Corona virus info: statistics of Covid-19

On this site, I am collecting and analysing data of the recent corona virus outbreak by Covid-19. Data are retreived from the John Hoskins CSSE site.

Matters of exponential growth are barely understood by the public. An epidemic progresses by the natural growth laws that include the exponential function. Small numbers in the beginning may indicate a false security but can rise rather quickly to uncontrollable conditions. This almost every time causes a too late response. For everyone, for politicians, and decision makers this crucial information is very important to understand the needs of action and the preparation of required logistics. By fitting the data, the graphs contain an outline for the next days, a kind of corona virus forecast for several days.

As the graphic at the top indicates: the outbreak world wide without the data from China is at the moment on a purely exponential growth and is not showing any indications for slowing down. This means the world has the virus not under control. On the other hand, China is having good progress by its published data. Follow below the different sections.

Table of contents

Data sections

Quick summary of data analysis

Info sections

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Data sections

Data: World, China, World without China. Fits and Analysis. Forecast +30 days

Data by continental area. Fits and +10 days forecast.

Individual data of countries and locations. Fits and +10 days forecast.

Compare data from Ebola epidemic in 2014/2015.

Quick summary of data analyis

Just from the pure data analyis and the data fit results we can estimate, that the average recovery time is about 20 to 21 days. About 16-17% undergo severe illness. From my data, I assume the death reate is around 4%, because of the delay between diagnosis and death. So the deaths needs to be counted to the day of diagnosis. This delay is confirmed by the fits from the data. It is about 6 days, when conditions for some patients become very serious. Also the fitted Nmax values build a ratio of the same death rate of 4%. Over 80% will experience it as normal influenza, however, death rate of influenza is about 0.1% only.

Info sections

Why do we misjudge matters of exponential growth.

Maths used for fitting data on this site.

Dashboards of individual countries or regions

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