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COVID-19 Regional Numbers of Infected People

with Gompertz Function

For global summaries and overview, follow this link.

All the fits of the data of individual areas are created fully automatically. You may check on the graph (click on the image) if the fit has a sufficient quality, matching the data points as best as possible. There may be some cases, where by too unexpected real data, the fit is not giving a good forecast. So please use common sense to evaluate the data.

Locations or countries with not enough data points or other reasons are skipped and can be found in this list.

The table shows from the left: The maximum last cumulative number, the expected maximum number by fit, graph and location, the T2 also known as doubling time of the exponential growth, the day of turning point of the function.

The turning point is important, showing the turn from purely exponential growth to the process of fading out by limited number of victims.

In the middle of the graph is written the doubling time, that describes the time it needs to double the number of cases. This number is calculated using the logistic function and describes the growth before the turning point, where numbers rise quickly. In a simple picture, the T2 of the Gompertz function describes the later part and the doubling time of the logisitic the first part.

Color code on numbers of infected people: Below 30 , between 30 and 99, between 100 and 499, between 500 and 999, between 1000 and 4999, above 5000.

Color code on locations describe percentages of last number and expected Nmax: Above 95%, between 90% and 95%, between 80% and 89%, between 70% and 79%, between 60% and 69%, when number of cases is above 50 and Nmax is below 50% or the doubling time is below 3.5 days! Above 130%, a reoccurrence of an outbreak is indicated.

The location color code tells you, how well the Covid-19 outbreak has faded out and is under control (greenish). In red and magenta the areas are on fast rise in numbers. The color code in numbers tells you how severe the outbreak was in that region.

Applied maths is here explained.


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Actualisation date: Tue Apr 14 00:41:48 UTC 2020

Ncurrent Nmax (fit) cumulative location cases daily t2 (fit) dturning point (fit)
6826191849045 (±10.9%) US 11.912 (±6.2%) 105.35 (±1.6%)
170099217364 (±1.1%) Spain 7.269 (±1.6%) 88.92 (±0.2%)
159516201701 (±0.9%) Italy 9.413 (±1.3%) 84.99 (±0.2%)
136779322534 (±10.3%) France 11.508 (±7.2%) 100.47 (±1.7%)
130072174626 (±1.1%) Germany 7.949 (±1.5%) 89.44 (±0.2%)
88621304657 (±4.8%) United Kingdom 12.881 (±2.5%) 107.75 (±0.7%)
8321382332 (±0.4%) China total, China total 4.753 (±3.0%) 36.80 (±0.4%)
73303167370 (±8.5%) Iran 16.893 (±6.0%) 98.23 (±2.1%)
6780368277 (±0.5%) Hubei, China 4.412 (±3.6%) 37.81 (±0.5%)
61049201542 (±7.4%) Turkey 10.728 (±3.9%) 106.75 (±1.0%)
3058954664 (±3.0%) Belgium 9.708 (±2.6%) 96.38 (±0.5%)
2655145771 (±3.0%) Netherlands 10.606 (±2.6%) 95.07 (±0.5%)
2568830242 (±1.0%) Switzerland 7.021 (±1.8%) 85.47 (±0.2%)
2567949843 (±2.7%) Canada, Canada 9.211 (±2.2%) 98.41 (±0.4%)
23430118670 (±16.4%) Brazil 14.463 (±7.1%) 113.70 (±2.4%)
183289843065 (±36.2%) Russia 31.730 (±4.7%) 188.22 (±3.6%)
1693425913 (±3.0%) Portugal 8.154 (±3.1%) 93.84 (±0.4%)
1404115172 (±1.0%) Austria 5.311 (±2.4%) 84.37 (±0.1%)
1355723954 (±4.6%) Quebec, Canada 7.841 (±4.0%) 97.47 (±0.6%)
1158613931 (±1.7%) Israel 5.845 (±2.7%) 90.43 (±0.2%)
1094866734 (±13.2%) Sweden 22.180 (±5.2%) 122.45 (±2.7%)
10647323531 (±81.1%) Ireland 29.298 (±18.6%) 156.31 (±12.6%)
105379979 (±0.8%) Korea - South 5.151 (±3.9%) 60.99 (±0.3%)
10453169400 (±31.3%) India 17.954 (±8.6%) 130.49 (±4.0%)
9784453340446 (±605.8%) Peru 47.038 (±45.5%) 265.37 (±43.1%)
7529140256 (±120.2%) Ecuador 24.887 (±32.1%) 142.03 (±19.0%)
752516232 (±3.1%) Chile 10.567 (±2.3%) 99.86 (±0.5%)
747017647 (±6.2%) Ontario, Canada 9.856 (±4.2%) 101.68 (±0.9%)
7370801900812 (±629.2%) Japan 98.920 (±43.8%) 454.59 (±51.9%)
693418635 (±5.3%) Poland 12.013 (±3.3%) 103.40 (±0.8%)
663315763 (±5.1%) Romania 11.104 (±3.4%) 101.68 (±0.8%)
66038374 (±2.2%) Norway 8.882 (±3.2%) 84.34 (±0.4%)
631830826 (±26.7%) Denmark 21.666 (±11.8%) 117.35 (±5.8%)
60598348 (±1.9%) Czechia 7.992 (±2.4%) 90.08 (±0.3%)
549618119 (±14.3%) Pakistan 14.596 (±7.7%) 107.34 (±2.5%)
493480695 (±55.7%) Saudi Arabia 26.568 (±15.1%) 144.02 (±9.4%)
49326233 (±3.4%) Philippines 6.067 (±4.6%) 92.14 (±0.4%)
48176748 (±1.6%) Malaysia 9.816 (±1.8%) 89.07 (±0.3%)
4661171600 (±31.5%) Mexico 25.848 (±6.9%) 151.83 (±4.3%)
455746176 (±28.5%) Indonesia 23.178 (±9.0%) 132.41 (±5.0%)
452170862 (±30.7%) United Arab Emirates 18.305 (±8.6%) 130.56 (±4.0%)
405418593 (±15.4%) Serbia 13.749 (±6.8%) 112.46 (±2.2%)
340012846 (±13.3%) Panama 14.490 (±6.5%) 110.03 (±2.2%)
32923629 (±0.9%) Luxembourg 5.373 (±2.0%) 85.45 (±0.1%)
32316698379 (±542.8%) Qatar 61.718 (±59.1%) 285.06 (±60.5%)
31677197 (±10.7%) Dominican Republic 10.766 (±7.2%) 101.40 (±1.6%)
310233599 (±48.6%) Ukraine 17.619 (±15.1%) 126.34 (±6.7%)
30648982 (±8.9%) Finland 16.115 (±5.1%) 105.26 (±1.8%)
291952272 (±72.3%) Belarus 12.288 (±19.4%) 122.57 (±6.6%)
2918491937992 (±567.6%) Singapore 109.638 (±37.8%) 498.79 (±45.9%)
28633115 (±1.1%) New South Wales, Australia 4.672 (±2.8%) 85.25 (±0.1%)
285213142 (±18.9%) Colombia 15.389 (±8.5%) 112.86 (±3.1%)
25792999 (±1.4%) Thailand 6.140 (±2.6%) 86.47 (±0.2%)
22722284 (±3.7%) South Africa 5.220 (±7.9%) 86.15 (±0.5%)
22083339 (±4.1%) Argentina 8.375 (±4.2%) 93.68 (±0.6%)
219078877 (±41.0%) Egypt 34.304 (±9.1%) 166.93 (±6.8%)
21453160 (±3.1%) Greece 10.350 (±3.5%) 88.99 (±0.6%)
19833162 (±5.7%) Algeria 7.961 (±5.7%) 94.89 (±0.8%)
17633843 (±4.8%) Morocco 10.422 (±3.4%) 100.43 (±0.7%)
17322813 (±6.8%) Alberta, Canada 9.595 (±6.4%) 94.59 (±1.1%)
17126048 (±17.5%) Moldova 11.301 (±9.2%) 107.21 (±2.4%)
17112138 (±2.1%) Iceland 7.620 (±3.3%) 85.53 (±0.3%)
16502112 (±2.0%) Croatia 7.412 (±2.7%) 89.91 (±0.3%)
15551424 (±0.6%) Guangdong, China 4.258 (±4.6%) 31.70 (±0.7%)
14901606 (±1.4%) British Columbia, Canada 6.019 (±2.8%) 84.41 (±0.2%)
145822020 (±61.8%) Hungary 24.779 (±17.4%) 139.68 (±10.2%)
13783707 (±11.4%) Iraq 14.910 (±7.2%) 102.63 (±2.3%)
136190338 (±169.2%) Bahrain 57.700 (±31.8%) 226.29 (±31.6%)
13491600 (±1.3%) New Zealand 5.117 (±2.3%) 90.06 (±0.1%)
13322088 (±6.1%) Estonia 10.438 (±6.4%) 90.78 (±1.2%)
130047370171 (±750.8%) Kuwait 76.967 (±58.6%) 365.01 (±65.0%)
12811410 (±1.3%) Victoria, Australia 5.018 (±3.0%) 85.36 (±0.2%)
12761280 (±0.2%) Henan, China 3.594 (±1.4%) 32.35 (±0.2%)
12671232 (±0.2%) Zhejiang, China 3.413 (±2.1%) 30.56 (±0.3%)
12121616 (±2.9%) Slovenia 9.549 (±3.9%) 86.07 (±0.6%)
11483734 (±12.8%) Azerbaijan 11.514 (±7.1%) 106.16 (±1.8%)
10912098 (±12.8%) Kazakhstan 9.583 (±9.6%) 99.52 (±1.8%)
10621333 (±1.6%) Lithuania 6.421 (±2.3%) 89.80 (±0.2%)
10391415 (±4.0%) Armenia 7.882 (±5.1%) 90.34 (±0.6%)
10371957 (±5.1%) Bosnia and Herzegovina 9.954 (±4.2%) 97.30 (±0.8%)
10191023 (±0.2%) Hunan, China 3.515 (±1.4%) 31.58 (±0.2%)
1009318161393 (±1114.3%) Hong Kong, China 163.046 (±72.2%) 697.72 (±93.9%)
99896581 (±160.0%) Uzbekistan 27.674 (±28.3%) 164.91 (±19.0%)
991996 (±0.2%) Anhui, China 3.568 (±2.0%) 32.96 (±0.3%)
9871057 (±0.9%) Queensland, Australia 4.721 (±2.2%) 83.90 (±0.1%)
937941 (±0.2%) Jiangxi, China 3.395 (±1.8%) 32.85 (±0.2%)
8542086 (±8.1%) North Macedonia 12.575 (±5.3%) 102.05 (±1.4%)
820918 (±4.5%) Cameroon 3.147 (±10.3%) 92.44 (±0.3%)
8032575116 (±578.2%) Bangladesh 25.363 (±58.4%) 180.50 (±40.0%)
784782 (±0.7%) Shandong, China 6.554 (±3.7%) 35.16 (±0.7%)
7691948 (±14.8%) Slovakia 14.819 (±9.5%) 101.78 (±3.0%)
740510 (±1.3%) Heilongjiang, China 4.322 (±9.8%) 35.66 (±1.3%)
72764613834 (±409.0%) Oman 83.181 (±29.0%) 396.70 (±33.0%)
726848 (±2.2%) Tunisia 5.577 (±3.8%) 89.03 (±0.3%)
7264635 (±21.6%) Cuba 15.705 (±8.3%) 117.98 (±3.2%)
712714 (±0.5%) Diamond Princess 2.650 (±4.8%) 44.74 (±0.3%)
685924 (±2.1%) Bulgaria 8.695 (±2.6%) 88.67 (±0.4%)
6652247 (±13.5%) Afghanistan 13.110 (±7.0%) 108.03 (±2.1%)
6621358 (±9.3%) Cyprus 11.149 (±7.2%) 98.19 (±1.6%)
655788 (±1.5%) Latvia 6.900 (±2.4%) 87.11 (±0.2%)
653642 (±0.2%) Jiangsu, China 3.977 (±2.0%) 32.96 (±0.3%)
646746 (±1.8%) Andorra 6.189 (±3.1%) 87.60 (±0.2%)
632728 (±2.4%) Lebanon 7.588 (±4.4%) 82.68 (±0.4%)
6266319 (±62.3%) Cote d'Ivoire 19.611 (±19.9%) 127.90 (±9.5%)
618674 (±12.7%) Shanghai, China 28.100 (±20.9%) 45.27 (±12.7%)
612770 (±2.6%) Costa Rica 7.899 (±3.6%) 88.33 (±0.4%)
589581 (±2.6%) Beijing, China 13.679 (±8.7%) 35.42 (±2.6%)
579579 (±0.1%) Chongqing, China 4.132 (±1.2%) 30.63 (±0.2%)
56686989 (±442.9%) Ghana 38.956 (±71.9%) 195.33 (±59.0%)
560549 (±0.2%) Sichuan, China 4.969 (±1.3%) 32.25 (±0.2%)
529829 (±7.3%) Niger 4.411 (±7.9%) 98.21 (±0.5%)
517564 (±1.4%) Western Australia, Australia 5.051 (±3.2%) 85.36 (±0.2%)
497685 (±4.9%) Burkina Faso 8.053 (±5.9%) 90.92 (±0.7%)
494535 (±2.6%) Uruguay 5.834 (±5.2%) 84.98 (±0.4%)
4741329 (±14.3%) Nova Scotia, Canada 12.044 (±8.4%) 104.55 (±2.2%)
467745 (±5.9%) Albania 10.422 (±5.8%) 92.31 (±1.1%)
436646 (±5.9%) Channel Islands, United Kingdom 6.800 (±6.6%) 94.19 (±0.7%)
429448 (±1.0%) South Australia, Australia 3.775 (±3.2%) 83.98 (±0.1%)
4197247 (±89.4%) Kyrgyzstan 21.505 (±24.1%) 136.64 (±12.8%)
397537 (±4.9%) Honduras 5.974 (±6.5%) 92.81 (±0.6%)
393460 (±4.7%) Taiwan* 7.402 (±9.1%) 81.27 (±0.9%)
391411 (±1.4%) Jordan 5.123 (±3.5%) 83.76 (±0.2%)
391427 (±1.9%) Reunion, France 4.501 (±4.4%) 86.84 (±0.2%)
3841355 (±29.5%) Malta 18.129 (±15.3%) 109.65 (±6.2%)
356448 (±6.7%) San Marino 11.514 (±8.8%) 82.72 (±1.6%)
352318 (±0.8%) Fujian, China 4.823 (±6.2%) 30.72 (±1.1%)
343457 (±3.0%) Nigeria 6.731 (±3.7%) 92.35 (±0.4%)
3301845 (±33.5%) Bolivia 16.865 (±13.5%) 117.33 (±5.4%)
327323 (±0.3%) Hebei, China 4.568 (±2.4%) 33.99 (±0.4%)
324473 (±6.5%) Mauritius 7.011 (±7.8%) 92.76 (±0.8%)
319744 (±22.9%) Guinea 7.331 (±14.7%) 103.07 (±2.3%)
3081169 (±44.6%) West Bank and Gaza 18.397 (±22.4%) 110.78 (±9.3%)
300339 (±2.4%) Saskatchewan, Canada 5.393 (±4.6%) 87.68 (±0.3%)
298235588 (±445.4%) Djibouti 29.149 (±54.3%) 184.39 (±39.2%)
291359 (±2.6%) Senegal 7.572 (±3.8%) 87.89 (±0.4%)
28312338 (±622.3%) Kosovo 35.324 (±139.8%) 171.33 (±104.6%)
274363 (±7.2%) Montenegro 6.082 (±10.3%) 91.42 (±0.9%)
2722745 (±30.2%) Georgia 28.716 (±9.7%) 138.50 (±6.3%)
265343 (±5.1%) Vietnam 9.477 (±7.7%) 82.69 (±1.1%)
256250 (±0.2%) Shaanxi, China 3.882 (±1.8%) 31.34 (±0.3%)
254255 (±0.2%) Guangxi, China 4.551 (±1.4%) 31.28 (±0.2%)
246271 (±4.0%) Manitoba, Canada 3.964 (±8.8%) 89.96 (±0.4%)
244249 (±1.5%) Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada 3.285 (±4.8%) 87.01 (±0.2%)
242492 (±14.5%) Isle of Man, United Kingdom 8.489 (±11.1%) 99.64 (±1.8%)
235407 (±9.9%) Congo (Kinshasa) 9.249 (±8.9%) 95.68 (±1.5%)
217243 (±3.2%) Sri Lanka 7.749 (±5.3%) 83.85 (±0.6%)
208267 (±6.9%) Kenya 5.336 (±10.0%) 92.73 (±0.7%)
207267 (±3.9%) Mayotte, France 6.213 (±5.4%) 91.58 (±0.5%)
1901167 (±243.9%) Inner Mongolia, China 103.423 (±89.8%) 218.72 (±123.2%)
189191 (±1.9%) Venezuela 5.408 (±4.7%) 82.35 (±0.3%)
184178 (±0.3%) Yunnan, China 3.930 (±2.7%) 29.96 (±0.4%)
184160 (±1.7%) Tianjin, China 8.161 (±8.6%) 34.14 (±2.0%)
184187 (±0.7%) Faroe Islands, Denmark 3.494 (±3.1%) 79.19 (±0.1%)
173138 (±0.9%) Shanxi, China 3.720 (±7.9%) 31.64 (±1.1%)
168170 (±0.4%) Hainan, China 4.325 (±3.1%) 31.63 (±0.5%)
157176 (±3.1%) Martinique, France 5.136 (±7.3%) 84.51 (±0.4%)
156380339 (±546.8%) Guatemala 53.672 (±58.5%) 262.87 (±56.8%)
147147 (±0.4%) Guizhou, China 3.286 (±3.3%) 34.65 (±0.4%)
147223 (±6.3%) Paraguay 9.129 (±6.5%) 92.93 (±1.0%)
145131 (±0.7%) Liaoning, China 4.599 (±5.5%) 30.19 (±0.9%)
144294 (±20.8%) Tasmania, Australia 12.916 (±14.9%) 99.10 (±3.9%)
143154 (±2.5%) Guadeloupe, France 4.926 (±6.6%) 82.53 (±0.4%)
139141 (±2.2%) Gansu, China 12.028 (±7.8%) 36.24 (±2.1%)
137413 (±18.6%) El Salvador 10.363 (±10.6%) 105.31 (±2.4%)
136140 (±1.2%) Brunei 4.373 (±4.6%) 76.20 (±0.2%)
129148 (±2.7%) Gibraltar, United Kingdom 5.038 (±5.4%) 88.25 (±0.3%)
127142 (±2.8%) Rwanda 5.950 (±5.2%) 86.78 (±0.4%)
1238318 (±315.0%) Mali 27.799 (±60.6%) 162.18 (±40.2%)
122118 (±0.9%) Cambodia 2.944 (±4.2%) 78.98 (±0.2%)
116126 (±3.4%) New Brunswick, Canada 4.505 (±8.0%) 87.16 (±0.4%)
113114 (±2.8%) Trinidad and Tobago 4.090 (±8.9%) 82.57 (±0.4%)
106128 (±4.5%) Madagascar 5.536 (±7.3%) 90.50 (±0.5%)
103103 (±1.0%) Australian Capital Territory, Australia 3.076 (±3.9%) 84.19 (±0.1%)
10095 (±0.4%) Jilin, China 3.179 (±3.5%) 33.85 (±0.4%)
93122 (±3.4%) Monaco 7.595 (±4.6%) 88.96 (±0.5%)
92101 (±4.8%) Aruba, Netherlands 5.149 (±9.4%) 88.10 (±0.6%)
86206 (±18.0%) French Guiana, France 13.874 (±12.6%) 99.55 (±3.6%)
7981 (±2.0%) Liechtenstein 4.123 (±6.9%) 80.20 (±0.3%)
77193 (±26.8%) Togo 12.767 (±18.0%) 100.97 (±4.8%)
7677 (±0.5%) Xinjiang, China 4.392 (±3.5%) 34.51 (±0.5%)
7575 (±0.4%) Ningxia, China 4.927 (±2.6%) 33.27 (±0.4%)
74505 (±36.4%) Ethiopia 19.840 (±13.8%) 122.14 (±6.5%)
73129 (±12.2%) Jamaica 12.398 (±10.8%) 93.80 (±2.5%)
7295 (±6.6%) Barbados 6.959 (±9.1%) 90.09 (±0.9%)
5927390 (±484.5%) Liberia 25.167 (±65.2%) 169.68 (±42.7%)
5763 (±8.6%) Bermuda, United Kingdom 5.811 (±13.8%) 89.74 (±1.0%)
571913 (±167.1%) Gabon 26.090 (±37.6%) 151.37 (±23.6%)
5558 (±4.6%) French Polynesia, France 6.136 (±9.3%) 84.36 (±0.7%)
5455 (±1.6%) Uganda 2.710 (±6.1%) 86.40 (±0.2%)
5368 (±9.8%) Cayman Islands, United Kingdom 5.415 (±13.8%) 92.93 (±1.0%)
5063 (±7.5%) Sint Maarten, Netherlands 3.818 (±12.4%) 94.35 (±0.6%)
49579 (±303.0%) Tanzania 33.659 (±88.1%) 152.63 (±63.2%)
4792 (±14.1%) Bahamas 9.071 (±11.6%) 97.79 (±2.0%)
455903142 (±1742.0%) Macau, China 243.402 (±123.2%) 966.08 (±167.9%)
4541 (±1.4%) Zambia 1.827 (±7.8%) 85.74 (±0.2%)
4091 (±31.4%) Haiti 12.377 (±20.8%) 102.19 (±5.3%)
3852 (±14.5%) Guinea-Bissau 4.152 (±21.0%) 95.30 (±1.1%)
294945 (±410.5%) Sudan 40.667 (±63.6%) 202.17 (±53.6%)
2630 (±7.1%) Libya 4.156 (±13.0%) 92.25 (±0.6%)
2525 (±2.8%) Prince Edward Island, Canada 2.572 (±11.0%) 86.95 (±0.3%)
2020 (±4.0%) Maldives 6.755 (±13.7%) 71.76 (±0.9%)
1933 (±33.2%) Laos 9.937 (±31.6%) 95.81 (±5.3%)
1818 (±0.5%) Qinghai, China 2.624 (±5.0%) 29.16 (±0.5%)
18150564 (±955.2%) Belize 48.143 (±86.7%) 257.49 (±81.5%)
1818 (±1.5%) New Caledonia, France 2.081 (±8.2%) 82.31 (±0.2%)


For countries in this list, the number of infected people must be at minimum 13 people. In the list of numbers of a country, there must be at least 7 different numbers. The turning point is guessed by using half the maximum number and then looks for the first value above that value. If the turning point is at the last value, the fit is omitted. The order of countries is by having its first case.
.·. Impressum