Elm LaboratoryCOVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People in the US by names
fit with advanced Gompertz function
with Advanced Gompertz Function
All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.
The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.
The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.
In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.
Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 500 , between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 9999, between 10000 and 49999, between 50000 and 99999, above 100000.
Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.
The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.
Applied maths is explained here.
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Actualisation date: Thu Apr 15 08:29:28 UTC 2021
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Clicking on the name will direct to a page with all images for the country.
| Ncurrent location |
Nmax (err) | cumulative_inf. | infected_daily | T2 (err) | dturning_point (err) |
| 333 Adams, Idaho | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 175.959 (±112.6%) | 1013.55 (±147.8%) |
| 269 Adams, North Dakota | 223 (±1.4%) |  |  | 30.515 (±1.8%) | 300.66 (±0.2%) |
| 2266 Adams, Ohio | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 204.131 (±126.1%) | 1255.49 (±174.2%) |
| 679 Aleutians West, Alaska | 133 (±3.3%) |  |  | 35.610 (±6.9%) | 207.42 (±1.6%) |
| 905 Allendale, South Carolina | 1959 (±145.2%) |  |  | 119.696 (±48.1%) | 419.40 (±66.6%) |
| 704 Anasco, Puerto Rico | 2194496 (±198.0%) |  |  | 167.399 (±11.6%) | 966.71 (±15.0%) |
| 2461 Anson, North Carolina | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 197.918 (±131.0%) | 877.88 (±190.5%) |
| 938 Arenac, Michigan | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 235.347 (±121.8%) | 1466.63 (±175.1%) |
| 445 Atchison, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 219.717 (±134.0%) | 1233.97 (±186.0%) |
| 2771 Audrain, Missouri | 1347072 (±75.3%) |  |  | 175.876 (±5.6%) | 951.61 (±7.4%) |
| 463 Aurora, South Dakota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 249.696 (±90.1%) | 1460.49 (±128.3%) |
| 385 Ballard, Kentucky | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 272.787 (±91.9%) | 1644.90 (±133.7%) |
| 1338 Bandera, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 223.433 (±137.8%) | 1221.14 (±192.0%) |
| 35 Banner, Nebraska | 2972 (±156.6%) |  |  | 106.636 (±16.6%) | 616.80 (±17.4%) |
| 259 Bath, Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 186.870 (±9.3%) | 1176.84 (±12.6%) |
| 4085 Bedford, Pennsylvania | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 188.909 (±128.2%) | 1181.78 (±174.6%) |
| 1047 Benson, North Dakota | 1661 (±3.0%) |  |  | 58.984 (±1.6%) | 312.25 (±0.9%) |
| 5230 Benton, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 243.682 (±134.5%) | 1370.76 (±190.3%) |
| 554 Big Stone, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 271.258 (±122.5%) | 1642.07 (±178.6%) |
| 334 Boise, Idaho | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 182.945 (±22.7%) | 980.41 (±30.1%) |
| 3760 Boone, Arkansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 258.535 (±158.1%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 4232 Branch, Michigan | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 262.173 (±110.6%) | 1552.71 (±159.2%) |
| 1585 Brantley, Georgia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 156.480 (±56.2%) | 724.44 (±75.5%) |
| 976 Brewster, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 190.648 (±24.9%) | 1050.32 (±33.4%) |
| 2095 Brooke, West Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 142.942 (±92.2%) | 853.81 (±112.5%) |
| 1373 Brooks, Georgia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 192.932 (±102.9%) | 797.56 (±153.9%) |
| 218 Brown, Nebraska | 295 (±3.2%) |  |  | 41.527 (±2.4%) | 312.07 (±0.6%) |
| 3846 Brown, Ohio | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 196.680 (±153.8%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 702 Brule, South Dakota | 894 (±8.7%) |  |  | 42.067 (±6.9%) | 304.58 (±1.7%) |
| 872 Buena Vista, Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 202.091 (±125.1%) | 1146.58 (±170.4%) |
| 8562 Cabell, West Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 212.711 (±138.0%) | 1216.44 (±190.1%) |
| 1330 Calhoun, Iowa | 1680 (±5.9%) |  |  | 38.733 (±4.8%) | 311.00 (±1.0%) |
| 267 Calhoun, West Virginia | 78727 (±134.0%) |  |  | 146.446 (±10.4%) | 818.66 (±12.9%) |
| 131 Campbell, South Dakota | 113 (±0.6%) |  |  | 25.802 (±1.2%) | 280.00 (±0.1%) |
| 1545 Canovanas, Puerto Rico | 1986 (±4.3%) |  |  | 68.763 (±1.9%) | 332.74 (±1.4%) |
| 856 Carbon, Montana | 1642 (±54.7%) |  |  | 58.968 (±23.7%) | 345.20 (±12.4%) |
| 3246 Carlton, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 195.830 (±96.1%) | 1181.42 (±130.6%) |
| 6404 Carter, Tennessee | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 170.656 (±90.3%) | 839.22 (±121.8%) |
| 8785 Chaves, New Mexico | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 230.031 (±120.0%) | 1341.36 (±168.4%) |
| 496 Chouteau, Montana | 456 (±2.1%) |  |  | 34.096 (±1.9%) | 314.21 (±0.3%) |
| 677 Ciales, Puerto Rico | 2553 (±16.7%) |  |  | 94.512 (±4.2%) | 446.26 (±4.2%) |
| 248 Clark, Kansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 308.794 (±29.0%) | 1855.31 (±42.8%) |
| 239 Clay, Georgia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 166.337 (±68.1%) | 586.08 (±107.5%) |
| 3287 Clinton, Pennsylvania | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 178.745 (±160.8%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 975 Cloud, Kansas | 1147 (±22.9%) |  |  | 33.863 (±19.1%) | 321.14 (±2.9%) |
| 689 Coal, Oklahoma | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 204.044 (±15.5%) | 1228.11 (±21.2%) |
| 758 Coamo, Puerto Rico | 20624 (±29.8%) |  |  | 117.920 (±3.8%) | 624.14 (±4.2%) |
| 738 Coleman, Texas | 3124 (±27.0%) |  |  | 87.786 (±5.7%) | 463.38 (±5.2%) |
| 9091 Cole, Missouri | 13889 (±54.5%) |  |  | 52.790 (±29.3%) | 325.46 (±12.3%) |
| 316 Collingsworth, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 118.350 (±31.9%) | 742.96 (±35.7%) |
| 3650 Cooke, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 191.415 (±74.5%) | 1106.61 (±100.0%) |
| 1914 Cooper, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 156.301 (±68.9%) | 769.92 (±90.4%) |
| 1947 Coos, Oregon | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 242.322 (±65.3%) | 1445.10 (±92.8%) |
| 205 Costilla, Colorado | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 315.025 (±176.3%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 655 Crawford, Georgia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 176.116 (±83.4%) | 780.77 (±118.1%) |
| 2556 Crawford, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 134.304 (±68.5%) | 674.93 (±84.0%) |
| 32 Culebra, Puerto Rico | 18 (±0.9%) |  |  | 17.004 (±4.3%) | 198.51 (±0.4%) |
| 9481 Cullman, Alabama | fiterr (±err) |  |  | fiterr (±err) | fiterr (±err) |
| 1176 Custer, Montana | 1565 (±5.5%) |  |  | 43.369 (±3.4%) | 324.41 (±0.9%) |
| 1258 Dallas, Missouri | 1093 (±33.7%) |  |  | 51.511 (±21.6%) | 306.65 (±8.5%) |
| 197 Daniels, Montana | 161 (±1.8%) |  |  | 27.413 (±2.3%) | 312.17 (±0.2%) |
| 799 Davis, Iowa | 36923 (±66.2%) |  |  | 122.035 (±8.1%) | 641.63 (±9.4%) |
| 1102 Dawson, Montana | 1660 (±4.2%) |  |  | 43.723 (±2.3%) | 333.31 (±0.7%) |
| 3984 Defiance, Ohio | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 226.082 (±158.1%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 2608 Delta, Colorado | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 155.531 (±181.0%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 505 Deuel, South Dakota | 712 (±43.1%) |  |  | 52.125 (±24.0%) | 322.51 (±9.8%) |
| 1721 Dickinson, Kansas | 6749 (±8.3%) |  |  | 75.308 (±2.1%) | 421.95 (±1.6%) |
| 2551 Dickinson, Michigan | 2609 (±15.4%) |  |  | 31.864 (±16.4%) | 309.76 (±2.1%) |
| 225 Dillingham, Alaska | 2808 (±72.7%) |  |  | 125.170 (±11.3%) | 604.97 (±13.5%) |
| 964 Doniphan, Kansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 141.151 (±80.0%) | 727.12 (±99.4%) |
| 450 Douglas, South Dakota | 560 (±1.8%) |  |  | 46.706 (±1.2%) | 310.05 (±0.4%) |
| 1123 East Carroll, Louisiana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 169.780 (±71.7%) | 622.51 (±111.2%) |
| 465 Echols, Georgia | 328 (±7.0%) |  |  | 52.636 (±11.3%) | 152.42 (±6.3%) |
| 1656 Edgar, Illinois | 2484 (±7.7%) |  |  | 42.118 (±4.1%) | 339.71 (±1.1%) |
| 259 Edwards, Kansas | 1176 (±15.1%) |  |  | 74.821 (±4.1%) | 408.73 (±3.1%) |
| 179 Elk, Kansas | 388 (±10.3%) |  |  | 55.705 (±3.2%) | 382.61 (±1.6%) |
| 232 Essex, Vermont | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 167.284 (±151.3%) | 1034.35 (±197.3%) |
| 279 Fallon, Montana | 289 (±1.3%) |  |  | 22.818 (±2.3%) | 308.89 (±0.1%) |
| 1509 Fillmore, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 242.238 (±138.8%) | 1475.30 (±198.7%) |
| 293 Fisher, Texas | 625 (±8.1%) |  |  | 76.072 (±2.9%) | 368.82 (±2.3%) |
| 1681 Ford, Illinois | 3197 (±92.6%) |  |  | 51.640 (±36.3%) | 359.11 (±15.2%) |
| 1303 Franklin, Florida | 828 (±4.7%) |  |  | 28.388 (±11.9%) | 223.32 (±1.8%) |
| 710 Franklin, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 189.349 (±107.2%) | 878.55 (±151.6%) |
| 1849 Freestone, Texas | 1270 (±5.1%) |  |  | 59.005 (±3.3%) | 286.66 (±1.8%) |
| 112 Garden, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 213.596 (±36.1%) | 1275.09 (±49.9%) |
| 78 Garfield, Montana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 266.242 (±44.1%) | 1603.29 (±63.7%) |
| 1740 Gem, Idaho | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 211.029 (±97.0%) | 1181.14 (±133.6%) |
| 55 Gilliam, Oregon | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 251.266 (±18.0%) | 1521.06 (±25.8%) |
| 933 Glades, Florida | 1455 (±40.2%) |  |  | 88.199 (±21.6%) | 286.65 (±24.8%) |
| 1342 Gogebic, Michigan | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 252.063 (±110.2%) | 1492.00 (±157.6%) |
| 256 Golden Valley, North Dakota | 252 (±2.2%) |  |  | 43.764 (±1.9%) | 291.42 (±0.5%) |
| 181 Gosper, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 235.064 (±94.3%) | 1295.58 (±132.6%) |
| 572 Graham, North Carolina | 360 (±1.5%) |  |  | 38.102 (±1.9%) | 263.11 (±0.4%) |
| 1663 Grant, New Mexico | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 184.919 (±137.7%) | 1058.70 (±183.3%) |
| 104 Greeley, Kansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 224.052 (±50.5%) | 1342.78 (±70.6%) |
| 1779 Gurabo, Puerto Rico | 3832 (±6.1%) |  |  | 77.559 (±1.9%) | 394.80 (±1.5%) |
| 262 Haakon, South Dakota | 376 (±3.7%) |  |  | 46.243 (±2.2%) | 326.25 (±0.7%) |
| 1602 Hamilton, Florida | 1521 (±16.7%) |  |  | 69.406 (±14.0%) | 220.23 (±11.8%) |
| 760 Hamilton, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 140.441 (±53.0%) | 670.39 (±67.6%) |
| 1872 Hampton, South Carolina | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 210.946 (±162.5%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 1714 Hancock, Illinois | 4132 (±65.7%) |  |  | 63.224 (±22.7%) | 371.81 (±13.4%) |
| 538 Hancock, Tennessee | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 183.278 (±26.9%) | 956.51 (±36.2%) |
| 356 Hand, South Dakota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 234.312 (±32.5%) | 1429.49 (±46.2%) |
| 94 Harding, South Dakota | 87 (±1.4%) |  |  | 22.213 (±3.0%) | 294.84 (±0.2%) |
| 218 Harlan, Nebraska | 256 (±2.3%) |  |  | 39.903 (±1.7%) | 316.21 (±0.4%) |
| 2639 Hawaii, Hawaii | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 222.218 (±135.9%) | 1037.25 (±198.1%) |
| 2019 Henry, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 294.187 (±181.0%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 324 Hettinger, North Dakota | 385 (±2.6%) |  |  | 43.641 (±2.0%) | 304.57 (±0.5%) |
| 646 Hickory, Missouri | 591 (±2.8%) |  |  | 45.117 (±2.2%) | 298.79 (±0.6%) |
| 254 Hitchcock, Nebraska | 319 (±3.1%) |  |  | 43.905 (±1.6%) | 338.00 (±0.5%) |
| 2780 Hockley, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 178.695 (±93.5%) | 890.66 (±127.1%) |
| 839 Holt, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 212.637 (±28.4%) | 1267.26 (±39.3%) |
| 53 Hooker, Nebraska | 62 (±3.2%) |  |  | 38.860 (±3.1%) | 296.23 (±0.6%) |
| 3041 Hopkins, Texas | 5877 (±94.2%) |  |  | 61.811 (±36.7%) | 356.96 (±20.9%) |
| 1079 Houston, Tennessee | 1042 (±34.4%) |  |  | 48.186 (±25.6%) | 296.18 (±8.7%) |
| 1644 Howard, Arkansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 190.977 (±103.6%) | 850.10 (±149.4%) |
| 3751 Huntington, Indiana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 202.160 (±146.4%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 875 Hutchinson, South Dakota | 1121 (±36.3%) |  |  | 43.997 (±23.5%) | 320.48 (±6.6%) |
| 3211 Jackson, Arkansas | 12743 (±8.9%) |  |  | 67.633 (±2.5%) | 398.31 (±1.7%) |
| 57 Jackson, Colorado | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 218.976 (±52.1%) | 1187.94 (±72.0%) |
| 2176 Jackson, Iowa | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 240.046 (±90.6%) | 1413.76 (±128.3%) |
| 605 Jack, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 125.347 (±36.7%) | 595.15 (±44.5%) |
| 189 Jeff Davis, Texas | 40725 (±189.0%) |  |  | 128.946 (±16.1%) | 732.83 (±18.8%) |
| 2552 Jerome, Idaho | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 167.911 (±53.5%) | 794.58 (±72.8%) |
| 1879 Johnson, Kentucky | 4428 (±131.3%) |  |  | 67.701 (±39.7%) | 389.70 (±26.2%) |
| 974 Juana Diaz, Puerto Rico | 117745 (±85.1%) |  |  | 156.382 (±7.9%) | 820.74 (±10.2%) |
| 2031 Kingfisher, Oklahoma | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 147.351 (±67.3%) | 724.41 (±86.4%) |
| 238 Kiowa, Kansas | 209 (±3.5%) |  |  | 45.481 (±2.5%) | 310.49 (±0.7%) |
| 3335 Knox, Kentucky | 7854 (±73.4%) |  |  | 88.501 (±19.8%) | 421.61 (±18.9%) |
| 1094 Kodiak Island, Alaska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 171.703 (±20.3%) | 1104.83 (±27.2%) |
| 723 Lake, Colorado | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 315.645 (±198.6%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 2993 Latah, Idaho | 3605 (±39.4%) |  |  | 50.834 (±23.1%) | 318.43 (±8.9%) |
| 1381 Lawrence, Kentucky | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 175.288 (±154.3%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 2669 Le Sueur, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 304.175 (±152.6%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 1587 Lincoln, Montana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 202.424 (±121.0%) | 1167.83 (±165.0%) |
| 1282 Lincoln, Oregon | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 205.064 (±135.9%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 1224 Little River, Arkansas | 1043 (±3.1%) |  |  | 56.360 (±2.2%) | 278.25 (±1.1%) |
| 553 Luquillo, Puerto Rico | 667 (±5.6%) |  |  | 73.142 (±2.3%) | 344.99 (±1.7%) |
| 559 Mackinac, Michigan | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 253.498 (±102.1%) | 1523.89 (±146.8%) |
| 1593 Macon, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 76.967 (±56.0%) | 426.63 (±44.0%) |
| 1527 Madison, Iowa | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 227.134 (±114.4%) | 1253.24 (±160.0%) |
| 950 Major, Oklahoma | 2277 (±91.6%) |  |  | 59.871 (±31.6%) | 371.38 (±17.2%) |
| 1048 Marion, Kansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 235.540 (±119.7%) | 1437.54 (±170.5%) |
| 965 Marshall, Illinois | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 247.854 (±153.4%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 364 Marshall, South Dakota | 1660 (±191.8%) |  |  | 73.919 (±46.5%) | 423.33 (±34.6%) |
| 1663 Mason, Michigan | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 203.996 (±120.4%) | 1155.75 (±164.4%) |
| 3677 Matagorda, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | fiterr (±err) | fiterr (±err) |
| 10675 Matanuska-Susitna, Alaska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 67.141 (±67.4%) | 412.39 (±44.3%) |
| 1621 Mayaguez, Puerto Rico | 4247 (±19.0%) |  |  | 96.876 (±5.2%) | 429.87 (±5.5%) |
| 6275 McCracken, Kentucky | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 252.981 (±146.1%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 1934 McCreary, Kentucky | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 190.656 (±166.0%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 2365 McDonald, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 158.089 (±76.7%) | 563.02 (±118.8%) |
| 1219 McKenzie, North Dakota | 1468 (±22.3%) |  |  | 45.352 (±16.8%) | 301.79 (±4.9%) |
| 864 McLean, Kentucky | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 218.737 (±124.7%) | 1228.88 (±173.0%) |
| 83 McMullen, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 277.223 (±52.8%) | 1605.31 (±75.8%) |
| 30 McPherson, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 304.412 (±30.1%) | 1858.22 (±44.7%) |
| 243 McPherson, South Dakota | 344 (±5.7%) |  |  | 51.368 (±3.0%) | 331.05 (±1.2%) |
| 1100 Mercer, North Dakota | 1189 (±14.6%) |  |  | 34.222 (±16.2%) | 298.12 (±2.4%) |
| 747 Merrick, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 184.209 (±73.3%) | 1034.69 (±97.6%) |
| 561 Mitchell, Kansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 192.994 (±152.8%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 2067 Montague, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 105.805 (±88.6%) | 585.79 (±92.7%) |
| 3634 Montgomery, Illinois | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 180.612 (±134.2%) | 889.71 (±183.5%) |
| 633 Moody, South Dakota | 938 (±4.3%) |  |  | 50.330 (±2.4%) | 323.88 (±0.9%) |
| 169 Mora, New Mexico | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 134.656 (±16.3%) | 839.75 (±19.5%) |
| 402 Nance, Nebraska | 504 (±3.3%) |  |  | 38.002 (±2.5%) | 316.84 (±0.5%) |
| 465 Nelson, North Dakota | 538 (±2.5%) |  |  | 38.899 (±2.2%) | 303.66 (±0.4%) |
| 655 Nemaha, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 187.667 (±107.5%) | 923.85 (±148.6%) |
| 345 Nome, Alaska | 644 (±4.7%) |  |  | 64.428 (±2.0%) | 344.30 (±1.2%) |
| 1954 O’Brien, Iowa | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 166.347 (±58.2%) | 871.27 (±76.3%) |
| 1106 Ochiltree, Texas | 187788 (±93.5%) |  |  | 141.445 (±8.8%) | 760.59 (±10.8%) |
| 436 Ontonagon, Michigan | 348 (±10.9%) |  |  | 28.682 (±15.2%) | 300.47 (±1.5%) |
| 641 Orange, Vermont | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 168.740 (±195.0%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 1635 Osage, Missouri | 1505 (±25.2%) |  |  | 38.715 (±22.0%) | 305.17 (±4.4%) |
| 1436 Parke, Indiana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 93.557 (±52.4%) | 531.64 (±49.8%) |
| 295 Patillas, Puerto Rico | 14859 (±57.0%) |  |  | 133.161 (±6.3%) | 697.65 (±7.6%) |
| 476 Penuelas, Puerto Rico | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 190.635 (±19.5%) | 1127.52 (±26.2%) |
| 3128 Perry, Illinois | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 185.573 (±61.2%) | 1085.17 (±81.6%) |
| 2878 Perry, Ohio | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 205.529 (±132.9%) | 1213.74 (±182.2%) |
| 353 Phillips, Colorado | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 241.272 (±117.0%) | 1479.41 (±167.8%) |
| 712 Phillips, Kansas | 2733 (±59.3%) |  |  | 75.829 (±16.4%) | 407.19 (±12.7%) |
| 401 Piscataquis, Maine | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 175.272 (±16.0%) | 1120.20 (±21.5%) |
| 5053 Pontotoc, Oklahoma | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 75.521 (±66.6%) | 422.94 (±51.1%) |
| 304 Pope, Illinois | 264826 (±132.2%) |  |  | 146.310 (±9.1%) | 841.98 (±11.2%) |
| 888 Prairie, Arkansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 154.488 (±72.4%) | 740.78 (±95.5%) |
| 86 Prince of Wales-Hyder, Alaska | 202 (±37.6%) |  |  | 82.512 (±13.2%) | 370.55 (±12.0%) |
| 1128 Pulaski, Indiana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 223.803 (±88.3%) | 1368.79 (±124.5%) |
| 2502 Pulaski, Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 175.258 (±129.1%) | 1027.09 (±169.4%) |
| 439 Putnam, Illinois | 660 (±6.5%) |  |  | 52.542 (±3.1%) | 338.95 (±1.3%) |
| 785 Rains, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 139.697 (±57.4%) | 769.36 (±69.7%) |
| 298 Rawlins, Kansas | 312 (±2.9%) |  |  | 38.105 (±2.6%) | 304.50 (±0.5%) |
| 1960 Ray, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 171.657 (±124.1%) | 857.54 (±166.7%) |
| 377 Reagan, Texas | 30552 (±148.2%) |  |  | 135.905 (±17.0%) | 702.31 (±20.6%) |
| 382 Red Lake, Minnesota | 1920 (±66.0%) |  |  | 74.302 (±16.2%) | 422.25 (±12.1%) |
| 675 Red River, Texas | 12255 (±106.9%) |  |  | 163.592 (±15.5%) | 740.09 (±21.3%) |
| 317 Renville, North Dakota | 426 (±4.1%) |  |  | 44.564 (±2.8%) | 313.63 (±0.8%) |
| 1077 Ripley, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 223.926 (±118.9%) | 1246.58 (±165.7%) |
| 1336 Roberts, South Dakota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 140.544 (±65.9%) | 712.50 (±82.2%) |
| 2134 Rolette, North Dakota | 2487 (±21.9%) |  |  | 34.736 (±18.8%) | 317.13 (±3.0%) |
| 656 Rooks, Kansas | 1022 (±45.0%) |  |  | 55.297 (±20.3%) | 342.87 (±9.4%) |
| 1875 Roosevelt, New Mexico | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 254.530 (±114.8%) | 1500.76 (±164.3%) |
| 613 Sabine, Texas | 105000 (±136.9%) |  |  | 156.739 (±12.1%) | 832.98 (±15.5%) |
| 618 Sanders, Montana | 23135 (±52.1%) |  |  | 103.930 (±6.5%) | 583.93 (±6.7%) |
| 46 San Juan, Colorado | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 231.234 (±18.9%) | 1387.67 (±26.7%) |
| 676 Searcy, Arkansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 265.574 (±159.4%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 2783 Sevier, Arkansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 200.012 (±113.1%) | 785.22 (±175.5%) |
| 590 Shelby, Missouri | fiterr (±err) |  |  | fiterr (±err) | fiterr (±err) |
| 421 Sheridan, Montana | 400 (±1.3%) |  |  | 26.696 (±1.7%) | 312.84 (±0.1%) |
| 500 Sheridan, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 214.976 (±24.8%) | 1297.45 (±34.5%) |
| 115 Sheridan, North Dakota | 113 (±2.6%) |  |  | 33.754 (±2.9%) | 297.73 (±0.4%) |
| 3093 Sheridan, Wyoming | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 243.841 (±131.4%) | 1462.44 (±187.5%) |
| 344 Sitka, Alaska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 236.832 (±17.2%) | 1418.22 (±24.4%) |
| 357 Stanton, Nebraska | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 199.391 (±67.2%) | 1170.91 (±91.4%) |
| 3526 Steele, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 304.215 (±168.3%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 1820 Ste. Genevieve, Missouri | 2674 (±50.4%) |  |  | 49.342 (±26.2%) | 333.66 (±9.7%) |
| 715 Stillwater, Montana | 751 (±17.1%) |  |  | 40.394 (±13.3%) | 311.11 (±3.0%) |
| 1793 Stone, Mississippi | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 156.167 (±63.6%) | 745.37 (±84.3%) |
| 862 Sullivan, Missouri | 8754 (±42.3%) |  |  | 121.398 (±7.8%) | 558.26 (±9.4%) |
| 366 Sullivan, Pennsylvania | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 127.820 (±173.8%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 2119 Sumner, Kansas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 111.833 (±84.6%) | 591.65 (±92.7%) |
| 978 Swift, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 188.222 (±62.4%) | 1094.71 (±83.5%) |
| 2969 Taylor, Kentucky | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 204.833 (±133.7%) | 1162.69 (±182.7%) |
| 80 Terrell, Texas | 129 (±10.1%) |  |  | 37.380 (±4.8%) | 350.63 (±1.1%) |
| 2735 Tioga, Pennsylvania | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 168.162 (±142.8%) | 1053.13 (±187.4%) |
| 3910 TriCounty, Utah | 103084 (±61.3%) |  |  | 100.783 (±8.1%) | 565.93 (±8.1%) |
| 398 Trinity, California | 383 (±4.0%) |  |  | 31.278 (±3.1%) | 330.93 (±0.4%) |
| 695 Union, Indiana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 241.490 (±108.9%) | 1471.90 (±155.8%) |
| 119 Vieques, Puerto Rico | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 189.869 (±64.5%) | 1065.51 (±86.2%) |
| 1721 Warren, Illinois | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 196.396 (±38.3%) | 1087.56 (±51.9%) |
| 4284 Warren, Mississippi | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 199.235 (±135.6%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 1642 Washington, Alabama | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 214.420 (±133.5%) | 927.71 (±199.7%) |
| 1622 Washington, Illinois | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 252.142 (±155.7%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 2742 Washington, Missouri | 3748 (±40.5%) |  |  | 58.067 (±18.8%) | 337.16 (±9.6%) |
| 5053 Washington, Ohio | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 179.803 (±193.1%) | fiterr (±err) |
| 518 Wayne, Iowa | 723 (±6.4%) |  |  | 55.946 (±3.2%) | 329.55 (±1.5%) |
| 2942 Wayne, Tennessee | 2033 (±5.9%) |  |  | 28.813 (±13.5%) | 240.45 (±1.9%) |
| 5064 Webster, Iowa | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 234.878 (±88.8%) | 1287.50 (±125.0%) |
| 453 Webster, West Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 168.538 (±11.5%) | 1029.13 (±14.9%) |
| 1169 West Carroll, Louisiana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 245.086 (±90.2%) | 1280.26 (±128.5%) |
| 3739 Whitley, Indiana | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 179.381 (±122.2%) | 1041.30 (±161.3%) |
| 375 Wirt, West Virginia | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 73.277 (±75.6%) | 443.71 (±55.9%) |
| 3368 Wood, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 245.701 (±136.9%) | 1357.02 (±193.9%) |
| 701 Worth, Iowa | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 171.749 (±57.5%) | 940.80 (±75.2%) |
| 1559 Wright, Missouri | 1173 (±24.4%) |  |  | 41.892 (±23.5%) | 285.17 (±5.6%) |
| 73 Yakutat, Alaska | 57 (±1.8%) |  |  | 42.450 (±2.2%) | 253.15 (±0.6%) |
| 1091 Yellow Medicine, Minnesota | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 103.758 (±42.3%) | 530.70 (±44.6%) |
| 868 Yoakum, Texas | fiterr (±err) |  |  | 228.144 (±86.9%) | 1253.11 (±121.6%) |
| 1849 Zavala, Texas | 1572 (±5.9%) |  |  | 67.353 (±2.9%) | 316.75 (±2.0%) |
For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted.
Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.