Laboratory at the Elm – Covid-19

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People

with Advanced Gompertz Function



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All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Thu Apr 15 04:18:41 UTC 2021

Ncurrent Nmax (fit) cumulative location death rate death rate cases daily t2 (fit) dturning point (fit)
8259351461156 (±3.9%) North America, North America3.52 (±4.3%) 100.949 (±2.1%) 365.82 (±2.1%)
579436575965 (±1.7%) South America, South America5.13 (±2.7%) 70.574 (±1.8%) 271.69 (±1.0%)
358425380705 (±3.3%) Brazil5.39 (±2.4%) 81.510 (±2.7%) 290.66 (±2.0%)
203987192252 (±0.2%) South Asia, South Asia2.20 (±3.3%) 46.997 (±0.3%) 236.66 (±0.1%)
150188173298 (±0.6%) Middle East, Middle East3.71 (±4.0%) 72.160 (±0.6%) 287.54 (±0.4%)
143732266551 (±2.3%) East Europe, East Europe5.13 (±4.9%) 90.580 (±1.1%) 402.24 (±0.9%)
116093187957 (±2.8%) Africa, Africa4.76 (±2.1%) 87.925 (±1.7%) 362.24 (±1.3%)
6648273470 (±1.2%) Colombia4.25 (±2.0%) 65.886 (±1.3%) 290.27 (±0.6%)
5817455849 (±0.4%) Argentina3.46 (±1.8%) 46.881 (±0.7%) 279.80 (±0.2%)
5342393401 (±4.9%) South Africa5.62 (±1.9%) 88.090 (±2.7%) 373.10 (±2.1%)
3947753638 (±1.9%) Ukraine1.06 (±15.9%) 73.874 (±1.2%) 376.06 (±0.6%)
2356636197 (±7.3%) Belgium-0.89 (±339.2%) 104.906 (±5.2%) 291.34 (±6.2%)
2337056112 (±14.6%) Canada, Canada4.61 (±13.5%) 128.990 (±6.4%) 421.68 (±8.4%)
1735116454 (±0.7%) Ecuador6.43 (±2.1%) 52.005 (±1.3%) 210.71 (±0.6%)
1575418512 (±3.9%) Pakistan3.97 (±1.8%) 84.532 (±3.2%) 284.88 (±2.6%)
1474615124 (±1.7%) Bulgaria2.79 (±62.5%) 52.856 (±1.8%) 352.79 (±0.4%)
1252613390 (±2.9%) Egypt9.87 (±1.3%) 75.580 (±2.9%) 262.17 (±2.0%)
1249611247 (±0.7%) Bolivia7.22 (±1.4%) 43.852 (±1.7%) 228.52 (±0.5%)
98918964 (±0.6%) Bangladesh2.50 (±2.0%) 53.587 (±1.0%) 227.68 (±0.4%)
97488693963253 (±876.8%) Austria-5.60 (±142.3%) 377.714 (±29.4%) 2254.46 (±43.2%)
939610133 (±0.6%) Tunisia5.16 (±2.7%) 49.463 (±0.7%) 347.51 (±0.1%)
89159351 (±0.4%) Morocco1.09 (±13.9%) 45.744 (±0.7%) 294.99 (±0.1%)
74878505 (±2.3%) Bosnia and Herzegovina5.19 (±5.9%) 65.574 (±1.9%) 351.42 (±0.8%)
70577334 (±1.4%) Guatemala5.49 (±1.6%) 64.193 (±1.6%) 263.67 (±0.8%)
673821906 (±7.9%) Lebanon2.78 (±4.9%) 85.830 (±2.6%) 481.98 (±1.7%)
61738660 (±2.4%) Panama2.57 (±4.1%) 80.876 (±1.8%) 321.15 (±1.2%)
54389145 (±2.5%) Moldova3.94 (±3.8%) 95.546 (±1.3%) 389.30 (±1.1%)
49786253 (±3.4%) Paraguay4.03 (±2.9%) 77.052 (±2.2%) 368.76 (±1.2%)
480316425310 (±605.3%) Ireland9.98 (±3.7%) 398.319 (±38.2%) 2092.46 (±55.9%)
39784586 (±2.8%) Azerbaijan4.53 (±4.5%) 61.567 (±2.6%) 336.14 (±0.9%)
38943831 (±0.2%) Georgia1.41 (±2.2%) 36.016 (±0.3%) 338.31 (±0.0%)
37754361 (±1.9%) Armenia4.36 (±3.5%) 68.405 (±1.8%) 302.82 (±0.9%)
33973154 (±1.0%) Dominican Republic2.54 (±4.4%) 56.135 (±1.6%) 213.21 (±0.8%)
32763088 (±0.7%) Kazakhstan1.46 (±5.5%) 42.917 (±1.7%) 227.05 (±0.5%)
32302883 (±1.5%) Ethiopia2.07 (±7.1%) 59.598 (±1.9%) 278.06 (±0.7%)
31373353 (±0.6%) Algeria3.63 (±4.0%) 63.849 (±0.9%) 222.44 (±0.5%)
30443205 (±0.4%) Costa Rica2.47 (±4.0%) 53.567 (±0.5%) 296.38 (±0.1%)
25292527 (±1.2%) Afghanistan5.65 (±0.9%) 56.289 (±2.1%) 212.29 (±1.0%)
24466716466 (±363.2%) Denmark1.24 (±71.4%) 331.301 (±23.6%) 1752.73 (±33.8%)
23942295 (±1.0%) Kenya3.10 (±2.5%) 59.279 (±1.2%) 280.85 (±0.5%)
23733730 (±2.7%) Belarus2.44 (±3.3%) 95.676 (±1.6%) 354.42 (±1.4%)
23265003 (±2.8%) Albania2.89 (±6.0%) 92.890 (±1.2%) 427.52 (±0.9%)
20213009 (±4.2%) Alberta, Canada1.32 (±63.1%) 66.384 (±3.1%) 368.29 (±1.2%)
20042228 (±1.5%) Kosovo5.27 (±4.1%) 68.278 (±1.4%) 307.44 (±0.7%)
17981651 (±0.3%) Oman1.32 (±5.1%) 45.105 (±0.6%) 236.07 (±0.2%)
153721621659 (±318.9%) United Arab Emirates1.67 (±5.1%) 362.248 (±16.5%) 2000.25 (±23.9%)
134525659 (±35.2%) Malaysia2.08 (±34.2%) 156.131 (±5.7%) 746.61 (±6.9%)
1007961 (±0.5%) Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania5.51 (±3.4%) 23.886 (±2.1%) 219.47 (±0.3%)
919538 (±1.6%) Cameroon3.56 (±2.8%) 44.694 (±4.4%) 158.77 (±2.2%)
7941985 (±9.7%) Mozambique2.16 (±4.0%) 75.989 (±4.1%) 446.99 (±2.1%)
7772306 (±12.7%) Luxembourg1.19 (±87.0%) 114.081 (±4.5%) 472.66 (±4.6%)
7451218 (±5.4%) Congo (Kinshasa)5.36 (±2.1%) 91.859 (±3.3%) 341.69 (±2.9%)
688259903 (±293.8%) Norway4.33 (±3.5%) 346.129 (±26.2%) 1682.03 (±38.5%)
682998 (±5.8%) Jamaica-1.99 (±70.5%) 83.813 (±3.1%) 391.14 (±2.1%)
6631778 (±6.4%) Botswana2.24 (±10.4%) 63.344 (±2.4%) 466.39 (±0.9%)
566506 (±1.4%) Bahrain0.94 (±7.2%) 60.584 (±1.9%) 247.48 (±0.9%)
554569 (±0.3%) Angola3.25 (±4.2%) 53.913 (±0.5%) 283.55 (±0.2%)
403485 (±1.1%) Malta-3.78 (±53.2%) 58.996 (±1.0%) 356.08 (±0.3%)
337368 (±0.8%) Uganda0.25 (±124.3%) 46.964 (±1.3%) 307.01 (±0.3%)
318331 (±0.4%) Belize3.64 (±5.9%) 36.057 (±1.0%) 324.98 (±0.1%)
316487 (±4.2%) Rwanda3.53 (±3.5%) 61.289 (±2.8%) 396.08 (±0.9%)
274296 (±2.0%) Cyprus-1.92 (±180.5%) 46.145 (±2.5%) 357.73 (±0.4%)
258235 (±1.2%) Guyana1.92 (±15.2%) 56.170 (±1.6%) 281.34 (±0.5%)
190183 (±0.4%) Bahamas3.02 (±4.1%) 35.468 (±1.1%) 257.26 (±0.2%)
189165 (±0.6%) Guadeloupe, France-3.02 (±41.6%) 28.473 (±2.0%) 274.73 (±0.2%)
187179 (±1.2%) Cabo Verde1.86 (±6.4%) 61.670 (±1.4%) 280.78 (±0.6%)
1673167 (±149.4%) Chad10.90 (±2.9%) 282.646 (±26.5%) 1113.28 (±41.5%)
16710401474 (±720.2%) Mayotte, France3.31 (±3.4%) 380.892 (±31.0%) 2174.34 (±45.1%)
153468507 (±492.9%) Burkina Faso3.44 (±11.9%) 405.466 (±31.8%) 2116.64 (±46.7%)
146137 (±0.4%) Trinidad and Tobago1.06 (±34.6%) 33.186 (±1.3%) 258.67 (±0.2%)
141143 (±0.2%) French Polynesia, France1.06 (±17.7%) 34.215 (±0.5%) 319.04 (±0.1%)
137126 (±1.0%) Congo (Brazzaville)1.96 (±4.0%) 50.785 (±1.9%) 199.41 (±0.9%)
136112 (±2.2%) Guinea1.57 (±3.9%) 66.960 (±3.2%) 215.02 (±1.8%)
135364213 (±350.1%) Reunion, France1.03 (±89.5%) 263.668 (±21.4%) 1454.99 (±29.3%)
121395 (±26.6%) Andorra1.31 (±67.5%) 171.226 (±9.9%) 522.18 (±15.9%)
116132 (±2.4%) Togo4.91 (±5.2%) 79.451 (±2.0%) 298.36 (±1.4%)
10689 (±0.5%) Equatorial Guinea2.02 (±2.7%) 25.603 (±2.2%) 176.25 (±0.5%)
10263 (±0.5%) Djibouti2.26 (±4.5%) 17.624 (±3.2%) 152.85 (±0.5%)
93226 (±26.4%) Benin2.51 (±18.3%) 130.929 (±10.4%) 458.33 (±13.0%)
92109 (±2.8%) Aruba, Netherlands-9.03 (±65.0%) 71.778 (±2.3%) 328.28 (±1.2%)
863576 (±318.5%) Channel Islands, United Kingdom9.34 (±3.1%) 326.192 (±46.6%) 1357.54 (±72.6%)
8585 (±0.4%) Liberia4.94 (±1.9%) 29.959 (±1.6%) 157.55 (±0.5%)
7563 (±0.3%) Central African Republic1.45 (±7.7%) 13.829 (±2.1%) 171.40 (±0.2%)
6769 (±1.1%) Maldives1.22 (±6.6%) 62.908 (±1.5%) 248.73 (±0.7%)
6665 (±0.1%) Nova Scotia, Canada5.42 (±1.1%) 12.245 (±0.7%) 118.20 (±0.1%)
6650 (±1.0%) Guinea-Bissau2.55 (±12.3%) 44.284 (±2.6%) 183.46 (±1.0%)
5967 (±3.6%) Martinique, France0.88 (±103.6%) 85.521 (±3.1%) 271.66 (±2.6%)
5452 (±0.2%) New South Wales, Australia1.30 (±3.1%) 16.402 (±1.2%) 100.01 (±0.3%)
4419222882 (±966.2%) Barbados5.79 (±31.7%) 329.806 (±34.1%) 1973.70 (±49.1%)
35189955 (±1244.4%) Sao Tome and Principe3.13 (±1.8%) 474.428 (±74.1%) 2505.37 (±109.7%)
33119 (±15.8%) New Brunswick, Canada3.45 (±51.6%) 96.403 (±5.0%) 494.81 (±3.9%)
3363 (±12.6%) Cambodia259.05 (±135995394142057993533921523690110976.0%) 24.304 (±5.8%) 463.21 (±0.4%)
31225266 (±469.2%) Monaco-1.47 (±360.5%) 236.349 (±26.1%) 1354.03 (±34.8%)
3048088 (±4416.8%) Singapore0.00 (±82939.5%) 721.061 (±334.7%) 3541.54 (±512.7%)
2222 (±0.1%) Henan, China1.77 (±1.6%) 5.514 (±1.0%) 42.12 (±0.2%)


For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted. The order of countries is by having its first case.
.·. Impressum