Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People in the US by numbers
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 500 , between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 9999, between 10000 and 49999, between 50000 and 99999, above 100000.
Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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Actualisation date: Tue Jun 15 08:11:19 UTC 2021
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| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_inf. | infected_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 1883 Ford, Illinois | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 51.540 (±80.7%) | 358.83 (±33.8%) |
| 1763 Edgar, Illinois | 2482 (±86.9%) |  |  | 42.101 (±46.2%) | 339.68 (±12.6%) |
| 1646 Osage, Missouri | 1505 (±51.5%) |  |  | 38.715 (±45.0%) | 305.17 (±9.1%) |
| 1389 Calhoun, Iowa | 1679 (±39.2%) |  |  | 38.722 (±32.1%) | 310.99 (±6.6%) |
| 1205 Custer, Montana | 1565 (±17.6%) |  |  | 43.365 (±11.0%) | 324.41 (±3.0%) |
| 1162 Mercer, North Dakota | 1189 (±29.0%) |  |  | 34.222 (±32.3%) | 298.12 (±4.7%) |
| 1103 Dawson, Montana | 1660 (±4.2%) |  |  | 43.722 (±2.3%) | 333.31 (±0.7%) |
| 1005 Cloud, Kansas | 1147 (±51.4%) |  |  | 33.861 (±42.9%) | 321.14 (±6.6%) |
| 661 Hickory, Missouri | 591 (±2.8%) |  |  | 45.117 (±2.2%) | 298.79 (±0.6%) |
| 543 Webster, West Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 168.534 (±11.5%) | 1029.10 (±14.9%) |
| 530 Sheridan, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 214.976 (±24.8%) | 1297.45 (±34.5%) |
| 516 Chouteau, Montana | 456 (±2.1%) |  |  | 34.096 (±1.9%) | 314.21 (±0.3%) |
| 424 Sheridan, Montana | 400 (±1.3%) |  |  | 26.696 (±1.7%) | 312.84 (±0.1%) |
| 416 Trinity, California | 383 (±64.8%) |  |  | 31.274 (±50.4%) | 330.92 (±6.8%) |
| 385 Reagan, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 240.749 (±120.5%) | 1326.48 (±169.6%) |
| 369 Boise, Idaho | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 183.009 (±22.7%) | 980.85 (±30.1%) |
| 334 Rawlins, Kansas | 312 (±2.9%) |  |  | 38.105 (±2.6%) | 304.50 (±0.5%) |
| 332 Hettinger, North Dakota | 385 (±2.6%) |  |  | 43.641 (±2.0%) | 304.57 (±0.5%) |
| 331 Collingsworth, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | fiterr (±err) | fiterr (±err) |
| 288 Fallon, Montana | 289 (±1.3%) |  |  | 22.818 (±2.3%) | 308.89 (±0.1%) |
| 273 Bath, Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 186.884 (±9.3%) | 1176.92 (±12.6%) |
| 270 Adams, North Dakota | 223 (±1.4%) |  |  | 30.515 (±1.8%) | 300.66 (±0.2%) |
| 266 Haakon, South Dakota | 376 (±3.7%) |  |  | 46.243 (±2.2%) | 326.25 (±0.7%) |
| 255 Hitchcock, Nebraska | 319 (±111.0%) |  |  | 43.905 (±58.9%) | 338.00 (±17.4%) |
| 220 Brown, Nebraska | 295 (±3.2%) |  |  | 41.527 (±2.4%) | 312.07 (±0.6%) |
| 197 Daniels, Montana | 161 (±1.8%) |  |  | 27.413 (±2.3%) | 312.17 (±0.2%) |
| 193 Jeff Davis, Texas | 40893 (±189.2%) |  |  | 128.995 (±16.1%) | 733.14 (±18.8%) |
| 173 Mora, New Mexico | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 134.667 (±16.3%) | 839.83 (±19.5%) |
| 131 Campbell, South Dakota | 113 (±0.6%) |  |  | 25.802 (±1.2%) | 280.00 (±0.1%) |
| 122 Sheridan, North Dakota | 113 (±13.4%) |  |  | 33.753 (±15.2%) | 297.73 (±2.2%) |
| 114 Garden, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 235.599 (±114.5%) | 1390.96 (±161.4%) |
| 104 Greeley, Kansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 223.880 (±50.5%) | 1341.85 (±70.5%) |
| 97 Harding, South Dakota | 87 (±1.4%) |  |  | 22.213 (±3.0%) | 294.84 (±0.2%) |
| 89 Yakutat, Alaska | 63 (±9.3%) |  |  | 48.525 (±9.1%) | 259.49 (±3.2%) |
| 84 McMullen, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 277.336 (±52.9%) | 1605.91 (±75.9%) |
| 80 Garfield, Montana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 266.242 (±44.1%) | 1603.29 (±63.7%) |
| 75 Gilliam, Oregon | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 251.419 (±18.0%) | 1521.90 (±25.8%) |
| 65 Jackson, Colorado | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 219.053 (±52.2%) | 1188.51 (±72.0%) |
| 54 Hooker, Nebraska | 62 (±28.0%) |  |  | 38.860 (±26.8%) | 296.23 (±5.4%) |
| 39 Culebra, Puerto Rico | 18 (±0.9%) |  |  | 17.004 (±4.3%) | 198.51 (±0.4%) |
| 36 Banner, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 121.573 (±53.7%) | 703.30 (±60.7%) |
For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.