Laboratory at the Elm – Covid-19

COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Dead People

with Advanced Gompertz Function



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All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is explained here.


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Actualisation date: Mon Aug 3 04:15:13 UTC 2020

Ncurrent Nmax (fit) cumulative location death rate death rate cases daily t2 (fit) dturning point (fit)
685061701143 (±1.6%) World total, World total7.42 (±4.9%) 28.490 (±1.8%) 131.01 (±0.7%)
680394695700 (±1.6%) World without China, World without China7.49 (±5.0%) 28.386 (±1.9%) 131.48 (±0.8%)
217868213116 (±1.3%) North America, North America8.32 (±4.3%) 25.574 (±1.8%) 129.39 (±0.6%)
154447141297 (±0.8%) US7.39 (±4.2%) 20.798 (±1.6%) 117.58 (±0.4%)
154447141295 (±0.8%) USA, USA7.39 (±4.2%) 20.798 (±1.6%) 117.58 (±0.4%)
139357216065 (±1.8%) South America, South America4.56 (±2.5%) 33.207 (±1.0%) 180.66 (±0.5%)
138375134697 (±0.2%) Europe, Europe11.42 (±1.2%) 14.146 (±0.6%) 98.19 (±0.1%)
93563119577 (±1.1%) Brazil4.69 (±3.2%) 29.368 (±0.8%) 166.93 (±0.3%)
4781495805 (±2.4%) South Asia, South Asia3.32 (±4.7%) 35.233 (±1.1%) 197.95 (±0.6%)
4747269216 (±0.8%) Mexico12.84 (±2.7%) 30.174 (±0.5%) 178.74 (±0.2%)
4619344479 (±0.4%) United Kingdom16.60 (±0.8%) 16.728 (±1.0%) 109.11 (±0.2%)
3736497244 (±3.8%) India3.81 (±6.4%) 38.561 (±1.4%) 212.73 (±0.9%)
3514634609 (±0.2%) Italy15.35 (±1.0%) 14.761 (±0.7%) 92.93 (±0.2%)
3306553190 (±6.8%) Middle East, Middle East4.92 (±5.0%) 42.374 (±3.7%) 171.84 (±3.0%)
3015029513 (±0.2%) France15.82 (±0.8%) 12.346 (±0.8%) 99.33 (±0.1%)
2875227997 (±0.2%) Spain12.22 (±1.1%) 12.207 (±0.9%) 93.98 (±0.2%)
1987773909 (±4.2%) Africa, Africa3.05 (±4.2%) 47.134 (±1.2%) 233.67 (±1.1%)
1902158640 (±13.9%) Peru6.36 (±3.3%) 44.396 (±4.6%) 222.62 (±3.6%)
1698223357 (±7.7%) Iran9.46 (±3.6%) 41.705 (±4.9%) 156.54 (±4.0%)
1633020403 (±0.8%) East Europe, East Europe2.88 (±4.7%) 28.904 (±0.6%) 162.93 (±0.2%)
1403417326 (±0.8%) Russia2.82 (±4.9%) 28.226 (±0.6%) 163.08 (±0.2%)
10330426147 (±14.4%) Colombia4.48 (±4.4%) 61.939 (±1.9%) 341.01 (±2.0%)
98459697 (±0.2%) Belgium16.38 (±0.6%) 12.258 (±0.6%) 103.28 (±0.1%)
953311749 (±2.0%) Chile0.46 (±79.0%) 23.582 (±1.8%) 174.26 (±0.4%)
91548961 (±0.2%) Germany5.28 (±2.2%) 13.754 (±0.6%) 104.17 (±0.1%)
89868946 (±0.1%) Canada, Canada9.00 (±1.9%) 17.128 (±0.4%) 121.17 (±0.1%)
8153135171 (±18.0%) South Africa1.07 (±21.1%) 53.742 (±3.0%) 297.53 (±2.8%)
744514464 (±6.8%) South-East Asia, South-East Asia5.29 (±4.0%) 43.578 (±3.0%) 191.22 (±2.5%)
61596103 (±0.1%) Netherlands12.98 (±1.1%) 13.457 (±0.4%) 99.92 (±0.1%)
59875962 (±0.9%) East Asia, East Asia5.79 (±1.5%) 19.653 (±2.4%) 60.43 (±1.6%)
59517539 (±1.7%) Pakistan2.67 (±5.6%) 25.836 (±1.6%) 164.80 (±0.4%)
57435650 (±0.4%) Sweden8.96 (±3.8%) 19.504 (±0.9%) 117.55 (±0.2%)
57365589 (±1.1%) Ecuador9.77 (±5.8%) 22.342 (±1.8%) 133.96 (±0.4%)
57105290 (±0.6%) Turkey3.60 (±3.4%) 16.735 (±1.6%) 110.52 (±0.3%)
56785715 (±0.2%) Quebec, Canada10.56 (±2.0%) 17.204 (±0.4%) 123.51 (±0.1%)
519316116 (±8.3%) Indonesia6.35 (±6.2%) 49.386 (±2.7%) 224.73 (±2.5%)
48349020 (±4.9%) Egypt4.73 (±3.9%) 33.839 (±2.5%) 188.85 (±1.3%)
48056583 (±2.0%) Iraq1.30 (±61.3%) 22.652 (±1.5%) 186.93 (±0.3%)
46674611 (±0.8%) China total, China total5.61 (±0.9%) 15.524 (±2.9%) 50.67 (±1.8%)
45124492 (±0.8%) Hubei, China6.71 (±1.0%) 15.849 (±2.9%) 50.99 (±1.9%)
35963223963 (±69.5%) Argentina2.36 (±32.8%) 94.944 (±5.1%) 526.10 (±6.5%)
31324792 (±1.2%) Bangladesh2.22 (±7.1%) 30.834 (±0.7%) 180.57 (±0.3%)
306414044 (±6.1%) Bolivia5.33 (±4.2%) 42.783 (±1.6%) 239.49 (±1.2%)
28874968 (±3.1%) Saudi Arabia2.10 (±5.6%) 31.927 (±1.7%) 186.43 (±0.8%)
28212778 (±0.2%) Ontario, Canada8.58 (±2.2%) 16.356 (±0.6%) 118.17 (±0.1%)
23792376 (±2.6%) Romania9.80 (±3.4%) 28.736 (±3.1%) 133.45 (±1.2%)
20392486 (±4.9%) Philippines5.25 (±10.1%) 35.260 (±3.6%) 152.26 (±2.2%)
19811952 (±0.1%) Switzerland6.47 (±2.2%) 11.809 (±0.4%) 96.40 (±0.1%)
19593489 (±1.9%) Guatemala5.76 (±9.4%) 28.722 (±1.0%) 195.87 (±0.4%)
17641731 (±0.2%) Ireland6.93 (±1.0%) 12.726 (±0.9%) 109.07 (±0.1%)
17371649 (±0.5%) Portugal5.32 (±3.0%) 18.190 (±1.4%) 108.40 (±0.3%)
17332196 (±1.8%) Ukraine4.97 (±4.8%) 31.687 (±1.4%) 159.42 (±0.6%)
17211705 (±1.0%) Poland6.36 (±3.9%) 23.386 (±1.6%) 125.30 (±0.5%)
1449156773 (±74.7%) Panama5.29 (±8.4%) 87.666 (±7.9%) 449.23 (±10.1%)
136875413 (±32.1%) Honduras3.50 (±12.3%) 72.226 (±3.9%) 379.93 (±4.5%)
12832658378073 (±1069.1%) Afghanistan3.60 (±1.6%) 157.877 (±33.1%) 962.15 (±48.3%)
12231296 (±2.9%) Algeria7.16 (±3.6%) 30.429 (±3.2%) 131.81 (±1.4%)
11701701 (±6.5%) Dominican Republic4.35 (±5.5%) 39.555 (±4.0%) 165.91 (±2.8%)
1012990 (±0.2%) Japan4.83 (±4.5%) 15.833 (±0.7%) 114.57 (±0.1%)
8831172 (±1.3%) Nigeria3.88 (±5.9%) 29.470 (±1.0%) 166.11 (±0.4%)
79312129259 (±339.1%) Kazakhstan3.18 (±9.8%) 89.513 (±17.0%) 543.37 (±21.4%)
7881033 (±1.3%) Moldova5.76 (±5.9%) 31.748 (±1.0%) 162.11 (±0.4%)
752757 (±0.6%) Sudan7.93 (±2.6%) 19.714 (±1.0%) 152.81 (±0.2%)
7491049 (±1.8%) Armenia1.01 (±35.1%) 28.029 (±1.2%) 177.19 (±0.4%)
718690 (±0.3%) Austria4.31 (±1.2%) 12.650 (±1.2%) 98.53 (±0.2%)
615603 (±0.2%) Denmark4.91 (±2.7%) 14.080 (±0.7%) 100.44 (±0.1%)
597591 (±0.2%) Hungary14.79 (±1.1%) 15.989 (±0.7%) 113.49 (±0.1%)
5825050 (±103.1%) Serbia4.42 (±2.9%) 76.951 (±21.7%) 325.92 (±28.1%)
563701 (±1.3%) Belarus1.69 (±8.9%) 30.805 (±1.1%) 156.95 (±0.5%)
526412 (±3.0%) Israel2.72 (±4.7%) 24.356 (±5.4%) 114.03 (±1.6%)
494569 (±1.7%) Yemen30.80 (±3.2%) 21.821 (±1.9%) 169.40 (±0.3%)
4931443 (±9.2%) North Macedonia6.47 (±23.6%) 46.244 (±3.3%) 216.65 (±2.8%)
4592156 (±11.9%) El Salvador5.34 (±7.4%) 41.331 (±3.2%) 237.98 (±2.2%)
4541500 (±5.6%) Azerbaijan2.36 (±27.9%) 41.058 (±1.8%) 222.58 (±1.3%)
453446 (±0.6%) Kuwait1.26 (±16.5%) 20.469 (±1.0%) 146.42 (±0.2%)
4211592 (±4.6%) Oman2.10 (±15.2%) 41.032 (±1.4%) 228.84 (±1.0%)
391445 (±1.7%) Cameroon2.14 (±11.7%) 26.205 (±1.9%) 145.76 (±0.6%)
385640 (±5.3%) Bulgaria6.90 (±6.2%) 40.338 (±2.7%) 181.42 (±2.0%)
383350 (±0.5%) Czechia4.21 (±3.6%) 15.340 (±1.7%) 104.06 (±0.3%)
367259 (±2.0%) Morocco4.21 (±6.1%) 20.135 (±4.7%) 104.10 (±1.3%)
3645624 (±34.7%) Kenya1.54 (±30.1%) 64.650 (±5.7%) 324.25 (±6.3%)
351333 (±0.5%) United Arab Emirates1.10 (±13.2%) 17.109 (±1.3%) 123.16 (±0.2%)
339405 (±8.4%) Bosnia and Herzegovina9.15 (±5.1%) 37.254 (±5.9%) 157.52 (±3.7%)
329329 (±0.2%) Finland5.23 (±2.7%) 12.743 (±0.9%) 110.56 (±0.1%)
301283 (±0.3%) Korea - South2.71 (±1.5%) 14.857 (±1.1%) 80.75 (±0.3%)
2842166 (±36.3%) Ethiopia0.30 (±178.4%) 46.638 (±7.6%) 263.63 (±6.2%)
255246 (±0.3%) Norway3.28 (±3.5%) 12.035 (±1.2%) 98.36 (±0.2%)
233141 (±1.7%) Australia - Oceania, Australia - Oceania2.44 (±2.5%) 15.481 (±5.5%) 100.68 (±1.2%)
215324 (±4.3%) Congo (Kinshasa)0.42 (±70.1%) 33.678 (±2.9%) 168.28 (±1.5%)
21216079544 (±638.2%) Kosovo8.95 (±10.0%) 114.752 (±26.7%) 688.77 (±36.2%)
209430 (±4.3%) Senegal0.28 (±203.0%) 36.078 (±1.9%) 197.74 (±1.1%)
206192 (±0.5%) Greece6.66 (±2.3%) 16.377 (±1.5%) 98.33 (±0.4%)
196166 (±0.8%) Alberta, Canada2.95 (±6.7%) 17.406 (±2.1%) 112.02 (±0.4%)
195185 (±0.5%) British Columbia, Canada8.14 (±3.0%) 18.066 (±1.2%) 106.92 (±0.3%)
182366 (±8.2%) Ghana1.08 (±28.3%) 36.862 (±3.8%) 194.92 (±2.2%)
174213 (±2.1%) Qatar0.01 (±2262.8%) 24.865 (±1.9%) 167.43 (±0.5%)
1694794881 (±270.6%) Venezuela1.71 (±70.7%) 107.041 (±12.6%) 636.26 (±16.8%)
1653370270 (±745.3%) Zambia9.57 (±5.3%) 81.518 (±36.3%) 508.45 (±44.1%)
165217 (±1.7%) Haiti2.48 (±7.8%) 27.473 (±1.4%) 170.07 (±0.4%)
1615029466 (±650.6%) Albania7.66 (±7.0%) 139.999 (±30.0%) 804.34 (±42.3%)
157158 (±0.5%) Mauritania2.57 (±8.8%) 15.131 (±1.0%) 160.08 (±0.1%)
1546863458 (±623.1%) Costa Rica6.34 (±14.8%) 74.502 (±27.4%) 483.60 (±32.3%)
147208 (±4.1%) Bahrain0.37 (±39.7%) 26.589 (±2.9%) 179.96 (±0.9%)
1475964465 (±494.0%) Uzbekistan3.15 (±7.2%) 98.384 (±22.0%) 598.69 (±28.7%)
145118 (±1.0%) Croatia6.24 (±3.7%) 16.415 (±2.8%) 110.72 (±0.6%)
125120 (±0.3%) Malaysia1.81 (±10.4%) 12.833 (±1.4%) 92.87 (±0.3%)
124131 (±0.6%) Mali6.43 (±4.0%) 21.051 (±1.1%) 134.93 (±0.2%)
1201928628 (±316.2%) Malawi3.14 (±47.4%) 76.326 (±15.7%) 482.27 (±18.6%)
119111 (±0.3%) Slovenia7.65 (±1.8%) 12.353 (±1.0%) 100.08 (±0.2%)
116126 (±1.9%) Nicaragua4.01 (±12.2%) 23.297 (±2.2%) 160.12 (±0.5%)
116111 (±0.2%) Luxembourg3.01 (±2.9%) 12.816 (±0.8%) 96.92 (±0.2%)
1072665497 (±278.0%) Madagascar2.46 (±89.0%) 88.230 (±13.2%) 543.12 (±16.5%)
102188 (±5.0%) Cote d'Ivoire2.08 (±9.0%) 38.644 (±2.6%) 184.49 (±1.7%)
9393 (±0.4%) Somalia4.13 (±5.6%) 16.245 (±1.1%) 125.18 (±0.2%)
8786 (±0.2%) Cuba4.10 (±1.8%) 12.297 (±0.8%) 108.24 (±0.1%)
80504 (±26.2%) Libya5.54 (±8.8%) 42.093 (±6.0%) 250.41 (±4.3%)
8080 (±0.5%) Lithuania5.26 (±3.6%) 18.850 (±1.4%) 109.62 (±0.3%)
7574 (±0.3%) Chad8.71 (±2.5%) 10.896 (±1.4%) 129.55 (±0.1%)
7512379 (±289.3%) Liberia6.47 (±16.8%) 105.118 (±29.1%) 525.37 (±39.2%)
6969 (±0.4%) Niger7.42 (±1.7%) 16.071 (±1.0%) 114.51 (±0.2%)
6969 (±0.3%) Estonia4.07 (±5.0%) 13.272 (±1.1%) 102.44 (±0.2%)
6765 (±0.9%) Sierra Leone4.49 (±4.4%) 16.975 (±2.1%) 134.66 (±0.3%)
6463 (±0.2%) Nova Scotia, Canada6.17 (±1.4%) 11.576 (±0.8%) 117.81 (±0.1%)
6164 (±12.7%) Lebanon5.17 (±4.6%) 42.616 (±10.1%) 135.52 (±8.6%)
6054 (±0.8%) Tajikistan1.73 (±12.1%) 10.073 (±3.6%) 131.43 (±0.3%)
5957 (±1.1%) Central African Republic0.89 (±49.2%) 10.997 (±3.1%) 170.64 (±0.2%)
5858 (±0.2%) Thailand1.77 (±7.3%) 9.807 (±0.8%) 95.40 (±0.1%)
5859 (±0.7%) Djibouti2.21 (±9.3%) 15.691 (±1.5%) 151.79 (±0.2%)
5662 (±3.8%) Nepal0.11 (±723.3%) 24.443 (±3.4%) 173.59 (±0.8%)
5491 (±5.6%) Congo (Brazzaville)5.31 (±12.6%) 36.434 (±3.3%) 175.14 (±1.9%)
5353 (±0.2%) Burkina Faso6.51 (±2.5%) 12.993 (±0.7%) 96.88 (±0.1%)
5252 (±0.3%) Andorra6.67 (±1.5%) 12.269 (±1.1%) 97.29 (±0.2%)
521943715 (±1000.0%) Paraguay2.61 (±11.2%) 146.006 (±44.8%) 840.54 (±63.5%)
5149 (±0.4%) Tunisia4.74 (±2.5%) 12.190 (±1.6%) 95.32 (±0.3%)
5049 (±0.4%) New South Wales, Australia1.46 (±7.3%) 14.559 (±1.3%) 98.60 (±0.3%)
503994455 (±1014.9%) Montenegro11.41 (±4.4%) 124.761 (±42.0%) 741.52 (±58.1%)
5057 (±2.1%) Gabon1.12 (±22.2%) 23.762 (±2.5%) 155.37 (±0.6%)
4847 (±0.3%) Channel Islands, United Kingdom8.59 (±0.8%) 11.133 (±1.5%) 106.21 (±0.2%)
4646 (±1.7%) South Sudan0.00 (±14141.7%) 16.683 (±3.3%) 157.73 (±0.4%)
4657 (±4.2%) Guinea1.47 (±14.3%) 32.274 (±3.6%) 154.37 (±1.6%)
4359 (±3.6%) French Guiana, France-1.74 (±90.2%) 19.779 (±3.0%) 188.82 (±0.5%)
43119100 (±233.2%) Eswatini4.31 (±14.4%) 82.775 (±14.4%) 491.64 (±17.5%)
4242 (±0.2%) San Marino6.60 (±2.6%) 10.542 (±1.1%) 81.79 (±0.2%)
3940 (±1.0%) Mayotte, France2.04 (±12.1%) 21.852 (±1.6%) 137.29 (±0.4%)
3654 (±5.6%) Benin3.42 (±33.3%) 25.373 (±3.8%) 185.54 (±1.0%)
3535 (±2.5%) Uruguay4.71 (±3.4%) 27.243 (±3.8%) 119.26 (±1.2%)
3231 (±0.8%) Latvia3.55 (±3.9%) 18.798 (±1.9%) 118.49 (±0.4%)
2928 (±0.2%) Slovakia2.25 (±6.1%) 9.429 (±1.2%) 109.62 (±0.1%)
2727 (±0.4%) Singapore0.12 (±253.6%) 17.217 (±1.1%) 107.29 (±0.2%)
2424 (±0.3%) Isle of Man, United Kingdom7.21 (±1.2%) 7.034 (±1.9%) 110.35 (±0.1%)
2222 (±0.2%) Henan, China1.86 (±3.5%) 5.516 (±1.5%) 42.12 (±0.3%)
2222 (±0.3%) New Zealand1.52 (±3.9%) 8.517 (±1.6%) 106.05 (±0.1%)
2024 (±7.1%) Guyana9.85 (±4.9%) 36.314 (±6.3%) 135.01 (±4.0%)
1916 (±1.3%) Togo4.01 (±9.7%) 19.902 (±3.1%) 112.69 (±0.7%)
1919 (±0.7%) Cyprus2.10 (±4.9%) 16.035 (±2.7%) 92.01 (±0.7%)
1729 (±13.5%) Maldives0.12 (±1171.4%) 37.922 (±7.5%) 183.47 (±4.4%)


For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted. The order of countries is by having its first case.
.·. Impressum