Labor am Elm

Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People in the US

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

14 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Thu Apr 15 06:29:46 UTC 2021

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_dead death rate (err) death_rate deaths_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
9511
Queens, New York
7407 (±2.6%) 13.34 (±4.7%) 32.882 (±16.3%) 2.20 (±7228.1%)
3689
Middlesex, Massachusetts
3908 (±65.2%) 12.11 (±7.7%) 113.937 (±60.5%) 98.49 (±311.3%)
2825
Essex, New Jersey
2285 (±3.8%) 11.42 (±6.7%) 43.640 (±15.3%) 1.07 (±25087.9%)
2323
Essex, Massachusetts
2466 (±69.6%) 10.57 (±9.4%) 115.704 (±60.1%) 131.64 (±219.8%)
2248
Middlesex, New Jersey
1599 (±5.8%) 10.66 (±7.0%) 51.591 (±18.2%) 4.39 (±3176.3%)
2174
Worcester, Massachusetts
4724 (±307.5%) 12.90 (±7.9%) 177.467 (±124.9%) 443.61 (±258.4%)
1826
Passaic, New Jersey
1367 (±4.1%) 9.42 (±6.6%) 44.999 (±15.0%) 37.73 (±75.5%)
1709
Marion, Indiana
8695 (±1376.2%) 6.12 (±25.0%) 279.158 (±353.8%) 876.12 (±666.9%)
1633
Fresno, California
10777 (±755.1%) 4.09 (±8.0%) 177.451 (±131.3%) 733.50 (±192.5%)
1493
Montgomery, Maryland
1682 (±78.3%) 5.88 (±15.2%) 118.729 (±64.1%) 146.54 (±219.9%)
1392
Plymouth, Massachusetts
1246 (±30.3%) 12.91 (±7.2%) 91.037 (±35.2%) 86.36 (±113.2%)
1239
Camden, New Jersey
2548 (±358.7%) 10.37 (±9.5%) 181.998 (±146.4%) 447.75 (±309.6%)
1191
Morris, New Jersey
906 (±4.4%) 11.15 (±13.5%) 46.135 (±16.5%) 1.00 (±30821.0%)
1055
Fairfax, Virginia
939 (±56.4%) 4.75 (±17.9%) 103.988 (±59.7%) 64.48 (±433.6%)
1010
Cobb, Georgia
6519 (±1726.1%) fiterr (±err) 276.066 (±373.7%) 955.14 (±657.3%)
977
Baltimore City, Maryland
3056 (±295.7%) 5.46 (±16.1%) 175.101 (±94.2%) 531.75 (±166.5%)
938
Marion, Florida
431 (±9.0%) 8.07 (±2.0%) 34.073 (±16.4%) 239.42 (±2.9%)
865
Pinal, Arizona
332 (±2.2%) 4.36 (±13.0%) 49.991 (±2.7%) 215.35 (±1.2%)
836
Brevard, Florida
557 (±10.0%) 7.88 (±3.7%) 45.329 (±11.4%) 246.01 (±3.6%)
812
Somerset, New Jersey
653 (±5.8%) 11.85 (±7.7%) 52.781 (±17.1%) -0.13 (±-2236970.7%)
811
Burlington, New Jersey
621 (±9.5%) 9.07 (±11.4%) 61.159 (±18.7%) 71.84 (±28.1%)
761
Nueces, Texas
486 (±0.5%) 3.90 (±4.0%) 26.899 (±1.5%) 214.57 (±0.2%)
717
Imperial, California
685 (±44.7%) 5.58 (±2.2%) 85.601 (±28.7%) 252.40 (±33.4%)
715
Westmoreland, Pennsylvania
12142446 (±1909.9%) 9.31 (±40.0%) 202.317 (±87.9%) 1187.02 (±119.9%)
692
Mohave, Arizona
285 (±1.0%) 12.18 (±3.2%) 40.103 (±1.9%) 191.89 (±0.6%)
685
Northampton, Pennsylvania
1639 (±1115.3%) 11.71 (±14.1%) 253.101 (±398.9%) 633.94 (±892.4%)
634
Atlantic, New Jersey
669 (±137.2%) 14.32 (±2.8%) 132.350 (±83.3%) 257.34 (±188.5%)
620
Lake, Florida
4351 (±464.7%) 6.76 (±4.7%) 158.527 (±85.4%) 659.28 (±121.0%)
607
St. Lucie, Florida
3611 (±291.7%) 6.25 (±1.9%) 153.869 (±65.3%) 591.01 (±95.9%)
604
Out of GA, Georgia
755 (±5.7%) 2.19 (±12.3%) 81.673 (±2.4%) 339.26 (±2.2%)
506
Collier, Florida
3684 (±378.1%) fiterr (±err) 171.044 (±77.9%) 662.70 (±117.3%)
492
Yavapai, Arizona
1053 (±155.1%) 8.76 (±14.1%) 116.650 (±37.6%) 487.17 (±46.6%)
489
Osceola, Florida
6272 (±532.8%) fiterr (±err) 174.097 (±86.3%) 742.33 (±124.2%)
473
Seminole, Florida
293 (±6.2%) fiterr (±err) 34.895 (±11.8%) 222.64 (±2.5%)
468
Sussex, Delaware
910 (±131.9%) 6.75 (±9.8%) 152.935 (±56.0%) 399.21 (±105.0%)
449
Merced, California
222 (±10.9%) 1.12 (±61.8%) 41.055 (±15.3%) 234.23 (±4.0%)
446
Hall, Georgia
10383805 (±1007.9%) 6.48 (±13.2%) 340.452 (±46.9%) 1901.25 (±68.9%)
427
Dona Ana, New Mexico
93946 (±416.8%) 5.45 (±6.4%) 148.473 (±35.9%) 806.22 (±44.8%)
425
Chatham, Georgia
2995 (±412.8%) 1.49 (±36.3%) 164.735 (±81.3%) 657.83 (±119.1%)
423
Apache, Arizona
260 (±14.6%) 11.88 (±2.2%) 63.078 (±15.7%) 191.13 (±11.3%)
406
Chesterfield, Virginia
247 (±5.5%) 5.18 (±33.4%) 79.232 (±3.5%) 262.80 (±3.4%)
399
Erie, Pennsylvania
3936187 (±663.1%) 14.87 (±5.8%) 182.650 (±31.8%) 1080.59 (±42.2%)
393
Vanderburgh, Indiana
97541757 (±2477.2%) fiterr (±err) 223.853 (±88.8%) 1355.66 (±124.9%)
377
Bay, Florida
2325 (±303.1%) 5.57 (±3.4%) 137.026 (±58.7%) 585.23 (±77.9%)
373
Wichita, Texas
2186 (±28.0%) 10.13 (±7.9%) 79.398 (±5.5%) 458.77 (±4.5%)
362
Beaver, Pennsylvania
173452 (±4890.0%) 7.99 (±20.0%) 394.444 (±386.3%) 1937.58 (±583.1%)
352
Gregg, Texas
260 (±5.6%) fiterr (±err) 67.712 (±2.9%) 311.13 (±2.0%)
347
Kent, Rhode Island
215 (±12.0%) fiterr (±err) 84.429 (±11.7%) 174.29 (±14.7%)
346
Franklin, Pennsylvania
10780978 (±1002.8%) 16.14 (±4.7%) 266.785 (±43.7%) 1533.76 (±62.6%)
338
Northumberland, Pennsylvania
4945663 (±439.1%) 10.25 (±16.5%) 222.885 (±21.2%) 1279.61 (±29.5%)
325
Kent, Delaware
147 (±2.2%) 9.68 (±14.8%) 45.898 (±5.3%) 128.01 (±2.8%)
317
Blair, Pennsylvania
2031902 (±216.6%) 6.46 (±29.8%) 147.580 (±11.2%) 898.24 (±13.9%)
312
Bay, Michigan
1921050 (±1296.4%) 9.64 (±32.6%) 245.421 (±67.8%) 1370.86 (±95.9%)
306
Black Hawk, Iowa
15282656 (±806.1%) 8.86 (±3.9%) 327.432 (±34.7%) 1860.02 (±50.9%)
305
Frederick, Maryland
668 (±579.2%) 6.71 (±14.1%) 217.596 (±215.7%) 549.72 (±463.9%)
299
Rowan, North Carolina
4166 (±1194.6%) 5.75 (±16.0%) 230.020 (±188.3%) 942.30 (±291.9%)
297
Porter, Indiana
2423508 (±1506.0%) 7.19 (±9.3%) 256.180 (±77.4%) 1430.25 (±110.1%)
284
Hampshire, Massachusetts
278 (±52.8%) 16.97 (±12.3%) 103.149 (±44.3%) 167.95 (±96.3%)
282
Cochise, Arizona
95 (±1.9%) 12.20 (±2.7%) 37.081 (±3.5%) 209.85 (±0.9%)
280
Washington, Pennsylvania
198308144 (±530.7%) fiterr (±err) 257.714 (±16.5%) 1575.52 (±23.9%)
275
Walker, Alabama
118 (±1.7%) 11.81 (±3.4%) 39.041 (±2.9%) 208.45 (±0.8%)
272
Lafayette, Louisiana
1763 (±409.7%) fiterr (±err) 178.620 (±89.8%) 664.86 (±139.9%)
270
Morgan, Alabama
4857 (±104.3%) fiterr (±err) 147.399 (±12.6%) 729.37 (±16.1%)
267
Lycoming, Pennsylvania
40397201 (±1523.0%) 13.67 (±31.3%) 286.447 (±53.6%) 1701.53 (±78.1%)
266
Washington, Maryland
1143878 (±2032.7%) 14.29 (±4.7%) 263.827 (±109.0%) 1456.10 (±155.8%)
262
Alachua, Florida
205 (±2.9%) fiterr (±err) 64.933 (±1.6%) 302.50 (±1.0%)
256
Garland, Arkansas
306 (±5.9%) 6.25 (±9.1%) 65.525 (±2.6%) 337.86 (±1.7%)
255
Richmond City, Virginia
4974924 (±838.9%) 3.61 (±57.9%) 364.868 (±38.5%) 2037.30 (±56.8%)
252
Tazewell, Illinois
144192 (±964.2%) 5.15 (±6.6%) 159.430 (±70.9%) 884.18 (±90.5%)
250
St. Landry, Louisiana
2934 (±492.1%) 1.91 (±47.2%) 202.864 (±91.8%) 791.39 (±143.0%)
249
Arlington, Virginia
177 (±9.2%) fiterr (±err) 59.533 (±21.5%) 32.15 (±125.2%)
242
Washington, Tennessee
394 (±76.7%) 7.01 (±4.0%) 61.026 (±30.3%) 355.43 (±16.9%)
241
Hays, Texas
136 (±2.1%) fiterr (±err) 49.548 (±2.1%) 248.75 (±0.8%)
239
Wayne, North Carolina
1672 (±191.3%) 5.58 (±6.7%) 142.318 (±36.9%) 601.85 (±49.8%)
237
Lauderdale, Mississippi
380 (±73.8%) 11.32 (±3.8%) 117.581 (±36.9%) 313.96 (±59.7%)
232
Marin, California
553 (±158.4%) fiterr (±err) 130.243 (±54.0%) 427.62 (±81.4%)
230
Howard, Maryland
510 (±147.4%) 3.89 (±26.5%) 142.575 (±59.9%) 396.31 (±104.9%)
229
Newton, Georgia
864 (±236.9%) 4.75 (±8.9%) 137.181 (±57.9%) 528.31 (±81.2%)
227
Carroll, Maryland
198 (±34.1%) 8.19 (±19.9%) 94.917 (±40.8%) 50.74 (±303.8%)
223
Montgomery, Tennessee
4876 (±607.7%) 1.00 (±56.4%) 159.335 (±79.7%) 749.58 (±106.9%)
217
Val Verde, Texas
144 (±0.8%) 8.86 (±2.8%) 31.253 (±1.9%) 227.22 (±0.3%)
215
Durham, North Carolina
628 (±245.0%) fiterr (±err) 163.356 (±76.1%) 518.18 (±127.4%)
214
Centre, Pennsylvania
11811953 (±568.2%) fiterr (±err) 155.781 (±23.6%) 973.98 (±30.1%)
211
Union, North Carolina
618 (±271.2%) fiterr (±err) 152.582 (±67.7%) 560.97 (±100.9%)
210
Madison, Mississippi
297 (±67.6%) 7.09 (±4.1%) 103.759 (±31.0%) 327.76 (±41.3%)
208
Bowie, Texas
4224 (±652.1%) 11.10 (±6.7%) 179.911 (±91.9%) 801.77 (±130.6%)
206
Rutherford, North Carolina
1852 (±315.2%) 4.09 (±31.8%) 134.739 (±51.1%) 620.91 (±65.0%)
202
Elmore, Alabama
81 (±2.1%) 6.69 (±3.9%) 49.378 (±2.5%) 217.05 (±1.0%)
199
Cape May, New Jersey
172 (±29.6%) 11.00 (±9.3%) 87.757 (±27.7%) 166.34 (±42.5%)
198
Columbia, Georgia
354 (±107.1%) fiterr (±err) 105.369 (±34.4%) 407.47 (±41.5%)
197
Wayne, Indiana
98685 (±854.2%) 6.30 (±13.5%) 135.513 (±65.9%) 776.01 (±78.6%)
193
Butte, California
88 (±2.9%) 5.19 (±6.8%) 44.320 (±3.1%) 264.18 (±0.9%)
191
Acadia, Louisiana
838 (±262.7%) 5.92 (±4.7%) 158.701 (±70.1%) 553.05 (±109.9%)
189
Macon, Illinois
15769686 (±1589.8%) fiterr (±err) 257.661 (±65.7%) 1499.89 (±93.9%)
188
Berkeley, South Carolina
120 (±5.9%) fiterr (±err) 47.885 (±8.0%) 196.64 (±3.5%)
185
Roanoke City, Virginia
9471 (±85.1%) 5.04 (±7.5%) 148.118 (±9.3%) 754.97 (±11.8%)
183
Henderson, Texas
263 (±8.8%) 10.50 (±6.6%) 84.120 (±2.7%) 397.57 (±2.4%)
181
DeKalb, Alabama
509 (±21.4%) 6.82 (±10.4%) 113.758 (±4.4%) 517.28 (±5.1%)
178
Craighead, Arkansas
21769 (±42.6%) 2.96 (±10.0%) 136.169 (±4.2%) 733.99 (±5.0%)
174
Santa Cruz, Arizona
75 (±1.3%) 5.92 (±2.6%) 31.885 (±3.4%) 190.34 (±0.7%)
173
Putnam, Tennessee
342 (±8.1%) 5.19 (±5.7%) 81.732 (±2.7%) 377.74 (±2.4%)
171
Talladega, Alabama
521 (±89.2%) fiterr (±err) 106.858 (±20.0%) 484.74 (±22.5%)
170
Coffee, Georgia
1094 (±302.9%) 5.35 (±6.3%) 153.356 (±59.0%) 629.55 (±83.2%)
167
Chaves, New Mexico
640667 (±234.5%) 6.19 (±6.3%) 155.561 (±12.9%) 924.26 (±16.3%)
166
Saline, Arkansas
71447 (±907.2%) 3.60 (±7.6%) 166.923 (±68.3%) 911.07 (±88.7%)
165
Laurens, Georgia
125 (±4.5%) 6.88 (±4.9%) 34.309 (±7.5%) 251.51 (±1.2%)
163
Lancaster, South Carolina
86 (±1.2%) fiterr (±err) 47.932 (±1.4%) 233.34 (±0.5%)
161
Waupaca, Wisconsin
674018 (±1481.8%) 4.67 (±8.4%) 213.211 (±86.4%) 1182.00 (±119.3%)
160
Pottawattamie, Iowa
291 (±15.0%) 6.27 (±6.2%) 92.369 (±4.9%) 389.98 (±5.1%)
156
Carter, Tennessee
292 (±15.2%) 9.52 (±4.0%) 79.628 (±4.7%) 392.06 (±4.0%)
154
Habersham, Georgia
97 (±6.0%) 11.79 (±4.2%) 53.419 (±8.1%) 182.10 (±4.3%)
153
Michigan Department of Corrections (MDOC), Michigan
603 (±234.4%) 2.61 (±2.7%) 204.627 (±68.7%) 632.47 (±123.6%)
152
Iberia, Louisiana
247 (±56.5%) 2.16 (±57.4%) 107.974 (±30.5%) 289.01 (±46.5%)
149
Columbus, North Carolina
197 (±95.4%) 10.42 (±5.2%) 119.227 (±44.3%) 336.22 (±69.4%)
148
Cherokee, South Carolina
97 (±3.1%) 8.15 (±4.1%) 55.994 (±2.5%) 259.51 (±1.2%)
147
Limestone, Alabama
120 (±7.8%) fiterr (±err) 72.090 (±3.6%) 333.24 (±2.6%)
146
Jackson, Georgia
837 (±246.4%) 3.60 (±12.5%) 135.371 (±47.1%) 584.76 (±61.8%)
145
Ross, Ohio
169 (±3.0%) 6.97 (±6.4%) 57.617 (±1.6%) 318.70 (±0.8%)
144
Lowndes, Mississippi
73 (±1.3%) 8.49 (±3.7%) 36.242 (±2.4%) 206.80 (±0.6%)
142
Orange, Texas
60 (±1.5%) fiterr (±err) 36.323 (±2.6%) 225.62 (±0.6%)
140
Bristol, Rhode Island
183762 (±884.5%) 28.85 (±4.5%) 238.902 (±55.0%) 1291.72 (±77.4%)
137
Suwannee, Florida
110 (±4.1%) fiterr (±err) 53.760 (±4.4%) 215.86 (±2.2%)
136
Putnam, Florida
834 (±401.4%) fiterr (±err) 157.252 (±78.9%) 637.64 (±112.9%)
135
Marion, Ohio
55531 (±645.2%) 4.18 (±2.9%) 256.133 (±51.5%) 1292.06 (±74.3%)
133
St. Mary, Louisiana
140 (±12.7%) 3.31 (±42.8%) 73.093 (±11.0%) 210.68 (±10.2%)
132
Monroe, Mississippi
155 (±47.3%) 6.34 (±10.7%) 97.650 (±29.7%) 252.74 (±42.4%)
130
Sarpy, Nebraska
336 (±15.3%) 4.23 (±5.6%) 88.565 (±4.2%) 419.14 (±4.0%)
129
Shenandoah, Virginia
66 (±0.7%) 15.78 (±2.4%) 38.539 (±1.5%) 171.24 (±0.5%)
128
Duplin, North Carolina
60 (±0.7%) 5.56 (±2.6%) 33.793 (±1.8%) 168.75 (±0.5%)
127
Phelps, Missouri
479 (±29.2%) 7.60 (±5.2%) 70.377 (±7.3%) 416.79 (±5.1%)
126
Bedford, Tennessee
385611 (±1986.3%) 7.40 (±9.3%) 241.691 (±110.3%) 1335.11 (±155.6%)
125
Baldwin, Georgia
371 (±245.0%) 6.18 (±8.4%) 157.923 (±75.8%) 507.17 (±124.8%)
124
Upson, Georgia
104 (±10.1%) 7.82 (±18.0%) 71.271 (±10.7%) 177.23 (±9.8%)
123
Nassau, Florida
64 (±0.9%) fiterr (±err) 33.103 (±1.7%) 244.20 (±0.3%)
121
Craven, North Carolina
164 (±28.4%) 4.26 (±9.8%) 70.241 (±13.9%) 315.71 (±10.3%)
120
Wapello, Iowa
99 (±3.4%) 10.67 (±3.2%) 57.090 (±3.6%) 219.55 (±1.9%)
119
Grady, Oklahoma
11 (±5.6%) fiterr (±err) 5.000 (±59925917153.0%) 17.00 (±1114413421354.2%)
118
Lonoke, Arkansas
190 (±4.9%) 6.01 (±5.3%) 58.139 (±2.0%) 353.08 (±1.0%)
117
Dubois, Indiana
6748158 (±556.7%) 8.40 (±12.7%) 291.573 (±22.4%) 1689.92 (±32.6%)
116
Crawford, Arkansas
150 (±8.6%) 6.89 (±4.7%) 69.397 (±3.2%) 360.48 (±2.2%)
114
Covington, Alabama
35 (±1.1%) 2.10 (±44.3%) 34.769 (±2.2%) 202.89 (±0.5%)
113
Kosciusko, Indiana
1027589 (±1294.0%) 7.42 (±4.7%) 214.473 (±66.5%) 1221.16 (±91.8%)
112
Union, Arkansas
111 (±5.1%) 9.01 (±8.1%) 66.610 (±3.1%) 285.06 (±2.1%)
111
Bulloch, Georgia
115 (±27.9%) 2.86 (±15.5%) 70.479 (±13.9%) 312.29 (±10.4%)
110
Dale, Alabama
57 (±0.8%) 5.60 (±4.5%) 28.597 (±2.3%) 219.60 (±0.3%)
109
Chilton, Alabama
58 (±3.1%) 0.84 (±69.0%) 45.808 (±3.0%) 266.67 (±0.9%)
108
El Dorado, California
97799 (±1202.8%) fiterr (±err) 181.041 (±66.4%) 1044.92 (±87.6%)
107
Pope, Arkansas
54 (±1.5%) 5.07 (±6.1%) 40.770 (±1.9%) 247.43 (±0.5%)
106
Gratiot, Michigan
895838 (±882.8%) fiterr (±err) 248.748 (±44.4%) 1399.14 (±62.9%)
105
Franklin, Louisiana
540 (±101.1%) 8.64 (±3.5%) 122.238 (±23.6%) 507.09 (±30.1%)
104
Dyer, Tennessee
149 (±6.8%) 5.53 (±6.4%) 62.256 (±3.0%) 339.48 (±1.7%)
103
Autauga, Alabama
505 (±397.7%) 6.28 (±4.2%) 162.909 (±81.6%) 642.74 (±119.5%)
101
Vernon, Louisiana
70 (±0.8%) 8.04 (±2.4%) 38.288 (±1.3%) 222.44 (±0.3%)
100
Christian, Kentucky
793 (±258.3%) 3.69 (±70.9%) 131.097 (±44.7%) 596.18 (±56.4%)
99
Monroe, Georgia
100 (±23.8%) 6.70 (±16.3%) 74.281 (±16.7%) 245.28 (±15.4%)
98
Morton, North Dakota
91 (±10.9%) 2.67 (±5.3%) 34.550 (±14.3%) 280.96 (±2.1%)
97
Hancock, West Virginia
61593 (±155.3%) 14.31 (±61.5%) 79.435 (±10.3%) 573.87 (±8.9%)
96
Crittenden, Arkansas
119 (±23.3%) fiterr (±err) 76.597 (±13.2%) 284.11 (±12.0%)
95
Lawrence, Alabama
38 (±0.9%) 6.36 (±8.2%) 25.607 (±2.2%) 258.00 (±0.2%)
94
Coles, Illinois
643 (±37.2%) 1.82 (±53.9%) 126.819 (±7.9%) 540.27 (±10.1%)
93
Wise, Virginia
357 (±47.1%) 11.91 (±4.9%) 69.485 (±11.7%) 415.18 (±8.1%)
92
Gadsden, Florida
61 (±0.6%) fiterr (±err) 33.861 (±1.1%) 221.76 (±0.2%)
91
Webster, Iowa
624295 (±302.4%) 3.63 (±9.6%) 190.077 (±16.0%) 1096.10 (±21.4%)
90
Polk, Georgia
58 (±3.7%) 2.56 (±12.9%) 55.157 (±2.7%) 280.69 (±1.3%)
89
Knox, Indiana
8629562 (±464.7%) 5.05 (±7.1%) 198.582 (±18.8%) 1198.54 (±25.6%)
88
Gibson, Indiana
871 (±42.4%) 4.50 (±19.3%) 77.294 (±7.9%) 461.41 (±6.2%)
87
Okeechobee, Florida
53 (±1.1%) 5.21 (±3.1%) 38.160 (±1.5%) 252.47 (±0.3%)
86
Crow Wing, Minnesota
134144 (±428.8%) 3.91 (±33.2%) 226.811 (±27.5%) 1223.42 (±38.4%)
85
Walton, Florida
64 (±3.6%) 1.83 (±24.4%) 68.901 (±2.4%) 267.28 (±1.8%)
84
Wayne, Georgia
55 (±3.0%) 6.04 (±4.0%) 42.591 (±4.1%) 249.11 (±0.9%)
83
Livingston, Illinois
44440457 (±500.3%) 4.04 (±11.8%) 199.787 (±16.5%) 1243.98 (±22.8%)
82
Franklin, Alabama
35 (±0.5%) 6.08 (±5.7%) 38.178 (±1.0%) 184.93 (±0.3%)
81
Macoupin, Illinois
906162 (±415.7%) 4.99 (±6.1%) 155.763 (±20.7%) 943.20 (±26.2%)
80
Meriwether, Georgia
23 (±1.3%) 9.12 (±31.1%) 46.180 (±1.5%) 235.78 (±0.5%)
79
Boone, Arkansas
75 (±3.4%) 5.83 (±6.0%) 40.752 (±3.0%) 296.72 (±0.7%)
78
La Paz, Arizona
32 (±6.1%) 12.22 (±4.6%) 58.185 (±5.2%) 242.33 (±3.0%)
77
Graham, Arizona
46 (±3.5%) 5.02 (±8.0%) 45.524 (±4.1%) 242.00 (±1.3%)
76
Pike, Alabama
209 (±80.7%) 8.92 (±7.6%) 135.441 (±17.0%) 570.35 (±22.1%)
75
Geneva, Alabama
50064 (±614.3%) 5.60 (±25.3%) 190.430 (±39.1%) 1059.69 (±52.2%)
74
Escambia, Alabama
34 (±0.7%) fiterr (±err) 39.700 (±1.1%) 206.80 (±0.3%)
73
Harrison, Iowa
117 (±11.1%) 5.09 (±27.7%) 49.099 (±5.0%) 348.41 (±1.9%)
72
Winston, Alabama
72 (±24.1%) 8.84 (±5.5%) 86.093 (±9.4%) 357.22 (±9.1%)
71
Hot Spring, Arkansas
60 (±2.7%) 4.07 (±7.2%) 47.280 (±2.8%) 259.90 (±0.9%)
70
Appling, Georgia
63 (±3.6%) 5.70 (±4.3%) 70.724 (±2.8%) 240.60 (±2.2%)
69
Jackson, Indiana
610 (±30.8%) 6.80 (±10.9%) 95.922 (±5.9%) 493.63 (±5.8%)
68
Chattooga, Georgia
46 (±11.2%) 3.22 (±18.0%) 38.005 (±13.8%) 271.98 (±2.6%)
67
Yell, Arkansas
37 (±0.9%) 5.61 (±6.4%) 34.246 (±1.8%) 213.73 (±0.4%)
66
Butler, Alabama
41 (±0.5%) 8.18 (±2.6%) 26.650 (±1.8%) 151.32 (±0.5%)
65
Tattnall, Georgia
81 (±9.5%) 7.45 (±3.9%) 63.125 (±4.2%) 341.70 (±2.5%)
64
Jefferson, Georgia
42 (±4.5%) 4.78 (±11.6%) 34.579 (±8.0%) 241.86 (±1.4%)
63
Otero, Colorado
1361173 (±912.6%) 14.07 (±67.3%) 183.259 (±40.4%) 1099.87 (±53.8%)
62
Hancock, Georgia
44 (±0.8%) 18.37 (±2.5%) 26.831 (±2.9%) 147.11 (±0.8%)
61
Marengo, Alabama
76 (±134.3%) 7.99 (±3.7%) 124.266 (±56.7%) 366.33 (±88.4%)
60
Bibb, Alabama
1103930 (±494.5%) 5.45 (±3.7%) 198.292 (±23.6%) 1158.72 (±32.0%)
59
Perry, Illinois
5328 (±273.9%) 4.76 (±59.7%) 150.540 (±28.3%) 778.98 (±35.7%)
58
West Baton Rouge, Louisiana
58 (±21.6%) fiterr (±err) 86.284 (±30.0%) 8.03 (±2905.3%)
57
Telfair, Georgia
41 (±1.8%) 9.64 (±6.3%) 49.482 (±1.7%) 256.34 (±0.7%)
56
Tehama, California
53 (±4.3%) 4.92 (±5.2%) 43.219 (±2.8%) 320.95 (±0.8%)
55
Clay, Alabama
330612 (±259.5%) 6.64 (±3.0%) 206.461 (±13.9%) 1172.64 (±19.0%)
54
Towns, Georgia
149 (±16.5%) 9.68 (±3.0%) 73.799 (±5.0%) 393.52 (±3.7%)
53
Lowndes, Alabama
29 (±0.6%) 8.19 (±2.9%) 29.805 (±1.9%) 151.84 (±0.6%)
52
Holmes, Florida
51 (±12.4%) 4.53 (±22.3%) 70.748 (±5.2%) 347.61 (±3.7%)
51
Bleckley, Georgia
36 (±1.5%) 2.60 (±50.7%) 38.345 (±2.3%) 244.35 (±0.5%)
50
Clay, Arkansas
1518 (±48.0%) 6.70 (±12.5%) 137.389 (±6.1%) 687.10 (±7.5%)
49
Franklin, Georgia
31 (±1.8%) 5.53 (±11.9%) 48.859 (±1.7%) 262.07 (±0.6%)
48
Macon, Alabama
78 (±93.2%) 7.04 (±3.1%) 112.882 (±36.6%) 371.58 (±50.5%)
47
Fulton, Arkansas
17204 (±533.5%) 6.69 (±10.9%) 140.029 (±42.2%) 793.23 (±50.8%)
46
Amador, California
17 (±1.3%) 9.15 (±5.3%) 12.478 (±9.1%) 224.61 (±0.4%)
45
Lincoln, Kentucky
21 (±0.9%) 12.92 (±6.1%) 26.913 (±2.2%) 248.71 (±0.3%)
44
Carroll, Arkansas
270 (±40.0%) 6.72 (±5.1%) 115.460 (±8.4%) 520.34 (±9.8%)
43
Lawrence, Arkansas
98131 (±1025.5%) 3.51 (±43.1%) 256.774 (±65.6%) 1366.14 (±93.8%)
42
Gulf, Florida
37 (±13.8%) 4.50 (±4.4%) 61.477 (±10.3%) 282.79 (±5.1%)
41
Izard, Arkansas
25 (±22.0%) fiterr (±err) 47.467 (±9.1%) 355.86 (±3.3%)
40
Bullock, Alabama
21 (±2.0%) 7.10 (±4.3%) 48.079 (±3.2%) 182.86 (±1.2%)
39
Franklin, Arkansas
40 (±9.6%) 7.46 (±7.8%) 32.373 (±6.3%) 338.34 (±1.0%)
38
Arkansas, Arkansas
35 (±3.1%) 6.77 (±5.1%) 42.357 (±2.8%) 293.59 (±0.7%)
37
Gem, Idaho
53952 (±716.6%) 7.82 (±7.2%) 154.508 (±44.2%) 899.48 (±55.5%)
36
Bacon, Georgia
47 (±4.4%) 6.39 (±3.1%) 70.428 (±2.3%) 302.33 (±1.8%)
35
Lee, Arkansas
21 (±1.3%) 2.95 (±12.0%) 35.194 (±2.5%) 220.69 (±0.5%)
34
Greene, Alabama
19 (±0.9%) 11.16 (±3.7%) 43.124 (±1.7%) 182.20 (±0.6%)
33
Ashley, Arkansas
26 (±5.3%) 3.62 (±19.7%) 60.018 (±3.8%) 275.33 (±2.1%)
32
Sumter, Alabama
22 (±0.6%) 7.51 (±2.1%) 33.880 (±1.5%) 159.51 (±0.5%)
31
Blackford, Indiana
395265 (±371.5%) fiterr (±err) 170.962 (±18.7%) 1014.28 (±24.3%)
30
Marion, Arkansas
155370 (±623.6%) 4.70 (±14.8%) 113.121 (±34.0%) 733.88 (±37.4%)
29
Evans, Georgia
19 (±7.2%) 4.53 (±11.8%) 51.210 (±6.1%) 279.74 (±2.2%)
28
Morgan, Georgia
11 (±4.0%) fiterr (±err) 41.437 (±4.2%) 282.28 (±0.9%)
27
Perry, Alabama
9 (±5.5%) 1.77 (±56.3%) 52.793 (±7.4%) 219.81 (±2.3%)
26
Newton, Arkansas
23 (±1.0%) 4.35 (±23.0%) 27.271 (±3.2%) 224.03 (±0.4%)
25
Glenn, California
30593 (±526.7%) 2.83 (±16.5%) 175.145 (±34.4%) 981.49 (±45.0%)
24
Choctaw, Alabama
14 (±1.6%) 7.59 (±3.3%) 16.135 (±10.0%) 143.53 (±1.4%)
23
Madison, Arkansas
51 (±29.2%) 6.60 (±4.2%) 87.985 (±8.2%) 420.38 (±7.6%)
22
Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
143625 (±520.9%) fiterr (±err) 181.959 (±28.0%) 1052.91 (±37.1%)
21
Prowers, Colorado
25 (±9.7%) 5.24 (±30.3%) 32.886 (±10.4%) 317.94 (±1.1%)
20
Routt, Colorado
7653 (±717.4%) fiterr (±err) 282.849 (±61.3%) 1388.87 (±90.1%)
19
Marion, Georgia
12 (±1.5%) 8.03 (±7.2%) 47.285 (±1.9%) 211.15 (±0.8%)
17
Tillman, Oklahoma
20161 (±295.8%) fiterr (±err) 188.394 (±19.1%) 1042.66 (±25.5%)

For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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