Labor am Elm

Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People in the US

fit with advanced Gompertz function

Jens Röder

14 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Fri Aug 14 05:54:30 UTC 2020

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_dead death rate (err) death_rate deaths_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
23602
New York, New York
22972 (±0.2%) 11.47 (±0.9%) 12.070 (±0.9%) 99.73 (±0.2%)
5112
Los Angeles, California
5360 (±1.7%) 4.24 (±4.9%) 29.651 (±1.9%) 145.36 (±0.7%)
2828
Wayne, Michigan
2745 (±0.2%) 13.07 (±1.6%) 14.320 (±0.8%) 107.30 (±0.1%)
2493
Maricopa, Arizona
66016 (±41.6%) 1.11 (±58.6%) 71.557 (±6.1%) 363.76 (±6.9%)
2113
Essex, New Jersey
2029 (±0.7%) 11.90 (±1.2%) 17.595 (±2.1%) 111.82 (±0.5%)
2046
Bergen, New Jersey
5801 (±5.9%) 11.17 (±1.2%) -47.249 (±-7.0%) 208.22 (±5.4%)
2006
Middlesex, Massachusetts
1927 (±0.4%) 8.62 (±1.0%) 16.048 (±1.1%) 119.26 (±0.2%)
1998
Suffolk, New York
1993 (±0.2%) 5.21 (±1.4%) 14.205 (±0.7%) 109.41 (±0.1%)
1709
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
1684 (±0.2%) 7.06 (±2.4%) 18.048 (±0.6%) 121.89 (±0.1%)
1505
Hudson, New Jersey
1463 (±0.7%) 8.33 (±1.5%) 17.843 (±2.0%) 113.93 (±0.4%)
1447
Westchester, New York
1421 (±0.3%) 4.80 (±3.1%) 12.836 (±1.2%) 105.43 (±0.2%)
1410
Fairfield, Connecticut
980 (±4.4%) 9.12 (±1.9%) -16.273 (±-28991094118772.5%) -503.96 (±-29401033842916.6%)
1409
Middlesex, New Jersey
1411 (±0.9%) 9.01 (±1.7%) 21.410 (±2.0%) 121.21 (±0.5%)
1247
Passaic, New Jersey
1219 (±0.8%) 8.02 (±2.1%) 18.850 (±2.0%) 119.10 (±0.4%)
1109
New Haven, Connecticut
1093 (±0.1%) 9.58 (±1.6%) 15.754 (±0.4%) 116.56 (±0.1%)
1076
Suffolk, Massachusetts
1023 (±0.4%) 5.84 (±2.1%) 15.177 (±1.3%) 116.62 (±0.2%)
1020
Ocean, New Jersey
1022 (±0.5%) 11.50 (±1.9%) 20.701 (±1.2%) 121.81 (±0.3%)
1018
Unassigned, Rhode Island
1027 (±0.2%) 58.56 (±2.1%) 19.876 (±0.5%) 128.73 (±0.1%)
1007
Worcester, Massachusetts
984 (±0.2%) 8.26 (±1.5%) 17.290 (±0.5%) 126.75 (±0.1%)
997
Norfolk, Massachusetts
877 (±70.4%) 11.03 (±1.1%) 73.827 (±74.7%) -389.81 (±-97.7%)
954
Palm Beach, Florida
1769 (±7.6%) 5.09 (±11.1%) 46.108 (±3.7%) 195.13 (±3.0%)
949
Macomb, Michigan
917 (±0.3%) 12.98 (±1.7%) 14.474 (±1.1%) 107.56 (±0.2%)
859
Broward, Florida
3273 (±40.8%) 7.11 (±6.9%) 63.988 (±11.9%) 264.52 (±13.6%)
842
Clark, Nevada
1288 (±12.4%) 6.68 (±8.3%) 45.953 (±6.7%) 183.04 (±5.6%)
830
Morris, New Jersey
710 (±140.5%) 12.89 (±1.2%) 72.329 (±141.6%) -380.74 (±-188.0%)
826
Bexar, Texas
212999 (±216.9%) fiterr (±err) 69.751 (±19.4%) 409.73 (±21.1%)
794
Dallas, Texas
2407 (±11.8%) 3.02 (±8.4%) 52.379 (±4.0%) 235.07 (±3.7%)
764
Prince George’s, Maryland
737 (±0.3%) 4.70 (±4.5%) 18.860 (±0.6%) 124.97 (±0.1%)
745
Orange, California
1916 (±3.6%) 3.11 (±9.7%) 44.737 (±1.3%) 221.14 (±1.0%)
731
Marion, Indiana
630 (±65.0%) 6.94 (±3.2%) 72.035 (±64.1%) -378.78 (±-85.6%)
723
Plymouth, Massachusetts
697 (±0.4%) 8.60 (±1.4%) 17.539 (±1.1%) 121.11 (±0.2%)
709
Hampden, Massachusetts
680 (±0.4%) 10.85 (±1.5%) 16.366 (±1.1%) 114.44 (±0.2%)
686
King, Washington
-494 (±-0.7%) 7.48 (±2.8%) -123.771 (±-1.0%) 726.69 (±1.0%)
674
Rockland, New York
582 (±54.0%) 5.33 (±1.3%) 65.132 (±58.9%) -344.57 (±-76.3%)
672
St. Louis, Missouri
623 (±0.7%) 10.16 (±3.7%) 19.006 (±1.7%) 119.61 (±0.4%)
671
Erie, New York
666 (±0.2%) 9.19 (±2.9%) 18.339 (±0.6%) 121.31 (±0.1%)
621
Mercer, New Jersey
1724 (±6.3%) 8.58 (±1.8%) -43.843 (±-7.6%) 205.02 (±5.2%)
593
District of Columbia, District of Columbia
579 (±0.2%) 6.35 (±3.2%) 17.621 (±0.7%) 121.27 (±0.1%)
582
Bucks, Pennsylvania
574 (±0.2%) 10.17 (±1.7%) 15.060 (±0.6%) 121.01 (±0.1%)
580
Camden, New Jersey
606 (±0.8%) 8.19 (±1.8%) 24.105 (±1.4%) 134.60 (±0.4%)
567
Baltimore, Maryland
2129 (±5.6%) 6.98 (±4.2%) -69.464 (±-5.6%) 293.97 (±4.6%)
564
Orleans, Louisiana
456 (±27.0%) 7.31 (±1.8%) 62.434 (±30.2%) -331.25 (±-38.7%)
555
San Bernardino, California
1234 (±19.8%) 4.07 (±9.9%) 51.976 (±7.8%) 218.03 (±7.3%)
531
Franklin, Ohio
1014 (±7.4%) 4.92 (±3.6%) 95.667 (±3.7%) -414.99 (±-2.6%)
522
Pinellas, Florida
11482 (±41.3%) fiterr (±err) 68.820 (±6.4%) 350.24 (±7.0%)
512
Cuyahoga, Ohio
534 (±1.2%) 6.70 (±5.7%) 28.209 (±1.5%) 143.79 (±0.5%)
505
Pima, Arizona
833 (±7.2%) 3.36 (±27.1%) 42.270 (±4.0%) 184.74 (±2.8%)
474
Burlington, New Jersey
484 (±0.6%) 9.22 (±1.5%) 22.212 (±1.2%) 130.99 (±0.3%)
469
Tarrant, Texas
838 (±10.1%) 4.02 (±7.1%) 45.342 (±4.8%) 198.24 (±3.8%)
462
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
440 (±0.8%) 4.39 (±7.0%) 22.862 (±1.5%) 120.59 (±0.4%)
455
Fulton, Georgia
423 (±1.5%) 7.42 (±5.4%) 27.230 (±2.0%) 134.37 (±0.7%)
449
Lake, Illinois
458 (±0.5%) 4.94 (±3.2%) 21.181 (±1.0%) 128.61 (±0.2%)
434
Baltimore City, Maryland
1322 (±2.6%) 5.78 (±4.6%) -56.549 (±-2.9%) 249.98 (±2.2%)
426
Hillsborough, Florida
22025 (±56.3%) fiterr (±err) 80.857 (±7.0%) 412.86 (±8.4%)
417
Denver, Colorado
404 (±0.3%) 5.96 (±3.0%) 18.133 (±0.8%) 120.76 (±0.2%)
372
Berks, Pennsylvania
365 (±0.4%) 9.12 (±2.5%) 15.989 (±1.3%) 123.69 (±0.2%)
362
Lee, Florida
1152 (±15.2%) 3.82 (±25.2%) 54.207 (±4.8%) 242.14 (±4.7%)
360
East Baton Rouge, Louisiana
305 (±1.0%) 8.08 (±6.6%) 19.540 (±2.4%) 117.41 (±0.6%)
346
Will, Illinois
334 (±0.3%) 5.72 (±4.6%) 18.073 (±0.9%) 116.04 (±0.2%)
338
Lehigh, Pennsylvania
340 (±0.4%) 9.01 (±2.3%) 20.154 (±0.9%) 131.59 (±0.2%)
334
Polk, Florida
90630 (±107.3%) fiterr (±err) 93.781 (±9.6%) 501.88 (±12.1%)
326
Cobb, Georgia
318 (±1.1%) 6.45 (±5.4%) 26.543 (±1.5%) 133.62 (±0.5%)
315
Shelby, Tennessee
450 (±2.2%) 4.03 (±6.7%) 37.773 (±1.5%) 172.67 (±0.9%)
313
Travis, Texas
3814 (±65.4%) 4.12 (±9.0%) 75.659 (±12.0%) 347.67 (±14.5%)
305
Kane, Illinois
310 (±0.4%) 3.30 (±4.5%) 21.355 (±0.7%) 136.48 (±0.2%)
297
Genesee, Michigan
288 (±0.2%) 11.12 (±1.9%) 12.878 (±0.9%) 107.28 (±0.1%)
296
Caddo, Louisiana
198 (±1.8%) 10.05 (±4.8%) -27.646 (±-3.8%) 78.99 (±9.3%)
295
Unassigned, Puerto Rico
280 (±7.1%) 75.65 (±3.5%) 36.024 (±6.9%) 140.27 (±3.8%)
293
Northampton, Pennsylvania
286 (±0.6%) 9.46 (±2.6%) 18.202 (±1.6%) 124.54 (±0.3%)
291
New Castle, Delaware
297 (±1.1%) 5.90 (±3.9%) 24.592 (±1.7%) 136.12 (±0.4%)
290
Yuma, Arizona
536 (±3.1%) 2.64 (±7.7%) 31.221 (±1.6%) 203.92 (±0.6%)
285
Monroe, New York
284 (±0.4%) 7.24 (±3.3%) 20.232 (±0.8%) 120.23 (±0.2%)
281
Lake, Indiana
269 (±0.4%) 6.22 (±3.4%) 20.465 (±1.0%) 125.51 (±0.2%)
280
Hillsborough, New Hampshire
282 (±0.7%) 7.95 (±1.0%) 18.230 (±1.5%) 146.52 (±0.2%)
275
Gwinnett, Georgia
262 (±2.6%) 4.62 (±7.0%) 29.490 (±3.1%) 140.19 (±1.2%)
269
Ramsey, Minnesota
270 (±0.5%) 4.98 (±2.4%) 20.749 (±0.9%) 144.87 (±0.2%)
261
Jefferson, Alabama
376 (±5.6%) 5.14 (±13.2%) 40.799 (±3.4%) 176.97 (±2.3%)
259
Hamilton, Ohio
246 (±1.1%) 4.61 (±6.4%) 24.167 (±2.0%) 131.15 (±0.5%)
256
Mahoning, Ohio
252 (±0.4%) 13.66 (±1.9%) 20.388 (±0.8%) 123.88 (±0.2%)
252
Imperial, California
610 (±5.4%) 1.98 (±11.7%) 38.620 (±2.2%) 217.13 (±1.3%)
247
DeKalb, Georgia
244 (±1.5%) 4.94 (±4.8%) 27.530 (±1.9%) 142.07 (±0.6%)
244
Jefferson, Kentucky
231 (±1.0%) 6.17 (±4.9%) 23.575 (±1.8%) 123.09 (±0.5%)
243
Mecklenburg, North Carolina
283 (±3.3%) 3.50 (±11.3%) 34.607 (±2.7%) 159.36 (±1.3%)
242
Manatee, Florida
206 (±3.8%) 6.58 (±15.3%) 30.774 (±4.2%) 141.81 (±1.7%)
233
Jefferson, Colorado
229 (±0.3%) 8.74 (±3.3%) 20.155 (±0.8%) 124.98 (±0.2%)
229
McKinley, New Mexico
227 (±0.9%) 7.36 (±2.9%) 22.519 (±1.5%) 144.56 (±0.3%)
224
Summit, Ohio
216 (±0.5%) 9.13 (±2.6%) 16.854 (±1.3%) 128.44 (±0.2%)
221
Davidson, Tennessee
461 (±3.9%) 3.25 (±7.6%) 43.690 (±1.8%) 203.34 (±1.3%)
218
Greenville, South Carolina
7121 (±95.1%) 2.47 (±20.9%) 84.584 (±13.2%) 409.90 (±16.5%)
216
Mobile, Alabama
189 (±2.6%) 6.28 (±6.9%) 25.902 (±4.1%) 130.24 (±1.2%)
215
Yakima, Washington
259 (±1.7%) 3.46 (±8.2%) 31.914 (±1.7%) 151.19 (±0.7%)
214
Gloucester, New Jersey
204 (±0.6%) 8.62 (±2.5%) 19.325 (±1.5%) 129.26 (±0.3%)
212
Lackawanna, Pennsylvania
213 (±0.3%) 12.75 (±1.8%) 17.684 (±0.9%) 121.14 (±0.2%)
210
Duval, Florida
111237 (±234.7%) 5.88 (±12.4%) 111.851 (±18.5%) 594.03 (±24.7%)
209
Alameda, California
252 (±4.0%) 4.53 (±6.2%) 36.434 (±3.4%) 152.05 (±1.9%)
208
Polk, Iowa
201 (±0.4%) 3.19 (±3.8%) 19.729 (±0.9%) 135.50 (±0.2%)
206
Charleston, South Carolina
768 (±20.0%) fiterr (±err) 35.142 (±6.2%) 234.54 (±3.2%)
205
Tulare, California
242 (±2.4%) 4.17 (±9.5%) 33.255 (±2.1%) 157.37 (±1.0%)
204
Navajo, Arizona
295 (±2.8%) 5.04 (±5.8%) 35.683 (±1.9%) 176.34 (±1.0%)
202
Salt Lake, Utah
281 (±5.5%) 2.99 (±7.6%) 38.746 (±3.6%) 174.99 (±2.2%)
198
Sussex, New Jersey
194 (±0.8%) 16.73 (±0.8%) 18.539 (±2.3%) 114.52 (±0.5%)
192
Middlesex, Connecticut
145 (±2.0%) 15.14 (±1.8%) -24.914 (±-3.9%) 83.95 (±8.0%)
191
Fresno, California
604 (±19.9%) 3.05 (±9.7%) 50.089 (±6.1%) 244.06 (±5.2%)
186
Henrico, Virginia
171 (±1.5%) 7.91 (±4.5%) 20.244 (±3.8%) 114.34 (±0.9%)
185
San Juan, New Mexico
182 (±0.4%) 7.43 (±2.1%) 20.052 (±0.9%) 130.69 (±0.2%)
184
Luzerne, Pennsylvania
181 (±0.4%) 7.02 (±1.9%) 17.085 (±1.3%) 117.65 (±0.3%)
183
Kern, California
569 (±11.4%) 4.13 (±8.9%) 48.777 (±3.7%) 237.88 (±3.1%)
179
Sacramento, California
5854 (±179.8%) 8.25 (±6.2%) 100.335 (±24.5%) 464.32 (±33.3%)
178
Mohave, Arizona
352 (±9.0%) 4.78 (±14.9%) 42.586 (±4.1%) 205.10 (±2.8%)
177
Adams, Colorado
171 (±0.5%) 4.63 (±4.3%) 20.772 (±1.1%) 122.00 (±0.2%)
173
Fort Bend, Texas
81042 (±430.7%) 6.25 (±6.1%) 114.288 (±34.7%) 601.45 (±46.6%)
172
Dougherty, Georgia
157 (±0.5%) 9.18 (±2.1%) 14.465 (±1.9%) 100.86 (±0.4%)
166
Sarasota, Florida
127 (±2.2%) 5.75 (±30.0%) 25.872 (±3.5%) 129.19 (±1.0%)
164
Pinal, Arizona
1896 (±37.4%) 3.12 (±20.1%) 68.575 (±7.1%) 326.93 (±8.0%)
163
Allen, Indiana
210 (±4.2%) 6.16 (±5.5%) 34.599 (±3.6%) 156.05 (±1.8%)
160
Brevard, Florida
52112 (±234.9%) fiterr (±err) 67.940 (±20.2%) 406.60 (±21.6%)
158
Barnstable, Massachusetts
157 (±0.4%) 10.54 (±2.5%) 18.929 (±0.9%) 126.38 (±0.2%)
156
Guilford, North Carolina
171 (±1.0%) 4.44 (±6.5%) 28.320 (±1.2%) 149.31 (±0.4%)
153
Montgomery, Alabama
178 (±0.9%) 2.15 (±11.2%) 27.396 (±0.9%) 165.92 (±0.3%)
149
Contra Costa, California
562 (±19.0%) 6.48 (±6.7%) 58.080 (±5.6%) 254.97 (±5.8%)
147
Calcasieu, Louisiana
32619 (±301.6%) fiterr (±err) 115.637 (±28.1%) 584.05 (±38.3%)
146
Collier, Florida
223 (±5.4%) 3.25 (±16.2%) 39.969 (±3.1%) 183.18 (±2.0%)
145
Weld, Colorado
139 (±0.2%) 5.57 (±2.8%) 14.488 (±0.7%) 105.61 (±0.1%)
143
Pierce, Washington
136 (±1.8%) 6.61 (±3.8%) 27.878 (±2.5%) 129.17 (±0.9%)
142
Stark, Ohio
126 (±0.8%) 11.72 (±3.4%) 20.234 (±1.9%) 122.90 (±0.4%)
140
El Paso, Colorado
128 (±1.1%) 7.01 (±5.2%) 22.098 (±2.5%) 111.43 (±0.7%)
139
Litchfield, Connecticut
137 (±0.2%) 9.70 (±1.2%) 13.673 (±0.8%) 110.96 (±0.1%)
137
Seminole, Florida
430999 (±392.4%) fiterr (±err) 86.445 (±23.7%) 516.49 (±28.7%)
136
Pasco, Florida
45230 (±201.9%) fiterr (±err) 75.304 (±17.2%) 435.31 (±19.5%)
134
Bernalillo, New Mexico
135 (±3.0%) 6.87 (±5.8%) 30.831 (±3.6%) 137.36 (±1.4%)
131
Winnebago, Illinois
135 (±1.1%) 4.03 (±2.0%) 25.122 (±1.5%) 148.57 (±0.4%)
130
Hampshire, Massachusetts
124 (±0.6%) 12.88 (±1.0%) 18.612 (±1.4%) 128.81 (±0.3%)
128
Albany, New York
128 (±0.8%) 5.68 (±1.4%) 19.218 (±2.0%) 125.29 (±0.4%)
126
Hunterdon, New Jersey
153 (±4.3%) 11.91 (±1.7%) 28.997 (±5.0%) 146.34 (±1.7%)
124
Monroe, Pennsylvania
119 (±0.7%) 9.46 (±1.5%) 19.114 (±1.8%) 116.08 (±0.4%)
122
San Mateo, California
120 (±0.5%) 4.94 (±5.4%) 22.558 (±1.0%) 120.95 (±0.3%)
121
Hinds, Mississippi
37619 (±169.8%) 4.92 (±7.9%) 97.391 (±14.9%) 518.48 (±19.1%)
119
Coconino, Arizona
113 (±0.9%) 5.86 (±5.3%) 23.215 (±1.8%) 122.46 (±0.5%)
118
Carroll, Maryland
120 (±0.5%) 10.00 (±2.6%) 20.642 (±1.2%) 121.08 (±0.3%)
116
Galveston, Texas
9320 (±258.8%) 5.76 (±13.3%) 105.002 (±29.4%) 511.83 (±39.4%)
115
Anoka, Minnesota
115 (±0.3%) 4.63 (±3.4%) 17.807 (±0.8%) 138.55 (±0.1%)
114
Clayton, Georgia
119 (±2.3%) 6.84 (±6.1%) 31.077 (±2.5%) 144.03 (±1.0%)
113
Washtenaw, Michigan
108 (±0.3%) 7.16 (±2.5%) 14.794 (±1.2%) 112.21 (±0.2%)
112
Howard, Maryland
111 (±0.6%) 4.76 (±4.0%) 24.069 (±1.0%) 138.31 (±0.2%)
110
Trumbull, Ohio
178 (±8.6%) 10.88 (±5.0%) 44.222 (±5.0%) 178.48 (±3.9%)
109
Kent, Delaware
99 (±1.0%) 6.61 (±3.3%) 20.727 (±2.2%) 129.75 (±0.5%)
108
Hendricks, Indiana
107 (±0.6%) 8.13 (±2.5%) 20.539 (±1.4%) 124.57 (±0.3%)
107
Osceola, Florida
44634 (±333.7%) 5.32 (±19.2%) 95.298 (±27.1%) 519.88 (±34.3%)
106
Johnson, Kansas
101 (±1.2%) 5.93 (±9.4%) 24.271 (±2.1%) 123.07 (±0.6%)
105
Hamilton, Indiana
100 (±0.3%) 8.21 (±4.1%) 13.730 (±1.3%) 110.26 (±0.2%)
104
New London, Connecticut
104 (±0.3%) 8.41 (±1.6%) 16.106 (±1.0%) 122.88 (±0.2%)
102
Wyandotte, Kansas
87 (±0.9%) 5.39 (±6.4%) 16.822 (±2.7%) 108.74 (±0.6%)
100
Lafayette, Louisiana
6572 (±116.7%) fiterr (±err) 99.486 (±13.9%) 483.44 (±18.4%)
98
Niagara, New York
99 (±0.5%) 7.36 (±2.5%) 20.638 (±1.1%) 130.46 (±0.2%)
97
York, Pennsylvania
228 (±6.8%) 7.63 (±4.0%) 44.874 (±2.8%) 212.53 (±2.1%)
96
Charlotte, Florida
85 (±0.7%) 8.38 (±8.6%) 18.372 (±1.6%) 128.95 (±0.3%)
95
Richmond, Georgia
199 (±7.3%) 8.70 (±7.7%) 45.413 (±3.2%) 206.41 (±2.5%)
94
Neshoba, Mississippi
95 (±0.9%) 9.15 (±3.1%) 23.626 (±1.4%) 150.81 (±0.3%)
93
Ventura, California
254 (±17.5%) 4.26 (±10.1%) 56.554 (±6.2%) 232.98 (±6.4%)
92
St. John the Baptist, Louisiana
86 (±0.4%) 10.24 (±2.7%) 13.232 (±1.8%) 100.08 (±0.3%)
91
Charles, Maryland
89 (±0.4%) 7.32 (±3.5%) 16.771 (±1.3%) 117.83 (±0.3%)
88
Linn, Iowa
85 (±0.3%) 7.19 (±3.3%) 15.270 (±1.1%) 114.02 (±0.2%)
87
Pulaski, Arkansas
109 (±2.2%) 5.07 (±7.0%) 34.978 (±1.8%) 160.05 (±0.9%)
86
Elkhart, Indiana
158 (±8.3%) 2.55 (±8.9%) 42.381 (±4.2%) 194.66 (±2.9%)
83
St. Joseph, Indiana
91 (±1.6%) 4.95 (±4.1%) 28.129 (±2.0%) 145.66 (±0.6%)
80
Durham, North Carolina
78 (±1.2%) 2.68 (±7.6%) 22.436 (±2.3%) 132.04 (±0.5%)
79
Tallapoosa, Alabama
73 (±0.8%) 13.87 (±3.2%) 14.442 (±2.7%) 122.81 (±0.4%)
78
Madison, Illinois
72 (±0.4%) 7.61 (±4.7%) 16.437 (±1.2%) 126.11 (±0.2%)
76
Boulder, Colorado
73 (±0.3%) 6.06 (±3.0%) 14.774 (±1.1%) 114.83 (±0.2%)
74
Merced, California
564672 (±534.9%) 1.00 (±70.1%) 88.126 (±28.9%) 535.70 (±35.3%)
73
Santa Barbara, California
4610 (±224.4%) 3.37 (±10.7%) 88.902 (±26.1%) 448.77 (±32.8%)
72
Troup, Georgia
199 (±11.7%) 1.89 (±60.5%) 44.810 (±4.2%) 226.32 (±3.1%)
71
Yavapai, Arizona
82 (±5.9%) 5.79 (±20.0%) 16.336 (±6.7%) 198.07 (±0.6%)
70
Michigan Department of Corrections (MDOC), Michigan
68 (±0.3%) 1.63 (±2.5%) 12.776 (±1.2%) 113.72 (±0.2%)
69
Kankakee, Illinois
70 (±0.7%) 6.02 (±7.2%) 21.446 (±1.4%) 125.67 (±0.3%)
68
Leflore, Mississippi
66 (±1.2%) 11.02 (±10.2%) 25.856 (±1.8%) 138.18 (±0.5%)
67
San Francisco, California
59 (±1.4%) 2.68 (±6.0%) 24.536 (±2.8%) 116.55 (±0.8%)
66
Tolland, Connecticut
65 (±0.2%) 7.57 (±2.1%) 16.815 (±0.7%) 108.85 (±0.1%)
65
Walker, Alabama
81 (±3.3%) fiterr (±err) 20.417 (±3.3%) 189.89 (±0.5%)
64
Butler, Ohio
66 (±1.8%) 3.51 (±7.0%) 26.985 (±2.3%) 149.80 (±0.7%)
62
Kings, California
64 (±2.4%) 3.03 (±10.8%) 20.929 (±2.8%) 179.85 (±0.4%)
61
Franklin, Massachusetts
57 (±0.8%) 16.71 (±1.1%) 19.282 (±2.3%) 105.39 (±0.6%)
60
Alexandria, Virginia
58 (±0.8%) 3.11 (±5.9%) 19.108 (±2.0%) 123.84 (±0.4%)
59
Douglas, Colorado
56 (±0.7%) 7.27 (±3.9%) 19.625 (±1.8%) 118.57 (±0.4%)
58
Washington, Louisiana
56 (±1.0%) 8.90 (±5.0%) 22.444 (±1.9%) 124.40 (±0.5%)
57
Ottawa, Michigan
55 (±0.6%) 4.53 (±4.0%) 18.728 (±1.6%) 126.57 (±0.3%)
56
Cochise, Arizona
93 (±8.0%) 2.08 (±39.1%) 26.027 (±4.7%) 204.22 (±1.3%)
55
Monroe, Mississippi
93 (±15.9%) 14.25 (±4.0%) 45.887 (±8.9%) 183.17 (±7.1%)
54
Santa Cruz, Arizona
72 (±5.2%) 2.05 (±9.1%) 24.619 (±4.4%) 188.69 (±0.9%)
53
Washington, Arkansas
64 (±4.1%) fiterr (±err) 26.991 (±3.6%) 178.64 (±1.0%)
52
Bay, Florida
15897 (±345.4%) fiterr (±err) 54.248 (±30.1%) 356.42 (±27.6%)
51
Sonoma, California
19215 (±174.8%) 3.71 (±13.6%) 76.382 (±14.6%) 441.37 (±16.7%)
50
Habersham, Georgia
53 (±1.8%) 7.46 (±2.9%) 27.023 (±2.3%) 147.24 (±0.6%)
49
Okaloosa, Florida
137656 (±535.8%) 3.52 (±58.7%) 93.820 (±32.5%) 549.23 (±40.6%)
48
Muscatine, Iowa
46 (±0.4%) 7.73 (±1.8%) 13.877 (±1.6%) 125.19 (±0.2%)
47
Lee, Alabama
38 (±0.9%) 5.76 (±5.3%) 14.782 (±3.2%) 108.41 (±0.6%)
46
Morgan, Colorado
47 (±0.6%) 7.28 (±1.6%) 13.803 (±2.0%) 123.40 (±0.3%)
45
Yolo, California
42 (±5.6%) 4.96 (±52.3%) 30.861 (±7.0%) 132.07 (±2.8%)
44
Sumter, Florida
1697 (±494.9%) 10.56 (±5.2%) 122.836 (±66.1%) 551.62 (±94.7%)
43
Benton, Arkansas
67 (±7.5%) fiterr (±err) 29.722 (±4.8%) 195.60 (±1.6%)
42
Baldwin, Georgia
38 (±0.8%) 8.79 (±4.2%) 19.268 (±1.9%) 133.62 (±0.3%)
41
Solano, California
41 (±3.7%) 4.01 (±8.9%) 28.423 (±4.5%) 145.71 (±1.5%)
40
Jefferson, Arkansas
36 (±2.2%) 4.55 (±7.3%) 23.606 (±4.6%) 123.19 (±1.1%)
39
St. Johns, Florida
17050 (±294.1%) 9.75 (±6.7%) 92.824 (±23.6%) 511.24 (±29.5%)
38
Chambers, Alabama
37 (±3.0%) 8.60 (±3.9%) 28.937 (±5.3%) 114.04 (±1.7%)
37
Shelby, Alabama
35 (±4.3%) 4.92 (±6.7%) 32.592 (±5.4%) 129.96 (±2.2%)
36
Butler, Alabama
35 (±1.1%) 6.54 (±3.6%) 19.733 (±2.4%) 145.66 (±0.4%)
35
Dallas, Iowa
34 (±0.9%) fiterr (±err) 16.815 (±2.4%) 140.85 (±0.3%)
34
Pueblo, Colorado
40 (±1.7%) 7.80 (±2.9%) 29.670 (±2.0%) 142.83 (±0.7%)
33
Broomfield, Colorado
31 (±0.5%) 10.68 (±2.6%) 14.435 (±1.9%) 123.01 (±0.3%)
32
Twin Falls, Idaho
29 (±1.7%) 5.41 (±5.7%) 21.755 (±3.7%) 122.66 (±0.9%)
31
Fayette, Georgia
38 (±7.8%) 9.71 (±5.1%) 42.818 (±5.5%) 159.49 (±4.2%)
30
Grant, Indiana
28 (±0.7%) 10.24 (±4.1%) 17.628 (±2.0%) 122.75 (±0.4%)
29
Dale, Alabama
29 (±6.1%) 5.25 (±9.0%) 12.125 (±8.1%) 205.54 (±0.4%)
28
Putnam, Florida
106770 (±675.8%) 7.49 (±10.2%) 111.538 (±39.6%) 634.93 (±52.3%)
27
Columbia, Georgia
6116 (±284.4%) 6.43 (±6.2%) 111.784 (±26.1%) 571.63 (±35.1%)
26
Hale, Alabama
26 (±1.2%) 5.91 (±6.6%) 19.220 (±2.3%) 155.90 (±0.3%)
25
LaSalle, Illinois
19 (±1.3%) 8.80 (±4.4%) 15.740 (±3.9%) 136.94 (±0.5%)
24
Lowndes, Alabama
27 (±2.4%) 4.64 (±5.7%) 25.466 (±3.3%) 148.81 (±0.8%)
23
Gordon, Georgia
20 (±1.3%) 6.23 (±7.9%) 18.128 (±3.8%) 112.10 (±0.9%)
22
Autauga, Alabama
49 (±14.8%) 1.69 (±20.3%) 41.139 (±6.7%) 205.66 (±4.4%)
21
Sebastian, Arkansas
87 (±26.7%) 2.10 (±13.7%) 39.759 (±7.6%) 243.78 (±4.7%)
20
Morgan, Alabama
93 (±28.4%) fiterr (±err) 40.327 (±7.6%) 248.06 (±4.8%)
19
Union, Arkansas
16 (±1.6%) 5.47 (±7.8%) 19.261 (±3.7%) 144.60 (±0.5%)
18
West Feliciana, Louisiana
15 (±0.9%) 7.43 (±3.9%) 15.668 (±2.7%) 129.70 (±0.4%)
17
Yell, Arkansas
23 (±12.1%) 3.18 (±10.1%) 23.747 (±8.9%) 196.87 (±1.9%)

For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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