Labor am Elm

Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People in the US

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

13 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Sat Jul 11 05:12:42 UTC 2020

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_dead death rate (err) death_rate deaths_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
23247
New York, New York
22619 (±0.2%) 11.73 (±1.1%) 11.707 (±0.8%) 99.48 (±0.1%)
4676
Cook, Illinois
4836 (±0.3%) 6.00 (±3.2%) 19.000 (±0.4%) 123.66 (±0.1%)
3690
Los Angeles, California
3862 (±1.0%) 5.58 (±6.8%) 22.394 (±1.2%) 129.99 (±0.3%)
2744
Wayne, Michigan
2694 (±0.2%) 13.86 (±1.6%) 13.845 (±0.7%) 106.92 (±0.1%)
2188
Nassau, New York
2153 (±0.4%) 5.66 (±1.1%) 11.457 (±1.3%) 103.69 (±0.2%)
2060
Essex, New Jersey
1878 (±0.9%) 12.24 (±1.5%) 15.272 (±2.3%) 109.69 (±0.4%)
2020
Bergen, New Jersey
1836 (±1.1%) 11.58 (±1.3%) 16.241 (±2.6%) 109.67 (±0.5%)
1991
Suffolk, New York
1988 (±0.3%) 5.41 (±1.6%) 14.155 (±0.9%) 109.36 (±0.2%)
1903
Middlesex, Massachusetts
1848 (±0.4%) 8.65 (±1.3%) 14.925 (±0.9%) 118.32 (±0.1%)
1633
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
1656 (±0.4%) 7.74 (±3.2%) 17.626 (±0.8%) 121.42 (±0.1%)
1432
Westchester, New York
1403 (±0.4%) 5.04 (±3.7%) 12.532 (±1.3%) 105.20 (±0.2%)
1385
Hartford, Connecticut
1369 (±0.3%) 12.95 (±1.7%) 14.730 (±0.8%) 116.05 (±0.1%)
1380
Fairfield, Connecticut
1370 (±0.2%) 9.24 (±2.1%) 14.529 (±0.6%) 111.34 (±0.1%)
1361
Middlesex, New Jersey
1287 (±1.4%) 9.27 (±2.2%) 18.897 (±2.6%) 118.02 (±0.5%)
1341
Union, New Jersey
1244 (±1.0%) 9.05 (±1.7%) 16.203 (±2.4%) 113.62 (±0.4%)
1216
Passaic, New Jersey
1121 (±1.1%) 8.19 (±2.6%) 16.436 (±2.5%) 116.67 (±0.4%)
1133
Essex, Massachusetts
1125 (±0.3%) 7.72 (±1.5%) 16.425 (±0.6%) 120.70 (±0.1%)
1097
Oakland, Michigan
1083 (±0.2%) 10.93 (±1.8%) 14.378 (±0.6%) 106.13 (±0.1%)
1092
Miami-Dade, Florida
1113 (±1.7%) 6.29 (±4.8%) 22.624 (±2.1%) 127.89 (±0.6%)
1079
New Haven, Connecticut
1085 (±0.2%) 9.83 (±2.0%) 15.551 (±0.5%) 116.37 (±0.1%)
1013
Suffolk, Massachusetts
982 (±0.5%) 5.83 (±2.6%) 14.055 (±1.2%) 115.78 (±0.2%)
1012
Maricopa, Arizona
1684 (±7.5%) 4.29 (±15.3%) 33.455 (±3.7%) 168.41 (±2.3%)
992
Ocean, New Jersey
967 (±1.0%) 11.94 (±2.2%) 19.317 (±1.7%) 119.89 (±0.4%)
954
Worcester, Massachusetts
963 (±0.2%) 8.29 (±2.0%) 16.749 (±0.4%) 126.23 (±0.1%)
923
Macomb, Michigan
895 (±0.4%) 13.85 (±1.4%) 13.831 (±1.1%) 107.05 (±0.2%)
831
Monmouth, New Jersey
823 (±1.3%) 10.78 (±2.0%) 20.505 (±2.1%) 119.86 (±0.5%)
822
Montgomery, Pennsylvania
801 (±0.6%) 11.49 (±2.5%) 15.387 (±1.5%) 118.92 (±0.2%)
817
Morris, New Jersey
732 (±1.4%) 13.28 (±1.4%) 17.008 (±3.1%) 112.03 (±0.6%)
789
Hennepin, Minnesota
805 (±0.4%) 6.05 (±4.9%) 17.454 (±0.8%) 126.32 (±0.1%)
700
Prince George’s, Maryland
711 (±0.3%) 4.94 (±5.3%) 17.944 (±0.6%) 123.91 (±0.1%)
690
Marion, Indiana
698 (±0.4%) 7.46 (±3.5%) 17.733 (±0.8%) 116.73 (±0.2%)
674
Plymouth, Massachusetts
669 (±0.5%) 8.33 (±1.9%) 16.415 (±1.1%) 120.00 (±0.2%)
672
Hampden, Massachusetts
659 (±0.5%) 11.01 (±1.8%) 15.514 (±1.2%) 113.66 (±0.2%)
668
Rockland, New York
657 (±0.3%) 5.65 (±2.7%) 12.294 (±1.2%) 104.56 (±0.2%)
664
Delaware, Pennsylvania
658 (±0.5%) 10.46 (±2.4%) 15.320 (±1.2%) 121.93 (±0.2%)
639
Erie, New York
655 (±0.4%) 9.70 (±3.7%) 17.938 (±0.8%) 120.86 (±0.2%)
632
King, Washington
609 (±0.2%) 8.02 (±2.3%) 16.758 (±0.6%) 98.06 (±0.1%)
596
Mercer, New Jersey
576 (±0.6%) 8.99 (±2.5%) 16.877 (±1.4%) 119.73 (±0.2%)
594
Bristol, Massachusetts
627 (±0.6%) 7.70 (±2.9%) 20.088 (±0.9%) 128.85 (±0.2%)
593
St. Louis, Missouri
567 (±0.6%) 11.39 (±2.6%) 16.362 (±1.4%) 116.96 (±0.3%)
578
Palm Beach, Florida
655 (±2.4%) 7.88 (±7.0%) 26.623 (±2.3%) 133.66 (±0.9%)
571
Bucks, Pennsylvania
570 (±0.3%) fiterr (±err) 14.849 (±0.7%) 120.84 (±0.1%)
568
District of Columbia, District of Columbia
561 (±0.3%) 6.81 (±3.7%) 16.781 (±0.6%) 120.41 (±0.1%)
544
Somerset, New Jersey
494 (±1.2%) 12.21 (±1.5%) 16.807 (±2.6%) 113.99 (±0.5%)
540
Camden, New Jersey
558 (±1.8%) 8.44 (±2.5%) 22.369 (±2.2%) 131.24 (±0.6%)
539
Orleans, Louisiana
523 (±0.2%) 7.57 (±1.6%) 13.098 (±0.7%) 98.75 (±0.1%)
533
Riverside, California
529 (±1.4%) 6.70 (±6.3%) 22.639 (±1.6%) 130.16 (±0.4%)
493
Baltimore, Maryland
517 (±0.3%) 7.96 (±4.6%) 19.601 (±0.5%) 130.76 (±0.1%)
489
Jefferson, Louisiana
471 (±0.4%) 6.55 (±3.0%) 13.629 (±1.3%) 102.09 (±0.2%)
484
Orange, New York
473 (±0.4%) 5.08 (±2.2%) 14.236 (±1.3%) 106.87 (±0.2%)
483
DuPage, Illinois
493 (±0.4%) 5.85 (±3.8%) 18.760 (±0.7%) 123.17 (±0.1%)
468
Clark, Nevada
434 (±0.8%) 7.44 (±5.7%) 19.288 (±1.5%) 115.59 (±0.3%)
446
Burlington, New Jersey
458 (±1.4%) 9.54 (±2.6%) 20.937 (±1.9%) 128.91 (±0.4%)
436
Dallas, Texas
517 (±2.8%) 4.27 (±8.6%) 27.542 (±2.2%) 143.08 (±0.9%)
427
Broward, Florida
399 (±0.9%) 5.84 (±4.8%) 18.690 (±1.7%) 115.40 (±0.4%)
423
Harris, Texas
490 (±3.7%) 3.64 (±5.7%) 26.976 (±3.2%) 137.97 (±1.3%)
415
San Diego, California
419 (±1.2%) 5.95 (±6.8%) 22.297 (±1.5%) 127.93 (±0.4%)
402
Orange, California
1160 (±7.0%) 5.30 (±8.2%) 38.330 (±2.4%) 194.69 (±1.8%)
398
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
405 (±1.1%) 5.76 (±7.2%) 20.568 (±1.8%) 117.25 (±0.4%)
387
Denver, Colorado
390 (±0.4%) fiterr (±err) 17.227 (±0.8%) 119.80 (±0.1%)
383
Cuyahoga, Ohio
442 (±1.4%) 7.40 (±5.1%) 24.023 (±1.5%) 135.10 (±0.5%)
377
Lancaster, Pennsylvania
358 (±0.8%) 10.98 (±3.2%) 16.231 (±1.9%) 117.81 (±0.3%)
358
Baltimore City, Maryland
356 (±0.7%) 6.51 (±4.8%) 19.017 (±1.1%) 126.01 (±0.2%)
356
Berks, Pennsylvania
364 (±0.9%) 9.52 (±2.9%) 15.953 (±1.9%) 123.67 (±0.3%)
349
Arapahoe, Colorado
358 (±0.7%) 7.80 (±2.4%) 16.754 (±1.4%) 120.05 (±0.2%)
332
Chester, Pennsylvania
330 (±0.4%) 10.56 (±3.1%) 15.715 (±0.8%) 122.85 (±0.1%)
322
Will, Illinois
322 (±0.5%) 6.69 (±5.4%) 17.116 (±1.0%) 114.98 (±0.2%)
319
Fulton, Georgia
363 (±1.2%) 7.16 (±3.8%) 23.205 (±1.4%) 127.23 (±0.4%)
315
Lehigh, Pennsylvania
322 (±0.7%) 9.16 (±2.4%) 18.921 (±1.1%) 129.96 (±0.2%)
313
Pima, Arizona
314 (±2.1%) 7.51 (±9.9%) 22.926 (±2.5%) 130.05 (±0.7%)
304
San Bernardino, California
286 (±1.3%) 5.27 (±7.9%) 21.105 (±1.9%) 126.01 (±0.5%)
290
Genesee, Michigan
283 (±0.2%) 12.08 (±1.8%) 12.475 (±0.8%) 107.00 (±0.1%)
281
Kane, Illinois
322 (±1.1%) 2.99 (±7.5%) 22.140 (±1.2%) 137.75 (±0.3%)
276
East Baton Rouge, Louisiana
272 (±0.3%) 8.49 (±5.4%) 16.140 (±0.6%) 114.14 (±0.1%)
273
Monroe, New York
284 (±0.8%) 8.14 (±4.2%) 20.217 (±1.2%) 120.20 (±0.3%)
257
Hillsborough, New Hampshire
290 (±2.1%) 8.02 (±8.2%) 18.644 (±2.6%) 147.32 (±0.4%)
254
Tarrant, Texas
268 (±1.0%) 3.79 (±5.6%) 22.940 (±1.1%) 132.26 (±0.3%)
249
New Castle, Delaware
274 (±2.0%) 6.92 (±5.6%) 22.581 (±2.3%) 132.78 (±0.6%)
248
Cobb, Georgia
280 (±1.2%) 7.38 (±3.7%) 23.332 (±1.4%) 127.66 (±0.4%)
247
Lake, Indiana
260 (±0.6%) 6.58 (±3.2%) 19.517 (±1.0%) 124.58 (±0.2%)
243
Caddo, Louisiana
248 (±1.0%) 10.96 (±3.8%) 20.114 (±1.6%) 118.77 (±0.4%)
239
Mahoning, Ohio
246 (±0.7%) 14.82 (±1.4%) 19.726 (±1.1%) 123.05 (±0.2%)
230
Ramsey, Minnesota
273 (±1.4%) 4.70 (±4.8%) 20.868 (±1.5%) 145.23 (±0.3%)
226
Atlantic, New Jersey
226 (±1.2%) 8.38 (±2.3%) 18.482 (±2.0%) 131.98 (±0.3%)
221
Pinellas, Florida
1410 (±49.5%) 5.61 (±44.2%) 52.967 (±11.2%) 248.91 (±11.9%)
214
Jefferson, Colorado
230 (±0.7%) 9.55 (±3.2%) 20.299 (±1.1%) 125.25 (±0.3%)
210
Anne Arundel, Maryland
212 (±0.5%) 5.47 (±3.9%) 17.556 (±0.9%) 119.67 (±0.2%)
209
Summit, Ohio
216 (±1.0%) 10.85 (±2.0%) 16.758 (±1.8%) 128.40 (±0.3%)
206
Hamilton, Ohio
212 (±1.0%) fiterr (±err) 20.086 (±1.5%) 125.42 (±0.3%)
204
Jefferson, Kentucky
202 (±1.1%) 6.52 (±4.9%) 19.956 (±1.9%) 117.68 (±0.4%)
194
Sussex, New Jersey
186 (±1.4%) fiterr (±err) 17.167 (±3.2%) 113.19 (±0.6%)
193
Gloucester, New Jersey
188 (±0.9%) 8.91 (±3.2%) 17.094 (±1.7%) 126.97 (±0.3%)
188
Onondaga, New York
202 (±1.0%) 7.16 (±7.7%) 18.685 (±1.5%) 133.37 (±0.3%)
187
Middlesex, Connecticut
184 (±0.7%) 15.83 (±2.4%) 17.209 (±1.3%) 118.72 (±0.2%)
186
McKinley, New Mexico
190 (±0.9%) fiterr (±err) 18.580 (±1.3%) 138.91 (±0.2%)
183
St. Tammany, Louisiana
173 (±0.5%) 11.38 (±3.1%) 14.506 (±1.3%) 109.41 (±0.2%)
182
Hillsborough, Florida
285 (±6.8%) 7.81 (±7.1%) 33.112 (±3.5%) 165.87 (±2.1%)
179
Luzerne, Pennsylvania
176 (±0.7%) 7.32 (±2.1%) 16.256 (±1.7%) 116.84 (±0.3%)
178
Snohomish, Washington
167 (±0.9%) 6.39 (±2.4%) 18.365 (±2.0%) 102.29 (±0.5%)
176
Sussex, Delaware
177 (±0.9%) 4.35 (±3.5%) 18.016 (±1.7%) 124.04 (±0.3%)
175
DeKalb, Georgia
204 (±1.1%) 4.88 (±4.8%) 23.078 (±1.3%) 134.01 (±0.4%)
169
Henrico, Virginia
139 (±1.2%) 8.87 (±4.6%) 13.165 (±3.8%) 108.55 (±0.6%)
167
Warren, New Jersey
151 (±0.9%) fiterr (±err) 15.670 (±2.1%) 114.58 (±0.4%)
166
Santa Clara, California
155 (±0.5%) 5.98 (±3.6%) 15.812 (±1.2%) 102.44 (±0.3%)
165
Bexar, Texas
210 (±13.4%) 5.74 (±6.5%) 36.787 (±7.7%) 154.37 (±5.6%)
162
Jefferson, Alabama
170 (±1.9%) 7.95 (±6.5%) 24.118 (±2.1%) 132.43 (±0.6%)
159
Puerto Rico
152 (±0.5%) 4.71 (±7.6%) 16.314 (±1.2%) 109.30 (±0.2%)
158
St. Louis City, Missouri
163 (±0.6%) 8.28 (±3.2%) 18.847 (±1.1%) 120.91 (±0.2%)
156
Adams, Colorado
165 (±0.8%) 4.83 (±4.5%) 19.860 (±1.2%) 120.93 (±0.3%)
155
Dougherty, Georgia
150 (±0.5%) 9.03 (±2.1%) 13.229 (±1.6%) 99.99 (±0.3%)
152
Dutchess, New York
153 (±1.3%) 4.35 (±2.2%) 13.732 (±3.4%) 122.95 (±0.4%)
150
Barnstable, Massachusetts
152 (±0.7%) 11.27 (±3.4%) 18.230 (±1.3%) 125.61 (±0.2%)
149
Cumberland, New Jersey
189 (±2.3%) fiterr (±err) 23.367 (±2.1%) 148.91 (±0.6%)
148
Tulare, California
163 (±2.7%) 5.46 (±8.3%) 25.355 (±2.5%) 137.57 (±0.9%)
145
El Paso, Texas
166 (±1.4%) 4.49 (±8.1%) 22.271 (±1.4%) 145.23 (±0.4%)
144
St. Clair, Illinois
170 (±1.8%) 8.89 (±3.6%) 24.007 (±1.8%) 139.41 (±0.6%)
139
Kent, Michigan
173 (±2.1%) 2.90 (±3.6%) 24.978 (±2.0%) 139.63 (±0.7%)
138
Weld, Colorado
137 (±0.3%) 5.89 (±3.0%) 14.179 (±0.7%) 105.34 (±0.1%)
137
Mobile, Alabama
136 (±0.4%) 6.62 (±6.4%) 15.760 (±0.9%) 118.34 (±0.1%)
135
Navajo, Arizona
267 (±8.5%) 5.45 (±7.3%) 33.794 (±4.1%) 170.77 (±2.5%)
133
Allen, Indiana
151 (±7.4%) 7.08 (±5.7%) 28.248 (±6.2%) 138.20 (±2.7%)
132
Arlington, Virginia
137 (±0.7%) 6.50 (±4.0%) 16.559 (±1.5%) 125.95 (±0.2%)
127
Imperial, California
255096 (±127.8%) 1.88 (±23.2%) 82.702 (±8.3%) 472.83 (±10.6%)
125
Hunterdon, New Jersey
1133 (±116.9%) fiterr (±err) 59.274 (±25.0%) 269.22 (±28.7%)
124
Yuma, Arizona
291 (±5.8%) 0.56 (±76.9%) 26.247 (±2.4%) 185.81 (±0.9%)
123
Hidalgo, Texas
832564 (±1006.6%) 8.72 (±29.6%) 65.039 (±53.0%) 412.12 (±61.2%)
121
El Paso, Colorado
114 (±1.4%) 8.10 (±4.2%) 18.665 (±2.7%) 107.17 (±0.7%)
120
Frederick, Maryland
119 (±0.3%) 7.04 (±4.7%) 15.678 (±0.8%) 117.28 (±0.1%)
118
Johnson, Indiana
118 (±0.2%) 10.62 (±2.5%) 14.715 (±0.6%) 113.72 (±0.1%)
117
Hampshire, Massachusetts
115 (±0.7%) 12.32 (±1.2%) 16.481 (±1.3%) 126.70 (±0.2%)
114
Carroll, Maryland
124 (±1.2%) 11.29 (±3.0%) 21.552 (±1.8%) 122.38 (±0.4%)
111
San Mateo, California
116 (±0.9%) 6.01 (±4.8%) 21.519 (±1.4%) 119.33 (±0.4%)
109
Montgomery, Alabama
178 (±3.6%) 2.81 (±21.8%) 27.142 (±2.1%) 165.67 (±0.8%)
107
Washtenaw, Michigan
105 (±0.4%) 8.14 (±3.2%) 13.970 (±1.0%) 111.65 (±0.2%)
102
New London, Connecticut
106 (±0.6%) 8.90 (±1.9%) 16.599 (±1.3%) 123.38 (±0.2%)
101
Apache, Arizona
182 (±5.8%) 5.78 (±4.9%) 28.964 (±3.0%) 171.94 (±1.4%)
100
Sarasota, Florida
102 (±0.8%) 10.51 (±9.1%) 19.276 (±1.3%) 120.08 (±0.3%)
99
Loudoun, Virginia
98 (±1.5%) 3.85 (±8.6%) 19.925 (±2.1%) 134.32 (±0.4%)
98
Douglas, Nebraska
271 (±19.2%) fiterr (±err) 33.238 (±7.4%) 186.79 (±4.4%)
97
Coconino, Arizona
98 (±0.6%) 6.46 (±5.5%) 19.171 (±1.2%) 117.10 (±0.2%)
96
Mohave, Arizona
119 (±2.8%) 9.53 (±9.8%) 24.170 (±2.4%) 150.64 (±0.7%)
94
Dakota, Minnesota
102 (±1.9%) fiterr (±err) 18.505 (±2.5%) 144.29 (±0.4%)
93
Howard, Maryland
103 (±1.1%) 5.06 (±5.2%) 22.213 (±1.2%) 135.23 (±0.3%)
92
Kent, Delaware
98 (±0.9%) 6.36 (±3.8%) 19.967 (±1.3%) 129.24 (±0.3%)
90
Lafourche, Louisiana
85 (±0.9%) 11.03 (±2.7%) 16.684 (±2.0%) 114.17 (±0.4%)
89
Kern, California
125 (±4.3%) 4.76 (±8.7%) 27.568 (±2.7%) 159.70 (±1.1%)
88
Contra Costa, California
611 (±66.3%) fiterr (±err) 58.255 (±15.2%) 258.13 (±17.6%)
87
Fresno, California
127 (±5.3%) 3.48 (±8.1%) 26.135 (±3.4%) 161.68 (±1.3%)
86
Washoe, Nevada
85 (±1.1%) fiterr (±err) 21.350 (±1.6%) 123.90 (±0.4%)
85
Collier, Florida
97 (±3.1%) 5.93 (±8.3%) 24.835 (±3.0%) 139.05 (±1.0%)
84
Ouachita, Louisiana
115 (±3.3%) 7.09 (±6.1%) 28.669 (±2.3%) 149.48 (±1.0%)
83
Linn, Iowa
83 (±0.4%) 8.08 (±2.9%) 14.632 (±1.0%) 113.49 (±0.2%)
82
Pinal, Arizona
186 (±26.4%) 5.24 (±8.4%) 38.959 (±11.1%) 183.29 (±8.3%)
81
Clayton, Georgia
112 (±4.9%) 6.57 (±4.9%) 29.227 (±3.9%) 140.64 (±1.8%)
78
Sacramento, California
67 (±1.1%) 5.06 (±4.7%) 17.423 (±2.4%) 104.15 (±0.6%)
77
Charlotte, Florida
81 (±0.8%) 12.01 (±5.2%) 16.913 (±1.5%) 127.60 (±0.2%)
76
Rapides, Louisiana
243 (±12.3%) 6.04 (±16.4%) 39.877 (±4.0%) 200.83 (±3.1%)
75
St. Charles, Missouri
73 (±0.9%) 9.77 (±2.9%) 17.730 (±1.9%) 115.45 (±0.4%)
74
Duval, Florida
82 (±1.5%) 4.81 (±5.1%) 25.425 (±1.5%) 131.00 (±0.5%)
73
Boulder, Colorado
71 (±0.4%) 6.88 (±2.8%) 14.060 (±1.1%) 114.30 (±0.2%)
72
Oklahoma, Oklahoma
73 (±0.9%) 5.75 (±5.3%) 20.065 (±1.5%) 115.00 (±0.4%)
71
Cameron, Texas
88 (±6.6%) 7.63 (±6.3%) 29.209 (±4.9%) 148.05 (±2.2%)
70
Madison, Illinois
71 (±0.7%) fiterr (±err) 16.075 (±1.5%) 125.79 (±0.2%)
69
Tallapoosa, Alabama
70 (±1.1%) 15.16 (±2.4%) 13.184 (±3.0%) 122.21 (±0.4%)
68
Lorain, Ohio
66 (±0.7%) 8.10 (±2.6%) 14.126 (±1.9%) 117.20 (±0.3%)
67
San Joaquin, California
71 (±5.6%) 6.14 (±7.0%) 30.654 (±4.8%) 130.11 (±2.5%)
66
Cumberland, Pennsylvania
64 (±0.9%) 8.86 (±1.9%) 15.438 (±1.9%) 126.22 (±0.3%)
65
Kankakee, Illinois
74 (±1.8%) 7.91 (±7.0%) 22.766 (±2.3%) 127.76 (±0.6%)
64
Tolland, Connecticut
65 (±0.4%) 7.86 (±2.6%) 16.595 (±0.9%) 108.64 (±0.2%)
63
Pulaski, Arkansas
104 (±6.2%) 5.24 (±6.0%) 33.884 (±3.6%) 157.27 (±2.2%)
61
Chesterfield, Virginia
95 (±19.3%) 4.08 (±8.4%) 38.613 (±12.8%) 152.83 (±8.7%)
60
Ascension, Louisiana
58 (±0.6%) 7.53 (±3.2%) 14.911 (±1.6%) 104.81 (±0.3%)
59
St. Lucie, Florida
66 (±8.5%) 7.06 (±18.6%) 30.427 (±7.0%) 135.86 (±3.5%)
58
Howard, Indiana
74 (±3.7%) 11.34 (±6.1%) 22.123 (±3.4%) 150.47 (±0.8%)
57
Elkhart, Indiana
55 (±4.9%) fiterr (±err) 24.420 (±4.8%) 139.07 (±1.5%)
56
Franklin, Massachusetts
53 (±0.9%) 16.18 (±1.4%) 16.370 (±2.4%) 103.26 (±0.5%)
55
Muscogee, Georgia
2166 (±95.8%) 4.38 (±19.3%) 66.527 (±13.0%) 335.75 (±15.3%)
54
Orleans, New York
60 (±2.4%) 18.64 (±3.1%) 20.015 (±3.1%) 138.17 (±0.6%)
53
Ventura, California
59 (±2.4%) 5.71 (±7.1%) 27.186 (±2.3%) 130.74 (±0.9%)
52
Douglas, Colorado
54 (±1.1%) 7.84 (±3.3%) 18.446 (±2.2%) 117.40 (±0.4%)
51
St. Mary’s, Maryland
71 (±5.0%) 7.06 (±11.0%) 22.888 (±4.2%) 153.79 (±1.1%)
50
San Francisco, California
50 (±0.7%) 2.56 (±6.1%) 19.118 (±1.4%) 110.53 (±0.3%)
49
St. Charles, Louisiana
46 (±0.6%) 8.08 (±2.6%) 12.630 (±2.1%) 99.45 (±0.3%)
48
Iberia, Louisiana
45 (±0.7%) 10.29 (±4.3%) 16.629 (±1.4%) 118.22 (±0.3%)
47
Hall, Nebraska
47 (±1.4%) 3.10 (±4.8%) 15.163 (±3.2%) 120.34 (±0.5%)
46
Morgan, Colorado
47 (±1.0%) 7.51 (±2.2%) 14.136 (±2.7%) 123.68 (±0.3%)
45
Upson, Georgia
44 (±1.2%) 15.81 (±2.8%) 17.877 (±2.5%) 120.24 (±0.4%)
44
Boone, Indiana
40 (±1.0%) fiterr (±err) 13.920 (±2.9%) 114.62 (±0.4%)
43
Iberville, Louisiana
43 (±0.3%) 7.53 (±3.1%) 13.940 (±0.9%) 106.14 (±0.2%)
42
Bartow, Georgia
40 (±0.6%) 8.73 (±3.5%) 13.396 (±2.0%) 103.02 (±0.3%)
41
Bibb, Georgia
45 (±1.5%) 7.58 (±4.7%) 20.413 (±2.0%) 135.11 (±0.4%)
40
Yolo, California
25 (±1.5%) 16.31 (±4.0%) 12.732 (±4.7%) 111.36 (±0.7%)
39
Kings, California
322617 (±466.7%) 2.89 (±11.7%) 71.639 (±25.3%) 439.92 (±30.4%)
38
Chatham, Georgia
48 (±2.5%) 6.93 (±8.9%) 25.728 (±2.3%) 140.30 (±0.8%)
37
Lee, Alabama
35 (±0.6%) 5.98 (±3.9%) 12.319 (±2.0%) 107.13 (±0.3%)
36
Martin, Florida
65113 (±298.5%) 5.74 (±14.1%) 100.301 (±19.8%) 551.18 (±26.6%)
35
Washington, Arkansas
731297 (±594.9%) 2.47 (±60.0%) 92.425 (±29.2%) 548.07 (±38.4%)
34
Clay, Florida
36 (±0.8%) 8.42 (±3.6%) 20.498 (±1.4%) 115.01 (±0.3%)
33
Hancock, Georgia
32 (±1.2%) 16.01 (±1.8%) 11.224 (±3.5%) 140.82 (±0.3%)
32
Early, Georgia
31 (±0.6%) 13.44 (±1.4%) 12.505 (±1.8%) 111.51 (±0.2%)
31
Osceola, Florida
29 (±2.9%) 4.57 (±4.5%) 23.483 (±3.7%) 126.19 (±1.0%)
30
Marin, California
23 (±7.5%) 6.03 (±7.9%) 29.124 (±10.4%) 105.24 (±3.8%)
29
Houston, Georgia
26 (±4.0%) 7.80 (±4.4%) 25.227 (±5.9%) 110.69 (±1.8%)
28
Butler, Alabama
30 (±1.4%) 5.83 (±4.2%) 15.806 (±2.4%) 141.58 (±0.3%)
27
Walker, Alabama
423 (±105.1%) 4.92 (±40.7%) 36.540 (±18.1%) 238.77 (±12.8%)
26
Brevard, Florida
37 (±20.4%) 5.45 (±5.7%) 41.693 (±11.8%) 157.99 (±9.8%)
25
Barrow, Georgia
32 (±4.1%) 5.87 (±3.4%) 21.784 (±4.4%) 142.94 (±1.1%)
24
Shelby, Alabama
23 (±1.5%) 5.20 (±6.6%) 17.475 (±3.3%) 111.48 (±0.6%)
23
Lee, Georgia
22 (±0.6%) 6.45 (±3.2%) 11.602 (±2.8%) 93.77 (±0.4%)
22
Hale, Alabama
28 (±4.9%) 7.19 (±12.6%) 20.527 (±4.4%) 158.04 (±0.9%)
21
Suwannee, Florida
19 (±0.7%) 9.90 (±5.0%) 9.489 (±3.4%) 110.70 (±0.3%)
20
Chaffee, Colorado
20 (±1.0%) 25.35 (±2.1%) 11.533 (±3.4%) 111.45 (±0.4%)
19
Colquitt, Georgia
20 (±1.9%) 5.53 (±8.6%) 22.783 (±2.7%) 119.06 (±0.7%)
18
Jackson, West Virginia
18 (±0.6%) 11.95 (±4.7%) 7.684 (±3.2%) 115.19 (±0.2%)
17
Clinton, Illinois
17 (±0.4%) 7.16 (±6.0%) 9.462 (±1.5%) 125.81 (±0.1%)
16
Putnam, Ohio
15 (±0.7%) 16.82 (±2.5%) 9.454 (±3.1%) 117.91 (±0.2%)
13
Tate, Mississippi
1092 (±282.4%) 8.23 (±15.5%) 39.534 (±31.3%) 268.95 (±24.8%)

For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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