Labor am Elm

Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People in the US

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

17 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Sun Oct 25 07:02:05 UTC 2020

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_dead death rate (err) death_rate deaths_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
7382
Kings, New York
7286 (±0.3%) 12.09 (±0.9%) 16.442 (±1.3%) 106.05 (±0.3%)
7290
Queens, New York
7192 (±0.2%) 11.05 (±0.8%) 15.849 (±1.0%) 104.98 (±0.2%)
6989
Los Angeles, California
7384 (±0.9%) 3.76 (±4.5%) 38.353 (±1.2%) 166.43 (±0.5%)
4985
Bronx, New York
4891 (±0.3%) 10.31 (±0.7%) 16.470 (±1.2%) 105.61 (±0.3%)
3605
Miami-Dade, Florida
5886 (±2.9%) 2.51 (±20.9%) 54.090 (±1.8%) 233.32 (±1.2%)
3538
Maricopa, Arizona
3893 (±1.1%) fiterr (±err) 32.806 (±1.5%) 196.82 (±0.4%)
3192
New York, New York
3160 (±0.3%) 10.82 (±0.9%) 16.931 (±1.1%) 106.79 (±0.3%)
3045
Wayne, Michigan
2855 (±0.3%) 11.93 (±1.9%) 15.479 (±1.3%) 108.19 (±0.3%)
2775
Harris, Texas
3261 (±1.3%) 1.48 (±15.7%) 38.014 (±1.4%) 202.30 (±0.5%)
2245
Middlesex, Massachusetts
2058 (±0.4%) 9.41 (±0.9%) 18.346 (±1.6%) 121.02 (±0.4%)
2140
Essex, New Jersey
2094 (±0.4%) 11.28 (±1.0%) 18.741 (±1.5%) 112.84 (±0.4%)
2019
Suffolk, New York
2001 (±0.1%) 4.93 (±1.1%) 14.307 (±0.6%) 109.50 (±0.1%)
1853
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
1756 (±0.3%) 6.55 (±2.2%) 19.435 (±0.9%) 123.17 (±0.2%)
1561
Palm Beach, Florida
1970 (±1.3%) 2.60 (±8.0%) 48.100 (±1.0%) 203.04 (±0.6%)
1526
Hudson, New Jersey
1498 (±0.4%) 8.03 (±1.1%) 18.668 (±1.4%) 114.71 (±0.4%)
1520
Broward, Florida
2331 (±4.2%) 1.68 (±33.7%) 51.264 (±2.8%) 223.31 (±1.8%)
1491
Clark, Nevada
2418 (±4.3%) 1.81 (±21.5%) 54.131 (±2.6%) 227.51 (±1.9%)
1470
Westchester, New York
1438 (±0.2%) 4.51 (±2.3%) 13.129 (±1.0%) 105.65 (±0.2%)
1464
Hartford, Connecticut
1417 (±0.2%) 11.59 (±1.2%) 15.662 (±0.7%) 116.83 (±0.1%)
1444
Orange, California
1833 (±0.7%) 2.49 (±5.6%) 43.332 (±0.5%) 217.34 (±0.2%)
1430
Fairfield, Connecticut
1405 (±0.1%) 8.33 (±1.4%) 15.215 (±0.6%) 111.90 (±0.1%)
1392
Bexar, Texas
1408 (±0.8%) fiterr (±err) 24.213 (±1.6%) 211.37 (±0.2%)
1337
Essex, Massachusetts
1236 (±0.4%) 8.04 (±1.1%) 19.456 (±1.4%) 123.35 (±0.3%)
1261
Passaic, New Jersey
1243 (±0.4%) 7.53 (±1.5%) 19.548 (±1.4%) 119.75 (±0.3%)
1217
Dallas, Texas
1476 (±1.1%) 2.18 (±5.9%) 42.091 (±1.1%) 198.57 (±0.5%)
1168
Suffolk, Massachusetts
1087 (±0.4%) 5.85 (±1.3%) 17.290 (±1.6%) 118.13 (±0.4%)
1157
Worcester, Massachusetts
1060 (±0.4%) 9.01 (±0.9%) 19.911 (±1.4%) 128.84 (±0.3%)
1123
New Haven, Connecticut
1105 (±0.1%) 8.92 (±1.3%) 16.057 (±0.4%) 116.81 (±0.1%)
1101
Norfolk, Massachusetts
1013 (±0.4%) 12.32 (±0.9%) 17.524 (±1.6%) 117.70 (±0.4%)
1094
Richmond, New York
1079 (±0.2%) 7.71 (±1.3%) 16.501 (±1.1%) 105.02 (±0.3%)
1084
Macomb, Michigan
969 (±0.4%) 11.65 (±2.5%) 16.271 (±1.8%) 108.86 (±0.4%)
1072
San Bernardino, California
1750 (±3.9%) 1.79 (±6.9%) 53.880 (±2.3%) 237.33 (±1.6%)
1063
Ocean, New Jersey
1037 (±0.2%) 10.28 (±1.7%) 21.228 (±0.8%) 122.38 (±0.2%)
984
Hennepin, Minnesota
893 (±0.5%) 5.09 (±2.9%) 21.018 (±1.5%) 129.52 (±0.4%)
930
Providence, Rhode Island
862 (±0.4%) 6.58 (±2.6%) 20.579 (±1.3%) 128.25 (±0.3%)
893
Montgomery, Pennsylvania
859 (±0.3%) 9.47 (±2.1%) 17.463 (±1.1%) 120.66 (±0.2%)
872
St. Louis, Missouri
788 (±1.0%) 6.96 (±6.0%) 29.055 (±2.3%) 130.58 (±0.8%)
869
San Diego, California
950 (±1.0%) 2.80 (±6.4%) 41.429 (±1.2%) 174.98 (±0.5%)
864
Montgomery, Maryland
821 (±0.3%) 5.01 (±2.9%) 19.183 (±1.0%) 126.09 (±0.2%)
853
Prince George’s, Maryland
798 (±0.4%) 4.11 (±3.5%) 21.679 (±1.2%) 127.71 (±0.3%)
834
Morris, New Jersey
828 (±0.5%) 12.07 (±1.0%) 20.781 (±1.7%) 116.17 (±0.5%)
820
Plymouth, Massachusetts
744 (±0.4%) 9.50 (±0.9%) 19.882 (±1.4%) 123.07 (±0.3%)
816
Pinellas, Florida
889 (±1.1%) fiterr (±err) 33.346 (±1.4%) 200.68 (±0.3%)
813
Tarrant, Texas
1086 (±2.2%) 2.75 (±7.6%) 47.315 (±1.6%) 212.75 (±0.9%)
809
Hampden, Massachusetts
739 (±0.5%) 11.29 (±1.1%) 19.436 (±1.8%) 116.86 (±0.5%)
791
Marion, Indiana
745 (±0.3%) 5.86 (±3.3%) 19.767 (±1.0%) 118.66 (±0.3%)
759
Hillsborough, Florida
880 (±1.6%) 0.81 (±75.6%) 38.549 (±1.6%) 210.94 (±0.5%)
713
Erie, New York
682 (±0.2%) 8.12 (±2.4%) 19.141 (±0.7%) 122.06 (±0.2%)
685
Cuyahoga, Ohio
714 (±0.8%) 4.85 (±3.6%) 36.640 (±1.1%) 161.92 (±0.4%)
683
Rockland, New York
670 (±0.2%) 5.16 (±1.6%) 12.786 (±0.9%) 104.91 (±0.1%)
642
District of Columbia, District of Columbia
608 (±0.3%) 5.62 (±2.6%) 19.281 (±1.0%) 122.71 (±0.2%)
636
Pima, Arizona
712 (±1.0%) 1.56 (±19.4%) 37.561 (±1.3%) 172.67 (±0.5%)
627
Camden, New Jersey
609 (±0.3%) 7.75 (±1.7%) 24.327 (±0.8%) 134.81 (±0.2%)
625
Bucks, Pennsylvania
591 (±0.2%) 9.16 (±1.8%) 15.893 (±1.0%) 121.59 (±0.2%)
618
Fulton, Georgia
663 (±1.3%) 4.43 (±7.9%) 40.573 (±1.7%) 164.39 (±0.8%)
615
Polk, Florida
681 (±1.5%) fiterr (±err) 35.869 (±1.6%) 210.33 (±0.5%)
606
Fairfax, Virginia
564 (±0.4%) 3.96 (±3.3%) 21.666 (±1.4%) 130.71 (±0.4%)
593
El Paso, Texas
747 (±2.0%) 2.48 (±4.5%) 41.847 (±1.7%) 215.15 (±0.7%)
592
Orleans, Louisiana
560 (±0.3%) 6.62 (±1.9%) 15.027 (±1.6%) 100.20 (±0.4%)
583
Jefferson, Louisiana
533 (±0.5%) 5.55 (±3.3%) 18.009 (±2.2%) 105.16 (±0.6%)
567
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
530 (±0.7%) 3.63 (±6.8%) 30.181 (±1.7%) 130.21 (±0.6%)
562
Shelby, Tennessee
741 (±1.5%) 3.25 (±6.8%) 49.778 (±1.1%) 210.53 (±0.7%)
513
Duval, Florida
1625 (±6.7%) 1.15 (±70.6%) 64.767 (±2.3%) 307.27 (±1.9%)
509
Lake, Illinois
479 (±0.3%) 4.39 (±2.8%) 22.769 (±1.0%) 130.28 (±0.3%)
506
Lee, Florida
587 (±1.4%) 0.66 (±48.9%) 39.797 (±1.5%) 191.43 (±0.6%)
501
Baltimore City, Maryland
485 (±0.6%) 4.64 (±3.6%) 28.466 (±1.3%) 139.13 (±0.4%)
484
Sacramento, California
1217 (±9.5%) 2.03 (±58.1%) 60.207 (±3.8%) 283.14 (±3.0%)
474
Lancaster, Pennsylvania
440 (±0.6%) 8.28 (±2.7%) 23.467 (±1.8%) 124.86 (±0.5%)
460
Alameda, California
1406 (±10.9%) 3.13 (±6.6%) 74.452 (±3.8%) 305.77 (±4.0%)
457
East Baton Rouge, Louisiana
465 (±1.6%) 3.93 (±6.9%) 36.798 (±2.7%) 141.19 (±1.1%)
454
Cobb, Georgia
477 (±1.1%) 4.27 (±7.2%) 38.738 (±1.5%) 160.09 (±0.7%)
449
Travis, Texas
552 (±2.1%) 2.51 (±10.5%) 41.035 (±2.1%) 197.20 (±0.9%)
446
Denver, Colorado
424 (±0.3%) 4.90 (±2.6%) 19.768 (±1.0%) 122.23 (±0.2%)
440
Gwinnett, Georgia
583 (±2.7%) 2.69 (±7.2%) 49.834 (±2.1%) 199.73 (±1.3%)
436
Fresno, California
654 (±3.0%) 1.44 (±11.8%) 44.494 (±2.0%) 237.45 (±0.9%)
427
Will, Illinois
367 (±0.6%) 5.27 (±4.5%) 21.583 (±1.9%) 119.30 (±0.5%)
419
Berks, Pennsylvania
382 (±0.4%) 8.44 (±2.5%) 17.405 (±1.5%) 124.75 (±0.3%)
416
Kern, California
593 (±2.2%) 1.26 (±14.7%) 43.750 (±1.6%) 231.21 (±0.7%)
405
Allegheny, Pennsylvania
452 (±3.1%) 3.43 (±19.8%) 46.890 (±3.3%) 171.67 (±1.9%)
397
DeKalb, Georgia
477 (±1.9%) 4.41 (±6.0%) 46.117 (±1.8%) 188.64 (±1.0%)
392
Caddo, Louisiana
373 (±1.1%) 5.93 (±7.7%) 35.241 (±2.0%) 140.08 (±0.8%)
388
Santa Clara, California
786 (±14.0%) 5.58 (±7.5%) 75.548 (±6.6%) 258.13 (±7.7%)
381
Mecklenburg, North Carolina
481 (±1.6%) 1.64 (±14.4%) 46.223 (±1.4%) 196.61 (±0.8%)
378
Arapahoe, Colorado
366 (±0.2%) 5.94 (±2.6%) 17.453 (±0.9%) 120.66 (±0.2%)
377
Jefferson, Alabama
451 (±1.1%) 1.20 (±20.2%) 44.184 (±1.1%) 189.57 (±0.6%)
367
Brevard, Florida
381 (±1.3%) fiterr (±err) 30.927 (±1.6%) 223.60 (±0.3%)
365
Lehigh, Pennsylvania
349 (±0.2%) 8.47 (±2.1%) 21.066 (±0.7%) 132.47 (±0.2%)
358
Lake, Indiana
317 (±0.7%) 5.74 (±3.9%) 27.152 (±1.9%) 132.55 (±0.6%)
354
Yuma, Arizona
358 (±0.3%) 2.90 (±3.6%) 24.376 (±0.8%) 188.94 (±0.1%)
348
Jefferson, Kentucky
325 (±1.3%) 5.28 (±6.1%) 36.837 (±2.2%) 144.26 (±0.9%)
347
Kane, Illinois
324 (±0.3%) 3.30 (±3.0%) 22.956 (±0.8%) 137.98 (±0.2%)
344
Hamilton, Ohio
341 (±1.1%) 3.58 (±4.3%) 36.183 (±1.9%) 149.85 (±0.7%)
342
Marion, Florida
396 (±0.9%) fiterr (±err) 30.315 (±1.0%) 235.40 (±0.2%)
340
Greenville, South Carolina
419 (±2.0%) 1.68 (±10.2%) 42.549 (±1.9%) 205.00 (±0.8%)
339
New Castle, Delaware
317 (±0.5%) 5.10 (±3.8%) 26.882 (±1.1%) 139.21 (±0.3%)
336
Imperial, California
348 (±0.4%) 2.91 (±3.0%) 28.723 (±0.8%) 190.81 (±0.2%)
333
Genesee, Michigan
299 (±0.3%) 10.10 (±2.3%) 13.903 (±1.5%) 107.96 (±0.3%)
330
Sarasota, Florida
779 (±10.0%) 1.78 (±55.2%) 71.054 (±4.0%) 283.44 (±4.1%)
327
Manatee, Florida
385 (±2.4%) 0.80 (±64.1%) 45.641 (±2.3%) 186.17 (±1.3%)
316
Volusia, Florida
616 (±4.4%) 1.68 (±58.8%) 57.893 (±2.1%) 262.56 (±1.6%)
315
Mobile, Alabama
385 (±2.8%) 3.67 (±6.7%) 47.152 (±2.7%) 181.64 (±1.5%)
311
Northampton, Pennsylvania
299 (±0.3%) 8.74 (±2.2%) 19.794 (±1.2%) 125.90 (±0.3%)
307
Jefferson, Colorado
251 (±0.7%) 8.47 (±3.7%) 23.863 (±2.0%) 128.50 (±0.6%)
306
Fort Bend, Texas
414 (±3.8%) 2.42 (±11.2%) 41.851 (±3.2%) 218.65 (±1.3%)
300
Monroe, New York
290 (±0.2%) 6.18 (±2.7%) 20.915 (±0.7%) 120.99 (±0.2%)
298
Salt Lake, Utah
325 (±1.2%) 2.49 (±7.5%) 41.474 (±1.3%) 184.45 (±0.6%)
288
Polk, Iowa
264 (±1.1%) 3.32 (±3.9%) 30.431 (±2.3%) 147.63 (±0.7%)
287
Mahoning, Ohio
272 (±0.4%) 11.76 (±2.3%) 23.236 (±1.1%) 126.76 (±0.3%)
286
Tulare, California
303 (±0.8%) 2.50 (±7.1%) 39.182 (±1.0%) 172.55 (±0.4%)
275
Charleston, South Carolina
270 (±0.5%) fiterr (±err) 21.407 (±1.2%) 200.93 (±0.1%)
271
Yakima, Washington
276 (±0.4%) 2.90 (±4.4%) 33.736 (±0.7%) 155.14 (±0.2%)
270
Wake, North Carolina
326 (±2.4%) 1.56 (±12.6%) 39.244 (±2.4%) 209.19 (±0.8%)
269
St. Tammany, Louisiana
253 (±1.3%) 5.71 (±8.6%) 31.801 (±3.0%) 124.46 (±1.2%)
268
Anne Arundel, Maryland
239 (±0.5%) 4.51 (±3.8%) 21.986 (±1.8%) 123.52 (±0.5%)
266
Summit, Ohio
239 (±0.6%) 7.26 (±3.4%) 20.645 (±1.9%) 130.94 (±0.4%)
264
Atlantic, New Jersey
256 (±0.3%) 7.79 (±1.7%) 21.752 (±0.9%) 136.01 (±0.2%)
261
McKinley, New Mexico
256 (±0.4%) 7.20 (±2.2%) 26.369 (±1.0%) 149.74 (±0.3%)
254
Adams, Colorado
234 (±1.4%) 4.57 (±3.3%) 34.942 (±2.6%) 137.69 (±1.0%)
253
Collier, Florida
330 (±1.4%) 1.34 (±14.0%) 47.950 (±1.1%) 210.90 (±0.6%)
242
Gloucester, New Jersey
223 (±0.4%) 7.70 (±2.4%) 22.640 (±1.4%) 132.44 (±0.4%)
241
Contra Costa, California
306 (±1.6%) 2.50 (±17.8%) 45.947 (±1.3%) 207.06 (±0.7%)
238
Navajo, Arizona
249 (±0.4%) 4.31 (±2.0%) 31.459 (±0.8%) 166.53 (±0.2%)
236
Pasco, Florida
228 (±0.9%) fiterr (±err) 25.054 (±1.6%) 210.46 (±0.2%)
232
St. Louis City, Missouri
197 (±0.7%) 6.22 (±4.8%) 26.027 (±2.0%) 128.54 (±0.6%)
230
Mohave, Arizona
256 (±0.9%) 0.71 (±73.8%) 34.696 (±1.3%) 184.31 (±0.4%)
228
Snohomish, Washington
208 (±0.6%) 5.61 (±2.8%) 26.245 (±1.7%) 112.22 (±0.7%)
227
Lake, Florida
418 (±5.2%) fiterr (±err) 48.032 (±2.7%) 261.48 (±1.4%)
226
Oklahoma, Oklahoma
427 (±6.3%) 2.15 (±18.3%) 64.041 (±3.1%) 250.06 (±2.9%)
224
Calcasieu, Louisiana
305 (±3.4%) 1.72 (±55.7%) 45.640 (±2.8%) 207.80 (±1.5%)
223
Prince William, Virginia
201 (±0.7%) 2.62 (±3.0%) 26.636 (±1.7%) 144.05 (±0.5%)
221
Sussex, Delaware
200 (±0.4%) 4.25 (±2.5%) 21.937 (±1.4%) 128.17 (±0.4%)
220
Spartanburg, South Carolina
307 (±2.4%) 0.87 (±45.3%) 44.222 (±1.8%) 225.20 (±0.8%)
219
Pierce, Washington
267 (±2.4%) 6.50 (±5.0%) 48.732 (±2.2%) 181.41 (±1.4%)
218
St. Clair, Illinois
194 (±0.8%) 5.09 (±4.7%) 29.403 (±1.7%) 146.08 (±0.5%)
217
Pinal, Arizona
242 (±1.1%) 1.46 (±17.6%) 35.226 (±1.5%) 189.27 (±0.4%)
206
Unassigned, Louisiana
201 (±4.2%) fiterr (±err) 41.536 (±6.0%) 148.32 (±2.9%)
205
Guilford, North Carolina
193 (±0.5%) 3.73 (±6.2%) 32.146 (±0.9%) 155.96 (±0.3%)
204
Pulaski, Arkansas
806 (±13.1%) 2.19 (±18.5%) 82.130 (±3.8%) 344.91 (±4.3%)
203
Lexington, South Carolina
255 (±1.9%) 1.53 (±27.3%) 46.725 (±1.5%) 213.23 (±0.8%)
201
York, Pennsylvania
283 (±2.0%) 6.58 (±6.5%) 50.572 (±1.3%) 230.08 (±0.8%)
200
Tulsa, Oklahoma
279 (±3.0%) 0.59 (±45.1%) 56.229 (±2.0%) 215.83 (±1.6%)
198
Sussex, New Jersey
197 (±0.4%) 15.30 (±0.9%) 18.961 (±1.6%) 114.88 (±0.4%)
197
Montgomery, Alabama
191 (±0.5%) 2.26 (±5.8%) 30.167 (±1.0%) 169.56 (±0.3%)
196
Middlesex, Connecticut
192 (±0.2%) 13.91 (±1.4%) 18.338 (±0.7%) 119.89 (±0.2%)
195
Kansas City, Missouri
1739787 (±218.5%) 2.34 (±10.2%) 189.487 (±11.8%) 1058.80 (±16.5%)
194
El Paso, Colorado
182 (±1.6%) 5.17 (±6.3%) 37.423 (±2.7%) 133.62 (±1.3%)
192
Johnson, Kansas
216 (±4.7%) 1.93 (±25.2%) 53.274 (±4.0%) 184.62 (±2.9%)
191
Dougherty, Georgia
173 (±0.6%) 8.65 (±2.2%) 18.583 (±2.6%) 103.37 (±0.7%)
190
Washoe, Nevada
205 (±1.6%) 4.29 (±6.9%) 44.817 (±1.7%) 177.46 (±0.9%)
189
Montgomery, Ohio
238 (±2.2%) 1.17 (±21.0%) 38.745 (±1.9%) 222.37 (±0.6%)
186
Chatham, Georgia
316 (±4.6%) 0.81 (±54.9%) 51.137 (±2.6%) 245.32 (±1.6%)
185
Starr, Texas
182 (±0.4%) 6.60 (±3.5%) 22.387 (±0.9%) 221.61 (±0.1%)
184
Kent, Michigan
173 (±0.3%) 2.78 (±2.9%) 25.744 (±0.8%) 139.79 (±0.2%)
183
Out of GA, Georgia
284 (±2.6%) 0.31 (±61.8%) 52.258 (±1.7%) 231.17 (±1.1%)
182
Barnstable, Massachusetts
168 (±0.4%) 11.97 (±1.5%) 21.581 (±1.3%) 128.71 (±0.3%)
181
Richmond, Georgia
253 (±1.9%) 1.80 (±58.0%) 47.616 (±1.4%) 220.17 (±0.7%)
180
Winnebago, Illinois
161 (±0.6%) 4.42 (±2.4%) 30.534 (±1.3%) 157.42 (±0.4%)
177
Hinds, Mississippi
193 (±1.6%) 2.97 (±8.3%) 34.989 (±2.0%) 197.60 (±0.6%)
175
Clayton, Georgia
216 (±2.0%) 4.20 (±7.1%) 47.319 (±1.8%) 188.38 (±1.0%)
174
Muscogee, Georgia
216 (±1.4%) 1.49 (±16.1%) 38.812 (±1.4%) 207.41 (±0.5%)
173
Hall, Georgia
285 (±5.5%) 3.68 (±4.4%) 58.832 (±3.3%) 229.80 (±2.6%)
172
Warren, New Jersey
170 (±0.4%) 13.20 (±0.8%) 19.249 (±1.4%) 117.82 (±0.3%)
169
Denton, Texas
12437688 (±904.9%) 2.50 (±12.6%) 238.113 (±39.5%) 1358.47 (±57.3%)
168
Apache, Arizona
170 (±0.3%) 5.83 (±2.4%) 28.166 (±0.5%) 169.23 (±0.1%)
165
St. Joseph, Indiana
206 (±7.1%) 5.95 (±5.5%) 55.967 (±4.8%) 213.93 (±3.7%)
164
Ventura, California
272 (±3.1%) 1.63 (±16.4%) 55.097 (±1.8%) 233.78 (±1.3%)
163
Dutchess, New York
155 (±0.4%) 3.93 (±1.6%) 13.953 (±2.0%) 123.03 (±0.3%)
162
Cumberland, New Jersey
160 (±0.3%) 4.97 (±1.3%) 19.924 (±0.9%) 143.30 (±0.2%)
160
Ouachita, Louisiana
164 (±0.6%) 3.98 (±7.5%) 36.905 (±0.8%) 169.55 (±0.3%)
159
San Mateo, California
146 (±0.8%) 4.12 (±6.4%) 30.350 (±1.8%) 131.04 (±0.7%)
157
Charlotte, Florida
169 (±3.4%) 4.25 (±14.9%) 45.622 (±3.8%) 171.97 (±2.0%)
155
Merced, California
156 (±0.9%) fiterr (±err) 23.806 (±1.6%) 218.07 (±0.2%)
154
Madison, Illinois
299 (±14.3%) 3.60 (±17.4%) 68.941 (±7.4%) 246.79 (±7.5%)
153
Hampshire, Massachusetts
141 (±0.6%) 13.90 (±1.1%) 23.366 (±1.7%) 133.19 (±0.5%)
152
Saginaw, Michigan
133 (±0.5%) 8.60 (±3.4%) 16.632 (±2.0%) 117.81 (±0.4%)
150
Anoka, Minnesota
130 (±0.8%) 4.27 (±4.0%) 22.577 (±2.4%) 142.25 (±0.5%)
147
Coconino, Arizona
141 (±0.9%) 4.82 (±3.4%) 32.155 (±1.9%) 133.90 (±0.7%)
145
Maverick, Texas
169 (±1.2%) fiterr (±err) 31.728 (±1.3%) 233.01 (±0.3%)
143
Litchfield, Connecticut
139 (±0.1%) 9.08 (±1.2%) 13.969 (±0.8%) 111.18 (±0.1%)
140
San Francisco, California
686 (±29.4%) 3.30 (±6.0%) 100.192 (±7.9%) 389.32 (±10.4%)
138
Lafayette, Louisiana
175 (±2.2%) fiterr (±err) 43.996 (±2.0%) 197.91 (±1.0%)
137
Elkhart, Indiana
147 (±1.4%) 2.47 (±4.0%) 41.375 (±1.4%) 189.96 (±0.6%)
136
New London, Connecticut
111 (±0.6%) 9.14 (±2.1%) 18.330 (±2.5%) 124.58 (±0.5%)
135
Lauderdale, Mississippi
133 (±1.7%) 9.48 (±2.8%) 37.479 (±2.8%) 148.21 (±1.1%)
134
Sonoma, California
149 (±1.1%) 1.04 (±13.1%) 29.376 (±1.4%) 225.77 (±0.2%)
133
Hendricks, Indiana
120 (±0.6%) 7.51 (±2.7%) 24.978 (±1.8%) 129.21 (±0.5%)
132
Bay, Florida
133 (±1.5%) fiterr (±err) 27.600 (±2.1%) 225.77 (±0.3%)
131
Butler, Ohio
209 (±5.7%) 3.86 (±4.6%) 57.770 (±3.2%) 237.49 (±2.5%)
130
Okaloosa, Florida
145 (±1.4%) 2.39 (±72.2%) 29.843 (±1.7%) 228.72 (±0.3%)
129
Johnson, Indiana
121 (±0.2%) 7.99 (±2.7%) 15.291 (±1.0%) 114.03 (±0.2%)
128
Lafourche, Louisiana
118 (±1.0%) 5.02 (±10.3%) 29.949 (±2.4%) 127.71 (±0.9%)
127
Sedgwick, Kansas
115535 (±194.8%) 1.96 (±23.1%) 169.509 (±14.4%) 893.81 (±19.9%)
126
Hunterdon, New Jersey
129 (±1.0%) 10.98 (±1.5%) 24.477 (±2.8%) 138.30 (±0.7%)
125
Val Verde, Texas
124 (±1.9%) 6.31 (±5.4%) 25.347 (±3.2%) 221.32 (±0.4%)
124
Howard, Maryland
122 (±0.3%) 3.86 (±3.5%) 27.081 (±0.8%) 142.66 (±0.2%)
123
Tangipahoa, Louisiana
205 (±5.8%) 3.36 (±12.2%) 57.379 (±3.6%) 222.63 (±2.8%)
122
Jackson, Missouri
183 (±2.4%) 1.48 (±30.0%) 54.396 (±1.5%) 228.82 (±1.0%)
120
Santa Barbara, California
151 (±2.9%) 2.13 (±8.4%) 39.288 (±2.8%) 212.53 (±1.0%)
118
Forsyth, North Carolina
168 (±2.9%) fiterr (±err) 49.303 (±1.9%) 227.93 (±1.1%)
117
Clay, Florida
300 (±8.3%) 1.96 (±59.8%) 71.518 (±3.3%) 285.71 (±3.3%)
116
Benton, Arkansas
268 (±9.3%) fiterr (±err) 58.039 (±3.9%) 283.39 (±2.8%)
115
Rowan, North Carolina
828 (±47.4%) 3.57 (±5.1%) 104.188 (±11.0%) 425.24 (±14.4%)
114
Hamilton, Indiana
105 (±0.4%) 6.08 (±5.2%) 15.121 (±1.7%) 111.08 (±0.3%)
113
Rutherford, Tennessee
195 (±3.9%) 2.20 (±8.5%) 60.536 (±2.1%) 244.05 (±1.7%)
112
Leon, Florida
3313135 (±236.4%) 0.99 (±63.5%) 167.031 (±11.0%) 975.93 (±15.0%)
111
Highlands, Florida
7555884 (±614.6%) 0.79 (±75.9%) 202.375 (±26.6%) 1172.43 (±37.7%)
110
Northumberland, Pennsylvania
11768 (±62.5%) 9.79 (±8.9%) 101.407 (±6.6%) 552.68 (±7.6%)
109
Gaston, North Carolina
140 (±3.5%) 0.79 (±72.2%) 41.874 (±2.6%) 232.25 (±1.0%)
108
Marion, Oregon
123 (±1.4%) 4.11 (±5.3%) 44.517 (±1.4%) 183.43 (±0.7%)
107
St. John the Baptist, Louisiana
93 (±0.6%) 9.98 (±2.7%) 16.665 (±2.9%) 101.56 (±0.7%)
106
Troup, Georgia
116 (±0.8%) fiterr (±err) 34.797 (±1.0%) 194.92 (±0.3%)
105
Rockingham, New Hampshire
99 (±0.5%) 6.50 (±2.4%) 17.091 (±1.9%) 133.95 (±0.3%)
104
Virginia Beach, Virginia
202 (±5.6%) 2.07 (±18.2%) 62.139 (±2.7%) 254.37 (±2.3%)
102
Jefferson, Arkansas
531834 (±379.9%) 5.01 (±6.4%) 211.823 (±22.3%) 1149.01 (±31.8%)
101
Cherokee, Georgia
125 (±2.2%) 3.96 (±5.9%) 47.953 (±2.0%) 189.67 (±1.2%)
100
Acadia, Louisiana
110 (±1.2%) fiterr (±err) 33.649 (±1.8%) 178.69 (±0.5%)
99
Durham, North Carolina
93 (±0.8%) 2.31 (±7.1%) 29.427 (±1.9%) 140.66 (±0.6%)
98
Black Hawk, Iowa
97 (±2.4%) 3.75 (±3.0%) 38.811 (±3.9%) 151.43 (±1.4%)
97
Victoria, Texas
104 (±1.3%) fiterr (±err) 24.636 (±2.3%) 216.29 (±0.3%)
96
Madison, Indiana
70 (±0.9%) 11.66 (±3.4%) 14.753 (±4.4%) 107.46 (±0.9%)
95
Newton, Georgia
142 (±4.4%) 3.15 (±13.5%) 43.529 (±3.1%) 235.35 (±1.4%)
94
Bartow, Georgia
806854 (±857.9%) 3.74 (±12.1%) 268.794 (±48.9%) 1441.90 (±71.6%)
93
Walker, Alabama
88 (±0.9%) fiterr (±err) 24.864 (±2.1%) 192.62 (±0.3%)
90
Sebastian, Arkansas
270 (±10.4%) 2.92 (±4.4%) 54.822 (±3.6%) 302.99 (±2.4%)
89
Cabarrus, North Carolina
137 (±6.5%) 3.35 (±15.5%) 60.173 (±3.8%) 231.22 (±3.2%)
88
Columbiana, Ohio
73 (±1.2%) 5.38 (±3.7%) 25.158 (±3.5%) 125.17 (±1.1%)
87
Tallapoosa, Alabama
80 (±0.6%) 10.22 (±4.0%) 17.634 (±2.4%) 124.37 (±0.5%)
86
Laurens, Georgia
90 (±1.0%) 3.72 (±68.9%) 23.934 (±1.5%) 238.15 (±0.2%)
85
Boulder, Colorado
77 (±0.4%) 4.81 (±3.9%) 16.612 (±1.6%) 116.08 (±0.3%)
84
Jackson, Florida
83 (±0.5%) 3.13 (±20.4%) 21.076 (±1.2%) 215.22 (±0.1%)
83
Kings, California
84 (±0.6%) 1.88 (±9.5%) 26.755 (±1.1%) 188.70 (±0.2%)
81
Harford, Maryland
72 (±0.5%) 4.78 (±3.5%) 19.945 (±1.7%) 132.02 (±0.4%)
80
St. Johns, Florida
85 (±1.5%) fiterr (±err) 29.778 (±2.1%) 216.46 (±0.4%)
79
Livingston, Louisiana
93 (±2.2%) 1.93 (±10.7%) 45.525 (±2.3%) 175.39 (±1.2%)
78
Suwannee, Florida
162 (±11.1%) 2.45 (±63.5%) 63.534 (±5.5%) 255.94 (±4.8%)
77
Habersham, Georgia
79 (±1.3%) 8.25 (±3.7%) 38.962 (±1.7%) 171.40 (±0.7%)
76
Richmond City, Virginia
113 (±6.1%) 2.36 (±5.2%) 67.220 (±3.8%) 222.17 (±3.7%)
75
Carroll, Georgia
80 (±1.9%) 4.10 (±9.8%) 42.516 (±2.3%) 165.21 (±1.1%)
74
Solano, California
136 (±8.4%) 1.62 (±13.5%) 61.970 (±4.4%) 244.63 (±3.8%)
73
Cochise, Arizona
73 (±0.6%) 3.98 (±2.6%) 23.624 (±1.4%) 197.46 (±0.2%)
72
Douglas, Georgia
80 (±1.0%) 3.78 (±8.4%) 38.635 (±1.4%) 168.82 (±0.6%)
71
Washington, Louisiana
65 (±0.7%) 6.26 (±5.3%) 28.484 (±1.7%) 131.76 (±0.6%)
70
Gila, Arizona
65 (±1.1%) 6.45 (±3.7%) 27.655 (±1.8%) 208.76 (±0.3%)
69
Sumter, Georgia
60 (±0.7%) 11.01 (±2.6%) 23.514 (±2.2%) 119.06 (±0.7%)
68
Mississippi, Arkansas
90 (±5.1%) 1.85 (±77.5%) 35.782 (±3.7%) 251.73 (±1.0%)
67
Calhoun, Michigan
49 (±1.2%) 8.93 (±3.8%) 31.087 (±2.5%) 139.72 (±0.8%)
66
Lee, Alabama
75 (±5.3%) 4.46 (±7.7%) 52.333 (±6.0%) 151.08 (±4.2%)
65
Santa Cruz, Arizona
64 (±0.5%) 2.41 (±4.1%) 22.849 (±1.4%) 185.03 (±0.2%)
64
Douglas, Colorado
60 (±0.4%) 5.39 (±4.7%) 21.933 (±1.5%) 120.39 (±0.4%)
63
Shelby, Alabama
127 (±10.4%) 3.52 (±10.1%) 72.944 (±4.9%) 260.36 (±5.3%)
62
Garland, Arkansas
74 (±1.8%) 4.45 (±59.0%) 30.503 (±1.9%) 240.77 (±0.3%)
61
Vanderburgh, Indiana
86324 (±168.9%) 2.68 (±16.7%) 142.983 (±11.4%) 792.83 (±15.0%)
60
Coffee, Georgia
204 (±12.6%) 3.34 (±8.4%) 78.872 (±4.2%) 321.70 (±4.5%)
59
Floyd, Georgia
373712 (±466.8%) 1.08 (±47.5%) 211.223 (±26.6%) 1152.79 (±37.9%)
58
Yolo, California
66 (±2.7%) fiterr (±err) 43.306 (±3.3%) 164.62 (±1.7%)
57
Placer, California
287 (±21.4%) 1.40 (±60.4%) 82.017 (±5.6%) 359.87 (±6.2%)
56
Larimer, Colorado
74 (±5.1%) 4.66 (±5.3%) 57.560 (±4.4%) 177.81 (±3.7%)
55
Monroe, Georgia
81 (±3.4%) 4.97 (±43.6%) 49.299 (±2.4%) 223.02 (±1.4%)
54
Gadsden, Florida
68 (±2.5%) 3.11 (±12.5%) 37.655 (±2.2%) 228.05 (±0.7%)
53
Elmore, Alabama
54 (±1.2%) 2.11 (±7.3%) 31.941 (±1.9%) 186.62 (±0.5%)
52
Butte, California
76 (±4.1%) fiterr (±err) 36.119 (±2.9%) 253.23 (±0.8%)
51
Dale, Alabama
49 (±1.0%) 3.67 (±6.0%) 21.564 (±2.4%) 214.51 (±0.2%)
50
Marshall, Alabama
57 (±3.7%) 2.68 (±6.4%) 39.461 (±3.9%) 197.97 (±1.4%)
49
Union, Arkansas
405965 (±534.0%) 7.45 (±5.9%) 199.111 (±29.8%) 1100.25 (±41.9%)
48
Morgan, Colorado
47 (±0.3%) 7.11 (±1.2%) 14.146 (±1.5%) 123.66 (±0.2%)
47
Clarke, Georgia
1237815 (±773.5%) 1.18 (±26.2%) 252.497 (±37.9%) 1403.23 (±55.2%)
46
Mitchell, Georgia
43 (±0.7%) 8.64 (±2.7%) 20.705 (±3.2%) 104.97 (±1.0%)
45
Independence, Arkansas
442 (±49.0%) fiterr (±err) 57.836 (±9.6%) 363.17 (±6.8%)
44
Chambers, Alabama
44 (±1.3%) 6.56 (±4.0%) 36.264 (±2.7%) 123.39 (±1.1%)
43
Hendry, Florida
43 (±0.5%) 2.50 (±3.9%) 28.841 (±1.1%) 156.56 (±0.3%)
42
Anchorage, Alaska
1946577 (±347.5%) 1.36 (±46.8%) 203.541 (±15.7%) 1169.04 (±22.3%)
41
Broomfield, Colorado
33 (±0.7%) 9.72 (±3.2%) 17.540 (±2.7%) 124.49 (±0.5%)
40
Butler, Alabama
38 (±0.6%) 5.83 (±2.8%) 23.220 (±1.7%) 148.80 (±0.4%)
39
Colquitt, Georgia
54 (±4.9%) 2.76 (±8.2%) 58.376 (±3.6%) 198.15 (±3.0%)
38
Little River, Arkansas
38 (±4.2%) 5.40 (±69.1%) 26.363 (±4.8%) 245.86 (±0.6%)
37
Flagler, Florida
26251 (±127.8%) 4.18 (±12.7%) 152.380 (±9.8%) 809.69 (±13.2%)
36
Appling, Georgia
1146 (±126.4%) 3.60 (±6.3%) 153.646 (±18.9%) 669.61 (±27.1%)
35
Morgan, Alabama
35 (±1.8%) fiterr (±err) 31.910 (±2.3%) 212.19 (±0.5%)
34
Hot Spring, Arkansas
32 (±1.3%) fiterr (±err) 26.157 (±2.0%) 225.09 (±0.3%)
33
Bulloch, Georgia
43 (±2.7%) fiterr (±err) 40.109 (±2.2%) 227.69 (±0.8%)
32
Chilton, Alabama
55 (±10.5%) 1.22 (±29.9%) 39.402 (±6.4%) 260.00 (±2.2%)
31
Autauga, Alabama
29 (±1.4%) 2.14 (±7.4%) 32.452 (±2.3%) 177.19 (±0.6%)
30
Escambia, Alabama
32 (±1.9%) fiterr (±err) 37.836 (±2.1%) 203.14 (±0.7%)
29
Covington, Alabama
28 (±0.8%) 0.79 (±61.5%) 23.127 (±1.9%) 192.07 (±0.3%)
28
Lowndes, Alabama
27 (±0.7%) 4.84 (±3.3%) 25.544 (±1.8%) 148.25 (±0.4%)
27
Bleckley, Georgia
22 (±1.1%) 4.50 (±36.1%) 21.056 (±2.3%) 223.88 (±0.2%)
26
Peach, Georgia
37 (±4.3%) 2.54 (±50.8%) 52.115 (±2.9%) 220.66 (±1.9%)
25
Crawford, Arkansas
110 (±21.2%) 1.85 (±8.5%) 59.207 (±6.0%) 328.45 (±4.4%)
24
Washington, Florida
30 (±7.4%) 2.49 (±27.7%) 48.391 (±7.2%) 194.24 (±3.5%)
23
Crisp, Georgia
20 (±2.3%) 7.14 (±3.2%) 38.985 (±3.7%) 152.14 (±1.4%)
22
Marengo, Alabama
23 (±1.6%) 4.04 (±4.5%) 40.245 (±2.0%) 169.72 (±0.8%)
21
Sumter, Alabama
21 (±0.9%) 5.79 (±2.4%) 31.156 (±1.9%) 156.67 (±0.5%)
20
Macon, Alabama
21 (±1.3%) 3.94 (±4.7%) 35.971 (±1.7%) 181.77 (±0.5%)
19
Lamar, Georgia
23 (±2.1%) 4.32 (±12.5%) 37.387 (±2.4%) 200.16 (±0.8%)
18
Story, Iowa
17 (±0.8%) 0.67 (±28.4%) 21.381 (±2.2%) 192.12 (±0.3%)
17
DeKalb, Tennessee
22 (±4.3%) 2.60 (±62.9%) 28.170 (±4.2%) 251.63 (±0.6%)
16
Jones, Georgia
580 (±154.8%) fiterr (±err) 90.722 (±21.2%) 484.39 (±22.8%)
15
Gulf, Florida
15 (±0.9%) 1.67 (±13.3%) 15.553 (±2.6%) 230.31 (±0.1%)

For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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