Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People in the US
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.
Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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Actualisation date: Thu Apr 15 06:29:46 UTC 2021
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| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_dead | death rate (err) | death_rate | deaths_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 9511 Queens, New York | 7407 (±2.6%) |  | 13.34 (±4.7%) |  |  | 32.882 (±16.3%) | 2.20 (±7228.1%) |
| 3689 Middlesex, Massachusetts | 3908 (±65.2%) |  | 12.11 (±7.7%) |  |  | 113.937 (±60.5%) | 98.49 (±311.3%) |
| 2825 Essex, New Jersey | 2285 (±3.8%) |  | 11.42 (±6.7%) |  |  | 43.640 (±15.3%) | 1.07 (±25087.9%) |
| 2323 Essex, Massachusetts | 2466 (±69.6%) |  | 10.57 (±9.4%) |  |  | 115.704 (±60.1%) | 131.64 (±219.8%) |
| 2248 Middlesex, New Jersey | 1599 (±5.8%) |  | 10.66 (±7.0%) |  |  | 51.591 (±18.2%) | 4.39 (±3176.3%) |
| 2174 Worcester, Massachusetts | 4724 (±307.5%) |  | 12.90 (±7.9%) |  |  | 177.467 (±124.9%) | 443.61 (±258.4%) |
| 1826 Passaic, New Jersey | 1367 (±4.1%) |  | 9.42 (±6.6%) |  |  | 44.999 (±15.0%) | 37.73 (±75.5%) |
| 1709 Marion, Indiana | 8695 (±1376.2%) |  | 6.12 (±25.0%) |  |  | 279.158 (±353.8%) | 876.12 (±666.9%) |
| 1633 Fresno, California | 10777 (±755.1%) |  | 4.09 (±8.0%) |  |  | 177.451 (±131.3%) | 733.50 (±192.5%) |
| 1493 Montgomery, Maryland | 1682 (±78.3%) |  | 5.88 (±15.2%) |  |  | 118.729 (±64.1%) | 146.54 (±219.9%) |
| 1392 Plymouth, Massachusetts | 1246 (±30.3%) |  | 12.91 (±7.2%) |  |  | 91.037 (±35.2%) | 86.36 (±113.2%) |
| 1239 Camden, New Jersey | 2548 (±358.7%) |  | 10.37 (±9.5%) |  |  | 181.998 (±146.4%) | 447.75 (±309.6%) |
| 1191 Morris, New Jersey | 906 (±4.4%) |  | 11.15 (±13.5%) |  |  | 46.135 (±16.5%) | 1.00 (±30821.0%) |
| 1055 Fairfax, Virginia | 939 (±56.4%) |  | 4.75 (±17.9%) |  |  | 103.988 (±59.7%) | 64.48 (±433.6%) |
| 1010 Cobb, Georgia | 6519 (±1726.1%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 276.066 (±373.7%) | 955.14 (±657.3%) |
| 977 Baltimore City, Maryland | 3056 (±295.7%) |  | 5.46 (±16.1%) |  |  | 175.101 (±94.2%) | 531.75 (±166.5%) |
| 938 Marion, Florida | 431 (±9.0%) |  | 8.07 (±2.0%) |  |  | 34.073 (±16.4%) | 239.42 (±2.9%) |
| 865 Pinal, Arizona | 332 (±2.2%) |  | 4.36 (±13.0%) |  |  | 49.991 (±2.7%) | 215.35 (±1.2%) |
| 836 Brevard, Florida | 557 (±10.0%) |  | 7.88 (±3.7%) |  |  | 45.329 (±11.4%) | 246.01 (±3.6%) |
| 812 Somerset, New Jersey | 653 (±5.8%) |  | 11.85 (±7.7%) |  |  | 52.781 (±17.1%) | -0.13 (±-2236970.7%) |
| 811 Burlington, New Jersey | 621 (±9.5%) |  | 9.07 (±11.4%) |  |  | 61.159 (±18.7%) | 71.84 (±28.1%) |
| 761 Nueces, Texas | 486 (±0.5%) |  | 3.90 (±4.0%) |  |  | 26.899 (±1.5%) | 214.57 (±0.2%) |
| 717 Imperial, California | 685 (±44.7%) |  | 5.58 (±2.2%) |  |  | 85.601 (±28.7%) | 252.40 (±33.4%) |
| 715 Westmoreland, Pennsylvania | 12142446 (±1909.9%) |  | 9.31 (±40.0%) |  |  | 202.317 (±87.9%) | 1187.02 (±119.9%) |
| 692 Mohave, Arizona | 285 (±1.0%) |  | 12.18 (±3.2%) |  |  | 40.103 (±1.9%) | 191.89 (±0.6%) |
| 685 Northampton, Pennsylvania | 1639 (±1115.3%) |  | 11.71 (±14.1%) |  |  | 253.101 (±398.9%) | 633.94 (±892.4%) |
| 634 Atlantic, New Jersey | 669 (±137.2%) |  | 14.32 (±2.8%) |  |  | 132.350 (±83.3%) | 257.34 (±188.5%) |
| 620 Lake, Florida | 4351 (±464.7%) |  | 6.76 (±4.7%) |  |  | 158.527 (±85.4%) | 659.28 (±121.0%) |
| 607 St. Lucie, Florida | 3611 (±291.7%) |  | 6.25 (±1.9%) |  |  | 153.869 (±65.3%) | 591.01 (±95.9%) |
| 604 Out of GA, Georgia | 755 (±5.7%) |  | 2.19 (±12.3%) |  |  | 81.673 (±2.4%) | 339.26 (±2.2%) |
| 506 Collier, Florida | 3684 (±378.1%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 171.044 (±77.9%) | 662.70 (±117.3%) |
| 492 Yavapai, Arizona | 1053 (±155.1%) |  | 8.76 (±14.1%) |  |  | 116.650 (±37.6%) | 487.17 (±46.6%) |
| 489 Osceola, Florida | 6272 (±532.8%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 174.097 (±86.3%) | 742.33 (±124.2%) |
| 473 Seminole, Florida | 293 (±6.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 34.895 (±11.8%) | 222.64 (±2.5%) |
| 468 Sussex, Delaware | 910 (±131.9%) |  | 6.75 (±9.8%) |  |  | 152.935 (±56.0%) | 399.21 (±105.0%) |
| 449 Merced, California | 222 (±10.9%) |  | 1.12 (±61.8%) |  |  | 41.055 (±15.3%) | 234.23 (±4.0%) |
| 446 Hall, Georgia | 10383805 (±1007.9%) |  | 6.48 (±13.2%) |  |  | 340.452 (±46.9%) | 1901.25 (±68.9%) |
| 427 Dona Ana, New Mexico | 93946 (±416.8%) |  | 5.45 (±6.4%) |  |  | 148.473 (±35.9%) | 806.22 (±44.8%) |
| 425 Chatham, Georgia | 2995 (±412.8%) |  | 1.49 (±36.3%) |  |  | 164.735 (±81.3%) | 657.83 (±119.1%) |
| 423 Apache, Arizona | 260 (±14.6%) |  | 11.88 (±2.2%) |  |  | 63.078 (±15.7%) | 191.13 (±11.3%) |
| 406 Chesterfield, Virginia | 247 (±5.5%) |  | 5.18 (±33.4%) |  |  | 79.232 (±3.5%) | 262.80 (±3.4%) |
| 399 Erie, Pennsylvania | 3936187 (±663.1%) |  | 14.87 (±5.8%) |  |  | 182.650 (±31.8%) | 1080.59 (±42.2%) |
| 393 Vanderburgh, Indiana | 97541757 (±2477.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 223.853 (±88.8%) | 1355.66 (±124.9%) |
| 377 Bay, Florida | 2325 (±303.1%) |  | 5.57 (±3.4%) |  |  | 137.026 (±58.7%) | 585.23 (±77.9%) |
| 373 Wichita, Texas | 2186 (±28.0%) |  | 10.13 (±7.9%) |  |  | 79.398 (±5.5%) | 458.77 (±4.5%) |
| 362 Beaver, Pennsylvania | 173452 (±4890.0%) |  | 7.99 (±20.0%) |  |  | 394.444 (±386.3%) | 1937.58 (±583.1%) |
| 352 Gregg, Texas | 260 (±5.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 67.712 (±2.9%) | 311.13 (±2.0%) |
| 347 Kent, Rhode Island | 215 (±12.0%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 84.429 (±11.7%) | 174.29 (±14.7%) |
| 346 Franklin, Pennsylvania | 10780978 (±1002.8%) |  | 16.14 (±4.7%) |  |  | 266.785 (±43.7%) | 1533.76 (±62.6%) |
| 338 Northumberland, Pennsylvania | 4945663 (±439.1%) |  | 10.25 (±16.5%) |  |  | 222.885 (±21.2%) | 1279.61 (±29.5%) |
| 325 Kent, Delaware | 147 (±2.2%) |  | 9.68 (±14.8%) |  |  | 45.898 (±5.3%) | 128.01 (±2.8%) |
| 317 Blair, Pennsylvania | 2031902 (±216.6%) |  | 6.46 (±29.8%) |  |  | 147.580 (±11.2%) | 898.24 (±13.9%) |
| 312 Bay, Michigan | 1921050 (±1296.4%) |  | 9.64 (±32.6%) |  |  | 245.421 (±67.8%) | 1370.86 (±95.9%) |
| 306 Black Hawk, Iowa | 15282656 (±806.1%) |  | 8.86 (±3.9%) |  |  | 327.432 (±34.7%) | 1860.02 (±50.9%) |
| 305 Frederick, Maryland | 668 (±579.2%) |  | 6.71 (±14.1%) |  |  | 217.596 (±215.7%) | 549.72 (±463.9%) |
| 299 Rowan, North Carolina | 4166 (±1194.6%) |  | 5.75 (±16.0%) |  |  | 230.020 (±188.3%) | 942.30 (±291.9%) |
| 297 Porter, Indiana | 2423508 (±1506.0%) |  | 7.19 (±9.3%) |  |  | 256.180 (±77.4%) | 1430.25 (±110.1%) |
| 284 Hampshire, Massachusetts | 278 (±52.8%) |  | 16.97 (±12.3%) |  |  | 103.149 (±44.3%) | 167.95 (±96.3%) |
| 282 Cochise, Arizona | 95 (±1.9%) |  | 12.20 (±2.7%) |  |  | 37.081 (±3.5%) | 209.85 (±0.9%) |
| 280 Washington, Pennsylvania | 198308144 (±530.7%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 257.714 (±16.5%) | 1575.52 (±23.9%) |
| 275 Walker, Alabama | 118 (±1.7%) |  | 11.81 (±3.4%) |  |  | 39.041 (±2.9%) | 208.45 (±0.8%) |
| 272 Lafayette, Louisiana | 1763 (±409.7%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 178.620 (±89.8%) | 664.86 (±139.9%) |
| 270 Morgan, Alabama | 4857 (±104.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 147.399 (±12.6%) | 729.37 (±16.1%) |
| 267 Lycoming, Pennsylvania | 40397201 (±1523.0%) |  | 13.67 (±31.3%) |  |  | 286.447 (±53.6%) | 1701.53 (±78.1%) |
| 266 Washington, Maryland | 1143878 (±2032.7%) |  | 14.29 (±4.7%) |  |  | 263.827 (±109.0%) | 1456.10 (±155.8%) |
| 262 Alachua, Florida | 205 (±2.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 64.933 (±1.6%) | 302.50 (±1.0%) |
| 256 Garland, Arkansas | 306 (±5.9%) |  | 6.25 (±9.1%) |  |  | 65.525 (±2.6%) | 337.86 (±1.7%) |
| 255 Richmond City, Virginia | 4974924 (±838.9%) |  | 3.61 (±57.9%) |  |  | 364.868 (±38.5%) | 2037.30 (±56.8%) |
| 252 Tazewell, Illinois | 144192 (±964.2%) |  | 5.15 (±6.6%) |  |  | 159.430 (±70.9%) | 884.18 (±90.5%) |
| 250 St. Landry, Louisiana | 2934 (±492.1%) |  | 1.91 (±47.2%) |  |  | 202.864 (±91.8%) | 791.39 (±143.0%) |
| 249 Arlington, Virginia | 177 (±9.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 59.533 (±21.5%) | 32.15 (±125.2%) |
| 242 Washington, Tennessee | 394 (±76.7%) |  | 7.01 (±4.0%) |  |  | 61.026 (±30.3%) | 355.43 (±16.9%) |
| 241 Hays, Texas | 136 (±2.1%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 49.548 (±2.1%) | 248.75 (±0.8%) |
| 239 Wayne, North Carolina | 1672 (±191.3%) |  | 5.58 (±6.7%) |  |  | 142.318 (±36.9%) | 601.85 (±49.8%) |
| 237 Lauderdale, Mississippi | 380 (±73.8%) |  | 11.32 (±3.8%) |  |  | 117.581 (±36.9%) | 313.96 (±59.7%) |
| 232 Marin, California | 553 (±158.4%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 130.243 (±54.0%) | 427.62 (±81.4%) |
| 230 Howard, Maryland | 510 (±147.4%) |  | 3.89 (±26.5%) |  |  | 142.575 (±59.9%) | 396.31 (±104.9%) |
| 229 Newton, Georgia | 864 (±236.9%) |  | 4.75 (±8.9%) |  |  | 137.181 (±57.9%) | 528.31 (±81.2%) |
| 227 Carroll, Maryland | 198 (±34.1%) |  | 8.19 (±19.9%) |  |  | 94.917 (±40.8%) | 50.74 (±303.8%) |
| 223 Montgomery, Tennessee | 4876 (±607.7%) |  | 1.00 (±56.4%) |  |  | 159.335 (±79.7%) | 749.58 (±106.9%) |
| 217 Val Verde, Texas | 144 (±0.8%) |  | 8.86 (±2.8%) |  |  | 31.253 (±1.9%) | 227.22 (±0.3%) |
| 215 Durham, North Carolina | 628 (±245.0%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 163.356 (±76.1%) | 518.18 (±127.4%) |
| 214 Centre, Pennsylvania | 11811953 (±568.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 155.781 (±23.6%) | 973.98 (±30.1%) |
| 211 Union, North Carolina | 618 (±271.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 152.582 (±67.7%) | 560.97 (±100.9%) |
| 210 Madison, Mississippi | 297 (±67.6%) |  | 7.09 (±4.1%) |  |  | 103.759 (±31.0%) | 327.76 (±41.3%) |
| 208 Bowie, Texas | 4224 (±652.1%) |  | 11.10 (±6.7%) |  |  | 179.911 (±91.9%) | 801.77 (±130.6%) |
| 206 Rutherford, North Carolina | 1852 (±315.2%) |  | 4.09 (±31.8%) |  |  | 134.739 (±51.1%) | 620.91 (±65.0%) |
| 202 Elmore, Alabama | 81 (±2.1%) |  | 6.69 (±3.9%) |  |  | 49.378 (±2.5%) | 217.05 (±1.0%) |
| 199 Cape May, New Jersey | 172 (±29.6%) |  | 11.00 (±9.3%) |  |  | 87.757 (±27.7%) | 166.34 (±42.5%) |
| 198 Columbia, Georgia | 354 (±107.1%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 105.369 (±34.4%) | 407.47 (±41.5%) |
| 197 Wayne, Indiana | 98685 (±854.2%) |  | 6.30 (±13.5%) |  |  | 135.513 (±65.9%) | 776.01 (±78.6%) |
| 193 Butte, California | 88 (±2.9%) |  | 5.19 (±6.8%) |  |  | 44.320 (±3.1%) | 264.18 (±0.9%) |
| 191 Acadia, Louisiana | 838 (±262.7%) |  | 5.92 (±4.7%) |  |  | 158.701 (±70.1%) | 553.05 (±109.9%) |
| 189 Macon, Illinois | 15769686 (±1589.8%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 257.661 (±65.7%) | 1499.89 (±93.9%) |
| 188 Berkeley, South Carolina | 120 (±5.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 47.885 (±8.0%) | 196.64 (±3.5%) |
| 185 Roanoke City, Virginia | 9471 (±85.1%) |  | 5.04 (±7.5%) |  |  | 148.118 (±9.3%) | 754.97 (±11.8%) |
| 183 Henderson, Texas | 263 (±8.8%) |  | 10.50 (±6.6%) |  |  | 84.120 (±2.7%) | 397.57 (±2.4%) |
| 181 DeKalb, Alabama | 509 (±21.4%) |  | 6.82 (±10.4%) |  |  | 113.758 (±4.4%) | 517.28 (±5.1%) |
| 178 Craighead, Arkansas | 21769 (±42.6%) |  | 2.96 (±10.0%) |  |  | 136.169 (±4.2%) | 733.99 (±5.0%) |
| 174 Santa Cruz, Arizona | 75 (±1.3%) |  | 5.92 (±2.6%) |  |  | 31.885 (±3.4%) | 190.34 (±0.7%) |
| 173 Putnam, Tennessee | 342 (±8.1%) |  | 5.19 (±5.7%) |  |  | 81.732 (±2.7%) | 377.74 (±2.4%) |
| 171 Talladega, Alabama | 521 (±89.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 106.858 (±20.0%) | 484.74 (±22.5%) |
| 170 Coffee, Georgia | 1094 (±302.9%) |  | 5.35 (±6.3%) |  |  | 153.356 (±59.0%) | 629.55 (±83.2%) |
| 167 Chaves, New Mexico | 640667 (±234.5%) |  | 6.19 (±6.3%) |  |  | 155.561 (±12.9%) | 924.26 (±16.3%) |
| 166 Saline, Arkansas | 71447 (±907.2%) |  | 3.60 (±7.6%) |  |  | 166.923 (±68.3%) | 911.07 (±88.7%) |
| 165 Laurens, Georgia | 125 (±4.5%) |  | 6.88 (±4.9%) |  |  | 34.309 (±7.5%) | 251.51 (±1.2%) |
| 163 Lancaster, South Carolina | 86 (±1.2%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 47.932 (±1.4%) | 233.34 (±0.5%) |
| 161 Waupaca, Wisconsin | 674018 (±1481.8%) |  | 4.67 (±8.4%) |  |  | 213.211 (±86.4%) | 1182.00 (±119.3%) |
| 160 Pottawattamie, Iowa | 291 (±15.0%) |  | 6.27 (±6.2%) |  |  | 92.369 (±4.9%) | 389.98 (±5.1%) |
| 156 Carter, Tennessee | 292 (±15.2%) |  | 9.52 (±4.0%) |  |  | 79.628 (±4.7%) | 392.06 (±4.0%) |
| 154 Habersham, Georgia | 97 (±6.0%) |  | 11.79 (±4.2%) |  |  | 53.419 (±8.1%) | 182.10 (±4.3%) |
| 153 Michigan Department of Corrections (MDOC), Michigan | 603 (±234.4%) |  | 2.61 (±2.7%) |  |  | 204.627 (±68.7%) | 632.47 (±123.6%) |
| 152 Iberia, Louisiana | 247 (±56.5%) |  | 2.16 (±57.4%) |  |  | 107.974 (±30.5%) | 289.01 (±46.5%) |
| 149 Columbus, North Carolina | 197 (±95.4%) |  | 10.42 (±5.2%) |  |  | 119.227 (±44.3%) | 336.22 (±69.4%) |
| 148 Cherokee, South Carolina | 97 (±3.1%) |  | 8.15 (±4.1%) |  |  | 55.994 (±2.5%) | 259.51 (±1.2%) |
| 147 Limestone, Alabama | 120 (±7.8%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 72.090 (±3.6%) | 333.24 (±2.6%) |
| 146 Jackson, Georgia | 837 (±246.4%) |  | 3.60 (±12.5%) |  |  | 135.371 (±47.1%) | 584.76 (±61.8%) |
| 145 Ross, Ohio | 169 (±3.0%) |  | 6.97 (±6.4%) |  |  | 57.617 (±1.6%) | 318.70 (±0.8%) |
| 144 Lowndes, Mississippi | 73 (±1.3%) |  | 8.49 (±3.7%) |  |  | 36.242 (±2.4%) | 206.80 (±0.6%) |
| 142 Orange, Texas | 60 (±1.5%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 36.323 (±2.6%) | 225.62 (±0.6%) |
| 140 Bristol, Rhode Island | 183762 (±884.5%) |  | 28.85 (±4.5%) |  |  | 238.902 (±55.0%) | 1291.72 (±77.4%) |
| 137 Suwannee, Florida | 110 (±4.1%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 53.760 (±4.4%) | 215.86 (±2.2%) |
| 136 Putnam, Florida | 834 (±401.4%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 157.252 (±78.9%) | 637.64 (±112.9%) |
| 135 Marion, Ohio | 55531 (±645.2%) |  | 4.18 (±2.9%) |  |  | 256.133 (±51.5%) | 1292.06 (±74.3%) |
| 133 St. Mary, Louisiana | 140 (±12.7%) |  | 3.31 (±42.8%) |  |  | 73.093 (±11.0%) | 210.68 (±10.2%) |
| 132 Monroe, Mississippi | 155 (±47.3%) |  | 6.34 (±10.7%) |  |  | 97.650 (±29.7%) | 252.74 (±42.4%) |
| 130 Sarpy, Nebraska | 336 (±15.3%) |  | 4.23 (±5.6%) |  |  | 88.565 (±4.2%) | 419.14 (±4.0%) |
| 129 Shenandoah, Virginia | 66 (±0.7%) |  | 15.78 (±2.4%) |  |  | 38.539 (±1.5%) | 171.24 (±0.5%) |
| 128 Duplin, North Carolina | 60 (±0.7%) |  | 5.56 (±2.6%) |  |  | 33.793 (±1.8%) | 168.75 (±0.5%) |
| 127 Phelps, Missouri | 479 (±29.2%) |  | 7.60 (±5.2%) |  |  | 70.377 (±7.3%) | 416.79 (±5.1%) |
| 126 Bedford, Tennessee | 385611 (±1986.3%) |  | 7.40 (±9.3%) |  |  | 241.691 (±110.3%) | 1335.11 (±155.6%) |
| 125 Baldwin, Georgia | 371 (±245.0%) |  | 6.18 (±8.4%) |  |  | 157.923 (±75.8%) | 507.17 (±124.8%) |
| 124 Upson, Georgia | 104 (±10.1%) |  | 7.82 (±18.0%) |  |  | 71.271 (±10.7%) | 177.23 (±9.8%) |
| 123 Nassau, Florida | 64 (±0.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 33.103 (±1.7%) | 244.20 (±0.3%) |
| 121 Craven, North Carolina | 164 (±28.4%) |  | 4.26 (±9.8%) |  |  | 70.241 (±13.9%) | 315.71 (±10.3%) |
| 120 Wapello, Iowa | 99 (±3.4%) |  | 10.67 (±3.2%) |  |  | 57.090 (±3.6%) | 219.55 (±1.9%) |
| 119 Grady, Oklahoma | 11 (±5.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 5.000 (±59925917153.0%) | 17.00 (±1114413421354.2%) |
| 118 Lonoke, Arkansas | 190 (±4.9%) |  | 6.01 (±5.3%) |  |  | 58.139 (±2.0%) | 353.08 (±1.0%) |
| 117 Dubois, Indiana | 6748158 (±556.7%) |  | 8.40 (±12.7%) |  |  | 291.573 (±22.4%) | 1689.92 (±32.6%) |
| 116 Crawford, Arkansas | 150 (±8.6%) |  | 6.89 (±4.7%) |  |  | 69.397 (±3.2%) | 360.48 (±2.2%) |
| 114 Covington, Alabama | 35 (±1.1%) |  | 2.10 (±44.3%) |  |  | 34.769 (±2.2%) | 202.89 (±0.5%) |
| 113 Kosciusko, Indiana | 1027589 (±1294.0%) |  | 7.42 (±4.7%) |  |  | 214.473 (±66.5%) | 1221.16 (±91.8%) |
| 112 Union, Arkansas | 111 (±5.1%) |  | 9.01 (±8.1%) |  |  | 66.610 (±3.1%) | 285.06 (±2.1%) |
| 111 Bulloch, Georgia | 115 (±27.9%) |  | 2.86 (±15.5%) |  |  | 70.479 (±13.9%) | 312.29 (±10.4%) |
| 110 Dale, Alabama | 57 (±0.8%) |  | 5.60 (±4.5%) |  |  | 28.597 (±2.3%) | 219.60 (±0.3%) |
| 109 Chilton, Alabama | 58 (±3.1%) |  | 0.84 (±69.0%) |  |  | 45.808 (±3.0%) | 266.67 (±0.9%) |
| 108 El Dorado, California | 97799 (±1202.8%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 181.041 (±66.4%) | 1044.92 (±87.6%) |
| 107 Pope, Arkansas | 54 (±1.5%) |  | 5.07 (±6.1%) |  |  | 40.770 (±1.9%) | 247.43 (±0.5%) |
| 106 Gratiot, Michigan | 895838 (±882.8%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 248.748 (±44.4%) | 1399.14 (±62.9%) |
| 105 Franklin, Louisiana | 540 (±101.1%) |  | 8.64 (±3.5%) |  |  | 122.238 (±23.6%) | 507.09 (±30.1%) |
| 104 Dyer, Tennessee | 149 (±6.8%) |  | 5.53 (±6.4%) |  |  | 62.256 (±3.0%) | 339.48 (±1.7%) |
| 103 Autauga, Alabama | 505 (±397.7%) |  | 6.28 (±4.2%) |  |  | 162.909 (±81.6%) | 642.74 (±119.5%) |
| 101 Vernon, Louisiana | 70 (±0.8%) |  | 8.04 (±2.4%) |  |  | 38.288 (±1.3%) | 222.44 (±0.3%) |
| 100 Christian, Kentucky | 793 (±258.3%) |  | 3.69 (±70.9%) |  |  | 131.097 (±44.7%) | 596.18 (±56.4%) |
| 99 Monroe, Georgia | 100 (±23.8%) |  | 6.70 (±16.3%) |  |  | 74.281 (±16.7%) | 245.28 (±15.4%) |
| 98 Morton, North Dakota | 91 (±10.9%) |  | 2.67 (±5.3%) |  |  | 34.550 (±14.3%) | 280.96 (±2.1%) |
| 97 Hancock, West Virginia | 61593 (±155.3%) |  | 14.31 (±61.5%) |  |  | 79.435 (±10.3%) | 573.87 (±8.9%) |
| 96 Crittenden, Arkansas | 119 (±23.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 76.597 (±13.2%) | 284.11 (±12.0%) |
| 95 Lawrence, Alabama | 38 (±0.9%) |  | 6.36 (±8.2%) |  |  | 25.607 (±2.2%) | 258.00 (±0.2%) |
| 94 Coles, Illinois | 643 (±37.2%) |  | 1.82 (±53.9%) |  |  | 126.819 (±7.9%) | 540.27 (±10.1%) |
| 93 Wise, Virginia | 357 (±47.1%) |  | 11.91 (±4.9%) |  |  | 69.485 (±11.7%) | 415.18 (±8.1%) |
| 92 Gadsden, Florida | 61 (±0.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 33.861 (±1.1%) | 221.76 (±0.2%) |
| 91 Webster, Iowa | 624295 (±302.4%) |  | 3.63 (±9.6%) |  |  | 190.077 (±16.0%) | 1096.10 (±21.4%) |
| 90 Polk, Georgia | 58 (±3.7%) |  | 2.56 (±12.9%) |  |  | 55.157 (±2.7%) | 280.69 (±1.3%) |
| 89 Knox, Indiana | 8629562 (±464.7%) |  | 5.05 (±7.1%) |  |  | 198.582 (±18.8%) | 1198.54 (±25.6%) |
| 88 Gibson, Indiana | 871 (±42.4%) |  | 4.50 (±19.3%) |  |  | 77.294 (±7.9%) | 461.41 (±6.2%) |
| 87 Okeechobee, Florida | 53 (±1.1%) |  | 5.21 (±3.1%) |  |  | 38.160 (±1.5%) | 252.47 (±0.3%) |
| 86 Crow Wing, Minnesota | 134144 (±428.8%) |  | 3.91 (±33.2%) |  |  | 226.811 (±27.5%) | 1223.42 (±38.4%) |
| 85 Walton, Florida | 64 (±3.6%) |  | 1.83 (±24.4%) |  |  | 68.901 (±2.4%) | 267.28 (±1.8%) |
| 84 Wayne, Georgia | 55 (±3.0%) |  | 6.04 (±4.0%) |  |  | 42.591 (±4.1%) | 249.11 (±0.9%) |
| 83 Livingston, Illinois | 44440457 (±500.3%) |  | 4.04 (±11.8%) |  |  | 199.787 (±16.5%) | 1243.98 (±22.8%) |
| 82 Franklin, Alabama | 35 (±0.5%) |  | 6.08 (±5.7%) |  |  | 38.178 (±1.0%) | 184.93 (±0.3%) |
| 81 Macoupin, Illinois | 906162 (±415.7%) |  | 4.99 (±6.1%) |  |  | 155.763 (±20.7%) | 943.20 (±26.2%) |
| 80 Meriwether, Georgia | 23 (±1.3%) |  | 9.12 (±31.1%) |  |  | 46.180 (±1.5%) | 235.78 (±0.5%) |
| 79 Boone, Arkansas | 75 (±3.4%) |  | 5.83 (±6.0%) |  |  | 40.752 (±3.0%) | 296.72 (±0.7%) |
| 78 La Paz, Arizona | 32 (±6.1%) |  | 12.22 (±4.6%) |  |  | 58.185 (±5.2%) | 242.33 (±3.0%) |
| 77 Graham, Arizona | 46 (±3.5%) |  | 5.02 (±8.0%) |  |  | 45.524 (±4.1%) | 242.00 (±1.3%) |
| 76 Pike, Alabama | 209 (±80.7%) |  | 8.92 (±7.6%) |  |  | 135.441 (±17.0%) | 570.35 (±22.1%) |
| 75 Geneva, Alabama | 50064 (±614.3%) |  | 5.60 (±25.3%) |  |  | 190.430 (±39.1%) | 1059.69 (±52.2%) |
| 74 Escambia, Alabama | 34 (±0.7%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 39.700 (±1.1%) | 206.80 (±0.3%) |
| 73 Harrison, Iowa | 117 (±11.1%) |  | 5.09 (±27.7%) |  |  | 49.099 (±5.0%) | 348.41 (±1.9%) |
| 72 Winston, Alabama | 72 (±24.1%) |  | 8.84 (±5.5%) |  |  | 86.093 (±9.4%) | 357.22 (±9.1%) |
| 71 Hot Spring, Arkansas | 60 (±2.7%) |  | 4.07 (±7.2%) |  |  | 47.280 (±2.8%) | 259.90 (±0.9%) |
| 70 Appling, Georgia | 63 (±3.6%) |  | 5.70 (±4.3%) |  |  | 70.724 (±2.8%) | 240.60 (±2.2%) |
| 69 Jackson, Indiana | 610 (±30.8%) |  | 6.80 (±10.9%) |  |  | 95.922 (±5.9%) | 493.63 (±5.8%) |
| 68 Chattooga, Georgia | 46 (±11.2%) |  | 3.22 (±18.0%) |  |  | 38.005 (±13.8%) | 271.98 (±2.6%) |
| 67 Yell, Arkansas | 37 (±0.9%) |  | 5.61 (±6.4%) |  |  | 34.246 (±1.8%) | 213.73 (±0.4%) |
| 66 Butler, Alabama | 41 (±0.5%) |  | 8.18 (±2.6%) |  |  | 26.650 (±1.8%) | 151.32 (±0.5%) |
| 65 Tattnall, Georgia | 81 (±9.5%) |  | 7.45 (±3.9%) |  |  | 63.125 (±4.2%) | 341.70 (±2.5%) |
| 64 Jefferson, Georgia | 42 (±4.5%) |  | 4.78 (±11.6%) |  |  | 34.579 (±8.0%) | 241.86 (±1.4%) |
| 63 Otero, Colorado | 1361173 (±912.6%) |  | 14.07 (±67.3%) |  |  | 183.259 (±40.4%) | 1099.87 (±53.8%) |
| 62 Hancock, Georgia | 44 (±0.8%) |  | 18.37 (±2.5%) |  |  | 26.831 (±2.9%) | 147.11 (±0.8%) |
| 61 Marengo, Alabama | 76 (±134.3%) |  | 7.99 (±3.7%) |  |  | 124.266 (±56.7%) | 366.33 (±88.4%) |
| 60 Bibb, Alabama | 1103930 (±494.5%) |  | 5.45 (±3.7%) |  |  | 198.292 (±23.6%) | 1158.72 (±32.0%) |
| 59 Perry, Illinois | 5328 (±273.9%) |  | 4.76 (±59.7%) |  |  | 150.540 (±28.3%) | 778.98 (±35.7%) |
| 58 West Baton Rouge, Louisiana | 58 (±21.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 86.284 (±30.0%) | 8.03 (±2905.3%) |
| 57 Telfair, Georgia | 41 (±1.8%) |  | 9.64 (±6.3%) |  |  | 49.482 (±1.7%) | 256.34 (±0.7%) |
| 56 Tehama, California | 53 (±4.3%) |  | 4.92 (±5.2%) |  |  | 43.219 (±2.8%) | 320.95 (±0.8%) |
| 55 Clay, Alabama | 330612 (±259.5%) |  | 6.64 (±3.0%) |  |  | 206.461 (±13.9%) | 1172.64 (±19.0%) |
| 54 Towns, Georgia | 149 (±16.5%) |  | 9.68 (±3.0%) |  |  | 73.799 (±5.0%) | 393.52 (±3.7%) |
| 53 Lowndes, Alabama | 29 (±0.6%) |  | 8.19 (±2.9%) |  |  | 29.805 (±1.9%) | 151.84 (±0.6%) |
| 52 Holmes, Florida | 51 (±12.4%) |  | 4.53 (±22.3%) |  |  | 70.748 (±5.2%) | 347.61 (±3.7%) |
| 51 Bleckley, Georgia | 36 (±1.5%) |  | 2.60 (±50.7%) |  |  | 38.345 (±2.3%) | 244.35 (±0.5%) |
| 50 Clay, Arkansas | 1518 (±48.0%) |  | 6.70 (±12.5%) |  |  | 137.389 (±6.1%) | 687.10 (±7.5%) |
| 49 Franklin, Georgia | 31 (±1.8%) |  | 5.53 (±11.9%) |  |  | 48.859 (±1.7%) | 262.07 (±0.6%) |
| 48 Macon, Alabama | 78 (±93.2%) |  | 7.04 (±3.1%) |  |  | 112.882 (±36.6%) | 371.58 (±50.5%) |
| 47 Fulton, Arkansas | 17204 (±533.5%) |  | 6.69 (±10.9%) |  |  | 140.029 (±42.2%) | 793.23 (±50.8%) |
| 46 Amador, California | 17 (±1.3%) |  | 9.15 (±5.3%) |  |  | 12.478 (±9.1%) | 224.61 (±0.4%) |
| 45 Lincoln, Kentucky | 21 (±0.9%) |  | 12.92 (±6.1%) |  |  | 26.913 (±2.2%) | 248.71 (±0.3%) |
| 44 Carroll, Arkansas | 270 (±40.0%) |  | 6.72 (±5.1%) |  |  | 115.460 (±8.4%) | 520.34 (±9.8%) |
| 43 Lawrence, Arkansas | 98131 (±1025.5%) |  | 3.51 (±43.1%) |  |  | 256.774 (±65.6%) | 1366.14 (±93.8%) |
| 42 Gulf, Florida | 37 (±13.8%) |  | 4.50 (±4.4%) |  |  | 61.477 (±10.3%) | 282.79 (±5.1%) |
| 41 Izard, Arkansas | 25 (±22.0%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 47.467 (±9.1%) | 355.86 (±3.3%) |
| 40 Bullock, Alabama | 21 (±2.0%) |  | 7.10 (±4.3%) |  |  | 48.079 (±3.2%) | 182.86 (±1.2%) |
| 39 Franklin, Arkansas | 40 (±9.6%) |  | 7.46 (±7.8%) |  |  | 32.373 (±6.3%) | 338.34 (±1.0%) |
| 38 Arkansas, Arkansas | 35 (±3.1%) |  | 6.77 (±5.1%) |  |  | 42.357 (±2.8%) | 293.59 (±0.7%) |
| 37 Gem, Idaho | 53952 (±716.6%) |  | 7.82 (±7.2%) |  |  | 154.508 (±44.2%) | 899.48 (±55.5%) |
| 36 Bacon, Georgia | 47 (±4.4%) |  | 6.39 (±3.1%) |  |  | 70.428 (±2.3%) | 302.33 (±1.8%) |
| 35 Lee, Arkansas | 21 (±1.3%) |  | 2.95 (±12.0%) |  |  | 35.194 (±2.5%) | 220.69 (±0.5%) |
| 34 Greene, Alabama | 19 (±0.9%) |  | 11.16 (±3.7%) |  |  | 43.124 (±1.7%) | 182.20 (±0.6%) |
| 33 Ashley, Arkansas | 26 (±5.3%) |  | 3.62 (±19.7%) |  |  | 60.018 (±3.8%) | 275.33 (±2.1%) |
| 32 Sumter, Alabama | 22 (±0.6%) |  | 7.51 (±2.1%) |  |  | 33.880 (±1.5%) | 159.51 (±0.5%) |
| 31 Blackford, Indiana | 395265 (±371.5%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 170.962 (±18.7%) | 1014.28 (±24.3%) |
| 30 Marion, Arkansas | 155370 (±623.6%) |  | 4.70 (±14.8%) |  |  | 113.121 (±34.0%) | 733.88 (±37.4%) |
| 29 Evans, Georgia | 19 (±7.2%) |  | 4.53 (±11.8%) |  |  | 51.210 (±6.1%) | 279.74 (±2.2%) |
| 28 Morgan, Georgia | 11 (±4.0%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 41.437 (±4.2%) | 282.28 (±0.9%) |
| 27 Perry, Alabama | 9 (±5.5%) |  | 1.77 (±56.3%) |  |  | 52.793 (±7.4%) | 219.81 (±2.3%) |
| 26 Newton, Arkansas | 23 (±1.0%) |  | 4.35 (±23.0%) |  |  | 27.271 (±3.2%) | 224.03 (±0.4%) |
| 25 Glenn, California | 30593 (±526.7%) |  | 2.83 (±16.5%) |  |  | 175.145 (±34.4%) | 981.49 (±45.0%) |
| 24 Choctaw, Alabama | 14 (±1.6%) |  | 7.59 (±3.3%) |  |  | 16.135 (±10.0%) | 143.53 (±1.4%) |
| 23 Madison, Arkansas | 51 (±29.2%) |  | 6.60 (±4.2%) |  |  | 87.985 (±8.2%) | 420.38 (±7.6%) |
| 22 Kenai Peninsula, Alaska | 143625 (±520.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 181.959 (±28.0%) | 1052.91 (±37.1%) |
| 21 Prowers, Colorado | 25 (±9.7%) |  | 5.24 (±30.3%) |  |  | 32.886 (±10.4%) | 317.94 (±1.1%) |
| 20 Routt, Colorado | 7653 (±717.4%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 282.849 (±61.3%) | 1388.87 (±90.1%) |
| 19 Marion, Georgia | 12 (±1.5%) |  | 8.03 (±7.2%) |  |  | 47.285 (±1.9%) | 211.15 (±0.8%) |
| 17 Tillman, Oklahoma | 20161 (±295.8%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 188.394 (±19.1%) | 1042.66 (±25.5%) |
For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.