which trend of the Covid-19 epidemic can be seen for Spain?

Covid-19 in Spain

Like in Italy or Germany, the linear phase has been passed. The recent trend that moved above 4% of the expected curved, seems to be a data error, as the cumulative data dropped, that is not possible. We have to see if Johns Hopkins University is correcting the error.

From the P_N(x) value we can calculate that about 99% of the expected cases are reached. It is expected that around May 25 with increasing tendency, that the numbers of new infections per day will drop below the 100 cases limit, so that infection backtracing methods are logistically possible again, which means the end of crisis.

The delay time of the death from the infection courve is only about -3.8 days, so that the case fatality rate corrects to about 13.4%. In comparison: In Germany the delay time is about -14 days, which means that the patients were kept alife much longer in Germany than in Spain.

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