Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People in the US
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of dead people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.
Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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Actualisation date: Fri Aug 14 05:54:30 UTC 2020
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| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_dead | death rate (err) | death_rate | deaths_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 23602 New York, New York | 22972 (±0.2%) |  | 11.47 (±0.9%) |  |  | 12.070 (±0.9%) | 99.73 (±0.2%) |
| 5112 Los Angeles, California | 5360 (±1.7%) |  | 4.24 (±4.9%) |  |  | 29.651 (±1.9%) | 145.36 (±0.7%) |
| 2828 Wayne, Michigan | 2745 (±0.2%) |  | 13.07 (±1.6%) |  |  | 14.320 (±0.8%) | 107.30 (±0.1%) |
| 2493 Maricopa, Arizona | 66016 (±41.6%) |  | 1.11 (±58.6%) |  |  | 71.557 (±6.1%) | 363.76 (±6.9%) |
| 2113 Essex, New Jersey | 2029 (±0.7%) |  | 11.90 (±1.2%) |  |  | 17.595 (±2.1%) | 111.82 (±0.5%) |
| 2046 Bergen, New Jersey | 5801 (±5.9%) |  | 11.17 (±1.2%) |  |  | -47.249 (±-7.0%) | 208.22 (±5.4%) |
| 2006 Middlesex, Massachusetts | 1927 (±0.4%) |  | 8.62 (±1.0%) |  |  | 16.048 (±1.1%) | 119.26 (±0.2%) |
| 1998 Suffolk, New York | 1993 (±0.2%) |  | 5.21 (±1.4%) |  |  | 14.205 (±0.7%) | 109.41 (±0.1%) |
| 1709 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | 1684 (±0.2%) |  | 7.06 (±2.4%) |  |  | 18.048 (±0.6%) | 121.89 (±0.1%) |
| 1505 Hudson, New Jersey | 1463 (±0.7%) |  | 8.33 (±1.5%) |  |  | 17.843 (±2.0%) | 113.93 (±0.4%) |
| 1447 Westchester, New York | 1421 (±0.3%) |  | 4.80 (±3.1%) |  |  | 12.836 (±1.2%) | 105.43 (±0.2%) |
| 1410 Fairfield, Connecticut | 980 (±4.4%) |  | 9.12 (±1.9%) |  |  | -16.273 (±-28991094118772.5%) | -503.96 (±-29401033842916.6%) |
| 1409 Middlesex, New Jersey | 1411 (±0.9%) |  | 9.01 (±1.7%) |  |  | 21.410 (±2.0%) | 121.21 (±0.5%) |
| 1247 Passaic, New Jersey | 1219 (±0.8%) |  | 8.02 (±2.1%) |  |  | 18.850 (±2.0%) | 119.10 (±0.4%) |
| 1109 New Haven, Connecticut | 1093 (±0.1%) |  | 9.58 (±1.6%) |  |  | 15.754 (±0.4%) | 116.56 (±0.1%) |
| 1076 Suffolk, Massachusetts | 1023 (±0.4%) |  | 5.84 (±2.1%) |  |  | 15.177 (±1.3%) | 116.62 (±0.2%) |
| 1020 Ocean, New Jersey | 1022 (±0.5%) |  | 11.50 (±1.9%) |  |  | 20.701 (±1.2%) | 121.81 (±0.3%) |
| 1018 Unassigned, Rhode Island | 1027 (±0.2%) |  | 58.56 (±2.1%) |  |  | 19.876 (±0.5%) | 128.73 (±0.1%) |
| 1007 Worcester, Massachusetts | 984 (±0.2%) |  | 8.26 (±1.5%) |  |  | 17.290 (±0.5%) | 126.75 (±0.1%) |
| 997 Norfolk, Massachusetts | 877 (±70.4%) |  | 11.03 (±1.1%) |  |  | 73.827 (±74.7%) | -389.81 (±-97.7%) |
| 954 Palm Beach, Florida | 1769 (±7.6%) |  | 5.09 (±11.1%) |  |  | 46.108 (±3.7%) | 195.13 (±3.0%) |
| 949 Macomb, Michigan | 917 (±0.3%) |  | 12.98 (±1.7%) |  |  | 14.474 (±1.1%) | 107.56 (±0.2%) |
| 859 Broward, Florida | 3273 (±40.8%) |  | 7.11 (±6.9%) |  |  | 63.988 (±11.9%) | 264.52 (±13.6%) |
| 842 Clark, Nevada | 1288 (±12.4%) |  | 6.68 (±8.3%) |  |  | 45.953 (±6.7%) | 183.04 (±5.6%) |
| 830 Morris, New Jersey | 710 (±140.5%) |  | 12.89 (±1.2%) |  |  | 72.329 (±141.6%) | -380.74 (±-188.0%) |
| 826 Bexar, Texas | 212999 (±216.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 69.751 (±19.4%) | 409.73 (±21.1%) |
| 794 Dallas, Texas | 2407 (±11.8%) |  | 3.02 (±8.4%) |  |  | 52.379 (±4.0%) | 235.07 (±3.7%) |
| 764 Prince George’s, Maryland | 737 (±0.3%) |  | 4.70 (±4.5%) |  |  | 18.860 (±0.6%) | 124.97 (±0.1%) |
| 745 Orange, California | 1916 (±3.6%) |  | 3.11 (±9.7%) |  |  | 44.737 (±1.3%) | 221.14 (±1.0%) |
| 731 Marion, Indiana | 630 (±65.0%) |  | 6.94 (±3.2%) |  |  | 72.035 (±64.1%) | -378.78 (±-85.6%) |
| 723 Plymouth, Massachusetts | 697 (±0.4%) |  | 8.60 (±1.4%) |  |  | 17.539 (±1.1%) | 121.11 (±0.2%) |
| 709 Hampden, Massachusetts | 680 (±0.4%) |  | 10.85 (±1.5%) |  |  | 16.366 (±1.1%) | 114.44 (±0.2%) |
| 686 King, Washington | -494 (±-0.7%) |  | 7.48 (±2.8%) |  |  | -123.771 (±-1.0%) | 726.69 (±1.0%) |
| 674 Rockland, New York | 582 (±54.0%) |  | 5.33 (±1.3%) |  |  | 65.132 (±58.9%) | -344.57 (±-76.3%) |
| 672 St. Louis, Missouri | 623 (±0.7%) |  | 10.16 (±3.7%) |  |  | 19.006 (±1.7%) | 119.61 (±0.4%) |
| 671 Erie, New York | 666 (±0.2%) |  | 9.19 (±2.9%) |  |  | 18.339 (±0.6%) | 121.31 (±0.1%) |
| 621 Mercer, New Jersey | 1724 (±6.3%) |  | 8.58 (±1.8%) |  |  | -43.843 (±-7.6%) | 205.02 (±5.2%) |
| 593 District of Columbia, District of Columbia | 579 (±0.2%) |  | 6.35 (±3.2%) |  |  | 17.621 (±0.7%) | 121.27 (±0.1%) |
| 582 Bucks, Pennsylvania | 574 (±0.2%) |  | 10.17 (±1.7%) |  |  | 15.060 (±0.6%) | 121.01 (±0.1%) |
| 580 Camden, New Jersey | 606 (±0.8%) |  | 8.19 (±1.8%) |  |  | 24.105 (±1.4%) | 134.60 (±0.4%) |
| 567 Baltimore, Maryland | 2129 (±5.6%) |  | 6.98 (±4.2%) |  |  | -69.464 (±-5.6%) | 293.97 (±4.6%) |
| 564 Orleans, Louisiana | 456 (±27.0%) |  | 7.31 (±1.8%) |  |  | 62.434 (±30.2%) | -331.25 (±-38.7%) |
| 555 San Bernardino, California | 1234 (±19.8%) |  | 4.07 (±9.9%) |  |  | 51.976 (±7.8%) | 218.03 (±7.3%) |
| 531 Franklin, Ohio | 1014 (±7.4%) |  | 4.92 (±3.6%) |  |  | 95.667 (±3.7%) | -414.99 (±-2.6%) |
| 522 Pinellas, Florida | 11482 (±41.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 68.820 (±6.4%) | 350.24 (±7.0%) |
| 512 Cuyahoga, Ohio | 534 (±1.2%) |  | 6.70 (±5.7%) |  |  | 28.209 (±1.5%) | 143.79 (±0.5%) |
| 505 Pima, Arizona | 833 (±7.2%) |  | 3.36 (±27.1%) |  |  | 42.270 (±4.0%) | 184.74 (±2.8%) |
| 474 Burlington, New Jersey | 484 (±0.6%) |  | 9.22 (±1.5%) |  |  | 22.212 (±1.2%) | 130.99 (±0.3%) |
| 469 Tarrant, Texas | 838 (±10.1%) |  | 4.02 (±7.1%) |  |  | 45.342 (±4.8%) | 198.24 (±3.8%) |
| 462 Milwaukee, Wisconsin | 440 (±0.8%) |  | 4.39 (±7.0%) |  |  | 22.862 (±1.5%) | 120.59 (±0.4%) |
| 455 Fulton, Georgia | 423 (±1.5%) |  | 7.42 (±5.4%) |  |  | 27.230 (±2.0%) | 134.37 (±0.7%) |
| 449 Lake, Illinois | 458 (±0.5%) |  | 4.94 (±3.2%) |  |  | 21.181 (±1.0%) | 128.61 (±0.2%) |
| 434 Baltimore City, Maryland | 1322 (±2.6%) |  | 5.78 (±4.6%) |  |  | -56.549 (±-2.9%) | 249.98 (±2.2%) |
| 426 Hillsborough, Florida | 22025 (±56.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 80.857 (±7.0%) | 412.86 (±8.4%) |
| 417 Denver, Colorado | 404 (±0.3%) |  | 5.96 (±3.0%) |  |  | 18.133 (±0.8%) | 120.76 (±0.2%) |
| 372 Berks, Pennsylvania | 365 (±0.4%) |  | 9.12 (±2.5%) |  |  | 15.989 (±1.3%) | 123.69 (±0.2%) |
| 362 Lee, Florida | 1152 (±15.2%) |  | 3.82 (±25.2%) |  |  | 54.207 (±4.8%) | 242.14 (±4.7%) |
| 360 East Baton Rouge, Louisiana | 305 (±1.0%) |  | 8.08 (±6.6%) |  |  | 19.540 (±2.4%) | 117.41 (±0.6%) |
| 346 Will, Illinois | 334 (±0.3%) |  | 5.72 (±4.6%) |  |  | 18.073 (±0.9%) | 116.04 (±0.2%) |
| 338 Lehigh, Pennsylvania | 340 (±0.4%) |  | 9.01 (±2.3%) |  |  | 20.154 (±0.9%) | 131.59 (±0.2%) |
| 334 Polk, Florida | 90630 (±107.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 93.781 (±9.6%) | 501.88 (±12.1%) |
| 326 Cobb, Georgia | 318 (±1.1%) |  | 6.45 (±5.4%) |  |  | 26.543 (±1.5%) | 133.62 (±0.5%) |
| 315 Shelby, Tennessee | 450 (±2.2%) |  | 4.03 (±6.7%) |  |  | 37.773 (±1.5%) | 172.67 (±0.9%) |
| 313 Travis, Texas | 3814 (±65.4%) |  | 4.12 (±9.0%) |  |  | 75.659 (±12.0%) | 347.67 (±14.5%) |
| 305 Kane, Illinois | 310 (±0.4%) |  | 3.30 (±4.5%) |  |  | 21.355 (±0.7%) | 136.48 (±0.2%) |
| 297 Genesee, Michigan | 288 (±0.2%) |  | 11.12 (±1.9%) |  |  | 12.878 (±0.9%) | 107.28 (±0.1%) |
| 296 Caddo, Louisiana | 198 (±1.8%) |  | 10.05 (±4.8%) |  |  | -27.646 (±-3.8%) | 78.99 (±9.3%) |
| 295 Unassigned, Puerto Rico | 280 (±7.1%) |  | 75.65 (±3.5%) |  |  | 36.024 (±6.9%) | 140.27 (±3.8%) |
| 293 Northampton, Pennsylvania | 286 (±0.6%) |  | 9.46 (±2.6%) |  |  | 18.202 (±1.6%) | 124.54 (±0.3%) |
| 291 New Castle, Delaware | 297 (±1.1%) |  | 5.90 (±3.9%) |  |  | 24.592 (±1.7%) | 136.12 (±0.4%) |
| 290 Yuma, Arizona | 536 (±3.1%) |  | 2.64 (±7.7%) |  |  | 31.221 (±1.6%) | 203.92 (±0.6%) |
| 285 Monroe, New York | 284 (±0.4%) |  | 7.24 (±3.3%) |  |  | 20.232 (±0.8%) | 120.23 (±0.2%) |
| 281 Lake, Indiana | 269 (±0.4%) |  | 6.22 (±3.4%) |  |  | 20.465 (±1.0%) | 125.51 (±0.2%) |
| 280 Hillsborough, New Hampshire | 282 (±0.7%) |  | 7.95 (±1.0%) |  |  | 18.230 (±1.5%) | 146.52 (±0.2%) |
| 275 Gwinnett, Georgia | 262 (±2.6%) |  | 4.62 (±7.0%) |  |  | 29.490 (±3.1%) | 140.19 (±1.2%) |
| 269 Ramsey, Minnesota | 270 (±0.5%) |  | 4.98 (±2.4%) |  |  | 20.749 (±0.9%) | 144.87 (±0.2%) |
| 261 Jefferson, Alabama | 376 (±5.6%) |  | 5.14 (±13.2%) |  |  | 40.799 (±3.4%) | 176.97 (±2.3%) |
| 259 Hamilton, Ohio | 246 (±1.1%) |  | 4.61 (±6.4%) |  |  | 24.167 (±2.0%) | 131.15 (±0.5%) |
| 256 Mahoning, Ohio | 252 (±0.4%) |  | 13.66 (±1.9%) |  |  | 20.388 (±0.8%) | 123.88 (±0.2%) |
| 252 Imperial, California | 610 (±5.4%) |  | 1.98 (±11.7%) |  |  | 38.620 (±2.2%) | 217.13 (±1.3%) |
| 247 DeKalb, Georgia | 244 (±1.5%) |  | 4.94 (±4.8%) |  |  | 27.530 (±1.9%) | 142.07 (±0.6%) |
| 244 Jefferson, Kentucky | 231 (±1.0%) |  | 6.17 (±4.9%) |  |  | 23.575 (±1.8%) | 123.09 (±0.5%) |
| 243 Mecklenburg, North Carolina | 283 (±3.3%) |  | 3.50 (±11.3%) |  |  | 34.607 (±2.7%) | 159.36 (±1.3%) |
| 242 Manatee, Florida | 206 (±3.8%) |  | 6.58 (±15.3%) |  |  | 30.774 (±4.2%) | 141.81 (±1.7%) |
| 233 Jefferson, Colorado | 229 (±0.3%) |  | 8.74 (±3.3%) |  |  | 20.155 (±0.8%) | 124.98 (±0.2%) |
| 229 McKinley, New Mexico | 227 (±0.9%) |  | 7.36 (±2.9%) |  |  | 22.519 (±1.5%) | 144.56 (±0.3%) |
| 224 Summit, Ohio | 216 (±0.5%) |  | 9.13 (±2.6%) |  |  | 16.854 (±1.3%) | 128.44 (±0.2%) |
| 221 Davidson, Tennessee | 461 (±3.9%) |  | 3.25 (±7.6%) |  |  | 43.690 (±1.8%) | 203.34 (±1.3%) |
| 218 Greenville, South Carolina | 7121 (±95.1%) |  | 2.47 (±20.9%) |  |  | 84.584 (±13.2%) | 409.90 (±16.5%) |
| 216 Mobile, Alabama | 189 (±2.6%) |  | 6.28 (±6.9%) |  |  | 25.902 (±4.1%) | 130.24 (±1.2%) |
| 215 Yakima, Washington | 259 (±1.7%) |  | 3.46 (±8.2%) |  |  | 31.914 (±1.7%) | 151.19 (±0.7%) |
| 214 Gloucester, New Jersey | 204 (±0.6%) |  | 8.62 (±2.5%) |  |  | 19.325 (±1.5%) | 129.26 (±0.3%) |
| 212 Lackawanna, Pennsylvania | 213 (±0.3%) |  | 12.75 (±1.8%) |  |  | 17.684 (±0.9%) | 121.14 (±0.2%) |
| 210 Duval, Florida | 111237 (±234.7%) |  | 5.88 (±12.4%) |  |  | 111.851 (±18.5%) | 594.03 (±24.7%) |
| 209 Alameda, California | 252 (±4.0%) |  | 4.53 (±6.2%) |  |  | 36.434 (±3.4%) | 152.05 (±1.9%) |
| 208 Polk, Iowa | 201 (±0.4%) |  | 3.19 (±3.8%) |  |  | 19.729 (±0.9%) | 135.50 (±0.2%) |
| 206 Charleston, South Carolina | 768 (±20.0%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 35.142 (±6.2%) | 234.54 (±3.2%) |
| 205 Tulare, California | 242 (±2.4%) |  | 4.17 (±9.5%) |  |  | 33.255 (±2.1%) | 157.37 (±1.0%) |
| 204 Navajo, Arizona | 295 (±2.8%) |  | 5.04 (±5.8%) |  |  | 35.683 (±1.9%) | 176.34 (±1.0%) |
| 202 Salt Lake, Utah | 281 (±5.5%) |  | 2.99 (±7.6%) |  |  | 38.746 (±3.6%) | 174.99 (±2.2%) |
| 198 Sussex, New Jersey | 194 (±0.8%) |  | 16.73 (±0.8%) |  |  | 18.539 (±2.3%) | 114.52 (±0.5%) |
| 192 Middlesex, Connecticut | 145 (±2.0%) |  | 15.14 (±1.8%) |  |  | -24.914 (±-3.9%) | 83.95 (±8.0%) |
| 191 Fresno, California | 604 (±19.9%) |  | 3.05 (±9.7%) |  |  | 50.089 (±6.1%) | 244.06 (±5.2%) |
| 186 Henrico, Virginia | 171 (±1.5%) |  | 7.91 (±4.5%) |  |  | 20.244 (±3.8%) | 114.34 (±0.9%) |
| 185 San Juan, New Mexico | 182 (±0.4%) |  | 7.43 (±2.1%) |  |  | 20.052 (±0.9%) | 130.69 (±0.2%) |
| 184 Luzerne, Pennsylvania | 181 (±0.4%) |  | 7.02 (±1.9%) |  |  | 17.085 (±1.3%) | 117.65 (±0.3%) |
| 183 Kern, California | 569 (±11.4%) |  | 4.13 (±8.9%) |  |  | 48.777 (±3.7%) | 237.88 (±3.1%) |
| 179 Sacramento, California | 5854 (±179.8%) |  | 8.25 (±6.2%) |  |  | 100.335 (±24.5%) | 464.32 (±33.3%) |
| 178 Mohave, Arizona | 352 (±9.0%) |  | 4.78 (±14.9%) |  |  | 42.586 (±4.1%) | 205.10 (±2.8%) |
| 177 Adams, Colorado | 171 (±0.5%) |  | 4.63 (±4.3%) |  |  | 20.772 (±1.1%) | 122.00 (±0.2%) |
| 173 Fort Bend, Texas | 81042 (±430.7%) |  | 6.25 (±6.1%) |  |  | 114.288 (±34.7%) | 601.45 (±46.6%) |
| 172 Dougherty, Georgia | 157 (±0.5%) |  | 9.18 (±2.1%) |  |  | 14.465 (±1.9%) | 100.86 (±0.4%) |
| 166 Sarasota, Florida | 127 (±2.2%) |  | 5.75 (±30.0%) |  |  | 25.872 (±3.5%) | 129.19 (±1.0%) |
| 164 Pinal, Arizona | 1896 (±37.4%) |  | 3.12 (±20.1%) |  |  | 68.575 (±7.1%) | 326.93 (±8.0%) |
| 163 Allen, Indiana | 210 (±4.2%) |  | 6.16 (±5.5%) |  |  | 34.599 (±3.6%) | 156.05 (±1.8%) |
| 160 Brevard, Florida | 52112 (±234.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 67.940 (±20.2%) | 406.60 (±21.6%) |
| 158 Barnstable, Massachusetts | 157 (±0.4%) |  | 10.54 (±2.5%) |  |  | 18.929 (±0.9%) | 126.38 (±0.2%) |
| 156 Guilford, North Carolina | 171 (±1.0%) |  | 4.44 (±6.5%) |  |  | 28.320 (±1.2%) | 149.31 (±0.4%) |
| 153 Montgomery, Alabama | 178 (±0.9%) |  | 2.15 (±11.2%) |  |  | 27.396 (±0.9%) | 165.92 (±0.3%) |
| 149 Contra Costa, California | 562 (±19.0%) |  | 6.48 (±6.7%) |  |  | 58.080 (±5.6%) | 254.97 (±5.8%) |
| 147 Calcasieu, Louisiana | 32619 (±301.6%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 115.637 (±28.1%) | 584.05 (±38.3%) |
| 146 Collier, Florida | 223 (±5.4%) |  | 3.25 (±16.2%) |  |  | 39.969 (±3.1%) | 183.18 (±2.0%) |
| 145 Weld, Colorado | 139 (±0.2%) |  | 5.57 (±2.8%) |  |  | 14.488 (±0.7%) | 105.61 (±0.1%) |
| 143 Pierce, Washington | 136 (±1.8%) |  | 6.61 (±3.8%) |  |  | 27.878 (±2.5%) | 129.17 (±0.9%) |
| 142 Stark, Ohio | 126 (±0.8%) |  | 11.72 (±3.4%) |  |  | 20.234 (±1.9%) | 122.90 (±0.4%) |
| 140 El Paso, Colorado | 128 (±1.1%) |  | 7.01 (±5.2%) |  |  | 22.098 (±2.5%) | 111.43 (±0.7%) |
| 139 Litchfield, Connecticut | 137 (±0.2%) |  | 9.70 (±1.2%) |  |  | 13.673 (±0.8%) | 110.96 (±0.1%) |
| 137 Seminole, Florida | 430999 (±392.4%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 86.445 (±23.7%) | 516.49 (±28.7%) |
| 136 Pasco, Florida | 45230 (±201.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 75.304 (±17.2%) | 435.31 (±19.5%) |
| 134 Bernalillo, New Mexico | 135 (±3.0%) |  | 6.87 (±5.8%) |  |  | 30.831 (±3.6%) | 137.36 (±1.4%) |
| 131 Winnebago, Illinois | 135 (±1.1%) |  | 4.03 (±2.0%) |  |  | 25.122 (±1.5%) | 148.57 (±0.4%) |
| 130 Hampshire, Massachusetts | 124 (±0.6%) |  | 12.88 (±1.0%) |  |  | 18.612 (±1.4%) | 128.81 (±0.3%) |
| 128 Albany, New York | 128 (±0.8%) |  | 5.68 (±1.4%) |  |  | 19.218 (±2.0%) | 125.29 (±0.4%) |
| 126 Hunterdon, New Jersey | 153 (±4.3%) |  | 11.91 (±1.7%) |  |  | 28.997 (±5.0%) | 146.34 (±1.7%) |
| 124 Monroe, Pennsylvania | 119 (±0.7%) |  | 9.46 (±1.5%) |  |  | 19.114 (±1.8%) | 116.08 (±0.4%) |
| 122 San Mateo, California | 120 (±0.5%) |  | 4.94 (±5.4%) |  |  | 22.558 (±1.0%) | 120.95 (±0.3%) |
| 121 Hinds, Mississippi | 37619 (±169.8%) |  | 4.92 (±7.9%) |  |  | 97.391 (±14.9%) | 518.48 (±19.1%) |
| 119 Coconino, Arizona | 113 (±0.9%) |  | 5.86 (±5.3%) |  |  | 23.215 (±1.8%) | 122.46 (±0.5%) |
| 118 Carroll, Maryland | 120 (±0.5%) |  | 10.00 (±2.6%) |  |  | 20.642 (±1.2%) | 121.08 (±0.3%) |
| 116 Galveston, Texas | 9320 (±258.8%) |  | 5.76 (±13.3%) |  |  | 105.002 (±29.4%) | 511.83 (±39.4%) |
| 115 Anoka, Minnesota | 115 (±0.3%) |  | 4.63 (±3.4%) |  |  | 17.807 (±0.8%) | 138.55 (±0.1%) |
| 114 Clayton, Georgia | 119 (±2.3%) |  | 6.84 (±6.1%) |  |  | 31.077 (±2.5%) | 144.03 (±1.0%) |
| 113 Washtenaw, Michigan | 108 (±0.3%) |  | 7.16 (±2.5%) |  |  | 14.794 (±1.2%) | 112.21 (±0.2%) |
| 112 Howard, Maryland | 111 (±0.6%) |  | 4.76 (±4.0%) |  |  | 24.069 (±1.0%) | 138.31 (±0.2%) |
| 110 Trumbull, Ohio | 178 (±8.6%) |  | 10.88 (±5.0%) |  |  | 44.222 (±5.0%) | 178.48 (±3.9%) |
| 109 Kent, Delaware | 99 (±1.0%) |  | 6.61 (±3.3%) |  |  | 20.727 (±2.2%) | 129.75 (±0.5%) |
| 108 Hendricks, Indiana | 107 (±0.6%) |  | 8.13 (±2.5%) |  |  | 20.539 (±1.4%) | 124.57 (±0.3%) |
| 107 Osceola, Florida | 44634 (±333.7%) |  | 5.32 (±19.2%) |  |  | 95.298 (±27.1%) | 519.88 (±34.3%) |
| 106 Johnson, Kansas | 101 (±1.2%) |  | 5.93 (±9.4%) |  |  | 24.271 (±2.1%) | 123.07 (±0.6%) |
| 105 Hamilton, Indiana | 100 (±0.3%) |  | 8.21 (±4.1%) |  |  | 13.730 (±1.3%) | 110.26 (±0.2%) |
| 104 New London, Connecticut | 104 (±0.3%) |  | 8.41 (±1.6%) |  |  | 16.106 (±1.0%) | 122.88 (±0.2%) |
| 102 Wyandotte, Kansas | 87 (±0.9%) |  | 5.39 (±6.4%) |  |  | 16.822 (±2.7%) | 108.74 (±0.6%) |
| 100 Lafayette, Louisiana | 6572 (±116.7%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 99.486 (±13.9%) | 483.44 (±18.4%) |
| 98 Niagara, New York | 99 (±0.5%) |  | 7.36 (±2.5%) |  |  | 20.638 (±1.1%) | 130.46 (±0.2%) |
| 97 York, Pennsylvania | 228 (±6.8%) |  | 7.63 (±4.0%) |  |  | 44.874 (±2.8%) | 212.53 (±2.1%) |
| 96 Charlotte, Florida | 85 (±0.7%) |  | 8.38 (±8.6%) |  |  | 18.372 (±1.6%) | 128.95 (±0.3%) |
| 95 Richmond, Georgia | 199 (±7.3%) |  | 8.70 (±7.7%) |  |  | 45.413 (±3.2%) | 206.41 (±2.5%) |
| 94 Neshoba, Mississippi | 95 (±0.9%) |  | 9.15 (±3.1%) |  |  | 23.626 (±1.4%) | 150.81 (±0.3%) |
| 93 Ventura, California | 254 (±17.5%) |  | 4.26 (±10.1%) |  |  | 56.554 (±6.2%) | 232.98 (±6.4%) |
| 92 St. John the Baptist, Louisiana | 86 (±0.4%) |  | 10.24 (±2.7%) |  |  | 13.232 (±1.8%) | 100.08 (±0.3%) |
| 91 Charles, Maryland | 89 (±0.4%) |  | 7.32 (±3.5%) |  |  | 16.771 (±1.3%) | 117.83 (±0.3%) |
| 88 Linn, Iowa | 85 (±0.3%) |  | 7.19 (±3.3%) |  |  | 15.270 (±1.1%) | 114.02 (±0.2%) |
| 87 Pulaski, Arkansas | 109 (±2.2%) |  | 5.07 (±7.0%) |  |  | 34.978 (±1.8%) | 160.05 (±0.9%) |
| 86 Elkhart, Indiana | 158 (±8.3%) |  | 2.55 (±8.9%) |  |  | 42.381 (±4.2%) | 194.66 (±2.9%) |
| 83 St. Joseph, Indiana | 91 (±1.6%) |  | 4.95 (±4.1%) |  |  | 28.129 (±2.0%) | 145.66 (±0.6%) |
| 80 Durham, North Carolina | 78 (±1.2%) |  | 2.68 (±7.6%) |  |  | 22.436 (±2.3%) | 132.04 (±0.5%) |
| 79 Tallapoosa, Alabama | 73 (±0.8%) |  | 13.87 (±3.2%) |  |  | 14.442 (±2.7%) | 122.81 (±0.4%) |
| 78 Madison, Illinois | 72 (±0.4%) |  | 7.61 (±4.7%) |  |  | 16.437 (±1.2%) | 126.11 (±0.2%) |
| 76 Boulder, Colorado | 73 (±0.3%) |  | 6.06 (±3.0%) |  |  | 14.774 (±1.1%) | 114.83 (±0.2%) |
| 74 Merced, California | 564672 (±534.9%) |  | 1.00 (±70.1%) |  |  | 88.126 (±28.9%) | 535.70 (±35.3%) |
| 73 Santa Barbara, California | 4610 (±224.4%) |  | 3.37 (±10.7%) |  |  | 88.902 (±26.1%) | 448.77 (±32.8%) |
| 72 Troup, Georgia | 199 (±11.7%) |  | 1.89 (±60.5%) |  |  | 44.810 (±4.2%) | 226.32 (±3.1%) |
| 71 Yavapai, Arizona | 82 (±5.9%) |  | 5.79 (±20.0%) |  |  | 16.336 (±6.7%) | 198.07 (±0.6%) |
| 70 Michigan Department of Corrections (MDOC), Michigan | 68 (±0.3%) |  | 1.63 (±2.5%) |  |  | 12.776 (±1.2%) | 113.72 (±0.2%) |
| 69 Kankakee, Illinois | 70 (±0.7%) |  | 6.02 (±7.2%) |  |  | 21.446 (±1.4%) | 125.67 (±0.3%) |
| 68 Leflore, Mississippi | 66 (±1.2%) |  | 11.02 (±10.2%) |  |  | 25.856 (±1.8%) | 138.18 (±0.5%) |
| 67 San Francisco, California | 59 (±1.4%) |  | 2.68 (±6.0%) |  |  | 24.536 (±2.8%) | 116.55 (±0.8%) |
| 66 Tolland, Connecticut | 65 (±0.2%) |  | 7.57 (±2.1%) |  |  | 16.815 (±0.7%) | 108.85 (±0.1%) |
| 65 Walker, Alabama | 81 (±3.3%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 20.417 (±3.3%) | 189.89 (±0.5%) |
| 64 Butler, Ohio | 66 (±1.8%) |  | 3.51 (±7.0%) |  |  | 26.985 (±2.3%) | 149.80 (±0.7%) |
| 62 Kings, California | 64 (±2.4%) |  | 3.03 (±10.8%) |  |  | 20.929 (±2.8%) | 179.85 (±0.4%) |
| 61 Franklin, Massachusetts | 57 (±0.8%) |  | 16.71 (±1.1%) |  |  | 19.282 (±2.3%) | 105.39 (±0.6%) |
| 60 Alexandria, Virginia | 58 (±0.8%) |  | 3.11 (±5.9%) |  |  | 19.108 (±2.0%) | 123.84 (±0.4%) |
| 59 Douglas, Colorado | 56 (±0.7%) |  | 7.27 (±3.9%) |  |  | 19.625 (±1.8%) | 118.57 (±0.4%) |
| 58 Washington, Louisiana | 56 (±1.0%) |  | 8.90 (±5.0%) |  |  | 22.444 (±1.9%) | 124.40 (±0.5%) |
| 57 Ottawa, Michigan | 55 (±0.6%) |  | 4.53 (±4.0%) |  |  | 18.728 (±1.6%) | 126.57 (±0.3%) |
| 56 Cochise, Arizona | 93 (±8.0%) |  | 2.08 (±39.1%) |  |  | 26.027 (±4.7%) | 204.22 (±1.3%) |
| 55 Monroe, Mississippi | 93 (±15.9%) |  | 14.25 (±4.0%) |  |  | 45.887 (±8.9%) | 183.17 (±7.1%) |
| 54 Santa Cruz, Arizona | 72 (±5.2%) |  | 2.05 (±9.1%) |  |  | 24.619 (±4.4%) | 188.69 (±0.9%) |
| 53 Washington, Arkansas | 64 (±4.1%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 26.991 (±3.6%) | 178.64 (±1.0%) |
| 52 Bay, Florida | 15897 (±345.4%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 54.248 (±30.1%) | 356.42 (±27.6%) |
| 51 Sonoma, California | 19215 (±174.8%) |  | 3.71 (±13.6%) |  |  | 76.382 (±14.6%) | 441.37 (±16.7%) |
| 50 Habersham, Georgia | 53 (±1.8%) |  | 7.46 (±2.9%) |  |  | 27.023 (±2.3%) | 147.24 (±0.6%) |
| 49 Okaloosa, Florida | 137656 (±535.8%) |  | 3.52 (±58.7%) |  |  | 93.820 (±32.5%) | 549.23 (±40.6%) |
| 48 Muscatine, Iowa | 46 (±0.4%) |  | 7.73 (±1.8%) |  |  | 13.877 (±1.6%) | 125.19 (±0.2%) |
| 47 Lee, Alabama | 38 (±0.9%) |  | 5.76 (±5.3%) |  |  | 14.782 (±3.2%) | 108.41 (±0.6%) |
| 46 Morgan, Colorado | 47 (±0.6%) |  | 7.28 (±1.6%) |  |  | 13.803 (±2.0%) | 123.40 (±0.3%) |
| 45 Yolo, California | 42 (±5.6%) |  | 4.96 (±52.3%) |  |  | 30.861 (±7.0%) | 132.07 (±2.8%) |
| 44 Sumter, Florida | 1697 (±494.9%) |  | 10.56 (±5.2%) |  |  | 122.836 (±66.1%) | 551.62 (±94.7%) |
| 43 Benton, Arkansas | 67 (±7.5%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 29.722 (±4.8%) | 195.60 (±1.6%) |
| 42 Baldwin, Georgia | 38 (±0.8%) |  | 8.79 (±4.2%) |  |  | 19.268 (±1.9%) | 133.62 (±0.3%) |
| 41 Solano, California | 41 (±3.7%) |  | 4.01 (±8.9%) |  |  | 28.423 (±4.5%) | 145.71 (±1.5%) |
| 40 Jefferson, Arkansas | 36 (±2.2%) |  | 4.55 (±7.3%) |  |  | 23.606 (±4.6%) | 123.19 (±1.1%) |
| 39 St. Johns, Florida | 17050 (±294.1%) |  | 9.75 (±6.7%) |  |  | 92.824 (±23.6%) | 511.24 (±29.5%) |
| 38 Chambers, Alabama | 37 (±3.0%) |  | 8.60 (±3.9%) |  |  | 28.937 (±5.3%) | 114.04 (±1.7%) |
| 37 Shelby, Alabama | 35 (±4.3%) |  | 4.92 (±6.7%) |  |  | 32.592 (±5.4%) | 129.96 (±2.2%) |
| 36 Butler, Alabama | 35 (±1.1%) |  | 6.54 (±3.6%) |  |  | 19.733 (±2.4%) | 145.66 (±0.4%) |
| 35 Dallas, Iowa | 34 (±0.9%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 16.815 (±2.4%) | 140.85 (±0.3%) |
| 34 Pueblo, Colorado | 40 (±1.7%) |  | 7.80 (±2.9%) |  |  | 29.670 (±2.0%) | 142.83 (±0.7%) |
| 33 Broomfield, Colorado | 31 (±0.5%) |  | 10.68 (±2.6%) |  |  | 14.435 (±1.9%) | 123.01 (±0.3%) |
| 32 Twin Falls, Idaho | 29 (±1.7%) |  | 5.41 (±5.7%) |  |  | 21.755 (±3.7%) | 122.66 (±0.9%) |
| 31 Fayette, Georgia | 38 (±7.8%) |  | 9.71 (±5.1%) |  |  | 42.818 (±5.5%) | 159.49 (±4.2%) |
| 30 Grant, Indiana | 28 (±0.7%) |  | 10.24 (±4.1%) |  |  | 17.628 (±2.0%) | 122.75 (±0.4%) |
| 29 Dale, Alabama | 29 (±6.1%) |  | 5.25 (±9.0%) |  |  | 12.125 (±8.1%) | 205.54 (±0.4%) |
| 28 Putnam, Florida | 106770 (±675.8%) |  | 7.49 (±10.2%) |  |  | 111.538 (±39.6%) | 634.93 (±52.3%) |
| 27 Columbia, Georgia | 6116 (±284.4%) |  | 6.43 (±6.2%) |  |  | 111.784 (±26.1%) | 571.63 (±35.1%) |
| 26 Hale, Alabama | 26 (±1.2%) |  | 5.91 (±6.6%) |  |  | 19.220 (±2.3%) | 155.90 (±0.3%) |
| 25 LaSalle, Illinois | 19 (±1.3%) |  | 8.80 (±4.4%) |  |  | 15.740 (±3.9%) | 136.94 (±0.5%) |
| 24 Lowndes, Alabama | 27 (±2.4%) |  | 4.64 (±5.7%) |  |  | 25.466 (±3.3%) | 148.81 (±0.8%) |
| 23 Gordon, Georgia | 20 (±1.3%) |  | 6.23 (±7.9%) |  |  | 18.128 (±3.8%) | 112.10 (±0.9%) |
| 22 Autauga, Alabama | 49 (±14.8%) |  | 1.69 (±20.3%) |  |  | 41.139 (±6.7%) | 205.66 (±4.4%) |
| 21 Sebastian, Arkansas | 87 (±26.7%) |  | 2.10 (±13.7%) |  |  | 39.759 (±7.6%) | 243.78 (±4.7%) |
| 20 Morgan, Alabama | 93 (±28.4%) |  | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 40.327 (±7.6%) | 248.06 (±4.8%) |
| 19 Union, Arkansas | 16 (±1.6%) |  | 5.47 (±7.8%) |  |  | 19.261 (±3.7%) | 144.60 (±0.5%) |
| 18 West Feliciana, Louisiana | 15 (±0.9%) |  | 7.43 (±3.9%) |  |  | 15.668 (±2.7%) | 129.70 (±0.4%) |
| 17 Yell, Arkansas | 23 (±12.1%) |  | 3.18 (±10.1%) |  |  | 23.747 (±8.9%) | 196.87 (±1.9%) |
For countries in this list, the number of dead people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.