Labor am Elm

Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People in the US

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

18 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Thu Dec 3 07:17:42 UTC 2020

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_dead death rate (err) death_rate deaths_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
7700
Los Angeles, California
7633 (±0.6%) 3.61 (±4.3%) 39.687 (±0.9%) 169.20 (±0.4%)
7509
Kings, New York
7322 (±0.2%) 11.75 (±1.0%) 16.584 (±1.2%) 106.19 (±0.3%)
7356
Queens, New York
7221 (±0.2%) 10.76 (±0.8%) 15.962 (±1.0%) 105.08 (±0.2%)
5035
Bronx, New York
4919 (±0.2%) 10.09 (±0.8%) 16.641 (±1.1%) 105.78 (±0.3%)
4010
Maricopa, Arizona
3927 (±0.6%) fiterr (±err) 33.275 (±1.1%) 197.26 (±0.3%)
3839
Miami-Dade, Florida
4555 (±1.2%) 1.95 (±19.8%) 46.541 (±1.3%) 210.32 (±0.6%)
3237
Wayne, Michigan
2917 (±0.3%) 11.52 (±2.2%) 16.227 (±1.6%) 108.74 (±0.4%)
3229
New York, New York
3171 (±0.2%) 10.44 (±1.1%) 17.036 (±1.0%) 106.90 (±0.2%)
3013
Harris, Texas
3127 (±0.6%) 1.45 (±11.8%) 36.590 (±1.0%) 199.66 (±0.3%)
2430
Middlesex, Massachusetts
2143 (±0.5%) 9.48 (±1.2%) 20.139 (±2.0%) 122.34 (±0.5%)
2238
Essex, New Jersey
2117 (±0.3%) 11.06 (±1.3%) 19.174 (±1.4%) 113.22 (±0.4%)
2056
Suffolk, New York
2007 (±0.1%) 4.83 (±1.1%) 14.387 (±0.6%) 109.56 (±0.1%)
1985
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
1803 (±0.3%) 6.40 (±2.3%) 20.493 (±1.3%) 124.06 (±0.3%)
1782
Clark, Nevada
2053 (±1.7%) 1.44 (±18.5%) 49.535 (±1.7%) 212.40 (±0.8%)
1697
Palm Beach, Florida
1926 (±0.6%) 2.56 (±5.7%) 47.291 (±0.7%) 200.93 (±0.3%)
1664
Broward, Florida
1898 (±1.6%) 1.59 (±25.9%) 45.205 (±1.8%) 205.56 (±0.8%)
1609
Hartford, Connecticut
1444 (±0.3%) 11.63 (±1.7%) 16.259 (±1.3%) 117.29 (±0.3%)
1585
Dallas, Texas
1620 (±1.0%) 2.14 (±5.1%) 45.529 (±1.2%) 206.39 (±0.5%)
1582
Hudson, New Jersey
1511 (±0.3%) 7.93 (±1.2%) 18.998 (±1.3%) 115.01 (±0.3%)
1577
Orange, California
1762 (±0.3%) 2.51 (±4.5%) 42.067 (±0.4%) 214.38 (±0.1%)
1517
Westchester, New York
1449 (±0.2%) 4.46 (±2.1%) 13.335 (±1.0%) 105.80 (±0.2%)
1516
Fairfield, Connecticut
1418 (±0.1%) 8.17 (±1.7%) 15.474 (±0.8%) 112.10 (±0.2%)
1502
Bexar, Texas
1452 (±0.5%) fiterr (±err) 25.493 (±1.2%) 212.25 (±0.2%)
1496
Middlesex, New Jersey
1438 (±0.3%) 8.30 (±1.5%) 22.136 (±1.1%) 121.94 (±0.3%)
1460
Essex, Massachusetts
1285 (±0.5%) 8.08 (±1.5%) 21.188 (±1.8%) 124.68 (±0.5%)
1320
Passaic, New Jersey
1254 (±0.3%) 7.46 (±1.6%) 19.896 (±1.3%) 120.05 (±0.3%)
1291
Macomb, Michigan
1020 (±0.6%) 12.04 (±3.1%) 18.523 (±2.9%) 110.29 (±0.8%)
1280
Worcester, Massachusetts
1112 (±0.5%) 9.30 (±1.3%) 22.138 (±1.9%) 130.52 (±0.5%)
1259
New Haven, Connecticut
1120 (±0.2%) 9.24 (±1.6%) 16.463 (±1.0%) 117.14 (±0.2%)
1250
Suffolk, Massachusetts
1120 (±0.4%) 5.85 (±1.5%) 18.555 (±1.9%) 119.02 (±0.5%)
1184
Norfolk, Massachusetts
1049 (±0.5%) 12.37 (±1.2%) 19.015 (±2.0%) 118.76 (±0.5%)
1134
Richmond, New York
1086 (±0.2%) 7.63 (±1.3%) 16.685 (±1.0%) 105.19 (±0.3%)
1130
Ocean, New Jersey
1053 (±0.2%) 9.99 (±2.0%) 21.807 (±0.9%) 122.97 (±0.3%)
1129
San Bernardino, California
1371 (±1.5%) 1.69 (±5.6%) 46.852 (±1.5%) 215.88 (±0.7%)
1121
Hennepin, Minnesota
950 (±0.6%) 5.05 (±3.3%) 24.161 (±2.1%) 132.03 (±0.6%)
1091
El Paso, Texas
2189 (±12.0%) 3.33 (±5.3%) 72.606 (±4.9%) 316.45 (±4.3%)
1043
Tarrant, Texas
1185 (±1.4%) 2.66 (±7.7%) 50.314 (±1.3%) 220.80 (±0.7%)
1028
Providence, Rhode Island
903 (±0.5%) 6.61 (±2.7%) 22.623 (±1.8%) 129.95 (±0.5%)
1019
San Diego, California
1026 (±0.8%) 2.80 (±6.1%) 44.457 (±1.0%) 181.83 (±0.5%)
990
St. Louis, Missouri
882 (±1.0%) 5.55 (±7.3%) 35.430 (±2.3%) 138.41 (±1.0%)
960
Montgomery, Maryland
847 (±0.4%) 5.10 (±2.9%) 20.417 (±1.5%) 127.09 (±0.4%)
941
Montgomery, Pennsylvania
873 (±0.3%) 9.07 (±2.3%) 18.023 (±1.2%) 121.09 (±0.3%)
936
Prince George’s, Maryland
829 (±0.4%) 4.13 (±3.4%) 23.470 (±1.5%) 129.34 (±0.4%)
933
Hillsborough, Florida
1005 (±1.1%) fiterr (±err) 42.982 (±1.2%) 220.24 (±0.4%)
913
Hampden, Massachusetts
776 (±0.6%) 11.69 (±1.5%) 22.009 (±2.3%) 118.58 (±0.7%)
911
Pinellas, Florida
893 (±0.5%) fiterr (±err) 33.582 (±1.0%) 200.87 (±0.2%)
896
Plymouth, Massachusetts
784 (±0.6%) 9.71 (±1.1%) 22.401 (±2.1%) 124.89 (±0.6%)
885
Marion, Indiana
768 (±0.4%) 5.77 (±3.6%) 20.976 (±1.4%) 119.75 (±0.4%)
863
Morris, New Jersey
834 (±0.4%) 11.69 (±1.3%) 21.070 (±1.5%) 116.45 (±0.4%)
826
Erie, New York
699 (±0.3%) 8.40 (±2.7%) 20.081 (±1.3%) 122.87 (±0.3%)
758
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
642 (±1.3%) 3.28 (±6.5%) 39.287 (±2.6%) 137.37 (±1.2%)
756
Cuyahoga, Ohio
738 (±0.5%) 4.56 (±3.7%) 38.085 (±0.9%) 164.59 (±0.4%)
704
Fulton, Georgia
715 (±0.9%) 3.60 (±8.4%) 43.718 (±1.3%) 171.23 (±0.6%)
695
Pima, Arizona
698 (±0.6%) 1.59 (±14.0%) 36.850 (±1.0%) 171.16 (±0.3%)
693
Bucks, Pennsylvania
604 (±0.3%) 9.20 (±2.1%) 16.624 (±1.5%) 122.07 (±0.3%)
692
Rockland, New York
673 (±0.1%) 4.87 (±1.3%) 12.923 (±0.9%) 105.01 (±0.1%)
688
Polk, Florida
706 (±0.7%) fiterr (±err) 37.212 (±1.1%) 212.52 (±0.3%)
685
District of Columbia, District of Columbia
623 (±0.3%) 5.54 (±2.6%) 20.298 (±1.3%) 123.55 (±0.3%)
684
Camden, New Jersey
625 (±0.3%) 7.74 (±1.9%) 25.415 (±1.0%) 136.04 (±0.3%)
673
Shelby, Tennessee
785 (±0.9%) 3.05 (±6.9%) 51.739 (±0.8%) 216.14 (±0.4%)
648
Orleans, Louisiana
574 (±0.4%) 6.78 (±2.0%) 15.879 (±2.0%) 100.77 (±0.5%)
641
Lake, Illinois
514 (±0.7%) 4.88 (±3.2%) 26.193 (±2.2%) 133.27 (±0.7%)
629
Jefferson, Louisiana
554 (±0.6%) 5.50 (±3.2%) 20.191 (±2.4%) 106.36 (±0.8%)
626
Duval, Florida
783 (±1.9%) fiterr (±err) 48.299 (±1.5%) 247.68 (±0.7%)
624
Fairfax, Virginia
581 (±0.4%) 3.62 (±2.5%) 23.019 (±1.5%) 131.93 (±0.4%)
610
Somerset, New Jersey
579 (±0.4%) 11.29 (±1.2%) 22.009 (±1.5%) 119.40 (±0.4%)
587
Lee, Florida
592 (±0.8%) fiterr (±err) 40.230 (±1.1%) 192.14 (±0.4%)
581
Sacramento, California
705 (±2.3%) 1.27 (±67.1%) 46.582 (±2.1%) 238.94 (±0.8%)
568
Baltimore City, Maryland
509 (±0.5%) 4.69 (±3.6%) 30.868 (±1.4%) 142.00 (±0.5%)
567
Will, Illinois
433 (±1.3%) 5.61 (±4.4%) 32.332 (±3.5%) 127.87 (±1.5%)
545
Burlington, New Jersey
505 (±0.3%) 8.50 (±1.8%) 23.871 (±1.0%) 132.74 (±0.3%)
528
Denver, Colorado
441 (±0.5%) 5.03 (±3.2%) 21.432 (±1.8%) 123.56 (±0.5%)
527
Lancaster, Pennsylvania
463 (±0.6%) 8.02 (±3.1%) 26.227 (±1.9%) 127.19 (±0.7%)
518
East Baton Rouge, Louisiana
488 (±1.1%) 3.93 (±6.1%) 39.196 (±2.1%) 145.03 (±0.9%)
514
Alameda, California
726 (±2.8%) 3.00 (±6.1%) 57.317 (±2.0%) 236.05 (±1.3%)
511
Cobb, Georgia
510 (±0.8%) 3.69 (±7.3%) 41.514 (±1.3%) 165.90 (±0.6%)
507
Ramsey, Minnesota
421 (±1.8%) 5.94 (±3.5%) 40.327 (±2.9%) 171.04 (±1.2%)
501
Jefferson, Alabama
559 (±1.9%) 1.09 (±15.6%) 52.225 (±1.8%) 210.03 (±1.0%)
488
Fresno, California
535 (±1.1%) 1.49 (±9.2%) 38.918 (±1.3%) 224.21 (±0.4%)
484
Travis, Texas
510 (±1.0%) 2.22 (±10.1%) 38.426 (±1.5%) 191.52 (±0.5%)
482
Santa Clara, California
1070 (±9.7%) 3.15 (±14.4%) 85.132 (±4.3%) 301.16 (±4.9%)
475
Lake, Indiana
400 (±1.7%) 6.03 (±4.2%) 41.046 (±3.2%) 148.55 (±1.4%)
472
Kane, Illinois
360 (±0.9%) 4.00 (±3.2%) 28.311 (±2.6%) 142.68 (±0.8%)
461
Berks, Pennsylvania
398 (±0.5%) 8.33 (±2.8%) 19.065 (±2.2%) 125.83 (±0.5%)
459
DeKalb, Georgia
507 (±1.1%) 3.82 (±6.2%) 48.341 (±1.3%) 194.37 (±0.6%)
458
Jefferson, Kentucky
468 (±2.8%) 3.94 (±7.6%) 54.148 (±3.1%) 181.44 (±2.0%)
456
Mecklenburg, North Carolina
486 (±0.8%) 1.51 (±11.6%) 46.736 (±1.0%) 197.68 (±0.4%)
455
Jefferson, Colorado
405 (±4.5%) 8.76 (±4.0%) 53.460 (±5.4%) 167.76 (±3.4%)
448
Kern, California
496 (±0.9%) 1.09 (±10.5%) 38.546 (±1.2%) 219.29 (±0.3%)
446
Caddo, Louisiana
428 (±1.2%) 4.87 (±5.7%) 42.349 (±2.0%) 151.23 (±0.9%)
445
Arapahoe, Colorado
377 (±0.4%) 6.08 (±3.2%) 18.430 (±1.7%) 121.45 (±0.4%)
444
Brevard, Florida
462 (±1.0%) fiterr (±err) 37.149 (±1.3%) 233.53 (±0.3%)
437
Genesee, Michigan
316 (±0.7%) 11.38 (±3.0%) 15.986 (±3.7%) 109.17 (±0.8%)
423
Davidson, Tennessee
435 (±0.9%) 2.61 (±7.9%) 45.144 (±1.0%) 202.08 (±0.4%)
412
Greenville, South Carolina
436 (±1.1%) 1.85 (±7.4%) 43.976 (±1.3%) 208.09 (±0.5%)
406
Salt Lake, Utah
439 (±2.1%) 2.54 (±8.1%) 52.510 (±2.0%) 212.30 (±1.1%)
400
Chester, Pennsylvania
365 (±0.3%) 7.17 (±2.9%) 18.912 (±1.4%) 125.38 (±0.3%)
393
Sarasota, Florida
651 (±3.7%) fiterr (±err) 66.018 (±2.1%) 263.11 (±1.7%)
392
Yuma, Arizona
365 (±0.3%) 3.07 (±2.8%) 25.150 (±0.8%) 189.56 (±0.1%)
385
Lehigh, Pennsylvania
357 (±0.3%) 8.19 (±2.3%) 21.989 (±1.0%) 133.29 (±0.3%)
382
New Castle, Delaware
341 (±0.6%) 4.99 (±4.0%) 30.464 (±1.6%) 143.31 (±0.5%)
379
Marion, Florida
389 (±0.4%) 3.36 (±2.9%) 29.902 (±0.6%) 234.72 (±0.1%)
376
Hamilton, Ohio
368 (±0.9%) 3.29 (±4.6%) 39.955 (±1.6%) 155.94 (±0.6%)
375
Manatee, Florida
401 (±1.4%) fiterr (±err) 47.256 (±1.6%) 190.25 (±0.8%)
371
St. Lucie, Florida
385 (±1.1%) 3.61 (±5.0%) 37.302 (±1.5%) 216.12 (±0.4%)
370
Volusia, Florida
489 (±1.5%) fiterr (±err) 51.976 (±1.2%) 242.26 (±0.6%)
365
Mobile, Alabama
391 (±1.5%) 3.48 (±6.2%) 47.842 (±1.8%) 183.11 (±0.9%)
363
Kent, Michigan
258 (±4.0%) 4.69 (±3.5%) 47.689 (±5.3%) 170.94 (±2.8%)
360
Summit, Ohio
262 (±0.9%) 7.93 (±4.1%) 25.878 (±2.8%) 134.57 (±0.9%)
356
Imperial, California
351 (±0.3%) 2.94 (±2.5%) 29.097 (±0.6%) 191.17 (±0.1%)
348
Douglas, Nebraska
317 (±2.6%) 2.77 (±5.6%) 49.824 (±2.5%) 214.34 (±1.2%)
342
Bernalillo, New Mexico
795 (±17.7%) 4.93 (±6.7%) 90.938 (±6.6%) 337.54 (±7.8%)
340
Adams, Colorado
331 (±3.1%) 5.10 (±3.8%) 53.934 (±3.7%) 170.85 (±2.3%)
339
Polk, Iowa
304 (±1.2%) 3.35 (±4.2%) 37.841 (±2.3%) 157.91 (±0.9%)
336
Northampton, Pennsylvania
306 (±0.3%) 8.61 (±2.4%) 20.750 (±1.4%) 126.68 (±0.3%)
335
Fort Bend, Texas
354 (±1.4%) 2.26 (±9.5%) 36.420 (±2.1%) 208.94 (±0.5%)
333
Hillsborough, New Hampshire
303 (±0.4%) 7.53 (±1.6%) 20.983 (±1.7%) 148.37 (±0.3%)
332
Allen, Indiana
303 (±2.1%) 6.03 (±3.6%) 49.656 (±2.4%) 188.45 (±1.3%)
313
Monroe, New York
295 (±0.2%) 5.66 (±3.0%) 21.560 (±0.9%) 121.64 (±0.3%)
312
Tulare, California
318 (±0.5%) 2.32 (±6.2%) 40.996 (±0.8%) 176.34 (±0.3%)
302
Mahoning, Ohio
280 (±0.4%) 10.37 (±2.8%) 24.622 (±1.2%) 127.99 (±0.4%)
298
Anne Arundel, Maryland
259 (±0.7%) 4.33 (±3.8%) 26.803 (±2.4%) 126.75 (±0.8%)
297
Yakima, Washington
286 (±0.4%) 2.99 (±3.9%) 35.398 (±0.7%) 157.77 (±0.3%)
296
Atlantic, New Jersey
262 (±0.3%) 7.89 (±2.0%) 22.736 (±1.1%) 136.92 (±0.3%)
294
St. Tammany, Louisiana
275 (±1.1%) 4.13 (±9.1%) 36.936 (±2.6%) 130.02 (±1.2%)
290
Kansas City, Missouri
3295 (±18.5%) 2.00 (±6.7%) 103.674 (±3.5%) 488.85 (±4.0%)
289
Johnson, Kansas
5307 (±64.1%) 0.68 (±42.8%) 143.686 (±10.6%) 626.35 (±14.6%)
288
El Paso, Colorado
280 (±4.1%) 4.80 (±7.0%) 59.321 (±4.0%) 182.01 (±3.2%)
285
Gloucester, New Jersey
238 (±0.6%) 8.06 (±2.8%) 25.737 (±1.9%) 135.23 (±0.6%)
284
Pierce, Washington
314 (±2.0%) 5.26 (±7.0%) 55.038 (±1.9%) 199.07 (±1.2%)
281
Collier, Florida
321 (±0.6%) 1.34 (±9.8%) 47.122 (±0.7%) 208.58 (±0.3%)
280
McKinley, New Mexico
262 (±0.4%) 7.20 (±2.1%) 27.410 (±1.0%) 150.93 (±0.3%)
278
Washoe, Nevada
331 (±4.0%) 4.42 (±7.2%) 63.139 (±2.8%) 230.11 (±2.2%)
276
Pulaski, Arkansas
743 (±5.3%) 1.34 (±15.9%) 80.018 (±1.9%) 335.32 (±1.9%)
272
Navajo, Arizona
258 (±0.4%) 4.63 (±1.8%) 32.917 (±0.9%) 168.55 (±0.3%)
270
Tulsa, Oklahoma
476 (±4.1%) 0.30 (±65.4%) 72.615 (±2.1%) 277.61 (±1.9%)
264
Winnebago, Illinois
259 (±3.8%) 5.45 (±3.2%) 52.071 (±3.8%) 198.96 (±2.2%)
263
Pinal, Arizona
252 (±0.8%) 1.66 (±13.4%) 36.998 (±1.2%) 191.98 (±0.4%)
262
Mohave, Arizona
254 (±0.5%) 4.98 (±3.6%) 34.495 (±1.0%) 183.80 (±0.3%)
261
Contra Costa, California
294 (±0.7%) 1.40 (±20.7%) 44.606 (±0.8%) 203.67 (±0.3%)
260
Spokane, Washington
359 (±3.8%) 1.29 (±57.6%) 57.800 (±2.5%) 253.15 (±1.6%)
255
Lake, Florida
286 (±1.3%) fiterr (±err) 37.982 (±1.5%) 237.41 (±0.4%)
253
York, Pennsylvania
325 (±1.2%) 5.29 (±8.4%) 54.495 (±0.9%) 242.53 (±0.5%)
251
Henrico, Virginia
232 (±1.1%) 5.70 (±3.4%) 36.028 (±2.7%) 130.71 (±1.2%)
249
Calcasieu, Louisiana
268 (±1.4%) 0.91 (±74.9%) 41.582 (±1.9%) 197.71 (±0.7%)
248
Montgomery, Ohio
249 (±1.4%) 1.50 (±12.2%) 40.841 (±1.6%) 225.46 (±0.5%)
245
Osceola, Florida
293 (±2.6%) fiterr (±err) 47.851 (±2.3%) 238.05 (±1.0%)
244
Multnomah, Oregon
448 (±10.2%) 4.06 (±8.3%) 82.025 (±4.7%) 292.39 (±5.2%)
242
Elkhart, Indiana
635 (±16.2%) 3.46 (±3.6%) 85.835 (±5.6%) 349.73 (±6.0%)
240
St. Louis City, Missouri
215 (±0.8%) 5.45 (±5.1%) 31.036 (±2.1%) 133.51 (±0.8%)
239
Guilford, North Carolina
219 (±0.8%) 3.23 (±4.9%) 38.039 (±1.5%) 165.05 (±0.6%)
237
Prince William, Virginia
217 (±0.7%) 2.54 (±3.0%) 30.313 (±1.7%) 148.32 (±0.6%)
236
Montgomery, Alabama
220 (±0.9%) 2.64 (±4.2%) 36.451 (±1.6%) 178.83 (±0.5%)
231
Lackawanna, Pennsylvania
217 (±0.2%) 10.36 (±2.4%) 18.316 (±0.9%) 121.70 (±0.2%)
229
Stark, Ohio
195 (±1.2%) 7.36 (±5.1%) 39.312 (±2.3%) 148.72 (±1.0%)
228
Anoka, Minnesota
208 (±4.6%) 5.48 (±4.6%) 51.966 (±5.8%) 175.74 (±3.1%)
221
Denton, Texas
256 (±2.7%) 2.12 (±13.4%) 50.573 (±2.3%) 226.76 (±1.2%)
220
Richmond, Georgia
262 (±1.0%) 1.17 (±57.5%) 48.852 (±0.9%) 223.40 (±0.4%)
218
St. Charles, Missouri
506 (±19.1%) fiterr (±err) 94.629 (±7.5%) 332.35 (±9.4%)
217
Florence, South Carolina
237 (±1.1%) 3.46 (±7.5%) 40.399 (±1.5%) 202.69 (±0.5%)
214
Ouachita, Louisiana
204 (±1.5%) 3.69 (±6.0%) 45.868 (±1.8%) 188.28 (±0.9%)
212
Montgomery, Texas
238 (±1.6%) 2.18 (±14.0%) 45.026 (±1.6%) 221.26 (±0.6%)
210
Chatham, Georgia
250 (±1.5%) fiterr (±err) 44.795 (±1.6%) 227.11 (±0.6%)
207
Middlesex, Connecticut
194 (±0.2%) 13.15 (±1.9%) 18.675 (±0.8%) 120.19 (±0.2%)
204
Dougherty, Georgia
181 (±0.6%) 8.65 (±2.2%) 21.649 (±2.7%) 104.76 (±0.9%)
203
Clayton, Georgia
223 (±1.1%) 3.74 (±7.2%) 48.522 (±1.2%) 191.34 (±0.6%)
202
Hinds, Mississippi
198 (±0.9%) 2.76 (±6.3%) 36.059 (±1.4%) 199.09 (±0.4%)
199
Sussex, New Jersey
197 (±0.3%) 14.31 (±1.3%) 19.033 (±1.4%) 114.94 (±0.4%)
198
Smith, Texas
250 (±2.6%) fiterr (±err) 44.321 (±2.0%) 267.49 (±0.7%)
197
Charlotte, Florida
224 (±3.4%) 4.06 (±10.5%) 57.137 (±3.2%) 202.10 (±2.1%)
196
Apache, Arizona
181 (±0.5%) 6.07 (±2.0%) 30.930 (±1.1%) 172.51 (±0.3%)
192
Muscogee, Georgia
201 (±0.7%) 1.80 (±10.0%) 36.474 (±1.1%) 202.67 (±0.3%)
191
Dona Ana, New Mexico
2965506 (±380.0%) 4.07 (±5.5%) 185.800 (±18.8%) 1074.60 (±25.6%)
190
Starr, Texas
187 (±0.3%) 6.23 (±2.9%) 23.398 (±0.7%) 222.44 (±0.1%)
189
Rapides, Louisiana
176 (±0.6%) 3.55 (±4.3%) 36.090 (±1.1%) 184.26 (±0.3%)
186
Gaston, North Carolina
566 (±10.3%) fiterr (±err) 73.979 (±3.5%) 348.12 (±3.0%)
184
Muskegon, Michigan
2168 (±139.4%) 12.09 (±3.4%) 145.752 (±24.3%) 619.82 (±34.0%)
183
Ventura, California
212 (±1.3%) 1.37 (±14.9%) 47.777 (±1.3%) 210.92 (±0.6%)
181
Merced, California
169 (±0.7%) fiterr (±err) 27.100 (±1.5%) 220.49 (±0.2%)
180
Wyandotte, Kansas
201 (±3.4%) 3.62 (±6.0%) 56.038 (±3.6%) 176.07 (±2.6%)
179
Jefferson, Texas
215 (±2.0%) 1.03 (±29.7%) 49.832 (±1.8%) 221.62 (±0.9%)
178
Washington, Arkansas
258 (±2.7%) 2.24 (±3.0%) 52.659 (±1.9%) 260.09 (±1.0%)
176
New London, Connecticut
131 (±1.4%) 10.12 (±2.9%) 29.400 (±4.1%) 130.46 (±1.5%)
175
Hamilton, Indiana
118 (±1.2%) 6.73 (±6.1%) 22.040 (±5.3%) 113.01 (±1.7%)
174
Maverick, Texas
182 (±0.7%) 3.93 (±4.8%) 33.960 (±0.9%) 236.52 (±0.2%)
173
Coconino, Arizona
155 (±0.9%) 4.82 (±3.4%) 37.516 (±2.0%) 140.77 (±0.8%)
170
San Mateo, California
160 (±0.8%) 3.77 (±6.6%) 35.184 (±1.8%) 137.28 (±0.8%)
167
Litchfield, Connecticut
142 (±0.3%) 9.61 (±1.6%) 14.513 (±1.7%) 111.58 (±0.3%)
166
Linn, Iowa
188 (±6.9%) 6.53 (±5.1%) 65.029 (±6.7%) 177.08 (±6.0%)
164
Rutherford, Tennessee
322 (±5.2%) 2.03 (±6.2%) 75.043 (±2.3%) 300.76 (±2.2%)
163
Hampshire, Massachusetts
148 (±0.6%) 13.57 (±1.5%) 26.226 (±1.9%) 135.72 (±0.6%)
162
Hendricks, Indiana
136 (±1.0%) 7.96 (±3.1%) 32.541 (±2.6%) 136.24 (±1.0%)
160
Benton, Arkansas
253 (±3.2%) fiterr (±err) 56.898 (±1.9%) 278.82 (±1.1%)
159
McHenry, Illinois
124 (±0.7%) 4.54 (±3.7%) 25.833 (±2.1%) 131.69 (±0.7%)
157
Sonoma, California
158 (±0.6%) 1.01 (±10.9%) 31.376 (±1.0%) 228.17 (±0.2%)
156
Beaver, Pennsylvania
192 (±6.8%) 8.60 (±7.7%) 66.352 (±6.7%) 173.03 (±6.2%)
155
Knox, Tennessee
216 (±6.0%) 0.79 (±62.4%) 56.338 (±3.4%) 276.87 (±2.0%)
154
Oneida, New York
131 (±0.5%) 6.52 (±2.1%) 26.609 (±1.4%) 150.75 (±0.4%)
152
Lafayette, Louisiana
158 (±1.0%) fiterr (±err) 40.666 (±1.4%) 190.29 (±0.5%)
150
Sedgwick, Kansas
466 (±10.7%) 0.71 (±48.7%) 79.404 (±3.7%) 342.37 (±3.6%)
149
Broome, New York
197 (±10.3%) 8.55 (±4.9%) 72.500 (±6.5%) 240.09 (±6.4%)
148
Clay, Florida
249 (±3.1%) 1.24 (±71.1%) 66.689 (±1.7%) 265.23 (±1.4%)
147
Lauderdale, Mississippi
146 (±1.3%) 8.60 (±3.2%) 42.237 (±2.3%) 155.94 (±1.0%)
146
Marion, Oregon
154 (±1.7%) 4.13 (±4.7%) 53.078 (±1.6%) 205.95 (±1.0%)
144
Loudoun, Virginia
130 (±0.5%) 2.75 (±5.3%) 28.118 (±1.3%) 145.67 (±0.4%)
143
Tangipahoa, Louisiana
168 (±2.1%) 3.30 (±10.6%) 51.068 (±2.2%) 202.11 (±1.2%)
141
Leon, Florida
211 (±3.3%) fiterr (±err) 47.670 (±2.2%) 278.13 (±0.9%)
140
Rock Island, Illinois
504 (±15.6%) 6.02 (±6.3%) 93.748 (±4.7%) 385.14 (±5.3%)
139
Henry, Georgia
187 (±2.8%) 2.99 (±12.5%) 55.526 (±2.1%) 237.62 (±1.2%)
138
Carroll, Maryland
126 (±0.3%) 8.24 (±2.6%) 22.546 (±1.1%) 122.79 (±0.3%)
137
Black Hawk, Iowa
164 (±6.2%) 4.58 (±3.5%) 64.808 (±5.2%) 208.58 (±4.2%)
136
Santa Barbara, California
144 (±1.2%) 2.15 (±7.8%) 37.762 (±1.8%) 209.59 (±0.5%)
135
Macon, Illinois
11405063 (±766.2%) 5.70 (±44.1%) 240.440 (±31.4%) 1399.81 (±45.0%)
133
Northumberland, Pennsylvania
171 (±3.2%) 6.46 (±12.2%) 41.283 (±2.6%) 270.39 (±0.7%)
132
Kent, Delaware
118 (±0.5%) 5.76 (±3.2%) 27.684 (±1.6%) 137.30 (±0.5%)
131
Pueblo, Colorado
278092 (±865.7%) 9.01 (±7.9%) 241.199 (±53.8%) 1289.20 (±77.1%)
130
Woodbury, Iowa
511 (±37.3%) 3.30 (±3.5%) 106.562 (±11.2%) 406.95 (±14.3%)
129
Vanderburgh, Indiana
5040898 (±165.1%) 1.02 (±53.6%) 180.030 (±7.5%) 1064.92 (±10.1%)
128
Jackson, Mississippi
213 (±5.6%) 1.73 (±64.2%) 65.937 (±2.9%) 282.72 (±2.2%)
124
Madison, Indiana
316 (±47.1%) 7.11 (±10.4%) 115.891 (±19.9%) 338.34 (±31.5%)
123
Yavapai, Arizona
95 (±1.1%) 3.15 (±13.4%) 25.137 (±3.0%) 200.58 (±0.5%)
121
Boulder, Colorado
84 (±1.0%) 5.77 (±4.5%) 20.988 (±3.9%) 118.64 (±1.1%)
120
Troup, Georgia
121 (±0.5%) fiterr (±err) 36.408 (±0.8%) 197.52 (±0.2%)
119
Clark, Washington
701 (±23.0%) 3.35 (±15.2%) 115.234 (±5.6%) 463.26 (±7.3%)
118
Acadia, Louisiana
112 (±0.8%) fiterr (±err) 34.541 (±1.5%) 179.86 (±0.4%)
117
Cherokee, Georgia
131 (±1.2%) 3.47 (±6.4%) 49.799 (±1.4%) 194.44 (±0.7%)
116
Laurens, Georgia
117 (±1.3%) fiterr (±err) 31.936 (±1.8%) 248.14 (±0.3%)
115
Ingham, Michigan
308909 (±420.3%) 5.38 (±5.2%) 239.978 (±26.4%) 1280.30 (±37.8%)
113
Wayne, North Carolina
260 (±6.7%) 3.03 (±6.9%) 79.334 (±2.8%) 313.26 (±2.8%)
112
Guam
144 (±3.4%) 6.65 (±47.5%) 38.212 (±2.7%) 282.22 (±0.7%)
111
Walker, Alabama
97 (±0.9%) fiterr (±err) 28.999 (±2.0%) 196.54 (±0.4%)
110
Douglas, Colorado
72 (±1.9%) 7.12 (±5.4%) 35.643 (±4.9%) 126.92 (±2.1%)
109
Newton, Georgia
118 (±1.4%) 2.95 (±10.1%) 37.937 (±1.9%) 223.94 (±0.5%)
108
Bartow, Georgia
133 (±2.9%) 3.29 (±11.2%) 59.053 (±2.7%) 193.43 (±2.0%)
107
Houston, Georgia
128 (±1.7%) 2.41 (±17.1%) 50.046 (±1.6%) 214.10 (±0.8%)
106
Lorain, Ohio
88 (±0.8%) 6.45 (±4.1%) 27.076 (±2.6%) 126.03 (±0.9%)
105
Garland, Arkansas
160 (±5.0%) 4.33 (±60.1%) 50.172 (±3.0%) 285.75 (±1.3%)
104
Kankakee, Illinois
81 (±0.9%) 4.78 (±6.5%) 29.010 (±2.6%) 131.64 (±0.9%)
103
Sangamon, Illinois
1534 (±112.6%) 2.34 (±45.4%) 146.927 (±19.1%) 629.38 (±26.8%)
102
Alachua, Florida
209 (±5.3%) fiterr (±err) 65.194 (±2.4%) 303.99 (±1.8%)
101
LaPorte, Indiana
871052 (±480.4%) 6.61 (±6.3%) 249.036 (±26.1%) 1367.11 (±37.5%)
100
St. Clair, Michigan
63 (±1.2%) 12.84 (±3.4%) 28.825 (±3.7%) 126.37 (±1.4%)
99
Angelina, Texas
96 (±0.6%) 3.49 (±5.5%) 27.218 (±1.4%) 216.39 (±0.2%)
98
Sumter, Florida
150 (±4.4%) 1.79 (±63.9%) 61.199 (±2.8%) 252.56 (±2.0%)
97
Alamance, North Carolina
822 (±70.4%) 2.31 (±3.7%) 125.530 (±15.8%) 508.51 (±21.3%)
96
St. Johns, Florida
95 (±1.0%) fiterr (±err) 33.869 (±1.5%) 221.08 (±0.3%)
95
St. Mary, Louisiana
111 (±2.2%) 3.59 (±11.3%) 53.541 (±2.4%) 187.64 (±1.4%)
94
Jackson, Florida
86 (±0.4%) 3.01 (±15.8%) 22.254 (±1.1%) 216.04 (±0.1%)
93
Gila, Arizona
90 (±2.0%) 6.86 (±3.7%) 39.779 (±2.4%) 226.99 (±0.7%)
91
Tallapoosa, Alabama
82 (±0.6%) 8.33 (±4.4%) 19.275 (±2.4%) 125.23 (±0.6%)
90
Wayne, Indiana
12097084 (±593.2%) 3.32 (±29.6%) 186.133 (±22.9%) 1127.39 (±31.4%)
89
Douglas, Georgia
87 (±0.9%) 3.40 (±9.0%) 42.370 (±1.4%) 176.22 (±0.6%)
88
Jones, Mississippi
85 (±0.8%) 4.10 (±2.8%) 32.669 (±1.9%) 165.19 (±0.5%)
87
Kings, California
86 (±0.4%) 1.72 (±8.8%) 27.556 (±0.9%) 189.55 (±0.2%)
86
Monroe, Michigan
568596 (±1221.8%) 8.40 (±4.8%) 299.514 (±67.2%) 1620.40 (±98.3%)
85
Floyd, Georgia
1468 (±45.6%) 0.87 (±41.5%) 126.939 (±7.5%) 575.08 (±9.8%)
84
East Feliciana, Louisiana
138 (±7.3%) 2.47 (±23.9%) 69.956 (±4.7%) 241.06 (±4.3%)
83
Paulding, Georgia
151 (±6.0%) 1.77 (±14.6%) 67.863 (±3.0%) 285.72 (±2.4%)
82
Habersham, Georgia
84 (±0.8%) 7.11 (±3.9%) 41.286 (±1.3%) 176.01 (±0.5%)
81
Mississippi, Arkansas
91 (±1.6%) fiterr (±err) 36.053 (±1.9%) 252.00 (±0.4%)
80
Walton, Georgia
96 (±2.1%) 3.05 (±9.5%) 52.643 (±1.9%) 215.31 (±1.1%)
79
Cochise, Arizona
76 (±0.4%) 3.96 (±2.4%) 25.101 (±1.2%) 198.54 (±0.2%)
78
Floyd, Indiana
77 (±2.4%) 5.82 (±8.9%) 46.901 (±4.1%) 145.49 (±2.0%)
77
Shelby, Alabama
172 (±7.1%) 2.53 (±13.6%) 81.631 (±3.2%) 298.86 (±3.4%)
76
Tolland, Connecticut
67 (±0.2%) 6.68 (±2.4%) 17.560 (±1.1%) 109.47 (±0.3%)
75
Larimer, Colorado
99 (±5.1%) 4.34 (±6.0%) 70.303 (±3.7%) 218.47 (±3.6%)
74
Allegany, Maryland
69027 (±1300.9%) 8.28 (±44.7%) 261.034 (±91.5%) 1347.80 (±132.8%)
73
Warrick, Indiana
102110 (±611.5%) 2.83 (±42.3%) 257.052 (±44.2%) 1319.32 (±64.2%)
72
Coweta, Georgia
138 (±4.8%) 3.18 (±9.0%) 64.465 (±2.4%) 282.64 (±1.8%)
71
Independence, Arkansas
102 (±4.3%) 5.61 (±3.4%) 35.002 (±3.4%) 289.88 (±0.7%)
70
Santa Cruz, Arizona
65 (±0.4%) 2.48 (±3.4%) 23.855 (±1.3%) 185.73 (±0.2%)
69
Anchorage, Alaska
329 (±10.2%) fiterr (±err) 85.501 (±2.7%) 395.93 (±2.7%)
68
Allen, Louisiana
102 (±4.3%) 1.20 (±70.8%) 58.040 (±2.9%) 247.78 (±1.9%)
67
Lake, Ohio
73 (±1.3%) 2.61 (±11.1%) 45.351 (±1.5%) 200.69 (±0.6%)
66
Lee, Alabama
73 (±2.6%) 3.01 (±9.7%) 50.992 (±3.8%) 148.39 (±2.2%)
65
Bartholomew, Indiana
57 (±0.8%) 6.67 (±3.4%) 28.309 (±2.4%) 130.95 (±0.8%)
64
Elmore, Alabama
62 (±1.1%) 2.20 (±5.1%) 37.589 (±1.8%) 195.07 (±0.5%)
63
Mesa, Colorado
2458775 (±605.2%) 1.60 (±38.9%) 126.054 (±27.1%) 800.61 (±32.9%)
62
Fayette, Georgia
83 (±2.1%) 2.24 (±27.6%) 55.464 (±1.7%) 221.09 (±1.1%)
61
Monroe, Georgia
70 (±1.4%) 3.27 (±43.3%) 45.103 (±1.5%) 210.70 (±0.6%)
60
Butte, California
63 (±1.0%) fiterr (±err) 31.759 (±1.5%) 245.10 (±0.2%)
59
Union, Arkansas
124 (±10.4%) 6.46 (±6.8%) 69.550 (±4.9%) 296.87 (±4.0%)
58
Putnam, Florida
60 (±1.8%) fiterr (±err) 38.291 (±2.4%) 220.34 (±0.6%)
57
Marshall, Alabama
58 (±1.8%) 2.52 (±6.1%) 39.905 (±2.6%) 198.83 (±0.8%)
56
Faulkner, Arkansas
3422781 (±283.3%) fiterr (±err) 199.466 (±12.3%) 1172.75 (±17.0%)
55
Dale, Alabama
53 (±0.8%) 3.26 (±4.9%) 24.809 (±2.0%) 216.98 (±0.3%)
54
Marion, Illinois
88 (±8.5%) fiterr (±err) 33.291 (±4.7%) 315.67 (±1.0%)
53
Greene, Indiana
40 (±1.2%) 15.72 (±4.2%) 25.991 (±4.1%) 134.85 (±1.2%)
52
White, Arkansas
61 (±3.0%) 0.92 (±43.6%) 39.568 (±2.6%) 271.59 (±0.7%)
51
Morgan, Alabama
57 (±3.5%) fiterr (±err) 47.768 (±2.9%) 244.66 (±1.2%)
50
Chambers, Alabama
48 (±1.2%) 6.58 (±4.4%) 42.127 (±2.4%) 130.43 (±1.2%)
49
Broomfield, Colorado
38 (±1.2%) 9.12 (±3.9%) 26.804 (±4.0%) 129.21 (±1.3%)
48
Stephens, Georgia
51 (±1.4%) 2.65 (±19.1%) 35.744 (±1.9%) 230.84 (±0.4%)
47
Colquitt, Georgia
73 (±4.4%) 2.77 (±7.3%) 69.857 (±2.9%) 238.09 (±2.6%)
46
Butts, Georgia
43 (±0.6%) 6.71 (±8.9%) 28.004 (±2.0%) 135.70 (±0.6%)
45
Limestone, Alabama
296 (±37.5%) fiterr (±err) 93.857 (±9.3%) 429.99 (±9.8%)
44
Morgan, Indiana
39 (±0.7%) 7.34 (±4.5%) 24.149 (±2.4%) 135.63 (±0.7%)
43
Okeechobee, Florida
51 (±1.7%) 2.74 (±3.4%) 36.762 (±2.0%) 250.37 (±0.4%)
42
Autauga, Alabama
40 (±2.8%) 2.59 (±6.1%) 46.723 (±3.2%) 202.47 (±1.4%)
41
Ogle, Illinois
1598431 (±1321.3%) 9.42 (±4.8%) 173.971 (±56.7%) 1044.42 (±76.3%)
40
Little River, Arkansas
41 (±1.5%) 7.52 (±7.8%) 28.316 (±2.6%) 248.89 (±0.3%)
39
Chilton, Alabama
41 (±2.2%) 0.56 (±47.0%) 32.241 (±3.1%) 245.60 (±0.5%)
38
Crawford, Arkansas
62 (±3.7%) 2.65 (±5.6%) 48.451 (±2.2%) 290.12 (±0.9%)
37
DeKalb, Alabama
75 (±4.7%) 1.78 (±9.8%) 68.157 (±2.2%) 297.88 (±1.8%)
36
Lawrence, Alabama
36 (±1.2%) 2.79 (±9.7%) 23.310 (±2.4%) 256.66 (±0.2%)
35
DeSoto, Florida
42 (±1.7%) fiterr (±err) 54.992 (±1.5%) 211.82 (±1.0%)
34
Covington, Alabama
31 (±0.8%) 0.54 (±64.2%) 27.798 (±1.9%) 195.84 (±0.4%)
33
Logan, Colorado
3199802 (±1053.5%) 4.77 (±3.1%) 209.509 (±42.2%) 1242.37 (±59.1%)
32
Cass, Indiana
1018454 (±925.9%) 1.59 (±4.6%) 254.445 (±43.4%) 1437.85 (±62.4%)
31
Escambia, Alabama
34 (±1.0%) fiterr (±err) 39.189 (±1.4%) 206.03 (±0.4%)
30
Brooks, Georgia
36 (±2.4%) 1.56 (±60.4%) 51.924 (±2.7%) 191.43 (±1.5%)
29
Lowndes, Alabama
28 (±0.6%) 4.70 (±3.1%) 27.476 (±1.7%) 150.02 (±0.5%)
28
Chicot, Arkansas
1489544 (±1509.5%) 3.04 (±5.3%) 257.651 (±68.6%) 1466.88 (±98.5%)
27
Cross, Arkansas
33 (±3.6%) 4.39 (±9.0%) 36.025 (±3.5%) 270.95 (±0.7%)
26
Washington, Florida
27 (±2.8%) 1.86 (±26.7%) 45.035 (±4.0%) 187.55 (±1.4%)
25
Assumption, Louisiana
25 (±0.9%) 5.91 (±4.2%) 33.763 (±2.2%) 141.80 (±0.8%)
24
Marengo, Alabama
26 (±1.2%) 3.73 (±4.1%) 44.828 (±1.7%) 179.38 (±0.7%)
23
Mendocino, California
22 (±0.8%) fiterr (±err) 24.037 (±2.2%) 216.53 (±0.3%)
22
Macon, Alabama
21 (±0.7%) 3.72 (±3.6%) 36.336 (±1.3%) 182.37 (±0.4%)
21
Arkansas, Arkansas
28 (±4.7%) 3.98 (±6.3%) 35.988 (±4.0%) 281.84 (±0.8%)
20
La Paz, Arizona
18 (±0.8%) 3.27 (±5.8%) 31.295 (±1.7%) 192.95 (±0.4%)
19
Bullock, Alabama
19 (±2.2%) 3.52 (±4.7%) 42.416 (±3.7%) 174.31 (±1.3%)
18
De Witt, Illinois
4727 (±158.8%) fiterr (±err) 92.695 (±14.2%) 571.18 (±14.3%)
17
Miami, Indiana
1082021 (±849.9%) 5.53 (±5.8%) 182.214 (±35.6%) 1091.25 (±48.4%)

For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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