Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People in the US
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.
Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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Actualisation date: Sat Jul 11 05:12:42 UTC 2020
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| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_dead | death rate (err) | death_rate | deaths_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 23247 New York, New York | 22619 (±0.2%) |  | 11.73 (±1.1%) |  |  | 11.707 (±0.8%) | 99.48 (±0.1%) |
| 4676 Cook, Illinois | 4836 (±0.3%) |  | 6.00 (±3.2%) |  |  | 19.000 (±0.4%) | 123.66 (±0.1%) |
| 3690 Los Angeles, California | 3862 (±1.0%) |  | 5.58 (±6.8%) |  |  | 22.394 (±1.2%) | 129.99 (±0.3%) |
| 2744 Wayne, Michigan | 2694 (±0.2%) |  | 13.86 (±1.6%) |  |  | 13.845 (±0.7%) | 106.92 (±0.1%) |
| 2188 Nassau, New York | 2153 (±0.4%) |  | 5.66 (±1.1%) |  |  | 11.457 (±1.3%) | 103.69 (±0.2%) |
| 2060 Essex, New Jersey | 1878 (±0.9%) |  | 12.24 (±1.5%) |  |  | 15.272 (±2.3%) | 109.69 (±0.4%) |
| 2020 Bergen, New Jersey | 1836 (±1.1%) |  | 11.58 (±1.3%) |  |  | 16.241 (±2.6%) | 109.67 (±0.5%) |
| 1991 Suffolk, New York | 1988 (±0.3%) |  | 5.41 (±1.6%) |  |  | 14.155 (±0.9%) | 109.36 (±0.2%) |
| 1903 Middlesex, Massachusetts | 1848 (±0.4%) |  | 8.65 (±1.3%) |  |  | 14.925 (±0.9%) | 118.32 (±0.1%) |
| 1633 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | 1656 (±0.4%) |  | 7.74 (±3.2%) |  |  | 17.626 (±0.8%) | 121.42 (±0.1%) |
| 1432 Westchester, New York | 1403 (±0.4%) |  | 5.04 (±3.7%) |  |  | 12.532 (±1.3%) | 105.20 (±0.2%) |
| 1385 Hartford, Connecticut | 1369 (±0.3%) |  | 12.95 (±1.7%) |  |  | 14.730 (±0.8%) | 116.05 (±0.1%) |
| 1380 Fairfield, Connecticut | 1370 (±0.2%) |  | 9.24 (±2.1%) |  |  | 14.529 (±0.6%) | 111.34 (±0.1%) |
| 1361 Middlesex, New Jersey | 1287 (±1.4%) |  | 9.27 (±2.2%) |  |  | 18.897 (±2.6%) | 118.02 (±0.5%) |
| 1341 Union, New Jersey | 1244 (±1.0%) |  | 9.05 (±1.7%) |  |  | 16.203 (±2.4%) | 113.62 (±0.4%) |
| 1216 Passaic, New Jersey | 1121 (±1.1%) |  | 8.19 (±2.6%) |  |  | 16.436 (±2.5%) | 116.67 (±0.4%) |
| 1133 Essex, Massachusetts | 1125 (±0.3%) |  | 7.72 (±1.5%) |  |  | 16.425 (±0.6%) | 120.70 (±0.1%) |
| 1097 Oakland, Michigan | 1083 (±0.2%) |  | 10.93 (±1.8%) |  |  | 14.378 (±0.6%) | 106.13 (±0.1%) |
| 1092 Miami-Dade, Florida | 1113 (±1.7%) |  | 6.29 (±4.8%) |  |  | 22.624 (±2.1%) | 127.89 (±0.6%) |
| 1079 New Haven, Connecticut | 1085 (±0.2%) |  | 9.83 (±2.0%) |  |  | 15.551 (±0.5%) | 116.37 (±0.1%) |
| 1013 Suffolk, Massachusetts | 982 (±0.5%) |  | 5.83 (±2.6%) |  |  | 14.055 (±1.2%) | 115.78 (±0.2%) |
| 1012 Maricopa, Arizona | 1684 (±7.5%) |  | 4.29 (±15.3%) |  |  | 33.455 (±3.7%) | 168.41 (±2.3%) |
| 992 Ocean, New Jersey | 967 (±1.0%) |  | 11.94 (±2.2%) |  |  | 19.317 (±1.7%) | 119.89 (±0.4%) |
| 954 Worcester, Massachusetts | 963 (±0.2%) |  | 8.29 (±2.0%) |  |  | 16.749 (±0.4%) | 126.23 (±0.1%) |
| 923 Macomb, Michigan | 895 (±0.4%) |  | 13.85 (±1.4%) |  |  | 13.831 (±1.1%) | 107.05 (±0.2%) |
| 831 Monmouth, New Jersey | 823 (±1.3%) |  | 10.78 (±2.0%) |  |  | 20.505 (±2.1%) | 119.86 (±0.5%) |
| 822 Montgomery, Pennsylvania | 801 (±0.6%) |  | 11.49 (±2.5%) |  |  | 15.387 (±1.5%) | 118.92 (±0.2%) |
| 817 Morris, New Jersey | 732 (±1.4%) |  | 13.28 (±1.4%) |  |  | 17.008 (±3.1%) | 112.03 (±0.6%) |
| 789 Hennepin, Minnesota | 805 (±0.4%) |  | 6.05 (±4.9%) |  |  | 17.454 (±0.8%) | 126.32 (±0.1%) |
| 700 Prince George’s, Maryland | 711 (±0.3%) |  | 4.94 (±5.3%) |  |  | 17.944 (±0.6%) | 123.91 (±0.1%) |
| 690 Marion, Indiana | 698 (±0.4%) |  | 7.46 (±3.5%) |  |  | 17.733 (±0.8%) | 116.73 (±0.2%) |
| 674 Plymouth, Massachusetts | 669 (±0.5%) |  | 8.33 (±1.9%) |  |  | 16.415 (±1.1%) | 120.00 (±0.2%) |
| 672 Hampden, Massachusetts | 659 (±0.5%) |  | 11.01 (±1.8%) |  |  | 15.514 (±1.2%) | 113.66 (±0.2%) |
| 668 Rockland, New York | 657 (±0.3%) |  | 5.65 (±2.7%) |  |  | 12.294 (±1.2%) | 104.56 (±0.2%) |
| 664 Delaware, Pennsylvania | 658 (±0.5%) |  | 10.46 (±2.4%) |  |  | 15.320 (±1.2%) | 121.93 (±0.2%) |
| 639 Erie, New York | 655 (±0.4%) |  | 9.70 (±3.7%) |  |  | 17.938 (±0.8%) | 120.86 (±0.2%) |
| 632 King, Washington | 609 (±0.2%) |  | 8.02 (±2.3%) |  |  | 16.758 (±0.6%) | 98.06 (±0.1%) |
| 596 Mercer, New Jersey | 576 (±0.6%) |  | 8.99 (±2.5%) |  |  | 16.877 (±1.4%) | 119.73 (±0.2%) |
| 594 Bristol, Massachusetts | 627 (±0.6%) |  | 7.70 (±2.9%) |  |  | 20.088 (±0.9%) | 128.85 (±0.2%) |
| 593 St. Louis, Missouri | 567 (±0.6%) |  | 11.39 (±2.6%) |  |  | 16.362 (±1.4%) | 116.96 (±0.3%) |
| 578 Palm Beach, Florida | 655 (±2.4%) |  | 7.88 (±7.0%) |  |  | 26.623 (±2.3%) | 133.66 (±0.9%) |
| 571 Bucks, Pennsylvania | 570 (±0.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 14.849 (±0.7%) | 120.84 (±0.1%) |
| 568 District of Columbia, District of Columbia | 561 (±0.3%) |  | 6.81 (±3.7%) |  |  | 16.781 (±0.6%) | 120.41 (±0.1%) |
| 544 Somerset, New Jersey | 494 (±1.2%) |  | 12.21 (±1.5%) |  |  | 16.807 (±2.6%) | 113.99 (±0.5%) |
| 540 Camden, New Jersey | 558 (±1.8%) |  | 8.44 (±2.5%) |  |  | 22.369 (±2.2%) | 131.24 (±0.6%) |
| 539 Orleans, Louisiana | 523 (±0.2%) |  | 7.57 (±1.6%) |  |  | 13.098 (±0.7%) | 98.75 (±0.1%) |
| 533 Riverside, California | 529 (±1.4%) |  | 6.70 (±6.3%) |  |  | 22.639 (±1.6%) | 130.16 (±0.4%) |
| 493 Baltimore, Maryland | 517 (±0.3%) |  | 7.96 (±4.6%) |  |  | 19.601 (±0.5%) | 130.76 (±0.1%) |
| 489 Jefferson, Louisiana | 471 (±0.4%) |  | 6.55 (±3.0%) |  |  | 13.629 (±1.3%) | 102.09 (±0.2%) |
| 484 Orange, New York | 473 (±0.4%) |  | 5.08 (±2.2%) |  |  | 14.236 (±1.3%) | 106.87 (±0.2%) |
| 483 DuPage, Illinois | 493 (±0.4%) |  | 5.85 (±3.8%) |  |  | 18.760 (±0.7%) | 123.17 (±0.1%) |
| 468 Clark, Nevada | 434 (±0.8%) |  | 7.44 (±5.7%) |  |  | 19.288 (±1.5%) | 115.59 (±0.3%) |
| 446 Burlington, New Jersey | 458 (±1.4%) |  | 9.54 (±2.6%) |  |  | 20.937 (±1.9%) | 128.91 (±0.4%) |
| 436 Dallas, Texas | 517 (±2.8%) |  | 4.27 (±8.6%) |  |  | 27.542 (±2.2%) | 143.08 (±0.9%) |
| 427 Broward, Florida | 399 (±0.9%) |  | 5.84 (±4.8%) |  |  | 18.690 (±1.7%) | 115.40 (±0.4%) |
| 423 Harris, Texas | 490 (±3.7%) |  | 3.64 (±5.7%) |  |  | 26.976 (±3.2%) | 137.97 (±1.3%) |
| 415 San Diego, California | 419 (±1.2%) |  | 5.95 (±6.8%) |  |  | 22.297 (±1.5%) | 127.93 (±0.4%) |
| 402 Orange, California | 1160 (±7.0%) |  | 5.30 (±8.2%) |  |  | 38.330 (±2.4%) | 194.69 (±1.8%) |
| 398 Milwaukee, Wisconsin | 405 (±1.1%) |  | 5.76 (±7.2%) |  |  | 20.568 (±1.8%) | 117.25 (±0.4%) |
| 387 Denver, Colorado | 390 (±0.4%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 17.227 (±0.8%) | 119.80 (±0.1%) |
| 383 Cuyahoga, Ohio | 442 (±1.4%) |  | 7.40 (±5.1%) |  |  | 24.023 (±1.5%) | 135.10 (±0.5%) |
| 377 Lancaster, Pennsylvania | 358 (±0.8%) |  | 10.98 (±3.2%) |  |  | 16.231 (±1.9%) | 117.81 (±0.3%) |
| 358 Baltimore City, Maryland | 356 (±0.7%) |  | 6.51 (±4.8%) |  |  | 19.017 (±1.1%) | 126.01 (±0.2%) |
| 356 Berks, Pennsylvania | 364 (±0.9%) |  | 9.52 (±2.9%) |  |  | 15.953 (±1.9%) | 123.67 (±0.3%) |
| 349 Arapahoe, Colorado | 358 (±0.7%) |  | 7.80 (±2.4%) |  |  | 16.754 (±1.4%) | 120.05 (±0.2%) |
| 332 Chester, Pennsylvania | 330 (±0.4%) |  | 10.56 (±3.1%) |  |  | 15.715 (±0.8%) | 122.85 (±0.1%) |
| 322 Will, Illinois | 322 (±0.5%) |  | 6.69 (±5.4%) |  |  | 17.116 (±1.0%) | 114.98 (±0.2%) |
| 319 Fulton, Georgia | 363 (±1.2%) |  | 7.16 (±3.8%) |  |  | 23.205 (±1.4%) | 127.23 (±0.4%) |
| 315 Lehigh, Pennsylvania | 322 (±0.7%) |  | 9.16 (±2.4%) |  |  | 18.921 (±1.1%) | 129.96 (±0.2%) |
| 313 Pima, Arizona | 314 (±2.1%) |  | 7.51 (±9.9%) |  |  | 22.926 (±2.5%) | 130.05 (±0.7%) |
| 304 San Bernardino, California | 286 (±1.3%) |  | 5.27 (±7.9%) |  |  | 21.105 (±1.9%) | 126.01 (±0.5%) |
| 290 Genesee, Michigan | 283 (±0.2%) |  | 12.08 (±1.8%) |  |  | 12.475 (±0.8%) | 107.00 (±0.1%) |
| 281 Kane, Illinois | 322 (±1.1%) |  | 2.99 (±7.5%) |  |  | 22.140 (±1.2%) | 137.75 (±0.3%) |
| 276 East Baton Rouge, Louisiana | 272 (±0.3%) |  | 8.49 (±5.4%) |  |  | 16.140 (±0.6%) | 114.14 (±0.1%) |
| 273 Monroe, New York | 284 (±0.8%) |  | 8.14 (±4.2%) |  |  | 20.217 (±1.2%) | 120.20 (±0.3%) |
| 257 Hillsborough, New Hampshire | 290 (±2.1%) |  | 8.02 (±8.2%) |  |  | 18.644 (±2.6%) | 147.32 (±0.4%) |
| 254 Tarrant, Texas | 268 (±1.0%) |  | 3.79 (±5.6%) |  |  | 22.940 (±1.1%) | 132.26 (±0.3%) |
| 249 New Castle, Delaware | 274 (±2.0%) |  | 6.92 (±5.6%) |  |  | 22.581 (±2.3%) | 132.78 (±0.6%) |
| 248 Cobb, Georgia | 280 (±1.2%) |  | 7.38 (±3.7%) |  |  | 23.332 (±1.4%) | 127.66 (±0.4%) |
| 247 Lake, Indiana | 260 (±0.6%) |  | 6.58 (±3.2%) |  |  | 19.517 (±1.0%) | 124.58 (±0.2%) |
| 243 Caddo, Louisiana | 248 (±1.0%) |  | 10.96 (±3.8%) |  |  | 20.114 (±1.6%) | 118.77 (±0.4%) |
| 239 Mahoning, Ohio | 246 (±0.7%) |  | 14.82 (±1.4%) |  |  | 19.726 (±1.1%) | 123.05 (±0.2%) |
| 230 Ramsey, Minnesota | 273 (±1.4%) |  | 4.70 (±4.8%) |  |  | 20.868 (±1.5%) | 145.23 (±0.3%) |
| 226 Atlantic, New Jersey | 226 (±1.2%) |  | 8.38 (±2.3%) |  |  | 18.482 (±2.0%) | 131.98 (±0.3%) |
| 221 Pinellas, Florida | 1410 (±49.5%) |  | 5.61 (±44.2%) |  |  | 52.967 (±11.2%) | 248.91 (±11.9%) |
| 214 Jefferson, Colorado | 230 (±0.7%) |  | 9.55 (±3.2%) |  |  | 20.299 (±1.1%) | 125.25 (±0.3%) |
| 210 Anne Arundel, Maryland | 212 (±0.5%) |  | 5.47 (±3.9%) |  |  | 17.556 (±0.9%) | 119.67 (±0.2%) |
| 209 Summit, Ohio | 216 (±1.0%) |  | 10.85 (±2.0%) |  |  | 16.758 (±1.8%) | 128.40 (±0.3%) |
| 206 Hamilton, Ohio | 212 (±1.0%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 20.086 (±1.5%) | 125.42 (±0.3%) |
| 204 Jefferson, Kentucky | 202 (±1.1%) |  | 6.52 (±4.9%) |  |  | 19.956 (±1.9%) | 117.68 (±0.4%) |
| 194 Sussex, New Jersey | 186 (±1.4%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 17.167 (±3.2%) | 113.19 (±0.6%) |
| 193 Gloucester, New Jersey | 188 (±0.9%) |  | 8.91 (±3.2%) |  |  | 17.094 (±1.7%) | 126.97 (±0.3%) |
| 188 Onondaga, New York | 202 (±1.0%) |  | 7.16 (±7.7%) |  |  | 18.685 (±1.5%) | 133.37 (±0.3%) |
| 187 Middlesex, Connecticut | 184 (±0.7%) |  | 15.83 (±2.4%) |  |  | 17.209 (±1.3%) | 118.72 (±0.2%) |
| 186 McKinley, New Mexico | 190 (±0.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 18.580 (±1.3%) | 138.91 (±0.2%) |
| 183 St. Tammany, Louisiana | 173 (±0.5%) |  | 11.38 (±3.1%) |  |  | 14.506 (±1.3%) | 109.41 (±0.2%) |
| 182 Hillsborough, Florida | 285 (±6.8%) |  | 7.81 (±7.1%) |  |  | 33.112 (±3.5%) | 165.87 (±2.1%) |
| 179 Luzerne, Pennsylvania | 176 (±0.7%) |  | 7.32 (±2.1%) |  |  | 16.256 (±1.7%) | 116.84 (±0.3%) |
| 178 Snohomish, Washington | 167 (±0.9%) |  | 6.39 (±2.4%) |  |  | 18.365 (±2.0%) | 102.29 (±0.5%) |
| 176 Sussex, Delaware | 177 (±0.9%) |  | 4.35 (±3.5%) |  |  | 18.016 (±1.7%) | 124.04 (±0.3%) |
| 175 DeKalb, Georgia | 204 (±1.1%) |  | 4.88 (±4.8%) |  |  | 23.078 (±1.3%) | 134.01 (±0.4%) |
| 169 Henrico, Virginia | 139 (±1.2%) |  | 8.87 (±4.6%) |  |  | 13.165 (±3.8%) | 108.55 (±0.6%) |
| 167 Warren, New Jersey | 151 (±0.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 15.670 (±2.1%) | 114.58 (±0.4%) |
| 166 Santa Clara, California | 155 (±0.5%) |  | 5.98 (±3.6%) |  |  | 15.812 (±1.2%) | 102.44 (±0.3%) |
| 165 Bexar, Texas | 210 (±13.4%) |  | 5.74 (±6.5%) |  |  | 36.787 (±7.7%) | 154.37 (±5.6%) |
| 162 Jefferson, Alabama | 170 (±1.9%) |  | 7.95 (±6.5%) |  |  | 24.118 (±2.1%) | 132.43 (±0.6%) |
| 159 Puerto Rico | 152 (±0.5%) |  | 4.71 (±7.6%) |  |  | 16.314 (±1.2%) | 109.30 (±0.2%) |
| 158 St. Louis City, Missouri | 163 (±0.6%) |  | 8.28 (±3.2%) |  |  | 18.847 (±1.1%) | 120.91 (±0.2%) |
| 156 Adams, Colorado | 165 (±0.8%) |  | 4.83 (±4.5%) |  |  | 19.860 (±1.2%) | 120.93 (±0.3%) |
| 155 Dougherty, Georgia | 150 (±0.5%) |  | 9.03 (±2.1%) |  |  | 13.229 (±1.6%) | 99.99 (±0.3%) |
| 152 Dutchess, New York | 153 (±1.3%) |  | 4.35 (±2.2%) |  |  | 13.732 (±3.4%) | 122.95 (±0.4%) |
| 150 Barnstable, Massachusetts | 152 (±0.7%) |  | 11.27 (±3.4%) |  |  | 18.230 (±1.3%) | 125.61 (±0.2%) |
| 149 Cumberland, New Jersey | 189 (±2.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 23.367 (±2.1%) | 148.91 (±0.6%) |
| 148 Tulare, California | 163 (±2.7%) |  | 5.46 (±8.3%) |  |  | 25.355 (±2.5%) | 137.57 (±0.9%) |
| 145 El Paso, Texas | 166 (±1.4%) |  | 4.49 (±8.1%) |  |  | 22.271 (±1.4%) | 145.23 (±0.4%) |
| 144 St. Clair, Illinois | 170 (±1.8%) |  | 8.89 (±3.6%) |  |  | 24.007 (±1.8%) | 139.41 (±0.6%) |
| 139 Kent, Michigan | 173 (±2.1%) |  | 2.90 (±3.6%) |  |  | 24.978 (±2.0%) | 139.63 (±0.7%) |
| 138 Weld, Colorado | 137 (±0.3%) |  | 5.89 (±3.0%) |  |  | 14.179 (±0.7%) | 105.34 (±0.1%) |
| 137 Mobile, Alabama | 136 (±0.4%) |  | 6.62 (±6.4%) |  |  | 15.760 (±0.9%) | 118.34 (±0.1%) |
| 135 Navajo, Arizona | 267 (±8.5%) |  | 5.45 (±7.3%) |  |  | 33.794 (±4.1%) | 170.77 (±2.5%) |
| 133 Allen, Indiana | 151 (±7.4%) |  | 7.08 (±5.7%) |  |  | 28.248 (±6.2%) | 138.20 (±2.7%) |
| 132 Arlington, Virginia | 137 (±0.7%) |  | 6.50 (±4.0%) |  |  | 16.559 (±1.5%) | 125.95 (±0.2%) |
| 127 Imperial, California | 255096 (±127.8%) |  | 1.88 (±23.2%) |  |  | 82.702 (±8.3%) | 472.83 (±10.6%) |
| 125 Hunterdon, New Jersey | 1133 (±116.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 59.274 (±25.0%) | 269.22 (±28.7%) |
| 124 Yuma, Arizona | 291 (±5.8%) |  | 0.56 (±76.9%) |  |  | 26.247 (±2.4%) | 185.81 (±0.9%) |
| 123 Hidalgo, Texas | 832564 (±1006.6%) |  | 8.72 (±29.6%) |  |  | 65.039 (±53.0%) | 412.12 (±61.2%) |
| 121 El Paso, Colorado | 114 (±1.4%) |  | 8.10 (±4.2%) |  |  | 18.665 (±2.7%) | 107.17 (±0.7%) |
| 120 Frederick, Maryland | 119 (±0.3%) |  | 7.04 (±4.7%) |  |  | 15.678 (±0.8%) | 117.28 (±0.1%) |
| 118 Johnson, Indiana | 118 (±0.2%) |  | 10.62 (±2.5%) |  |  | 14.715 (±0.6%) | 113.72 (±0.1%) |
| 117 Hampshire, Massachusetts | 115 (±0.7%) |  | 12.32 (±1.2%) |  |  | 16.481 (±1.3%) | 126.70 (±0.2%) |
| 114 Carroll, Maryland | 124 (±1.2%) |  | 11.29 (±3.0%) |  |  | 21.552 (±1.8%) | 122.38 (±0.4%) |
| 111 San Mateo, California | 116 (±0.9%) |  | 6.01 (±4.8%) |  |  | 21.519 (±1.4%) | 119.33 (±0.4%) |
| 109 Montgomery, Alabama | 178 (±3.6%) |  | 2.81 (±21.8%) |  |  | 27.142 (±2.1%) | 165.67 (±0.8%) |
| 107 Washtenaw, Michigan | 105 (±0.4%) |  | 8.14 (±3.2%) |  |  | 13.970 (±1.0%) | 111.65 (±0.2%) |
| 102 New London, Connecticut | 106 (±0.6%) |  | 8.90 (±1.9%) |  |  | 16.599 (±1.3%) | 123.38 (±0.2%) |
| 101 Apache, Arizona | 182 (±5.8%) |  | 5.78 (±4.9%) |  |  | 28.964 (±3.0%) | 171.94 (±1.4%) |
| 100 Sarasota, Florida | 102 (±0.8%) |  | 10.51 (±9.1%) |  |  | 19.276 (±1.3%) | 120.08 (±0.3%) |
| 99 Loudoun, Virginia | 98 (±1.5%) |  | 3.85 (±8.6%) |  |  | 19.925 (±2.1%) | 134.32 (±0.4%) |
| 98 Douglas, Nebraska | 271 (±19.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 33.238 (±7.4%) | 186.79 (±4.4%) |
| 97 Coconino, Arizona | 98 (±0.6%) |  | 6.46 (±5.5%) |  |  | 19.171 (±1.2%) | 117.10 (±0.2%) |
| 96 Mohave, Arizona | 119 (±2.8%) |  | 9.53 (±9.8%) |  |  | 24.170 (±2.4%) | 150.64 (±0.7%) |
| 94 Dakota, Minnesota | 102 (±1.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 18.505 (±2.5%) | 144.29 (±0.4%) |
| 93 Howard, Maryland | 103 (±1.1%) |  | 5.06 (±5.2%) |  |  | 22.213 (±1.2%) | 135.23 (±0.3%) |
| 92 Kent, Delaware | 98 (±0.9%) |  | 6.36 (±3.8%) |  |  | 19.967 (±1.3%) | 129.24 (±0.3%) |
| 90 Lafourche, Louisiana | 85 (±0.9%) |  | 11.03 (±2.7%) |  |  | 16.684 (±2.0%) | 114.17 (±0.4%) |
| 89 Kern, California | 125 (±4.3%) |  | 4.76 (±8.7%) |  |  | 27.568 (±2.7%) | 159.70 (±1.1%) |
| 88 Contra Costa, California | 611 (±66.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 58.255 (±15.2%) | 258.13 (±17.6%) |
| 87 Fresno, California | 127 (±5.3%) |  | 3.48 (±8.1%) |  |  | 26.135 (±3.4%) | 161.68 (±1.3%) |
| 86 Washoe, Nevada | 85 (±1.1%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 21.350 (±1.6%) | 123.90 (±0.4%) |
| 85 Collier, Florida | 97 (±3.1%) |  | 5.93 (±8.3%) |  |  | 24.835 (±3.0%) | 139.05 (±1.0%) |
| 84 Ouachita, Louisiana | 115 (±3.3%) |  | 7.09 (±6.1%) |  |  | 28.669 (±2.3%) | 149.48 (±1.0%) |
| 83 Linn, Iowa | 83 (±0.4%) |  | 8.08 (±2.9%) |  |  | 14.632 (±1.0%) | 113.49 (±0.2%) |
| 82 Pinal, Arizona | 186 (±26.4%) |  | 5.24 (±8.4%) |  |  | 38.959 (±11.1%) | 183.29 (±8.3%) |
| 81 Clayton, Georgia | 112 (±4.9%) |  | 6.57 (±4.9%) |  |  | 29.227 (±3.9%) | 140.64 (±1.8%) |
| 78 Sacramento, California | 67 (±1.1%) |  | 5.06 (±4.7%) |  |  | 17.423 (±2.4%) | 104.15 (±0.6%) |
| 77 Charlotte, Florida | 81 (±0.8%) |  | 12.01 (±5.2%) |  |  | 16.913 (±1.5%) | 127.60 (±0.2%) |
| 76 Rapides, Louisiana | 243 (±12.3%) |  | 6.04 (±16.4%) |  |  | 39.877 (±4.0%) | 200.83 (±3.1%) |
| 75 St. Charles, Missouri | 73 (±0.9%) |  | 9.77 (±2.9%) |  |  | 17.730 (±1.9%) | 115.45 (±0.4%) |
| 74 Duval, Florida | 82 (±1.5%) |  | 4.81 (±5.1%) |  |  | 25.425 (±1.5%) | 131.00 (±0.5%) |
| 73 Boulder, Colorado | 71 (±0.4%) |  | 6.88 (±2.8%) |  |  | 14.060 (±1.1%) | 114.30 (±0.2%) |
| 72 Oklahoma, Oklahoma | 73 (±0.9%) |  | 5.75 (±5.3%) |  |  | 20.065 (±1.5%) | 115.00 (±0.4%) |
| 71 Cameron, Texas | 88 (±6.6%) |  | 7.63 (±6.3%) |  |  | 29.209 (±4.9%) | 148.05 (±2.2%) |
| 70 Madison, Illinois | 71 (±0.7%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 16.075 (±1.5%) | 125.79 (±0.2%) |
| 69 Tallapoosa, Alabama | 70 (±1.1%) |  | 15.16 (±2.4%) |  |  | 13.184 (±3.0%) | 122.21 (±0.4%) |
| 68 Lorain, Ohio | 66 (±0.7%) |  | 8.10 (±2.6%) |  |  | 14.126 (±1.9%) | 117.20 (±0.3%) |
| 67 San Joaquin, California | 71 (±5.6%) |  | 6.14 (±7.0%) |  |  | 30.654 (±4.8%) | 130.11 (±2.5%) |
| 66 Cumberland, Pennsylvania | 64 (±0.9%) |  | 8.86 (±1.9%) |  |  | 15.438 (±1.9%) | 126.22 (±0.3%) |
| 65 Kankakee, Illinois | 74 (±1.8%) |  | 7.91 (±7.0%) |  |  | 22.766 (±2.3%) | 127.76 (±0.6%) |
| 64 Tolland, Connecticut | 65 (±0.4%) |  | 7.86 (±2.6%) |  |  | 16.595 (±0.9%) | 108.64 (±0.2%) |
| 63 Pulaski, Arkansas | 104 (±6.2%) |  | 5.24 (±6.0%) |  |  | 33.884 (±3.6%) | 157.27 (±2.2%) |
| 61 Chesterfield, Virginia | 95 (±19.3%) |  | 4.08 (±8.4%) |  |  | 38.613 (±12.8%) | 152.83 (±8.7%) |
| 60 Ascension, Louisiana | 58 (±0.6%) |  | 7.53 (±3.2%) |  |  | 14.911 (±1.6%) | 104.81 (±0.3%) |
| 59 St. Lucie, Florida | 66 (±8.5%) |  | 7.06 (±18.6%) |  |  | 30.427 (±7.0%) | 135.86 (±3.5%) |
| 58 Howard, Indiana | 74 (±3.7%) |  | 11.34 (±6.1%) |  |  | 22.123 (±3.4%) | 150.47 (±0.8%) |
| 57 Elkhart, Indiana | 55 (±4.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 24.420 (±4.8%) | 139.07 (±1.5%) |
| 56 Franklin, Massachusetts | 53 (±0.9%) |  | 16.18 (±1.4%) |  |  | 16.370 (±2.4%) | 103.26 (±0.5%) |
| 55 Muscogee, Georgia | 2166 (±95.8%) |  | 4.38 (±19.3%) |  |  | 66.527 (±13.0%) | 335.75 (±15.3%) |
| 54 Orleans, New York | 60 (±2.4%) |  | 18.64 (±3.1%) |  |  | 20.015 (±3.1%) | 138.17 (±0.6%) |
| 53 Ventura, California | 59 (±2.4%) |  | 5.71 (±7.1%) |  |  | 27.186 (±2.3%) | 130.74 (±0.9%) |
| 52 Douglas, Colorado | 54 (±1.1%) |  | 7.84 (±3.3%) |  |  | 18.446 (±2.2%) | 117.40 (±0.4%) |
| 51 St. Mary’s, Maryland | 71 (±5.0%) |  | 7.06 (±11.0%) |  |  | 22.888 (±4.2%) | 153.79 (±1.1%) |
| 50 San Francisco, California | 50 (±0.7%) |  | 2.56 (±6.1%) |  |  | 19.118 (±1.4%) | 110.53 (±0.3%) |
| 49 St. Charles, Louisiana | 46 (±0.6%) |  | 8.08 (±2.6%) |  |  | 12.630 (±2.1%) | 99.45 (±0.3%) |
| 48 Iberia, Louisiana | 45 (±0.7%) |  | 10.29 (±4.3%) |  |  | 16.629 (±1.4%) | 118.22 (±0.3%) |
| 47 Hall, Nebraska | 47 (±1.4%) |  | 3.10 (±4.8%) |  |  | 15.163 (±3.2%) | 120.34 (±0.5%) |
| 46 Morgan, Colorado | 47 (±1.0%) |  | 7.51 (±2.2%) |  |  | 14.136 (±2.7%) | 123.68 (±0.3%) |
| 45 Upson, Georgia | 44 (±1.2%) |  | 15.81 (±2.8%) |  |  | 17.877 (±2.5%) | 120.24 (±0.4%) |
| 44 Boone, Indiana | 40 (±1.0%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 13.920 (±2.9%) | 114.62 (±0.4%) |
| 43 Iberville, Louisiana | 43 (±0.3%) |  | 7.53 (±3.1%) |  |  | 13.940 (±0.9%) | 106.14 (±0.2%) |
| 42 Bartow, Georgia | 40 (±0.6%) |  | 8.73 (±3.5%) |  |  | 13.396 (±2.0%) | 103.02 (±0.3%) |
| 41 Bibb, Georgia | 45 (±1.5%) |  | 7.58 (±4.7%) |  |  | 20.413 (±2.0%) | 135.11 (±0.4%) |
| 40 Yolo, California | 25 (±1.5%) |  | 16.31 (±4.0%) |  |  | 12.732 (±4.7%) | 111.36 (±0.7%) |
| 39 Kings, California | 322617 (±466.7%) |  | 2.89 (±11.7%) |  |  | 71.639 (±25.3%) | 439.92 (±30.4%) |
| 38 Chatham, Georgia | 48 (±2.5%) |  | 6.93 (±8.9%) |  |  | 25.728 (±2.3%) | 140.30 (±0.8%) |
| 37 Lee, Alabama | 35 (±0.6%) |  | 5.98 (±3.9%) |  |  | 12.319 (±2.0%) | 107.13 (±0.3%) |
| 36 Martin, Florida | 65113 (±298.5%) |  | 5.74 (±14.1%) |  |  | 100.301 (±19.8%) | 551.18 (±26.6%) |
| 35 Washington, Arkansas | 731297 (±594.9%) |  | 2.47 (±60.0%) |  |  | 92.425 (±29.2%) | 548.07 (±38.4%) |
| 34 Clay, Florida | 36 (±0.8%) |  | 8.42 (±3.6%) |  |  | 20.498 (±1.4%) | 115.01 (±0.3%) |
| 33 Hancock, Georgia | 32 (±1.2%) |  | 16.01 (±1.8%) |  |  | 11.224 (±3.5%) | 140.82 (±0.3%) |
| 32 Early, Georgia | 31 (±0.6%) |  | 13.44 (±1.4%) |  |  | 12.505 (±1.8%) | 111.51 (±0.2%) |
| 31 Osceola, Florida | 29 (±2.9%) |  | 4.57 (±4.5%) |  |  | 23.483 (±3.7%) | 126.19 (±1.0%) |
| 30 Marin, California | 23 (±7.5%) |  | 6.03 (±7.9%) |  |  | 29.124 (±10.4%) | 105.24 (±3.8%) |
| 29 Houston, Georgia | 26 (±4.0%) |  | 7.80 (±4.4%) |  |  | 25.227 (±5.9%) | 110.69 (±1.8%) |
| 28 Butler, Alabama | 30 (±1.4%) |  | 5.83 (±4.2%) |  |  | 15.806 (±2.4%) | 141.58 (±0.3%) |
| 27 Walker, Alabama | 423 (±105.1%) |  | 4.92 (±40.7%) |  |  | 36.540 (±18.1%) | 238.77 (±12.8%) |
| 26 Brevard, Florida | 37 (±20.4%) |  | 5.45 (±5.7%) |  |  | 41.693 (±11.8%) | 157.99 (±9.8%) |
| 25 Barrow, Georgia | 32 (±4.1%) |  | 5.87 (±3.4%) |  |  | 21.784 (±4.4%) | 142.94 (±1.1%) |
| 24 Shelby, Alabama | 23 (±1.5%) |  | 5.20 (±6.6%) |  |  | 17.475 (±3.3%) | 111.48 (±0.6%) |
| 23 Lee, Georgia | 22 (±0.6%) |  | 6.45 (±3.2%) |  |  | 11.602 (±2.8%) | 93.77 (±0.4%) |
| 22 Hale, Alabama | 28 (±4.9%) |  | 7.19 (±12.6%) |  |  | 20.527 (±4.4%) | 158.04 (±0.9%) |
| 21 Suwannee, Florida | 19 (±0.7%) |  | 9.90 (±5.0%) |  |  | 9.489 (±3.4%) | 110.70 (±0.3%) |
| 20 Chaffee, Colorado | 20 (±1.0%) |  | 25.35 (±2.1%) |  |  | 11.533 (±3.4%) | 111.45 (±0.4%) |
| 19 Colquitt, Georgia | 20 (±1.9%) |  | 5.53 (±8.6%) |  |  | 22.783 (±2.7%) | 119.06 (±0.7%) |
| 18 Jackson, West Virginia | 18 (±0.6%) |  | 11.95 (±4.7%) |  |  | 7.684 (±3.2%) | 115.19 (±0.2%) |
| 17 Clinton, Illinois | 17 (±0.4%) |  | 7.16 (±6.0%) |  |  | 9.462 (±1.5%) | 125.81 (±0.1%) |
| 16 Putnam, Ohio | 15 (±0.7%) |  | 16.82 (±2.5%) |  |  | 9.454 (±3.1%) | 117.91 (±0.2%) |
| 13 Tate, Mississippi | 1092 (±282.4%) |  | 8.23 (±15.5%) |  |  | 39.534 (±31.3%) | 268.95 (±24.8%) |
For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.