Labor am Elm

Elm Laboratory

Consulting and Research

Jens Röder

12 minutes read

with Advanced Gompertz Function

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 500 , between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 9999, between 10000 and 49999, between 50000 and 99999, above 100000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Thu Apr 15 08:29:28 UTC 2021

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Ncurrent
location
Nmax (err) cumulative_inf. infected_daily T2 (err) dturning_point (err)
333
Adams, Idaho
fiterr (±err) 175.959 (±112.6%) 1013.55 (±147.8%)
269
Adams, North Dakota
223 (±1.4%) 30.515 (±1.8%) 300.66 (±0.2%)
2266
Adams, Ohio
fiterr (±err) 204.131 (±126.1%) 1255.49 (±174.2%)
679
Aleutians West, Alaska
133 (±3.3%) 35.610 (±6.9%) 207.42 (±1.6%)
905
Allendale, South Carolina
1959 (±145.2%) 119.696 (±48.1%) 419.40 (±66.6%)
704
Anasco, Puerto Rico
2194496 (±198.0%) 167.399 (±11.6%) 966.71 (±15.0%)
2461
Anson, North Carolina
fiterr (±err) 197.918 (±131.0%) 877.88 (±190.5%)
938
Arenac, Michigan
fiterr (±err) 235.347 (±121.8%) 1466.63 (±175.1%)
445
Atchison, Missouri
fiterr (±err) 219.717 (±134.0%) 1233.97 (±186.0%)
2771
Audrain, Missouri
1347072 (±75.3%) 175.876 (±5.6%) 951.61 (±7.4%)
463
Aurora, South Dakota
fiterr (±err) 249.696 (±90.1%) 1460.49 (±128.3%)
385
Ballard, Kentucky
fiterr (±err) 272.787 (±91.9%) 1644.90 (±133.7%)
1338
Bandera, Texas
fiterr (±err) 223.433 (±137.8%) 1221.14 (±192.0%)
35
Banner, Nebraska
2972 (±156.6%) 106.636 (±16.6%) 616.80 (±17.4%)
259
Bath, Virginia
fiterr (±err) 186.870 (±9.3%) 1176.84 (±12.6%)
4085
Bedford, Pennsylvania
fiterr (±err) 188.909 (±128.2%) 1181.78 (±174.6%)
1047
Benson, North Dakota
1661 (±3.0%) 58.984 (±1.6%) 312.25 (±0.9%)
5230
Benton, Minnesota
fiterr (±err) 243.682 (±134.5%) 1370.76 (±190.3%)
554
Big Stone, Minnesota
fiterr (±err) 271.258 (±122.5%) 1642.07 (±178.6%)
334
Boise, Idaho
fiterr (±err) 182.945 (±22.7%) 980.41 (±30.1%)
3760
Boone, Arkansas
fiterr (±err) 258.535 (±158.1%) fiterr (±err)
4232
Branch, Michigan
fiterr (±err) 262.173 (±110.6%) 1552.71 (±159.2%)
1585
Brantley, Georgia
fiterr (±err) 156.480 (±56.2%) 724.44 (±75.5%)
976
Brewster, Texas
fiterr (±err) 190.648 (±24.9%) 1050.32 (±33.4%)
2095
Brooke, West Virginia
fiterr (±err) 142.942 (±92.2%) 853.81 (±112.5%)
1373
Brooks, Georgia
fiterr (±err) 192.932 (±102.9%) 797.56 (±153.9%)
218
Brown, Nebraska
295 (±3.2%) 41.527 (±2.4%) 312.07 (±0.6%)
3846
Brown, Ohio
fiterr (±err) 196.680 (±153.8%) fiterr (±err)
702
Brule, South Dakota
894 (±8.7%) 42.067 (±6.9%) 304.58 (±1.7%)
872
Buena Vista, Virginia
fiterr (±err) 202.091 (±125.1%) 1146.58 (±170.4%)
8562
Cabell, West Virginia
fiterr (±err) 212.711 (±138.0%) 1216.44 (±190.1%)
1330
Calhoun, Iowa
1680 (±5.9%) 38.733 (±4.8%) 311.00 (±1.0%)
267
Calhoun, West Virginia
78727 (±134.0%) 146.446 (±10.4%) 818.66 (±12.9%)
131
Campbell, South Dakota
113 (±0.6%) 25.802 (±1.2%) 280.00 (±0.1%)
1545
Canovanas, Puerto Rico
1986 (±4.3%) 68.763 (±1.9%) 332.74 (±1.4%)
856
Carbon, Montana
1642 (±54.7%) 58.968 (±23.7%) 345.20 (±12.4%)
3246
Carlton, Minnesota
fiterr (±err) 195.830 (±96.1%) 1181.42 (±130.6%)
6404
Carter, Tennessee
fiterr (±err) 170.656 (±90.3%) 839.22 (±121.8%)
8785
Chaves, New Mexico
fiterr (±err) 230.031 (±120.0%) 1341.36 (±168.4%)
496
Chouteau, Montana
456 (±2.1%) 34.096 (±1.9%) 314.21 (±0.3%)
677
Ciales, Puerto Rico
2553 (±16.7%) 94.512 (±4.2%) 446.26 (±4.2%)
248
Clark, Kansas
fiterr (±err) 308.794 (±29.0%) 1855.31 (±42.8%)
239
Clay, Georgia
fiterr (±err) 166.337 (±68.1%) 586.08 (±107.5%)
3287
Clinton, Pennsylvania
fiterr (±err) 178.745 (±160.8%) fiterr (±err)
975
Cloud, Kansas
1147 (±22.9%) 33.863 (±19.1%) 321.14 (±2.9%)
689
Coal, Oklahoma
fiterr (±err) 204.044 (±15.5%) 1228.11 (±21.2%)
758
Coamo, Puerto Rico
20624 (±29.8%) 117.920 (±3.8%) 624.14 (±4.2%)
738
Coleman, Texas
3124 (±27.0%) 87.786 (±5.7%) 463.38 (±5.2%)
9091
Cole, Missouri
13889 (±54.5%) 52.790 (±29.3%) 325.46 (±12.3%)
316
Collingsworth, Texas
fiterr (±err) 118.350 (±31.9%) 742.96 (±35.7%)
3650
Cooke, Texas
fiterr (±err) 191.415 (±74.5%) 1106.61 (±100.0%)
1914
Cooper, Missouri
fiterr (±err) 156.301 (±68.9%) 769.92 (±90.4%)
1947
Coos, Oregon
fiterr (±err) 242.322 (±65.3%) 1445.10 (±92.8%)
205
Costilla, Colorado
fiterr (±err) 315.025 (±176.3%) fiterr (±err)
655
Crawford, Georgia
fiterr (±err) 176.116 (±83.4%) 780.77 (±118.1%)
2556
Crawford, Missouri
fiterr (±err) 134.304 (±68.5%) 674.93 (±84.0%)
32
Culebra, Puerto Rico
18 (±0.9%) 17.004 (±4.3%) 198.51 (±0.4%)
9481
Cullman, Alabama
fiterr (±err) fiterr (±err)fiterr (±err)
1176
Custer, Montana
1565 (±5.5%) 43.369 (±3.4%) 324.41 (±0.9%)
1258
Dallas, Missouri
1093 (±33.7%) 51.511 (±21.6%) 306.65 (±8.5%)
197
Daniels, Montana
161 (±1.8%) 27.413 (±2.3%) 312.17 (±0.2%)
799
Davis, Iowa
36923 (±66.2%) 122.035 (±8.1%) 641.63 (±9.4%)
1102
Dawson, Montana
1660 (±4.2%) 43.723 (±2.3%) 333.31 (±0.7%)
3984
Defiance, Ohio
fiterr (±err) 226.082 (±158.1%) fiterr (±err)
2608
Delta, Colorado
fiterr (±err) 155.531 (±181.0%) fiterr (±err)
505
Deuel, South Dakota
712 (±43.1%) 52.125 (±24.0%) 322.51 (±9.8%)
1721
Dickinson, Kansas
6749 (±8.3%) 75.308 (±2.1%) 421.95 (±1.6%)
2551
Dickinson, Michigan
2609 (±15.4%) 31.864 (±16.4%) 309.76 (±2.1%)
225
Dillingham, Alaska
2808 (±72.7%) 125.170 (±11.3%) 604.97 (±13.5%)
964
Doniphan, Kansas
fiterr (±err) 141.151 (±80.0%) 727.12 (±99.4%)
450
Douglas, South Dakota
560 (±1.8%) 46.706 (±1.2%) 310.05 (±0.4%)
1123
East Carroll, Louisiana
fiterr (±err) 169.780 (±71.7%) 622.51 (±111.2%)
465
Echols, Georgia
328 (±7.0%) 52.636 (±11.3%) 152.42 (±6.3%)
1656
Edgar, Illinois
2484 (±7.7%) 42.118 (±4.1%) 339.71 (±1.1%)
259
Edwards, Kansas
1176 (±15.1%) 74.821 (±4.1%) 408.73 (±3.1%)
179
Elk, Kansas
388 (±10.3%) 55.705 (±3.2%) 382.61 (±1.6%)
232
Essex, Vermont
fiterr (±err) 167.284 (±151.3%) 1034.35 (±197.3%)
279
Fallon, Montana
289 (±1.3%) 22.818 (±2.3%) 308.89 (±0.1%)
1509
Fillmore, Minnesota
fiterr (±err) 242.238 (±138.8%) 1475.30 (±198.7%)
293
Fisher, Texas
625 (±8.1%) 76.072 (±2.9%) 368.82 (±2.3%)
1681
Ford, Illinois
3197 (±92.6%) 51.640 (±36.3%) 359.11 (±15.2%)
1303
Franklin, Florida
828 (±4.7%) 28.388 (±11.9%) 223.32 (±1.8%)
710
Franklin, Texas
fiterr (±err) 189.349 (±107.2%) 878.55 (±151.6%)
1849
Freestone, Texas
1270 (±5.1%) 59.005 (±3.3%) 286.66 (±1.8%)
112
Garden, Nebraska
fiterr (±err) 213.596 (±36.1%) 1275.09 (±49.9%)
78
Garfield, Montana
fiterr (±err) 266.242 (±44.1%) 1603.29 (±63.7%)
1740
Gem, Idaho
fiterr (±err) 211.029 (±97.0%) 1181.14 (±133.6%)
55
Gilliam, Oregon
fiterr (±err) 251.266 (±18.0%) 1521.06 (±25.8%)
933
Glades, Florida
1455 (±40.2%) 88.199 (±21.6%) 286.65 (±24.8%)
1342
Gogebic, Michigan
fiterr (±err) 252.063 (±110.2%) 1492.00 (±157.6%)
256
Golden Valley, North Dakota
252 (±2.2%) 43.764 (±1.9%) 291.42 (±0.5%)
181
Gosper, Nebraska
fiterr (±err) 235.064 (±94.3%) 1295.58 (±132.6%)
572
Graham, North Carolina
360 (±1.5%) 38.102 (±1.9%) 263.11 (±0.4%)
1663
Grant, New Mexico
fiterr (±err) 184.919 (±137.7%) 1058.70 (±183.3%)
104
Greeley, Kansas
fiterr (±err) 224.052 (±50.5%) 1342.78 (±70.6%)
1779
Gurabo, Puerto Rico
3832 (±6.1%) 77.559 (±1.9%) 394.80 (±1.5%)
262
Haakon, South Dakota
376 (±3.7%) 46.243 (±2.2%) 326.25 (±0.7%)
1602
Hamilton, Florida
1521 (±16.7%) 69.406 (±14.0%) 220.23 (±11.8%)
760
Hamilton, Texas
fiterr (±err) 140.441 (±53.0%) 670.39 (±67.6%)
1872
Hampton, South Carolina
fiterr (±err) 210.946 (±162.5%) fiterr (±err)
1714
Hancock, Illinois
4132 (±65.7%) 63.224 (±22.7%) 371.81 (±13.4%)
538
Hancock, Tennessee
fiterr (±err) 183.278 (±26.9%) 956.51 (±36.2%)
356
Hand, South Dakota
fiterr (±err) 234.312 (±32.5%) 1429.49 (±46.2%)
94
Harding, South Dakota
87 (±1.4%) 22.213 (±3.0%) 294.84 (±0.2%)
218
Harlan, Nebraska
256 (±2.3%) 39.903 (±1.7%) 316.21 (±0.4%)
2639
Hawaii, Hawaii
fiterr (±err) 222.218 (±135.9%) 1037.25 (±198.1%)
2019
Henry, Missouri
fiterr (±err) 294.187 (±181.0%) fiterr (±err)
324
Hettinger, North Dakota
385 (±2.6%) 43.641 (±2.0%) 304.57 (±0.5%)
646
Hickory, Missouri
591 (±2.8%) 45.117 (±2.2%) 298.79 (±0.6%)
254
Hitchcock, Nebraska
319 (±3.1%) 43.905 (±1.6%) 338.00 (±0.5%)
2780
Hockley, Texas
fiterr (±err) 178.695 (±93.5%) 890.66 (±127.1%)
839
Holt, Nebraska
fiterr (±err) 212.637 (±28.4%) 1267.26 (±39.3%)
53
Hooker, Nebraska
62 (±3.2%) 38.860 (±3.1%) 296.23 (±0.6%)
3041
Hopkins, Texas
5877 (±94.2%) 61.811 (±36.7%) 356.96 (±20.9%)
1079
Houston, Tennessee
1042 (±34.4%) 48.186 (±25.6%) 296.18 (±8.7%)
1644
Howard, Arkansas
fiterr (±err) 190.977 (±103.6%) 850.10 (±149.4%)
3751
Huntington, Indiana
fiterr (±err) 202.160 (±146.4%) fiterr (±err)
875
Hutchinson, South Dakota
1121 (±36.3%) 43.997 (±23.5%) 320.48 (±6.6%)
3211
Jackson, Arkansas
12743 (±8.9%) 67.633 (±2.5%) 398.31 (±1.7%)
57
Jackson, Colorado
fiterr (±err) 218.976 (±52.1%) 1187.94 (±72.0%)
2176
Jackson, Iowa
fiterr (±err) 240.046 (±90.6%) 1413.76 (±128.3%)
605
Jack, Texas
fiterr (±err) 125.347 (±36.7%) 595.15 (±44.5%)
189
Jeff Davis, Texas
40725 (±189.0%) 128.946 (±16.1%) 732.83 (±18.8%)
2552
Jerome, Idaho
fiterr (±err) 167.911 (±53.5%) 794.58 (±72.8%)
1879
Johnson, Kentucky
4428 (±131.3%) 67.701 (±39.7%) 389.70 (±26.2%)
974
Juana Diaz, Puerto Rico
117745 (±85.1%) 156.382 (±7.9%) 820.74 (±10.2%)
2031
Kingfisher, Oklahoma
fiterr (±err) 147.351 (±67.3%) 724.41 (±86.4%)
238
Kiowa, Kansas
209 (±3.5%) 45.481 (±2.5%) 310.49 (±0.7%)
3335
Knox, Kentucky
7854 (±73.4%) 88.501 (±19.8%) 421.61 (±18.9%)
1094
Kodiak Island, Alaska
fiterr (±err) 171.703 (±20.3%) 1104.83 (±27.2%)
723
Lake, Colorado
fiterr (±err) 315.645 (±198.6%) fiterr (±err)
2993
Latah, Idaho
3605 (±39.4%) 50.834 (±23.1%) 318.43 (±8.9%)
1381
Lawrence, Kentucky
fiterr (±err) 175.288 (±154.3%) fiterr (±err)
2669
Le Sueur, Minnesota
fiterr (±err) 304.175 (±152.6%) fiterr (±err)
1587
Lincoln, Montana
fiterr (±err) 202.424 (±121.0%) 1167.83 (±165.0%)
1282
Lincoln, Oregon
fiterr (±err) 205.064 (±135.9%) fiterr (±err)
1224
Little River, Arkansas
1043 (±3.1%) 56.360 (±2.2%) 278.25 (±1.1%)
553
Luquillo, Puerto Rico
667 (±5.6%) 73.142 (±2.3%) 344.99 (±1.7%)
559
Mackinac, Michigan
fiterr (±err) 253.498 (±102.1%) 1523.89 (±146.8%)
1593
Macon, Missouri
fiterr (±err) 76.967 (±56.0%) 426.63 (±44.0%)
1527
Madison, Iowa
fiterr (±err) 227.134 (±114.4%) 1253.24 (±160.0%)
950
Major, Oklahoma
2277 (±91.6%) 59.871 (±31.6%) 371.38 (±17.2%)
1048
Marion, Kansas
fiterr (±err) 235.540 (±119.7%) 1437.54 (±170.5%)
965
Marshall, Illinois
fiterr (±err) 247.854 (±153.4%) fiterr (±err)
364
Marshall, South Dakota
1660 (±191.8%) 73.919 (±46.5%) 423.33 (±34.6%)
1663
Mason, Michigan
fiterr (±err) 203.996 (±120.4%) 1155.75 (±164.4%)
3677
Matagorda, Texas
fiterr (±err) fiterr (±err)fiterr (±err)
10675
Matanuska-Susitna, Alaska
fiterr (±err) 67.141 (±67.4%) 412.39 (±44.3%)
1621
Mayaguez, Puerto Rico
4247 (±19.0%) 96.876 (±5.2%) 429.87 (±5.5%)
6275
McCracken, Kentucky
fiterr (±err) 252.981 (±146.1%) fiterr (±err)
1934
McCreary, Kentucky
fiterr (±err) 190.656 (±166.0%) fiterr (±err)
2365
McDonald, Missouri
fiterr (±err) 158.089 (±76.7%) 563.02 (±118.8%)
1219
McKenzie, North Dakota
1468 (±22.3%) 45.352 (±16.8%) 301.79 (±4.9%)
864
McLean, Kentucky
fiterr (±err) 218.737 (±124.7%) 1228.88 (±173.0%)
83
McMullen, Texas
fiterr (±err) 277.223 (±52.8%) 1605.31 (±75.8%)
30
McPherson, Nebraska
fiterr (±err) 304.412 (±30.1%) 1858.22 (±44.7%)
243
McPherson, South Dakota
344 (±5.7%) 51.368 (±3.0%) 331.05 (±1.2%)
1100
Mercer, North Dakota
1189 (±14.6%) 34.222 (±16.2%) 298.12 (±2.4%)
747
Merrick, Nebraska
fiterr (±err) 184.209 (±73.3%) 1034.69 (±97.6%)
561
Mitchell, Kansas
fiterr (±err) 192.994 (±152.8%) fiterr (±err)
2067
Montague, Texas
fiterr (±err) 105.805 (±88.6%) 585.79 (±92.7%)
3634
Montgomery, Illinois
fiterr (±err) 180.612 (±134.2%) 889.71 (±183.5%)
633
Moody, South Dakota
938 (±4.3%) 50.330 (±2.4%) 323.88 (±0.9%)
169
Mora, New Mexico
fiterr (±err) 134.656 (±16.3%) 839.75 (±19.5%)
402
Nance, Nebraska
504 (±3.3%) 38.002 (±2.5%) 316.84 (±0.5%)
465
Nelson, North Dakota
538 (±2.5%) 38.899 (±2.2%) 303.66 (±0.4%)
655
Nemaha, Nebraska
fiterr (±err) 187.667 (±107.5%) 923.85 (±148.6%)
345
Nome, Alaska
644 (±4.7%) 64.428 (±2.0%) 344.30 (±1.2%)
1954
O’Brien, Iowa
fiterr (±err) 166.347 (±58.2%) 871.27 (±76.3%)
1106
Ochiltree, Texas
187788 (±93.5%) 141.445 (±8.8%) 760.59 (±10.8%)
436
Ontonagon, Michigan
348 (±10.9%) 28.682 (±15.2%) 300.47 (±1.5%)
641
Orange, Vermont
fiterr (±err) 168.740 (±195.0%) fiterr (±err)
1635
Osage, Missouri
1505 (±25.2%) 38.715 (±22.0%) 305.17 (±4.4%)
1436
Parke, Indiana
fiterr (±err) 93.557 (±52.4%) 531.64 (±49.8%)
295
Patillas, Puerto Rico
14859 (±57.0%) 133.161 (±6.3%) 697.65 (±7.6%)
476
Penuelas, Puerto Rico
fiterr (±err) 190.635 (±19.5%) 1127.52 (±26.2%)
3128
Perry, Illinois
fiterr (±err) 185.573 (±61.2%) 1085.17 (±81.6%)
2878
Perry, Ohio
fiterr (±err) 205.529 (±132.9%) 1213.74 (±182.2%)
353
Phillips, Colorado
fiterr (±err) 241.272 (±117.0%) 1479.41 (±167.8%)
712
Phillips, Kansas
2733 (±59.3%) 75.829 (±16.4%) 407.19 (±12.7%)
401
Piscataquis, Maine
fiterr (±err) 175.272 (±16.0%) 1120.20 (±21.5%)
5053
Pontotoc, Oklahoma
fiterr (±err) 75.521 (±66.6%) 422.94 (±51.1%)
304
Pope, Illinois
264826 (±132.2%) 146.310 (±9.1%) 841.98 (±11.2%)
888
Prairie, Arkansas
fiterr (±err) 154.488 (±72.4%) 740.78 (±95.5%)
86
Prince of Wales-Hyder, Alaska
202 (±37.6%) 82.512 (±13.2%) 370.55 (±12.0%)
1128
Pulaski, Indiana
fiterr (±err) 223.803 (±88.3%) 1368.79 (±124.5%)
2502
Pulaski, Virginia
fiterr (±err) 175.258 (±129.1%) 1027.09 (±169.4%)
439
Putnam, Illinois
660 (±6.5%) 52.542 (±3.1%) 338.95 (±1.3%)
785
Rains, Texas
fiterr (±err) 139.697 (±57.4%) 769.36 (±69.7%)
298
Rawlins, Kansas
312 (±2.9%) 38.105 (±2.6%) 304.50 (±0.5%)
1960
Ray, Missouri
fiterr (±err) 171.657 (±124.1%) 857.54 (±166.7%)
377
Reagan, Texas
30552 (±148.2%) 135.905 (±17.0%) 702.31 (±20.6%)
382
Red Lake, Minnesota
1920 (±66.0%) 74.302 (±16.2%) 422.25 (±12.1%)
675
Red River, Texas
12255 (±106.9%) 163.592 (±15.5%) 740.09 (±21.3%)
317
Renville, North Dakota
426 (±4.1%) 44.564 (±2.8%) 313.63 (±0.8%)
1077
Ripley, Missouri
fiterr (±err) 223.926 (±118.9%) 1246.58 (±165.7%)
1336
Roberts, South Dakota
fiterr (±err) 140.544 (±65.9%) 712.50 (±82.2%)
2134
Rolette, North Dakota
2487 (±21.9%) 34.736 (±18.8%) 317.13 (±3.0%)
656
Rooks, Kansas
1022 (±45.0%) 55.297 (±20.3%) 342.87 (±9.4%)
1875
Roosevelt, New Mexico
fiterr (±err) 254.530 (±114.8%) 1500.76 (±164.3%)
613
Sabine, Texas
105000 (±136.9%) 156.739 (±12.1%) 832.98 (±15.5%)
618
Sanders, Montana
23135 (±52.1%) 103.930 (±6.5%) 583.93 (±6.7%)
46
San Juan, Colorado
fiterr (±err) 231.234 (±18.9%) 1387.67 (±26.7%)
676
Searcy, Arkansas
fiterr (±err) 265.574 (±159.4%) fiterr (±err)
2783
Sevier, Arkansas
fiterr (±err) 200.012 (±113.1%) 785.22 (±175.5%)
590
Shelby, Missouri
fiterr (±err) fiterr (±err)fiterr (±err)
421
Sheridan, Montana
400 (±1.3%) 26.696 (±1.7%) 312.84 (±0.1%)
500
Sheridan, Nebraska
fiterr (±err) 214.976 (±24.8%) 1297.45 (±34.5%)
115
Sheridan, North Dakota
113 (±2.6%) 33.754 (±2.9%) 297.73 (±0.4%)
3093
Sheridan, Wyoming
fiterr (±err) 243.841 (±131.4%) 1462.44 (±187.5%)
344
Sitka, Alaska
fiterr (±err) 236.832 (±17.2%) 1418.22 (±24.4%)
357
Stanton, Nebraska
fiterr (±err) 199.391 (±67.2%) 1170.91 (±91.4%)
3526
Steele, Minnesota
fiterr (±err) 304.215 (±168.3%) fiterr (±err)
1820
Ste. Genevieve, Missouri
2674 (±50.4%) 49.342 (±26.2%) 333.66 (±9.7%)
715
Stillwater, Montana
751 (±17.1%) 40.394 (±13.3%) 311.11 (±3.0%)
1793
Stone, Mississippi
fiterr (±err) 156.167 (±63.6%) 745.37 (±84.3%)
862
Sullivan, Missouri
8754 (±42.3%) 121.398 (±7.8%) 558.26 (±9.4%)
366
Sullivan, Pennsylvania
fiterr (±err) 127.820 (±173.8%) fiterr (±err)
2119
Sumner, Kansas
fiterr (±err) 111.833 (±84.6%) 591.65 (±92.7%)
978
Swift, Minnesota
fiterr (±err) 188.222 (±62.4%) 1094.71 (±83.5%)
2969
Taylor, Kentucky
fiterr (±err) 204.833 (±133.7%) 1162.69 (±182.7%)
80
Terrell, Texas
129 (±10.1%) 37.380 (±4.8%) 350.63 (±1.1%)
2735
Tioga, Pennsylvania
fiterr (±err) 168.162 (±142.8%) 1053.13 (±187.4%)
3910
TriCounty, Utah
103084 (±61.3%) 100.783 (±8.1%) 565.93 (±8.1%)
398
Trinity, California
383 (±4.0%) 31.278 (±3.1%) 330.93 (±0.4%)
695
Union, Indiana
fiterr (±err) 241.490 (±108.9%) 1471.90 (±155.8%)
119
Vieques, Puerto Rico
fiterr (±err) 189.869 (±64.5%) 1065.51 (±86.2%)
1721
Warren, Illinois
fiterr (±err) 196.396 (±38.3%) 1087.56 (±51.9%)
4284
Warren, Mississippi
fiterr (±err) 199.235 (±135.6%) fiterr (±err)
1642
Washington, Alabama
fiterr (±err) 214.420 (±133.5%) 927.71 (±199.7%)
1622
Washington, Illinois
fiterr (±err) 252.142 (±155.7%) fiterr (±err)
2742
Washington, Missouri
3748 (±40.5%) 58.067 (±18.8%) 337.16 (±9.6%)
5053
Washington, Ohio
fiterr (±err) 179.803 (±193.1%) fiterr (±err)
518
Wayne, Iowa
723 (±6.4%) 55.946 (±3.2%) 329.55 (±1.5%)
2942
Wayne, Tennessee
2033 (±5.9%) 28.813 (±13.5%) 240.45 (±1.9%)
5064
Webster, Iowa
fiterr (±err) 234.878 (±88.8%) 1287.50 (±125.0%)
453
Webster, West Virginia
fiterr (±err) 168.538 (±11.5%) 1029.13 (±14.9%)
1169
West Carroll, Louisiana
fiterr (±err) 245.086 (±90.2%) 1280.26 (±128.5%)
3739
Whitley, Indiana
fiterr (±err) 179.381 (±122.2%) 1041.30 (±161.3%)
375
Wirt, West Virginia
fiterr (±err) 73.277 (±75.6%) 443.71 (±55.9%)
3368
Wood, Texas
fiterr (±err) 245.701 (±136.9%) 1357.02 (±193.9%)
701
Worth, Iowa
fiterr (±err) 171.749 (±57.5%) 940.80 (±75.2%)
1559
Wright, Missouri
1173 (±24.4%) 41.892 (±23.5%) 285.17 (±5.6%)
73
Yakutat, Alaska
57 (±1.8%) 42.450 (±2.2%) 253.15 (±0.6%)
1091
Yellow Medicine, Minnesota
fiterr (±err) 103.758 (±42.3%) 530.70 (±44.6%)
868
Yoakum, Texas
fiterr (±err) 228.144 (±86.9%) 1253.11 (±121.6%)
1849
Zavala, Texas
1572 (±5.9%) 67.353 (±2.9%) 316.75 (±2.0%)

For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.


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