Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People in the US by numbers
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 500 , between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 9999, between 10000 and 49999, between 50000 and 99999, above 100000.
Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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Actualisation date: Thu Apr 15 08:29:13 UTC 2021
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| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_inf. | infected_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 10675 Matanuska-Susitna, Alaska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 67.141 (±67.4%) | 412.39 (±44.3%) |
| 9481 Cullman, Alabama | fiterr (±err) |  |  | fiterr (±err) | fiterr (±err) |
| 9091 Cole, Missouri | 13889 (±54.5%) |  |  | 52.790 (±29.3%) | 325.46 (±12.3%) |
| 8785 Chaves, New Mexico | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 230.031 (±120.0%) | 1341.36 (±168.4%) |
| 8562 Cabell, West Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 212.711 (±138.0%) | 1216.44 (±190.1%) |
| 6404 Carter, Tennessee | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 170.656 (±90.3%) | 839.22 (±121.8%) |
| 6275 McCracken, Kentucky | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 252.981 (±146.1%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 5230 Benton, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 243.682 (±134.5%) | 1370.76 (±190.3%) |
| 5064 Webster, Iowa | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 234.878 (±88.8%) | 1287.50 (±125.0%) |
| 5053 Washington, Ohio | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 179.803 (±193.1%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 4284 Warren, Mississippi | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 199.235 (±135.6%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 4232 Branch, Michigan | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 262.173 (±110.6%) | 1552.71 (±159.2%) |
| 4085 Bedford, Pennsylvania | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 188.909 (±128.2%) | 1181.78 (±174.6%) |
| 3984 Defiance, Ohio | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 226.082 (±158.1%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 3910 TriCounty, Utah | 103084 (±61.3%) |  |  | 100.783 (±8.1%) | 565.93 (±8.1%) |
| 3846 Brown, Ohio | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 196.680 (±153.8%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 3760 Boone, Arkansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 258.535 (±158.1%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 3751 Huntington, Indiana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 202.160 (±146.4%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 3739 Whitley, Indiana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 179.381 (±122.2%) | 1041.30 (±161.3%) |
| 3677 Matagorda, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | fiterr (±err) | fiterr (±err) |
| 3650 Cooke, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 191.415 (±74.5%) | 1106.61 (±100.0%) |
| 3634 Montgomery, Illinois | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 180.612 (±134.2%) | 889.71 (±183.5%) |
| 3526 Steele, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 304.215 (±168.3%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 3368 Wood, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 245.701 (±136.9%) | 1357.02 (±193.9%) |
| 3335 Knox, Kentucky | 7854 (±73.4%) |  |  | 88.501 (±19.8%) | 421.61 (±18.9%) |
| 3287 Clinton, Pennsylvania | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 178.745 (±160.8%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 3246 Carlton, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 195.830 (±96.1%) | 1181.42 (±130.6%) |
| 3211 Jackson, Arkansas | 12743 (±8.9%) |  |  | 67.633 (±2.5%) | 398.31 (±1.7%) |
| 3128 Perry, Illinois | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 185.573 (±61.2%) | 1085.17 (±81.6%) |
| 3093 Sheridan, Wyoming | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 243.841 (±131.4%) | 1462.44 (±187.5%) |
| 3041 Hopkins, Texas | 5877 (±94.2%) |  |  | 61.811 (±36.7%) | 356.96 (±20.9%) |
| 2993 Latah, Idaho | 3605 (±39.4%) |  |  | 50.834 (±23.1%) | 318.43 (±8.9%) |
| 2969 Taylor, Kentucky | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 204.833 (±133.7%) | 1162.69 (±182.7%) |
| 2942 Wayne, Tennessee | 2033 (±5.9%) |  |  | 28.813 (±13.5%) | 240.45 (±1.9%) |
| 2878 Perry, Ohio | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 205.529 (±132.9%) | 1213.74 (±182.2%) |
| 2783 Sevier, Arkansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 200.012 (±113.1%) | 785.22 (±175.5%) |
| 2780 Hockley, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 178.695 (±93.5%) | 890.66 (±127.1%) |
| 2771 Audrain, Missouri | 1347072 (±75.3%) |  |  | 175.876 (±5.6%) | 951.61 (±7.4%) |
| 2742 Washington, Missouri | 3748 (±40.5%) |  |  | 58.067 (±18.8%) | 337.16 (±9.6%) |
| 2735 Tioga, Pennsylvania | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 168.162 (±142.8%) | 1053.13 (±187.4%) |
| 2669 Le Sueur, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 304.175 (±152.6%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 2639 Hawaii, Hawaii | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 222.218 (±135.9%) | 1037.25 (±198.1%) |
| 2608 Delta, Colorado | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 155.531 (±181.0%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 2556 Crawford, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 134.304 (±68.5%) | 674.93 (±84.0%) |
| 2552 Jerome, Idaho | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 167.911 (±53.5%) | 794.58 (±72.8%) |
| 2551 Dickinson, Michigan | 2609 (±15.4%) |  |  | 31.864 (±16.4%) | 309.76 (±2.1%) |
| 2502 Pulaski, Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 175.258 (±129.1%) | 1027.09 (±169.4%) |
| 2461 Anson, North Carolina | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 197.918 (±131.0%) | 877.88 (±190.5%) |
| 2365 McDonald, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 158.089 (±76.7%) | 563.02 (±118.8%) |
| 2266 Adams, Ohio | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 204.131 (±126.1%) | 1255.49 (±174.2%) |
| 2176 Jackson, Iowa | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 240.046 (±90.6%) | 1413.76 (±128.3%) |
| 2134 Rolette, North Dakota | 2487 (±21.9%) |  |  | 34.736 (±18.8%) | 317.13 (±3.0%) |
| 2119 Sumner, Kansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 111.833 (±84.6%) | 591.65 (±92.7%) |
| 2095 Brooke, West Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 142.942 (±92.2%) | 853.81 (±112.5%) |
| 2067 Montague, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 105.805 (±88.6%) | 585.79 (±92.7%) |
| 2031 Kingfisher, Oklahoma | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 147.351 (±67.3%) | 724.41 (±86.4%) |
| 2019 Henry, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 294.187 (±181.0%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 1960 Ray, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 171.657 (±124.1%) | 857.54 (±166.7%) |
| 1954 O’Brien, Iowa | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 166.347 (±58.2%) | 871.27 (±76.3%) |
| 1947 Coos, Oregon | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 242.322 (±65.3%) | 1445.10 (±92.8%) |
| 1934 McCreary, Kentucky | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 190.656 (±166.0%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 1914 Cooper, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 156.301 (±68.9%) | 769.92 (±90.4%) |
| 1879 Johnson, Kentucky | 4428 (±131.3%) |  |  | 67.701 (±39.7%) | 389.70 (±26.2%) |
| 1875 Roosevelt, New Mexico | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 254.530 (±114.8%) | 1500.76 (±164.3%) |
| 1872 Hampton, South Carolina | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 210.946 (±162.5%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 1849 Freestone, Texas | 1270 (±5.1%) |  |  | 59.005 (±3.3%) | 286.66 (±1.8%) |
| 1820 Ste. Genevieve, Missouri | 2674 (±50.4%) |  |  | 49.342 (±26.2%) | 333.66 (±9.7%) |
| 1793 Stone, Mississippi | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 156.167 (±63.6%) | 745.37 (±84.3%) |
| 1779 Gurabo, Puerto Rico | 3832 (±6.1%) |  |  | 77.559 (±1.9%) | 394.80 (±1.5%) |
| 1740 Gem, Idaho | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 211.029 (±97.0%) | 1181.14 (±133.6%) |
| 1721 Warren, Illinois | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 196.396 (±38.3%) | 1087.56 (±51.9%) |
| 1714 Hancock, Illinois | 4132 (±65.7%) |  |  | 63.224 (±22.7%) | 371.81 (±13.4%) |
| 1681 Ford, Illinois | 3197 (±92.6%) |  |  | 51.640 (±36.3%) | 359.11 (±15.2%) |
| 1663 Mason, Michigan | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 203.996 (±120.4%) | 1155.75 (±164.4%) |
| 1656 Edgar, Illinois | 2484 (±7.7%) |  |  | 42.118 (±4.1%) | 339.71 (±1.1%) |
| 1644 Howard, Arkansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 190.977 (±103.6%) | 850.10 (±149.4%) |
| 1642 Washington, Alabama | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 214.420 (±133.5%) | 927.71 (±199.7%) |
| 1635 Osage, Missouri | 1505 (±25.2%) |  |  | 38.715 (±22.0%) | 305.17 (±4.4%) |
| 1622 Washington, Illinois | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 252.142 (±155.7%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 1621 Mayaguez, Puerto Rico | 4247 (±19.0%) |  |  | 96.876 (±5.2%) | 429.87 (±5.5%) |
| 1602 Hamilton, Florida | 1521 (±16.7%) |  |  | 69.406 (±14.0%) | 220.23 (±11.8%) |
| 1593 Macon, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 76.967 (±56.0%) | 426.63 (±44.0%) |
| 1587 Lincoln, Montana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 202.424 (±121.0%) | 1167.83 (±165.0%) |
| 1585 Brantley, Georgia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 156.480 (±56.2%) | 724.44 (±75.5%) |
| 1559 Wright, Missouri | 1173 (±24.4%) |  |  | 41.892 (±23.5%) | 285.17 (±5.6%) |
| 1545 Canovanas, Puerto Rico | 1986 (±4.3%) |  |  | 68.763 (±1.9%) | 332.74 (±1.4%) |
| 1527 Madison, Iowa | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 227.134 (±114.4%) | 1253.24 (±160.0%) |
| 1509 Fillmore, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 242.238 (±138.8%) | 1475.30 (±198.7%) |
| 1436 Parke, Indiana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 93.557 (±52.4%) | 531.64 (±49.8%) |
| 1381 Lawrence, Kentucky | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 175.288 (±154.3%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 1373 Brooks, Georgia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 192.932 (±102.9%) | 797.56 (±153.9%) |
| 1342 Gogebic, Michigan | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 252.063 (±110.2%) | 1492.00 (±157.6%) |
| 1338 Bandera, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 223.433 (±137.8%) | 1221.14 (±192.0%) |
| 1336 Roberts, South Dakota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 140.544 (±65.9%) | 712.50 (±82.2%) |
| 1330 Calhoun, Iowa | 1680 (±5.9%) |  |  | 38.733 (±4.8%) | 311.00 (±1.0%) |
| 1303 Franklin, Florida | 828 (±4.7%) |  |  | 28.388 (±11.9%) | 223.32 (±1.8%) |
| 1282 Lincoln, Oregon | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 205.064 (±135.9%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 1258 Dallas, Missouri | 1093 (±33.7%) |  |  | 51.511 (±21.6%) | 306.65 (±8.5%) |
| 1224 Little River, Arkansas | 1043 (±3.1%) |  |  | 56.360 (±2.2%) | 278.25 (±1.1%) |
| 1219 McKenzie, North Dakota | 1468 (±22.3%) |  |  | 45.352 (±16.8%) | 301.79 (±4.9%) |
| 1176 Custer, Montana | 1565 (±5.5%) |  |  | 43.369 (±3.4%) | 324.41 (±0.9%) |
| 1169 West Carroll, Louisiana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 245.086 (±90.2%) | 1280.26 (±128.5%) |
| 1128 Pulaski, Indiana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 223.803 (±88.3%) | 1368.79 (±124.5%) |
| 1123 East Carroll, Louisiana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 169.780 (±71.7%) | 622.51 (±111.2%) |
| 1106 Ochiltree, Texas | 187788 (±93.5%) |  |  | 141.445 (±8.8%) | 760.59 (±10.8%) |
| 1102 Dawson, Montana | 1660 (±4.2%) |  |  | 43.723 (±2.3%) | 333.31 (±0.7%) |
| 1100 Mercer, North Dakota | 1189 (±14.6%) |  |  | 34.222 (±16.2%) | 298.12 (±2.4%) |
| 1094 Kodiak Island, Alaska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 171.703 (±20.3%) | 1104.83 (±27.2%) |
| 1091 Yellow Medicine, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 103.758 (±42.3%) | 530.70 (±44.6%) |
| 1079 Houston, Tennessee | 1042 (±34.4%) |  |  | 48.186 (±25.6%) | 296.18 (±8.7%) |
| 1077 Ripley, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 223.926 (±118.9%) | 1246.58 (±165.7%) |
| 1048 Marion, Kansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 235.540 (±119.7%) | 1437.54 (±170.5%) |
| 1047 Benson, North Dakota | 1661 (±3.0%) |  |  | 58.984 (±1.6%) | 312.25 (±0.9%) |
| 978 Swift, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 188.222 (±62.4%) | 1094.71 (±83.5%) |
| 976 Brewster, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 190.648 (±24.9%) | 1050.32 (±33.4%) |
| 975 Cloud, Kansas | 1147 (±22.9%) |  |  | 33.863 (±19.1%) | 321.14 (±2.9%) |
| 974 Juana Diaz, Puerto Rico | 117745 (±85.1%) |  |  | 156.382 (±7.9%) | 820.74 (±10.2%) |
| 965 Marshall, Illinois | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 247.854 (±153.4%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 964 Doniphan, Kansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 141.151 (±80.0%) | 727.12 (±99.4%) |
| 950 Major, Oklahoma | 2277 (±91.6%) |  |  | 59.871 (±31.6%) | 371.38 (±17.2%) |
| 938 Arenac, Michigan | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 235.347 (±121.8%) | 1466.63 (±175.1%) |
| 933 Glades, Florida | 1455 (±40.2%) |  |  | 88.199 (±21.6%) | 286.65 (±24.8%) |
| 905 Allendale, South Carolina | 1959 (±145.2%) |  |  | 119.696 (±48.1%) | 419.40 (±66.6%) |
| 888 Prairie, Arkansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 154.488 (±72.4%) | 740.78 (±95.5%) |
| 875 Hutchinson, South Dakota | 1121 (±36.3%) |  |  | 43.997 (±23.5%) | 320.48 (±6.6%) |
| 872 Buena Vista, Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 202.091 (±125.1%) | 1146.58 (±170.4%) |
| 868 Yoakum, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 228.144 (±86.9%) | 1253.11 (±121.6%) |
| 864 McLean, Kentucky | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 218.737 (±124.7%) | 1228.88 (±173.0%) |
| 862 Sullivan, Missouri | 8754 (±42.3%) |  |  | 121.398 (±7.8%) | 558.26 (±9.4%) |
| 856 Carbon, Montana | 1642 (±54.7%) |  |  | 58.968 (±23.7%) | 345.20 (±12.4%) |
| 839 Holt, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 212.637 (±28.4%) | 1267.26 (±39.3%) |
| 799 Davis, Iowa | 36923 (±66.2%) |  |  | 122.035 (±8.1%) | 641.63 (±9.4%) |
| 785 Rains, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 139.697 (±57.4%) | 769.36 (±69.7%) |
| 760 Hamilton, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 140.441 (±53.0%) | 670.39 (±67.6%) |
| 758 Coamo, Puerto Rico | 20624 (±29.8%) |  |  | 117.920 (±3.8%) | 624.14 (±4.2%) |
| 747 Merrick, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 184.209 (±73.3%) | 1034.69 (±97.6%) |
| 738 Coleman, Texas | 3124 (±27.0%) |  |  | 87.786 (±5.7%) | 463.38 (±5.2%) |
| 723 Lake, Colorado | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 315.645 (±198.6%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 715 Stillwater, Montana | 751 (±17.1%) |  |  | 40.394 (±13.3%) | 311.11 (±3.0%) |
| 712 Phillips, Kansas | 2733 (±59.3%) |  |  | 75.829 (±16.4%) | 407.19 (±12.7%) |
| 710 Franklin, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 189.349 (±107.2%) | 878.55 (±151.6%) |
| 704 Anasco, Puerto Rico | 2194496 (±198.0%) |  |  | 167.399 (±11.6%) | 966.71 (±15.0%) |
| 702 Brule, South Dakota | 894 (±8.7%) |  |  | 42.067 (±6.9%) | 304.58 (±1.7%) |
| 701 Worth, Iowa | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 171.749 (±57.5%) | 940.80 (±75.2%) |
| 695 Union, Indiana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 241.490 (±108.9%) | 1471.90 (±155.8%) |
| 689 Coal, Oklahoma | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 204.044 (±15.5%) | 1228.11 (±21.2%) |
| 679 Aleutians West, Alaska | 133 (±3.3%) |  |  | 35.610 (±6.9%) | 207.42 (±1.6%) |
| 677 Ciales, Puerto Rico | 2553 (±16.7%) |  |  | 94.512 (±4.2%) | 446.26 (±4.2%) |
| 676 Searcy, Arkansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 265.574 (±159.4%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 675 Red River, Texas | 12255 (±106.9%) |  |  | 163.592 (±15.5%) | 740.09 (±21.3%) |
| 656 Rooks, Kansas | 1022 (±45.0%) |  |  | 55.297 (±20.3%) | 342.87 (±9.4%) |
| 655 Crawford, Georgia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 176.116 (±83.4%) | 780.77 (±118.1%) |
| 646 Hickory, Missouri | 591 (±2.8%) |  |  | 45.117 (±2.2%) | 298.79 (±0.6%) |
| 641 Orange, Vermont | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 168.740 (±195.0%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 633 Moody, South Dakota | 938 (±4.3%) |  |  | 50.330 (±2.4%) | 323.88 (±0.9%) |
| 618 Sanders, Montana | 23135 (±52.1%) |  |  | 103.930 (±6.5%) | 583.93 (±6.7%) |
| 613 Sabine, Texas | 105000 (±136.9%) |  |  | 156.739 (±12.1%) | 832.98 (±15.5%) |
| 605 Jack, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 125.347 (±36.7%) | 595.15 (±44.5%) |
| 590 Shelby, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | fiterr (±err) | fiterr (±err) |
| 572 Graham, North Carolina | 360 (±1.5%) |  |  | 38.102 (±1.9%) | 263.11 (±0.4%) |
| 561 Mitchell, Kansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 192.994 (±152.8%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 559 Mackinac, Michigan | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 253.498 (±102.1%) | 1523.89 (±146.8%) |
| 554 Big Stone, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 271.258 (±122.5%) | 1642.07 (±178.6%) |
| 553 Luquillo, Puerto Rico | 667 (±5.6%) |  |  | 73.142 (±2.3%) | 344.99 (±1.7%) |
| 538 Hancock, Tennessee | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 183.278 (±26.9%) | 956.51 (±36.2%) |
| 518 Wayne, Iowa | 723 (±6.4%) |  |  | 55.946 (±3.2%) | 329.55 (±1.5%) |
| 505 Deuel, South Dakota | 712 (±43.1%) |  |  | 52.125 (±24.0%) | 322.51 (±9.8%) |
| 500 Sheridan, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 214.976 (±24.8%) | 1297.45 (±34.5%) |
| 496 Chouteau, Montana | 456 (±2.1%) |  |  | 34.096 (±1.9%) | 314.21 (±0.3%) |
| 476 Penuelas, Puerto Rico | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 190.635 (±19.5%) | 1127.52 (±26.2%) |
| 465 Echols, Georgia | 328 (±7.0%) |  |  | 52.636 (±11.3%) | 152.42 (±6.3%) |
| 463 Aurora, South Dakota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 249.696 (±90.1%) | 1460.49 (±128.3%) |
| 453 Webster, West Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 168.538 (±11.5%) | 1029.13 (±14.9%) |
| 450 Douglas, South Dakota | 560 (±1.8%) |  |  | 46.706 (±1.2%) | 310.05 (±0.4%) |
| 445 Atchison, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 219.717 (±134.0%) | 1233.97 (±186.0%) |
| 439 Putnam, Illinois | 660 (±6.5%) |  |  | 52.542 (±3.1%) | 338.95 (±1.3%) |
| 436 Ontonagon, Michigan | 348 (±10.9%) |  |  | 28.682 (±15.2%) | 300.47 (±1.5%) |
| 421 Sheridan, Montana | 400 (±1.3%) |  |  | 26.696 (±1.7%) | 312.84 (±0.1%) |
| 402 Nance, Nebraska | 504 (±3.3%) |  |  | 38.002 (±2.5%) | 316.84 (±0.5%) |
| 401 Piscataquis, Maine | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 175.272 (±16.0%) | 1120.20 (±21.5%) |
| 398 Trinity, California | 383 (±4.0%) |  |  | 31.278 (±3.1%) | 330.93 (±0.4%) |
| 385 Ballard, Kentucky | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 272.787 (±91.9%) | 1644.90 (±133.7%) |
| 382 Red Lake, Minnesota | 1920 (±66.0%) |  |  | 74.302 (±16.2%) | 422.25 (±12.1%) |
| 377 Reagan, Texas | 30552 (±148.2%) |  |  | 135.905 (±17.0%) | 702.31 (±20.6%) |
| 375 Wirt, West Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 73.277 (±75.6%) | 443.71 (±55.9%) |
| 366 Sullivan, Pennsylvania | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 127.820 (±173.8%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 364 Marshall, South Dakota | 1660 (±191.8%) |  |  | 73.919 (±46.5%) | 423.33 (±34.6%) |
| 357 Stanton, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 199.391 (±67.2%) | 1170.91 (±91.4%) |
| 356 Hand, South Dakota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 234.312 (±32.5%) | 1429.49 (±46.2%) |
| 353 Phillips, Colorado | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 241.272 (±117.0%) | 1479.41 (±167.8%) |
| 345 Nome, Alaska | 644 (±4.7%) |  |  | 64.428 (±2.0%) | 344.30 (±1.2%) |
| 344 Sitka, Alaska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 236.832 (±17.2%) | 1418.22 (±24.4%) |
| 334 Boise, Idaho | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 182.945 (±22.7%) | 980.41 (±30.1%) |
| 333 Adams, Idaho | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 175.959 (±112.6%) | 1013.55 (±147.8%) |
| 324 Hettinger, North Dakota | 385 (±2.6%) |  |  | 43.641 (±2.0%) | 304.57 (±0.5%) |
| 317 Renville, North Dakota | 426 (±4.1%) |  |  | 44.564 (±2.8%) | 313.63 (±0.8%) |
| 316 Collingsworth, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 118.350 (±31.9%) | 742.96 (±35.7%) |
| 304 Pope, Illinois | 264826 (±132.2%) |  |  | 146.310 (±9.1%) | 841.98 (±11.2%) |
| 298 Rawlins, Kansas | 312 (±2.9%) |  |  | 38.105 (±2.6%) | 304.50 (±0.5%) |
| 295 Patillas, Puerto Rico | 14859 (±57.0%) |  |  | 133.161 (±6.3%) | 697.65 (±7.6%) |
| 293 Fisher, Texas | 625 (±8.1%) |  |  | 76.072 (±2.9%) | 368.82 (±2.3%) |
| 279 Fallon, Montana | 289 (±1.3%) |  |  | 22.818 (±2.3%) | 308.89 (±0.1%) |
| 269 Adams, North Dakota | 223 (±1.4%) |  |  | 30.515 (±1.8%) | 300.66 (±0.2%) |
| 267 Calhoun, West Virginia | 78727 (±134.0%) |  |  | 146.446 (±10.4%) | 818.66 (±12.9%) |
| 262 Haakon, South Dakota | 376 (±3.7%) |  |  | 46.243 (±2.2%) | 326.25 (±0.7%) |
| 259 Edwards, Kansas | 1176 (±15.1%) |  |  | 74.821 (±4.1%) | 408.73 (±3.1%) |
| 256 Golden Valley, North Dakota | 252 (±2.2%) |  |  | 43.764 (±1.9%) | 291.42 (±0.5%) |
| 254 Hitchcock, Nebraska | 319 (±3.1%) |  |  | 43.905 (±1.6%) | 338.00 (±0.5%) |
| 248 Clark, Kansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 308.794 (±29.0%) | 1855.31 (±42.8%) |
| 243 McPherson, South Dakota | 344 (±5.7%) |  |  | 51.368 (±3.0%) | 331.05 (±1.2%) |
| 239 Clay, Georgia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 166.337 (±68.1%) | 586.08 (±107.5%) |
| 238 Kiowa, Kansas | 209 (±3.5%) |  |  | 45.481 (±2.5%) | 310.49 (±0.7%) |
| 232 Essex, Vermont | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 167.284 (±151.3%) | 1034.35 (±197.3%) |
| 225 Dillingham, Alaska | 2808 (±72.7%) |  |  | 125.170 (±11.3%) | 604.97 (±13.5%) |
| 218 Brown, Nebraska | 295 (±3.2%) |  |  | 41.527 (±2.4%) | 312.07 (±0.6%) |
| 205 Costilla, Colorado | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 315.025 (±176.3%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 197 Daniels, Montana | 161 (±1.8%) |  |  | 27.413 (±2.3%) | 312.17 (±0.2%) |
| 189 Jeff Davis, Texas | 40725 (±189.0%) |  |  | 128.946 (±16.1%) | 732.83 (±18.8%) |
| 181 Gosper, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 235.064 (±94.3%) | 1295.58 (±132.6%) |
| 179 Elk, Kansas | 388 (±10.3%) |  |  | 55.705 (±3.2%) | 382.61 (±1.6%) |
| 169 Mora, New Mexico | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 134.656 (±16.3%) | 839.75 (±19.5%) |
| 131 Campbell, South Dakota | 113 (±0.6%) |  |  | 25.802 (±1.2%) | 280.00 (±0.1%) |
| 119 Vieques, Puerto Rico | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 189.869 (±64.5%) | 1065.51 (±86.2%) |
| 115 Sheridan, North Dakota | 113 (±2.6%) |  |  | 33.754 (±2.9%) | 297.73 (±0.4%) |
| 112 Garden, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 213.596 (±36.1%) | 1275.09 (±49.9%) |
| 104 Greeley, Kansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 224.052 (±50.5%) | 1342.78 (±70.6%) |
| 94 Harding, South Dakota | 87 (±1.4%) |  |  | 22.213 (±3.0%) | 294.84 (±0.2%) |
| 86 Prince of Wales-Hyder, Alaska | 202 (±37.6%) |  |  | 82.512 (±13.2%) | 370.55 (±12.0%) |
| 83 McMullen, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 277.223 (±52.8%) | 1605.31 (±75.8%) |
| 80 Terrell, Texas | 129 (±10.1%) |  |  | 37.380 (±4.8%) | 350.63 (±1.1%) |
| 78 Garfield, Montana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 266.242 (±44.1%) | 1603.29 (±63.7%) |
| 73 Yakutat, Alaska | 57 (±1.8%) |  |  | 42.450 (±2.2%) | 253.15 (±0.6%) |
| 57 Jackson, Colorado | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 218.976 (±52.1%) | 1187.94 (±72.0%) |
| 55 Gilliam, Oregon | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 251.266 (±18.0%) | 1521.06 (±25.8%) |
| 53 Hooker, Nebraska | 62 (±3.2%) |  |  | 38.860 (±3.1%) | 296.23 (±0.6%) |
| 46 San Juan, Colorado | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 231.234 (±18.9%) | 1387.67 (±26.7%) |
| 35 Banner, Nebraska | 2972 (±156.6%) |  |  | 106.636 (±16.6%) | 616.80 (±17.4%) |
| 32 Culebra, Puerto Rico | 18 (±0.9%) |  |  | 17.004 (±4.3%) | 198.51 (±0.4%) |
| 30 McPherson, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 304.412 (±30.1%) | 1858.22 (±44.7%) |
For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.