1%) 31.17 (±0.3%)
907
Sao Tome and Principe
885 (±0.7%) 20.367 (±1.9%) 143.95 (±0.4%)
902
Xinjiang, China
76 (±0.2%) 5.316 (±1.2%) 34.59 (±0.3%)
831
Shandong, China
796 (±0.2%) 7.204 (±1.6%) 35.79 (±0.6%)
735
San Marino
706 (±0.2%) 16.253 (±0.8%) 92.88 (±0.2%)
712
Diamond Princess
712 (±0.1%) 4.271 (±1.5%) 44.74 (±0.2%)
670
Western Australia, Australia
617 (±0.5%) 10.106 (±2.8%) 86.34 (±0.4%)
670
Sichuan, China
586 (±0.4%) 6.453 (±3.2%) 33.18 (±1.1%)
665
Jiangsu, China
652 (±0.1%) 5.076 (±0.9%) 33.22 (±0.2%)
659
Turks and Caicos Islands, United Kingdom
1462 (±8.7%) 33.433 (±4.0%) 247.37 (±1.4%)
639
Channel Islands, United Kingdom
585 (±0.3%) 10.186 (±2.0%) 93.25 (±0.3%)
584
Chongqing, China
580 (±0.0%) 4.953 (±0.4%) 30.80 (±0.1%)
557
Sint Maarten, Netherlands
77 (±0.3%) 8.815 (±1.3%) 96.14 (±0.1%)
500
Taiwan
460 (±0.4%) 10.948 (±2.0%) 81.15 (±0.4%)
472
Burundi
510 (±1.4%) 26.310 (±2.0%) 182.25 (±0.4%)
467
Comoros
443 (±0.8%) 23.263 (±1.7%) 162.86 (±0.3%)
466
South Australia, Australia
447 (±0.2%) 6.768 (±1.4%) 84.00 (±0.1%)
428
Faroe Islands, Denmark
187 (±0.1%) 6.277 (±0.9%) 79.23 (±0.1%)
392
Fujian, China
296 (±0.2%) 4.669 (±0.9%) 30.36 (±0.2%)
384
Shaanxi, China
953394 (±3641.3%) 391.513 (±254.3%) 1963.27 (±387.6%)
365
Hebei, China
338 (±0.3%) 5.899 (±2.5%) 34.60 (±0.7%)
365
Mauritius
342 (±0.2%) 7.722 (±1.7%) 89.55 (±0.2%)
364
Eritrea
39 (±0.4%) 6.889 (±2.0%) 90.44 (±0.2%)
340
Gibraltar, United Kingdom
162 (±0.9%) 10.909 (±3.5%) 89.39 (±0.6%)
339
Isle of Man, United Kingdom
336 (±0.1%) 9.023 (±0.8%) 95.27 (±0.1%)
330
St Martin, France
40 (±0.5%) 9.656 (±2.3%) 88.79 (±0.3%)
311
Mongolia
87 (±28.2%) 20.604 (±12.8%) 111.79 (±7.3%)
275
Cambodia
396 (±9.2%) 50.915 (±6.7%) 164.51 (±6.4%)
271
Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
263 (±0.1%) 6.873 (±1.2%) 87.40 (±0.1%)
264
Liaoning, China
126 (±0.5%) 4.818 (±2.1%) 30.11 (±0.5%)
261
Inner Mongolia, China
259 (±0.7%) 23.984 (±1.8%) 76.31 (±1.1%)
258
Guangxi, China
254 (±0.0%) 5.289 (±0.4%) 31.46 (±0.1%)
246
Bhutan
3940 (±55.2%) 84.266 (±9.3%) 403.11 (±11.0%)
234
Tianjin, China
138 (±0.4%) 5.603 (±1.3%) 32.98 (±0.3%)
231
Tasmania, Australia
230 (±0.2%) 11.008 (±1.2%) 94.07 (±0.2%)
208
Cayman Islands, United Kingdom
211 (±0.6%) 22.298 (±1.7%) 121.52 (±0.5%)
206
Yunnan, China
1659 (±861.1%) 352.914 (±246.1%) 995.28 (±519.5%)
194
New Brunswick, Canada
119 (±0.6%) 7.038 (±2.1%) 86.83 (±0.2%)
192
Curacao, Netherlands
16 (±1.2%) 9.179 (±3.2%) 84.39 (±0.4%)
185
Barbados
91 (±0.7%) 10.968 (±2.6%) 89.81 (±0.4%)
181
Monaco
97 (±0.3%) 8.468 (±1.3%) 86.43 (±0.2%)
178
Bermuda, United Kingdom
158 (±0.6%) 17.608 (±2.3%) 102.97 (±0.6%)
171
Hainan, China
170 (±0.1%) 5.165 (±0.9%) 31.81 (±0.2%)
170
Gansu, China
92 (±0.7%) 4.434 (±2.2%) 31.01 (±0.4%)
157
Jilin, China
93 (±0.5%) 4.141 (±2.0%) 33.81 (±0.3%)
147
Guizhou, China
147 (±0.1%) 4.472 (±1.0%) 34.71 (±0.2%)
145
Brunei
141 (±0.1%) 7.266 (±1.2%) 76.36 (±0.1%)
140
Seychelles
11 (±0.5%) 7.817 (±2.8%) 77.73 (±0.3%)
113
Australian Capital Territory, Australia
110 (±0.2%) 6.774 (±2.0%) 84.61 (±0.2%)
111
Liechtenstein
93 (±1.3%) 7.667 (±311568085.5%) 80.87 (±785389897.6%)
95
Antigua and Barbuda
126 (±5.4%) 39.064 (±5.1%) 168.16 (±2.6%)
75
Ningxia, China
75 (±0.1%) 5.648 (±0.8%) 33.46 (±0.2%)
66
British Virgin Islands, United Kingdom
556023 (±826.0%) 98.072 (±45.0%) 600.70 (±54.3%)
64
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
89 (±5.0%) 44.360 (±3.9%) 177.60 (±2.5%)
57
Prince Edward Island, Canada
151 (±62.0%) 92.120 (±25.0%) 275.52 (±39.2%)
46
Macau, China
46 (±0.7%) 14.440 (±3.2%) 69.28 (±1.2%)
33
Northern Territory, Australia
31 (±0.5%) 7.528 (±3.6%) 86.57 (±0.4%)
32
Fiji
35 (±6.5%) 45.641 (±8.6%) 111.99 (±6.1%)
28
Bonaire - Sint Eustatius and Saba, Netherlands
1028679 (±1142.4%) 219.923 (±51.8%) 1242.22 (±75.4%)
27
Saint Lucia
25 (±1.7%) 28.293 (±4.7%) 92.55 (±2.3%)
26
New Caledonia, France
21 (±0.9%) 7.913 (±7.5%) 82.85 (±0.8%)
24
Grenada
24 (±0.4%) 14.909 (±2.0%) 93.11 (±0.5%)
23
Laos
20 (±0.5%) 8.508 (±4.1%) 89.45 (±0.5%)
18
Qinghai, China
18 (±0.1%) 3.607 (±1.7%) 29.22 (±0.3%)

For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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